Super run by Misty Grey yesterday in the competitive All-Weather Sprint Handicap at Newcastle. He finished a gallant 2nd.
Ultimately beaten beaten by a stronger winner from off the pace. Nonetheless, a huge run given his 16/1 price and can’t ask for more.
Unfortunately Shoot To Kill missed the break and had a mountain to climb there and then – too much, but most likely he wouldn’t have had a chance with the impressive Cephalus in any case. Tempus run as the price suggested, sadly. Tracked the pace but wasn’t good enough on the day.
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4.40 Cork: Handicap, 5f
I have been weighing up all last night and this morning whether to get involved in this race. It’s competitive. Unexposed Goal Exceeded is potentially the “x-factor”, hard to gauge but possibly well-handicapped.
Two Stars and Stag Night meet once again after they locked horns a fortnight ago and also at the Curragh in their respective final runs last season.
Two Stars the likely pace angle in the race, this is where the pace will develop. That’s a positive for Stag Night, but also lightly raced Goal Exceeded.
I’m questioning whether this is the right trip for Goal Exceeded, though. Perhaps an additional furlong is much more likely to see him to best effect, for that he could be well-handicapped today on Handicap debut.
Nonetheless, as a 3-year-old against some seasoned sprinters, on deep ground, appears quite a stiff task, and with that in mind I find his price too short.
Two Stars remains quite unexposed, too, and has shown excellent early speed in all his runs since a slow start in his debut run. He ran to 82 on speed ratings in his final race last year at the Curragh. The handicapper has been lenient to leave his mark untouched after that as well as the recent third placed effort.
He’s an obvious chance today, but quite a short price, and may face some competition for the pace as well.
This his is competitive and the likes of NeverShout Never, mud lover Mickey The Steel, dangerously well-handicap Mehman or the mare Magical Vision can’t be ruled out.
What gets me always back to Stag Night is the fact this should turn today into a a testing enough 5 furlongs, with a couple in the field likely to keep Two Stars honest up front, which will be a huge help to his chances.
Stag night is still low mileage for a 6-year-old, he had issues with his feet, reportedly. Nonetheless, last season in his final two runs on deep ground over 5- and 6f he was able to produce significantly improvement performances.
An 84 speed rating for his Naas win, bettered by a 91 speed rating when a super 3rd in a tight finish at the Curragh. He clearly was well when he returned at the Curragh earlier this months too, as he looked good in the parade ring where I saw him prior to the race in flesh.
He ran really well and “won” the race on his side, but couldn’t live with the turn of foot of the eventual winner, who made a move away from the pace, though, and was possibly seen too late as well.
Stag Night is up a pound for the run, but intriguingly has the assistance of young apprentice Danny Power, who claims invaluable 10lbs. This is only his second ride under rules.
The young apprentice looked quite comfortable on his sole ride at Dundalk, though. I think this weight allowance can only be a help for Stag Night in the deep ground. He is an uncomplicated sort. Just ride him, push him out, and given he only has to follow the lead of Two Stars, who’s drawn right beside, this shouldn’t be too tricky.
Given the price has gone to a point where I feel comfortable to get involved in this competitive race, I’ll have the bet on Stag Night. Ideally he’d go up to 6 furlongs, I feel. But at around 5/1 now he’s more than a point bigger than I’d have him.
I’m more than happy to take on Glamourous Express who’s turned out under a penalty here after an impressive victory at Kempton last week.
Hugh Taylor seems sweet on this lad, and that’s something to be taken seriously. But off 67 today, over 6f, he’s vulnerable. He’s never ran a significant speed rating beyond the minimum trip to suggest he’s well-handicapped in these conditions.
Captain Vallo could be interesting if there’s a generous pace today. But better days may await for such scenario. Water Of Leith is one to fear in this grade. But at current prices I’ll take a punt on Dream Together off bottom weight.
This is his third run since coming back from a long enough break. He ran better than bare forms suggest in his two starts since then and showed a solid attitude, suggesting there’s life.
The pace scenario will suit today. He should be able to to just sit off The Gay Blade and hopefully can kick on from about 2f out. I can see a scenario play out where he could be hard to beg back with his low weight if he can get separation from the main pack.
Dream Together’s All-Weather record is poor. However, he ran 51 and 54 speed ratings last year over this course and distance. He’s allowed to run off 51 now, a career-lowest mark on sand.
That gives him every chance to outrun his price tag today, at the very least. He should be well placed when it matters most.
10pts win – Dream Together @ 10.5/1
…….
7.30 Dundalk: Handicap, 1m
Intriguing and rather competitive race. A bunch of these met a over the last weeks, hence plenty of collateral form exist, for what it’s worth.
I think not too many will be in this to win tonight, though. Shoot To Kill ran with plenty of promise on his debut for the McGuinness yard. He may find an easier race soon, is my feeling.
Rampage looks in good form and his finish here two weeks ago was noteworthy. He has a tough Irish Lincoln run in his legs, though.
Rockbury Lad impressed visually and on the clock over this CD two weeks ago. Betting suggests today isn’t his day.
Skontonovski will be in the mix, but doesn’t appear overly well-handicapped. Neither – certainly not over this trip -looks favourite Exquisite Acclaim, who is in strong form, but has to defy a high enough handicap mark as a result.
The standout for me in this field is the aptly named Not Forgotten. He caught the eye a number of the times this winter on the Dundalk polytrack.
He remains on the same 79 mark after a strong 3rd place effort two weeks ago over this course and distance.
As often before, he wasn’t the sharpest away from the gate but made rapid progress soon after, and that may cost on the day vital fuel that was missing in the final furlong.
The 4-year-old travelled notably well, though, and made smooth progress from 4f out. If only he could get out of the gates a tiny bit better and perhaps keep his focus in the closing stages.
Good news, the visor is on. That appears the right move and could help him to find the necessary couple of pounds improvement tonight. He’s generally still low enough mileage in handicaps to hope for a little bit better.
Off a 79 handicap mark there is plenty of room for one or two more wins in him, given his profile.
Garrick Painter goes back over a mile after two highly encouraging efforts at Dundalk since he moved to Ireland.
He’s been claimed last month on the back of a strong effort over 10 furlongs. From a wide draw he moved quickly forward to get to the front and the stayed for a long time to finish second.
That performance was very much in line with his previous eye-catching run over 7f, on his Dundalk debut. There he utilised a low draw to best effect but also made a lot in front.
He remains still lightly enough raced and these two runs are in line with some of his best efforts, as he ran to 72 and 79 speed ratings last year in the UK on the All-Weather.
Todays looks an ideal scenario, if new connections want to win. 1m should be his optimum trip. He’s got a low draw in a race that lacks competition for pace.
This natural front-runner should be able to dominate and get the run of the race, which often is an advantage at Dundalk.
10pts win – Garrick Painter @ 15/2
……..
8.30 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Competitive little race, but how’s the pace? Not too many obvious front-runners who are sure to move rapidly forward and set a strong pace here.
I feel those from wider draws have a chance. That brings King Of The Jungle into the mix, who was an eyecatcher last time out, but from #12 may find a way to get beat for these connections, hence another day may be more likely to see him run to form.
The one who makes plenty of appeal from the wider drawn horses is Bluebells Boy. He caught the eye twice now in the space of a month at Chelmsford.
Two back it was a massive effort from the widest draw when he only got caught late off his current mark. Last time up in trip, it was a somewhat unfortunate day in the office.
He was a bit awkward soon after the start, keen in the early part of the race when restraint off the pace. His jockey still took a pull 4f out as he travelled notably strongly into the home straight, where he met all sorts of trouble and had no chance.
Bluebells Boy was well-backed the last two times and looks seriously competitive off this mark, especially as he ran to a 56 speed rating back in July this year, and his two recent runs suggest he’s up to that level of performance still.
Winter is coming. With that in mind I’m starting a new list of All-Weather eyecatchers for this new winter season.
All-Weather Eyecatchers is a fortnightly updated list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the sand. Find all previous eyecatchers always here.
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Jimmy Mark 05/10/23 – 5.15 Lingfield:
Held up in last until he made excellent progress from 4f out. Turned very wide and plenty to do. Not the clearest of runs in the home straight, yet finished much the best.
Clearly still improving after cosy Bath success lto. Outstayed his pedigree so far. Racing style not ideal for AW but a smaller field not contested at a rapid clip over 10f should be fine as he possesses cruising speed and a change of gear likely superior for this grade.
Would be intriguing if he drops in trip as well to a mile as he possesses the speed.
Bit keen in the early parts of the race. Restrained in midfield. Travelled strongly to the 2f marker and made strong move around the home bend. Maybe didn’t quite get home in the final furlong.
Still a maiden, however, ran to 60 speed rating over 1m on the AW earlier the year. A drop to a mile or the 8.5f at Wolverhampton could bring out more improvement off a potentially lenient mark. Recent turf run can be ignored.
Travelled strongly in rear. Made excellent progress on sectionals and visually from 4f out all the way to inside 2f from home. Had a lot to do, though. Ran out off steam eventually.
Clear return to form. Down to dangerous mark. 6f Newcastle obviously interesting next time, as long as there is a solid pace to chance. Otherwise may be worth wait for additional help from the handicapper.
Ducked left at the start, quickly recovered and moved forward. Soon grabbed the lead and was quick through the first three furlongs going well before falling away from 1.5f out.
Usually a quick starter. Big prices ever since moving to Ireland. Slowly comes down to intriguing mark. Ran to 55+ speed ratings three times last year on the All-Weather. May have a few more runs before fully in the picture for win purposes. Watch the betting.
Keen early on, hampered soon after the start and even further lit up as a consequence. Made strong progress from 3f out to be in a challenging position over 1f out. Couldn’t sustain effort but showed good attitude all the way to the line.
Big price, and only second start in handicap company. Should stay the trip on pedigree but may benefit from a drop to a mile or 8.5f. Unexposed, and could be better than this lowly mark.
Quick start from widest draw. Chased leader, before taking up the lead entering the home straight. Awkward over 1f out before getting tired and swamped. Strong run at big price.
Seems to hit form again and 1lb below last winning mark. Has turf entry next but worth to wait for 5f AW, especially with any additional help from the handicapper and in a race he could dominate.
Solid start, travelled well enough throughout. However, held up around the home bend as trapped on the inside when the crucial moves where made in front of him. Made strong progress once in the clear and still finished best over the last three furlongs.
Only 3rd AW run. Scope for improvement. Should be able to step up to a mile as well. Clearly capable off 58 and possibly a win or two better, as he also ran to 57 speed rating here in less than ideal circumstances.
Quickly moved forward on the outside of the early leaders. Grabbed the lead and fastest through four of first five furlongs, keen as well in first-time blinkers.
No surprise to see him tire badly. 7f looks ideal. Showed some good form over the trip in the past. Unexposed on the All-Weather. Down to intriguing mark when trip and headgear are more suitable.
Good start, but lit up my moving horse in front of him just before the bend that saw him fall back into tendencies to hang badly. Gave a lot of ground away and needed time to find his feed. Ran home strongly from 2f out, fasted through the final furlong.
Huge ran prior at Wolverhampton from the front as well from wide draw. Obviously a frustrating sort. Not genuine. But also clearly better than OR 74 if he can get his act together. Ideally has an inside draw to get cover on the sides.
Drop to 5f also interesting on a straight, perhaps even with application of headgear once more.
Not the sharpest away and pushed forward, but soon pulled through on the inside to grab the led thanks to the low draw. In front until 2f before getting badly tired. First run for new yard off a small break.
Still lightly enough raced. Ran to 72 and 79 speed ratings last year. Will come down to intriguing mark over 7f or maybe even more so a mile especially when he gets a good draw once again.
Competitive in nature as these sprint handicaps tend to be, there are about a handful – at most – handicapped to win. British raider Came From The Dark is definitely one of those.
He was a massive eyecatcher last time in the infamous Epsom Dash where he finished the fastest over the last three furlongs.
That day he had a lot to do after missing the break and getting pushed over to his right by a rival right after leaving the gate. Eventually he ran on incredibly strongly with a huge effort on the far side of the track.
That run confirmed the impression he gave at Newmarket before, where he also finished the best and was somewhat unfortunate finding himself behind horses at a crucial stage.
Clearly Came From The Dark is in sensational form. However, he didn’t get off to a good start the last two times now. Is this a new habit? A clear concern, as it would be game over here if he loses a lengths at the start.
On the other hand, the uphill finish over 5f at the Curragh should suit a lot and he is drawn right around a lot of pace to possibly tow him into the finish, where he needs possibly a bit of luck for the gap to open.
Off 89 he’s well-handicapped, no doubt. Ground, trip and track will suit.
10pts win – Came From The Dark @ 15/2
……
3.40 Curragh: Group 1 Irish Derby, 1m 4f
Auguste Rodin is the overwhelming favourite and there’s every reason to believe he can do the special Epsom & Curragh double today.
Too imposing was his performance last month in the English Derby, as he cruised into contention over two furlongs out and kicked clear off a very good colt in King Of Steel.
He ran home the fastest over the final three furlongs and did it easily. There’s no doubt he’s incredibly hard to beat. Perhaps he’s nearly unbeatable – as much the odds suggest.
Aiden O’Brien has assembled an armada of runners, probably to ensure a safe passage and solid pace.
Unfortunately the final field has somewhat cut up to the point where the Irish Derby becomes nearly a family affair for the O’Brien clan. In saying that, the two “foreigners” are of huge interest, and add spice to the race, nonetheless.
White Birch has proven himself to be a seriously talented colt. On speed figures his runner-up performance in the Dante rates actually a pound higher than Auguste Rodin’s Derby victory.
Different track, different trip, though. Nonetheless, the Ballysax winner caught the eye in the Dante and subsequently the Derby with the way he finished his races. Both times not ideally placed.
If he could start better, and doesn’t give himself too much to do early on, he’ll be closer at this more conventional track, that is the Curragh. The likely good pace and stiff finish should suit.
The other one is Sprewell, Jessica Harrington’s colt. A winner of a minor race at Naas on his seasonal debut, he showed signs of developing into a really good one in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown.
He kicked nicely clear in the final furlong of the talented Up And Under, who is also here today, trained by Joseph O’Brien, and one who also could feature.
Sprewell, though, is the one I’m most interested in for win purposes against Auguste Rodin. The question then is, what are the reasons for him to find seven lengths today? That was the distance he found himself behind at Epsom, where he finished 4th.
The factors that could see him getting a lot closer this time are the track, the ground and the hope for natural improvement.
Epsom was only his fifth career start, but the first time going over the Derby trip. He looked still quite a bit keen and raw at various stages of the race.
Certainly he didn’t enjoy the idiosyncrasies of Epsom. He also had mitigating factors in the home straight for not finishing closer.
Sprewell found himself short of room at a crucial stage of the race over 2.5f out. He was ever so slightly hampered in the preceding furlong as well.
Wen he tried to go through a gap, splitting the middle of two rivals, he became severely unbalanced. It was impressive and the sign of serious talent that he found his momentum quickly back before his stamina ran out in the final furlong, though he still finished with the 4th fasted final furlong split, and 5th best over the last three furlongs, despite all the trouble.
The galloping Curragh should suit a lot more, so should the less fast ground. He may be ridden with a bit more restraint as well, and then slowly easing into contention. Whether he truly gets home over the Derby trip, up the hill, remains to be seen.
My feeling is 10 furlongs may turn out to be the optimum. On the other hand, in the Derby trial, on heavy ground, he was gaining the further they went in the closing stages.
The truth is most likely, Sprewell will find Auguste Rodin too good. At the given prices, I feel it’s worth to back Jessica Harrington’s horse, though, as there are legitimate reasons to believe he can get a whole lot closer. And this is racing, things can happen.
It’s a wild game of ups and downs. Last week very much on a high. Days later things look bleaker. Another blank on Saturday. 14 on the bounce the red L.
Raasel ran well, good third place, but no chance with the winner. The ride on Fiftyshadesofred didn’t make any sense. I’ll give her another chance with a better rider on board. Winforglory stayed on strongly, but too late, and it seemed he didn’t have the early speed needed up in class.
Looking back over the last week, many ran well enough, still, even got placed. I’m quite satisfied with the selections, to the most part. There’s probably two I’d like to have back. Otherwise, happy enough. The upswing will come…. hopefully sooner, rather than later.
Ay always on a day after a huge Grade 1 in South Africa, a quick note on the big race there: Charles Dickens got his redemption. He beat the older horses for the first time. And he did it pretty easily
The 3-year-old superstar colt lost his unbeaten record in the King’s Plate back in January when he was bravely taking on the best older milers in the country. He was ran down late by Al Muthana for second place.
Not so this time. Al Muthana, who was here again, and won the Gold Challenge in excellent style twelve month ago, came with a late charge once again, but it was game over by then.
The rides may have made a difference, some argued. Al Muthana had to come around wide. Charles Dickens got a dream run through on the inside. True. and yet, that’s how Al Muthana has to be ridden. He didn’t have enough late speed this time to ran home a stronger Charles Dickens.
It’s clear now that Charles Dickens is a miler. He still shows signs of early keenness. He’s still raw in the finish. He’ll never get 10 furlongs I reckon. That’s a problem if he wants to prove his greatness in his home country.
I hope, though, that connections consider a move for international races, as difficult an endevour this can be for South African horses. His options are ultimately limited at home, but he could be good enough – let’s find out – to take on the top-class milers of the world.
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2.35 Navan: 3yo+ Handicap, 5f
A highly competitive affair, one I would usually stay away from, especially in Ireland. But I’m somewhat desperate the give Lokada another chance as the ground is just perfect for the lightly raced filly.
Who knows how much longer the relatively dry and warm spell continues here, there comes a time decent ground is a thing of the past, and then Lokada doesn’t even need to go to post.
In saying that, the race evolves around Only Spoofing, who’s clearly been set up for this race, down to a mark of 80, he was well hidden lately and it’s clear today is “D-Day”.
No doubt on last years form he’s got a proper chance and will enjoy the going too. But he’s a 9-year-old, nonetheless. At given prices he can be opposed.
The others, like Harmony Rose, Curraheen Princess or Screen Siren and Tawazoon are real dangers on their best form. This is competitive.
Lokada has drifted out in the betting this morning. I’m not too worried about it and more delighted that she’s now a price to back.
Reportedly she needed a lot of time to learn and grow last year, but landed two 5f sprints at Dundalk in November in fine style, subsequently running with tons of credit from a wide draw at the same venue before a winter break.
She returned at Naas last month and ran a huge race in second place behind a seriously well-handicapped winner.
She was prominent on the far side, travelled strongly, possibly going best and ran home strongly up the hill for 2nd place on her side. She didn’t have a chance with winner on stands’ side, who was probably advantaged by racing on that side.
She achieved a 70 speed rating there and I was keen to back her next time at Tipperary to go one better. It was initially disappointing to see her finish a well beaten 4th only, but in hindsight it’s clear she bumped into a well-handicapped improver once again.
Also: the winner aside, she did much the best of those drawn wide and therefore ran a little bit better than the bare result would tell. Another excuse…. at some point there are none left and it is what it is.
Yet, I strongly feel her last two, perhaps taking the last Dundalk run into account as well, can be upgraded. The handicapper dropped her back to 71 (from 74), which is more than fair and gives her a huge opportunity.
As mentioned before, she ran to 70 at Naas, she also achieved a whopping 81 speed rating on the All-Weather last year. She has a low weight, possible the ideal #7 draw in this field, the track should suit and she’ll love the ground.
No excuses today? Hopefully not. Though, I become slightly concerned that since having written this piece and backed her, she continues to drift further in the betting. To a point soon, possibly, where the odds are utter nonsense. In those cases, as we all know Irish racing: if it doesn’t make sense there is a reason for it.
That’s one of the reasons I don’t bet Irish racing much. I find it even less trustworthy than low-class Britain. But here we are. I made the call, my money is down. Hopefully on a trier.
A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous eyecatchers here.
Lil Guff 22/05/23 – 5.00 Windsor:
Settled in rear against the inside rail, before gradually moving over to the other side, travelling well, but not getting a run through over one furlong out, when she tried to progress on the widest outside, with a shifting rival not helping to get clear passage there either.
Finished a fine 3rd. Fast ground, minimum trip not ideal. All best career performances over 6 furlongs, and enjoys less lively ground too. Down to a good mark, won off 76 and 82 last summer.
A 76 speed rating here and 79 speed rating in April suggest she’s in the same form now. Ideally want to see her up in trip, though.
Travelled really well in his group. Fine progress from halfway through and won his group comfortably. Couldn’t catch the winner who travelled alone on the far side.
Ran the best finishing speed. Clearly in good form and on solid mark off 80 having ran to 80 and 83 speed rating last year. Better over 6f on fast ground. Didn’t have that yet this year.
Set hot pace from the front and travelled strongly until getting quite tired from over 1f out to finish 4th eventually as he’s getting swamped late. Should be good form.
Down to fine mark. In good form. Best with ease in the ground, hence this run warrants an upgrade, but is competitive on fast too, and continues to drop a seriously intriguing mark in any case.
Sluggish start, recovered and went forward to lead at a red hot pace. Found plenty under pressure and only late beaten by two from off the pace.
Good speed rating, which is believable. Ran to near similar speed rating a month earlier on the All-Weather. Definitely in good form but has issues and the hood didn’t seem to help. Would stay a mile if he could settle.
Jury is out how much he’s got in hand these days, but worth another try over 7 furlongs as he has been dropped 2lb by the handicapper for this fine effort.
Pushed a hot pace from the front as part of a duo. Kept fighting well to the line under pressure and nearly held on fending off all challengers bar the winner who came from off the pace.
Huge run. 1st tongue tie, responded well here as well for the decent ground. Deserves a chance in these circumstances again. Won off 73 last autumn in fine style and achieved 77 speed rating.
Was disappointing next time. However was a drifter on the day in the betting, never seemed to travel too well and maybe just doesn’t like ground that fast.
Caught seriously wide from #14 draw. Did a lot to cross over and get into a position where she tracked the hot pace. Some progress in the home straight before getting tired and also hampered 1f out.
Ran better than bare form lto on Handicap debut as well. Not ridden with intend to obtain best result last two times. The game is in the name…. down to 50 now interesting, if handbrake is off, especially with any support in the betting.
Travelled like a dream in midfield, well covered. Came through strongly, hard on the bridle, going through a gap over 2 furlongs out. Was eventually outkicked and not had the speed to go with the winner but ran on well.
Has the pedigree to improve beyond six furlongs. Will be of serious interest up in trip if she can settle. Has won and ran well over sprint trips already. The way she travelles suggests there’s talent better than a 78 OR.
Forced to settle off the pace the way the race developed. Was going well but had to wait for room as no gap opened late. Finished best in the final furlong.
Clear return to form after some lesser efforts on the All-Weather. Did well on the sand during winter, though. Down to sexy mark and not out of it on turf either, despite 0/5 record. Never expected in those runs but clearly handles fast ground.
Quickly restraint in rear of the field against the inside rail. Was going pretty well but progress stopped as he was stuck behind a wall of horses, short of room and hampered from two furlongs until late before in the clear inside the final furlong and finished nicely.
Only slowly drops in the mark. Effective over a variety of sprint trips and acts on nearly all ground. Not tremendously well-handicapped but placed off higher and may not be far off a big run if allowed to run on merit.
Swerved to his left out of the gate then settled in midfield. Travelled strongly on the bridle over 2f out behind horses but had to wait for room and switch to the inside for a run. Finished best.
Started the first two furlongs & finished the final furlong faster than the the first two home (fastest final furlong). May not truly stay 1m and would ideally drop to 7f. Lightly raced, good speed rating here as well.
Tracked the pace against the inside rail for most of the race until the two groups merged. He found himself shot of room multiple times and only late was able to get properly into the clear to finish strongly.
Strong form. Ran to 80 speed rating. Seemed to enjoy the decent ground and has responded for blinkers the last two. Showed promise as a juvenile. Clearly better than what he has shown up to now.
If he’s kept in handicap company he’ll be well-handicapped. Move up in trip is certainly preferable.
Travelled in midfield, not going smoothly, niggled along, possibly found the pace over 7f on fastish ground too hot. Kept going well, though. Not clear run over 2f out and slightly hampered over 1f out.
Handicap debut and should be better than this. Decent speed rating. Should move up in trip again and dangerous off 87 on decent ground.
His chances were compromised from the wide draw. He didn’t get in to find cover and as a consequence always travelled three wide, mostly without cover, off the pace. Travelled well and made good progress from over 3f out before getting tired in the final furlong.
May not quite stay a mile. 7f most likely ideal. Impressive win as a juvenile. High enough mark but deserves chance over 7f. He usually can go forward. Deserves chance in easier race.
Huge disadvantage the low draw that day. In rear early on, before excellent progress from three furlong out on the far side. Did well to run so well for so long.
Better over 6f, ideally with decent to fast ground. One who needs things to fall right but ran solid last season still and could be underestimated in the right race.
Widest draw away from the inside rail huge disadvantage. Bumped after the start. Was going okay but short of room over 2f out. Disaster run. Ran on well prior on his handicap debut as well.
Could be better than this. May prefer ease in the ground and/or could enjoy an additional furlong as he doesn’t seem to have the speed for fast 6f. Down to 72 intriguing.
Off to a good start, tracked pace keenly early on. Travelled well enough before he became a bit flat footed over 2 furlongs out as the sedate pace increased. Lost ground but stamina kicked in and he flew home the final furlong.
Could enjoy moving up in trip if the pace is solid. Smart prospect and may be underestimated because his profile isn’t that sexy, especially after his Dubai flop.
Flew down the first half of the race, was over a full second faster to the 3f marker than the eventual winner. Gradually tired but was game to the line.
Bumped into a well-handicapped one on seasonal reappearance lto. Can get home but more often than not 7f is a stretch, probably best over 6f. down to solid mark and clearly in form a pound below his last winning mark.
Moved quickly forward from wider than ideal draw and travelled very wide before moving across to lead. Was going well for long and showed good attitude late as well.
Best over 5f. Down to intriguing mark. Ran well over minimum trip on fast ground last year. Didn’t get the best of luck on the AW lately but finished well, especially last time at Southwell.
Quick start, led from the front as part of duo. Travelled strongly approaching 2f out before he came under severe pressure. beaten by winner from off the pace.
Still a maiden but ran twice 62+ speed ratings. may not stay 7f unless gifted a soft lead. drop to 6f really interesting off career-lowest mark.
Set off very fast, going sprinter pace the first few furlongs, as part of a duo. Kept going well, still ahead 1f out, swamped late. huge run and return to form. down to sexy mark, judged on last season.
Should be strong form. Winner was well-handicapped. Would be most interesting for drop to 7f, even though he stays further, a mile with little pace competition could also be interesting.
Right up with the pace, lead early then chased it. Seemingly going backwards from 2f out but kept on well. Bumped slightly over 1f out and squeezed. Hot race and strong form most likely.
Should find an easier one and can win and may improve with experience still. May also be able to drop to 6f.
Set strong pace from the front. Had the field on the stretch halfway out. Kicked clear and only late beaten by very well-handicapped horse.
May go up a couple of pounds but ran 66 speed rating here and 67 in the past. Clearly best on decent ground, and could go well in the right race of revised mark still in right conditions.
Bumped at the start, settled in rear, made some good progress travelling well from over 3f out on the outside of the field. Impeded 2f out, ran home solid enough.
Looks a big horse. May needed the run still. Still lightly raced, handicap debut and worth to watch out for over 7f-1m on decent ground. Full-sister achieved nothing, so not too many chances given.
Dwelt, keen in rear, seemed difficult to steer and went very wide. great progress and finished second on the line despite jockey tried to pull up early.
Dropped another couple of pounds in the meantime. Run better last few runs than bare form. Still a maiden but could cherry ripe potentially. Entry next week at Haydock intriguing.
Dwelt from wide draw, rushed forward on outside before crossing over to lead the field. Was going well and seriously gutsy to stay in front for as long as he did.
Career best speed rating. clearly back in form. Not on to trust to follow-up, but worth to check if he drops to 7f again as the additional half furlong may have been a bit too far here.
Tracked the pace on far side, quite prominently ridden. Travelled well to 2f out but couldn’t quite keep up the effort in the closing stages. Did best of those low drawn, which is often a disadvantage over this CD.
Career-best on speed ratings, as low as that is. 7f on fast ground ideal and interesting in a similarly poor race when she has a good draw.
Dwelt and awkward out of the gate. Settled in midfield, bumped into rival before the first turn. Made progress and found a route through to challenge, though the winner was long gone. Ran on well.
Confirmed lto promise. Down to fine mark. Best on decent ground (ideally no worse than yielding), so could be intriguing on a more conventional track if the dry spell continues. However, can have issues at the gate.
Travelled seriously well on the far side, covered up behind the pace. Pulled out over 2f out and kicked on well to lead, before late beaten by horse on the stands’ side.
Well handicapped on last-years form. Clearly back in form as he showed some promise at Catterick prior too.
He enjoys decent ground and should remain dangerous even with a small hike in the ratings.
A finish dominated by those ridden with restraint. Which was somewhat surprising, because they didn’t go too hard in the first half of the race, with a finishing speed of 116% for the winner, Auguste Rodin (the par for the Derby distance at Epsom is around 111%) not quite telling the tale, perhaps.
King Of Steel raced the closest to the pace from those who made any impact in the closing stages. He travelled pretty well in midfield and kicked on strongly from over 3f out, before being outstayed in the final furlong by the Aiden O’Brien trained colt.
White Birch came from very far back and made great progress on the outside in the home straight. He’s an obvious eyecatcher in that sense. However, there a couple of others who interest me more for the future.
Sprewell is probably the one who left the biggest impression on me. I was certainly not overly keen on him beforehand, but he certainly confirmed his huge talent in the Derby.
It was his fifth career start, but the first time going over the Derby trip. He looked still a bit keen and perhaps green at various stages of the race, hence the fact he finished so well in 4th, without ever appearing with a shot of winning, truth told, is noteworthy.
He found himself short of room at a crucial stage of the race over 2.5f out, though. Subsequently he got badly unbalanced, yet found his momentum quickly again and ran on before his stamina ran out in the final furlong.
Fast ground clearly wasn’t an issue. But the Derby trip may stretch his stamina, especially in a properly run race. However, he has shown his class over 10 furlongs already. That looks his trip. He’s one I’ll track.
Waipiro endured a disaster run. he dwelt, was then caught behind a wall of horses, trailed the field and had to come around wide for a run.
He made excellent progress from 4f out around Tattenham Corner, before his effort fizzled out from 2f out. He probably didn’t get the trip. Though, I thought the confirmed the promise he showed at Newmarket and at Lingfield.
Whether he’s a genuine Group 1 horse remains to be seen. He could be underestimated if he drops down to 10 furlongs, though.
Artistic Star ran a race of two halves, so to speak. Initially I was disappointed with his run. I backed him, and thought he would do much better than a 11 lengths beaten 7th place.
However, he ran a race full of promise. After a solid start he didn’t travel well, niggled at various stages. Perhaps inexperience in such a big, tight field was to blame.
Three furlongs from home he was relegated to last even, before the penny seemed to drop and he motored home in the 4rd fastest final 3f split to pass many tired horses.
He’ll have learned plenty and remains at this stage an exciting prospect after two excellent career performances prior where he ran strong speed ratings for an inexperienced horse.
Whether he’s Group 1 class remains to be seen. His siblings were smart horses but not quite top-notchers. He looks to stay the Derby distance, much like they did, though.
Spartan Fighter returns to turf off a 10lb lower mark than his current All-Weather rating. He ran with plenty of credit on the sand in recent weeks and is potent on turf as well, so he could be quite well-handicapped today.
He drops to 6 furlongs as well, which is more his trip than when last seen over 7f at Wolverhampton. There he also had to overcome the widest draw and did a lot to get to the front. It was no surprise to see him fading from 2f out.
There’s no doubt he outran his odds more often than not in his last handful or so runs. He caught the eye in no uncertain terms at Newcastle in March when 4th in a hot race. He travelled pretty well, made good progress on the outside and only dropped away late in the day.
He wasn’t as good next time, but it was a strange run, and looked back to decent form in the aforementioned Wolverhampton race.
He also drops in class today and looks seriously dangerous on ground and trip to suit. The 5lb claim of his rider should be useful as well. Obviously he didn’t have many opportunities on grass in the last twelve month, and there is a question as to why that’s the case.
Though, past turf speed ratings give him a huge chance here off his 56 rating in this contest.
10pts win – Spartan Fighter @ 6/1
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6.45 Tipperary: Handicap, 5f
Lokada was a strong runner-up at Naas behind Harry’s Hill three weeks ago. She meets this rival, who was seriously well-handicapped then, on better terms today and also may not have to fight the draw bias as was the case at Naas.
That day she was prominent on the far side, while Harry’s Hill enjoyed the advantage of racing against the stands’ side. She travelled strongly, possibly going best and ran on strongly up the hill to get up late for 2nd place to win his group.
He’s 2lb higher today, which is a fair hike by Irish standards. She also ran to 70 speed rating at Naas and an impressive 81 on the AW last year.
The Naas form should be strong and there’s every chance the relatively lightly filly can continue to progress, as her last two runs can be upgraded – Naas, as mentioned, but also her run prior at Dundalk warranted an upgrade.
10pts win – Lokada @ 7/2
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8.10 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Nogo’s Dream drops in class and should find this much easier than the last two times at Newmarket and Ascot. The fast ground is a slight question mark, but you would hope he acts on it.
In any case he looks a progressive sort. He won a maiden over the minimum trip at Wolverhampton in March and caught the eye the next time at Newmarket.
He travelled strongly, made smooth progress from 3f out, on the bridle, went on to press the lead approaching the final furlong but got badly tired eventually.
Perhaps didn’t get home over the stiff 7f. And the same could be possibly said the last time at Ascot. In deep ground 6f maybe stretched him a little it too much.
This race is easier. 6f on decent ground should help. He looks underestimated off his 77 handicap mark as the handicapper raised him only by a single pound for those last two strong efforts.
Back-to-back winners: Ventura Express won his race at Pontefract quite comfortably. Everything worked to absolute perfection – that’s not always the case: superb ride, hugged the rail, saved ground, kicked on 2f out and game over.
He was well backed all day too, went off 7/2. So I got a great price, although a little lower than originally thought as I only realised in the morning my full stake wasn’t matched as initially thought it did. Topped up and ended up closer to 7s, which is still lovely.
On to Saturday: it’s Irish 2000 Guineas day. I love this day and will make may way down the N7 to the Curragh, of course. This is usually when Ireland is at its most beautiful – warm, and sunny, everything is blossoming. Plenty of hope is in the air right before the first Classic of the Irish flat season as well.
It’s also another Grade 1 day over in South Africa. One of the premier contests for 3-year-old middle-distance horses shapes as a cracker of a race (potential selection in the morning when there is a market for me to back, to be added here).
I also must say the amount of racing this Saturday – and quite frankly most of the days during the week as well – is simply overwhelming. I struggle to keep up and it takes a bit the joy out of it.
I love turf racing, but enjoy the somewhat quieter pace of the All-Weather season more, as sad as that sounds. The latest news from the reshaped fixture list in the UK doesn’t provide much hope that this is to change anytime soon.
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2.12 Greyville: Grade 1 Daily News 2000, 1m 2f
A hot renewal of the key race for the middle-stance three-year-olds in South Africa. The right horses are here to the most part.
See It Again is a pretty short-priced favourite, and you can see why. He was a 40/1 shock winner in the Cape Derby and followed up nicely in the WSB Guineas earlier this month when he ran on well after getting badly outpaced over three furlongs out.
The step up to 2000m will surely suit and he’s clearly the one to beat, simply given the fact he beat Charles Dickens at Kenilworth, who’s the benchmark every three-year-old is measured against this year, and because he finished so strongly when last seen over a trip a bit on the sharp side.
But he’s a tricky horse as well. One who has to be ridden in a specific way. He wears blinkers for a reason and can race sluggishly. I wouldn’t want to trust him at short odds.
Without Question runs in the same colours and was a good third in the Derby, where he faltered late after pushing the pace. He went on to win a Grade 3 over a mile on his comeback run when last seen, doing so against older horses.
He’s clearly talented and may get the run of the race from close to the pace here.
Cousin Casey is probably the most interesting horse here. A son of 2013 Daily News winner Vercingetorix, he was a brilliant 2-year-old and has done well in his 3yo campaign as well, against seriously tough opposition.
After landing a Grade 2 over a mile on his seasonal reappearance he went on to ran a huge race as runner-up behind Charles Dickens in the Cape Guineas. That pushed him near the top of the market for South Africa’s Premier all-age open middle-distance Grade 1, the Met.
From a wide draw he was caught wide, was pulling hard without cover and eventually pulled his way to the front. He only went down late in the day behind the countries best horses, for a strong 5th place. A huge run.
He got a well-deserved break afterwards, before returning with a fine tune-up race at Greyville, before a solid 4th in the WSB Guineas behind Charles Dickens.
That day he made huge progress from the back of the field on the outside from 4f out. he clearly did too much there, going upside with Charles Dickens and fast finishing See It Again. He paid for those exertions, eventually.
Going up in trip isn’t a worry. He should stay the distance on pedigree and the Met run gives plenty of hope. However, he can pull hard as well, and that’s the main worry.
I believe he’s the best horse in the race, though, if he can get his act together. His Met run is clearly the strongest form in the race, this is his third run after a beak, the one he’s had as the target for a while, he should be at his peak now. With that in mind the odds are generous.
10pts win – Cousin Casey @ 4/1
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3.05 Curragh: Listed Orby Stakes, 1m4f
Sionnach Eile looked last season like one very much capable of stepping up listed level when he won back-to-back Handicaps in July. He had a long break since then, and with that in mind the recent Cork comeback run can be ignored.
Nonetheless, he travelled pretty well for a long time before getting pretty tired eventually. You would hope he strips fitter here, and one would think connections have had this contest in mind for a while.
He moves up in trip, which is sure to suit, given he won over twice over 1m 4f+, including the hot Guinness Handicap at Galway when last seen off 94.
That was a clear career-best effort as he achieved a superb 97 speed rating, which gives him an excellent chance in this type of race here, if he could run to the same level of form.
The pace could be muddling, but no bother, Sionnach Eile can move forward and could be hard to catch if allowed to stride on.
10pts win – Sionnach Eile @ 5/1
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3.40 Curragh: Group 1 Irish 2000 Guineas, 1m
A sub-standard edition of the first Classic of the Irish Flat season. This seems to evolve around the British raiders for once because Aiden O’Brien’s horses are a surprisingly poor bunch, certainly judged on what they have done up until now.
Proud And Regal is the one exception, as he’s a Group 1 winner from his juvenile season. However, a mile on decent ground is a completely different test to a mile on heavy going in France at the end of a 2-year-old campaign.
Paddington is Ryan Moore’s choice. He won a Listed trial at Leopardstown after winning a hot Handicap on his seasonal comeback. He’s got potential, though, given he hasn’t run any significant speed rating yet, does appear to be well below Group 1 standard.
It’s fair to say Royal Scotsman enhanced his credentials in no uncertain terms in the English 2000 Guineas earlier this month. He ran on well for 3rd place despite showing early keenness, which can’t have helped.
He’s got a huge engine, as we knew from his excellent juvenile campaign as well. No doubt he does stay the trip and the slight uphill finish at the Curragh will be to his advantage.
For all that, he’s a short price, perhaps fairly so, but his tendency to pull hard is a question mark in a race where the pace may not be red hot.
The obvious for me, although I’m certainly biased as well, is Hi Royal. He was one of those 3-year-old colts I flagged in my 3yo to follow piece before the start of the season.
He certainly confirmed the promise shown as a juvenile when he finished a brilliant runner-up at Newmarket in the English 2000 Guineas. For the most part he even looked like the winner, until hanging a potential Classic success in the final furlong away.
Hi Royal has an engine, a turn of foot and does stay beyond a mile probably. He should enjoy the galloping Curragh and the uphill finish to the line.
Somewhat of a question mark is the likely fastish ground, though. The Guineas was on officially soft ground. His sole career victory came with plenty of cut in the ground.
What gives hope is his debut run, when an excellent third in a hot maiden on fast ground. However, he seems to hit the ground hard and the fact he is probably at his best once he moves up to 10 furlongs is a concern.
Nonetheless, he’s the most solid choice and slightly overpriced, given he has proven his class already, settled well, travelles well and has plenty of upside.
10pts win – Hi Royal @ 11/2
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4.10 Haydock: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
This is a wide open contest on paper, but I feel Big R is potentially hard to beat if he acts on the fast ground.
He was a huge eyecatcher on his seasonal reappearance and handicap debut last time at Salisbury, and despite the massive effort, he has been eased by a pound in the meantime. That won’t make too much of a difference as he’s already extremely well-handicapped off 70, most likely.
At Salisbury he was at a disadvantage from the #8 gate right away. He was caught wide and without cover early on, before settling at the back of the field. hen then made rapid progress on outside from the halfway stage to challenge the leaders over 1f out, before getting tired and beaten by those with better draws and closer to the pace.
It rates a huge performance against the pace and track bias. He showed good early speed last year as well, suggesting sprinting is his game. He may stay 7f on pedigree, but 6f appears to be ideal.
Big R was a cheap yearling, so is not one who has tons of scope, probably. Nonetheless, judged on this most recent run he looks clearly better than a 69 Official Rating.
10pts win – Big R @ 4/1
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4.55 Goodwood: Class 4 Handicap, 5f
Huberts Dream looks dramatically overpriced if he’s good to go here. He’s got a good draw to attack the rail and stretch the field, while he may well enjoy the better ground which he didn’t get in those turf starts when expected to run well.
Certainly one can ignore the recent Chester run in deep ground from a #10 draw and he also lost a shoe. He ran with plenty of credit at Lingfield prior in a seriously competitive Handicap.
To continue to run over the minimum trip seems a good idea. He showed signs of severe keenness over 6 furlongs in the past, but at the same time showed that early speed is his biggest asset.
He won well on the All-Weather during the winter notching up a hat-trick of wins achieving multiple speed ratings in the 70s. He’s dangerous here if allowed to run on merit.
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