Tag Archives: Hamilton

Tuesday Selections: August, 21st 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

3.50 Hamilton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

True Romance drops for the first time into a class Handicap ad also down to a career lowest mark of 56. Reason for this are four incredibly poor showings this year – a surprise after the gelding looked reasonably progressive last year.

Clearly the yard change hasn’t done him any good, on the other hand his SP’s tell a story of a horse not fancied to do anything in those four starts anyway.

It looks different today, with money coming on for True Romance, who’s backed well and besides the low mark and drop in class also has blinkers fitted for the first time. That might be enough to revive him and any return to some sort of last years form will see him go close.

Selection:
10pts win – True Romance @ 10/1 MB

Advertisements

Saturday Selections: July, 14th 2018

DSC_1062

1.40 Newmarket: Class 2 Handicap, 7f

Tough race to break down, but I feel, despite the big price, there is a good case to be made for the only three year old in the race – Cardsharp.

A runner-up in the Middle Park Stakes last year, he has trained on as he won a good listed race last month and subsequently wasn’t totally disgraced in hotter company.

This here ain’t much easier, given he has a massive handicap mark to carry around. But WFA allowance lessens the burden a bit. He also has ran to a 100+ time speed rating in the past, which is a sign of high class horse.

Given he brings proven Group class form into this race, enjoys fast ground and has fair recent form. The step up to 7f is a question mark as he’s not proven yet to be able to bring his 6f form over the longer trip.

But, in fairness, he ran in hot races over 7f and on pedigree he actually should be excel this sort of distance. The likely fast will surely be a help today to see him to best effect, so at a big price I give Cardsharp a decent chance to be in the shake up when it matters.

Selection:
10pts win – Cardsharp @ 20/1 PP

……..

7.30 Hamilton: Class 4 Handicap, 12f

Killdeer should progress nicely and with the WFA advantage is clearly the one to beat. Nonetheless it’s not a given, and with proven force Mutadaffeq in the race, I side with the experience here.

Mutadaffeq has dropped to a sexy mark despite running relatively well in recent weeks. It’s true he looked in the grip of the handicapper but that solely because of consistency. He’s down a pound on his last winning mark, even though on soft ground, he also has winning form on a fast surface.

The fact Mutadaffeq has ran to time speed rating of 85 in the past suggests he’s due for a big performance today over a distance he’s a 23% strike rate.

Selection:
10pts win – Mutadaffeq @ 4/1 MB

Wednesday Selection: June, 6th 2018

DSC_1062

4.30 Hamilton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Off 2lb lower than his last winning mark, Inexes, who also won this very same race two years on the bounce, has a good chance to complete the hat-trick.

However, I feel he had things very much going for himself the last two years and with Start Time there is really strong opponent to beat, which may prove too much this time.

Start Time used to be a Group 3 placed individual in Godolphin colours years ago, but ever since then things haven’t gone well for him. It took him a while to fire for his new yard after missing more than a whole year and it took him a while to get going last season.

He ended 2017 with two promising efforts. A fine third in a Notthingham Handicap over the minimum trip, followed up by a 3 lengths beaten eight at Newcastle’s All-Weather that was better than the bare form suggests.

On seasonal return in April, Start Time ran out a strong third in a 6f Thirsk Handicap. The handicapper has left him alone for this strong effort and off the same mark, 4lb lower than when third at Nottingham last November, he looks ready for a massive run today.

The drying ground shouldn’t be an issue, however, a perfect draw in six should ensure a perfect spot on the stand side rail tracking the pace.

Selection:
10pts win – Start Time @ 3/1 VC

Thursday Selections: May, 31st 2018

DSC_1062

3.30 Hamilton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 3f

Small but competitive race. Favourite Jabber looks a fine chance after a recent Chester win, however off 6lb higher he appears vulnerable all the same.

I really like the chance of Mutadaffeq, in contrast. You can easily cross a line through his two 2018 runs. In big fields things worked very much against him on both occasions.

Thanks to that he drops down to a tasty mark off 84 – he won off 2lb higher last August. A smaller field, with less chance for interference where he might even can dominate if he wishes to go forward – when he won a 5-runner class 3 Handicap at Pontefract last year he made all.

Mutadaffeq has ran to a time speed rating of 85 as well as numerous 85+ RPR’s in the past, so it’s fair to assume if he is anywhere near his best, with conditions likely to suit, he should go very close today.

Selection:
10pts win – Mutadaffeq @ 5/1 GB