Tag Archives: All-Weather

Wednesday Selection: 18th October 2017

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A nice winner with Mutafarrid (6/1) got the week rolling on Monday, although the other two selections on the day ran stinkers. Well, it would have been too nice, I guess. There was not much to like on Tuesday, but thankfully the next day is just around the corner…

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2.20 Lingfield: Class 5 Novice Stakes, 5f 

The two fillies at the head of the market set a fair standard, however their form is nothing to shout about and while experience counts for quite a bit in these races I side with a completely unknown quantity.

It looks significant that Silvestre De Sousa is on board of newcomer Baileys Excel. That is because the colt is quite well bred and his sire does incredibly well at this track over this trip, particularly with two year olds.

Now the jockey booking is even more so significant as this yard’s record in these type of races with young horses isn’t good. However the record for SDS on Dwyer inmates, particularly 2yo’s is excellent.

From a good draw where the door is wide open for an upset, Baileys Excel might be the one who is good enough on debut to win this.

Selection:
10pts win – Baileys Excel @ 10/1 Bet365

Saturday Selections – 7th October 2017

Wet Dundalk Polytrack

8.15 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

Shocking race, despite the large field. Screams for an upset. Innish Man can be the one who causes it. An upset on last seasons form it wouldn’t be that much, however he’s been off for a long time and got merely a pipe opener under the belt a fortnight ago.

We don’t know whether he has regained full fitness and some of his old “class”, that says he was a progressive performer in low grade All-Weather handicaps in 15/16.

Now 3lb below his last winning mark and a full 6lb below his career highest mark, of which he finished a fair runner-up in a race that worked out well back in January 2016 – anything close to that will see him have a big say off a good draw today.

Selection:
10pts win – Innish Man @ 16/1 Bet365

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9.15 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 9.5f

I do fancy Bebette quite a bit on her debut for a new yard plus first time over this trip and on the All-Weather. The switch to Tapeta over 9.5f should suit her much better than she shorter distances the encountered in her four starts to date.

She remains lightly raced, we may not need to read too much into her four disappointing career outings to date, three came in maiden company and one in a 16-runner Handicap at Yarmouth.

A fair 5lb on board is an added bonus I suspect, with a potentially lowly mark of 53 Babette could easily run a big race.

Selection:
10pts win – Babette 6/1 Ladbrokes

Friday Racing Tips

2.30 Musselburgh: Maiden Stakes, 5f

This shapes like a two-horse-race with slightly more experienced Faithful Promise heading the betting at the moment, closely followed by Fahey’s colt Shobrom.

The filly was arguably unlucky the other day when an agonisingly close runner-up. However she goes against boys now for the first time and it won’t be any easier.

Shobrom ran well on debut in a decent Newmarket maiden that already works out okay and should have decent potential for improvement. Richard Fahey’s form with two year old maidens at Musselburgh is quite tremendous over the years, so Shobrom’s chance is enhanced in my book.

Given both, Faithful Promise and Shobrom, ran to pretty similar form the last time rating wise, you would hope that the colt has more upside given he achieved it first time out.

Selection:
10pts win – Shobrom @ 13/8 Paddy Power

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3.40 Lingfield: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

This looks like an ideal opportunity for Mark Johnston to follow on from his tremendous record as this track with fine sprinter Highly Sprung. The four year old ran with plenty of credit at Leicester when last seen and remains on his last winning mark too.

However he drops to 5f, a trip he only ran twice over in his career. With his early pace and a decent draw this could suit perfectly here at Lingfield, where Zebedee offspring has a sensational CD record.

Given Highly Sprung ran numerous times to higher RPR’s than his current handicap rating and having been rated 10lb higher only back in September 2016, there is a pretty good chance that he has a bit in hand with conditions very likely to suit.

Selection: 
10pts win – Highly Sprung @ 9/2 Bet365

Good Friday Racing

Good Friday, long Easter weekend, no Alcohol….. something isn’t right in this list. I have to work while everyone doesn’t and I’m not allowed to down a well deserved drink in the pub afterwards…. What’s good about that???

Well, what’s certainly good about Good Friday is the excellent All-Weather Champions Day which has been going from strengths to strengths since its introduction a couple of years back.

If you enjoy the sand racing – as I do – and if you enjoy even more so decent horses running on it, well, then Friday is indeed Good Friday!

Some selections for the day as follows below – hopefully following on from two winning days in succession – what a rare feast that has been for quite some time. But thanks to Outcrop on Wednesday, who won at tasty odds of 8/1, things look slightly less bleak than they did a week ago or so.

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2.10: Lingfield: AW Marathon Championships, 2m

I have set my eyes firmly on First Mohican here, fourth in this race last year, when incredibly unlucky. He travelled like the winner for most parts but didn’t get a run whatsoever.

He had a busy campaign subsequently, ended it winless, however was placed in some big Handicaps, including an excellent runner-up effort in the Cesarewith!

After a small break during the winter he returned in a conditions race at Kempton, finished a fine third, then went on to win the Fast Track Qualifier over the 2m at Lingfield last month in good style, suggesting he is still as good as ever.

Now, he can start slowly and might be outpaced early on, as a result may well find himself far off the pace, similar to last year. No doubt he will need all things to fall right in order to win, but in an open race he’s a very big price.

Selection:
10pts win – First Mohican @ 20/1 Bet365

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3.10 Lingfield: AW Sprint Championships, 6f

Most of these have collateral form and it is quite hard to split them. Royal Birth looks a prime candidate if he could bring his form to this longer trip, though the form selections would be Kimberella and surely the most likely winner has to be Lancelot Du Lac.

Front running Mythmaker from pole position has the ability to steel the race wheres Boom The Groom at his best has a huge shout.

The “x-factor” in the race is Godolphin’s Pretend. He won this very race two years ago. Since then things did not go right. After yet another absence he returned to the track at Kempton in February and showed that still possesses above average ability when easily sprinting away in a slowly run race, travelling powerfully in rear throughout.

The next two times here at Lingfield things went horribly wrong. In the Cleves Stakes he got a bump soon after the start and was set alight as a consequence, despite racing keenly he found extra in the closing stages but was then short of room when it mattered most.

Dropped to 5f the next time he bottled the start and in a race where you had to be at least prominently positioned in order to have a chance he lost the race right there. Nonetheless sectionals tell its own story and he ran a huge race according to them, though he looked fairly awkward in the home straight.

Making excuses for a horse twice is a never a good sign but I’m inclined to do so for Pretend. He’s better than what he has shown the last two times, is a former winner of this race, a Group 3 winner on the All-Weather and his overall record suggests he is the most talented individual in this race.

The wide draw does not help today, or does it? I suspect it’s better for him so he can come with a big sweeping run on the outside turning for home and then his electric change of gear might see him pick off the leaders, instead of facing a wall of horses.

Selection:
10 pts win – Pretend @ 5/1 Skybet

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4.40 Lingfield: AW Middle Distance Championships, 1m 2f

Favourite Convey produced a massive performance on his reappearance lto and is fancied for good reasons. But is he that much better than the rest as the odds suggest? Unlikely in my book.

You can make a case for a handful of horses, yet the most interesting is Battalion. He loves this course and distance, won twice here this winter, including a listed contest.

He is clearly a quirky character as seen in the Winter Derby and those antics cost him every chance. as a standard he is slowly away and that will make life difficult in a race without a lot of pace today yet again.

But despite his antics he ran incredibly well judged on sections the last two times and that swerve in his direction: if he is on a going day then he clearly has the ability to pick them all up and win.

Selection:
10pts win – Battalion @ 6/1 Bet365

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2.55 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Against the odds I feel Ruth Carr’s five year old gelding Chaplin Bay looks an overly big price on his seasonal reappearance. He ran well as a fresh horse in the past so it would not be a surprise to see him return to form.

He seems to be an exposed sort on turf, however not so much on the sand, where in two career starts he finished runner-up in a Dundalk maiden and fourth in a hot Handicap last season.

Off his current mark he may could still find a bit of improvement on the All-Weather; in fact his breeding suggests there might well be more to come. Fastnet Rock offspring outruns the odds year after year, even more so over the 7f trip and very much so this season at Newcastle.

Selection:
10pts win – Chaplin Bay @ 16/1 PP

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3.30 Bath: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 3.5f

Richard Hannon’s Hushood is thrown into the deep end here on his handicap debut of a rather biggish looking opening mark, judged on what this lad this as a juvenile.

But he is expected to improve big time for the trip. He’s nicely bred and a full-brother to Group 3 placed Seaport. His family is stamina laden and has also form on fast ground, though Hushood himself showed his best  in a maiden on good to soft last year, beating a short odds-on favourite from the Gosden yard, who subsequently franked the form.

Interestingly Hushood is by sire Champs Elysees who has a tremendous record over this trip and on firm ground, which gets even better at this Bath track  – a small sample size it is, but the numbers look significant.

All in all Hushood makes appeal as there is a good chance he finds the improvement needed in these conditions to overcome a mark of 86.

Selection:
10 pts win – Hushood @ 13/2 Skybet

Exciting Eagle Creek one for the Future

Nice to see confidence justified – at last! I said it last night, the opening maiden of today’s Lingfield card unleash a potentially smart colt in the making. And so it was.

Favourite Eagle Creek (SP 9/4) didn’t make any mistake on his seasonal reappearance. He grabbed the lead soon after the start and never gave it away. He won with ease by six lengths, never touched.

Jockey Andrea Atzeni, who made the journey to Lingfield Park for this sole ride, was delighted afterwards:

“He enjoyed himself in front and picked up really well. He was always going to be a better horse as a three-year-old.”

The future looks bright for Eagle Creek now. How bright remains to be seen. But he looked physically improved, gave the impression of a strong and scopey colt. It clearly helps that he hails from a good family by Raven’s Pass out of listed placed Blue Angel and a half-brother to listed race- and multiple Meydan winner Viren’s Army.

What’s next? I’d say they step him up in class rapidly to find out how good he really is. He does not look like a handicapper but more like an individual with a future in some nice pattern races. Certainly one for the tracker, one way or the other.

Race Video – 2.00 Lingfield

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4.30 Catterick: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

It’s always difficult to make a decision if you fancy two horses in the same race, so do I here with Coquine, who seemingly finds her first real opportunity on turf after a fruitful winter. She could potentially remain well handicapped with blinkers fitted.

But tentatively I side with Lackaday who won this very race off 8lb higher last year. He was no chance given by the handicapper subsequently but has finally dropped down to a very handy mark again.

He changed yards in the meantime and ran extremely well on his reappearance over sharp 5f at Newcastle last month. He finished an excellent 3rd that day – a performance that suggests he finds back to his best form.

Selection:
10pts win – Lackaday @ 6/1 Betfair SB

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2.20 Nottingham: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

It’s only the second start for the filly Blitz since moving to the UK from Ireland where she showed plenty of promise as a juvenile. She finished a close second on her seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton in February which was also her UK debut.

That day she tried to make all and set a good pace from the front but just got a bit tired in the end it seemed while also still showing signs of greenness at the start and turning around the final bend.

This form looks rock solid and a return to turf on a straight track with fast ground could see her putting her best foot forward. In similar conditions she went only half a lengths down in a Curragh maiden behind a subsequent Group 3 scorer last year.

Selection:
10pts win – Blitz @ 9/2 Bet365

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5.20 Nottingham: Class 5 Handicap, 10f

Outcrop, the son of Rock Of Gibraltar makes plenty of appeal on his Handicap debut over a trip more suitable than what he raced over in three maidens as a juvenile.

His opening mark looks potentially lenient given he already ran to a similar RPR on his final start last season over a trip likely to short. He looks one who’s sure to improve with age and experience too.

Lightly raced sons of ROG tend to improve dramatically over the 1m 2f trip and if that isn’t enough then trainer Hughie Morrison has a fine record at this course over the last number of years.

Selection:
10pts win – Outcrop @ 7/1 Betfair SB

Wednesday Selections

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

Three All-Weather meetings on a Wednesday – flat racing at its finest! Ah, well, not quite, I guess. But soon the proper racing on the green grass is back in all its richness. Until then we have to deal with what we got and that is low-class sand racing.

It’s still a surprisingly compelling day of racing with some interesting fields across the board at Southwell, Lingfield and Kempton. And while I try to stay away from these type of races as much as I can these days, I couldn’t help myself but find three horses to back:

2.30 Southwell

Comprise looks a fair favourite and is likely hard to beat if anywhere near full race fitness which looks assured with Spencer coming to Southwell for this single ride. But there is at least a small question mark on that front as well as whether the gelding has wintered well.

Hungarian Rhapsody will enjoy the step up in trip after running well the last too times when fancied in the betting. But newcomer Bowed Not Broken looks value at 11/2 in a race where only these three horses appear to be in with a realistic chance.

The daughter of classy sprinter Casper Netscher has the assistance of the excellent Martin Harley in the saddle, while the Burke yard goes strongly recently and did well in the past in these type of races here. It also looks significant that a hood is fitted for the first time.

Selection: 
10pts win – Bowed Not Broken @ 11/2 Sky

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3.50 Lingfield

Muthraab Aldaar has been treated leniently by the handicapper despite a massively eye-catching return after a seasonal break last month at Kempton. He broke very badly that day, was still last with two furlongs to go but made incredible headway marching through the whole field to finish what looked moments before an unlikely runner-up.

He should come on for the run and given he is down to a career lowest rating after having been put up way too high as a three year old after a maiden success he’s here a huge chance in my book.

The trip is a slight worry because he stays a good deal further and Lingfield is a speedy track, but with so many things on the plus side he looks a good thing at tasty odds.

Selection:
10 pts win – Muthraab Aldaar @ 5/1 PP

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6.55 Kempton

Those with race experience seem vulnerable so chance is taken with well bred newcomer Altyn Alqa. The filly favours well in the weights and has a fine draw to start off her career in a very winnable race.

The Cox yard didn’t have many runners lately but those send out ran extremely well. Furthermore Clieve Cox did well in these Kempton maidens and can get them ready for their debut Luke Morris in the saddle rides this track and trip quite well too.

Selection:
10pts win – Altyn Alqa @ 9/2 Bet365

Monday Fancies – Kempton Park

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3.00 Kempton: Star Of The Stage @ 6/1 Bet365 – 10pts win

I think this horse has not seen to best effect yet since moving to his new yard and was minded on the last two occasions. Now a pound below his last winning mark when romping home over a mile at Lingfield last season he’s of interest. Cheek-pieces are back on – these were off the last three times.

A field that doesn’t appear to have to much pace may suit this lad allot given he has a fine draw and is usually at his best when ridden aggressively.

With Kirby in the saddle I expect a strong front-running ride tomorrow – he might be hard to peg back once let lose in front given he has stamina for further.

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5.00 Kempton: Light Of Air @ 7/1 Coral – 10pts win

Open race with a bit of pace in it. Bottom weight Light of Air with first time blinkers (on the flat) is an interesting contender, slightly overpriced. He’s yet to get off the mark but has been placed on his two starts on the All-Weather lately, both times he finished with plenty of credit.

He looked to win at Kempton when he came with a big run but lacked a bit of focus in the closing stages, whereas he looked again a bit awkward at Lingfield lto in the closing stages.

A mark of 70, blinkers and hopefully a decent pace should help massively and he has a prime chance in my book.