12.33 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 1m
Obviously Wake Up Harry is here, who I was quite keen to back on Monday, before Kempton got cancelled.
I can’t back him here from the #10, though. As my week goes, he probably wins now. He’s good enough and has perhaps the pounds in hand to overcome it, but with a muddling pace scenario it’s not a price I am prepared to back.
Purely a value play with the pace scenario in mind is Adaayinourlife, instead. He won eleven month ago a CD Handicap of similar setup, although that day he had a much wider draw to overcome.
Today he’s got an ideal #2 draw to move forward and grab the lead. There is lack of pace here, and that will play into his cards to use his possibly superior speed, as otherwise the mile trip is right at his limit.
His comeback run at Kempton last month after having been off the track since April was quite pleasing. He found the 7f a bit sharp on the day but run nicely in the home straight.
If he can strip fitter and get the ideal pace scenario he’s seriously overprices; although, with this yard, you just never know whether they run on their merit.
10pts win – Adaayinourlife @ 20/1
1.43 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Solar Profit has ran much better the last two times than the bare form suggest. He didn’t stay last time out when fading badly, but it was positive to see him start sharply.
That wasn’t the case on his penultimate run over 6 furlongs at Southwell, when poorly away from the gate, left too far off the pace, caught wide and yet he made eye-catching progress from halfway through the race.
That form looks quite strong on paper, too. Therefore this slightly stronger race doesn’t worry me. He’s 3lb lower in his OR now and remains unexposed over this sprint trip.
From the perfect #4 draw, if he gets the start right, he should move forward and be right up with the pace in a race where not too many seem likely to compete for the lead.
This is his third start for the Boughey yard and since being gelded, he should be hitting peak readiness today, with blinkers back on and the apprentice of the minute on board.
10pts win – Solar Profit @ 4/1
7.00 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m
Very few look interesting from a handicapping point of view in this field, and I suspect the way the race is likely to be run, will disadvantage the vast majority.
One who is likely to go forward and won’t have an issue from his wider than normally ideal draw is Counsel. He doesn’t appear overly well handicapped, and his strike rate is poor, but he warrants upgrading for his recent runs.
He runner-up performance behind Brains looks really solid, and he ran much better than the bare form last time out at Southwell as he did a lot to cross over from an #11 draw to lead.
He shouldn’t need to spend too much energy to get over today. There are not many here who have shown in the pace a consistent eagerness to lead.
Off a mark of 78 he has a bit to find in this class on speed ratings as his sole win a is 7f Novice race from last year at Lingfield. However, he appears to be a better horse on the All-Weather, and potentially on the polytrack surface.
His two Kempton runs can be forgiven. He was held up and not in the race back then. The trip shouldn’t be an issue at all, even though he is yet to win over a mile.
What is a clear positive is the jockey booking. Williams/O’Neill is a potent combo.
10pts win – Counsel @ 12/1