Tag Archives: Betting

Sunday Selections – Brighton

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3.50 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Likely softish ground is an unknown for most in this field and could be a big issue for any of the three year olds. None of them makes much appeal from a handicapping point of view either, so I feel it’s worth to take a punt on bottom weight Trulee Scrumptious.

The six year old mare won with plenty in hand two starts ago at Newmarket. She has also form on soft ground and stays ten furlongs truly, which is at Brighton, particularly when there is some juice in the ground. She was poor in her last two starts and has to produced a career best – but may well do so with the possibility of getting a soft lead here.

Trulee Scrumptious @ 14/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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4.20 Brighton: Class 6 Handica , 1m 4f

The old boy Foxhaven is likely to encounter his preferred conditions tomorrow. 12f with a bit of cut in the ground will slow things down and ensure emphasis is on stamina in the finish. He didn’t have too much racing this season but wasn’t disgraced when last seen in June at Kempton.

He slipped another 2lb down the mark, though. With the 5lb claim of his rider, he could be seriously well handicapped if he can find back to something of his former best. Back in September 2014 he still managed to finish in the money of a mark off 68. So he’s a fair chance to go close in this race.

Foxhaven @ 14/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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5.20 Brighton: Class 5 Apprentice Handicap, 1m

Double Czech should be clear favourite here given that Queen Aggie, who currently heads the market, has never got this trip before and will find it tough to change this in softish confitions. Double Czech, though, will very much appreciate the underfoot conditions, though the trip is borderline at a testing track like Brighton.

However he is down to an excellent mark, 1lb below when he won a mile race at Chepstow earlier this year, plus has the handy 5lb allowance of a good apprentice in the saddle. He should go close.

Double Czech @ 9/2 William Hill – 5pts Win

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Sunday Selections: Pontefract

Gordon Lord Byron

What surprising feeling last night – 2 winners! Well, they are more consolation than anything else but nonetheless it’s always good to get some winners on the board. Hopefully a sign for better things to come? There is a great card at Pontefract, so let’s find some winners.

2.45 Pontefract: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 4f

Couple of interesting sorts in this competitive race. Favourite Almodovar makes appeal given that he is sure to appreciate the step up in trip when attempting to win three on the bounce. He may well defy his new mark here but is a very short prices considering the depth of the field.

Fellow “I’m on a hat-trick” More Mischief is an interesting alternative from the bottom of the weights. She looks a grinder and could appreciate the uphill finish. Her wide draw is a slight concern as well as it seems that she may need a bit of cut in the ground to be seen at her best, particularly stepping up in grade now.

The other three year old in the race, Keep In Line, is the most intriguing contender. He’s certainly very well bred and a full-brother to smart Kassiano. He won at Windsor the other day a shade cosily, and the 4lb rise for that effort could easily underestimate him. He has plenty of stamina but seems also speedy, so whatever way the race evolves, he should be equipped.

The wide draw is a concern though. However there aren’t too many in the race who’re likely to storm off to the front, so he may be able to overcome this. He has a very capable 3lb claimer in the saddle too. This horse is certainly overpriced.

Keep In Line @ 7/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

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3.45 Pontefract: Flying Fillies’ Stakes (Listed), 6f

Eddie Lynam won’t bring his classy filly Byzantium over for a nice day out. She has top credentials to win this Listed contast in fact. The three year old was desperately unlucky not to get up on the line in a hot little race at Laas the last time. Conditions will suit today perfectly, as she has a good draw and should appreciate the stiff uphill finish.

Byzantium @ 9/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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4.20 Pontefract: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 

Ultra competitive little Handicap – each and everyone of the six runners has legitimate claims. Therefore I feel La Dorotea is overpriced here given that she wasn’t disgraced in a really hot race at Chester the last time where she had to overcome a wide draw. She was highly tried in Listed class before which was beyond her, when following on from a good course and distance success here at Ponti. She’s only 2lb higher today but has an excellent 3lb claimer in the saddle.

La Dorotea @ 10/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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5.20 Pontefract: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Be Lucky is impossible to oppose here given she is 2/2 over coure and distance and only 3lb above her last winning mark. She has the pole position draw and the speed to move forward from there. A bold bid is expected and if she is in the same mood as the last time she was here, she’s very hard to beat.

Be Lucky @ 9/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Saturday Selections: Newbury

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3.10 Newbury: Class 3 Handicap, 7f

I don’t understand why Beach Bar is such a big price. This progressive gelding absolutely hammered a decent field on his penultimate start and was utterly unlucky the last time at Newmarket when he got stuck in traffic on the inside rail but stayed on very well late when in the clear.

That performance indicates he may can overcome his career highest mark. Today looks a good opportunity for a big run with the trip to suit and the soft ground no inconvinience, which can’t be said for all in this field.

Beach Bar @ 12/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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3.45 Newbury: Hungerford Stakes (Group 2), 7f

Here Comes When tops the list as the most likely winner. He hasn’t been disgraced in top class company this year and will thrive in these conditions. Same goes for last years winner Breton Rock, although this years renewal looks much stronger.

But from a price perspective I can’t leave Heavens Guest out. He may not be good enough at this level, but has been in outstanding form lately and deserves a go at this. He’ll love the soft ground and is a 7f specialist – he can go close.

Hugely underestimated seems to be That Is The Spirit. He also one who needs it soft and seems best suited to the 7f trip. He won a Listed race in excellent style earlier this year and has excuses for two hist last two poor showings.

That Is The Spirit @ 22/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
Heavens Guest @ 11/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Wednesday Selections: Man Of Harlech’s a Big Runner

Wet Dundalk Polytrack

8.40 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m

Favourite Up In Lights is potentially very well handicapped on his debut in this company, and the weight for age allowance is a clear bonus. He may well hack up. But I believe there is massive value on Man Of Harlech, who could be a very potent threat here.

This will be the third run after a long break, during which he was gelded. He clearly needed his first run but was quite unlucky the next time at Sandown when poorly positioned and a clear run denied. However he finished very strongly with seemingly plenty left in the tank.

He drops in grade now, and this potentially easier opposition should help him to defy top weight. He is very nicely bred and comes from a family that does exceptionally well on the All-Weather. So the switch to this surface can be only in his favour today. At 9/2 he is an excellent alternative to the rather shortish favourite in my mind.

Man Of Harlech @ 9/2 Coral – 5pts Win

Betting: Saturday Selections

Legatissimo

Been some tough few days but Malabar steered the ship back into the right direction. Her 10/1 win was badly needed but as always in racing, one big winner, and you’re back in the game. Last day of Glorious Goodwood today – hopefully ending it on a high note.

2.35 Goodwood: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 4f

I like the profile of Melodious here. This progressive filly is beautifully bred for 12f and showed excellent improvement this year. She should come into her own with time so may have not shown her best yet. Unlucky to be piped on the line at Newbury the other day, she tries this trip only for the second time and remains on a fairly decent mark.

Melodious @ 12/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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3.10 Goodwood: Nassau Stakes (Group 1), 1m 2f

Burned my fingers in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh when Diamondsandrubies held on to win against Legatissimo. I believe the Wachman filly can turn the table today. She had a tactical disadvantage at the Curragh and is the better filly of the pair.

I was inclined to leave this race as it is, as there are some other good fillies in the field too with French Oaks winner Star Of Seville or English Oaks third Lady of Dubai. But Legatissimo is now available at 5/2, which I didn’t expect and deem as too big.

Legatissimo @ 5/2 Betfred – 10pts Win

Friday Selections: Goodwood & Galway

Newmarket Rowley Mile tight finish

2.35 Goodwood: Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3)

Bold entry from Mick Channon to send his classy filly Malabar into the race. But then, there are good reasons for it. Goodwood is the place of her biggest triumph, when she landed a Group 3 here last year. Since then she contested at the highest level against top class opposition while performing consistently well. She is however a filly who runs consistently into trouble as well.

She was unlucky in a handful of her starts, most recently in the Irish 1000 Guineas and subsequently the Prix De Diane. She drops markedly in class today and I believe that should make all the difference. She just doesn’t have quite the high cruising speed or change of gear you need at Group 1 level.

But down in Group 3 class, she should be a major player in this wide open race. Visors fitted may help her to stay focused until the race is over as she often travelles well but seem to lack sharpness when it really matters. Negative is De Sousa who just can’t ride Goodwood. But it’s worth the risk as Malabar strikes me as a filly with a massive chance.

Malabar @ 10/1 Sportinbet – 5pts Win

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3.10 Goodwood: Betfred Mile Handicap, 1m

This should be an incredibly close race and I feel Ocean Tempest is very much overlooked. He hasn’t really excelled at Meydan and seemed to feel this tough campaign on his UK comeback in the Lincoln. Back from a break now, he is finally dropped to a realistic mark again in a grade where he belongs.

He has the draw to get into a positive position right from the start here, which should suit. He may not get an easy lead, but tracking it would work too. Off 105 he must certainly enter calculations if back in form, given he won off ten pounds higher last year.

Ocean Tempest @ 33/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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4.20 Goodwood: Nursery, Class 2, 6f

Richard Fahey’s filly Zahrat Narjis makes plenty of appeal here on her Nursery debut. She is very well bred, by a sire who gets often excellent 2 year olds, out of a Group 3 winning dam. She showed promise in all her three maidens and now switched to this company should help her. She could easily be better than her opening mark off 72.

Zahrat Narjis @ 12/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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6.50 Galway: Guinness Handicap, 1m 4f

Dermot Weld’s Show Court went close in this last year when runner-up off a 2lb higher mark. He travelled strongly but maybe hit the front a bit too early. 12f seems his absolute limit stamina wise and the same scenario could very well happen today again – but at 7/1 I’m rather on him, given that he appears to be well handicapped now.

Show Court @ 7/1 Betfed – 5pts Win

Tuesday Selections

Leicester Racecourse home straight

2.50 Redcar: Maiden Handicap (Class 6)

Normally this type of race wouldn’t be my cup of coffee. Too much guesswork required who is in it to win and who uses it as a public gallop. This Maiden Handicap is pretty poor, it’s simply the nature of the race. Some lightly raced individuals with low opening marks take dramatic step ups in trip and may well improve for it. Dew Pond is one who jumps out in that regard.

But it is the horse at the head of the weights who clearly is the most intriguing runner. The Cashel Man hasn’t shown allot as a juvenile in Maidens last year. But gelded over the winter, which often works wonders for High Chaparral’s and particularly for trainer David Simcock, he may leave those forms behind, now going handicapping for the first time.

Not only that, but The Cashel Man also takes a dramatic step up in trip, which on pedigree should suit very well and see him improving a good deal. He is a full-brother to decent Handicapper Thunder Pass, who took a similar route last year and improved from maidens to handicaps when stepping up in trip.

An opening mark of 63 is stiff enough for what The Cashel Man has shown so far, but this poor race represents an ideal opportunity to get off the mark with conditions very much to suit him.

The Cashel Man @ 5/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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8.00 Ballinrobe: Beginners Chase. 2m 1f

A rare trip to the jumps for me in the middle of the flat season. The reason is A Sizing Network. A lightly raced five year old who makes his chasing debut today. I have been waiting for this for a while, basically since he got off the mark in a maiden hurdle back in November. A Sizing Network was always going to be a chaser. He jumps big and bold and has the frame to be one.

It didn’t quite work out over hurdles for him, though he performed with credit in two of his three subsequent starts. He got beaten on the line in a handicap hurdle last month at Punchestown, when he made a big move maybe a bit too early and also seemed to idle in front after jumping the last. His only poor showing, leaving the debut out, came at Leopardstown over 2m 4f in soft conditions.

Two miles on good ground seems ideal and I imagine he can leave his hurdling form easily behind over fences. There should be plenty of improvement to come from this fresh, young individual. He has probably a bit to too find with the other market principles on pure form and ratings, but should be easily capable of doing so.

A Sizing Network @ 9/2 Bet365 – 5pts Win