Tag Archives: Salisbury

Sunday Selections: June, 16th 2019

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

It’s been another pretty quiet week – but, with only the second bet of the week (the first one  came yesterday as well and was a major disappointment, mind) the betting bank got a major boost, thanks to Gold Mount’s (SP 16/1) decisive victory in the Grand Cup at York.

To be honest I didn’t expect that after he drifted badly before the off, only minutes before the race available at 20/1. It was clear expectations were low and my worry this might only be a pipe opener seemed reflected in the market. On the other hand, even then, given his class, which I felt stood above the rest in the field, should see him go close.

In the end Gold Mount outclassed his opposition:

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2.30 Salisbury: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

A quick one for today – I am missing the good prices as just as I made my decision to back this lad his odds start to tumble. Regardless, he remains one to back here – talking about favourite Robert Fitzroy who’ll take a lot to get beaten today.

He drops in grade after a highly encouraging 1 lengths beaten 4th place finish at Doncaster recently. That is fair form and I expect him to be able to improve for the different ground today.

As he ran to a top speed rating of 66 that day, equivalent of his current handicap mark, any improvement this still fairly lightly raced gelding can find, will likely be good enough to get his head in front today.

The ground conditions are the most likely factor that can have positive impact. Robert Fitzroy is a full-brother to smart filly Bolder Bob who is a multiple winner over this sort of trip with plenty of cut in the ground. Big Bad Bob offspring generally tends to perform well in soft ground conditions anyways.

SDS on board is the cherry on the cake.

Selection:
10pts win – Robert Fitzroy @ 3/1 MB

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Saturday Selections: May, 25th 2019

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2.35 York: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 4f

On last season form Ad Libitum is an obvious chance here today, now with a run under his belt, he’ll strip fitter I reckon. With that in mind, his reappearance at Thirsk a fortnight ago is one I happily excuse.

Ad Libitum won twice last year and ran well in defeat a number of times as well. Most importantly is he was able to match his current handicap mark twice in terms of time speed ratings, running to 74 and 76, as well as winning of a 77 handicap a 12f a class 4 handicap at Ripon.

He certainly enjoys fast ground, posting a 25% strike rate and having been placed in four out of eight starts.

Selection:
10pts win – Ad Libitum @ 9/1 MB

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2.55 Chester: Class 2 Handicap, 7.5f

Super competitive race: more than half the field in with a fair shout. At the bigger prices bottom weight Arcanada makes a lot of appeal, though, even though he hasn’t won on turf for a number of years now.

Nonetheless, his overall form profile looks still highly competitive, and the surface isn’t an issue. More the fact that he found life tough in hot races, racing of high marks.

Arcanada has now dropped to a tasty mark of 88 – on turf alone he has ran to TS ratings of 90+ on five occasions throughout his career and he matched a 89 TS rating last December winning a Listed contest on the All-Weather.

The 6-year-old is a course specialist also, having a 50% strike rate here. His draw is wider than ideal for his running style, but with a visor fitted for the first time and a good 5lb claimer on board I hope he can bounce out of the gates and then hold on for the lead.

Selection:
10pts win – Arcanada @ 25/1 MB

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6.50 Salisbury: Class 5 Maiden Stakes, 6f

It’s a small sample size, but Kyllachy offspring have a fabulous record in Salisbury maiden races over the years. His offspring generally performs well here, particularly the 3-year-olds.

That is the reason why I am interested in his daughter Twilighting in this particular race. She amplifies the sire angle with an encouraging debut run herself coincidentally.

A fortnight ago at Lingfield she didn’t have the best of starts, was subsequently badly outpaced but found her rhytm from 4f out and looked suddently threatening over 2f out. The early effort to catch up took its tool eventually, but she ran pretty well in these circumstances until the final furlong marker.

The fast ground looks sure to suit today with a good jockey in the saddle, Twilighting could be well capable outrunning her price tag.

Selection:
6pts win – Twilighting @ 22/1 MB

Edit: This has been absolutely smashed in the betting since writing the post, is now joint second favourite! 

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7.20 Salisbury: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 6f

Airton looks ready for a big run on his return to the flat for the first time since October. He clearly thrives over fast ground and stays this distance without an issue.

He won of his current mark a similar contest over 2 miles at Catterick last Summer – a piece of form that looks strong.

Over this sort of trip and ground Airton has achieved multiple 80+ RPR’s as well as having run to a career best TS rating of 79, which he also achieved on the All-Weather. As he ran to a 83 RPR when winning the last time, which isn’t that long ago, it suggests with the right conditions, of his current mark Airton can be a big runner in this class and type of race.

Having fine Finley Marsh on board claiming 3lb is the cherry on the cake, I feel.

Selection:
10pts win – Airton @ 7/2 PP

Sunday Selections: April, 28th 2019

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

5.40 Salisbury: Class 6 Lady Amateur Handicap, 7f

Normally this isn’t my type of race and I’m not sure if I’m comfortable watching it later on; but I dearly hope Miss Imogen Mathias won’t fall off Winklemann, who has a cracking chance otherwise.

The Italian import hasn’t exactly taken British racing by storm. As a consequence he remains a maiden in this sphere and tumbles down the weights. Down to a mark of 59, the son of Rip Van Winkle has shown glimmers of hope here and there in the past, though, of much bigger marks and in better races.

He was an agonisingly close second at Windsor last summer off 70, running to a TS rating of 69 that day; the form looks rock solid, so does a 4th place finish in September at the same place when even 3lb higher.

Winklemann also seems to be racing himself into a bit of form, judged by a good runner-up performance at Chelmsford at the end of March, even though he couldn’t quite kick on from there days later at Southwell, when receiving a shocking ride by Miss Mathias.

Dropping down to 7f on fast ground, with a good draw to play with – granted he doesn’t bottle the start, which he can from time to time – Winklemann has a big chance to run well in a poor contest.

Selection:
10pts win – Winklemann @ 13/1 MB

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5.55 Wetherby: Class 6 Handicap, 5.5f

Two selections in this open contest for me: the mare Dandilion dropped to a handy mark as well as finding herself back in a class 6 handicap on the turf. She’s right home here and 5lb below her last winning mark.

She had a wind operation last autumn and subsequently ran well in two starts on the All-Weather earlier this year. Her return to the turf at Pontefract recently after a two months long break was merely a pipe opener and I happily draw a line under that poor performance.

Ground will be fine, the trip may stretch her a little bit, but given she is so well handicapped on past form, running five times to a higher TS rating than her current mark, I hope the additional 110y won’t be an issue today.

The other one potentially well in here is Roaring Rory. He’s got form over both 5- and 6 furlongs, and will enjoy any further drying of the ground.

Racing off 3lb lower than his last winning mark, and 5lb lower than his last turf winning mark, with good 3lb claimer Jamie Gormley in the saddle, he can run a big race, given he achieved a TS rating higher than his current handicap mark on seven occasions already.

A recent pipe opener at Thirsk after a little break  was a fair performance in a big field. Though, I do expect him to come on quite a bit for it today.

Selection:
5pts win – Roaring Rory – 14/1 Coral
5pts win – Dandilion @ 17/1 MB

Sunday Selections: April, 29th 2018

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Despite drifting out to a 6/1 SP, Candidate (7/2) won with plenty to spare in the end to make it two on the trot after Mancini kicked this week off in the best possible way a couple of days ago. A hat-trick wasn’t to be, though. Toy Theatre ran well but only managed 3rd place.

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2.30 Salisbury: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

It’s fair to say Pack It In has not shown a lot for his new yard since switching to Alexandra Dunn last summer. Jumping didn’t work out and he never seemed to take to the sand racing during the winter months.

Back on turf things might be different. He returns to grass a full 10lb lower than when finishing a good runner-up at Bath in a class 4 Handicap back in August. He’s also 5lb and 11lb lower than his last two winning marks.

Pack It In has no problem with cut in the ground, in fact it seems to be what he prefers. So the tough going might well be in his favour here. The fact that his two highest time speed ratings (68) came last year off similar handicap marks suggest to me he could potentially incredibly well handicapped now.

Selection:
10pts win – Pack It In @ 6/1 GB

Friday Selections: 25th August 2017

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That was special, wasn’t it? Yet again. Enable keeps giving and giving and giving. What a star filly once more in the care of John Gosden. Sure, she was entitled to win and to win with something to spare. Still, to demolish her high class rivals in the way she did – you simply have to be impressed.

All systems go for the Arc now. She is a short favourite to land the biggest of them all. If she turns up in top form she will take plenty of beating. That says we know the Arc is a unique race in its own right and in a big field the draw can alienate chances in the blink of an eye.

Anyways; that’s for another day. For now, sit back and enjoy racing at its best:

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6.20 Salisbury: Class 5 Nursery, 1m

27 alerts in my tracker this morning – yet only one single selection remains after a long morning of intense study. This week has not been a lucky one so far. Can a Richard Hannon trained colt turn the table?

Galactic is his name and he is quite a well bred son of Roderic O’connor. Three obligatory starts in maidens, now first time in a Nursery and upped to a more suitable 1 mile trip – off a pretty handy opening mark, I reckon Galatctic can go really well in this very winnable race.

Selection:
10pts win – Galactic @ 11/2 Bet365

 

Thursday Selections – 17th August 2017

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Wolfcatcherjack was an impressive winner today, though it could have been a super day if Kryptos wouldn’t have been beaten by a head in a tight finish. Scoones and Regal Mirage were not quite good enough, though.

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4.50 Salisbury: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Ryan Moore on board for the sole runner of father Gary at Salisbury – interesting. Grand Myla is also interesting because she made an okay seasonal reappearance at Bath last month and drops now to a career lowest- and more realistic mark.

Conditions should suit and she has a good draw. Stripping fitter for the latest run and potentially with a bit of improvement left given she was a late foal, I feel she is overpriced here.

Selection:
10pts win – Grand Myla @ 8/1 William Hill

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6.30 Yarmouth: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Call Me Grumpy deserves another chance after he was disappointingly turned over odds-on the last two times, though the Carlisle effort was most disappointing. However he seemed not to enjoy that experience that day, and a simpler test at straight Yarmouth may suit better.

He drops in class but remains largely up against older horses with not too much to worry from the two other 3yo’s in the field. De Sousa gets the leg up which is a boost given his record for the stable and at this track plus he rode Call Me Grumpy to victory at Sandown on handicap debut.

Selection:
10pts win – Call Me Grumpy @ 4/1 Bet365

Wednesday Selections – 16/08/2017

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Two on the bounce – Incentive took the 2.15 at Ffos Las in excellent style today (advised 12/1, R4 applies). The filly took – as hoped – full advantage of a career lowest mark with conditions to suit.

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3.20 Salisbury: Class 4 Handicap, 1m

Kryptos has improved with each start since switching yards, running really well on debut for John Barry returning from a long break at Newmarket. On the day beaten in third only by individuals rated 91 and 100 now.

Race fit he went to Chester and finished from a near impossible position super strongly to win on handicap debut. Form and ratings suggest he could easily follow up off his revised mark. Conditions pose no trouble, only the draw is a slight concern.

Selection:
10pts win – Kryptos @ 6/1 Bet365

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5.15 Beverley: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

Rarely you see horses winning four on the bounce, even less so completing a five-timer! Regal Mirage, though, has excellent credentials to achieve the feast.

Massively improved with experience and going handicapping, the three year old has matched or exceeded his handicap mark both for time speed- and RP rating the last two times, suggesting he continues to improve and may have still more to offer.

Conditions and trip cause no trouble and his prominent and hard hitting racing style should be perfect for a track like Beverley. Only one other 3yo in the field – I believe there is one more win in this lad.

Selection: 
10pts win – Regal Mirage @ 5/2 Bet365

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8.10 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

The Fanshawe yard usually goes really well in these type of races during the summer and has a fantastic chance with handicap debutante Scoones to score.

The 3yo had three obligatory maiden runs without setting the world alight however has been gelded after the first two runs and subsequently travelled like the winner coming off a break at Chelmsford lto just to fade away late without being ridden too hard.

An opening mark of 65 looks potentially lenient given he matched this in terms of RPR in his last run and his sire has a super record on the All-Weather plus the mare is prolific in producing successful offspring.

Selection:
10pts win – Scoones @ 5/1 Skybet

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8.45 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

SP’s in the three maiden runs Wolfcatcherjack had this year are a clear indicator his future would be going handicapping. This moment has arrived and at the same time he steps up dramatically in trip for a trainer who is the master of exploiting the handicapping system.

Wolfcatcherjack is pretty well bred, hailing from a fine family and it is rather likely that he will easily leave his maiden form behind quickly. His opening mark looks stiff enough for what he has achieved so far but taking everything into calculation it may well be a gift.

Selection:
10pts win – Wolfcatcherjack @ 11/4 Paddy Power