Tag Archives: Handicap

Thursday Selection: December, 5th 2019

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7.00 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Honey Gg is quite obviously the horse to beat and with little else really appealing from a handicapping perspective she appears overpriced.

She was probably unlucky last time out over course and distance when going clear of the majority of the field in higher grade, but bumping into a really well handicapped winner eventually. I don’t see this danger today as she also drops down to class 6.

Only a pound up for the runner-up effort, Honey Gg is closely rated to her best, given she ran to TS 63 when winning here earlier this year, however she also posted a 67 career best topspeed over this CD later on spring. So off OR 63 she offers still a bit of value.

Having David Nolan on board again is a bonus as he rides the minim trip on the fibresand really well.

Selection:
10pts win – Honey Gg @ 7/2 MB

Saturday Selections: November, 30th 2019

Kilimanjaro goes clear

1.05 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

As suggested yesterday in my Dundalk preview, Aloysius Lilius found it difficult to make it in to the race as a reserve, but he would eventually rock up 24h later at Lingfield. So here we are, the three-year-old is running today.

What held true merely a day ago is still very much the case today – however it has to be said this class 5 Handicap is probably more competitive than the Dundalk race last night. On the other hand, as competitive as it appears on the surface, most fancied runners fall away when checking whether they are well handicapped. Aloysius Lilius remains a proper chance, though:

Aloysius Lilius dropped to a tasty handicap mark but can’t be really faulted given he ran some fine races this year on turf when going close on a couple of occasions over the minimum trip.

His first attempt to tackle the All-Weather was highly promising  at Dundalk a fortnight ago. A wide draw was a big disadvantage and receiving a heavy bump right after the start didn’t do him any favours. This was a wild race, he was at the back of the field and didn’t receive the clearest of runs, but finished strongly on the outside in the final furlong.

He stays on the same 66 OR. Interesting: Aloysius Lilius ran twice to 67+ topspeed in his career, including in his penultimate run. So with a much better draw here, and potentially enjoying the step up to 6 furlongs (he’s a half-brother to a 6f winner on the All-Weather).

Aloysius Lilius dropped to a tasty handicap mark but can’t be really faulted given he ran some fine races this year on turf when going close on a couple of occasions over the minimum trip.

His first attempt to tackle the All-Weather was highly promising here at Dundalk a fortnight ago. A wide draw was a big disadvantage and receiving a heavy bump right after the start didn’t do him any favours. This was a wild race, he was at the back of the field and didn’t receive the clearest of runs, but finished strongly on the outside in the final furlong.

He stays on the same 66 OR. Interesting: Aloysius Lilius ran twice to 67+ topspeed in his career, including in his penultimate run. So with a much better draw here, and potentially enjoying the step up to 6 furlongs (he’s a half-brother to a 6f winner on the All-Weather).

Selection:
10pts win – Aloysius Lilius @ 7/1 MB

……….

1.40 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Favourite Papa Delta has an impressive record and is likely to run his race, having every chance to win, but he is handicapped to his best form at the same time.

On the other hand The Lacemaker has been pretty consistent the last while, having also ran to topspeed ratings of 59 and 56 in her last four starts but gets a fair chance by the handicapper nonetheless.

Down to a mark of 56 now, she came damn close only seven days ago at this venue, albeit over 7 furlongs, where she tired only inside the final 200 yards after having done a lot from a wide draw, cutting across, leading and setting decent fractions.

Coming down in trip again in a smaller field, off her current mark with those recent performances in the book that are confirmed by the clock, The Lacemaker is clearly handicapped to win today.

Seletion:
10pts win – The Lacemaker @ 6/1 MB

Friday Selection: November, 29th 2019

Dundalk All-Weather

6.45 Dundalk: Handicap, 6 furlongs

Currently a reserve, so remains to be seen whether he actually gets in, Aloysius Lilius looks a highly competitive chance in this field if he would get a chance to run. Noteworthy he also got an entry for Lingfield on Saturday.

Aloysius Lilius dropped to a tasty handicap mark but can’t be really faulted given he ran some fine races this year on turf when going close on a couple of occasions over the minimum trip.

His first attempt to tackle the All-Weather was highly promising here at Dundalk a fortnight ago. A wide draw was a big disadvantage and receiving a heavy bump right after the start didn’t do him any favours. This was a wild race, he was at the back of the field and didn’t receive the clearest of runs, but finished strongly on the outside in the final furlong.

He stays on the same 66 OR. Interesting: Aloysius Lilius ran twice to 67+ topspeed in his career, including in his penultimate run. So with a much better draw here, and potentially enjoying the step up to 6 furlongs (he’s a half-brother to a 6f winner on the All-Weather) I feel there is a strong case for this 3-year-old having a major chance if getting in.

Otherwise, Lingfield one day later may well be another opportunity and you’ll read about it here.

Selection:
10pts win – Aloysius Lilius @ 28/1 MB

Monday Selections: November, 25th 2019

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6.30 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Navarra Princess returns from a break hence it remains to be seen how fit she is today. On the other hand she can’t fall lower in the ratings and given as low as she is (even though running 1lb OOW) she has potentially a better chance than prices suggest to go close.

Interestingly she has an entry for later this week also (“quickfire double?”). Most compelling is the fact she returns to the preferred 7 furlong trip as we as to Chelmsford, where the filly has achieved a career best topspeed rating in the past. She also ran four times to higher TS than her 46 mark she’s racing off today.

The draw isn’t a positive here but was is the return of headgear: Navarra Princess  performed really well with a tongue tie in the past (six from eight in the money) which appears to be a significant addition today after it was left off before her break.

Selection:
10pts win – Navarra Princess @ 13/1 MB

………..

7.00 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

The likes of Griggy and Invisible Storm are of high interest here, but another filly in the name of Valley Belle appears to have found a superb opportunity to find back to the winning ways.

The 3-year-old is a course and distance winner as her sole career success came here twelve months ago of a 3lb lower mark. I believe she is potentially well handicapped tonight, not necessarily on the basis of that piece of form but the fact she second time up after a break and has fallen to a 52 official rating now.

Valley Belle three best performances on the clock all come here over this CD where she has run to topspeed 54 and 57 (2x). With a low draw to play and attack from tonight I feel she has a massive chance if in the mood, granted she has plenty of miles on the clock for 3-year-old April foal.

Selection:
10pts win – Valley Belle @ 12.5/1 MB

Wednesday Selections: November, 20th 2019

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7.40 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 3f

This really isn’t a strong race hence a long-shot can upset the market. Pempie is the one I quite like, even though there are obvious negatives as well.

Those are: you have to trust a combination of second run since a wind OP and off a break see him finding back some form. Also he will need to start much better than when dwelling on his recent Kempton run. That performance over a mile included, since his Salisbury victory in May Pempie has regressed.

On the other hand, the 3-year-old is still lightly raced, has clearly had issues which may have been rectified with the wind OP, he will strip fitter for the comeback run and will respond positively to the first time tongue tie today.

Also the step up in trip looks clearly in his favour, so is the drop of 2lb in his handicap mark, bringing him down to a rating of 69.

When winning at Salisbury in May Pempie won of a 71 handicap mark and also ran to a topspeed rating of 71, suggesting he could be handicapped to go close today. As a full-brother to Sky Eagle, a two times All-Weather winner over 12 furlongs, currently rated 82.

Selection:
10pts win – Pempie @ 19/1 MB

Friday Selection: November, 15th 2019

Postulation

8.45 Dundalk: Handicap, 6 furlongs

Quite an interesting contest and I like nearly a handful, in fact, though, most of them I decide to monitor today and hope the handicapper might be lenient so they become hot property next time.

The one I do fancy today to run really well is Comhghairdeas. The gelding has fallen to an Official Rating of 47 now, after starting year on a 24lb higher handicap mark. He was largely well beaten throughout the season, albeit showed a little bit of hope when 5th at Listowel in December and sixth here at Dundalk in his most recent start.

It is also noteworthy Comhghairdeas achieved a 51 topspeed rating at Limerick back in June, on what his second run after coming off a near year long break. Before that break he was highly competitive of marks in the 70’s up to winning off 80. And he ran eleven times to topspeed 51+ in his career.

So if any life is left in Comhghairdeas then he could be handicapped to go close today, particularly as he drops down to 6f, which is a more suitable distance than the 7f from last month.

That most recent performance is a much better one than the bare form suggests, though. Comhghairdeas  finished sixth, 5 lengths beaten in a competitive race – the form has been franked in the meantime. He travelled really well for long, didn’t quite get the clearest of runs in the closing stages but more likely also didn’t quite get home over the 7 furlong trip.

Now another 2lb lower, down to a more suitable trip, a fair 7lb claimer on board and decent draw to play with, I feel Comhghairdeas can outrun his price tag, that is already coming down significantly anyway.

Selection:
10pts win – Comhghairdeas @ 17/1 WH

 

Saturday Selection: November, 9th 2019

Wet Dundalk Polytrack

6.40 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Dropping significantly in his handicap mark, with first time visor applied, Ower Fly is an intriguing contender. The 6 furlong trip is certainly no issue, questions are more about the fibresand and whether he still has the appetite to race.

I would argue having been dropped 4lb for the latest Newcastle effort, a fair 5th place where he dwelled yet moved soon to the front, travelled well for long enough and ran on gamely to the line, Ower Fly has been given a significant opportunity by the handicapper.

In act the six-year-old is down a whopping 25 pounds since the start of the year. Which shows he hasn’t been at his best in 2019, and a wind surgery didn’t seem to help either.

So there is significant risk attached to him. Further to this he didn’t seem to start quite as enthusiastically in his latest races, however wasn’t helped at the penultimate race when heavily bumped early on. On the other hand there were glimmers of hope, as the most recent performances showed as did a solid 5th place at Ascot in the summer.

Ower Fly has achieved a topspeed rating of 63+ on 14 occasions throughout his career, on both turf and the All-Weather. With that in mind there clearly is a fair chance that if rejuvinated by the switch to fibresand and visor, he can run a massive race in this poor field.

He can also be beaten soon after the start. A wider than ideal draw, if he dwells again and struggles to take to the surface, he’s gone after two furlongs. I’m prepared to take the risk.

Selection:
10pts win – Ower Fly @ 10/1 MB