Tag Archives: Sunday

Sunday Selections: 31st July 2022

1.20 Munich: Group 1 Grosser Dallmayr-Preis, 1m 2f

Intriguing Group 1 action in Germany today as we see the return of Derby hero Sammarco.

As tight as the outcome of the Derby was, I always felt he was the best horse on the day. I am a huge fan of this son of Camelot and backed him to win at Hamburg.

The step up in trip was clearly in his favour, and I maintain that – if connections would go down the route – he could have a legitimate shot in an Arc this year.

Saying that, dropping in distance to 10 furlongs does the opposite to my excitement about Sammarco’s chances – at least today. This doesn’t look the deepest Group 1 and class may prevail, yet the drop in distance doesn’t do him any favours I reckon.

It makes perfect sense to get a Group 1 over 10 furlongs on board for a future stallion career. He probably find many better opportunities than this. Though, simply from a betting perspective I can’t back him today.

The French mare Ebaiyra is the favourite and quite a short price. She sets a very good standard thanks to her close 3rd place in the Dahlia Stakes back in May. She has tons of strong form in Group races to her name, although winning at the top level has eluded her so far.

Today looks an ideal opportunity to rectify this. The good to soft ground suits, the trip fine and she comes here in fine form after a recent Listed success at Chantilly that will put her spot on.

I still think she’s a little bit too short in the betting. Clearly a consistent mare, she’s no superstar and is potentially vulnerable to an improving sort.

The Andreas Schütz trained Dawn Intello is another well-seasoned performer at Group level. Consistent and solid are words to describe him. If the market principles falter he’ll be bang there, though he always looked a bit short of class to land a major one.

Last years fine Unio-Rennen winner Best Of Lips doesn’t appear to be quite the same horse this season. Rubaiyat may not quite stay 10 furlongs well enough against this strong level of opposition. Amazing Grace will only feature if they go a crazy pace.

Leaves Andreas’s Wöhler’s Queroyal, who fits the bill of a possible improver. The 3-year- old colt is still lightly raced and unexposed over ten furlongs. After a light juvenile campaign he won a 7.5f contest at Mülheim on seasonal reappearance before stepping up significantly in distance when landing the Derby-Trial at Baden-Baden in convincing fashion.

He kicked on as the field entered the home turn and never looked back, always holding, seemingly a shade cosily, the opposition. Connections were not surprised afterwards, saying they thought he’d be a smart prospect.

Although not the likeliest to stay the Derby trip, Queroyal was supplemented for the Hamburg Classic. He travelled strongly for a long time that day, but from a high draw he was forced to wide for the entirety of the race and travelled significantly farther than Sammarco, who had a perfect trip on the inside in contrast.

Queroyal flattened out in the final two furlongs, hanging badly in the home straight and eventually wandering around, clearly at the limit of his stamina. Nonetheless he was only 3 lengths beaten in the end.

The drop in trip is key today. Whether he is truly a Group 1 horse remains to be seen. The Derby-Trial form hasn’t worked out particularly well. But he looked a class above the opposition in any case and should be capable of improvement for his sixth career start and only second attempt over 10 furlongs. In my book he is significantly overpriced in this field.

A live stream for Munich can be found on Youtube.

10pts win – Queroyal @ 12/1

Sunday Selections: 3rd July 2022

Before talking about two selections for Ayr (a comprehensive preview of the German Derby is available here too) I have to talk about the result of the 2022 Durban July.

My selections didn’t ran badly, especially 30/1 shot Airways Law produced a huge performance from the back off the field finishing 6th against a slow pace.

But nobody in the race stood a chance against super filly Sparkling Water. Largely, that must be said, because all other jockeys were outridden by brilliant S’manga Khumalo, who maximised the chance of his mount by doing absolutely everything right.

Obviously he’s got a bit of history in the race. Khumalo is a legitimate word-class jockey. He must have studied the pace scenario really well and had a match plan that was executed to perfection. A slow pace was always likely to happen and that would significantly hamper the chances of those at the back of the field.

Sparkling Water was drawn in #12. Not ideal but not a big problem either. Khumalo pushed the filly out of the gates and crossed over towards the inside rail in an instant. The race was only a few seconds old but the winning move was already done.

From there on Sparkling Water travelled smoothly, always handy, with a clear passage, and Khumalo, knowing the filly stays all day and night, committed as soon as they reached the home straight. Two furlongs from home he called on everything and the filly responded. Once she hit the front she wasn’t for catching. It was beautiful to watch.

The master that is Mike De Kock was sweet on Sparkling Water’s chances all week. He told everyone who dared to ask. Quite how she could go off 16/1 is a mystery. She was more than half the price only a few days earlier.

I didn’t spot this large drift either. But I also didn’t rate her chances. In my mind she was a stayer. Too slow in this field of top-class 10 furlong horses in a race that was sure to be run at a pedestrian pace. I didn’t account for the magic S’manga Khumalo produced in the saddle on the day.

Safe Passage didn’t have the best of trips. He’s better than that but also tired late and probably doesn’t want to go beyond 10 furlongs ideally. Jet Dark ran a massive race in 2nd. Ridden like a non-stayer, he saw it out strong from off the pace.

Two-times champion Do It Again ran his usual strong race. Last years winner Kommetdieding also finished with plenty of credit in 5th place off a big weight. Under WFA terms, wherever he goes next, he’ll be once again the horse to beat.

Linebacker encountered a miserable trip. Heavily bumped early on, he got hampered turning for home again. Pomp And Power was backed into favouritism, pulled his chances away as expected.

In summary: I didn’t back the winner but hugely enjoyed the build-up to the July and it was an entertaining race as well. The Durban July is one of my favourite races of the entire year. it proved it all again in 2022.

………..

4.37 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

This looks like a matchup between Lituus and and Acoustic on paper. The Grant Tuer horse may improve for the trip after an encouraging recent effort, but doesn’t appear generously handicapped on balance.

Acoustic in contract off 49 may well be. He’s yet to run particularly fast, a best topspeed of 46 is nothing to shout about. But he looks sure to improve for the additional furlong, having nearly gotten back to the eventual winner over the slightly shorter 9 furlongs at Hamilton the last time.

He was right up with the pace from the start, came under pressure from over three furlongs out, but kept going. Headed 1.5 furlongs from home, you would have expected him to fade away, but instead he rallied back strongly in the final furlong.

Acoustic clearly has every chance to stay 10 furlongs anyway, given he is out of a Singspiel mare. He also appears to be in fine shape, having been an eyecatcher two back at Weatherby when completely messing up at the start in first time blinkers.

10pts win – Acoustic @ 5/1

……..

5.12 Ayr: Classified Stakes, 1m

I like both Bankawi and Hello Power. Both caught my eye the last times, although Hello Power on more occasions. The WFA weight swing tips the balance to the filly, who has drifted a bit to a price that’s too big now.

The three-year-old is still quite unexposed on turf but show clear signs of acting on the surface when impressing in the middle section of her recent Doncaster run. She faded into third but only because she was asked way too much too early.

This significant change of gear she showed there hints a bit of talent, though, at least on this modest level. I quite liked her gutsy Southwell victory earlier in the year and thought she was a bit unlucky not finish closer last time out at Wolverhampton.

The fact she got going again after hampered over 1 furlong out proves her nice attitude.

The question mark is whether she can stretch out over a mile. Her pedigree gives her a chance. The way she finishes her races too. I doubt there’ll be a mad pace on, which will help. Although I hope they won’t drop her in and race settle in midfield not too far off the pace.

10pts win Hello Power @ 7/2

German Derby 2022 Preview

2.45 Hamburg: Group 1 German Derby, 1m 4f

The 2022 edition of the German Derby looks an excellent renewal on paper. As German horses have outran their odds on the international stage for a number of years, there is no secret in saying today could be a pointer towards a future Arc winner.

It’s even more exciting as smart filly Wagnis takes on the colts. She was a sensational winner of the Diane Trial over 10 furlongs at Hamburg four weeks ago. She has the assistance of Holly Doyle today. That shows clear intent as does the fact connections go for the Derby.

The way she won the Group 3 Diane Trial was seriously impressive. She produced a lovely turn of foot to come from the back of the field. She is bred to stay the Derby trip and will be a big runner, if she can get a run.

Drawn in #20 is a huge issue at the tight, turning Hamburg course, though. She will have to come from a long way back and that is a tough assignment.

Talking intent, perhaps even more so represents the booking Frankie Dettori. Schlenderhan has been confident So Moonstruck is the real deal for a while and having the big race jockey in the saddle can only be a positive.

He’s drawn in #10. That’s a workable gate, with So Moonstruck expected to go forward. He’ll be in a good position turning for home and is likely to improve from his recent runner-up effort in the Derby Trial at Cologne, should get the trip and should enjoy the decent ground.

The son of former German Derby winner Sea The Moon has been beaten twice this season already, though, albeit on softish ground. He’s one for the shortlist but I struggle to see why he’s the favourite, personally.

Slightly under the radar flies Bavarian Classic winner Lavello. He won handsomely at Munich and was a good third in the Group 2 Prix Hocquart at Longchamp back in May.

He is another one you would think will improve for the trip as a son of Zarak and out of a Montjou mare, plus possibly will enjoy the better ground as well. He’s got a good draw and looks overpriced.

Ardakan is a multiple Group winner already. He landed the Derby Italiano when last seen in May. He showed serious guts and just got there in the nick of time over the 11 furlongs contest.

He is all stamina, not unusual for a German horse, and will love the additional furlong today. Drawn wide isn’t ideal but expect him to close down the leaders coming with a late charge.

Assistent from gate #1 is a compelling each-way shot with Cieren Fallon in the saddle. A listed winner at Hannover over 12 furlongs, he’s is sure to appreciate the trip and has proven to act on decent ground.

Richard Kingscote makes the trip to Hamburg to ride German 1.000 Guineas runner-up Mylady. She has a good draw but may struggle to see out the Derby distance.

The only German female jockey Sybille Vogt in the Derby sits on a live chance with recent Listed winner Nerik, a son of Epsom Derby winner Ruler Of The World, also bred to get the trip and with untapped potential.

German top jockey Eddie Pedroza has the ride on Queroyal, a winner of a Derby Trial at Baden. 10 furlongs may be more his trip, but he can’t be underestimated if he stays.

That brings me to the one I fancied for a while for the German Derby: Sammarco. This lightly raced son of Camelot was learning on the job in all his three lifetime runs. He looked raw and green but improving all the time.

Only one start as a juvenile, he won over 7.5 furlongs. He made his three-year-old debut in the hot Bavarian Classic when things didn’t go his way. He caught the eye with an impressive late finish as a runner-up behind Lavello.

Next stop was the Derby Trial at Munich. he battled it out with So Moonstruck, who got first run. Sammarco found plenty and seemed to relish the fight in the closing stages to win by a head.

He clearly is progressive, has tons of untapped potential, will stay the trip, can go forward from his low draw to be right where you want to be at Hamburg when turning for home and looks potentially the real deal.

This 2022 edition of the German Derby is clearly a highly competitive one. Nonetheless, Sammarco is the one I am siding with at a bigger price than I would have anticipated today.

10pts win – Sammarco @ 11/2

Sunday Selections: 26th June 2022

5.25 Curragh: Maiden Stakes, 1m 2f

The Aiden O’Brien trained favourite Cougar is unlikely to be anywhere near pattern class, and that throws the race wide open. No doubt I am seriously interested in Active Duty, trained by Ger Lyons – a huge eye-catcher on his racecourse debut back in March.

This son of the brilliant Almanzor saw plenty of support in the betting market on that day, although, he was always likely to play second fiddle behind odds-on favourite Stone Age, who was a couple of months later a highly fancied contender in the Epsom Derby.

Stone Age won from the front giving the form a really solid look, while Active Duty settled well in rear for the majority of the race. Still trailing at the end of the field when turning for home, he soon started to make a big move on the outside once asked for serious effort. Despite showing clear signs of inexperience, he finished the race in impressive style under a hands and heels ride, producing a thunder turn of foot.

Active Duty was an expensive £260k yearling. Right now it doesn’t look like he can live up to this lofty price tag. But he was an April foal, which means it’s a fair possibility he can improve significantly with time and experiencee.

Not to forget this will only be his third career start. For that he drops back to 10 furlongs after a rather disappointing 5th place finish at Navan over 1 mile 5 furlongs. He made a promising looking move from the back of the field swinging around the wide outside turning for home, but the effort petered out. He didn’t appear to stay the trip. That form has worked out rather well already.

The drop in distance should suit I reckon. On pedigree 10 furlongs seem to be the ideal trip. Nonetheless the question mark is why connections felt the need to run him over the longer trip already on his second career start. Perhaps he lacks natural speed.

Although, judged on his debut effort, he seems to possess a turn of foot. Back then he also ran to topspeed 73. Which is pretty solid for a debut performance.

In any case it’s too early to give up on him. This is a winnable race for him. and he looks overpriced.

10pts win – Active Duty @ 6.6

………..

2.35 Greyville: KZN Breeders Mile, 1m

Nexus stands out as a major chance over in Greyville today in a race he should be touching odds-on in my book. He is the only one that combines class, course and distance form and should enjoy the solid pace that I expect to be set here. He also tops the speed ratings by a country mile in these conditions in this field.

He didn’t set the world alight on his return over shorter but the race developed up front anyways and he was always likely to come on. He’s weighted to win this as the second highest rated horse behind top-class sprinter Battle Force who I reckon won’t see out the trip.

Obviously all eyes will be on former champion jockey Piere Strydom who makes his return on Nexus before his ride in the Durban July next Saturday. His fitness is a slight question mark, but on the other hand I’m sure Nexus will be primed to give the champ a taste for victory today.

This wouldn’t be my race and price normally. But with so many question marks about pretty much everyone else in this field, and Nexus having fitness assured, going well on this track, over his ideal distance with the weights in his favours, can’t pass it.

10pts win – Nexus @ 2/1

Sunday Selections: 12th June 2022

2.40 Salisbury: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Meydan Rose looked potentially smart when winning a maiden comfortably last summer. She followed up with an excellent run behind a subsequent Group 3 placed filly. She was badly outpaced over 6f on her final start on fast ground but finished much the strongest indicating she wants to go up in trip.

This chance came earlier this month on her seasonal reappearance. That day she was bumped at the start, as a consequence lit up and seriously keen early on. Yet she travelled strongly approaching two furlongs from home, chasing the lead, but also a bit tight for room, had to be switched to the outside and produced a nice change of gear while doing so.

She didn’t find enough and slightly flattened out, beaten for pace by the early leaders who enjoyed an advantage from the front. She was also entitled to tire for her seasonal debut and the early keenness.

This was a strong 3-year-old debut for the filly. The 7f trip isn’t a problem on the evidence of that run. She looks to have plenty more to offer of a mark off 73. Slight concerns over track and trip given a wide draw but I feel this is an easier race than last time and she is probably well handicapped. It’s David Eagan’s only ride too.

10pts win – Meydan Rose @ 9.4

…………..

5.35 Salisbury: Class 6 Handicap, 12f

Eddie The Beagle ran much better than a 66/1 shot last month at Leicester on his seasonal reappearance. He was outpaced early on, had to be niggled in the early parts of the race as the raced in the rea of the field.

He found his feet eventually and looked to be going okay in the home straight, poised for a challenge three furlongs out, when the door shut multiple times and he couldn’t get a run until very late. Finished strongly with second fastest final furlong split despite not being asked for full effort.

That was his seasonal reappearance. He was seriously eye-catching over a mile at Kempton last November too., although he was always likely to improve for age, experience and certainly a trip.

The step up to to 12 furlongs should be key to unlock improvement. His dam won over 1m 4f for the same yard, in fact. I feel he is potentially well handicapped today and can get off the mark in a winnable race.

10pts win – Eddie The Beagle @ 8.2

Sunday Selections: January, 19th 2020

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

12.50 Lingfield: Class 6 Apprentice Handicap, 1m 6f

Favourite Wanaasah won under an enterprising ride in sensational style recently here at Wolverhampton over a few furlongs longer. She should go well again, albeit, under a 5lb penalty and with most likely not given an uncontested lead things will be more difficult.

I am interested in Mark Johnston’s Grenadier Guard. Clearly a talented individual; clearly one with quirks who’s gone wrong at the same time.

He is tried in a visor for the first time today. I am not pinning solely my hope on that piece of headgear, but it may well help the gelding to focus better. I am inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt that he needed his last two runs after a break potentially; certainly a first start at Southwell is always something to forgive.

He drops down to a mile and six furlongs, which looks a more suitable trip. At the same time Grenadier Guard continues to fall in the mark. He showed promise last summer on turf when running to some good level of form, winning at Haydock and following up with a fine 2nd in a competitive Novices race.

That day he also ran to a 85 topspeed rating which looks believable. Hence there is a bit of talent that is better than a January class 5 Handicap at Wolverhampton. I take the risk and give Grenadier Guard another chance to live somewhat up to last summers promise.

Selection:
10pts win – Grenadier Guard @ 10.5/1 MB