Tag Archives: Betting

Stat of the Day

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0 – Despite being one the top sires in producing winners in sprint handicaps at Brighton over the last number of years, Pastoral Pursuit is not quite enjoying a successful season with his offspring this year.

Zero winners at Brighton in total to this date this year, however a 100% place rate over six furlongs could mean hope isn’t lost yet, given he enjoyed a near 29% strike rate the seasons before.

Can he bounce back today? Two runners for him at Brighton: Pursuit Of Time the one I find most interesting. Dropped in trip significantly, with blinkers and tongue tie applied for the first time.

Monday Selections:

2.00 Brighton: Mystic Dawn @ 7/1 Racebets
2.30 Brighton: Pursuit Of Time @ 20/1 Ladbrokes

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Stat of the Day

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22 – If you would have backed every son and daughter of the great Fastnet Rock over the 12 furlong trip at Wolverhampton with one euro each this year, you’d have made a healthy profit of €22! That equates for an impressive 71% strike rate.

It’s not an overly massive sample size, nonetheless potentially significant, given 86% of his runners placed too.

Fastnet Rock offspring generally tends to perform extremely well on Wolverhampton’s tapeta surface, though the 1m 2f success rate is clearly eye-popping. So watch out for his runners.

Friday Selections:

7.50 Wolverhampton: Fastnet Blast @ 11/2 Skybet
8.50 Wolverhampton: Berkeley Vale @ 7/1 Bet365

Photo: The Australian

Thursday Selections

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An 8/1 winner, a second, a third and a fourth…. Wednesday wasn’t a bad day, though could easily have been a great one. Put Curriculum in your tracker. He could have finished mush closer than 4th and wasn’t killed with another day clearly looming large.

Also Fleeting Dream is rather obviously up to win a race sooner rather than later and got a not particularly well timed ride – though the handicapper may have seen the potential too by now.

So what’s on the menu today? Not much, I have to say. Two selections nonetheless, although not that confident ones.

7.30 Newcastle: Dream Team @ 20/1 Betfred

The odds-on favourite might be hard to beat but I take a chance on Michael Dods colt who did show little on his debut but now switches to the All-Weather which should very much suit on pedigree. Worth a chance today.

8.25 Sandown: Fidelma Moon @ 7/2 Coral

This horse is quite consistent, running well this year most of the time, without quite cracking it. Will go up in the weights in the future for a recent runner-up effort and should go close here today once more.

The trainer & jockey combo of Burke/Vaughan enjoys quite some success when they team up at Sandown and it looks significant that the young rider goes there for only this one ride.

The race looks open, with the three year old’s surely having a good crack at it, particularly feather weight Cooperess looks interesting, though didn’t look like winning in a similar race off an even lower weight the other day.

Wednesday’s Summer Racing

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The summer is firmly on and this blog is dawdling along… time, where is the time? Today is a bit of time. My increasingly statics based approach to betting does slowly but steadily reap benefits. So I used the free minutes this morning to dig out some interesting horses for today’s racing.

But despite this being the time of the year for horses proving their worthiness on the holy green turf, the ‘charm’ of sand racing is never far away. Kempton offers some bread and butter material today. I like it.

I might update this post later on in the afternoon with one or more contenders… so keep coming back if interested….

7.10 Kempton: Curriculum @ 4/1 Ladbrokes

Very interesting contender for William Haggas who has a 42% strike rate this season in Kempton maiden races and a 70%+ place strike rate over the last five years here in this type of races – so one would assume Curriculum is reasonably fit going to post today.

The gelding showed promise in soft conditions at Doncaster last year and is open to a significant amount of improvement over this longer trip.

8.20 Yarmouth: Fleeting Dream @ 2/1 Ladbrokes

This rather well bred three year old filly of Dream Ahead should be very hard to beat on her handicap debut, dropping down to five furlongs which is very likely to suit down to the grounds.

Haggas seems to find always the right opportunities for this type of horse and while Fleeting Dream didn’t show much in three maiden races, she showed plenty of speed the last time in a hot race. Her opening mark of 56 could be lenient.

3.30 Bath: Forecaster 11/8 Betfred

This looks seemingly a wide open race but closer inspection shows this is an excellent opportunity for 3yo Forecaster. The slight step up in trip should bring out further improvement after two subsequent placed efforts this season. First time cheekpieces can be a big help too.

Michael Bell has a near 50% strike rate this year and consistently over time with his horses tried in this type of headgear. I suspect Forecaster will be able to find enough improvement to beat this very ordinary lot today.

4.00 Bath: Hope Is High @ 8/1 Coral

She improved dramatically from her maidens last month on her handicap debut at Yarmouth, though got a bit a rough ride. Once in the clear she ran on strongly to finish an unlikely looking runner-up. There is more to come and a 2lb hike in the mark isn’t enough to stop her to go close. I believe the slower ground will her here.

Jockey booking is interesting, as the Gordon/Berry combo has proved very successful this year, albeit the sample size is on the small side. Still, her 3lb allowance look significant given the 60% strike rate these two enjoy.

Tuesday Selections: Catterick

Newmarket Rowley Mile tight finish

1.10 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 4f

You can discount half of the field on ground concerns pretty easily, and given the nature of the track, usually favouring handy sorts, it brings the list of contenders down to a handful.

I like to go with a type likely to act in the soft conditions, has form on this strange course and is sure to be up with the pace. Multellie jumps out in this field at 9/1, given he has excellent form to offer, if we forgive him his latest run at Chester from a wide draw in better class.

Down here in class 4, he has a handy draw, won really well at Ripon three back, and confirmed his well-being subsequently with another bold bid here at Cattrick over 12f in a very hot race. He’s on a high mark but with conditions sure to suit he’s overpriced in this field.

Multellie @ 9/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

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2.15 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Plenty in with a chance here but I’m very much drawn to Woody Bay who drops back to his preferred 7f trip as well as in class and looks still on a pretty good mark. He won here over CD last month in excellent style, beating two well handicapped rivals in second and third. He followed up with a strong performance in a hot Class 2 Handicap subsequently, but was found out for the 9f trip when last seen.

With his course and distance form and the soft ground sure to suit, as well as recent forms all franked, he is a likely sort to go close and certainly overpriced. Only concern is the wide draw obviously. He will need to overcome it somehow. If he can get a good break and is right up with the pace early on he will have a great chance.

That’s the obvious question mark as the race may be already lost after the start. I’m prepared to take the risk as even that factored into the price doesn’t justify 8’s in my mind.

Woody Bay @ 8/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

Saturday Betting: Cheltenham

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Nice drift for Dark Spirit today, who won nicely at 11/1 in the end, storming up the hill for her inexperienced rider in the saddle. A relieve, a nice, big winner – finally again! It didn’t continue that way. Drumlee Sunset finished only 2nd. He was beaten for speed in the end.

2.10 Cheltenham: Class 2 Handicap Chase, 2m

Question marks surrounding most of this field, but I do really like Going Concern for the in-form Evan Williams yard. a progressive sort last season over fences, he has won three of his last six starts. He has to defy a career highest mark and was disappointing when last seen in April, but has done well off a break in the past.

Conditions should suit down to the grounds, with the rain expected over Cheltenham tomorrow not having to be an inconvenience

Going Concern @ 11/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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4.30 Cheltenham: Class 2 Novice Chase, 2m 4f

I was initially very much drawn towards Parlour Games. The classy Novice hurdler left a lasting impression but whether this flat bred gelding can take to chasing is very much up in the air. Also I had the perception that he is best on a flat track and that Cheltenham doesn’t quite suit.

As the value alternative I really like Double Shuffle though. Bred to be a chaser, he is still lightly raced, was progressive last year, has form in an Irish point to point and will love the trip. He has only won at flat tracks yet, so Cheltenham is very much an unknown. But with the low weight he makes appeal.

Double Shuffle @ 12/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

Tuesday Selections

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2.20 Windsor: Class 5 Nursery, 6f

Recently gelded and with first time cheek-pieces I feel Another Boy deserves another chance. He drops in class as well has been given a chance by the handicapper after a couple of decent, albeit far from exciting performances. He third placed effort in a three runner race lto doesn’t look exciting at all. though it came against two pretty decent rivals and the form looks good. The race wasn’t run to suit him, yet he stayed on to be beaten only two lengths after all.

A return to a bigger field should help. And if the gelding op and headgear have any sort of positive effect, he should go close today – although the draw isn’t the kindest. He seems a bit overpriced nonetheless.

Another Boy @ 12/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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8.40 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 1f 103y

Horrible race with not much recent form on offer. However Vastly makes plenty of appeal here, dropping in class and stepping up in trip after two very respectable efforts on the All-Weather over 1m. The gelding didn’t appear to like Chelmsford lto and was badly outpaced, though was game and genuine in the closing stages in a race that looks not too shabby on paper in terms of how the form has worked out since.

Vastly has won over course and distance in the past, albeit pre-tapeta times. He’s done that in February 2014 of a mark off 68, had since then only four more starts, the last two respectable, as mentioned. He’s 6lb lower rated at the moment, so that gives him an excellent chance in this field to find back to form.

A decent 3b claimer has been booked for the ride, which adds to the arguments pro Vastly here. If he can only improve slightly for the last two outings and the trip, he’s gonna go very close.

Vastly @ 9/2 William Hill – 5pts Win