Tag Archives: All-Weather

Saturday Selections: March, 31st 2018

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Good Friday washed out – both selections non-runners thanks to the severe ground conditions at Bath yesterday. Let’s see if today – on Dubai World Cup day (one fancy for the Sheema Classic) – things go more to plan.

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3.00 Musselburgh: Class 2 Handicap, 1 mile

Some of the lesser exposed individuals are interesting, particularly Paco Boy son Fake News. The one I fancy, though, is hardy sort Indomeneo, who has seen plenty of racing as a juvenile.

He is vulnerable to an improver, and will have to overcome a wide draw. However, he has proven himself over this sort of trip and ground last year. He looked good winning two on the bounce at Ripon and Redcar, and he already ran to a TSR of 82 – so of his current mark off 84 he looks a rock solid option.

I like the fact that he is usually up with the pace. Something that is of massive advantage at Musselbourgh particularly in these type of conditions today, I feel. He will need to be sharp at the start, on the other hand – as drawn in 10 is not an easy task.

Selection:
10pts win – Indomeneo @ 7/1 VC

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4.45 Musselburgh: Class 5 Handicap, 5 furlongs

Question marks all over, so I go with one who’s proven to enjoy the ground and might not have shown his best over this sort of trip in these conditions yet: Richard Fahey’s Geoff Potts has a poor win record, however, looked an improved horse last season, particularly with cut in the ground.

He was very consisted in the second half of last season, winning a 6f Handicap on soft ground and going close enough in a handful of races subsequently. A good piece of form over the minimum trip is missing, however only twice in Handicaps did he have the chance and was very much unfancied those times.

With more rain to come, this should turn into a grind and that will suit those who act on this type of ground and stay a bit further. Geoff Potts fits the bill.

Selection:
10pts win – Geoff Potts @ 9/1 Matchbook

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8.45 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 6 furlongs

Money is already pouring in, yet top weight Fareeq looks still a tasty price. He’s a tricky sort who can make a mess of things at the start and can hang violently in the finish, however judged on his two last CD runs here at Chelmsford he should be bang there when it matters.

He won here in January in fine style, running to a time speed rating of 61 and finished subsequently a good runner-up off a revised mark, when things did not go his way as he missed the break from a widish draw and travelled always wide mostly off the bridle.

Pretty much the same story at Kempton the last time, now back at Chelmsford, a kinder draw and a mark of 60 should give him a big chance with a good 5lb claimer in the saddle.

Selection:
10pts win – Fareeq @ 12/1 VC

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5.10 Meydan: Sheeema Classic, 1m 4f

The Japanese Rey De Oro and Arc runner-up Cloth Of Stars head the market, and probably rightly so. However, at given prices, I do fee Hawkbill is the forgotten horse and way too big.

He had a fine comeback run here at Meydan earlier this months. Overcoming a wide draw and travelling wide throughout, he grinded it out eventually. This is much tougher today, obviously, but that was as good a reappearance as you could expect and shows Hawkbill is still close to his best form.

William Buick is in the saddle of the five times Group winner, including the 2016 Coral Eclipse. I hope he will have Hawkbill close enough to the pace. Stall seven is wide enough but Hawkbill has the pace to get across quickly.

He is not the best horse in the race, but if he gets an ideal run, he could be hard to pass, given race fitness is ensured.

Selection:
10pts win – Hawkbill @ 11/1 PP

Thursday Selections: March, 29th 2018

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4.05 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap, 1 mile

A trappy affair where at least half the field make some sort of appeal. Yet, Bobby Biscuit is the one I really like here on his handicap debut.

A big, scopey individual, who didn’t run his race in a hot conditions stakes contest earlier this months, he probably wasn’t helped by the eventual winner who jumped into his lane while turning for home, as a consequence Bobby Biscuit lost momentum. He didn’t look to travel all that well at this point anyway, though, this was the final nail in the coffin.

He won a Novice Stakes in January, however. Overcoming an awkward start and subsequent keenness. He looked idling once in front but held on to win what looks like a fair contest, given the runner-up subsequently franked the form with another strong runner-up display behind a 92 rated individual.

Thanks to collateral form a case can be made for Bobby Biscuit having a good chance to be a bit better than his opening mark off 79. Given he was a January foal and looks physically quite strong his chances to win another race or two in the first half this year look enhanced.

Selection:
10pts win – Bobby Biscuit @ 17/2 Unibet

Saturday Selections: March, 17th 2018

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The week-long Cheltenham Bonanza is over. Native River crowned as the new king. A thrilling finish up the legendary hill of Prestbury Park saw the eight year old edge out favourite Might Bite. While I enjoy the replay of this epic battle one more time, it’s back to bread and butter later on….

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8.45 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1 mile

A really poor race, even for this class. Given that I’ll side with Emigrated once more. I did so on two different occasions already this year.

Still a maiden after 13 career runs, there is little in his bare form to suggest he can win. However, closer examination suggests that with a tiny bit of improvement, particularly in a poor contest as this, he can go very close.

Actually, his last two starts on the All-Weather were a lot better than the naked result might tell. Last time out at Chelmsford he finished well among much higher rated horses. Three 60 rated horses only three lengths or less in front of him, a 68 rated individual a nose behind him.

Back in January at the same venue he travelled very strongly and for a moment looked like to be in with a massive shout. He faltered late to finish 6th eventually. He clearly has an issue seeing out his races, so the slight step up to the 8.5f does not seem necessarily ideal. On the other hand, races at Wolverhampton over this trip in smallish fields can be run at a slow pace.

That, plus the appliance of the tongue-tie can help. Main question remains: if he can win with a tiny bit of improvement based on recent runs, where is the improvement coming from?

Surface. This is Emigrated’s first try on Tapeta. While Tapeta isn’t all that different from Polytrack, it still seems some horses tend to prefer one or the other. Emigrated is a son of Fastnet Rock. A key piece in this case I gonna make.

Fastnet Rock offspring has an excellent record on Tapeta, regardless whether it is Newcastle or Wolverhampton. A better one than at any other All-Weather surface. Compared to his overall AW record, Fastnet Rock actually produces profit and solid positive ROI on Tapeta.

So there is it: if Emigrated is ever going to win a race, today is his best chance. A poor field, he has solid enough form in the bock, track should suit and trip may not be an issue either.

Selection:
10pts win – Emigrated  16/1 VC

Wednesday Selections: February, 28th 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

6.45 Newcastle: Class 7 Handicap, 1 mile

As poor a race as you would expect for this lowest of classes which looks. Nonetheless Optima Petamus should have a cracking chance dropping down to a mile.

The six year old has, despite an overall poor strike rate, a pretty fair record on the All-Weather, and has been running to time speed ratings in the past suggesting anything close to those past forms will see him being hard to beat.

Optima Petamus has shown good form in the last couple of weeks. Most importantly on his most recent outing, when third at Newcastle over 10f. He was keen early on and was up with the pace, looked like winning but got tiered as the eventual winner stayed on from far back in the field.

Rhe drop to a mile should help now. A better pace should ensure he settles better and the fact remains Optima Petamus’ only win came over the mile distance. With a competent 7lb claimer in the saddle this looks a golden opportunity for Optima Petamus.

Selection:
10pts win – Optima Petamus @ 9/2 VC

Thursday Selections: February, 22nd 2018

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8.00 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap , 1m 2f

A competitive race as it’s hard to rule any of the eight starters out completely. However, Ourmullion is the one that catches my eye for a variety of reasons.

The four year old gelding found 11- and 12 furlongs too far in his last two outings, although the Kempton run looks a solid form in general.

Down to 1m 2f again, he looks competitive in this contest. He won two on the bounce over course and distance in September, followed up in December here with an excellent effort in a red hot contest.

Ourmullion still hasn’t too many miles on the clock, particularly on the All-Weather and the 10 furlong trip. His current handicap mark off 77 is workable and from a good draw he should have not too many excuses today.

Selection:
10pts win – Ourmullion @ 8/1 Bet365

Friday Selections: February, 16th 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

2.35 Lingfield: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Down to a very dangerous mark, as well as down in class on the back of an encouraging run, Van Huysen looks to be in with a major shout in this contest.

The six year old is a multiple Course and distance winner, he won of 77 and 80 respectively back in 2016 here and ran well of even higher marks.

The son of Excellent Art has been rather disappointing on a number of occasions ever since, however, dropping to a very low mark now, I thought his recent run a muddling class 3 Handicap was as good as his best.

He was left wanting in a very undesirable position once the pace increased over 3f out after the field was crawling along for most parts, that meant he didn’t really have a chance to better than the bare result – however he finished as fast if not faster the last three furlongs than those horses in front of him.

The handicapper drops him another couple of pounds and in this easier grade and bigger field things might fall a little bit more his way. If they do, he’ll be bang there.

Selection:
10pts win – Van Huysen @ 8/1 Bet365

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8.45 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

There is no doubt in my mind that Alfonso Manana is a well handicapped horse in this race today. His penultimate form of a four pound higher mark in very competitive Chemlsford Handicap gives him a big chance here.

This four year old son of Dutch Art has only a win in a claimer to his name, however, he ran well in a handful of decent maiden races last season.

I believe you can forgive him his comeback run in early January this year and his most recent Southwell performance, but his Chelmsford run and some other performances from last season do give him a big chance, if he runs to that sort of level today, off 59 mark.

Selection:
10pts win – Alfonso Manana @ 5/1 Bet365

Wednesday Selections: February, 13th 2018

Wet Dundalk Polytrack

2.20 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Fiery Breath won eighteen days ago over Course and Distance when I was sweet on him – and I expect a similar sort of outcome this time again. Same facts as brought forward the other day apply here:

this son of Bated Breath has a pedigree to do well on the All-Weather and the fact he is still not gelded after his juvenile season suggested there is some belief he could turn out slightly better than anything he has shown to date.

He was not disgraced in three starts in tough maidens last season where he usually travelled well but faded in the closing stages. Connections opted for a wind operation subsequently and that has worked in so far as Fiery Breath won on his seasonal debut, as mentioned before.

He travelled sweetly throughout, clearly suited by the fact pace. The imposing colt didn’t quite shake off hi rivals as easily as one would have hoped given he turn for home on the bridle.

However, first time up from a lay-off and the first run since the wind op, he was entitled find things not all that easy in the finish – he’s likely to improve for the run and the experience of knowing he can properly breath in the closing stages, though.

A 4lb hike of his handicap mark looks potentially undervaluing that performance. Fiery Breath is still very low mileage, it’ll be only his second Al-Weather- and Handicap start  and this looks not an overly strong race in general.

Selection:
10pts win – Fiery Breath @ 2/1 VC

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7.45 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

A female dominated field but the cock of the walk Swissie has a good chance to follow-up on his fine Newcastle success over the minimum trip.

He met some of these that day and probably would have won with a bit more in hand than the bare result suggested, if not for an awkward start and finding himself sandwiched and subsequently squeezed out at a crucial stage of the race from 2f out.

Swissie had to find his stride quickly- and go full gear again once in the clear deep in the closing stages; he got up his head in front when it mattered most – quite an impressive finish he produced.

His handicap mark has been raised by 4lb, which looks certainly fair, however, on his only fifth career start with a perfect draw to start the race from, he should have every chance to make it two on the bounce here.

Selection:
10pts win  – Swissie @ 11/2 PP