Tag Archives: Lingfield

Betting

Saturday Selections: 11th May 2024

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Right now I’m once again in a most depressing phase of my betting journey. You know the feeling, when whatever you touch, it turns into a stinky brown turd? Yeah, that’s exactly it.

Backing Too Friendly at 14s, well supported before to off to start a 9/2 second favourite, just to bomb out. It must been weeks now that a selection was even within a shot for a place with three furlongs to go. Properly depressing.

…….

3.00 Lingfield: Listed Derby Trial, 1m 3.5f

This looks a wide open renewal that lacks a clear favourite and superstar…. at this stage, at least. Ballysax third Illinois heads the market, though hard to fancy him with a significant amount of confidence, judged on what he’s done so far.

On the other hand, he’ll likely enjoy the better ground, and the AOB yard seems to have kicked into gear this week, in no uncertain terms. Hence a fair default favourite, but nothing more than that.

Camelot son Defiance was a fast finishing second in the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom. That gives him an obvious chance to feature, if he can get off to a better start and doesn’t find himself too far back.

The pace should be decent, so that may play into his hands. But he’s a skinny enough price, and I probably would fancy Illinois in a match bet.

The Euphrates is another AOB trained colt. Really nicely bred, he should also enjoy the better ground and you’d expect him to improve significantly on the bare form he’s sown in three career runs to date.

Meydaan could be a lot better than he showed on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket where he dwelt and made life difficult for himself. He looked an exciting prospect on his sole juvenile run last year.

Arabic Legend has to improve, given his 1/4 record and having been keen enough over 10 furlongs at Epsom last month. Salamanca, a son of Sea The Stars, has a lot to find after two winless career runs, while Ambiente Friendly was well-beaten in his last two runs and doesn’t give the appearance of a Derby prospect.

No doubt, the one I must follow here is Imperial Sovereign. He was quite an eye catcher on his seasonal reappearance at Kempton in a hot Novice race. Only a head beaten behind a possibly seriously smart winner (British Camp one of my horses to follow this year).

That day Imperial Sovereign wasn’t smartly away from the gates, but soon recovered and tracked the pace. He then travelled much the best, on the bridle until 2f out, before being all out to the line to be beaten by a better horse on the day, as close as it was ultimately.

He showed a likeable attitude putting his head down and answering ever call, though. That was only his second career run and he won well on debut last autumn.

From a pedigree perspective the trip isn’t impossible, if not a given that he sees it out. Nonetheless, he’s bred to be classy, and everything he has shown so far points to the son of Frankel certainly having the ability to win at this level.

The dam did her best work with a bit of juice in the ground. Therefore the faster the going gets, the bigger the questions to answer on that front. However, it may help him to stay the trip a little bit better.

In any case, given the open nature of this contest, I feel looks certainly overpriced, given what he’s done so far, and the opposition he encountered (if I’m right that the Kempton race is a strong piece of form, indeed).

10pts win – Imperial Sovereign @ 15.5/1 SM

……

May add one or two additional selections on Saturday morning, depending on how markets develop.

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers #2

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Flat Eyecatchers is a list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on turf and sand. Find all previous eyecatchers always here.

Porfin
19/03/24 – 7.30 Wolverhampton:

Quickly forward from the #8 draw to get to the lead upon entering the first turn. Set fast pace and always kept honest over a trip that stretches his stamina.

Has excuses for some of the last runs, either over too far or not quite an ideal run off marks possible close to what his truly is these days.

Will be highly competitive down to 6f in a race with good draw and suitable pace scenario in 0-55 class.

Sydney Bay
22/03/24 – 7.15 Newcastle:

Travelled off the pace and to the most part not well covered up. Appeared one-paced as the tempo picked up from 3f out. Although not quite the clearest of runs, had to switch and was tenderly handled after he found second wind from over 1f out for a brief moment.

Good return run from a wind operation. The run should put him spot on and give the horse confidence in his breathing, given how well he finished.

He’ll be down to a fair mark, especially if he drops back into 0-55. Ran a huge race off 56 in November and achieved solid speed ratings the two times prior when he went back to back wins.

Lilkian
22/03/24 – 3.45 Lingfield:

Stormed forward from wider than ideal draw. Did a lot in the early part and caught wide when locked in a battle for the lead. All the way going head to head in front and did well to stay up there for a long time.

Clearly hitting some form again, and additional help from handicapper can be expected. Loves it at Lingfield and Kempton over 6f.

Astral Beau
23/03/24 Doncaster – 1.20 Doncaster:

Led near side group. Quite keen in the first few furlongs. Did well to stay in front for as long as she did, always in the wind, whereas the winner was always nicely covered up. Ran home for solid second.

Had not often her preferred deep ground last year, but clearly best in proper soft conditions. Stays a mile, but perhaps a stiff 7f on deep ground is ideal.

Yet to run a really impressive speed rating given her Official Rating, but then she didn’t have too many opportunities in the right conditions. Hence one to keep an eye out, she should be capable to do so.

Grey’s Monument
23/03/24 Doncaster – 1.20 Doncaster:

Went left and bumped rival at the start. Quickly established a lead on the far side, made more than any other rival in the first two furlongs and had his head always right in the wind. Came under pressure 3f out and was a long way beaten, though did well to run home for 3rd.

Won Listed race when last seen in 2023. Gelded in the meantime. Two 90+ speed ratings achieved last season suggest he’s a proper horse and may be able to with some natural improvement for age see him develop into Group class.

Intriguing that blinkers were left off. Improvement came with it ever since first applied. If they are refitted, over a mile (also goes well over 7f) with some juice in the ground (best form good to soft), he’s one to back.

Harswell Duke + Lion Tower
23/03/24 – 2.25 Doncaster:

The two pace setter in the Spring Mile faded quite badly from two furlongs out but they were all the way through in the wind, especially Harswell Duke had to take most of it.

He won this race last year and has been in poor form ever since, although his September run at Southwell showed there is still something there. He’s not up to this level, but dropped to 72 now, he can race off a seriously nice mark wherever he goes next over a mile on proper soft ground.

Lion Tower has also fallen a long way in the mark. The handicapper has been a little less lenient, perhaps because he ran so well on his return at Newcastle back in February.

He’s got no chance to get home over a mile on soft ground. He’s not been expected in the betting in a while, too. Hence that February run is noteworthy. If he can find some decent ground, perhaps ideally over 7 furlongs, he’ll be dangerous soon.

One Night Thunder
23/03/24 – 3.35 Doncaster:

Quickly moved forward to lead the near side running right into the wind. Travelled quick well to 3f out when he kicked on and was in the mix until fading slowly from 2f out. Strong run in the circumstances.

Probably not quite good enough for this grade or his current mark, but will get help from handicapper, can move into lower grades and remains an intriguing type with low mileage and only 4 handicaps under his belt. Was an expensive ÂŁ300k yearling.

Hasn’t fulfilled the promise yet but ran well as 3yo a couple of times suggesting he can win despite not having shown it on the clock yet. He had too few opportunities to properly shine. The dam did well as a 4-year old too. He may not mind a drop to 7f in soft conditions.

Parisiac
24/04/23 – 3.05 Doncaster:

Awkward start, cost early momentum but he quickly got into stride and marched forward to set fast pace locked in a pace battle. Did well to run well enough for long and showed nice attitude deep into the final furlong.

Was outclassed here. 5f with juice in the ground or 6f on practically any ground can work. Probably a flatter track for the 6f, something stiffer will see him to best effect over the minimum trip.

A consistent front-runner in the right grade. Ran 75 and 71 speed ratings last year and worth to wait for drop to class 5. Any help from the handicapper is a bonus.

The other early pace in this race, Blind Beggar is also one to note if he drops in class and mark in the next weeks.

Stressfree
24/04/24 – 3.40 Doncaster:

Travelled off the pace seriously well, going strongly approaching two furlongs out but had too much to do behind a winner who was seriously well handicapped and enjoyed the run of the race. Only over 2f out asked for full effort and the pace wasn’t overly hot.

Warrants an upgrade as he travelled and finished like a well-handicapped horse, and handicapper can’t be too harsh for a 1.5l defeat. Can be ridden further forward too.

Smart Family. Dam’s 5/9 offspring are stakes placed. Probably won’t enjoy fast ground. Best performance in this family with juice in the ground.

Birkenhead
25/04/24 – 7.30 Newcastle:

Set a decent gallop having to come somewhat across from the #2 draw. Kicked on and stayed inf nearly to the end. Only 1/4l beaten in the end. Super run. Clearly back in form.

Remains to be seen what the handicapper does. I’d be most interested see him on turf if he can find a dry day with fast ground, as unlikely that seems for the moment, worth to wait for.

A similar lowly race on the sand where the pace scenario is advantageous isn’t out of question, ideally not Newcastle.

Mums Tipple
27/04/24 – 7.00 Kempton:

Travelled in rear and not advantaged by that due to a slow pace. Eyecatching progress from over 3f out as he finished the final three furlongs fastest as well.

Strong run given the winner was much better positioned. Pulled hard in a slowly run race over 7f prior and was seriously unfortunate when held up from the widest draw and not getting in clear run while hard held.

He’s not done much on speed ratings for a while but I’d be intrigued to see him over 6 or 7f in a Listed event especially. He must be in serious form and should revert to more prominent tactics too.

Super Hit
28/03/24 – 7.30 Southwell:

Quickly forward, keen as he tracked the eventual leader. Was going alright and kicked on in the home straight. Hung badly 2f out but stuck gamely to the task and only beaten with half a furlong out.

Ran strong 69 speed rating but unlikely handicapper can be harsh for this run. Clearly has capabilities to be better than 71, nicely bred and improvement should come for stepping up to a mile, although 7f fine too, for now.

He needs to settle better and hopefully with experience this lightly raced colt can learn.

Berry Clever
28/03/24 – 7.30 Southwell:

Hampered soon after the start and couldn’t move closer to the pace as a result. Travelled well into the straight and made initially strong progress against the dreaded inside rail.

Tired from 1.5f out. Somewhat ‘unlucky’ in a couple of his runs as a juvenile. Should be capable of winning a race off his current mark. Interesting if he moves up to a mile as his breeding suggest more’s to come then. Ideally he could drop slightly in class to 0-65.

Digital
28/03/24 – 8.00 Southwell:

Moved keenly forward from the widest draw. Set a good pace that contributed to some good speed figures achieved in the race. Showed good attitude before getting really tired.

First run after a break and for a new yard. Ran to 71 and 70 speed ratings last season. Best over 5f. Good record on AW but also acts on turf and good record in the summer months.

Should get more help from handicapper and if he can drop into 0-75 with not much pace to compete could be too classy.

Eight Army + Old Chums
29/03/24 – 2.50 Chelmsford:

Widest draw and awkward away. Soon recovered and rushed forward. Lead as part of duo setting a seemingly rapid pace. Wasn’t able to keep it up. Seasonal reappearance.

Probably strong form, quite competitive race for this class. Ran well in hot races as a juvenile last autumn. Those races worked out rather well in the meantime.

Should be able to step up in trip and improve given his pedigree. Handicapper may drop him sufficiently and if he moves up into an easier race he’ll be of real interest.

Fellow pace setter Old Chums also stormed forward and it was impressive that he was able to keep going to finish second behind a well-handicapped winner.

He’s got experience and may reach his peak soon, but I feel there’s another win in him off his current mark in this grade over 6f but also may be able to stretch out to 7f. The dam won a Listed race over a mile and was highly prolific on both turf and the sand.

Magical Vision
30/03/24 – 4.40 Cork:

Travelled keenly in midfield early on, going well but stuck in a pocket behind the leaders and only inside the furlong got out. Looked bit awkward too but finished well.

Probably quite strong form. She was well backed too. Still low mileage. Ran some good ratings last year. A stiff finish brings out the best in her especially on soft ground.

Yosemite Valley
30/03/24 – 3.30 Cork:

Travelled quite well but was a bit in a pocket 1.5f out that meant at the most crucial stage he had to ever so slightly delay his run and get galvanized again for full effort. He finished strongly on his seasonal reappearance.

Career-best on speed ratings. Had some assignments last year but shaped with plenty of promise. Hang the race away on his final outing over 7f but he should be able to get home over that trip. Interesting on better ground too and should be able to win a Listed race.

Cavalier Approach
31/03/24 – 5.35 Southwell:

Part of the early pace before setting in third tracking closely. The pace was red hot and he was inevitably to fade but made strong headway from 3f out.

Excellent reappearance. Strong run when last seen at Newmarket, better than bare result. And excellent Hamilton win before. Maybe doesn’t like it quite heavy if he returns to turf. Loves stiff finishes.

If he could get some additional help from the handicapper he’ll be interesting in 0-70. Yet to fully convince on speed ratings but ran an 80 RPR at Hamilton. Usually quite consistent and up with the pace.

Betting

Friday Selections: 29th March 2024

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It’s already a few days ago, but hey, you’ve got to celebrate the winners. It was the first one I could cheer home in a while – granted I had about a handful of bets in the last half year.

Anyway, it was great to see Qitaal win rather comfortably in the end, despite a dramatic drift to 14/1 SP. I was stuck with my 7’s, but that’s no issue at all. Even that represented significant value in my book.

……..

2.40 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

Cephalus looks a seriously poor favourite in this race at such a short price (2/1 at time of writing). He’ll be held up from the #10 draw in a race without much pace and he’s got a bit to find on speed ratings as he’s turned out under a penalty.

The 5-year old improved dramatically over the last weeks and months, winning four and going close twice. This is a different proposition, though, especially off 81 in a race that won’t be run to suit him.

The way the race is likely going to shape, and with his love for the track, Shoot To Kill looks one who may steel this one from the front for Ireland and represents serious value in my mind.

He moved over to Ado McGuinness in early March and ran with plenty of courage in two subsequent starts, both times catching the eye and clearly proving there’s plenty of life in the seven-year-old gelding.

Those were hard races and that’s a bit of a concern. But at the same they may have put him right for this race. He was highly competitive and consistent prior moving to Ireland as well.

Shoot To Kill certainly loves it here at Lingfield. Check out his course record, peel back the first layer and you’ll find a lad who’s ran some huge performances from 7-10 furlongs at this venue not too long ago.

No doubt, his optimum is a mile over this course and distance, though. He won a class 5 Handicap over this CD back in September off 74, running to a 75 speed rating which he franked weeks later over 7 furlongs at the same venue when finishing a strong third.

That mile win looks better than bare form would suggest, given it was only a class 5. His current mark – 78 – with a 3lb claimer in the saddle, gives him a shout over this course and distance, though.

He won a class 3 Handicaps in the past here, and ran his three career-best speed ratings at Lingfield, the two highest over a mile. Taking into account that he looks to hit some good form, it’s not impossible to think he’s able to run to that sort of level again.

But maybe he doesn’t even have to be that good on Friday. The pace should favour those who are ridden forward and it’s unlikely to be overly hot.

Given that, Shoot To Kill should be easily able to overcome the #7 draw and should find himself in prime position as he slings around the final bend.

Shoot To Kill 10pts win – @ 13/1

……..

3.35 Newcastle: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

Not out of question that Cover Up, who’s bidding for a four-timer, can pull out more, even after a hefty 13lb hike for his most recent win at this venue, albeit over the minimum trip.

Though, moving up in trip is a question mark. The dam stayed a mile but her sole victory came over 5 furlongs. He ran a super 90 speed rating last time out. On balance, given he could get a nice lead into the finish as well given his draw and the likely pace, he’s a fair favourite – one that’s beatable, at the same time.

Batal Dubai looks well places from his #9 draw and given there isn’t too much pace competition, could enjoy the run of the race. He’s fairly handicapped, although hardly has much in hand. He always struggled so far to win once he hit the 90s.

Albasheer’s last two winning performances here at Newcastle were brilliant on speed ratings: 102 and 100 – that’s a Group horse. A 110 mark in this type of competitive handicap is also quite a steep task.

He looks well drawn and looks slightly overpriced. I have some question marks because that last huge effort only came a fortnight ago.

The one I feel who’s potentially quite well-handicapped in the context of this race is 7-year-old gelding Misty Grey.

The #5 draw gives him enough options to get a good, prominent position early on, tracking the pace, wherever it develops, given he has a bit of early speed as well.

He clearly showed a return to form in two runs earlier this month after he moved to the David O’Meara yard. The second of those runs came on the 9th of March, hence that hopefully is enough time to recover.

I felt both runs were eyecatching and warranted a slight upgrade, as much as they also suggested a mark off 96 might underestimate him at this point in his career.

At Wolverhampton in a 7f Listed race last time out Misty Grey had to give weight away to higher rated horses and it wasn’t ideal to concede first run to the eventual winner at 2f out, at the most crucial part of that race.

Days earlier at Newcastle, again over 7f, he pulled hard early on and basically tanked his way to the front. He travelled sweetly for a long time before coming under pressure and possibly also got ever so slightly impacted by a faller around the final furlong marker.

Both runs suggested he could do with a drop to stiff 6f…. hello Newcastle I hear you calling? This is his third run since a break and since moving to the David O’Meara yard and he should be primed what will only bis his second run over 6f in over a year – the last time he finished an excellent third in a hot Kempton Conditions race.

The grey gelding wasn’t rated so lowly in over three years, and as explained before, there is solid evidence based on the last two runs, that he’s hitting some strong form. At given prices he seems quite a bit overpriced.

Misty Grey – 10pts win @ 16/1

……..

4.40 Newcastle: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

It’s difficult not to like how Dear My Friend won his last three races since his return as a gelding and from wind operation. A changed horse, so to speak.

Four from four on the All-Weather now, and there s every chance he’s got still much more to offer. For all that he has to prove his lofty rating on speed ratings yet.

He may not have to do so here, as the pace falls right into his lap, if he wants it. He’s also a pretty fair price, at 7/2 currently, very much one I’d consider to back.

However, from a value perspective I just can’t look past Tempus. He’s not getting any younger and was beaten by My Dear Friend back in January. However the race and certainly pace scenario will play out differently this time, and so is the weights difference between the two.

Tempus is also drawn close to My Dear Friend, and may well track him all the way from his #2 draw. Usually also forward, he should equally enjoy the run of the race.

The handicapper has given him an opportunity as well. Dropped him to 102, despite three notable performances this year. He’s not been that low since winning a competitive Ascot Handicap in July 2022.

There is no question that Tempus remains in strong form, though, because he ran a joint career-best (and best on AW) speed rating at Kempton in January on his comeback run. He missed the break that day but finished very strongly as he kicked on nicely from 3f out in a good listed contest.

He fared best from those up with the pace subsequently at Newcastle when he was beaten by My Dear Friend eventually. Another strong performance. And was then a bit too keen when locked in a pace battle in a Listed race at Cagnes last month, where he was still ahead with only 1.5f to go, though.

I feel from a handicapping perspective and pace scenario Tempus got a significant chance to outrun his big price tag here.

10pts win – Tempus @ 23/1

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers 2024 #1

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Flat Eyecatchers is a list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on turf and sand. Find all previous eyecatchers always here.

Flowering
04/03/24 – 6.00 Wolverhampton:

Tracked pace the setter early on, took him on in an uneconomical battle in the middle of the race. Tried to kick from 4f out but was already tired and eventually faded in the home straight.

Showed promise in two Handicaps prior. The form of all three runs this year appears solid and suggests she could be a bit better than the current mark, perhaps more so over 10 furlongs, given the twelve furlongs possibly stretch her stamina.

She’s lightly enough raced to believe there’s some improvement and races to be won in these lower grades.

Doctor Mozart
04/03/24 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

In a pace battle throughout and doing too much too soon. First three home all came from further back. Showed good attitude keeping on.

Confirmed impression from 19/02 where he didn’t get the ideal trip. Badly hampered next time out in a hot race when up with strong pace once again. Down 1lb below last winning mark now. Seriously interesting in a race where the pace is a little bit less hot than encountered lately.

Kessaar Power
05/03/25 – 6.30 Southwell:

Reared in stalls, then pushed forward quickly to lead and setting a taxing gallop. Never stood a chance to get home over this trip but kept on well for 3rd. Decent speed rating over an inadequate trip.

Saying that 7f on the sand could suit on a different day, though. Down to good mark but may drop a bit further before competitive. This run a clear sign of wellbeing, though.

Watermelon Sugar
06/03 – 5.30 Kempton:

Held up from widest draw, travelling widest of all giving ground away while setting fastest sectionals from five to three furlongs out. Dropped badly away in the closing stages.

Showed enough enthusiasm to suggest he could get back to form at some point after a long break. Interesting for this yard/owners. No surprise to see a vastly improved horse in a couple of runs. The betting will provide clues.

Ran to 65 and 64 speed ratings in the past. Further help from the handicapper and an easier race on the AW will enhance his chances.

Bora Bora
06/03/24 – 6.00 Kempton:

Bit awkward away from the gate, tracked the pace rather keenly after the first furlong. Travelled well enough into the home straight but lacked the gears. Still finished with good attitude in hot contest.

Ran 68 speed rating, matching a surprise eye-catching 3rd place at big odds and 69 speed rating at Chelmsford before. On a good mark and may soon find an easier race over 6f but possibly is better suited to 7-8f as past form indicates. Clearly in form and well-handicapped.

Maybe one for early turf races too. Had limited opportunities there but yard in these colours when owned by Butler tends to do much better on turf too.

Chico Dulce
06/03/24 – 7.00 Kempton:

Made most of low draw to find a perfect spot on the rails, tracking the pace. Good progress between horses when slightly angled out over 2f out, before not able to match the pace of the first three. Ran good 53 speed rating in a hot race.

Will be able to drop into easier race now. Still low mileage and could be ahead of his mark over this sort of trip if dropped to 0-55. Noteworthy run lto too. Notably the change of tactics here too.

Walking In The Clouds
07/03/24 – 2.45 Lingfield:

Widest draw, moved forward and travelled always keen on the outside of the pack. Attempted to make an effort around the home bend but unsurprisingly tired badly.

Will come down to a good mark now. Ran to competitive speed ratings on the All-Weather last year. Best over 6f at Southwell, so one to keep an eye on for that.

Dream Together
07/03/24 – 8.00 Newcastle:

Grabbed the lead to set a somewhat muddling pace. Nonetheless showed an improved attitude and ability to quicken. Did well to stay in the mix for as long as he did.

This was a significant drop in class but also only 2nd run off a long break. Improved performance and he looks ready soon if back on turf. Although, needs fast ground.

Dandys Derriere
08/03/24 – 5.30 Newcastle:

Tracked pace racing more toward the far side. Off the bridle 2f out but kept going nicely without being completely hammered in the final furlong when it became clear a gallant 3rd was the best possible result.

Big run, matched handicap mark on speed ratings. Looks improved lately since wind op and break with four good runs under his belt.

Overall record wouldn’t suggest there’s more to come but this was a seriously deep race. If he finds a slightly easier race, quality wise or drop to 0-68, he could be good enough with a favoured pace scenario to win. Deserves a chance and could be underestimated.

Secret Road
08/03/24 – 5.30 Newcastle:

Dwelt, squeezed out soon after. Not in the best position 2f out. Switched and finished much the strongest in the final furlong. Achieved strong 63 speed rating, in line with current rating.

Down another pound since then, now on his last winning mark. Won in better class this winter over the CD. Looks ready for a big run and usually much closer ridden to the pace as well.

Novak
08/03/24 – 6.00 Newcastle:

Slowly away, in rear having plenty to do over 2f out before urged to move and responded seriously well in the last two furlongs without an overly hard ride.

Clearly returning back to form and on an intriguing mark. Struggles to win on the sand but the green lush grass isn’t far away and should be then in a position to be seriously competitive over 6-7f.

Hence, it’s best to ignore his subsequent start over 7f at Newcastle off 68 when last of ten after dwelling once again.

Not Forgotten
08/03/24 – 7.15 Dundalk:

Missed the break ever so slightly. Made up ground on the inside rapidly, though, but perhaps this early mishap cost him in a tight finish where he couldn’t quite find the kick needed to win in the final furlong.

He travelled smoothly into entering the home straight and this was a competitive heat. Still low mileage enough to believe he could find some improvement. Handicapper has left him untouched.

Same level of form will see him go close in these races in any case. Won quite taking this winter over course and distance as well.

Eccentric
09/03/24 – 6.40 Wolverhampton:

Soon led and set strong gallop. Clear by a couple of lengths. Was reeled in by stalker but fought gamely all the way to the line. Superb run and achieved a whopping 72 speed rating.

Clearly ahead of his mark as run 57 twice before. A mile seems the limit. Still a maiden but seems to finally get the hang of the game. May be too obvious and a short price next time.

Rock Opera
10/03/24 – 4.50 Southwell:

Widest draw, dropped in trailing in last place. Plenty do over 3f out but made superb progress from 4f out all the way to the final furlong, backed up visually any by sectionals, before stamina ran out.

Highly competitive race, over a trip likely too far. A drop to 6f will see him competitive. Any additional help from the handicapper that allows a slight ease in race class will be of benefit. Ran well all winter, including lto in strong 0-85. Won twice in easier races over 6f.

Not quite convinced on speed ratings yet but suspicion is in right conditions he can deliver.

Gobi Sunset
12/03/24 – 8.30 Southwell:

Widest draw, quickly moved forward and grabbed the lead, although always closely followed. Did a lot in the first half of the race and performance warrants upgrade staying in the mix for so long.

Winner was in superb form, which gives the form credibility. Down to last winning mark. Clearly in strong form.

Can go well on All-Weather right now but would be even more intriguing back on turf soon, on decent ground.

First three horses
13/03/24 – 5.20 Kempton:

Seriously interesting Novice Stakes. Strong speed ratings produced and first three home could turn out to be smart prospects to follow for the season, potentially.

The winner British Camp was green on his debut. Missed the break and was early enough off the bridle entering the home straight.

Three light backhanders, finished off nicely under light enough ride to win it on the line, with seemingly much more left in the tank.

Ran five furlongs of the final mile the fastest sectionals, including the final two furlongs, dipping easily under 12s. Very well bred, related to smart individuals. Should be capable of getting 1m 4f but a fast 10 furlongs should also suit.

Runner-up Imperial Sovereign wasn’t smartly away from the gates either, but soon tracked the pace and travelled much the best, on the bridle until 2f out.

All out to the line, he wasn’t good enough to beat the winner, but showed a likeable attitude putting his head down and answering ever call. Won well on debut last year and is a son of smart Imperial Charm. 10 furlongs may be his ideal trip.

Third placed Tribal Star started well, better than in his two prior career runs. Made all and kicked nicely from 3f out. He was beaten by better horses but could be potentially underestimated wherever he goes next.

Impressed on debut last year with a fine 79 speed rating runner-up performance despite missing the break. Followed up with another solid run before the end of the year and showed a nice attitude in this race.

A mark in the mid-80’s could be underestimate him, especially if he steps up further in trip, judged on pedigree.

Jungle Charm
14/03/23 – 6.15 Southwell:

Widest draw, rapidly moved forward to just grab the lead entering the home turn. The damage was done at that point, but did well to stay in the action for a long time.

Should be solid form. Could unlock improvement for experience. Also not impossible to step up to 7f. A slightly less competitive race should see her really well placed to win another race.

Fine Wine
15/03/24 – 6.20 Newcastle:

Off to a flying start, set a seriously fast pace early on. Noteworthy how long he stayed in front. Highly competitive race as well. Must have regained some good form, second off a break.

Should drop further in the weights, and interesting if he returns at Southwell over the minimum trip, ideally in an easier race. Not won in a while but over that CD always dangerous.

Betting

Friday Selections: 3rd November 2023

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5.15 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Newyorkstateofmind drops down to the minimum trip today, at Newcastle, off a fair mark – this looks like an ideal test with a solid pace expected, to help him settle and finish strongly.

The 6-year-old gelding is fully exposed, however, has ran only once over this course and distance, earlier this year, and finished a strong third off 3lb higher in a race that wasn’t run at a rapid clip.

His last two runs over 6 furlongs were highly encouraging, though, and he seems to hit strong form. Todays race is competitive but on speed ratings he’s the one I have come out on top, if he runs to form.

Especially after two eye-catching efforts in the last two weeks over 6 furlongs.

At Lingfield, when last seen, he couldn’t quite get to the pace early on and settled near midfield, though he also showed signs of keenness. A good pace and shorter trip should suit today, hence.

He then made strong progress from 3f out and made a gigantic effort toward the dreaded inside rail at Lingfield to even contest the lead over 1f out, before inevitably getting tired.

He was well-fancied that day, perhaps also related to the huge effort prior to it, at Wolverhampton. With that in mind, there is a danger that he can’t run to the same level a third time in this short pace of time.

But I feel the pace, the trip and the stiff finish will suit him really well, being also drawn in and around the pace, he can then track, and granted a clear run, should be able to finish strongly.

10pts win – Newyorkstateofmind @ 7/1

Eyecatchers

All-Weather Eyecatchers #1

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Winter is coming. With that in mind I’m starting a new list of All-Weather eyecatchers for this new winter season.

All-Weather Eyecatchers is a fortnightly updated list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the sand. Find all previous eyecatchers always here.

……..

Jimmy Mark
05/10/23 – 5.15 Lingfield:

Held up in last until he made excellent progress from 4f out. Turned very wide and plenty to do. Not the clearest of runs in the home straight, yet finished much the best.


Clearly still improving after cosy Bath success lto. Outstayed his pedigree so far. Racing style not ideal for AW but a smaller field not contested at a rapid clip over 10f should be fine as he possesses cruising speed and a change of gear likely superior for this grade.

Would be intriguing if he drops in trip as well to a mile as he possesses the speed.

Race Replay

Streetstorm
05/10/23 – 5.15 Lingfield:

Bit keen in the early parts of the race. Restrained in midfield. Travelled strongly to the 2f marker and made strong move around the home bend. Maybe didn’t quite get home in the final furlong.

Still a maiden, however, ran to 60 speed rating over 1m on the AW earlier the year. A drop to a mile or the 8.5f at Wolverhampton could bring out more improvement off a potentially lenient mark. Recent turf run can be ignored.

Race Replay

After John
06/10/23 – 4.02 Newcastle:

Travelled strongly in rear. Made excellent progress on sectionals and visually from 4f out all the way to inside 2f from home. Had a lot to do, though. Ran out off steam eventually.

Clear return to form. Down to dangerous mark. 6f Newcastle obviously interesting next time, as long as there is a solid pace to chance. Otherwise may be worth wait for additional help from the handicapper.

Race Replay

Astral Beat
06/10/23 – 5.00 Dundalk:

Ducked left at the start, quickly recovered and moved forward. Soon grabbed the lead and was quick through the first three furlongs going well before falling away from 1.5f out.

Usually a quick starter. Big prices ever since moving to Ireland. Slowly comes down to intriguing mark. Ran to 55+ speed ratings three times last year on the All-Weather. May have a few more runs before fully in the picture for win purposes. Watch the betting.

Race Replay

Sao Timothy
07/10/23 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

Keen early on, hampered soon after the start and even further lit up as a consequence. Made strong progress from 3f out to be in a challenging position over 1f out. Couldn’t sustain effort but showed good attitude all the way to the line.

Big price, and only second start in handicap company. Should stay the trip on pedigree but may benefit from a drop to a mile or 8.5f. Unexposed, and could be better than this lowly mark.

Race Replay

The Defiant
09/10/23 – 7.30 Wolverhampton:

Quick start from widest draw. Chased leader, before taking up the lead entering the home straight. Awkward over 1f out before getting tired and swamped. Strong run at big price.

Seems to hit form again and 1lb below last winning mark. Has turf entry next but worth to wait for 5f AW, especially with any additional help from the handicapper and in a race he could dominate.

Race Replay

Guiteau
09/10/23 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

Solid start, travelled well enough throughout. However, held up around the home bend as trapped on the inside when the crucial moves where made in front of him. Made strong progress once in the clear and still finished best over the last three furlongs.

Only 3rd AW run. Scope for improvement. Should be able to step up to a mile as well. Clearly capable off 58 and possibly a win or two better, as he also ran to 57 speed rating here in less than ideal circumstances.

Race Replay

Taritino
11/10/23 – 7.00 Kempton:

Quickly moved forward on the outside of the early leaders. Grabbed the lead and fastest through four of first five furlongs, keen as well in first-time blinkers.

No surprise to see him tire badly. 7f looks ideal. Showed some good form over the trip in the past. Unexposed on the All-Weather. Down to intriguing mark when trip and headgear are more suitable.

Race Replay

Nogo’s Dream
11/10/23 – 8.00 Kempton:

Good start, but lit up my moving horse in front of him just before the bend that saw him fall back into tendencies to hang badly. Gave a lot of ground away and needed time to find his feed. Ran home strongly from 2f out, fasted through the final furlong.

Huge ran prior at Wolverhampton from the front as well from wide draw. Obviously a frustrating sort. Not genuine. But also clearly better than OR 74 if he can get his act together. Ideally has an inside draw to get cover on the sides.

Drop to 5f also interesting on a straight, perhaps even with application of headgear once more.

Race Replay

Garrick Painter
13/010/23 – 5.45 Dundalk:

Not the sharpest away and pushed forward, but soon pulled through on the inside to grab the led thanks to the low draw. In front until 2f before getting badly tired. First run for new yard off a small break.

Still lightly enough raced. Ran to 72 and 79 speed ratings last year. Will come down to intriguing mark over 7f or maybe even more so a mile especially when he gets a good draw once again.

Race Replay

Betting

Saturday Selections: 1st July 2023

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June is over: 29pts profit. I guess, the way it went that counts as a major success. Quite how that is possible to turn a profit in a month with runs of 31 and 16 conseqeuitive losing bets is remarkable as it’s not sustainable.

Some big prices saved the day. Whether the rest was just unfortunate or more to it, I’ll need to dig deeper. What is certain: I had too many bets. The overwhelming amount of racing doesn’t help.

……..

8.15 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Nibras Rainbow seems difficult to catch as he couldn’t follow on from an eyecatching run at track when last seen at Wetherby.

I felt he had excuses that day, though. Heavily bumped soon after the start, he lost his balance, was lit up, and used up energy to get moving forward. He was early beaten enough, nonetheless.

I have to go back to his penultimate effort over the extended seven furlongs here at Lingfield four weeks ago. A strong run and excellent form:

He dwelt from a wide draw, rushed forward on outside before crossing over to lead the field. Was then still going well two furlongs from before before heavily challenged. He was seriously gutsy to stay in front for as long as he did.

Nibras Rainbow ran a career-best speed rating that day, in line with his current mark. Can he repeat the effort today, and may find a bit more? A decent start, from the #6 draw, could ensure that.

This is a wide open contest in my view. The favourite may improve again, but has to for the return to turf. He’s yet to impress on speed ratings, so worth taking on.

Nibras Rainbow is drifting in the betting this morning. But I feel he’s moving out to a huge price, if here to run on merit.

10pts win – Nibras Rainbow @ 7/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 24th June 2023

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2-2-3-3-4-5-14. That’s how my selections finished. What a disaster of a day Friday was.

Although, Remarquee came rather close to winning at 33s, but ultimately, I don’t think the slight interference made a significant difference, being totally honest.

To make matters worse, Coppice won the Sandringham (one of my horses to follow but didn’t back here) and Alseeyerthere won the Redcar race – a huge eyecatcher last time out, but I decided to go with ungenuine Fiftyshadesofred at a poor price.

The margins of error are small in this game. Sometimes it’s down to luck, sometimes down to poor decision making. Poor decisions eats profit, though. Always.

….

3.05 Ascot: Group 3 Jersey Stakes, 7f

Enfajaar is one of my horses to follow this season and he showed nothing but an abundance of talent on his seasonal reappearance at Chelmsford last month.

He was a little bit keen early on, but then travelled strongly and kicked clear in the most impressive fashion in the final furlong.

The drop in trip is a slight question mark, because he may also stay a bit further than a mile. But this lad isn’t short of speed, at all. He can accelerate rapidly.

The stiff 7 furlongs at Ascot, with a good pace to chase, having likely front-running Covey drawn close by, could be a perfect scenario.

One only has to watch back his impressive debut performance at Newmarket last year over 7 furlongs, where he accelerated in impressive style from 3 furlongs out and stayed strongly to the line.

There is no doubt he’s pattern class, I believe. The only serious question mark I have is the fast ground. His two wins came on good to soft and on the All-Weather, he seems to hit the ground hard as well. If he acts on this surface, he should be the one to beat.

10pts win – Enfajaar @ 8/1

……

5.00 Ascot: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

Khanjar can run off his old 97 mark here before it goes up soon. He is a somewhat tricky sort and new headgear must make a difference to help him with sharpness.

However, if that does help, he’s one who could be underestimated here, still. He looks to have a huge engine and the potential to improve again.

His form can be a bit hit and miss and difficult to read. He ran better at York on his seasonal debut than the bare result. And even better next time at Hamilton.

There he was slowly away and right away at a disadvantage, multiplied by his draw and racing wide, hence away from the usually more favoured stands’ side.

He made great progress but ultimately had too much to do. Nonetheless, he ran four (+ equal in one) of six furlongs faster than the eventual winner, and was arguably unlucky.

I think it’s fair to say he has been a bit unfortunate in some of the bigger Handicaps he contest to date. Clearly there’s untapped potential. Whether it can be ever realised remains to be seen.

In any case he’s a strong, galloping sort who stays well over 6 furlongs and he should relish the stiff finish here at Ascot. The pace map looks somewhat puzzling, so there is a chance he’s not in the right spot.

10pts win – Khanjar @ 10/1

……….

……

3.52 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Vecchio could be overpriced if he can cope with the drop in trip and potentially muddling pace on faster ground.

However, he looked last time out as if a drop in trip would suit, showed solid early speed over 6 furlongs as a juvenile and ran solid on better ground as well.

I liked his comeback run off a break and gelding operation last time at Goodwood quite a lot, where he tried a mile:

He tracked the pace early on, was pretty keen through the first half of the race, though. Didn’t enjoy the clearest of run in the home straight and had to delay his full effort multiple times, also hung toward the far rail.

I hope from the #1 draw he’ll be on the right side of the track, can bounce out of the gate, grab that rail and just makes it all to use his early speed and stamina to stay on strongly.

Off 77 he could be quite well-handicapped in this field.

10pts win – Vecchio @ 9/2

…..

4.14 Ayr: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Wide open and competitive. Where’s the pace to come from? Probably more toward the far rail and high numbers. That is a positive as it brings Huddle Up right into the equation.

He showed excellent form in all starts this year and looked like he could be a bit better than his current 73 rating in the right race.

He was found out for speed and/or class over the minimum trip the last to times, although ran on with plenty of zest.

A flattish, uncomplicated 6f on decent but not fast ground looks possibly ideal, and even more so as he drops down in class again. Even though this competitive, it’s easier than the last two races.

He also produced a huge effort on his seasonal reappearance at Thirsk, where he achieved a 72 speed rating as well. It’s fair to assume, now fully fit, track, trip and ground possibly to suit, he can improve back to the level he showed in Ireland before.

10pts win – Huddle Up @ 13/2

……

5.13 Redcar: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Huge chance for Shine’s Ambition to win a race. This is a poor race, and his most recent effort at this track, albeit over an additional furlong, was huge.

The form looks good with the second having won well in the meantime. The drop to 6 furlongs seems sure to suit and he looks to have the ideal draw to grab that far rail.

Last time over 7 furlongs he enjoyed a quick start, led from the front as part of duo and travelled strongly approaching 2f out before he came under severe pressure. He was beaten by winner from off the pace.

Still a maiden, but he ran twice 62+ speed ratings in the past and now down to a 62 mark with the drop to 6f he’s really interesting off a career-lowest mark.

10pts win – Shine’s Ambition @ 11/2

…..

8.50 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

How far is Essme going to win this? I guess it depends how she got out of bed. The mare is hardly the most trustworthy horse to back.

In saying that, if she can run to the level of form shown last time over this course and distance she’s likely to win this. That was a strong performance, the runner-up won in the meantime, and this time she has a better draw.

Three weeks ago she tracked the pace on the far side, was quite prominently ridden. She travelled well to 2f out but couldn’t quite keep up the effort in the closing stages.

She did best of those low drawn, which is often a disadvantage over this CD, and also represented a career-best on speed ratings, as low as that is. 7f on fast ground is ideal, which she finds here.

10pts win – Essme @ 11/2

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers 2023: #5

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous eyecatchers here.

Spartan Arrow
05/06/23 – 5.15 Windsor:

Touched rival soon after the start, lit up as a consequence and seriously keen for most of the race. Was still going strongly on the bridle over 2f out but got stuck behind a wall of horses. Delayed effort, switched to the inside eventually and ran on strongly, although appeared awkward still.

Clearly talented and better than current mark. Was heavily bumped lto at York too, when seemingly coming with a challenge. Tricky sort who will need a pace to chase.

Race Replay

Captain Vallo
05/06/23 – 4.00 Thirsk:

Widest draw away from favourable stands’ side. Travelled strongly prominently in his group, excellent progress before getting tired in the last half furlong.

Superb comeback run. Not tremendously well-handicapped. But 6f on decent to fast ground in an easier race could be interesting, or else worth to wait for a drop by a couple of pounds.

Race Replay

Harry The Haggler
06/06/23 – 5.30 Lingfield:

Wide draw, had to settle off the pace. Travelled well, good progress over 2f out but had a lot to do. Finished much the best.

Winner in the making, if the handicapper doesn’t react harshly. Excuse Windsor on heavy going. Strong form prior at Lingfield behind well-handicapped winner.

Lightly raced and could still offer more going up in trip as well to try a mile.

Race Replay

Ignac Lamar
06/06/23 – 5.05 Leicester:

Quickly forward, led as part of duo on far side. Gutsy and only went down fighting late. Seriously strong form on speed ratings and form of winner and second.

Possibly better on AW. Down to latest AW winning mark currently and of interest if turned out soon on sand, though also turf not out of it, ideally 6f, may not totally get 7f. Didn’t have many realistic opportunities over 6f on turf.

Race Replay

Lola’s Moment
06/06/23 – 5.45 Wetherby:

Slightly sluggish away but quickly found her stride and moved forward to track a hard pace. Eventually led from 2f out until approaching the final furlong. Briefly accepted challenge before she ran out of gas for good.

Comeback after a break since September 2022. Looks potentially exposed but may be capable o progressing as a 3yo. Sprint trips look hers.

She’s a full-sister to recent 5.5f winner Alfred Cove (OR57). She should drop further in her mark and may be underestimated over fast five with a good draw.

Race Replay

Ricksen
06/06/23 – 8.30 Wetherby:

Led, though pestered. Travelled full of enthusiasm. Challenged from over 2f out on both sides but kept going strongly and came back for more in the final furlong.

Winner and second were probably well-handicapped, therefore the form has some substance.

7f may be ideal as he can be keen. Could be well able to win one of these low grade races in a race with little pace competition. On a fair mark.

Race Replay

Marksman Queen
07/06/23 – 7.50 Kempton:

Sluggish start, travelled well off the pace. Held together until about 2f out. Strong response when asked for effort as she cam home much the best over the last two furlongs in particular.

The hood may took off some of her early excitement. She was keen prior, when winning twice on the All-Weather. She may have options to move up in trip, but a strongly run mile looks ideal for now.

Given her breeding it’s fair to assume she will improve for switching to turf on fast ground. Remains to be seen how much she has in hand, but intriguing in those conditions.

Race Replay

Beccara Rose
07/06/23 – 7.50 Kempton:

Bit slowly away, soon recovered to race about in midfield. Kicked on well over two furlongs out to finish second fast over the last three furlongs.

Looks possibly well-handicapped if she switches back to turf on decent ground. Didn’t seem to enjoy cut in the ground this year and doesn’t seem to have an overly pronounced knee action and her full-sister (highest OR 91) did all her winning on good to form.

Was a strong 4th behind Soul Sister on debut – in soft – last year, though. Should be capable to move up in trip, as well.

Race Replay

The Cruising Lord
07/06/23 – 3.45 Newbury:

Showed good early speed. Kicked well over 2f out. Got tired approaching the final furlong. Excellent return off a long break. Down to a sexy mark if still with appetite.

Not as good as in the past but should be able to improve from this run and looks capable of winning off current 70 OR.

Especially interesting down to 5f again. Best over minimum trip on fast ground, although also capable to act on softer. Probably want to see ideal conditions these days.

Ran really well over 6f nto at Salisbury for a long time in a good race.

Race Replay

Dynamite Katie
07/06/23 – 4.20 Newbury:

Set off at a rapid clip. She ran the first four furlongs faster than the preceding 6f Handicap and the first three furlongs faster than all the other sprint races on the same card, while racing over 7 furlongs herself. She never was likely to get home.

This was her handicap debut and first time on turf. She may have been outclassed here anyway. 7f is a stretch in Handicap company I reckon. A drop to 6f on decent ground could be interesting.

Race Replay

Le Brok Cafe
07/06/23 – 2.00 Newbury:

Rapid start, excellent early speed. Goin okay to 3f out before under pressure. Fell away quickly. Ran better than the price. Probably good form.

Only second career-run. Will be interesting once she qualified for a mark, perhaps mostly as she drops to the minimum trip as well.

Race Replay

Pearle D’or
08/06/23 – 6.40 Yarmouth:

Quickly established lead. Enjoyed the front, kicked on well from 2f out and broke the hearts of most, bar a strong winner who stayed on strongly from off the pace.

2nd start of new yard, changed hands for 40k. Showed some promise in Ireland and may have more to offer on decent ground. May not be out of question he stays 7f either.

Has ran at Hamilton in the meantime. And odd ride, which I’m prepared to forgive.

Race Replay

Lordsbridge Girl
08/06/23 – 8.40 Yarmouth:

Good start, tracked the early pace, ever so slightly disadvantaged by the shifting leader early on. Badly shot of room from over 2f out all the way to the final furlong practically, where she ran home strongly.

Huge run. In line with what she showed on the AW. A mile is absolute maximum. Probably best over 7f with pace but fast ground a mile not out of it. She’s still quite unexposed on turf.

Excellent nto run with strong speed rating. Made effort on the outside away from the rail which didn’t seem ideal on the day. Likely strong form.

Race Replay

Bell Song
08/06/23 – 8.50 Chelmsford:

Had the widest draw to overcome. Didn’t get in and was caught wide approaching the turn and had to move forward for a slightly improved position. Impressive how she was able to kick and stay well to the line despite all the trouble.

Handicap debut, looks capable to win off her mark, especially based on her seasonal reappearance at Southwell, which was seriously strong form. A strong pace over 7f should help. Unexposed on turf.

Ran an unfortunate race at Sandown in the meantime. Did well in the circumstances and better than that.

Race Replay

Khanjar
08/06/23 – 3.35 Hamilton:

Slowly away and right away at a disadvantage, multiplied by his draw ad racing wide away from the usually more favoured stands’ side. Made great progress but ultimately had too much to do. Ran 4 (+ equal in one) of 6 furlongs faster than the eventual winner.

Can’t be harshly assessed for this and remains of interest. Didn’t run quite a speed ratings in the 90s but looks capable. Bit unfortunate in some of the bigger Handicaps.

Ran better at York on his seasonal debut than bare result. Strong, galloping sort who stays well up a stiff finish.

Race Replay

Lady Lade
09/06/23 – 1.40 Thirsk:

Clear disadvantage being drawn low and away from the pace. After a solid start lost quickly a lot of ground, about 7 lengths behind the leader 3f out.

Made tremendous progress against the bias and finished much the best over the last 3f, although paid a bit of tribute in the closing stages to a strong mid-race splits.

Only won once in handicap company, off 68 last year, ran to 66 speed rating. becomes quite competitive now off a revised mark.

Race Replay

Mrs Trump
09/06/23 – 3.10 Thirsk:

Tough from the #1 draw, moved quickly toward the centre. Bit short of room when a gap closed and she had to delay her effort and be switched. Ran very well given the circumstances.

Clearly in strong form. Ran a huge race last time at Ripon and had excuses at Southwell, too. Still a maiden but dangerous once she gets a good draw.

Race Replay

Wedgewood
09/06/23 – 2.00 Brighton:

Badly bumped soon after the start, still moved rapidly forward and let first 2-3f at a fast pace. Gradually tired.

Ran better than bare performance lto too. Finished tired last two now, maybe needs a small break. Interesting afterwards. off possibly revised mark over 5f on turf still, may not stay 6f, also may be better on AW but could be capable on turf too.

Won seriously well when last seen on AW and ran a good race at Windsor in a really hot Handicap in the meantime.

Race Replay

Fragrence
10/06/23 – 6.55 Chepstow:

Blistering early speed, led by a couple of lengths. Gradually tired. Small field but very strong race with rivals in good form.

Ran to multiple speed ratings last season that suggest she is capable off her revised 60 mark. Dangerous in the easier race where she can lead on decent ground over 5f.

Race Replay

Raasel
10/06/23 – 1.15 Haydock:

Probably not quite advantaged by having to make his effort on the widest outside against the far rail after travelling well held up until over 2f out. Made huge progress thanks to fastest furlong two out, before getting understandably tired late.

Huge run, still run fastest the last 3f. Can be forgiven previous Haydock run due to severe draw bias and ran well on his seasonal reappearance. Could be underestimated next time.

Not disgraced in hot Group 1 at Royal Ascot in the meantime.

Race Replay

El Caballo
10/06/23 – 3.35 Haydock:

Slightly awkward start. Tracked the pace in third, was going well and waiting to make a challenge from three furlongs out. Couldn’t get a run on the inside, was several times short of room and hampered 1f out. Finished easy on the eye.

Excellent run and may have gone closer with clear run. Not sure he truly stays 7f at this level on turf, but chance given on fast ground. Probably better over 6f. Obviously superb on sand, but may be underestimated on turf.

Race Replay

Royal Charter
10/06/23 – 4.10 Haydock:

Seriously keen when held up early on. Was going okay and kept up to work from over 3f out, but route to progress closed until over 1f out behind horses as she was also hanging to the left. Finished much the best.

Strong seasonal reappearance. Obviously more to come. Does stay 7f no problems. Needs to settle better and follow a strong pace. Drop to 6f not out of question, either.

Race Replay

Ascot Adventure
10/06/23 – 2.40 Beverley:

Moved quickly forward to push a strong pace as part of a duo. Rolled down the hill, quite inefficient sectionals. Was able to actually kick on somewhat in the home straight once again. Impressive, before getting tired late.

Huge run. Joint career-2nd best speed rating (78). 7.5f stretches his stamina. Best over 7f, ground independent. Also 6f with plenty of cut possible.

Down to good mark. Any additional help from the handicapper a bonus as he looks in top form in the right race.

Was seriously disappointing at Thirsk in the meantime. However, deserves another chance as the ground turned that day and the race developed into a strange one down the stands’ rail.

Race Replay

Swinging Eddie
10/06/23 – 3.20 Catterick:

Great early pace. Led early on, but always pressured. Did way too much in the first half of the race and did extremely well to finish as well as he did.

In superb form this year. Ran to 61 speed rating when winning at Beverley. Possibly a touch better on decent ground. Down to fair mark and capable of winning still. Ran to better speed ratings last season and looks in similar form.

Race Replay

Physique
11/06/23 – 1.35 Goodwood:

Caught wide and without cover from the highest draw. Couldn’t get in until halfway through the race. Gelding was clearly lit up and his chances decimated by then. Got ever so slightly impeded by a tiering front-runner from 2f out before he finished the fastest over the last two furlongs regardless.

Fair to say with a better draw and run he would have won. Lightly raced, has scope off his current mark as he should be should be already a 95+ horse.

Has shown he handles fast ground without a problem. Should have options to stay a mile but maybe too keen at this stage of his career.

Ran a big race for a long time in a hot Handicap at Royal Ascot in the meantime. Maybe didn’t quite get home over the stiff mile there.

Race Replay

First Ruler
11/06/23 – 4.25 Goodwood:

Trailed the small field. Looked a bit awkward around the home turn, probably not helped that the pace increased significantly at that point. Niggled and reminder received and had to made progress right into the fastest part of the race, no advantage from off the pace. Ran home strongest.

Return run. Deserves and upgrade. Ran a 91 speed rating in Meydan when winning over 12f. and seems still progressive with age and maturity.

Stays the trip obviously, but would love to see him over 10f with a fast pace to chase. Could bring out improvement and maybe good enough to land a Group 3. Didn’t have many opportunities of that sort.

Race Replay

Mattice
11/06/23 – 3.45 Beverley:

Started quickly, did a lot in the first three furlongs to grab the lead and stay there. Tired badly in the final furlong. Strong run, competitive race.

Comes slowly down in ratings and class. Ran often in ultra-competitive races. Looks capable still, certainly in an easier race, where he can dominate.

Race Replay

Winter Crown
11/06/23 – 5.15 Beverley:

Second widest draw, caught wide early, then caught behind a wall of horses. Had to delay his run and fight for a gab to finally get out in the clear, re-organise himself with less than a furlong to go to run home strongly.

Was unfortunate from a poor draw, away from the pace, and short of room lto as well. Clearly better than OR 76. Should be hard to beat if moving back up to 6f, but a stiff 5f seem fine too. Fast ground no issue.

Race Replay

La Roca Del Fuego
12/06/23 – 5.08 Windsor:

Started quickly, led against the inside rail, under pressure as he stayed there while main bunch went away from the inside. Weakened rapidly. Rain and ground probably turned against him.

Better on AW and definitely needs fast ground on turf. Was well-backed here, and ran with plenty of credit from the front lto. Down to dangerous mark on turf and sand over 5f.

Race Replay

Dulcet Sprit
12/06/23 – 4.30 Lingfield:

Moved forward to grab the lead and led by a couple of lengths setting a good, honest, even pace. Was much faster through the first half than the eventual winner and second. Showed good attitude right to the line.

First time on turf, definitely looks like one who enjoys fast ground. Wasn’t expected, and neither in her last starts. Won well off 58 on the AW and should come down to intriguing mark on turf as well, especially in a race where she can dominate.

Wouldn’t be out of it if she drops to 6f in a race with not much pace to compete. Ideally see her drop below a mark off 58.

Race Replay

Get Off Me
12/06/23 – 5.00 Lingfield:

Started alright, got to the rail and led, did more than the rest in a hotly contested run. Excellent 4f performance before tired badly, although quite understandable given the early exertions.

Followed on nicely from huge run lto on the AW when he finished seriously strongly in a hot race for the grade, after missing the break. Can be sluggish at the start. Maybe headgear can help.

Looks to have pace for the minimum trip certainly. Huge runner if he drops back in grade with a solid start.

Race Replay

Grant Wood
12/06/23 – 8.30 Pontefract:

Wide draw, slowly away, perhaps by design. Settled in rear, trailing as the field turned for home. Loads to do but kept answering calls and accelerated well making solid progress against the inside. Not quite clear run over 1f out and jockey seemed happy enough to concede defeat.

Wasn’t in it to go close. Changed yards. Seasonal reappearance. Should come one and probably be better over 7f. Ran 72 speed rating last year. Up in trip and some money in the betting will tell whether the handbrake is off.

Race Replay

Jimmy Lifestyle
13/06/23 – 3.10 Salisbury:

Covered up early, tried to unwind for challenge from over 3f out on the outside which seemed a difficult place to come from. Didn’t get overly hard ride and ran on well to the line.

Looks a big lad and may improve with racing. Up in trip to 7f could be interesting of a revised mark as he may not quite have the speed for 6f.

Race Replay

Sam’s Call
15/06/23 – 4.20 Nottingham:

Not ideally drawn and slightly bumped by rival out of the gate. Not ideally placed behind horses and short of room 2f out, had to switch ever so slightly, lost momentum, before running home strongly. Finished 3 of last 4 furlongs faster than well-handicapped winner. Good form.

Can hit flat spot in the middle of his races. Best over 5f. Down to dangerous mark, although not prolific and doesn’t deserve many chances.

Race Replay

Rum Cocktail
15/06/23 – 7.10 Haydock:

Travelled in rear before making ever so slightly progress while niggled covered up behind a wall of horses, never seemed to be entirely happy. Bulldozed her way through a gap from 2f out, shifted, slightly unbalanced before galvanized to mount challenge.

Finished joint best last 3f. Bit unlucky to finish only 3rd. Down to good mark. Ran solid speed ratings this year already. Dangerous over minimum trip on decent ground, but 6f could be worth a try and unlock improvement too.

Race Replay

Azazat
16/06/23 – 6.35 Cork:

Close up with the pace, tracked the leader. Was going well, but got stuck behind the first two from 3f out which gave the eventual winner the opportunity for a decisive move. Switched 2f out and found plenty for pressure.

Unfortunate, but strong form. Excellent 96 speed rating which gives her a crack at Graded race. Still lightly enough race to see some improvement that would see her competitive against the better 3yo fillies over 12f.

Race Replay

Tafreej
17/06/23 – 3.20 Chester:

Not ideally drawn and bit slowly away, confined to the rear of the field. Got unbalanced around the home turn as she was also short of room until hitting the straight. Ran home the fastest.

Still unexposed and looks certainly ready to move up in trip. The dam won over 1m 4f. Interesting over a mile at least, and offers potential off 84.

Race Replay

Rathbone
17/06/23 – 5.25 York:

Excellent early speed, was quick through the first four furlongs before gradually tiering. He was probably advantaged by riding on the far side, but still did very well to stay in front for long.

This was a competitive race. Ran well in good Handicap lto. Clearly back in form and could win in a less competitive race and a front-runner track. Won off 90 and ran to 86 speed rating last summer. Maybe not quite as good these days but on a dangerous mark.

Race Replay

Tees George
18/06/23 – 5.00 Doncaster:

Bumped early on by a rival. Settled in rear. Was able to answer the accelerations after a pedestrian opening, and ran on well on the outside, easily under hands and heels in the final furlong.

Should certainly for a step up in trip. 7-8f probably no issue at all on pedigree. Still lightly raced and mark 0f 60 offers opportunities.

Race Replay

Betting

Saturday Selections: 10th June 2023

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As I increase the volume there’s going to be blanks days nonetheless. Must say I was quietly confident Friday wouldn’t be one, though.

In the end what’s left is a second and a third place. Not good when you have five chances and four of those are expected to be close.

Cuban Breeze was the one who came closest… within half a lengths of victory. The rest, never looked like winning, truth told.

The one I’d like to have back is Belsito. I still like the horse and his chances in general, however the low draw diminished his chances right away and I should have seen it coming – or, at least take that more into account for the price. 9/2 was a silly price to take. A poor value selection.

……

1.15 Haydock: Listed Achilles Stakes, 5f

A strong field for a listed contest. Equilateral may get the perfect race from his draw and wit the likely pace scenario, though at prices I can’t leave Raasel unbacked.

It’s going to be interesting to see how the straight track rides, but the fact he could have a pace to chase on his side from the #1 draw as well for potentially an easy route out on the outside for a challenge is something possibly positive.

He can be clearly forgiven the recent Temple Stakes run, as it’s widely known how the draw played a major role in the outcome of that race. The same could happen here.

It’s a smaller field, there is a different pace scenario, on the other hand, and that may even things out.

Raasel left an unsatisfying Meydan adventure behind when he returned to more familiar shores with an excellent 4th place in the Palace House Stakes. he achieved a 98 speed rating there, the best anyone in this field ran this year so far.

Fast ground is no issue for him. As long as Haydock rides fairer than a few weeks ago he looks a huge price here.

10pts win – Raasel @ 11/2

……….

3.20 Catterick: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Fiftyshadesofred looks seriously well-handicapped if he can put his best foot forward. Hee’s a tricky lad, yet he has ran two strong speed ratings in two of his last three races, both over 7 furlongs.

Last time at Ayr he overcame a sluggish start and went forward to lead at a red hot pace. He found plenty under pressure and was only beaten late by two rivals from off the pace.

Before that he didn’t stay a mile but two runs back ran seriously well at Chelmsford over 7 furlongs. That looks his trip, and the fact he ran to 65 and 64 speed ratings now the last two times over this trip, on two different surfaces, gives his form credibility.

It should be ideal that there’s a lot of pace to be expected here in this race. He has a good draw to follow it, as long as she starts well. That should help him to settle.

William Pyle is a competent 7lb claimer. This weight allowance can only help; on the other hand he’s a tricky ride. So some risks are attached.

10pts win – Fiftyshadesofred @ 9/2

………

8.00 Chepstow: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Winforglory is up in class here but should still be well capable of winning in this grade, especially over 7 furlongs on fast ground. The hood is back on, which hopefully helps him to settle better, as he can be quite keen.

Even though he won over a mile on the sand, I’m not sure he would get a truly run race on turf, especially a demanding course like Chepstow. Hence this 7 furlongs test could be ideal.

The gelding was catching the eye with his last two runs -first at Chelmsford, his second run off a 207 day break, when a bit unfortunate being a clear run denied in the home straight. Perhaps even more so when last seen at Lingfield:

That day he tracked the hot early pace but he was seriously keen with the hood off, did way too much too soon. I was impressed how he was still able to kick on and challenge for the win, less than two lengths beaten in 3rd eventually.

A strong 75 speed rating gives the performance merit. He looks clearly capable to win off his current mark and should be some pounds better. The jockey booking is a risk, though. This 7lb claimer just doesn’t win races and usually rides horses to lose.

10pts win – Winforglory @ 4/1

……….

One more I’m interested in but not any price able to get tonight, waiting for what the market says tomorrow and then going to decide….