Tag Archives: Handicap

Wednesday Selections: October, 17th 2018

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5.05 Bath: Class 5 Handicap, 1m3½f

The form that Doctor Knox has produced in three starts looks underappreciated as he steps into handicap company for the first time. Both his final start as a juvenile and most recent performance in a Novice race at Kempton are way better than the bare form suggests, in my mind.

Both times he was a long way beaten, however in front of him a few excellent individual, and those forms work out quite well. On his comeback run last month Doctor Knox made a bold move from a wide draw right from the start to challenge for the lead.

He paid the price for it behind two superior horses that where also up with the pace. The eventual winner has franked the form with a credible effort in Listed company already, and the runner-up was behind high class performers in previous starts also.

Doctor Knox kept going, though, and held on for third place. Now in his first handicap, a mark of 70 looks potentially underestimating him.

Selection:
10pts win – Doctor Knox @ 9/1 MB

……..

7.15 Newcastle: Class 6 Nursery, 6f

Gainsborough Hat looks a likely improver on his first handicap start. He didn’t set the world alight in three starts so far, but an opening mark off 64 doesn’t look too far fetched given he is well bred.

The son of Exceed And Excel should be well suited to the All-Weather as his sire has an excellent record on the sand, particularly over sprint distances, plus he is out of a Listed placed and All-Weather winning mare.

Selection:
10pts win – Gainsborough Hat @ 9/1 MB

Sunday Selections: October, 14th, 2018

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4.55 Goodwood: Class 3 Handicap, 6f

The Daley Express is already a course and distance winner and will enjoy any bit of additional rain falling between now and off time. He’s won well earlier this year off a similar handicap mark at Bath over 5.5f, granted not a race that looks particularly strong judged by subsequent form.

Nonetheless, the four year old gelding ran well in defeat on numerous occasions in the aftermath – without troubling the judges, it has to be said, though.

However, slowly he drops down to a decent mark now. Franny Norton is in the saddle; he’s boosting a 26.3% strike rate when riding for trainer Ronald Harris.

In a race where little stands out, The Daley Express looks one of the more likely sorts to put his nose in front today. With conditions to suit a big run is expected.

Selection:
10pts win – The Daley Express @ 14/1 PP

Tuesday Selections: October, 9th 2018

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1.20 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 5.5f

The usual fast ground at Brighton even in October – this makes it an ideal opportunity for CD winner Archimedes, who landed a similar race this summer on similar ground.

You can draw a line through his last run, also here at Brighton, when he missed completely the break as the hood was removed too late, or so it seemed.

Archimedes is on his hast last winning mark, he 59 rating he’s won of here in early July. He ran well enough in defeat in his subsequent handful of starts and with ideal conditions remains one of the more likely win candidates in this race.

Selection: 
10pts win – Archimedes @ 12/1 PP

………..

2.25 Brighton: Class 5 Nursery, 7f

Handicap debutant Red Armour makes plenty of appeal thanks to a workable opening mark and handy 3lb claim from an apprentice in the saddle, but I feel Nayslayer is the one who clearly underestimated here.

Both in terms of value for his most recent win as well the price on offer – Nayslayer ran a handful of fine races in defeat, before getting off the mark at Chelmsford over 6f last month. That was a strong race, and even though he had an absolute featherweight to shoulder, previous forms proved he is well up to the grade.

That last day he held on strongly, running all the way to the line and beyond, giving the impression and additional furlong may not be the issue. Only a 4lb hike in the mark, this doesn’t look a stronger race and he should be home on turf much the same way.

Selection:
10pts win – Nayslayer @ 6/1 Coral

Saturday Selections: October, 6th 2018

Wet Dundalk Polytrack

7.45 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 9.5f

When a long-standing maiden heads the market you know it got to be a poor race. This is, indeed, as poor as it gets. Perfect regarding conditions I’m looking for, as handicap debutant Boston Party ticks a lot of boxes to make him a decent chance to improve enough to be competitive compared to what he’s shown in three starts to date.

You can draw a line under those performances; it was handicapping for him all day long and he wasn’t beaten up in any of his races. However, stepping up in trip is interesting, particularly on his All-Weather debut – both look suitable on pedigree.

The opening mark is stiff enough, however from a top draw in a poor race as this he can overcome it. Sire Declaration Of War has an outstanding record with three-year-old colts on the sand to date, so this is clearly noteworthy.

Selection:
10pts win – Boston Party @ 6/1 PP

Thursday Selections: October, 4th 2018

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5.35 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

The top weight is the one to beat in my book, despite his “patchy record” over the last weeks. Fact is Roundabout Magic has a proven track record here at Lingfield, particularly over the minimum trip and has achieved twice a TS rating off 67 this season, suggesting he is well up to his current mark off 66.

He’s been racing in better races lately, so dropping back into class 6 is a hint in itself. The last time he raced as low as this he won over CD back in February.

Roundabout Magic has a good draw to ensure he’s close to the pace in case this becomes a muddling affair. It’s a slight concern that he was slowly into stride lto, though this wasn’t a habit in the past, so here’s hoping it was only “Once Off”.

Jockey Nicky Mackay has only this single ride today and he has a pretty decent record for trainer Simon Daw in these type of races and has also won on Roundabout Magic already.

Selection:
10pts win – Roundabout Magic @ 7/2 WH

Tuesday Selections: October, 2nd 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

3.45 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

See You remains a maiden after 13 starts so not too much confidence can be placed in the gelding. But the fact he’s got the perfect draw to replicate tactics from his most recent run is interesting.

Third at Beverly last months attempting to make all and setting a frantic pace under an inexperienced rider, he was caught late. Dropping down to 7f again should suit. A 2lb hike in the mark remains a dangerous mark in my mind.

A repeat of that type of performance may well be enough to win this race today. Here’s hoping David Allan makes use of the good draw, indeed.

Selection:
10pts win – See You @ 9/1 PP

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5.45 Kempton: Class 7 Handicap, 5f

The lowest grade and a truly shocking race. Nonetheless, the still lightly raced Broughton Excels offers some promise for improvement. He showed glimpses of ability when fifth on his seasonal- and new yard debut last month at Wolverhampton when not ideally placed at the back of the field.

This late may foal should improve with time, hopefully – so dropping into a poor race stripping fitter for his latest run is interesting.

Drawn perfectly for the 5f trip at Kempton, Broughton Excels has a big chance of a career lowest mark, granted he can get the break right, which as been an issue in the past.

Selection:
10pts win – Broughton Excels @ 13/2 MB

Monday Selections: October, 1st 2018

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5.45 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

This looks like an ideal opportunity for N Over J with top man Jim Crowley on board. The bottom weight has shown to act on the All-Weather already and is here on a tasty mark. He needs a bit of in-running luck, but from a top draw I imagine an aggressive ride to settle close to the pace.

His form is clearly good enough to win this. He’s been a shade unlucky at Epsom two races back what was a stronger contest than this and a repeat of his CD runner-up effort from earlier this year should see N Over J go very close indeed, again.

Selection:
10pts win – N Over J @ 4.9/1 MB

……..

6.00 Bath: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Silverturnstogold has been good in two starts for his new yard. That’s no surprise to see this three-year-old improve toward the end of the season, given he was a late May foal you can probably draw a line under most of his nine career runs.

He came agonizingly close on his penultimate start to finally get the head in front when edged out close to the line, his latest run was solid, though not exciting, and in saying that it is clear he needs to improve at least a little bit.

Time and age might be what brings out the improvement. Surely this is a race he can win today, regardless. His form is good enough judged on the last two runs and this is a rather uncompetitive affair. Top jockey on board is an added bonus.

Selection:
10pts win – Silverturnstogold @ 5/1 WH