Tag Archives: Monday

Monday Selections: June, 18th 2018

DSC_1062

3.05 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

13 year old Secret Asset has dropped to a very dangerous mark and finds himself in a pretty poor low grade contest despite showing here and there glimpses of retaining some sort of competitive form.

He clearly isn’t the force of the past, however now down a mark off 46 he looks ready to land a race with conditions in his favour. Four of his six career turf wins came on fast ground.

So, the fact he finds a fast surface today is a bonus. The jockey/trainer combo doesn’t look strong, nonetheless 5lb claim on top of the low mark may mean Secret Asset can outrun his price tag.

Selection:
10pts win – Secret Asset @ 15/1 MB

………

4.45 Ayr: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 5f

He’s on the drift and that might be a sign in itself, still I fancy top weight An Fear Ciuin and put a speculative bet on him to shorten later on again. He really looks ready for a big one today.

Back on the flat, dropping into class 5 Handicap – the last time he found himself in this lowly class he won (over 2m) – and also down to his last winning mark.

He should be fit from hurdling after two fair efforts over two miles. The ground might be a bit faster than ideal, and this could well be a race to bring the mark further down. So be it…. An Fear Ciuin is way too big a price.

Selection:
10pts win – An Fear Ciuin @ 25/1 PP

…..

8.30 Windsor: Class 5 handicap, 1m 2f

Wide open Handicap for three year olds. Another rather speculative one for me here with handicap debutant Vlannon.

Three starts in maiden company in quick succession. He final one over 7f at Lingfield was the best of the lot. He battled hard in a fair race but clearly needs further.

His pedigree, at least on the dam side supports this. Vlannon is a half-brother to a couple of individuals who did there best over further and later over hurdles. His opening mark is fair, gives him a good chance to win a race as improvement is likely to come for the new trip.

Selection:
10pts win – Vlannon @ 13/1 MB

Monday Selections: June, 10th 2018

DSC_1062

Been a tough week. Finally a winner, though. Justanotherbottle (9/2) done that really nicely and won hands and heels his race at Nottingham in the end. That ends this week one a slightly more positive note.

……

4.30 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Impart hasn’t won in 20 starts and clearly has gone backwards ever since running a huge race off an 89 rating in class 3 Chester Handicap twelve months ago.

Here and there some promising runs suggesting there might be a return to form around the corner. But mainly he’s been disappointing and fortunes haven’t changed since moving to a new yard.

He’s dropping to a new career lowest mark while also dropping in class and moving up to six furlongs. On anything near his old best he’d run away with this. He isn’t the horse of the past, however Impart looked very much improved at Lingfield last month.

He was about to find his second win and challenge at least for some place money entering the final furlong when the door seemed to shut in front of him at a crucial stage.

Impart was still not far beaten and appeared to be able to finish a good deal closer with a clear run. That run gave the indication he wouldn’t mind an additional furlong, so the step up to 6f off a low mark into a wide open race should give him a proper chance to get back to the winning ways.

Selection:
10pts win – Impart @ 15/2 PP

 

Monday Selections: June, 4th June 2018

DSC_1062

A first Derby win for Godolphin. It’s been in the making for far too long, the ultimate dream finally achieved, however. 41 years it took, then Sheikh Mohammed could see his home bred Masar scoot home to land the world’s most prestigious flat race.

A whopping 16/1 chance. How could so many miss the credentials the 2000 Guineas third had, including myself?! My own selecting The Pentagon only proved one thing: not good enough.

Derby Day could have been a super day, regardless. Ana Nerium ran the race of her life in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes if she wouldn’t have had had too much to do from the rear of the field, unfortunately.

The consolation in the evening, at least. The double of Sam Gold and Midnight Blue landed. Off to the winning ways in June…

……

6.15 Windsor: Class 4 Novice Stakes, 5f

Hugh Taylor’s selection Queen of Bermuda is backed as if there isn’t a tomorrow. And sure she was super impressive at Thirsk recently. She is well entitled to follow-up here, though all the money coming for here leaves others in the field at tasty value prices.

First and foremost the ride of Derby winning jockey William Buick. Only one ride on Windor’s evening card, he comes over to sit on well bred Leading Spirit.

The colt ran pretty green on debut at Yarmouth in a hot class 3 contest last month. The winner looked incredibly smart there, Leading Spirit faded away in the closing stages to finish a well beaten 3rd in the end.

That form should work out really well, I suspect. Leading Spirit drops to the minimum trip. That’ll suit, he looked sharp out of the gate. His sire has an excellent record here at Windsor as well as in general over 5f plus on fast ground. He’s bound to improve quite a bit and that should see him go close to the favourite, I hope.

Selection:
10pts win – Leading Spirit @ 11/2 VC

……

 

8.30 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 7f

An incredibly open race screaming for a long-shot to get his head in front. I do like the chance of In Focus here, despite him seemingly loosing his form and still looking for a first win beyond a mile.

That says, there are fair reasons for his last three forms that read so badly: he was entitled for his seasonal debut run at Wetherby last month and didn’t take to hurdling in his final run in 2017. A combination of very soft ground and potentially a little bit too much racing at the back end of last year may was the combination that saw him fading badly at Catterick on his penultimate run.

Judge on his best performances in 2017 over marathon trips, when twice runner-up in 14f handicaps, suggest he can get the trip and is competitive from his current handicap mark.

I feel the fast ground today could be real deal breaker in a positive sense. He hasn’t encountered anything like it for quite some time. He did win on fast ground twice in the past, however.

 Selection:
10pts win – In Focus @ 14/1 VC

……

FYI: If interested, keep an eye on this blog because if the ground dries further at Windsor, I may identify another selection for the evening card there. 

Monday Selection: May, 21st 2018

DSC_1062

+8.00 Leicester: Class 5 Fillies’ Handicap, 7f

Big field, highly competitive – normally not a race I would be particularly drawn to. Says, Amanda Perrett’s filly Flirtare catches my eye in many different ways.

The Oasis Dream daughter tries the flush green turf for the first time after showing promise on the All-Weather in four starts.

She finished middle of the pack on handicap debut at Kempton last months, however she came across to challenge the lead from a wide draw early on and travelled always wide. The fact she actually led briefly over a furlong out is credit to her, I feel. She faded away eventually, but this was a promising run.

Two pounds off the mark, now on turf, this lightly raced filly is fitted with first time blinkers ad a hood as well. If that in combination can eke out a little bit of improvement then Flirtare is in with a more than decent shout.

Selection:
10pts win – Flirtare @ 20/1 PP

Monday Selections: April, 9th 2018

DSC_1062

8.45 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 8.5f

Despite having his season reappearance run, It’s How We Roll is an intriguing contender. Dropping down to a career lowest mark first time on Tapeta on his third run since being gelded, this son of Fastnet Rock could be hard to beat from a good draw.

I feel his performances at Chelmsford and subsequently Windsor, when not far beaten in fourth place off seven and nine pounds higher than his current rating, is form good enough to have a big say in this race.

It’s How We Roll also ran well off breaks in the past; first time Tapeta could eke out a bit of improvement actually, given Fastnet Rock has a pretty fine record with his offspring at Wolverhampton generally.

Low mark, job jockey Luke Morris in the saddle, fine draw and a trip and track likely to suit: It’s How We Roll should go really well.

Selection:
10pts win – It’s How We Roll @ 6/1 VC

Monday Selections: February, 12th 2018

DSC_1062

7.40 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

I was keen on De Vegas Kid when he returned from a break at Lingfield last month. Things didn’t work out that day for him. A wide draw, a less than perfect start, he always raced wide and didn’t receive the smartest of rides challenging the pace throughout widest of all.

Given the circumstances, he ran well in a very competitive race. On the other hand one could say it fits the narrative of his career, as De Vegas Kid always finds a reason to get beat, it seems.

As noted the last time, he has ran some fine races in the past, knocking heavily on the door, more so on the flat than the All-Weather, where he was unlucky not to get his head in front.

Potentially stripping fitter now, another pound off the mark and dropping to the minimum trip might offer a way out of the misery, though. With a good draw, in a very winnable race, De Vegas Kid has no excuses today, but the best chance ever to get this elusive first victory under his belt.

Selection:
10pts win – De Vegas Kid @ 5/1 Bet365

Monday Selections – 16th October 2017

dsc_0292

2.40 Yarmouth: Class 5 Nursery, 7f

Owen Burrows’ Mutafarrid appears to be potentially well handicap on his nursery debut. The Dark Angel colt ran well in his last two races in maiden company – in his second career start he used allot of energy from a wide draw to be up with the pace, yet he finished a good fourth in a hot race that worked out well.

Last time at Wolverhampton he missed the break, got bumped into right after and never settled over too sharp 6f. Still he finished with credit in fifth and this athletic type should enjoy the simpler experience that is 7f at Yarmouth.

Judged on collateral form the opening mark of 69 is more than fair and he should be a bit better than that, I reckon.

Selection:
10pts win – Mutafarrid @ 5/1 Bet365

……

2.50 Musselburgh: Class 2 Handicap, 7f

Big Tour is a progressive three year old colt with few miles on the clock. He won the last two in good fashion, though looked really home over 7f with a good pace on softish ground at Yarmouth last month.

He appears to be progressive and can easily have more to offer. A 6lb hike is reasonable but may not be enough to stop him.

The slight concern is the wide draw for a horse that likes to be close to the speed at a course where your chances rise and fall with track position. At the price I’m siding with him, nonetheless.

Selection:
10pts win – Big Tour @ 7/2 Skybet

……..

4.10 Yarmouth: Class 6 Handicap, 10f

Very weak contest and that opens the door for a surprise package. That could be handicap debutante My Name Is Jeff. He didn’t show an awful lot in three maiden starts, as you would expect. However he bumped into some decent horses along the way too.

This is way easier and ground and trip could suit perfectly. The dam was a sprinter but there is a bit stamina down the lines plus sire Mount Nelson has a fine track record over this trip with his offspring.

A lowly opening mark gives My Name Is Jeff a fair chance to improve dramatically from anything he has shown to date.

Selection: 
10pts win – My Name Is Jeff @ 12/1 Bet365