3.10 Dundalk: 4yo+ Handicap, 1m
An unusual one for me: I rarely bet Irish races, certainly not Dundalk. I struggle to trust the form, the races can be chaotic and these usually full fields throw up odd results.
But Iva Feeling has everything going for herself, stepping up to a mile as I hoped she would eventually, and is still a huge price on the exchanges (smarkets especially) – this looks such a superb opportunity tomorrow, everything speaks in her favour, nothing against backing a mare at Dundalk, other than backing a mare at Dundalk…
Anyway, the mare was a huge eyecatcher in early October over 7 furlongs at Dundalk:
That day she missed the break from the widest draw, was right away at massive disadvantage and travelled in rear, also quite wide. She but made excellent progress gradually entering the home straight to finish best from those off the pace.
She is still a quite lightly raced mare for her age with some scope on the sand, especially back over a mile. She is also on a pretty good handicap mark now as her last three runs are prove. She ran better than the bare form at Curragh in her final turf start; she caught the eye at Dundalk and Leopardstown in spring. Her most recent effort over 7 furlongs again was also quite strong.
She started much better, but kept fighting hard to keep up with the pace and not losing position. She ran strongly to the line, achieved a good speed rating and once again looked like she could appreciate a return to a mile.
She never had the chance to tackle a mile off such a low mark. She is drawn in #4, and has the assistance of a good 5lb claimer in the saddle. As much as these races can feel like a lottery sometimes, she looks ready to rock.
10pts win – Iva Feeling @ 6/1
4.25 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
May Remain finally drops to 6 furlongs again. It was about time. The last number of runs over 7 furlongs he ran his heart out and performed with plenty of credit in the circumstances, but the trip was literally a furlong too far, as evidence when last seen once again last time out.
Hasn’t looked a winner waiting to happen since joining Ivan Furtado
Obviously the RP analyst and myself have seen different races because for the last four or five runs I thought May Remain looks definitely a winner waiting to happen with the right trip.
He has fallen to a career lowest mark as a consequence. Off 54, over a more adequate trip – all of May Remain’s 6 career wins came over the minimum trip or 6 furlongs – he must be a huge runner in this field.
The one concern is the pace scenario. There could ne too much competition for early speed. His #6 draw isn’t ideal either. But not many appear well handicapped at all, and some may resist the urge to move forward this time.
It’s a gamble, to some extend hope, that he can find quickly a good spot tracking the likely leader in Jupiter Express. he may be caught wide, too, if things go badly.
But I am prepared to go risk, feel he is so well handicapped over this trip.
10pts win – May Remain @ 11/1
7.15 Southwell: Classified Stakes, 6f
Shocking race. But longshot Northern Chancer caught the eye on his handicap debut and is stepping up to 6 furlongs, which should suit, being completely unexposed.
Last time at Newcastle over the minimum trip, he was a tiny step slow off the gate, before quickly moving forward against the stands’ side to lead. He was fastest over first half of the race, setting quite a strong gallop that compared well to other sprint races on the card, contested by older horses.
He appeared to be hanging throughout, though, which is a concern, and faded badly in the last two furlongs. perhaps he was just green and raw, and have learned from this run.
It was his comeback run since August and Handicap debut. He was gelded in the meantime. That may help, so will the step up in trip. I think he showed enough to suggest he can win a poor race. Also: his family tends to do well on All-Weather.
10pts win – Northern Chancer @ 11.5/1