A race of this nature looks highly competitive but the ground will only allow a select few to get involved. I wouldn’t fancy a horse on a seasonal return here at all, and rather am looking for race fitness coupled with form on this ground.
With that in mind, I can’t look past Glorious Angel, the 4-year-old filly, who put up a huge performance earlier this week at Pontefract as a runner-up.
It’s tough going back to back in such short space of time, but sprinters can recover quicker, and the Tuer yard is in superb form also.
At Pontefract she had to overcome the widest and as a consequence had to do more in the early part of the race than the eventual winner. She was gutsy all the way to the line, though.
Her two runs prior this year were also noteworthy. She did way too much in a hot Listed contest at Doncaster last month over 6f, and prior on her seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton over 7f, she was still ahead with just over a furlong to go, before running out of fuel.
This Bath test on heavy ground over the minimum trip, may be the absolute ideal scenario to add a 6th career win to her CV.
Even though her win record wouldn’t quite tell the story, Glorious Angel’s career best performances all came over 5 furlongs in deep ground. She stays further, which can be of benefit, given there should be plenty of pace here.
That in itself will be of benefit, given the filly can be keen early on. Her low weight and the assistance of solid 5lb claiming apprentice Joe Leavy can only be of benefit in these conditions.
From a handicap perspective, she is certainly rated to go close, judged on last Octobers career-best effort over 5f in heavy ground at Doncaster, where she finished a gallant 2nd, off 87, achieving an 86 speed rating.
Down to 84, with the 5lb claim, in conditions she enjoys, certainly race fit, hopefully recovered well enough from Tuesday, she’s a massive runner here and I still find value in the current price.
Not gonna happen right now, is it? Huge run by Barrier despite drifting out to 33s for 2nd place, but that’s no good for me as a win only backer. Bell Song was well backed down to 9/2 SP, and then didn’t get a run from off the pace.
Searching vain for the elusive next winner. “Funny” thing: pretty much the exact same happened last year at this time of the year. A torrid first half of June.
…….
4.10 Bath: Class 6 Handicap, 1m
Lunario was arguably an unfortunate 3rd last time at Lingfield, when beaten in the tightest of finishes in a photo that could have gone either way. On a different day he could have been the winner.
Fair arguments can be brought forward for the notion that he was the ‘moral winner’ – if such thing would exist – and he should be able to make amends here on Saturday.
He meets Gone once again, the winner last time at Lingfield, but on better terms. Because Gone has gone up a couple of pounds, whereas Lunario remains on the same mark.
Over 7.5 furlongs at Lingfield last time out I felt the performance warranted an upgrade, though. And if that proves correct, the colt could be well-handicapped.
There he was slightly bumped by a rival as the left the gates. Still somewhat green and raw, he was niggled behind the leading horses, possibly even a bit flat footed, but then made huge progress on the outside once pulled out for a clear view of the final furlong.
Even tough he seemed destined to run home and grab the W, he didn’t help his case when hanging badly to the left, as he continued showing greenness.
That was Lunario’s Handicap debut and it’s fair to assume he can progress from here. If he can than there is every possibility that he’s better than a 65 Official Rating.
He steps up in trip, albeit ever so slightly. On pedigree there’s no doubt he’ll stay a mile, in any case.
It’s also worth pointing out that at Lingfield he achieved a 65 speed rating, despite everything that went wrong on the day. Therefore, he must have a massive chance to win, if he runs straight to the line.
10pts win – Lunario @ 5/1
…….
1.45 Scottsville: Grade 3, Track And Ball Derby, 12f
Airways Law is one I’m tracking for over a year now, ever since he caught the eye on the All-Weather with some scintillating performances early in his career, before he won a Durban July trial in impressive fashion and subsequently ran an eyecatching race in the July.
He’s hard to fancy on recent form, or basically anything he had done since last July in four subsequent runs. Although, his two runs in Grade 2 company in December and January were a lot better than the bare form suggested.
The gelding had a recent comeback run here at Scottsville after about 6 months off the track. He had a tough task over the short trip and on the weights and wasn’t expected to do much.
A 12/12, 13 lengths beaten result doesn’t instill much confidence that he’s anywhere near in form. But as he moves up in trip, and quite significantly, it’s should be noted Airways Law usually improves for his second run.
There is every chance that this here is a prep run for a bigger date on the July card (or the big one itself), but the fact he 2/3 for rest+2 is pointing more toward that this is his “July”, as he also would need to show a significant return to form to feature in any future big race.
The trip is on the far end of what the gelding is likely to stay. On the other hand they won’t go a mad gallop and this race is much easier than the Grade 2’s he ran in prior.
Also, looking back to last years July run, which was as far as he ever went, he stayed on pretty well This is a very winnable contest and the fact he travelled well and with enthusiasm during his recent reappearance suggests there is still some fire in the belly.
A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous eyecatchers here.
Lil Guff 22/05/23 – 5.00 Windsor:
Settled in rear against the inside rail, before gradually moving over to the other side, travelling well, but not getting a run through over one furlong out, when she tried to progress on the widest outside, with a shifting rival not helping to get clear passage there either.
Finished a fine 3rd. Fast ground, minimum trip not ideal. All best career performances over 6 furlongs, and enjoys less lively ground too. Down to a good mark, won off 76 and 82 last summer.
A 76 speed rating here and 79 speed rating in April suggest she’s in the same form now. Ideally want to see her up in trip, though.
Travelled really well in his group. Fine progress from halfway through and won his group comfortably. Couldn’t catch the winner who travelled alone on the far side.
Ran the best finishing speed. Clearly in good form and on solid mark off 80 having ran to 80 and 83 speed rating last year. Better over 6f on fast ground. Didn’t have that yet this year.
Set hot pace from the front and travelled strongly until getting quite tired from over 1f out to finish 4th eventually as he’s getting swamped late. Should be good form.
Down to fine mark. In good form. Best with ease in the ground, hence this run warrants an upgrade, but is competitive on fast too, and continues to drop a seriously intriguing mark in any case.
Sluggish start, recovered and went forward to lead at a red hot pace. Found plenty under pressure and only late beaten by two from off the pace.
Good speed rating, which is believable. Ran to near similar speed rating a month earlier on the All-Weather. Definitely in good form but has issues and the hood didn’t seem to help. Would stay a mile if he could settle.
Jury is out how much he’s got in hand these days, but worth another try over 7 furlongs as he has been dropped 2lb by the handicapper for this fine effort.
Pushed a hot pace from the front as part of a duo. Kept fighting well to the line under pressure and nearly held on fending off all challengers bar the winner who came from off the pace.
Huge run. 1st tongue tie, responded well here as well for the decent ground. Deserves a chance in these circumstances again. Won off 73 last autumn in fine style and achieved 77 speed rating.
Was disappointing next time. However was a drifter on the day in the betting, never seemed to travel too well and maybe just doesn’t like ground that fast.
Caught seriously wide from #14 draw. Did a lot to cross over and get into a position where she tracked the hot pace. Some progress in the home straight before getting tired and also hampered 1f out.
Ran better than bare form lto on Handicap debut as well. Not ridden with intend to obtain best result last two times. The game is in the name…. down to 50 now interesting, if handbrake is off, especially with any support in the betting.
Travelled like a dream in midfield, well covered. Came through strongly, hard on the bridle, going through a gap over 2 furlongs out. Was eventually outkicked and not had the speed to go with the winner but ran on well.
Has the pedigree to improve beyond six furlongs. Will be of serious interest up in trip if she can settle. Has won and ran well over sprint trips already. The way she travelles suggests there’s talent better than a 78 OR.
Forced to settle off the pace the way the race developed. Was going well but had to wait for room as no gap opened late. Finished best in the final furlong.
Clear return to form after some lesser efforts on the All-Weather. Did well on the sand during winter, though. Down to sexy mark and not out of it on turf either, despite 0/5 record. Never expected in those runs but clearly handles fast ground.
Quickly restraint in rear of the field against the inside rail. Was going pretty well but progress stopped as he was stuck behind a wall of horses, short of room and hampered from two furlongs until late before in the clear inside the final furlong and finished nicely.
Only slowly drops in the mark. Effective over a variety of sprint trips and acts on nearly all ground. Not tremendously well-handicapped but placed off higher and may not be far off a big run if allowed to run on merit.
Swerved to his left out of the gate then settled in midfield. Travelled strongly on the bridle over 2f out behind horses but had to wait for room and switch to the inside for a run. Finished best.
Started the first two furlongs & finished the final furlong faster than the the first two home (fastest final furlong). May not truly stay 1m and would ideally drop to 7f. Lightly raced, good speed rating here as well.
Tracked the pace against the inside rail for most of the race until the two groups merged. He found himself shot of room multiple times and only late was able to get properly into the clear to finish strongly.
Strong form. Ran to 80 speed rating. Seemed to enjoy the decent ground and has responded for blinkers the last two. Showed promise as a juvenile. Clearly better than what he has shown up to now.
If he’s kept in handicap company he’ll be well-handicapped. Move up in trip is certainly preferable.
Travelled in midfield, not going smoothly, niggled along, possibly found the pace over 7f on fastish ground too hot. Kept going well, though. Not clear run over 2f out and slightly hampered over 1f out.
Handicap debut and should be better than this. Decent speed rating. Should move up in trip again and dangerous off 87 on decent ground.
His chances were compromised from the wide draw. He didn’t get in to find cover and as a consequence always travelled three wide, mostly without cover, off the pace. Travelled well and made good progress from over 3f out before getting tired in the final furlong.
May not quite stay a mile. 7f most likely ideal. Impressive win as a juvenile. High enough mark but deserves chance over 7f. He usually can go forward. Deserves chance in easier race.
Huge disadvantage the low draw that day. In rear early on, before excellent progress from three furlong out on the far side. Did well to run so well for so long.
Better over 6f, ideally with decent to fast ground. One who needs things to fall right but ran solid last season still and could be underestimated in the right race.
Widest draw away from the inside rail huge disadvantage. Bumped after the start. Was going okay but short of room over 2f out. Disaster run. Ran on well prior on his handicap debut as well.
Could be better than this. May prefer ease in the ground and/or could enjoy an additional furlong as he doesn’t seem to have the speed for fast 6f. Down to 72 intriguing.
Off to a good start, tracked pace keenly early on. Travelled well enough before he became a bit flat footed over 2 furlongs out as the sedate pace increased. Lost ground but stamina kicked in and he flew home the final furlong.
Could enjoy moving up in trip if the pace is solid. Smart prospect and may be underestimated because his profile isn’t that sexy, especially after his Dubai flop.
Flew down the first half of the race, was over a full second faster to the 3f marker than the eventual winner. Gradually tired but was game to the line.
Bumped into a well-handicapped one on seasonal reappearance lto. Can get home but more often than not 7f is a stretch, probably best over 6f. down to solid mark and clearly in form a pound below his last winning mark.
Moved quickly forward from wider than ideal draw and travelled very wide before moving across to lead. Was going well for long and showed good attitude late as well.
Best over 5f. Down to intriguing mark. Ran well over minimum trip on fast ground last year. Didn’t get the best of luck on the AW lately but finished well, especially last time at Southwell.
Quick start, led from the front as part of duo. Travelled strongly approaching 2f out before he came under severe pressure. beaten by winner from off the pace.
Still a maiden but ran twice 62+ speed ratings. may not stay 7f unless gifted a soft lead. drop to 6f really interesting off career-lowest mark.
Set off very fast, going sprinter pace the first few furlongs, as part of a duo. Kept going well, still ahead 1f out, swamped late. huge run and return to form. down to sexy mark, judged on last season.
Should be strong form. Winner was well-handicapped. Would be most interesting for drop to 7f, even though he stays further, a mile with little pace competition could also be interesting.
Right up with the pace, lead early then chased it. Seemingly going backwards from 2f out but kept on well. Bumped slightly over 1f out and squeezed. Hot race and strong form most likely.
Should find an easier one and can win and may improve with experience still. May also be able to drop to 6f.
Set strong pace from the front. Had the field on the stretch halfway out. Kicked clear and only late beaten by very well-handicapped horse.
May go up a couple of pounds but ran 66 speed rating here and 67 in the past. Clearly best on decent ground, and could go well in the right race of revised mark still in right conditions.
Bumped at the start, settled in rear, made some good progress travelling well from over 3f out on the outside of the field. Impeded 2f out, ran home solid enough.
Looks a big horse. May needed the run still. Still lightly raced, handicap debut and worth to watch out for over 7f-1m on decent ground. Full-sister achieved nothing, so not too many chances given.
Dwelt, keen in rear, seemed difficult to steer and went very wide. great progress and finished second on the line despite jockey tried to pull up early.
Dropped another couple of pounds in the meantime. Run better last few runs than bare form. Still a maiden but could cherry ripe potentially. Entry next week at Haydock intriguing.
Dwelt from wide draw, rushed forward on outside before crossing over to lead the field. Was going well and seriously gutsy to stay in front for as long as he did.
Career best speed rating. clearly back in form. Not on to trust to follow-up, but worth to check if he drops to 7f again as the additional half furlong may have been a bit too far here.
Tracked the pace on far side, quite prominently ridden. Travelled well to 2f out but couldn’t quite keep up the effort in the closing stages. Did best of those low drawn, which is often a disadvantage over this CD.
Career-best on speed ratings, as low as that is. 7f on fast ground ideal and interesting in a similarly poor race when she has a good draw.
Dwelt and awkward out of the gate. Settled in midfield, bumped into rival before the first turn. Made progress and found a route through to challenge, though the winner was long gone. Ran on well.
Confirmed lto promise. Down to fine mark. Best on decent ground (ideally no worse than yielding), so could be intriguing on a more conventional track if the dry spell continues. However, can have issues at the gate.
Travelled seriously well on the far side, covered up behind the pace. Pulled out over 2f out and kicked on well to lead, before late beaten by horse on the stands’ side.
Well handicapped on last-years form. Clearly back in form as he showed some promise at Catterick prior too.
He enjoys decent ground and should remain dangerous even with a small hike in the ratings.
A finish dominated by those ridden with restraint. Which was somewhat surprising, because they didn’t go too hard in the first half of the race, with a finishing speed of 116% for the winner, Auguste Rodin (the par for the Derby distance at Epsom is around 111%) not quite telling the tale, perhaps.
King Of Steel raced the closest to the pace from those who made any impact in the closing stages. He travelled pretty well in midfield and kicked on strongly from over 3f out, before being outstayed in the final furlong by the Aiden O’Brien trained colt.
White Birch came from very far back and made great progress on the outside in the home straight. He’s an obvious eyecatcher in that sense. However, there a couple of others who interest me more for the future.
Sprewell is probably the one who left the biggest impression on me. I was certainly not overly keen on him beforehand, but he certainly confirmed his huge talent in the Derby.
It was his fifth career start, but the first time going over the Derby trip. He looked still a bit keen and perhaps green at various stages of the race, hence the fact he finished so well in 4th, without ever appearing with a shot of winning, truth told, is noteworthy.
He found himself short of room at a crucial stage of the race over 2.5f out, though. Subsequently he got badly unbalanced, yet found his momentum quickly again and ran on before his stamina ran out in the final furlong.
Fast ground clearly wasn’t an issue. But the Derby trip may stretch his stamina, especially in a properly run race. However, he has shown his class over 10 furlongs already. That looks his trip. He’s one I’ll track.
Waipiro endured a disaster run. he dwelt, was then caught behind a wall of horses, trailed the field and had to come around wide for a run.
He made excellent progress from 4f out around Tattenham Corner, before his effort fizzled out from 2f out. He probably didn’t get the trip. Though, I thought the confirmed the promise he showed at Newmarket and at Lingfield.
Whether he’s a genuine Group 1 horse remains to be seen. He could be underestimated if he drops down to 10 furlongs, though.
Artistic Star ran a race of two halves, so to speak. Initially I was disappointed with his run. I backed him, and thought he would do much better than a 11 lengths beaten 7th place.
However, he ran a race full of promise. After a solid start he didn’t travel well, niggled at various stages. Perhaps inexperience in such a big, tight field was to blame.
Three furlongs from home he was relegated to last even, before the penny seemed to drop and he motored home in the 4rd fastest final 3f split to pass many tired horses.
He’ll have learned plenty and remains at this stage an exciting prospect after two excellent career performances prior where he ran strong speed ratings for an inexperienced horse.
Whether he’s Group 1 class remains to be seen. His siblings were smart horses but not quite top-notchers. He looks to stay the Derby distance, much like they did, though.
A competitive renewal of the Musirora Stakes. Gather Ye Rosebuds looks potentially smart having run to a serious speed rating on her debut about three weeks ago.
But I’ll stick to Soul Sister, one of my Horses to Follow this year, despite a desperate seasonal reappearance, last month at Doncaster.
That run looks bad. But it can be totally ignored, in my view. The deep ground, 7 furlongs, her first run for the year. All came together and worked against her.
This daughter of Frankel should very much improve for better ground and as she moves up in trip.
Keeping that in mind, the more it looks impressive what she did on her sole run as a juvenile last year on soft ground over a mile at Doncaster.
That day she showed a superb attitude and staying qualities on her debut as she stayed on strongly to get up in the dying strides in a head-to-head battle.
She possesses a lot of stamina and will have no issues stepping to 10 furlongs, and possibly beyond. Her full-siblings have been pretty smart in their own right as well.
I am more than happy to give her ‘another’ chance, even though I had no interest to back her in the Fred Darling. I feel this is her first proper race this season and she is clearly overpriced.
10pts win – Soul Sister @ 21/1
……
8.10 Bath: Class 6 Handicap, 10f
Chinthurst is one of those handicappers I’m following this year as I believe he could have quite a bit in hand once he races over the right trip.
I was taken by his seasonal reappearance at Windsor last month in seriously deep ground. He travelled pretty well for a long time before he fell away badly to finish a long beaten 4th.
But this was a strong race, he may have needed it in any case, and there’s every chance he can improve from the outing and enjoy the better conditions today a bit more.
He also steps up in trip to 10 furlongs, which is most likely to suit. He’s a son of Nathanial out of a Dylan Thomas mare – you can be almost certain he’s going to improve as a 3-year-old and as he moves up in trip.
With that in mind, I felt what he did as a juvenile warrants respect and proved there is possibly more ability than his current lowly rating suggests.
After three unremarkable qualifying runs, he improved markedly on his Handicap debut and final run in 2022 at Brighton over 7 furlongs.
There he found himself multiple times outpaced but kept showing a positive attitude as he finished well up the hill and achieved a 53 speed rating.
The performance warrants an upgrade, as the form has worked out well in the meantime, and he’s rated only a pound higher today.
The wide draw and large field are a small concern. I also wouldn’t hope the ground dries out to anything beyond good. At given prices, and granted he’s been drifting, it’s worth taking the risk here.
First winner for the month on Wednesday: Bang On The Bell (9/2; 4/1 SP) won his race at Wolverhampton. Although, not quite in the manner I had anticipated as he blew the start and had do it the hard way. Thankfully, he held on and showed grit in the final furlong.
Dog Fox was withdrawn, unfortunately; after misbehaving in the stalls; there’ll be another day.
Sharon Macready refused to settle as they tried to drop her in. I could have seen that coming. She’s done it before. Like…. always. Even over the minimum trip. Backing her over 6 furlongs was simply a poor decision.
……….
3.15 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 6f
The “All-Weather Vase Sprint Handicap” looks one of those uncompetitive-competitive handicaps. Plenty of runners, more or less similar ability, plenty of chances without any real standout and very few well-handicapped ones, if any.
Hence I’m prepared to give Emperor Spirit a solid shout at this, who seems overpriced in this field, for a myriad of reasons.
For one, it’s only two runs back that he seriously caught the eye at Newcastle:
He grabbed the lead promptly, set a red hot pace, but was pestered by a rival throughout, yet travelled strongly, before drifting across the track as he got really tired in the closing stages and was eventually overpowered by two horses from off the pace to finish third.
That was a strong performance and rock solid form, and his subsequent and most recent run doesn’t distract from it in my view – he was well beaten when last seen but that was a hot 5 furlong sprint on his debut for a new yard. No doubt the minimum trip is too sharp.
He ran pretty well all winter, though; especially over this course and distance in early December off 5lb higher than he’s currently rated, going off the 15/8 favourite, only beaten late in the day – doing so with cheek pieces fitted, which are on here again after an absence recently.
Subsequent form did suggest he ran not far below that level of form; although he’s a horse who finds it tough to get his head in front, hence he has fallen ever so slightly down to a 85 mark now.
He ran to higher speed ratings in the past, so there is an argument to be made that he’s weighted to win.
The race may develop to his advantage: he could establish an easy lead and good early rhythm and subsequently tough to peg back for a third career victory. He’s got the benefit of the #1 draw and there’s not too much pace pressure especially as other prominent horses are wider drawn.
10pts win – Emperor Spirit @ 11/1
…….
3.25 Bath: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 3.5f
On the basis of ground, trip and handicap mark one can rule out more than half the field. Gastronomy seems the default favourite given his unexposed profile for strong connections, but is clearly poor value given the short price with questions to answers on ground and trip.
Nonetheless, the one I have an eye on is the 5-yeaer-old mare Reach, who could be quite well handicapped here.
She’s one I flagged in the Handicappers To Follow piece, although I didn’t expect to find such an ideal opportunity so soon after publishing the list.
Reach is very lightly raced for her age. She created a strong impression on her first two starts before winning in emphatic fashion at Pontefract in autumn, when upped to 12 furlongs.
She travelled strongly on Handicap debut subsequently, but faded badly over the shorter 10 furlongs; perhaps she paid for having three runs in rather quick succession.
The mare looks all stamina and should have more to offer off 74 going up in trip again, especially with cut in the ground.
I’ve got little doubts about her race fitness. I expect her to be ready to go. Connections couldn’t have hoped for a better race to kick-off the season.
Make that three days three winners on the bounce. Ideal Guest stormed his way up and down the Brighton 7 furlongs today. There was no pace on, nobody wanted to get on with things other than Ideal Guest. That was a concern, but it didn’t matter in the end.
Tom Queally is a good pilot and was an even better passenger here. He didn’t fight to be the boss. Ideal Guest was firmly in charge and had the field off the bridle approaching 3 furlongs from home going a thousand miles an hour. Any doubts that he may die up the final hill to the finish line were quickly put to bed.
7/1 was a huge price. In the preview I said Ideal Guest could have up to 10lb in hand and will win if he settles. He didn’t settle but had too much in hand with the fast conditions and the drop in trip doing wonders too. It’s good to get it right once in a while.
Back in healthy profit for June. I can’t fathom how quickly this game can turn. I must confess I gave it a good fist bump when Ideal Guest passed the line. Never too high, never too low should be the mantra of any aspiring punter who wants to make a long-term profit. It’s never about the now and always about the later.
However, sometimes it’s very much about the “now”. It’s only a few days ago that I was writing about experiencing one – if not the – worst slump of form in the last five years or so. Was it bad luck or were my methods broken? I wasn’t sure other than I knew something did go badly wrong. It started already in May. perhaps I gonna write another time in more detail on the lessens learned from these last four weeks. There was plenty learned. And that is always a good thing.
……..
7.50 Bath: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 3.5f
Small field but competitive field. Yet it looks significant that the Johnston team travels to Bath with Franny Norton in the saddle for this single race. They have a strong record here, even though not as many runners lately. Norton has been quite selective with his Bath rides, too, it seems.
That gives me added confidence that Cavendish is ready to strike. He looks to be running over the right trip and showed more than the bare form suggested the last couple of runs, especially as the form of those races looks pretty solid.
He fared best of the leaders at Yarmouth when setting a fast pace and I quite liked the way he kept going pretty much right to the end after being heavily challenged over three furlongs out. The runner-up has already won in the meantime, giving this form a good look.
Next time Cavendish was up in trip to what looked on paper ideal, but he raced wide and inefficient for the most part, and hadn’t much left in the home straight.
He dropped another 3lb in the meantime but is still pretty unexposed over these sort of distances. His dam was a smart handicapper and winner over 12f furlongs and 13 furlongs. So there’s every chance Cavendish can improve over the trip.
He ran to topspeed 49 at Yarmouth, that ties in well with his current mark. Any bit of improvement will see him go very close.
Third day of the Craven meeting. But my eyes are drawn to Bath for an eye-catching betting proposition. Though, I also want to take a look back at the Craven Stakes.
Native Trail was the main act on Wednesday at Newmarket. The way he won the Craven Stakes was impressive. Even though, one could also argue this was expected after what he had done as a juvenile.
Personally I think the performance was impressive for the simple fact that we have seen often enough in the past how these top-class 2-year-olds wouldn’t train on or simply lose their edge as the rest of the pack has caught up physically and mentally.
That sort of fate may still beckon for Native Trail later the year. For now he must be considered the prime candidate for the 2000 Guineas, though, and the betting market says as much. There’s no secret here.
However, the fact he ran out an easy victory yesterday, achieving a topspeed rating of 100 on his seasonal reappearance, is impressive in my eyes. He’s ran three times in a row to TS 100 now. That’s the sign of a quality colt. And I would be more than hopeful that he can improve on that if properly asked for full effort in the Guineas.
My eyes were naturally drawn to Claymore in the Craven. Having called him out as one of my 5 To Follow I was anxious whether the bubble would burst as early as his first run as a 3-year-old.
It didn’t. He finished a gallant runner-up. Clearly still green, raw and what Jane Chapple-Hyam called a “big baby” afterwards – who was also seriously unruly before the race – he’ll learn plenty from this experience. He’s not quite cracked topspeed 90 here, but improved on his debut 83 from last year. Surely there is more to come.
Chapple-Hyam mentioned the French Guineas as the likely target as opposed to the Newmarket classic.
…………
4.20 Bath: Class 6 Handicap, 5.5f
As uncompetitive as this Bath opener looks, as much does experience tell us that these races can be pure carnage and tend to produce many hard-luck stories.
I still have to back favourite Fristel. He was one of my eye-catchers from last week and I feel this test over 5.5 furlongs will represent the ideal race for him. He finished much the strongest last Monday at Windsor on his turf debut while not getting a run until very late.
In this class and of his current mark I feel he is seriously well handicapped, particularly with another 3lb off the weight with apprentice Stefano Cherchi on board – which is his sole ride today.
This is Fristel’s 6th career start, only the third in Handicap company. He caught the eye as juvenile on the All-weather as well and as long as he gets a clear run, which is the main danger more than anything in this field, he will have a major shout.
Money is coming all morning so prices may vanish soon. any additional money is an obvious positive pointer to his chances.
This is quite a competitive little race, to be honest. However, it looks a hot mess pace wise and could be set up for a filly or mare who needs it fast to produce some sort of strong staying finish.
I feel this could finally be the day of Accomplice, who has been running really well this season, finishing in the money a number of times, without quite getting there. It’s not so much her ability alone as more the fact she really needs things to fall right, given her running style.
Her last two runs she already looked poised, having fallen to a seriously low handicap mark. Her runs were eye-catching, but she had too much to do both times. Last time out was the clearest of signs, though, that she is ready to win. She trailed the field, but stayed on strongly, weaving through the field, only beaten by three-year-olds in first and second eventually.
Accomplice is now down to an official mark of 54. That is seven pounds lower than she started the turf season and 12lb lower than she started the year, including All-Weather! She won last year a handicap off 66, and achieved seven times already a topspeed rating of 54 plus.
Ground and trip are fine today, the simple test of Ffos Las is sure to suit. A smaller field, likely with a good pace, going against her own sex of a career lowest mark – Accomplice has a prime chance.
Selection:
10pts win – Accomplice @ 8/1 MB
………
3.55 Bath: Class 2 Handicap, 5.5f
Competitive only on the surface, and a race, due to ground and course configuration, that requires in-running luck, but I can easily strike out more than half the field on the simple question: well handicapped?
Big Lachie is one who needs all the luck in the world, given he is drawn low, has a habit of starting slowly and therefore will need gaps to open. But that is offset by the simple fact the 5-year-old is tremendously well handicapped.
He has no issues with the firm ground, which is an important factor on lighting fast bath turf today. He has the speed to win over the minimum trip but can stretch out for an additional furlong, no bother. He’s been in good form all year long and has won already of his current 71 handicap mark here at Bath over 5 furlongs earlier this year.
I feel the handicapper has overreacted a little bit in the mean time and has given Big Lachie a massive chance, dropping him down to 71 again – we’ll take it, of course!
He has won last year twice off 75 and has ran nine times in his career to topspeed ratings of 71 plus. He ran this year to TS 75 when he won here back in June, in fact!
He may lose the race right at the start or won’t get the breaks needed – but if he does, he’ll likely be hard to beat. And if no today, there’ll be a tomorrow, certainly.
Champs De Reves may have a bit of work to do on WFA terms against some better fancied three-year-olds in this field, but I feel the younger rivals are hardly anything to be fearful of. So giving a few pounds away to them is probably not a big deal.
Still a maiden, but Champs De Reves has shown a bit of promise on a few occasions, most notably over this course and distance in May when only beaten by a neck of his current handicap mark. He ran to a topspeed rating of 72, a career best, which isn’t too far off his previous best, 68 when 3rd at Salisbury over 10 furlongs last summer.
He followed up with a fair performance over CD, but despised the cut in the ground when last seen at Newbury. He was a non-runner a couple of times to to soft ground. It is obvious judged on his best he needs good to fast ground, which will be provided today at Bath with a mild, sunny day forecast.
I really like the addition of excellent 5lb claiming Megan Nicholls here. It gives Champs De Reves a fair chance to run a big race and certainly be a better chance than the odds suggest.
A re chance to back a horse on the sand over the summer today: The Blues Master is a silly price. Sure, there is a Mark Prescott favourite who may well be hard to beat if the improvement so often seen in his horses comes to fruition. Though, his record on the All-Weather this year is significantly down compared to other years.
I think this favourite is for the taking at odds-on. Hence The Blues Master is pretty much a logic choice. He returned to the track after a long lay-off when finishing a strong runner-up at Newcastle at the end of June.
Only one pound higher today but a class lower, while stepping up in trip to a more suitable 1 mile & 6 furlongs, given he ran to a topspeed rating of 71 in the past, I feel he will be really competitive today.
Selection:
10pts win – The Blues Master @ 9.5/1 MB
……..
7.30 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Los Camachos on his first run for the John Gallagher yard is an interesting runner in a race that has not too much quality in depth. The gelding was claimed and I would argue he ran pretty to form and current handicap in his last two runs in claiming company.
He appears to be slightly better on the All-Weather, but even on turf, despite a win yet, he’s been four out of six times in the money. He also ran to a topspeed rating of 78 last summer here at Newmarket, something he matched and bettered at the All-Weather.
Los Camachos also ran to TS 77 in a claimer three starts back, suggesting he is still pretty much in this range.
So, for a new yard with an excellent 5lb claimer in the saddle, with conditions to suit, at a track he performed well before, of a mark of 78, I feel this lad is well overpriced.
Selection:
10pts win – Los Camachos@ 17/1 MB
…………
7.50 Bath: Class 4 Handicap, 5 furlongs
As the The Daley Express is out, who’d I’ considered a major player for the victory in this race, it opens the door for Just Glamorous who drops into class 4 where he is three wins from four runs.
The six-year-old may not quite be the force of old but appears to handicapped to go close, nonetheless. He’s been running rather well in four of five starts this season, bar one to forget over in Ireland.
Now down to a mark of 83 again, the same he came an agonizingly close second at Goodwood in May of, when he also matched an 83 topspeed rating, Just Glamorous is weighted to win.
The ground may be a bit too fast to be considered optimum conditions, as he also has an engagement at Thirsk tomorrow, there is a ‘risk’ hell be a none-runner. But he has form on fast surfaces, and with first time cheek pieces fitted plus a pretty competent 7lb claimer in the saddle, I’d love to see him taking his chance this evening.
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