Tag Archives: Saturday

Saturday Selections II: September, 21st 2019

Wet Dundalk Polytrack

6.20 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

I might rue my decision in the end, because I strongly feel that Consequences is most likely a well-handicapped individual. He’s ran to higher topspeed than his current mark, he did so, in fact, when last seen at Chelmsford when nothing more could have gone wrong for him. Untouched by the handicapper, he has a massive chance if things fall right for him.

However, he is an individual who seems to draw misfortune. Hence at prices I go with the other I fancy nearly as strongly, who also appears to be potentially “well in”: Tathmeen.

Whether 6 furlongs is truly his trip is still kind of a question to be answered. Given he is 1 from 8 over the trip (the one win is incredibly poor form) and has won more races over the minimum trip. But on the other hand his career best speed ratings came over 6 furlongs.

Down to a mark of 72 now, Tathmeen has ran to TS 76 on the AW and 79 on turf in the past. A career best on the All-Weather was achieved back in February at this track, albeit over 5 furlongs, when he ran out a strong victory, form that is highly credible and he did so of his current 72 OR.

Fine 3 lb claimer William Cox is on board. With a few horses already out, the draw that looked pretty bad initially doesn’t look quite as challenging any more.

Selection:
10pts win – Tathmeen @ 11/1 MB

 

Advertisements

Saturday Selections: September, 21st 2019

DSC_1062

I may add more selections later on for Newmarket and Wolverhampton, but with this race I am keen on approaching fast, here on short notice the first selection of the day:

3.00 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 6f

This is a prime opportunity for Mister Chiang who stays the trip, having won on fast ground over 1m 6f at Bath earlier this season and having performed with plenty of credit in a good All-Weather handicap over this trip when last season.

His success at Bath is key form: fast ground, as today, he ran off 1lb lower than today but crucially achieved a 78 topspeed.

With a good draw he should be able to be where it matters most at this track and this type of race, and as little else makes any appeal here, Mister Chiang looks hard to beat if he runs to form.

Selection:
10pts win – Mister Chiang @ 10/3 MB

Saturday Selections: September, 7th 2019

10688350_649432425170918_6663673941854678786_o

5.00 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 3f

Very few of these have shown any form to shout about, but the one that seems undervalued in the market is the filly Inclyne – likely undervalued given her slightly more exposed profile.

However she is rather unexposed on the All-Weather, after only one start to date, one she won easily last time out here at Kempton over 12 furlongs.

Granted, that was not an overly strong contest, and the pace was slow as well, but the way she quickened and put matters to bed in the final two furlongs as easy as you like was impressive.

It was a performance that I liked particularly in the context of her Nottingham 3rd place, 3/4 of lengths beaten only in a very hot contest that worked out incredibly strongly in the meantime; proving that was probably true form for her to run to such a level.

Interestingly, despite the fact it was not an overly strong race, Inclyne achieved an 82 topspeed rating last months here at Kempton. That’s pretty decent for this grade as well and no other horse in the field has achieved it yet. Inclyne can run of a 78 handicap mark today, so she may have a bit in hand, actually.

I don’t think the drop in trip is an issue. I can see a well run 11 furlongs to suit. The draw is wider than ideal. But that’s the risk worth to take.

Selection:
10pts win –Inclyne @ 5/1 MB

……….

5.05 Ascot: Class 3 Handicap, 5f

His price continues to drop, and that is not only because of the N/R, I feel: Koditime appears to be incredibly well handicapped having his preferred conditions today, dropping further in the weights as well as in grade.

Only once the 4-year-old raced below class 2 level (apart from maiden company of course) and that was fantastic victory at York over the minimum trip on fast ground last year. Koditime ran to topspeed 93 that day and followed up with another strong runner-up performance at Windsor subsequently, achieving a 95 TS rating.

He was found out in higher grade and has gone backward ever since, despite the use of various headgear. He started this season of a mark of 94 and ran pretty damn well when only two lengths beaten on his seasonal reappearance at York. But he hasn’t kicked on from there which has resulted in his dramatic fall in the handicap mark down to 84 now!

Maybe he lost the appetite for racing, but if there is anything left in him, given he hinted to have retained some ability earlier this season, then he has a massive chance to win today.

Selection:
10pts win – Koditime @ 11.5/1 MB

…….

5.25 Thirsk: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 4f

Connections seem to have found a prime opportunity for Aiya to score finally on turf today. This race isn’t all that strong, albeit it is a class 3 Handicap and the gelding remains a turf maiden, so confidence has to be seen in that context.

But the 4-year-old was a little bit unlucky not get his head in front on grass yet, because he got close at Redcar when beaten by a neck. He hasn’t quite followed up, however, as a result has fallen to a sexy handicap mark of 76.

He ran to topspeed 80 in that mentioned Redcar race and clocked 77 on the All-Weather in the past – so with conditions likely to suit it is easy to why money is coming for this lad.

The trip is the question mark. Yes he has won over 1m 4f already, but it certainly stretches him, particularly if he is keen in the early stages of a race which he has shown more than once in the past. So stepping up from 10 furlongs to 12 furlongs that will be the delicate job David Allen in the saddle to figure out how to manage, as he also has to deal with a less than ideal draw.

Regardless, overall at given prices Aiya is an intriguing runner here.

Selection:
10pts win – Aiya @ 10/1 MB

Saturday Selections: August, 31st 2019

20150411_113220

5.15 Wolverhampton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 4f

State Of Affair is a fair favourite here, no doubt. With more improvement to come and having run to topspeed close to his current mark he may well be hard to beat. But he is a short price and has to prove he can translate the same sort of form the the sand.

Proven All-Weather performer Ice Canyon looks dramatically overpriced here, though. He has his third start for a new yard and the hood is back on – which is a definite positive.

His debut for trainer Kevin Frost was pretty decent in a hot contest at Chester earlier this month that looks strong form, even more so given he came off a break.

Returning to a course and distance Ice Canyon has produced an AW career best this winter, when an agonisingly close second of mark of 68, running to topspeed 70 then.

Now 3lb lower than that day, with the hood back on, probably race fit and only a single pound above his last winning mark, he looks potentially well handicapped in a field where not many make any appeal.

Selection:
10pts win – Ice Canyon @ 21/1 MB

Saturday Selections: August, 24th 2019

DSC_1084

5.50 Windsor: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

If you feel the favourite can be beaten here you’re suddenly not with much left. That is an ideal scenario for Iconic Knight, who may look in the grip of the handicapper on first glance, although a second look will reveal an excellent chance.

The 4-year-old gelding finished an excellent runner-up in a big field at York recently. A run to to that sort of form will see him go close. More interested I am in his Goodwood 3rd in June, though. That form worked out tremendously well which gives merit to Iconic Knight’s 80 topspeed finish that day.

He is already a Windsor winner, albeit over 5 furlongs. That piece of form from last year looks strong too. Conditions are fine today. Trip, track, ground – no bother. Given he looks in excellent nick and ran a career best not to far back in a really hot contest provides enough reasons to back Iconic Knight in this race here.

Selection:
10pts win – Iconic Knight @ 13/2 MB

……..

6.50 Windsor: Group 3 Winter Hill Stakes, 1m 2f

A 104 rated 3-year-old taking on older horses – there is an obvious reason why Queen Power is favoured to land the odds here, given also her Newbury victory is a highly respected piece of form.

However, I have to oppose her here. She’ll be meeting some tough nuts to crack. and Windsor can be a funny track. Also: Queen Power, even though dropping back in trip and class to better ground after a disappointing Ribblesdale Stakes will suit, but what#s really bugging me is the fact she is yet to run particularly fast. She may well have the ability but she hasn’t shown it yet. She will have to against opposition that largely has been running fast in the past.

For that reason the obvious selection can only be Matterhorn. He’ll have his preferred turf conditions today: a course that can favour those who set the pace, fast ground and the 10 furlong trip.

He was disappointing the last two starts in higher grade. Dropping down to Group 3 will help big time. He has proven to be a horse that belongs to this level. He also has ran fast on both All-Weather and turf, judged by topspeed figures.

Selection:
10pts win – Matterhorn @ 4.2/1 MB

Saturday Selections: August, 10th 2019

Newmarket Rowley Mile pre-parade ring

3.40 Haydock: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

I usually don’t like backing last time out winners, but make an exception for Fantasy Keeper here. He won really well at Sandown over the shorter 5 furlongs in soft conditions, being really well backed.

A little break since then, now back, moving up to 6f, only 3lb higher in the mark, which could underestimate him today. Fantasy Keeper  loves cut in the ground and then it doesn’t matter if five- or six furlongs.

He ran to a topspeed rating of 83 at Sandown, before that over an additional furlong to 81. So, given he finds ideal conditions today, he looks on a fair handicap mark, potentially being able to pull out a bit more, as he’s had only three starts on soft or heavy going to date, with a win and two placed efforts to his name then.

Selection:
10pts win – Fantasy Keeper  @ 5/1 MB

……..

7.55 Ayr: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

The chips are down for Chaplin Bay today, I feel. He’s backed all day long and that makes perfect sense with conditions sure to suit. He’s somewhat of a 7f specialist, who definitely enjoys cut in the ground and has a 50% place SR over course and distance as well.

He hasn’t been winning for a while, so as a consequence dropped rather dramatically certainly in his turf mark. Down to 50 now, he looks supremely well handicapped in a race like this.

Judged on form this year, he still has appetite for the game and didn’t ran too badly on a number of occasions, actually. One to keep an eye out: he’s got an entry here at Ayr for Monday also.

Selection:
10pts win – Chaplin Bay @ 17/2 MB

Saturday Selections: July, 20th 2019

Newbury racecourse

3.00 Newbury: Group 3 Hackwood Stakes, 6f

Fantastic renewal – you can make a case for more than half in the field, predominantly I have high on my shortlist the well backed Donjuan Triumphant, who will enjoy conditions, as well as the two 3-year-old s Khadeem and Oxted. Plus, probably a fair favourite, The Tin Man.

He’s a short price and you can see why. With cut in the ground, he takes a significant drop in class and has a high strike rate. Is he still the force of old, though? Maybe. But this is a super deep race and I can easily oppose him.

On prices, the one I like most now is last years runner-up Projection. He hasn’t shown the same level of form in two runs this year, but I like the fact he comes here with low mileage this season and he ran better than the bare results suggest in the Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot.

He also drops in grade and will love the underfoot conditions today. There is a slight question mark whether all is well with him, given he dropped out tamely the last two races. A tongue tie is applied now. That is concerning, at the same time intriguing.

If the tongue tie does have any positive impact, it is easy to see Projection making a 16/1 price tag look foolish in the closing stages. So, there is risk attached here, but at given odds I’m prepared to take it.

Selection:
10pts win – Projection @ 16/1 MB

…….

5.00 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

I really like the look of both Durrell and Ironclad. Both met at Chelmsford recently and fought out first and second. Durrell had the upper hand that day and he is a fine prospect, though I wonder whether he will turn out to be a much better horse on the All-Weather.

Ironclad in contrast, who ran to a topspeed rating of 83 at Chemsford, has already proven his effectifness on turf, as he landed a minor race at Beverly in the meantime. That’s not form to shout about, and Ironclad still appeared plenty green enough, but it was probably a good learning experience.

This April foal is obviously well bred and through his pedigree offers plenty of upside, having every chance to be a better horse than an 81 rated handicapper. This imposing lad could be well handicapped of this opening mark I feel.

Selection:
10pts win – Ironclad @ 4/1 MB

……

5.15 Ripon: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Two I’m keen on here from the lower end of the betting market: Alqaab stepping up to 6 furlongs for the first time is one of these. He’s a 4-year-old, so has to give weight away. But he’s a compelling horse over the new trip after a pretty decent effort over the minimum distance at Doncaster lately.

That was a super hot contest, and the fact he finished close enough, also posting a 61 topspeed rating, but has fallen to a 60 handicap mark now, is intriguing. He ran well in a couple of Novice races also, but now on a potentially good handicap mark, he can go well in this open contest.

The other one is the filly Sophia Maria in first time blinkers. She drops in trip, which should suit. She has some fine performances already in the book actually, finishing in the money on three occasions over 5- and 6 furlongs.

She also drops to a potentially tasty mark of 62 now, given she matched a 62 TS rating on her final start as juvenile already. There might be a bit more to come from her over this distance in handicap company I feel. Interesting jockey booking with Andrew Elliott, who has a superb record when having only one ride at Ripon in the Summer season!

Selections:
5pts win – Sophia Maria @ 21/1 MB
5pts win – Alqaab @ 17/1 WH

……

7.00 Haydock: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Quick turnaround for Indomeneo, who ran well here at Haydock only 24 hours ago. He looked a little bit awkward in a race where he tracked a hot pace over a mile.

Upped to 10 furlongs, which looks fine on drying ground, a trip, even though he has a poor strike rate, he posted a career best topspeed rating in the past, won’t be an issue I reckon.

Indomeneo as fallen down to a sexy mark, having ran well of around ten pounds higher last season and is now 9lb lower than his last winning mark.

An excellent 3lb claimer is in the saddle – significantly it is Connor Murtagh’s only ride today.

Selection:
10pts win – Indomeneo @ 11/2 MB