Tag Archives: Flat Racing

Saturday Selections: February, 2nd 2019

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

12.35 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 7 furlongs

Only one ride today, that usually is a sign of confidence if Joe Fanning makes his way down to Lingfield. His mount Port Of Leith may have a future over further, but right now offers still plenty of scope over this 7f trip also.

A cozy CD winner in December off 2lb lower in a good race, which loooks strong form through the runner-up who is now 5lb higher rated than back then, today is only his second All-Weather start.

He couldn’t follow up at Kempton subsequently but you can forgive that run. Master Fanning may be able to dictate matters in this small field today and that could be telling when it matters most in the closing stages.

Selection:
10pts win – Port Of Leith @ 6/1 MB

……..

6.45 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 1 mile

Looks a competitive race, but in reality most are in the grip of the handicapper. That leaves space for an unexposed sort. I feel Enzemble could be this. Still generally lightly raced, particularly on the All-Weather.

Gerald Mosse back in the saddle, he steered Enzemble to CD success last summer. The 4-year-old followed up with a strong runner-up performance behind a subsequent Group 3 winner and ran another nice race on Turf.

Changed yard since then, returned to the track after a small break here at Kempton last month. He finished well enough after hitting a flat spot over 2f out. He needs to improve to have a chance today.

But he should be capable of doing so. Enzemble’s mark has dropped below 80 now – given he already ran to higher RPR’s and an 80 TS rating (on turf) there is a fair possibility he is something like a mid-80 rated individual.

Selection:
10pts win – Enzemble @ 7/1 MB

………

8.15 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

In truth, I do not have all that much trust in the ability of Spring Ability – but in a wide open race I feel this lad has a chance to outrun a huge price tag. And there a reasons for it.

First of all, the yard has a fair spell. Furthermore trainer Laura Mongan’s charges excel over longer trips generally and her record with horses stepping up in trip is quite excellent.

So, from that perspective, seeing Spring Ability, who has only his second handicap start, stepping up to 12f after doing most of his races over a mile, until his latest 10f bout at Lingfield, a second run after a long break, gives a bit of hope.

Spring Ability looks quite a big and scopey individual. He’s related to a couple of 12f winners, so clearly bred to go this distance, and you can pretty much draw a line under anything he has done so far.

Whether today is already the day to let the handbreak off, I don’t know. Price suggests no. Mark is still high enough. But then, it seems significant to me to see him running 3rd time after a break, 2nd handicap, for the first time over “his” trip with a good jockey in the saddle also. And not to forget, Spring Ability’s best career run came at Kempton.

Selection:
10pts win – Spring Ability @ 100/1 MB

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Thursday Selections: January, 24th 2019

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2.55 Southwell: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 4f

Michael Appleby has a 22% strike rate in handicaps at Southwell with horses running for the first time for him, so that makes High Command an interesting contender.

The latest performances are concerning, though. A long beaten 5/2 four of five in claimer at Wolverhampton is the latest of below-par performances. One has to bank on Appleby’s magic hands.

On the other hand, what also could lead to a change in fortunes is the return to the Southwell fibresand. High Command is 2/2 here, including a CD success and dropped 2lb lelow his last winning mark.

From a good draw, a horse who likes to go forward, he may use his stamina to stretch the field and make use of the good mark, if rejuvenated by the change of yard.

Selection:
10pts win – High Command @ 7/1 MB

…….

6.25 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

New headgear combination for Fink Hill. How that works remains to be seen. He’s drifting in the market, so that’s a negative. He also has an engagement in a couple of days, which is interesting. So is that jockey Charles Bishop comes here for this one ride only, which is a positive.

Since winning a 5f sprint at Southwell in hands of Bishop, Fink Hill has been on a downward curve. A subsequent 6th, 3l beaten at Wolverhampton under a penalty was still a fair effort, but he was a long way down the field the next three times.

A return to this course and distance is interesting: arguably his best career performance came here in a few years ago, when 3rd of a mark of 70, running to a TS rating of 61.

So, dropping down to a mark of 60 over this CD in a weakish class 6 Handicap a return to form isn’t out of question today.

Selection:
10pts win – Fink Hill @ 22/1 MB

Wednesday Selections: January, 23rd 2019

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7.45 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

Still a maiden after 18 starts, but Caracas has shown a bit of life here and there, both on turf and the All-Weather. He drops in trip, a somewhat unfamiliar one, as only twice did he contest the 12f distance.

Form wise his 5th from last March over 2 miles at Chelmsford rates a pretty strong piece of form. He came agonizingly close a few months later at Nottingham when only a head beaten. Consistency, though, isn’t Caracas’s game.

Second up after a break today in a poor race, he has a highly successful 3lb claiming apprentice in the saddle – Joshua Bryan comes here for this one ride only today, which looks significant.

Of a mark of 52 Caracas looks rather well handicapped if he can put his best foot forward over this trip that on pedigree should suit.

Selection:
10pts win – Caracas @ 21/1 MB

Saturday Selections: January, 19th 2019

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1.25 Lingfield: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Super competitive race; there is the unknown quantity of Irish recruit Sheberghan. Hard to know what to get from him. Short favourite Forbidden Planet looks ready to defy a 9lb penalty after an impressive DC win when last seen.

And yet, conditions today pointing toward Emenem, who’s somewhat underappreciated in the market here.

The 5 year old comes from a break, but runs well fresh, usually. He also returns to the scene of his best efforts. He’s 4-2-2 over course and distance and achieved his two highest RPR’s – 99 – over the 10f trip at Lingfield.

The most recent of those, nearly a year ago in a hot class 3 Handicap, when runner-up of a mark off 93, is arguably the best piece of form in this field in my book. Emenem is down to 84 now after a string of underwhelming performances.

Underwhelming only by this high standard set. So, he looks potentially well in here – he will most likely enjoy this small field as his record proves, which he may be able to dominate or at least sit tight behind the pace. Emenem should be in the perfect spot to challenge when it matters most.

Selection:
10pts win – Emenem @ 9/1 MB

…….

3.40 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6 furlongs

The market leaders appear strong but are beatable all the same. I am happy to take them on with Big Time Maybe who’s fresh off a wind OP and drops to a sexy mark.

Fitness is a question mark after the break and whether the wind issue has been rectified. The way he dropped out of races showed he had a problem there obviously. If the OP has done any good, then Big Time Maybe could be supremely well handicapped here judged on past performance.

He’s ran a handful of times to much higher time speed ratings than his current handicap mark and achieved many times much higher RPR’s too. Mostly over 5f, however he ran only 3x over 6f on the AW when odds suggested he wasn’t there to win.

In this small field the race could be run to suit him the most. Master Kirby is in the saddle. So well worth the risk that is undoubtedly attached with Big Time Maybe, who on the other hand could also have way too much in hand for this lot.

 Selection:
10pts win – Big Time Maybe @ 6/1 MB

…….

7.45 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

Iley Boy has been running well lately. He took advantage of a slipping mark at Kempton but couldn’t follow up subsequently. However, I felt his last two runs were better than the bare form suggests.

It is probably true he’s a better horse at Kempton, still he travelled pretty well over CD the last two times here; particularly the most recent effort when 4th behind Apex Predator is a strong piece of form where his performance has to be upgraded due to the fact he didn’t quite get the best of runs.

A mark of 56 leaves little wriggle room most likely, but he’s handicapped to go close. He’s got an excellent draw tonight and Joey Haynes, who rode Iley Boy to victory at Kempton also, comes here for this one ride only.

Selection:
10pts win – Iley Boy @ 11/1 MB

My Betting Review 2018

671.50 points profit. 28.78% ROI – 239 bets, 33 successful selections: 2018.

A fine year from a punting perspective! It’s back-to-back profitable years in fact, ever since I changed my approach to betting on horses. As last year was all about refining, tweaking and adjusting the method, 2018 was all about putting it consistently to work.

There is no doubt that the All-Weather is my happy hunting ground. It’s so by a wide margin outperforming turf in terms of profit and ROI, and has delivered the majority of success this year: 605pts.

Of course a few big priced winners helped. They always help. However, you only find long-shots if you consistently punt them, and they only turn into a long-term profit if you find value in them. The notion that any 20/1 shot is automatically value isn’t only flawed, it’s the route to bankruptcy.

The British Turf has been a different story: a lot of bets for a negative return: -49.50pts. The story could have been a different one if not for 7 furlong races. 22 selections, not a single winner. Burned a lot of money there. Take those out of the equation and it would have been a healthy profit.

Jumps delivered a minimal loss -8pts. The Cheltenham Festival, profitably for the second year running, couldn’t make up for an otherwise poor performance over obstacles.

It’s simply not where my strengths are and I don’t have the same tools available as for flat racing. It’s telling on the scoreboard.

On the international front it was yet again a fine year. From a small selection of bets, the highlights were Hawkbill in Dubai and of course for the second year running, finding the Melbourne Cup winner with Cross Counter: +144pts.

January and March 2018 contributed as the most successful months of the year to the profit of 2018. No surprise, as those are major months for the All-Weather.

The summer months were a difficult roller-coaster. August resulted in a -90pts loss, October posting minus 75pts.

Clearly there is a lot to learn from all of that, though:

  1. Despite having more selections in 2018 than the year before I found less winners and posted a smaller ROI, yet a higher profit. 2019 shall be about quality over quantity.
  2. Low grade- and 7 furlong Handicaps on Turf have been a disaster. Keep selections on this type of races to an absolute minimum.
  3. Jumps: Focus on the Cheltenham Festival. Keep money in the pocket otherwise.

One of the major issues developing over the course of 2018 has been the problem of getting on with bookies. This is nothing totally new. Many punters face severe restrictions.

Only over the last two years, though – punting higher sums as confidence in my process is rock solid now, followed up by monetary success – I have started to see my accounts become restricted. Bet365, Sky, VC or Betway – they all market their products prominently but only want mugs to join them (from a business perspective: who can blame them!).

Most firms, big an small, have restricted my accounts to meaningless amounts these days. A certain Geoff Banks – at least he had the guts to engage in a real conversation, mind – accused me of cheating. While all I’m doing is working hard and putting in the effort.

Obviously the majority of my races are lower grade, less liquid markets, mid-week. To get a reasonable stake of something like 100 quid on  to an 8/1 shot is neigh to imposible. And it doesn’t even matter whether you’re winning long term with these firms or not.

Exchanges help, but only to an extend. Betfair has high charges, particularly if you win well over a certain period of time. And markets for my races aren’t always liquid.

I’ve found Matchbook a pretty good substitute, thankfully. The markets are growing. Even though I barely get my full stake on top prices, at least I get my stake on within a range of odds that I still regard as value.

The issue of “getting on” has put me off the idea to potentially increase my flat stake – yes, I do bet with flat stake, because it simply works best for my process, particularly mentally – and considering going full time. The hassle isn’t worth it.

For now it remains a wonderful side income. Tax free. 671.50 points profit and 28.78% return of investment for around 20 hours work a week – that’s pretty decent – no bank gives you that sort of interest on your money. And I do actually enjoy the hours put in as well. A win-win situation.

  • A complete list of all 2018 selections can be found here.

Disclaimer: This website is not a betting service. I do not take responsibility for your losses. This is a betting blog where I write about my selections. If others follow, enjoy the read and get on to a few winners thanks to this blog – great, I’m happy. Please only bet what you can afford to lose!

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Saying that: happy punting in 2019 – and bringing it to an end with my personal favourite victories of 2018:

Tuesday Selections: November, 13th 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

6.45 Chelmsford: Class 7 Handicap, 1m 5½f

It could be a tip in itself that Kieran Shoemark comes here for only one ride on the card. He rides Rip Van Winkle son Lumen. The gelding hasn’t shown anything in four lifetime starts but off a super low weight and opening mark on handicap debut in this poor race he looks one of the more likely contenders.

Certainly there could be a bit of improvement, the dam has produced a solid half-brother already; a good draw will a big help in order to settle in a fine spot today also.

Interestingly Lumen has another entry on the weekend at Lingfield in better grade. I take this as a positive nod toward his chances today, as he may be able to run again under a penalty, if successful today.

Selection:
10pts win – Lumen @ 13/2 MB

Saturday Selections: November, 10th 2018

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3.15 Doncaster: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 4f

The November Handicap, one final big one in the soon to be closed chapter that was the 2018 flat season.

It feels like nearly everything Charlie Appleby touches turns to gold these days. Can he wrap up this superb week for him with a success here? I certainly think so! His inmate Wolf Country comes here relatively fresh compared to most others after a recent pleasing return to the track.

That was last month at Goodwood in a competitive race – the form has already started to work out well. Wolf Country was a fine runner-up, leading for most parts of the race. It has to be said he was advantaged by the fact that a he wasn’t hampered by a fallen horse behind him. Most of the field was. So the performance is to be taken with a pinch of salt.

Still, he travelled well, set a good pace and looked comfortable in atrocious conditions, leaving his only other UK start in 2018 well behind, when he last of 15 at Newmarket in May.

His only other piece of form this year came at Meydan. A fine 4th place finish in a pretty strong handicap – he was leading until 300m out against Group class performers.

Things haven’t quite gone the way conditions would surely have hoped for Wolf Country. A Listed winner at three, a creditable and not far beaten 5th in the Dante – he is a talented lad and since being gelded those two of three runs have been very promising.

A mark off 98 gives him a fair chance here today – he could be a better than that. The soft ground conditions are certainly a positive. The wide draw not necessarily for a front-runner. Regardless, I have him down as the favourite here if he can improve from his recent comeback run.

Selection:
10pts win – Wolf Country @ 8.8/1 MB