Right now I’m once again in a most depressing phase of my betting journey. You know the feeling, when whatever you touch, it turns into a stinky brown turd? Yeah, that’s exactly it.
Backing Too Friendly at 14s, well supported before to off to start a 9/2 second favourite, just to bomb out. It must been weeks now that a selection was even within a shot for a place with three furlongs to go. Properly depressing.
…….
3.00 Lingfield: Listed Derby Trial, 1m 3.5f
This looks a wide open renewal that lacks a clear favourite and superstar…. at this stage, at least. Ballysax third Illinois heads the market, though hard to fancy him with a significant amount of confidence, judged on what he’s done so far.
On the other hand, he’ll likely enjoy the better ground, and the AOB yard seems to have kicked into gear this week, in no uncertain terms. Hence a fair default favourite, but nothing more than that.
Camelot son Defiance was a fast finishing second in the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom. That gives him an obvious chance to feature, if he can get off to a better start and doesn’t find himself too far back.
The pace should be decent, so that may play into his hands. But he’s a skinny enough price, and I probably would fancy Illinois in a match bet.
The Euphrates is another AOB trained colt. Really nicely bred, he should also enjoy the better ground and you’d expect him to improve significantly on the bare form he’s sown in three career runs to date.
Meydaan could be a lot better than he showed on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket where he dwelt and made life difficult for himself. He looked an exciting prospect on his sole juvenile run last year.
Arabic Legend has to improve, given his 1/4 record and having been keen enough over 10 furlongs at Epsom last month. Salamanca, a son of Sea The Stars, has a lot to find after two winless career runs, while Ambiente Friendly was well-beaten in his last two runs and doesn’t give the appearance of a Derby prospect.
No doubt, the one I must follow here is Imperial Sovereign. He was quite an eye catcher on his seasonal reappearance at Kempton in a hot Novice race. Only a head beaten behind a possibly seriously smart winner (British Camp one of my horses to follow this year).
That day Imperial Sovereign wasn’t smartly away from the gates, but soon recovered and tracked the pace. He then travelled much the best, on the bridle until 2f out, before being all out to the line to be beaten by a better horse on the day, as close as it was ultimately.
He showed a likeable attitude putting his head down and answering ever call, though. That was only his second career run and he won well on debut last autumn.
From a pedigree perspective the trip isn’t impossible, if not a given that he sees it out. Nonetheless, he’s bred to be classy, and everything he has shown so far points to the son of Frankel certainly having the ability to win at this level.
The dam did her best work with a bit of juice in the ground. Therefore the faster the going gets, the bigger the questions to answer on that front. However, it may help him to stay the trip a little bit better.
In any case, given the open nature of this contest, I feel looks certainly overpriced, given what he’s done so far, and the opposition he encountered (if I’m right that the Kempton race is a strong piece of form, indeed).
10pts win – Imperial Sovereign @ 15.5/1 SM
……
May add one or two additional selections on Saturday morning, depending on how markets develop.
The flat is back and quickly kicks into gear. As is customary tradition for this time of the year: here’s a selection of horses to follow throughout the 2024 flat season.
My main focus is once again on potential Group level performers – although some may turn out to develop (“only”?) into classy handicappers. In any case, I hope the following 10 horses do offer indeed significant upside based on what they have shown as juveniles.
In truth, hardly any of these are “dark horses”. I haven’t read any of the numerous “horses to follow” pieces yet, neither any of the more prominent stable tours, in order to avoid getting influenced; nonetheless, if you’re browsing Twitter you can’t escape that some names have been prominently mentioned.
Even though this list had been compiled weeks ago already, and only waited to be published with the start of the new flat season, I can hardly claim to have uncovered “original material”.
In any case, this is an exciting time of the year. All hopes still alive. That lends itself perfectly to take a cheeky look back, also.
HTF 2023 Review:
The 2023 edition did quite well in general. Not every horse turned out be a future star of our beloved sport. But some shot right to the top of the game, while others won decent enough races. If I only would have backed them all when it mattered most.
Nonetheless, the stars of the “class of 23” were clearly Continuous – an excellent winner of the St Leger, as well as Oaks heroine Soul Sister, who was also my biggest winner last year when she landed the Musidora where I backed her at 20s.
English and Irish Guineas placed Hi Royal, Coronation Stakes runner-up Remarquee and impressive Royal Ascot scorer Coppice were other notable horses achieving success in 2023.
………..
Anzac Day 3yo colt – Andrew Balding
Green on debut when he missed the kick and as a consequence was left with a mountain to climb in a race that favoured the front due to the pace..
Finished very strongly in the final furlong and hinted ability if he could learn and move up in trip, given his pedigree screams stamina.
He moved up an additional furlong ten days later at Newmarket. A fine start, he was soon toward the front of the pack and travelled really well. As he increased the tempo from over 3f out, he soon kicked clear and was not the be caught.
A superb run as he beat a good Godolphin horse in second. The speed rating of 89 confirmed the visual impression. He’ll improve as he moves up to 12 furlongs and could be a dark horse for the Derby.
Azada 3yo filly – Dermot Weld
Impressive finish on debut from the back of the field in horrible ground when she accelerated in superb style from 3f out to leave the rest of the field standing, all while overcoming early greenness.
Achieved an excellent 82 debut speed rating. Looks one with plenty of scope as a 3-year-old, though may need soft ground to be seen to best effect.
A step up to a mile will be no problem whatsoever. Beyond that remains to be seen. The Galileo mare produced a 10f Group 1 winner in Australia, though.
British Camp 3yo colt – Andrew Balding
British Camp was green on his debut. Missed the break and was early enough off the bridle entering the home straight.
Three light backhanders later and finished off nicely under alight enough ride in the closing stages to win it on the line, with seemingly much more left in the tank.
Ran five furlongs of the final mile the fastest sectionals, including the final two furlongs, dipping easily under 12s, in a pretty competitive race, beating some nice horses.
👏 Cracking finish!
British Camp (Lope De Vega) makes a winning debut for Andrew Balding & Kevin Stott with a game victory in the @UnibetRacing More Boosts in More Races Novice Stakes pic.twitter.com/IkHUrHbnoH
— Kempton Park Racecourse (@kemptonparkrace) March 13, 2024
He wasn’t expected on the day. The late May foal drifted out 18/1 before the off. He did plenty wrong, didn’t enjoy the best of trips, and still won also achieving a superb debut speed rating of 84.
Trained by Andrew Balding, British Camp is very well bred and related to smart individuals in his family. He should be capable of getting 1m 4f, but a fast 10 furlongs may be ideal at this stage of his career.
Galen 3yo colt – Joseph O’Brien
Very impressive debut in a maiden where he finished only second behind City Of Try. Missed break, possibly by design, then travelled well against the inside off the pace. Nice progress but in a pocked and had to switch before he ran home strongly, chasing COT.
Wasn’t seen since July. That’s a big question mark. Things must have gone wrong. But he has a Guineas and Derby entry and looks potentially a seriously exciting prospect over 7f to a mile, if there are no further issues.
God’s Window 3yo colt – John Gosden
Showed a likable turn of foot on debut at Doncaster in soft ground despite not being advantaged by how the race developed early on, travelling without cover the first 1.5 furlongs, and coming from off the pace in a slowly run race.
Good 77 debut speed rating. Deemed good enough to contest a deep Futurity Stakes. Missed the break and was quite keen in the early part of the race. Badly positioned but impressive finish for third.
Can only improve as he moves up in trip. Out of an Oaks Trial winner, by Dubawi, he looks an intriguing Derby prospect.
Grosvenor Square 3yo colt – Aiden O’Brien
Gutsy Galway winner on debut. Looked green and clueless enough, especially around the sharp bends. Connections have introduced smart horses in this particular race in the past.
The son of Galileo doesn’t look flashy and doesn’t seem to do anything in a hurry either. He ran well for third travelling quite wide, although he also appeared one paced in the Beresford.
He was seen to much better effect on his final run last year, moving up to 9 furlongs in the Eyrefield Stakes at Leopardstown where he kicked nicely from the front to win with ease.
He’s certainly going to be better the further he goes, as his pedigree suggests, as a son of Galileo and a half-brother to Santiago. Not the classiest in the stable for now, but solid speed ratings over sharp enough trips for this colt as a juvenile, that suggests there is plenty of upside.
Henry Longfellow 3yo colt – Aiden O’Brien
This son of Dubawi and Minding looks the real deal. Visually and on the clock he’s been nothing short of impressive in his three career runs as a juvenile.
The way he quickened on debut and next time in the Futurity Stakes from the front on both occasions was highly promising. He subsequently made top-class 2-year-old Bucanero Fuerte look like a lowly rated claimer in the National Stakes.
Most likely some of that had to do with the fact BF didn’t quite get home over the trip in a fast race. Nonetheless, Henry Longfellow, once again confirmed the impressions from his first two runs.
A seemingly uncomplicated individual, he was able to quicken from the front as well as chase a pace and pass rivals. He looks to possess plenty of scope as well.
The visual impressions are backed up by speed ratings. 85 on debut – that’s often the sign of a potentially classy individual. 101 in the Futurity. Confirmed by a 100 speed rating in the National Stakes.
He has the 2000 Guineas written all over his profile. I’m not an ante-post backer but would be seriously temped by the 6-7/1 available right now. Not totally impossible that he can stretch out to the Derby trip, either, although 10 furlongs may be the limit.
Inisherin 3yo colt – Kevin Ryan
Only half a lengths beaten on debut when market expected nothing (50/1). Travelled the best to 2f out and only beaten by a vastly more experienced horse. Fine 76 speed rating for a debut.
Impressive victory on seasonal return at Newcastle. Benefited from prime position in a really slowly run race but was impressive the way he finished easily sprinting clear under hands and heels with two subsequent sub-11s furlongs.
Looks sure to improve for experience and a step up in trip looks ideal on pedigree. Out of smart Ajman Princess who was Lanshire Oaks 3rd and winner of the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet.
A stiff mile and a strong pace could also work, especially in the early part of the season, possibly. Maybe not a prime contender for a 2000 Guineas, but could have an outside chance.
One Look 3yo filly – Paul Twomey
Overcame a stiff task on debut to take on vastly more experienced rivals in the highly competitive Goffs Million at the Curragh. She obliterated her rivals thanks to superb acceleration from 3f out.
She benefitted from a solid pace and got the gaps when needed that day but the way she put the race to bed was nothing short of astonishing. That’s backed by a sensational 92 debut speed rating.
Not sure she’ll get much further than a mile given the speed she showed and the dam doing her best work over a mile, too. She may need soft ground as well, as it appears she hits the ground quite hard.
Uluru 3yo filly – Joseph O’Brien
Impressive debut at Gowran Park from a wide draw where she didn’t get too well away at the start. Nonetheless, she ran away with it in the end and clocked an excellent 81 speed rating.
Changed hands afterwards and was desperately unlucky for new owners Team Valor in her final start last season. It wasn’t a good pace, she was stuck in the pack and just couldn’t get out. Did well to finish 4th.
She looks capable of improving into a stakes filly. The dam won over 12 furlongs, so a step up in trip will surely help her to improve. She also has an early season entry at Naas in March.
First winner in roughly two months yesterday (with seven weeks break in between, though). And it couldn’t have been a better one. Big Rock demolished the field in the QEII.
I couldn’t quite believe the performance. As he established an eight lengths lead….. he didn’t tire and romped home in spectacular fashion.
The other jockeys seemed asleep on the wheel, on the other hand. How could they all gift this highly talented colt such a huge, uncontested lead?
It was a superb run by Swingalong in the Champions Sprint. She finished a gallant 4th, outran her odds and briefly looked like she may even win. Cant complain.
…….
3.20 Leopardstown: Listed Trigo Stakes, 10f
The two top-rated horses Lafayette and Sprewell are clearly the horses who should fight this out. They stand out in terms of their achievements this year.
Lafayette has been consistent for the most part this year, enjoys soft ground, stays the trip and will find this opposition a bit easier. Nonetheless, there’s an argument to be made that he’s been seen to best effect away from Leopardstown.
The opposite is true for Sprewell. He showed a lot of promise early in the season when he improved from a winning reappearance at Naas to land the Derby Trial here at Leopardstown in fine style as he denied solid yardstick Up And Under.
I wrote before how much I loved his Epsom Derby run, even though it’s probably fair to say Sprewell didn’t put his talent to best effect in two subsequent races.
In saying that, there’re solid reasons for that. For one, he raced against hot opposition in the Irish Derby and then in the Irish Champion Stakes. He also, it seems pretty clear now, prefers a softer going.
Leopardstown, 10 furlongs and plenty of give in the ground will suit today. Sprewell should enjoy this significant drop in class as well. He deserves his chance today heading the field as the favourite in my mind.
I’m happy I got my full stake matched over night at a touch over 5/2 on various exchanges, though that is rapidly disappearing and I probably would find anything below 2/1 too short for me personally, just as a side note.
A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous eyecatchers here.
Lil Guff 22/05/23 – 5.00 Windsor:
Settled in rear against the inside rail, before gradually moving over to the other side, travelling well, but not getting a run through over one furlong out, when she tried to progress on the widest outside, with a shifting rival not helping to get clear passage there either.
Finished a fine 3rd. Fast ground, minimum trip not ideal. All best career performances over 6 furlongs, and enjoys less lively ground too. Down to a good mark, won off 76 and 82 last summer.
A 76 speed rating here and 79 speed rating in April suggest she’s in the same form now. Ideally want to see her up in trip, though.
Travelled really well in his group. Fine progress from halfway through and won his group comfortably. Couldn’t catch the winner who travelled alone on the far side.
Ran the best finishing speed. Clearly in good form and on solid mark off 80 having ran to 80 and 83 speed rating last year. Better over 6f on fast ground. Didn’t have that yet this year.
Set hot pace from the front and travelled strongly until getting quite tired from over 1f out to finish 4th eventually as he’s getting swamped late. Should be good form.
Down to fine mark. In good form. Best with ease in the ground, hence this run warrants an upgrade, but is competitive on fast too, and continues to drop a seriously intriguing mark in any case.
Sluggish start, recovered and went forward to lead at a red hot pace. Found plenty under pressure and only late beaten by two from off the pace.
Good speed rating, which is believable. Ran to near similar speed rating a month earlier on the All-Weather. Definitely in good form but has issues and the hood didn’t seem to help. Would stay a mile if he could settle.
Jury is out how much he’s got in hand these days, but worth another try over 7 furlongs as he has been dropped 2lb by the handicapper for this fine effort.
Pushed a hot pace from the front as part of a duo. Kept fighting well to the line under pressure and nearly held on fending off all challengers bar the winner who came from off the pace.
Huge run. 1st tongue tie, responded well here as well for the decent ground. Deserves a chance in these circumstances again. Won off 73 last autumn in fine style and achieved 77 speed rating.
Was disappointing next time. However was a drifter on the day in the betting, never seemed to travel too well and maybe just doesn’t like ground that fast.
Caught seriously wide from #14 draw. Did a lot to cross over and get into a position where she tracked the hot pace. Some progress in the home straight before getting tired and also hampered 1f out.
Ran better than bare form lto on Handicap debut as well. Not ridden with intend to obtain best result last two times. The game is in the name…. down to 50 now interesting, if handbrake is off, especially with any support in the betting.
Travelled like a dream in midfield, well covered. Came through strongly, hard on the bridle, going through a gap over 2 furlongs out. Was eventually outkicked and not had the speed to go with the winner but ran on well.
Has the pedigree to improve beyond six furlongs. Will be of serious interest up in trip if she can settle. Has won and ran well over sprint trips already. The way she travelles suggests there’s talent better than a 78 OR.
Forced to settle off the pace the way the race developed. Was going well but had to wait for room as no gap opened late. Finished best in the final furlong.
Clear return to form after some lesser efforts on the All-Weather. Did well on the sand during winter, though. Down to sexy mark and not out of it on turf either, despite 0/5 record. Never expected in those runs but clearly handles fast ground.
Quickly restraint in rear of the field against the inside rail. Was going pretty well but progress stopped as he was stuck behind a wall of horses, short of room and hampered from two furlongs until late before in the clear inside the final furlong and finished nicely.
Only slowly drops in the mark. Effective over a variety of sprint trips and acts on nearly all ground. Not tremendously well-handicapped but placed off higher and may not be far off a big run if allowed to run on merit.
Swerved to his left out of the gate then settled in midfield. Travelled strongly on the bridle over 2f out behind horses but had to wait for room and switch to the inside for a run. Finished best.
Started the first two furlongs & finished the final furlong faster than the the first two home (fastest final furlong). May not truly stay 1m and would ideally drop to 7f. Lightly raced, good speed rating here as well.
Tracked the pace against the inside rail for most of the race until the two groups merged. He found himself shot of room multiple times and only late was able to get properly into the clear to finish strongly.
Strong form. Ran to 80 speed rating. Seemed to enjoy the decent ground and has responded for blinkers the last two. Showed promise as a juvenile. Clearly better than what he has shown up to now.
If he’s kept in handicap company he’ll be well-handicapped. Move up in trip is certainly preferable.
Travelled in midfield, not going smoothly, niggled along, possibly found the pace over 7f on fastish ground too hot. Kept going well, though. Not clear run over 2f out and slightly hampered over 1f out.
Handicap debut and should be better than this. Decent speed rating. Should move up in trip again and dangerous off 87 on decent ground.
His chances were compromised from the wide draw. He didn’t get in to find cover and as a consequence always travelled three wide, mostly without cover, off the pace. Travelled well and made good progress from over 3f out before getting tired in the final furlong.
May not quite stay a mile. 7f most likely ideal. Impressive win as a juvenile. High enough mark but deserves chance over 7f. He usually can go forward. Deserves chance in easier race.
Huge disadvantage the low draw that day. In rear early on, before excellent progress from three furlong out on the far side. Did well to run so well for so long.
Better over 6f, ideally with decent to fast ground. One who needs things to fall right but ran solid last season still and could be underestimated in the right race.
Widest draw away from the inside rail huge disadvantage. Bumped after the start. Was going okay but short of room over 2f out. Disaster run. Ran on well prior on his handicap debut as well.
Could be better than this. May prefer ease in the ground and/or could enjoy an additional furlong as he doesn’t seem to have the speed for fast 6f. Down to 72 intriguing.
Off to a good start, tracked pace keenly early on. Travelled well enough before he became a bit flat footed over 2 furlongs out as the sedate pace increased. Lost ground but stamina kicked in and he flew home the final furlong.
Could enjoy moving up in trip if the pace is solid. Smart prospect and may be underestimated because his profile isn’t that sexy, especially after his Dubai flop.
Flew down the first half of the race, was over a full second faster to the 3f marker than the eventual winner. Gradually tired but was game to the line.
Bumped into a well-handicapped one on seasonal reappearance lto. Can get home but more often than not 7f is a stretch, probably best over 6f. down to solid mark and clearly in form a pound below his last winning mark.
Moved quickly forward from wider than ideal draw and travelled very wide before moving across to lead. Was going well for long and showed good attitude late as well.
Best over 5f. Down to intriguing mark. Ran well over minimum trip on fast ground last year. Didn’t get the best of luck on the AW lately but finished well, especially last time at Southwell.
Quick start, led from the front as part of duo. Travelled strongly approaching 2f out before he came under severe pressure. beaten by winner from off the pace.
Still a maiden but ran twice 62+ speed ratings. may not stay 7f unless gifted a soft lead. drop to 6f really interesting off career-lowest mark.
Set off very fast, going sprinter pace the first few furlongs, as part of a duo. Kept going well, still ahead 1f out, swamped late. huge run and return to form. down to sexy mark, judged on last season.
Should be strong form. Winner was well-handicapped. Would be most interesting for drop to 7f, even though he stays further, a mile with little pace competition could also be interesting.
Right up with the pace, lead early then chased it. Seemingly going backwards from 2f out but kept on well. Bumped slightly over 1f out and squeezed. Hot race and strong form most likely.
Should find an easier one and can win and may improve with experience still. May also be able to drop to 6f.
Set strong pace from the front. Had the field on the stretch halfway out. Kicked clear and only late beaten by very well-handicapped horse.
May go up a couple of pounds but ran 66 speed rating here and 67 in the past. Clearly best on decent ground, and could go well in the right race of revised mark still in right conditions.
Bumped at the start, settled in rear, made some good progress travelling well from over 3f out on the outside of the field. Impeded 2f out, ran home solid enough.
Looks a big horse. May needed the run still. Still lightly raced, handicap debut and worth to watch out for over 7f-1m on decent ground. Full-sister achieved nothing, so not too many chances given.
Dwelt, keen in rear, seemed difficult to steer and went very wide. great progress and finished second on the line despite jockey tried to pull up early.
Dropped another couple of pounds in the meantime. Run better last few runs than bare form. Still a maiden but could cherry ripe potentially. Entry next week at Haydock intriguing.
Dwelt from wide draw, rushed forward on outside before crossing over to lead the field. Was going well and seriously gutsy to stay in front for as long as he did.
Career best speed rating. clearly back in form. Not on to trust to follow-up, but worth to check if he drops to 7f again as the additional half furlong may have been a bit too far here.
Tracked the pace on far side, quite prominently ridden. Travelled well to 2f out but couldn’t quite keep up the effort in the closing stages. Did best of those low drawn, which is often a disadvantage over this CD.
Career-best on speed ratings, as low as that is. 7f on fast ground ideal and interesting in a similarly poor race when she has a good draw.
Dwelt and awkward out of the gate. Settled in midfield, bumped into rival before the first turn. Made progress and found a route through to challenge, though the winner was long gone. Ran on well.
Confirmed lto promise. Down to fine mark. Best on decent ground (ideally no worse than yielding), so could be intriguing on a more conventional track if the dry spell continues. However, can have issues at the gate.
Travelled seriously well on the far side, covered up behind the pace. Pulled out over 2f out and kicked on well to lead, before late beaten by horse on the stands’ side.
Well handicapped on last-years form. Clearly back in form as he showed some promise at Catterick prior too.
He enjoys decent ground and should remain dangerous even with a small hike in the ratings.
A finish dominated by those ridden with restraint. Which was somewhat surprising, because they didn’t go too hard in the first half of the race, with a finishing speed of 116% for the winner, Auguste Rodin (the par for the Derby distance at Epsom is around 111%) not quite telling the tale, perhaps.
King Of Steel raced the closest to the pace from those who made any impact in the closing stages. He travelled pretty well in midfield and kicked on strongly from over 3f out, before being outstayed in the final furlong by the Aiden O’Brien trained colt.
White Birch came from very far back and made great progress on the outside in the home straight. He’s an obvious eyecatcher in that sense. However, there a couple of others who interest me more for the future.
Sprewell is probably the one who left the biggest impression on me. I was certainly not overly keen on him beforehand, but he certainly confirmed his huge talent in the Derby.
It was his fifth career start, but the first time going over the Derby trip. He looked still a bit keen and perhaps green at various stages of the race, hence the fact he finished so well in 4th, without ever appearing with a shot of winning, truth told, is noteworthy.
He found himself short of room at a crucial stage of the race over 2.5f out, though. Subsequently he got badly unbalanced, yet found his momentum quickly again and ran on before his stamina ran out in the final furlong.
Fast ground clearly wasn’t an issue. But the Derby trip may stretch his stamina, especially in a properly run race. However, he has shown his class over 10 furlongs already. That looks his trip. He’s one I’ll track.
Waipiro endured a disaster run. he dwelt, was then caught behind a wall of horses, trailed the field and had to come around wide for a run.
He made excellent progress from 4f out around Tattenham Corner, before his effort fizzled out from 2f out. He probably didn’t get the trip. Though, I thought the confirmed the promise he showed at Newmarket and at Lingfield.
Whether he’s a genuine Group 1 horse remains to be seen. He could be underestimated if he drops down to 10 furlongs, though.
Artistic Star ran a race of two halves, so to speak. Initially I was disappointed with his run. I backed him, and thought he would do much better than a 11 lengths beaten 7th place.
However, he ran a race full of promise. After a solid start he didn’t travel well, niggled at various stages. Perhaps inexperience in such a big, tight field was to blame.
Three furlongs from home he was relegated to last even, before the penny seemed to drop and he motored home in the 4rd fastest final 3f split to pass many tired horses.
He’ll have learned plenty and remains at this stage an exciting prospect after two excellent career performances prior where he ran strong speed ratings for an inexperienced horse.
Whether he’s Group 1 class remains to be seen. His siblings were smart horses but not quite top-notchers. He looks to stay the Derby distance, much like they did, though.
Age Of Sail was a very easy winner on Friday. He always did enough in front, or perhaps only as much as needed, because the rest of the field was kept napping in behind, allowing him an easy lead.
The other two selections from Friday provided a set of mixed emotions: Azaim ran a huge race for 3rd place despite a drift to 28/1 SP. He ran well to the line, and I can take some joy from seeing him outrunning his price. In truth: he was not good enough to win, though.
Capofan was the disappointment of the day. I’d fancy him to go seriously close, despite double-figure odds. But he wasn’t the sharpest away from the gate was beaten at the halfway stage.
All in all, another green day regardless how small the profit. Two days, two winners for June. No complaints.
…….
1.30 Epsom: Group 1 Derby, 1m 4f
A wide open Derby. A puzzle to solve without a “good thing” to back. The Derby this year lends itself for a big price to cause an upset, I feel.
It’s hard to have confidence in the long-time ante-post favourite Auguste Rodin. A classy juvenile, but his poor Guineas performance raises plenty of questions. Sure, he had some excuses that day. Valid ones. But it’s far from an ideal prep.
Military Order is a stronger choice, in my view. He’s got the credentials as a brother of Adayar and he was impressive when he kicked clear in the Derby Trial at Lingfield, albeit on the All-Weather.
But like many in this field today, lingering doubts hang over his suitability for fast ground. The same could be said about Arrest or Sprewell, two who I would find of great interest with any ease in the ground.
White Birch is one who has shown to handle fast ground at York. That forms ties in with The Foxes, the winner of the Dante. Both ran good speed ratings and are prime contenders, if they handle Epsom and the new trip.
The two I feel are severely overpriced in this wide open Derby have their own questions to answer: Waipiro for one – runner-up behind Military Order in the Derby Trial.
He fell away in the final half furlong, but I feel the fact he raced closer to the pace and did more in the fast half of the race could be a fair reason for that. He still ran a superb race.
That performance confirmed his strong Newmarket victory on his seasonal reappearance. He wasn’t expected that day and may have surprised connections, but travelled and kicked on like a colt of significant talent.
He ran to a 97 speed rating at Lingfield, which gives him a fair shot to run well in a Derby. obviously more is needed, and he seems to hit the ground hard as well, so I have questions over his suitability for fast ground.
Whether he stays the trip is another question. He’s a half-brother to one who finished 3rd in a Chester Plate over extended 2 miles. So there’s well grounded hope. In any case, he has talent and his form is good enough to give him a shot at outrunning his odds today.
The other one I’m intrigued about is Artistic Star. He won quite well on his racecourse debut last October. The attitude he showed to keep going all the way to the line was impressive. So was his debut speed rating of 87. Sings of a potentially smart colt.
The notion that is his a smart colt indeed received another boost when he returned at Sandown last month and won going away in the closing stages, answering every call and responding well to pressure. He improved on his debut speed rating also.
He looks like he would definitely enjoy the Derby trip and as a full-brother to two smart ones (both won Group 3) that won over the distance, he shouldn’ have a problem at all.
He’s another one who has doubts over his suitability for fast ground, though. His two career runs came on softish ground. Though, full-sister Forbearance won the Group 3 Royal Staked over 12f on fast ground. His action seems fluid and the knee action isn’t too pronounced.
Clearly he’s been incredibly progressive in his two career runs and deserves a chance to run in a Derby. He can progress again, and if he does act on the ground and track he should be a huge runer.
Gioia Cieca had a troubled run last time at York in a seriously hot Handicap. He didn’t seem to travel overly well and lost ground, before getting stuck behind horses in the home straight and impeded. He fell away rapidly in the last two furlongs.
There’s a danger that he hasn’t recovered from two big efforts in April as it looked like he found form again after a break, where he was gelded and underwent a wind operation.
I’m prepared to ignore the last effort as it simply didn’t seem to be his day at York. However, judged on the first two efforts this season, over this course and distance at Musselburgh, he should be seriously competitive off a lowered mark.
Back off his break in April Musselburgh, off for 235 days, he caught the eye for the way he finished after a less than ideal way the race developed for him from the start.
He was desperately unlucky next time over the same course and distance and that performances warranted an upgrade as the one before, especially as both runs came on softish ground.
No doubt Gioia Cieca is a better horse on decent ground. His two best career performances can on fast ground over 7 furlongs. Therefore the ground should be ideal here today, in what is a wide open contest
10pts win – Gioia Cieca @ 9/1
…………
4.50 Musselburgh: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
Stay Smart could be quite well handicapped today in conditions to suit and a race that looks quite winnable.
He showed a clear return to form last time out at Ayr when he raced from the front and also achieved a good speed rating, the best in over 1.5 years.
That day he moved quickly forward and led the field at a good pace. He travelled well and found plenty for pressure from 2f out. Ultimately he was only beaten inside the final furlong by two ridden with more restraint.
Stay Smart had a tough time since losing his form in early 2022. He changed yards, tumbled down the weights and has been gelded and had a wind operation. He appears to be in good shape now, though, and is dangerous off his current rating.
His best performances on speed ratings are mainly over 6 furlongs, but he won over the minimum trip as well, ideally on fast ground and a fast pace to chase over 5f. That should be the case here. The 3lb of Mark Winn are the cherry on the cake.
10pts win – Stay Smart @ 9/2
……
5.40 Doncaster: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Madame Fenella is a filly in serious form. Her last three runs were strong and the way she finished indicated her day to shine is near.
She caught the eye at Bath on her seasonal debut when she finished best from the back of the field and wide draw. It was awkward start for her, as can be often the case, she also wore a hood to post; she’s tricky as the past tells.
Nonetheless, she travelled well and did seriously well to finish as close as she did from her wide draw. She didn’t have the speed over 5f at Wolverhampton the next time, though it was a fine performance, which she confirmed once more with an eyecatching run at Haydock the last time.
That run is the strongest indication for her wellbeing. It was a deep race, the winner well handicapped, and se didn’t get the clearest of runs, but she finished once again with zest.
The filly had limited opportunities on turf in handicap company. Her Ascot run from last September noteworthy. She’s intriguing as she drops down to class 6 on turf, especially on fast ground over 6 furlongs.
A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous lists here.
Serious Look 25/04/23 – 4.45 Epsom:
Moved forward quickly to lead travelling wide. Was going strongly approaching the home straight, though gradually tired and fell away in the last two furlongs.
Paid for early exertions, doing too much in deep ground, as those ahead of him in the end were ridden with more restraint.
Travelles well. May found 9f in heavy ground beyond his stamina. A mile in soft ground should be fine, though, so is 7f with plenty of cut in the ground. He seems to hit the ground quite hard.
Settled in rear of the field. Travelled strongly, on the bridle as he approached the home straight but went widest and lost ground. Really strong finish. Good form.
Unlucky lto when also a strong run, confirmed here that he’s absolutely ready to strike. Can make a mess at the gate, though.
Would be most intrigued over 5f on turf again. Ran good speed ratings last season, and another 2lb down now, most likely seriously well-handicapped.
Widest draw was probably a disadvantage as was travelling on the stands’ side. Made strong progress from 3f out against stands’ rail and finished best of that group.
Huge run in circumstances, confirmed strong AW form, also was a bit unlucky lto. Looks on a possibly lenient turf mark in the right conditions, compared to AW as he’s not 10lb worse judged on speed ratings.
He prefers better ground to be seen to best effect. Didn’t enjoyed these conditions this season yet. Does stay 6f but probably best over shorter.
Moved quickly forward and crossed over the the far rail. Led the field, but pressured all the way. battled solidly before fading badly in the final furlong.
Softish ground far from ideal. He’s a different horse on better ground, ideally fast. Ran twice to 78 speed rating off a 77 mark last summer.
Down to a super mark now and after two solid runs under his belt this year, should be a big runner in the right conditions soon.
Grabbed the lead, largely uncontested, was going well entering the home straight. Eventually beaten by those from off the pace. Decent run.
Can ignore next time in class 2. Tricky sort but clearly still with an appetite for the game. Slowly drops to fair mark again. Won off 80 back in December.
Ran twice to speed rating 84+ last year on turf over 7 furlongs. With decent ground should be interesting, especially if he could dominate.
Travelled supremely well from the front and had entire field well on the stretch from 3f out. Tired badly in the final furlong and eventually reeled in by two from off the pace.
Huge seasonal reappearance. Was placed off similar mark last year. Quite experienced and unlikely to have much scope. May find it tough to back up this effort if turned out quickly.
Superb front-running effort. Kicked on from over 2f out and looked the winner until swamped late in the day. Ran to 69 speed rating here, strong form.
Ran multiple times to mid-60 speed ratings and higher. Improved nicely from seasonal debut. Probably best over minimum trip with cut in the ground but 6f on better ground no issue either. Versatile.
Badly bumped and squeezed out of the gate by two rivals, trailed as a consequence. Wall of horses in front and had to switch wide to the far side, giving ground and momentum away. Came through well from over 1f out.
Strong run in circumstances. Ran with credit on the All-Weather this year before. Comes down to solid mark. Not tons in hand but ran to 68, 69 and 71 speed ratings since August last year.
Any additional help from the handicapper will bue valuable. He’s better over the minimum trip, and prefers decent ground. Not disgraced at Newcastle on Tuesday off 69.
Travelled quite well on stands’ side, which was potentially not ideal being high drawn in this race, as was away from where the pace developed. Travelled strongly to 2f out before effort petered out.
Reportedly made a respiratory noise afterwards, that may explain the tame finish, although he wasn’t advantaged by the way the race developed in any way.
Small risk whether all is fine with him, but in any case another 2lb down and well-handicapped now. Ran solid on the All-Weather before, somewhat unfortunate. Achieved speed ratings last season that will give him a huge chance wherever he goes, if healthy.
Moved forward from #9 draw to closely follow the pace. Pressed the leader from 3f out and couple of lengths ahead before swamped. Accepted challenge and stuck strongly to the task to hold on for 2nd place.
Strong run and speed rating only 2lb shy of current mark, which was left untouched. Given great opportunity if he can find a handicap over a mile in proper soft ground as still somewhat unexposed in these conditions which seemingly bring out the best in him.
Can ignore hurdle and All-Weather form; he looks potentially well-handicapped off 70 in the right conditions.
Fell out of the gate. Overcame his highly awkward start quickly, as moved forward rapidly to lead after the first furlong even. Did way too much to get there but only fell away from from over a furlong out.
Strong run in circumstances and clearly better than result. Won when last seen in 2022. Full-brother to Group 3 winning miler. Should have no issues going up in trip.
Opening mark no giveaway, but could have a couple of pounds ahead if he moves up to 6 furlongs.
Grabbed the lead, although closely followed all the time. Keen in the first half of the race. Under severe pressure entering the home straight. Gutsy, still fought back when beaten over 1f out.
Clearly in good form. Ran well last two times as well. If ground stays soft drop to 7f possibly ideal. Chester entry on Wednesday interesting.
Closely enough rated to more recent best speed ratings, but any help from handicapper will see her having something in hand in the right race.
First bumped, then squeezed out soon after the start. Stumbled after the first furlong. Got going again but ultimately never stood a chance. Better than this as he caught the eye at Lingfield before as well when turning very wide but finished well enough.
Not much scope but chance off 47, especially on turf, 5f on decent ground. Some strong performances last year, especially when out of the handicap off 51 at Ffos Las.
Ran twice to 48 speed rating, latest in January. Looks like he’s in the same sort of form as his best from 2022, hence should have a few pounds ahead now.
Bounced out of the gate from wide draw to grab the lead and set strong gallop. Started to tire from 3 furlongs out, though ran solid to the line.
Not disgraced the last two. Veteran who still enjoys the game. Simply not the old force any more and will benefit from further drop in the ratings and down into class 6.
Led, although closely tracked. Still ahead at the final furlong marker, but heavily under pressure. Only faded from half a furlong out. Probably solid form, winner possibly still ahead of his mark.
Comes down to good mark. Ran well on the All-Weather (unlucky 03/03) against good opposition. Will benefit from drop to class 6 again and could be dangerous now, over 6-7f.
Possibly a bit better on the sand, but intriguing on turf off 63 if the ground decent, especially over 6 furlongs.
Overcame widest draw quickly to dispute lead all the way while travelling wide, giving ground away. Hit the front just about with 1.5f to go before getting swallowed for good by two ridden with more restraint. Saddle slipped late, too.
Lightly raced. May enjoy better ground. Good run and interesting off current mark over 6f on decent ground, probably does also enjoy galloping track more than tight ones.
Seriously keen throughout the race, but strongly travelling into the home straight. Tremendous visual impression when let go as he moved forward stylishly from 2.5f out to hit the front in an instant. Markedly tired from over 1f out and caught late.
Often keen over 6f. Ran well number of times before. Achieved 62 speed rating here, hence likely to be ahead of mark, and should be if not too harshly treated by the handicapper after this. Has 5f entries next week. Intriguing over the minimum trip.
Awkward start. In rear, going okay until outpaced from 2f out. Kept going strongly to the line and finished best of all. Ran to strong 61 speed rating, 3lb below current mark.
Fast conditions over the minimum trip not ideal. Notably how well he ran. Clearly ready in right conditions. Prefers cut in the ground and stays 6f.
Ran to 68 speed rating at Dundalk in January. Changed yards. Tricky customer. Worth to wait for the right conditions. Perhaps ran too good to be dropped another pound our two here, though.
Led his group on the far side. Good pace. Ran strongly to the line but beaten by one from off the pace. Strong form through winner and 2nd.
Better over 6f and pretty ground independent, though may not want the extreme end of either side of the going stick. Ran good speed ratings within last twelve month and this a clear return to form.
At disadvantage from the #8 gate. Caught wide and without cover early on, before settling at the back of the field. Good progress on outside from halfway stage. Nearly upside leaders over 1f out, before getting tired.
Comeback run and handicap debut. Huge performance against pace and track bias. Showed good early speed last year. May stay 7f on pedigree but 6f possibly ideal.
Was a cheap yearling but looks clearly better than opening 70 mark.
Had the widest draw to overcome. Huge disadvantage. Raced widest without cover. Good progress from over 2f out, just tired late.
Strong run on seasonal reappearance. Ran to 66 speed rating. Clearly as good as ever. Won off 70 multiple times in the past. Ran to 70 speed rating twice last year.
Loves it at Salisbury. Interesting next time out but in an ideal world he finds a way to drop a couple of pounds to become seriously well-handicapped.
Awkward start, travelled strongly against the inside rail at the end of the field. Good progress but full effort delayed until he got out late to finish strongly.
Ran 70 speed rating equal to current mark. Caught the eye on the All-Weather before. Seems to be still improving and capable of winning, especially if not harshly assessed for this run by the handicapper.
Most likely prefers a bit of give in the ground, certainly no fast ground. Can be a bit tricky out of the gate but usually a strong traveller.
Raced about 5 lengths off the pace, quite keen, took a grip. Overraced especially around the home bend and huge move from 4f out to go upside with leaders. Fell away in the closing stages.
Still a maiden and not one to trust too much, didn’t run a good speed rating yet. However this is probably solid form and a drop to 6f will be interesting off revised career-lowest mark.
Travelled off the pace, outpaced halfway through, before good progress. held up behind leaders from 2f out, looked bit awkward, possibly hung. Ran on strongly.
Caught the eye lto over the minimum trip at Newcastle as well. Clearly in strong form but a difficult sort. A step up to 1m interesting. Maybe one tough to catch given it’s Goldie.
Made the most of the standing start. Led, set strong pace, had the field on the stretch from 3 furlongs out and ran home better than most, bar a strong winner. Strong 92 speed rating.
Clearly up to win and confirmed level of form shown last year. If untouched by the handicapper interesting in similar race, especially in a smaller field.
Tracked an honest pace, always going well. Not a clear run from 3f out when horses led across him and hindered him to move out for his effort. Accelerated well once in the clear, especially after he was close to the pace all the time, before getting tired and not given a hard time in the final furlong.
Won well lto. Looks progressive and could still be handicapped to win off 77, after running to 73 speed rating here in not ideal circumstances.
Tracked the pace early on, pretty keen through the race. Not a clear run in the home straight and had to delay full effort multiple times, also hung. Finished nicely under and easy ride in the final furlong.
Comeback run and gelded during his break. First try over a mile. Should get the trip easily if he can settle better. A drop to 7f shouldn’t be an issue, either. Should be competitive off a revised mark.
Right up with the pace, never far off, always racing in prominent position. Was going notably well 2f out, found plenty for pressure and only went down behind two well handicapped horses.
Strong form. Clearly in good nick. Ran career best speed rating on All-Weather earlier this year, although much better on turf.
Ran 74+ speed ratings twice, including a career-best 79 last summer. Handicapped to win off 72 as left untouched by handicapper.
Prominent on the far side, travelled strongly, possibly going best. Got up late for 2nd place on his side, but no chance with winner on stands’ side, who was probably advantaged by racing on that side.
Up 2lb, more than fair. Ran to 70 speed rating here and 81 on AW last year. This form should be strong, every chance can progress and win next time. If not for racing from a wide draw lto at Dundalk her record could read even better.
At the start of 2022 flat season I followed the trend of many racing fans and compiled a personal list of Five to Follow for the new season ahead.
It’s December, and the 2022 flat season belongs to the history books – a good time a look back and check how the five horses have fared this year.
Aldous Huxley
Despite the great name and a highly promising debut on the Kempton polytrack that landed him a spot in my list, Aldous Huxley has not quite fulfilled the early promise.
A fine runner-up behind fellow Godolphin colt New London (more on him later) in a Novice event at Newmarket, followed a neck beaten 2nd place finish in the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood.
Despite enjoying the run of the race, Aldous Huxley wasn’t good enough to win at that level. No surprise, because he never bettered the strong speed rating achieved on debut (90) either, suggesting he wasn’t really an improving sort.
He hasn’t been seen since this run in May and was gelded in the meantime.
It remains to be seen whether he can find improvement as a gelding next year. I would certainly hope so. He was a May foal, and his dam was a late bloomer as well.
Final Official Rating: 101
Best Speed Rating: 90
Cash
The David Simmcock trained colt seriously caught the eye when he blasted home in a Newmarket maiden at the backend of the 2021 season.
Unfortunately, he was only seen twice this year. That was at Sandown in the Group 3 Classic Trial. He was a desperately unlucky runner-up behind a certain Westover.
The French Derby and later QEII were targets subsequently, but neither materialised due to injuries. A real shame as he was so impressive on his debut and clearly trained on.
He made a belated comeback on the Kempton polytrack in November where he was a disappointing third of four starters. He travelled sweetly but hang in the closing stages.
I believe he stays in training. At least that’s what the owners mentioned a few months ago. One would hope so. This talented grey deserves a chance to show his very best. And I’d be more than hopeful he’s better than this last run.
Final Official Rating: 108
Best Speed Rating: 78
Claymore
He made seasonal reappearance at the place that saw him earn a spot in my 5TF list: Newmarket. A good 2nd place behind 2000 Guineas ante-post favourite Native Trail promised something for the season ahead.
The colt, trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam, subsequently finished last in the French Derby, but that was largely down to being drawn in the car park.
However, he then delivered on the big stage, when next seen, as he went wire to wire to win the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot.
This remained the highlight of his season as he was soundly beaten in the Group 2 York Stakes the next- and the last time we’ve seen him this year.
Final Official Rating: 111
Best Speed Rating: 89
New London
Without a shadow of a doubt the horse that turned out the best from my 5FT list. It didn’t look like it, initially. Even though, he won at Newmarket on his season debut, a subsequent rather lackluster run in the Chester Vase saw his Derby credentials evaporate.
He dropped into Handicap company the next time, obliged duly, proving to be a pattern horse running in a Handicap. He then went on to land the Group 3 Gordon Stakes at Goodwood as he stepped up in trip.
He was subsequently installed as the new favourite for the final Classic of the season: the St. Leger at Doncaster.
Going into the Leger as the 11/8 favourite, it was clearly an anti-climax when New London only managed to finish third. He had every chance in the home straight, but wasn’t quite good enough on the day. Perhaps the softish ground wasn’t quite ideal, given his very best performance came in much faster conditions than those present at Doncaster that day.
Final Official Rating: 111
Best Speed Rating: 108
Subastar
Big things were expected after the Roger Varian trained colt impressed on his sole run as a juvenile. However, he got beaten by over nine lengths on what turned out to be his only start this season, when third of four in the Listed Newmarket Stakes in April.
Connections mentioned they would take their time with this “really nice prospect”. He had subsequent entries at Royal Ascot – the Hampton Court touted as the likeliest race to run in the week leading up to the Royal racing event. He was never seen again, though.
This colt by Sea The Stars was a May foal. I would hope we may see him next year as a 4-year-old. He has been gelded in October, which may be a positive sign for a campaign in 2023.
It’s all about Baaeed. Unbeaten in ten career starts, he comes here after that massive performance in the Juddmonte International Stakes. He’s very much expected to win in style this afternoon.
Retirement beckons afterwards, and surely the smartest fillies are waiting for him in the breeding shed next year. That’s for then. It’s a bid for racing greatness here and now.
In truth, though, I have been somewhat reserved in getting overly excited about what Baaeed had done until he demolished a strong field at York in August.
The reason a simple one: I hold topspeed close to my heart as a KPI if it comes to judging race horses. Prior to the Juddmonte, Baaeed’s career-best of 106 was quite good, but far from brilliant – especially given the comparisons to the true greats of the recent past, like his sire Sea The Stars, or Frankel.
Even my beloved Paco Boy achieved much better; yet, I as the most enthusiastic Paco Boy fan in the world, have to admit, he was not one of the greatest the sport had ever seen.
Roll on the 17th August 2022: Juddomonte International Stakes – Baaeed eases into the lead, effortless, floating over the ground, majestically; he quickens in impressive style and slaughters a labouring Mishriff by 6½ lengths.
Nearly as important as the margin of victory: Baaeed achieved a topspeed rating of 124. Finally a superb performance on this measure as well.
Any concerns over the trip were convincingly put to bed. Connections decided against moving up to the Arc distance subsequently, though. Probably a wise decision in hindsight.
Baaeed – a perfect 10 out of 10 – is impossible to oppose today….. or is he? Most likely, I am clearly in the minority: I still question whether he deserves to be called a “true great”. In my view: not yet.
It’s possibly harsh to say he has to prove himself today. Yet, in my eyes he’s got to prove his greatness: a performance similar to York, and I am going to be fully on board.
That says, he faces two real dangers today: the ground and a fresh Adayar.
Softish ground isn’t a big deal, given Baaeed has won in these conditions in the past. However, he never faced a rival as classy as Adayar in these conditions. I firmly believe Baaeed can’t quite produce the same change of gear on this type of ground.
Baaeed is vulnerable: he produced a 94 best topspeed rating on ground when the word soft appeared in the going description. It’s likely he’s a better horse today than the last time he encountered softish ground; nonetheless, it’s a question mark.
That brings me to Adayar. The only serious opposition today. We haven’t seen much of last years Derby and King George hero. You have to worry about his disrupted year.
On the other hand, it gives him the opportunity to arrive fresh, without a hard season in his legs, after a solid, if unspectacular comeback run at Doncaster last month.
If – and it’s a proper if – Adayar is anywhere near as good as he was last season, then he’ll be a formidable danger to Baaeed. Because let’s remember, he produced his two best performances with cut in the ground in the Derby, and subsequently here at Ascot in the King George, then on fast ground. This versatility could be key.
He ran a huge race in the Arc toward the end of last season; one can forgive a subsequent poor run in the Champions Stakes. The drop to 10 furlongs is another question mark I have. On the other hand, given the softish ground, it could prove ideal, especially if William Buick is bold enough to kick on once the field turns for home. Adayar isn’t slow, and one thing is for sure: he will stay all the way to the line.
Tactically it’s going to be intriguing: what’s Crowley’s game plan? From the #1 draw, he may get boxed in, if he doesn’t move forward right away. I doubt he wants to be too aggressive early on, though. That’s a clear danger, especially if the ground takes something out of Baaeed’s turn of foot.
At the given prices, I simply can’t ignore Adayar. I have question marks. But I have them over Baaeed as well. He’ still by far the likeliest winner, mind. And the fan in me wants him to bow out in style. Yet, the punter in me says a fit and happy Adayar has a better than 10% chance to win a third career Group 1 this afternoon.
A shoutout for Royal Champion: a huge price, one who I feel could outrun this price tag (can be backed at 160s on Exchanges). I was hugely impressed with his recent Ayr run. One to keep an eye on for the future, in any case.
10pts win – Adayar @ 9/1
………….
3.50 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
Perhaps it’s the end of the road for veteran Dark Shot after a number of recent below par performances; however, he was earlier this season still running to low 70 ratings, with a really strong run only back in July at Goodwood, when a neck beaten runner-up.
He was rated 69 and ran to topspeed 67 that day – a seasonal best on that measure, although it was especially his Doncaster 4th place finish a few weeks earlier that caught my eye.
He couldn’t back up those runs the last three times, but two came at Southwell on the All-Weather. He weakened badly in all three races, though. A worry.
But: Dark Shot won this very same race 12 months ago. He’s on a lower mark, will enjoy the return to soft ground and has a solid draw to attack the race from.
A seriously competitive Handicap. I can make a case for a number of horses here. And that’s why I’d rather not get involved in these type of races – usually. But I am too excited about Migdam not to get involved after all.
He is short enough in the betting but I reckon could look like a generous price post race if he turns out to be anywhere near as good as I think he can be.
Leaving his debut firmly behind in when winning his second and third career run last year, he started this season at Doncaster last month. It was his handicap debut as well and he proved to be well ahead of his opening mark.
He travelled well, he was brave, he overcame some bumps and trouble during the race and then kicked away in impressive fasion in the final furlong to leave some decent opposition standing – including next time out winner Adjourn.
This here is much harder and he’s 5lb higher in the mark: he’s yet to run especially fast judged on topspeed. But he looks to have tons of upside, possibly as a stakes horse and should be capable of better than a 95 Official Rating. He was also noted to have been working really well at home too, which gives me additional confidence.
10pts win – Migdam @ 7/2
…….
7.30 Epsom: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Falesia Beach on decent ground over 7 furlongs off a 71 mar? Sounds like the ideal scenario I envisioned when she ran into my notebook at Newmarket six weeks ago.
Back then over 6 furlongs, she was outpaced at various stages of the race but fought really gamely all the way to the line to finish third only half a lengths beaten.
Clearly she needs an additional furlong, as does her pedigree suggest given the stamina on the dam side, plus previous performances indicating that too.
She is still lightly raced enough to see some improvement, certainly over 7 furlongs on decent to fast ground, which, judged by the Newmarket performance, could be what she wants.
She ran to topspeed 71 that day too. So if she can improve for the additional furlong on this type of ground then there is every chance she will be well-handicapped.
Third winner for the month last night with Liberty Breeze winning at Catterick in really nice fashion. It couldn’t have been going any better from start to finish. Once she hit the front she put it to bed nicely. Back in green for July, but the month is still fresh.
Mr Marvlos ran a shocker at Kempton after a poor start. My record on the All-Weather over the last twelve months is quite appalling. It’s something I need to be more selective and only back a certain type of horse.
The same goes for class 6 Handicaps. Even though Liberty Breeze was a winner in the lowest grade yesterday, my record is negative over this year and also if looking further back, even if only accounting for turf races. This might be down to the nature of these low-grade races where you never can be sure who’s there to run on merit or who’s on a going day.
I don’t find the same issues even if only one grade higher, in class 5. You would think the difference in class is marginal but it’s not. You regularly see some talented horses run in this lowly grade that can then go on to move up the “food chain”.
………..
6.53 Epsom: Class 5 Handicap, 7f
This is quite a competitive little heat, the favourite Otago certainly a fair one given his course and distance record. Most rivals can’t be discounted, though, hence I feel Otago takes too much space in this market.
The one that interests me most is Hector Loza: for a new yard with a reduced mark, a solid 3lb claimer on board, a good draw to attack the race in his usual front-running style and a track that can favour those with the speed over this trip on fast ground.
There are obvious question marks. His recent performances were poor. A change of scenery needs to sweeten him up. I have also question marks on the fast ground given his best is on the All-Weather and he wore bandages the last time out.
But at the same time Hector Loza is still rather unexposed on turf and has shown in his limited runs on the green grass that he acts on it. His career-best came in a Group 3 on fast ground over 7 furlongs a few years ago.
He stays the trip and ran eight times in his career to topspeeds of 54 plus. The last time matching this when a credible third at Wolverhampton in December when doing way too much in front.
He’s 10lb lower in the ratings today. There are reasons for that but any return to some kind of form, and if he takes well to the fast ground around Epsom, he could be hard to peg back once in front.
Horseracing - International . COM 