Tag Archives: All-Weather

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 14th May 2024

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3.15 Beverley: Class 6 Handicap: 5f

Digital has been running quite well in two of his runs this season, since coming back from a break and having changed yards over the winter.

A strong third, without getting overly beaten up in the closing stages in 0-85 class was yet another indicator of his wellbeing. He achieved a good speed rating, too.

That came after a disappointing 9/10 at Kempton – however over 6f, from a wide enough draw, where he was pulling hard and not getting to the lead.

His seasonal reappearance, however, rates strongly. At Southwell in March he moved keenly forward from the widest draw. Set a good pace that contributed to some good speed figures achieved in the race. He showed good a good attitude before getting really tired.

The Southwell and most recent Wetherby run give the impression he’s not far off last years form, when he achieved solid 71 and 70 speed ratings, although also fell from a mark 0f 90 to 76.

Digital isn’t the force of old but judged on those last runs has found his current level and could have a couple of pounds in hand now, especially as he drops down to 0-72 level.

He’s got the #2 draw (effectively the #1 due to a non-runner) to attack the race from. Minimum trip and fast ground are fine, although he’s got to shoulder top-weight and may not get his own way completely up front.

Nonetheless, the advantage of his low draw, having the rail to guide him, usually is an advantage over this course and distance.

10pts win – Digital @ 11/2

………

5.50 Killarney: Conditions Race, 1m

Alpheratz sets quite a high standard for this race. Her unlucky second at the Curragh in March, followed up by a fair fifth at Leopardstown, both Group 3 form that has worked out well in the meantime, should give her a cracking chance today.

Saying that, the ground is a good deal quicker than the deep ground she encountered in all her four career runs to date, that’s a significant question mark.

Agha Khan filly Tannola could be smart. She won well when last seen and will surely enjoy moving up to a mile. She remains in the Irish 1000 Guineas for now and offers plenty of upside.

For all that, she didn’t run particularly fast on speed ratings in any of three career runs and she may also enjoy deeper ground.

Obviously Uluru is the most intriguing one, not only because she’s one of my horses to follow this season.

The filly was mightily impressive on her racecourse debut at Gowran Park last summer: from a wide draw where she didn’t get too well away at the start but eventually ran away with it and clocked an excellent 81 speed rating.

That’s the sign of a potentially smart individual. No surprise, she changed hands afterwards and was desperately unlucky for new owners, Team Valor, in her final start last season.

In a big sales race at Naas it wasn’t a good pace and she got stuck in traffic without a way to get out. She still managed to finish well enough to get him in 4th place.

No question she looks capable of turning into a stakes filly this year. She was in a race at Naas at the beginning of the season, though didn’t take up that engagement. Race fitness is a question. She’s never encountered this type of ground, either.T

But there’s plenty of faster ground form in her pedigree and moving up to a mile is a clear positive. The 7lb claim of Wayne Hassett is intriguing and, if she’s race fit, should give her the edge today.

10pts win – Uluru @ 4/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 12th May 2024

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3.30 Longchamp: Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains, 1m

Obviously Henry Longfellow is the one I’m most interested in. One of my horses to follow this year (hardly an original thought, to be fair), he’s got the looks of a potential superstar.

Drawn in #6 the son of Dubawi won’t have many excuses today and I hope he just runs away with it. At the price, it’s hard to justify a bet, in a deep race, though.

Purely from a value perspective I must back Dancing Gemini, who will enjoy a low draw, a prominent racing position and has shown a significant amount of talent as a juvenile as well.

Reportedly having wintered well, connections were deliberate routing their star colt to Longchamp as opposed to Newmarket. Perhaps a wise move, given he should enjoy this test, with the draw and the way the race may pan out a lot better.

The son of Camelot is quite experienced already. Five runs, two wins and he improved significantly for his fist two career runs as well as racing more forward.

He hinted no uncertain amount of talent when sprinting away at Newbury with a first maiden success in August, before romping home in the Scotsman Stakes.

Perhaps committing too early in the Futurity Stakes, Dancing Gemini ran still with plenty of credit in a hot renewal back in October last year.

He’s shown to handle juice in the ground – important today. The step up in trip is sure to suit, given his pedigree, by Camelot and out of a daughter of Australia.

Given this pedigree, it seems noteworthy the tactical speed he showed last year. His talent is underpinned by a fine 73 debut speed rating in June and a strong 99 speed rating when he won at Doncaster.

The exchange prices are way over the top in my view, so I’m happy to back him against the favourite.

10pts win – Dancing Gemini @ 18/1

……..

4.17 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

With the pace chart somewhat muddling, I feel it can be worth to side with proven and happy front-runner Jean Baptiste, who ran incredibly well from the front a fortnight ago at Ayr to finish a gallant 2nd.

No certainty that he can confirm that strong performance, but back on the sand where some of his best career efforts came over the years, especially this CD (regardless of what the naked record says, on speed ratings he ran really well in higher grades here).

Two pounds up and he loses the valuable claim of Jonny Peate today, compared to Ayr, that’s not ideal. But still 3lb below his last winning mark on turf, and the same 79 rating as when an excellent second two years ago over this course and distance.

Jean Baptiste is value at current prices in my book, well capable to outrun the odds in an open race that lacks quality. He’s drifting, though, which isn’t a good sign for this type of horse, to be fair.

10pts win – Jean Baptiste @ 11.5/1

…….

3.07 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Favourite Cross The Tracks looks well drawn but not sure why he’s so short, as the drop in trip doesn’t look ideal and he’s 8lb worth off in the weights than last time.

Yes, that came in a hot class 2 Handicap, so he’s shown a bit of class. But not on speed ratings yet. At that price I’m happy to take him on.

Mr Wonderful and Oakland Princess look intriguing opposition here. If race fit, the Amo Racing gelding could prove better than a 77 rating on his handicap debut.

However, I’m most intrigued by the filly, Oakland Princess, who can race here off a feather weight and should have plenty more to offer.

I felt it was significant that she didn’t take up her entry at Nottingham yesterday, in a race I thought she had a strong chance. Instead she comes here.

The filly ran with plenty of credit on her Handicap debut over this course and distance earlier this month. But she didn’t get a clean run through, was badly stopped in her progress at 1.5f from home, but got going again and finished well under hands and heels.

She appeared still raw in the early stages of the race. With the added experience, and hopefully a clear run today, she’s in with a shot. The draw isn’t ideal, away from the early pace, but Sam James shouldn’t have too much trouble to get across quickly to track the lead.

10pts win – Oakland Princess @ 8/1

…….

5.27 Newcastle: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f

It seems worth to take a chance on Curran in an open race back over the course and distance of his very first career win.

You can forgive his seasonal reappearance at Doncaster in deep ground where he made way too much too soon in any case, in a what was a competitive Handicap, too.

This is easier. There’s competition for the lead from the favourite, but that may well suit, in fact, as Curran can track the pace, as he did when he won twice last year.

Todays run will also be his second after having been gelded over the winter. You’d hope to see a significantly improved performance compared to Doncaster.

10pts win – Curran @ 17/2

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 8th May 2024

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8.30 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

In the hope Bated Breeze is allowed to run on merit today, he looks seriously overpriced in this race tonight. He met some of these before and is better off in the weights over an identical course and distance.

Most importantly, his two runs this season have been noteworthy. He caught the eye early April over this CD especially, which was backed up by a good speed rating that day as well.

From a wider than ideal gate he was awkwardly away and had to settle in rear, trailing the field, keenly enough. He quickened in visually arresting style from 3f out right into the fastest part of the race. He couldn’t quite get back to the leaders who enjoyed the run of the race, though.

Those first two home ran good speed ratings and were clearly well-handicapped on their handicap debuts. Bated Breeze also ran a 62 speed rating and I felt that performances warranted a chunky upgrade, which could mean he’s potentially well-handicapped off 64.

Fancied at Bath the next time, he didn’t run without merit in a seriously strong race, I thought. He couldn’t keep up the red hot pace after travelling strongly behind the leader until 2f out.

A #1 draw today offers options to move forward, as he did the last time. He’ll have to be at his best out of the gate as some pace pressure is expected to move right across from the wider gates.

If that works out well, the gelding should be in a perfect position and can race just off the lead, covered up. Off a mark of 64 he should have pounds in hand today back on the sand.

It’s Tom Queally’s only ride on the card and he was riding well for this yard lately. So that’s a positive, although the betting is the concern I have, with Bated Breeze going the wrong way.

10pts win – Bated Breeze @ 12/1

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 10th April 2024

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4.10 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

The market is dominated by unexposed horses who may or may not be well-handicapped. It makes the pace scenario also potentially muddling.

I feel in this context of the unknown, the rather well-known Johnston filly is underestimated here, given she’s likely to run a solid standard and has excuses for a 0/7 record.

Flowering’s last two runs were seriously eye-catching, in fact. She made the list on her penultimate run over this course and distance when locked in a pace battle and doing way too much way too soon, as the finishing speed % also suggested.

I think she did well to finish as close as she did to a well-handicapped winner who also enjoyed the run of the race. The run confirmed the promise Flowering showed in her previous Handicap runs, in my view.

However, perhaps even stronger was the impression the filly gave last time over this CD once again. In a slowly run race she found herself in the worst position over 3 furlongs out and got badly hampered entering the final bend, which didn’t help her positioning.

She still finished the race strongly, coming home faster than the winner, despite not being fully ridden in the final half furlong.

Left on the same mark, she should be a strong chance dropping back to 0-60 here. Joe Fanning is back on board and given this yard often goes forward, I doubt they’ll make the same mistake again as last time out and utilise the #3 draw.

This could turn into a slowly run race too, and then Flowering will be in prime position, I hope. Whether 12 furlongs prove her best trip remains to be seen. But unless someone else moves forward and sets a testing gallop, which seems unlikely, she should find this a perfect test.

10pts win – Flowering @ 7/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 8th April 2024

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5.20 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Sydney Bay caught the eye on his return from a break and wind op at this track over 6 furlongs last month.

He travelled off the pace on the outside off the pack, not getting the best of cover there. He seemed outpaced in this grade over this trip 3 furlongs out but also didn’t find the clearest passage before strolling home in eyecatching fashion in the final furlong.

That form looks rock solid and if he can improve for the run with his breathing fine, he should be here on Monday a big runner, for various reasons.

The 5-year-old gelding drops significantly in grade, down to 0-55 class, a race also restricted to horses without a win since the 2023 flat turf season. This is a poor contest, the fact a now 48 rated 10-year-old is one of fancied horses, says it all.

Sydney Bay is much more home on this lowly level, obviously. Saying that, down to a mark of 53, with the excellent help of 5lb claimer William Pyle, he’s probably quite well-handicapped here, if he stays the stiff 7 furlongs at Newcastle.

He won off 49 and 51 over 6 furlongs at this venue last October, and did well out of the weights off effectively 56 as a runner-up subsequently and achieved 51 and 52 speed ratings in those winning runs.

Moving up to 7 furlongs should suit, in theory. Ever since this horse came to my attention about two years ago, I thought he’d be much better if he moves to 7f, and possibly further. That hasn’t materialised, in reality, but he stayed on strongly over 6f at this stiff track, has the breeding and tried 6f+ outside maiden company only twice in his career.

Amaysmont and Crocodile Power look solid rivals in this field and both may also enjoy the run of the race toward the stands rail. I hope Sydney Bay will be ridden a bit more forward, though, tracking the pace a couple, as he showed in the past he’s suited to that (31/10/23, career-best performance).

10pts win – Sydney Bay @ 4/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 6th April 2024

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2.50 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

I’m inclined to give ultra-consistent veteran Reverberation a big chance in this race, despite the overall openness of the contest.

He’s one of the few uncomplicated horses in the field, and also highly likely to enjoy the run of the race from a prominent racing position.

That could be crucial today: not too many want to go forward. Some of the contenders are prone to miss the break. Hence, the #11 draw may not be a big deal, as Reverberation is a solid starter and should be able to have an uninterrupted way toward the front of the pack.

Off his current mark he’s handicapped to go well, no doubt. He bumped into a highly progressive winner last time, but ran in line with those performances he showed all winter that suggested he’s got possibly another win in him off 56, in the right circumstances.

The form of his two wins at Chelmsford over a mile and 10 furlongs back in December and January worked out quite well too, ensuring his credentials have real substance.

The 5lb claim of red-hot Joe Leavy should come in handy. He seems a good judge of pace and ridden Reverberation last time as well.

The main danger I thought could be top-weight Lucidity. The light-raced filly could have too much class in this grade, if ready to go on her seasonal reappearance. But the market suggests otherwise, for the now at least, and she’s one to keep an eye on for another day.

Favourite Mc’Ted comes here in good form. He likes this course and distance but he’s handicapped to he’s best form under a 5lb now. Given he can be moody at the start, it’s a risky proposition.

Twilight Guest sees money all morning and is competitive in this grade. 0-17 tells a story, though, and he tends to be seriously keen if the pace is slow.

That always brings me back to Reverberation. The fact he drops ever so slightly down in grade, with a good pace scenario of a fair mark gives him a good chance to score today.

10pts win – Reverberation @ 6/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 29th March 2024

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It’s already a few days ago, but hey, you’ve got to celebrate the winners. It was the first one I could cheer home in a while – granted I had about a handful of bets in the last half year.

Anyway, it was great to see Qitaal win rather comfortably in the end, despite a dramatic drift to 14/1 SP. I was stuck with my 7’s, but that’s no issue at all. Even that represented significant value in my book.

……..

2.40 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

Cephalus looks a seriously poor favourite in this race at such a short price (2/1 at time of writing). He’ll be held up from the #10 draw in a race without much pace and he’s got a bit to find on speed ratings as he’s turned out under a penalty.

The 5-year old improved dramatically over the last weeks and months, winning four and going close twice. This is a different proposition, though, especially off 81 in a race that won’t be run to suit him.

The way the race is likely going to shape, and with his love for the track, Shoot To Kill looks one who may steel this one from the front for Ireland and represents serious value in my mind.

He moved over to Ado McGuinness in early March and ran with plenty of courage in two subsequent starts, both times catching the eye and clearly proving there’s plenty of life in the seven-year-old gelding.

Those were hard races and that’s a bit of a concern. But at the same they may have put him right for this race. He was highly competitive and consistent prior moving to Ireland as well.

Shoot To Kill certainly loves it here at Lingfield. Check out his course record, peel back the first layer and you’ll find a lad who’s ran some huge performances from 7-10 furlongs at this venue not too long ago.

No doubt, his optimum is a mile over this course and distance, though. He won a class 5 Handicap over this CD back in September off 74, running to a 75 speed rating which he franked weeks later over 7 furlongs at the same venue when finishing a strong third.

That mile win looks better than bare form would suggest, given it was only a class 5. His current mark – 78 – with a 3lb claimer in the saddle, gives him a shout over this course and distance, though.

He won a class 3 Handicaps in the past here, and ran his three career-best speed ratings at Lingfield, the two highest over a mile. Taking into account that he looks to hit some good form, it’s not impossible to think he’s able to run to that sort of level again.

But maybe he doesn’t even have to be that good on Friday. The pace should favour those who are ridden forward and it’s unlikely to be overly hot.

Given that, Shoot To Kill should be easily able to overcome the #7 draw and should find himself in prime position as he slings around the final bend.

Shoot To Kill 10pts win – @ 13/1

……..

3.35 Newcastle: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

Not out of question that Cover Up, who’s bidding for a four-timer, can pull out more, even after a hefty 13lb hike for his most recent win at this venue, albeit over the minimum trip.

Though, moving up in trip is a question mark. The dam stayed a mile but her sole victory came over 5 furlongs. He ran a super 90 speed rating last time out. On balance, given he could get a nice lead into the finish as well given his draw and the likely pace, he’s a fair favourite – one that’s beatable, at the same time.

Batal Dubai looks well places from his #9 draw and given there isn’t too much pace competition, could enjoy the run of the race. He’s fairly handicapped, although hardly has much in hand. He always struggled so far to win once he hit the 90s.

Albasheer’s last two winning performances here at Newcastle were brilliant on speed ratings: 102 and 100 – that’s a Group horse. A 110 mark in this type of competitive handicap is also quite a steep task.

He looks well drawn and looks slightly overpriced. I have some question marks because that last huge effort only came a fortnight ago.

The one I feel who’s potentially quite well-handicapped in the context of this race is 7-year-old gelding Misty Grey.

The #5 draw gives him enough options to get a good, prominent position early on, tracking the pace, wherever it develops, given he has a bit of early speed as well.

He clearly showed a return to form in two runs earlier this month after he moved to the David O’Meara yard. The second of those runs came on the 9th of March, hence that hopefully is enough time to recover.

I felt both runs were eyecatching and warranted a slight upgrade, as much as they also suggested a mark off 96 might underestimate him at this point in his career.

At Wolverhampton in a 7f Listed race last time out Misty Grey had to give weight away to higher rated horses and it wasn’t ideal to concede first run to the eventual winner at 2f out, at the most crucial part of that race.

Days earlier at Newcastle, again over 7f, he pulled hard early on and basically tanked his way to the front. He travelled sweetly for a long time before coming under pressure and possibly also got ever so slightly impacted by a faller around the final furlong marker.

Both runs suggested he could do with a drop to stiff 6f…. hello Newcastle I hear you calling? This is his third run since a break and since moving to the David O’Meara yard and he should be primed what will only bis his second run over 6f in over a year – the last time he finished an excellent third in a hot Kempton Conditions race.

The grey gelding wasn’t rated so lowly in over three years, and as explained before, there is solid evidence based on the last two runs, that he’s hitting some strong form. At given prices he seems quite a bit overpriced.

Misty Grey – 10pts win @ 16/1

……..

4.40 Newcastle: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

It’s difficult not to like how Dear My Friend won his last three races since his return as a gelding and from wind operation. A changed horse, so to speak.

Four from four on the All-Weather now, and there s every chance he’s got still much more to offer. For all that he has to prove his lofty rating on speed ratings yet.

He may not have to do so here, as the pace falls right into his lap, if he wants it. He’s also a pretty fair price, at 7/2 currently, very much one I’d consider to back.

However, from a value perspective I just can’t look past Tempus. He’s not getting any younger and was beaten by My Dear Friend back in January. However the race and certainly pace scenario will play out differently this time, and so is the weights difference between the two.

Tempus is also drawn close to My Dear Friend, and may well track him all the way from his #2 draw. Usually also forward, he should equally enjoy the run of the race.

The handicapper has given him an opportunity as well. Dropped him to 102, despite three notable performances this year. He’s not been that low since winning a competitive Ascot Handicap in July 2022.

There is no question that Tempus remains in strong form, though, because he ran a joint career-best (and best on AW) speed rating at Kempton in January on his comeback run. He missed the break that day but finished very strongly as he kicked on nicely from 3f out in a good listed contest.

He fared best from those up with the pace subsequently at Newcastle when he was beaten by My Dear Friend eventually. Another strong performance. And was then a bit too keen when locked in a pace battle in a Listed race at Cagnes last month, where he was still ahead with only 1.5f to go, though.

I feel from a handicapping perspective and pace scenario Tempus got a significant chance to outrun his big price tag here.

10pts win – Tempus @ 23/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 22nd March 2024

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7.15 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

I’m more than happy to take on Glamourous Express who’s turned out under a penalty here after an impressive victory at Kempton last week.

Hugh Taylor seems sweet on this lad, and that’s something to be taken seriously. But off 67 today, over 6f, he’s vulnerable. He’s never ran a significant speed rating beyond the minimum trip to suggest he’s well-handicapped in these conditions.

Captain Vallo could be interesting if there’s a generous pace today. But better days may await for such scenario. Water Of Leith is one to fear in this grade. But at current prices I’ll take a punt on Dream Together off bottom weight.

This is his third run since coming back from a long enough break. He ran better than bare forms suggest in his two starts since then and showed a solid attitude, suggesting there’s life.

The pace scenario will suit today. He should be able to to just sit off The Gay Blade and hopefully can kick on from about 2f out. I can see a scenario play out where he could be hard to beg back with his low weight if he can get separation from the main pack.

Dream Together’s All-Weather record is poor. However, he ran 51 and 54 speed ratings last year over this course and distance. He’s allowed to run off 51 now, a career-lowest mark on sand.

That gives him every chance to outrun his price tag today, at the very least. He should be well placed when it matters most.

10pts win – Dream Together @ 10.5/1

…….

7.30 Dundalk: Handicap, 1m

Intriguing and rather competitive race. A bunch of these met a over the last weeks, hence plenty of collateral form exist, for what it’s worth.

I think not too many will be in this to win tonight, though. Shoot To Kill ran with plenty of promise on his debut for the McGuinness yard. He may find an easier race soon, is my feeling.

Rampage looks in good form and his finish here two weeks ago was noteworthy. He has a tough Irish Lincoln run in his legs, though.

Rockbury Lad impressed visually and on the clock over this CD two weeks ago. Betting suggests today isn’t his day.

Skontonovski will be in the mix, but doesn’t appear overly well-handicapped. Neither – certainly not over this trip -looks favourite Exquisite Acclaim, who is in strong form, but has to defy a high enough handicap mark as a result.

The standout for me in this field is the aptly named Not Forgotten. He caught the eye a number of the times this winter on the Dundalk polytrack.

He remains on the same 79 mark after a strong 3rd place effort two weeks ago over this course and distance.

As often before, he wasn’t the sharpest away from the gate but made rapid progress soon after, and that may cost on the day vital fuel that was missing in the final furlong.

The 4-year-old travelled notably well, though, and made smooth progress from 4f out. If only he could get out of the gates a tiny bit better and perhaps keep his focus in the closing stages.

Good news, the visor is on. That appears the right move and could help him to find the necessary couple of pounds improvement tonight. He’s generally still low enough mileage in handicaps to hope for a little bit better.

Off a 79 handicap mark there is plenty of room for one or two more wins in him, given his profile.

10pts win – Not Forgotten @ 4/1

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers 2024 #1

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Flat Eyecatchers is a list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on turf and sand. Find all previous eyecatchers always here.

Flowering
04/03/24 – 6.00 Wolverhampton:

Tracked pace the setter early on, took him on in an uneconomical battle in the middle of the race. Tried to kick from 4f out but was already tired and eventually faded in the home straight.

Showed promise in two Handicaps prior. The form of all three runs this year appears solid and suggests she could be a bit better than the current mark, perhaps more so over 10 furlongs, given the twelve furlongs possibly stretch her stamina.

She’s lightly enough raced to believe there’s some improvement and races to be won in these lower grades.

Doctor Mozart
04/03/24 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

In a pace battle throughout and doing too much too soon. First three home all came from further back. Showed good attitude keeping on.

Confirmed impression from 19/02 where he didn’t get the ideal trip. Badly hampered next time out in a hot race when up with strong pace once again. Down 1lb below last winning mark now. Seriously interesting in a race where the pace is a little bit less hot than encountered lately.

Kessaar Power
05/03/25 – 6.30 Southwell:

Reared in stalls, then pushed forward quickly to lead and setting a taxing gallop. Never stood a chance to get home over this trip but kept on well for 3rd. Decent speed rating over an inadequate trip.

Saying that 7f on the sand could suit on a different day, though. Down to good mark but may drop a bit further before competitive. This run a clear sign of wellbeing, though.

Watermelon Sugar
06/03 – 5.30 Kempton:

Held up from widest draw, travelling widest of all giving ground away while setting fastest sectionals from five to three furlongs out. Dropped badly away in the closing stages.

Showed enough enthusiasm to suggest he could get back to form at some point after a long break. Interesting for this yard/owners. No surprise to see a vastly improved horse in a couple of runs. The betting will provide clues.

Ran to 65 and 64 speed ratings in the past. Further help from the handicapper and an easier race on the AW will enhance his chances.

Bora Bora
06/03/24 – 6.00 Kempton:

Bit awkward away from the gate, tracked the pace rather keenly after the first furlong. Travelled well enough into the home straight but lacked the gears. Still finished with good attitude in hot contest.

Ran 68 speed rating, matching a surprise eye-catching 3rd place at big odds and 69 speed rating at Chelmsford before. On a good mark and may soon find an easier race over 6f but possibly is better suited to 7-8f as past form indicates. Clearly in form and well-handicapped.

Maybe one for early turf races too. Had limited opportunities there but yard in these colours when owned by Butler tends to do much better on turf too.

Chico Dulce
06/03/24 – 7.00 Kempton:

Made most of low draw to find a perfect spot on the rails, tracking the pace. Good progress between horses when slightly angled out over 2f out, before not able to match the pace of the first three. Ran good 53 speed rating in a hot race.

Will be able to drop into easier race now. Still low mileage and could be ahead of his mark over this sort of trip if dropped to 0-55. Noteworthy run lto too. Notably the change of tactics here too.

Walking In The Clouds
07/03/24 – 2.45 Lingfield:

Widest draw, moved forward and travelled always keen on the outside of the pack. Attempted to make an effort around the home bend but unsurprisingly tired badly.

Will come down to a good mark now. Ran to competitive speed ratings on the All-Weather last year. Best over 6f at Southwell, so one to keep an eye on for that.

Dream Together
07/03/24 – 8.00 Newcastle:

Grabbed the lead to set a somewhat muddling pace. Nonetheless showed an improved attitude and ability to quicken. Did well to stay in the mix for as long as he did.

This was a significant drop in class but also only 2nd run off a long break. Improved performance and he looks ready soon if back on turf. Although, needs fast ground.

Dandys Derriere
08/03/24 – 5.30 Newcastle:

Tracked pace racing more toward the far side. Off the bridle 2f out but kept going nicely without being completely hammered in the final furlong when it became clear a gallant 3rd was the best possible result.

Big run, matched handicap mark on speed ratings. Looks improved lately since wind op and break with four good runs under his belt.

Overall record wouldn’t suggest there’s more to come but this was a seriously deep race. If he finds a slightly easier race, quality wise or drop to 0-68, he could be good enough with a favoured pace scenario to win. Deserves a chance and could be underestimated.

Secret Road
08/03/24 – 5.30 Newcastle:

Dwelt, squeezed out soon after. Not in the best position 2f out. Switched and finished much the strongest in the final furlong. Achieved strong 63 speed rating, in line with current rating.

Down another pound since then, now on his last winning mark. Won in better class this winter over the CD. Looks ready for a big run and usually much closer ridden to the pace as well.

Novak
08/03/24 – 6.00 Newcastle:

Slowly away, in rear having plenty to do over 2f out before urged to move and responded seriously well in the last two furlongs without an overly hard ride.

Clearly returning back to form and on an intriguing mark. Struggles to win on the sand but the green lush grass isn’t far away and should be then in a position to be seriously competitive over 6-7f.

Hence, it’s best to ignore his subsequent start over 7f at Newcastle off 68 when last of ten after dwelling once again.

Not Forgotten
08/03/24 – 7.15 Dundalk:

Missed the break ever so slightly. Made up ground on the inside rapidly, though, but perhaps this early mishap cost him in a tight finish where he couldn’t quite find the kick needed to win in the final furlong.

He travelled smoothly into entering the home straight and this was a competitive heat. Still low mileage enough to believe he could find some improvement. Handicapper has left him untouched.

Same level of form will see him go close in these races in any case. Won quite taking this winter over course and distance as well.

Eccentric
09/03/24 – 6.40 Wolverhampton:

Soon led and set strong gallop. Clear by a couple of lengths. Was reeled in by stalker but fought gamely all the way to the line. Superb run and achieved a whopping 72 speed rating.

Clearly ahead of his mark as run 57 twice before. A mile seems the limit. Still a maiden but seems to finally get the hang of the game. May be too obvious and a short price next time.

Rock Opera
10/03/24 – 4.50 Southwell:

Widest draw, dropped in trailing in last place. Plenty do over 3f out but made superb progress from 4f out all the way to the final furlong, backed up visually any by sectionals, before stamina ran out.

Highly competitive race, over a trip likely too far. A drop to 6f will see him competitive. Any additional help from the handicapper that allows a slight ease in race class will be of benefit. Ran well all winter, including lto in strong 0-85. Won twice in easier races over 6f.

Not quite convinced on speed ratings yet but suspicion is in right conditions he can deliver.

Gobi Sunset
12/03/24 – 8.30 Southwell:

Widest draw, quickly moved forward and grabbed the lead, although always closely followed. Did a lot in the first half of the race and performance warrants upgrade staying in the mix for so long.

Winner was in superb form, which gives the form credibility. Down to last winning mark. Clearly in strong form.

Can go well on All-Weather right now but would be even more intriguing back on turf soon, on decent ground.

First three horses
13/03/24 – 5.20 Kempton:

Seriously interesting Novice Stakes. Strong speed ratings produced and first three home could turn out to be smart prospects to follow for the season, potentially.

The winner British Camp was green on his debut. Missed the break and was early enough off the bridle entering the home straight.

Three light backhanders, finished off nicely under light enough ride to win it on the line, with seemingly much more left in the tank.

Ran five furlongs of the final mile the fastest sectionals, including the final two furlongs, dipping easily under 12s. Very well bred, related to smart individuals. Should be capable of getting 1m 4f but a fast 10 furlongs should also suit.

Runner-up Imperial Sovereign wasn’t smartly away from the gates either, but soon tracked the pace and travelled much the best, on the bridle until 2f out.

All out to the line, he wasn’t good enough to beat the winner, but showed a likeable attitude putting his head down and answering ever call. Won well on debut last year and is a son of smart Imperial Charm. 10 furlongs may be his ideal trip.

Third placed Tribal Star started well, better than in his two prior career runs. Made all and kicked nicely from 3f out. He was beaten by better horses but could be potentially underestimated wherever he goes next.

Impressed on debut last year with a fine 79 speed rating runner-up performance despite missing the break. Followed up with another solid run before the end of the year and showed a nice attitude in this race.

A mark in the mid-80’s could be underestimate him, especially if he steps up further in trip, judged on pedigree.

Jungle Charm
14/03/23 – 6.15 Southwell:

Widest draw, rapidly moved forward to just grab the lead entering the home turn. The damage was done at that point, but did well to stay in the action for a long time.

Should be solid form. Could unlock improvement for experience. Also not impossible to step up to 7f. A slightly less competitive race should see her really well placed to win another race.

Fine Wine
15/03/24 – 6.20 Newcastle:

Off to a flying start, set a seriously fast pace early on. Noteworthy how long he stayed in front. Highly competitive race as well. Must have regained some good form, second off a break.

Should drop further in the weights, and interesting if he returns at Southwell over the minimum trip, ideally in an easier race. Not won in a while but over that CD always dangerous.

Betting

Saturday Selections: 11th November 2023

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Bit of an unlucky spell right now. Haworth Star beaten in a photo. Probably was ahead right behind the line. Bunch of good runs for my selections lately, half of them placed, but no wins to show. Agonising.

Especially when you leave some unbacked that turn out to win…. the normal ups and downs of betting, I guess. A winner would be nice, though.

……

6.30 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

A weak contest and a weak favourite. I can’t have Cavalluccio in this race at all. Even though he seems to go better after a wind op, he still has to find something on speed ratings and isn’t exactly unexposed after 21 runs.

In contrast, I love the look of Blue Yonder dropping down to class 6, with the visor added, from a good draw, in a race with little pace to fight off in the early stages.

The gelding ran with plenty of credit this season, and his last two runs confirmed he’s back to his best, in my view.

He finished 9/12 last time at Newcastle but travelled well for most of the race in a competitive affair where, perhaps, things didn’t quite work out with the way the race ultimately developed. It was a better performance than the bare form suggested, though.

Prior at Wolverhampton he was only beaten in a tight finish, where the ride he received versus the rider the winner received made all the difference. With that in mind, off the same mark today, he is well-handicapped in my view.

That’s without taking into consideration a better jockey booking today and a pace scenario that will ensure Blue Yonder can move forward and be in the right spot throughout the race, which will surely be up with the pace.

He won twice earlier this year, up to 10 furlongs on soft turf. So the trip isn’t an issue. He also won on the sand over 9.5 at Wolverhampton, and was subsequently only a neck beaten at Weatherby off 69 where he achieved a 72 speed rating.

Blue Yonder seems equally as effective on sand as on turf, and that’s in line with the observation that a mark of 67 is probably lenient as this point in time.

10pts win – Blue Yonder @ 15/2