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Betting

Sunday Selections: 12th May 2024

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3.30 Longchamp: Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains, 1m

Obviously Henry Longfellow is the one I’m most interested in. One of my horses to follow this year (hardly an original thought, to be fair), he’s got the looks of a potential superstar.

Drawn in #6 the son of Dubawi won’t have many excuses today and I hope he just runs away with it. At the price, it’s hard to justify a bet, in a deep race, though.

Purely from a value perspective I must back Dancing Gemini, who will enjoy a low draw, a prominent racing position and has shown a significant amount of talent as a juvenile as well.

Reportedly having wintered well, connections were deliberate routing their star colt to Longchamp as opposed to Newmarket. Perhaps a wise move, given he should enjoy this test, with the draw and the way the race may pan out a lot better.

The son of Camelot is quite experienced already. Five runs, two wins and he improved significantly for his fist two career runs as well as racing more forward.

He hinted no uncertain amount of talent when sprinting away at Newbury with a first maiden success in August, before romping home in the Scotsman Stakes.

Perhaps committing too early in the Futurity Stakes, Dancing Gemini ran still with plenty of credit in a hot renewal back in October last year.

He’s shown to handle juice in the ground – important today. The step up in trip is sure to suit, given his pedigree, by Camelot and out of a daughter of Australia.

Given this pedigree, it seems noteworthy the tactical speed he showed last year. His talent is underpinned by a fine 73 debut speed rating in June and a strong 99 speed rating when he won at Doncaster.

The exchange prices are way over the top in my view, so I’m happy to back him against the favourite.

10pts win – Dancing Gemini @ 18/1

……..

4.17 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

With the pace chart somewhat muddling, I feel it can be worth to side with proven and happy front-runner Jean Baptiste, who ran incredibly well from the front a fortnight ago at Ayr to finish a gallant 2nd.

No certainty that he can confirm that strong performance, but back on the sand where some of his best career efforts came over the years, especially this CD (regardless of what the naked record says, on speed ratings he ran really well in higher grades here).

Two pounds up and he loses the valuable claim of Jonny Peate today, compared to Ayr, that’s not ideal. But still 3lb below his last winning mark on turf, and the same 79 rating as when an excellent second two years ago over this course and distance.

Jean Baptiste is value at current prices in my book, well capable to outrun the odds in an open race that lacks quality. He’s drifting, though, which isn’t a good sign for this type of horse, to be fair.

10pts win – Jean Baptiste @ 11.5/1

…….

3.07 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Favourite Cross The Tracks looks well drawn but not sure why he’s so short, as the drop in trip doesn’t look ideal and he’s 8lb worth off in the weights than last time.

Yes, that came in a hot class 2 Handicap, so he’s shown a bit of class. But not on speed ratings yet. At that price I’m happy to take him on.

Mr Wonderful and Oakland Princess look intriguing opposition here. If race fit, the Amo Racing gelding could prove better than a 77 rating on his handicap debut.

However, I’m most intrigued by the filly, Oakland Princess, who can race here off a feather weight and should have plenty more to offer.

I felt it was significant that she didn’t take up her entry at Nottingham yesterday, in a race I thought she had a strong chance. Instead she comes here.

The filly ran with plenty of credit on her Handicap debut over this course and distance earlier this month. But she didn’t get a clean run through, was badly stopped in her progress at 1.5f from home, but got going again and finished well under hands and heels.

She appeared still raw in the early stages of the race. With the added experience, and hopefully a clear run today, she’s in with a shot. The draw isn’t ideal, away from the early pace, but Sam James shouldn’t have too much trouble to get across quickly to track the lead.

10pts win – Oakland Princess @ 8/1

…….

5.27 Newcastle: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f

It seems worth to take a chance on Curran in an open race back over the course and distance of his very first career win.

You can forgive his seasonal reappearance at Doncaster in deep ground where he made way too much too soon in any case, in a what was a competitive Handicap, too.

This is easier. There’s competition for the lead from the favourite, but that may well suit, in fact, as Curran can track the pace, as he did when he won twice last year.

Todays run will also be his second after having been gelded over the winter. You’d hope to see a significantly improved performance compared to Doncaster.

10pts win – Curran @ 17/2

Betting

Saturday Selections: 11th May 2024

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Right now I’m once again in a most depressing phase of my betting journey. You know the feeling, when whatever you touch, it turns into a stinky brown turd? Yeah, that’s exactly it.

Backing Too Friendly at 14s, well supported before to off to start a 9/2 second favourite, just to bomb out. It must been weeks now that a selection was even within a shot for a place with three furlongs to go. Properly depressing.

…….

3.00 Lingfield: Listed Derby Trial, 1m 3.5f

This looks a wide open renewal that lacks a clear favourite and superstar…. at this stage, at least. Ballysax third Illinois heads the market, though hard to fancy him with a significant amount of confidence, judged on what he’s done so far.

On the other hand, he’ll likely enjoy the better ground, and the AOB yard seems to have kicked into gear this week, in no uncertain terms. Hence a fair default favourite, but nothing more than that.

Camelot son Defiance was a fast finishing second in the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom. That gives him an obvious chance to feature, if he can get off to a better start and doesn’t find himself too far back.

The pace should be decent, so that may play into his hands. But he’s a skinny enough price, and I probably would fancy Illinois in a match bet.

The Euphrates is another AOB trained colt. Really nicely bred, he should also enjoy the better ground and you’d expect him to improve significantly on the bare form he’s sown in three career runs to date.

Meydaan could be a lot better than he showed on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket where he dwelt and made life difficult for himself. He looked an exciting prospect on his sole juvenile run last year.

Arabic Legend has to improve, given his 1/4 record and having been keen enough over 10 furlongs at Epsom last month. Salamanca, a son of Sea The Stars, has a lot to find after two winless career runs, while Ambiente Friendly was well-beaten in his last two runs and doesn’t give the appearance of a Derby prospect.

No doubt, the one I must follow here is Imperial Sovereign. He was quite an eye catcher on his seasonal reappearance at Kempton in a hot Novice race. Only a head beaten behind a possibly seriously smart winner (British Camp one of my horses to follow this year).

That day Imperial Sovereign wasn’t smartly away from the gates, but soon recovered and tracked the pace. He then travelled much the best, on the bridle until 2f out, before being all out to the line to be beaten by a better horse on the day, as close as it was ultimately.

He showed a likeable attitude putting his head down and answering ever call, though. That was only his second career run and he won well on debut last autumn.

From a pedigree perspective the trip isn’t impossible, if not a given that he sees it out. Nonetheless, he’s bred to be classy, and everything he has shown so far points to the son of Frankel certainly having the ability to win at this level.

The dam did her best work with a bit of juice in the ground. Therefore the faster the going gets, the bigger the questions to answer on that front. However, it may help him to stay the trip a little bit better.

In any case, given the open nature of this contest, I feel looks certainly overpriced, given what he’s done so far, and the opposition he encountered (if I’m right that the Kempton race is a strong piece of form, indeed).

10pts win – Imperial Sovereign @ 15.5/1 SM

……

May add one or two additional selections on Saturday morning, depending on how markets develop.

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 8th May 2024

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8.30 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

In the hope Bated Breeze is allowed to run on merit today, he looks seriously overpriced in this race tonight. He met some of these before and is better off in the weights over an identical course and distance.

Most importantly, his two runs this season have been noteworthy. He caught the eye early April over this CD especially, which was backed up by a good speed rating that day as well.

From a wider than ideal gate he was awkwardly away and had to settle in rear, trailing the field, keenly enough. He quickened in visually arresting style from 3f out right into the fastest part of the race. He couldn’t quite get back to the leaders who enjoyed the run of the race, though.

Those first two home ran good speed ratings and were clearly well-handicapped on their handicap debuts. Bated Breeze also ran a 62 speed rating and I felt that performances warranted a chunky upgrade, which could mean he’s potentially well-handicapped off 64.

Fancied at Bath the next time, he didn’t run without merit in a seriously strong race, I thought. He couldn’t keep up the red hot pace after travelling strongly behind the leader until 2f out.

A #1 draw today offers options to move forward, as he did the last time. He’ll have to be at his best out of the gate as some pace pressure is expected to move right across from the wider gates.

If that works out well, the gelding should be in a perfect position and can race just off the lead, covered up. Off a mark of 64 he should have pounds in hand today back on the sand.

It’s Tom Queally’s only ride on the card and he was riding well for this yard lately. So that’s a positive, although the betting is the concern I have, with Bated Breeze going the wrong way.

10pts win – Bated Breeze @ 12/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 4th May 2024

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1.45 Newmarket: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

Mums Tipple impressed in two of his three runs this year on the sand and suggested the way he finished those races that he retains plenty of talent as a now 7-year-old gelding.

He’s not the most prolific winner these days, but he could be quite well handicapped in the context of the race, with fitness most likely assured and a handicap mark that may underestimate him.

He drops back to 6 furlongs, which should suit. His best performances have come over this trip and any rain won’t be a hindrance to his chances at all. The #1 gate is a question mark – but I hope Ryan Moore in the saddle will make some good decisions early on in a race with not too much pace.

In any case, I must go back to his three runs in 2024, with the most recent one at Kempton catching the eye in no uncertain terms, when runner-up behind smart Mount Athos.

He travelled in rear and wasn’t advantaged by a slow pace, being poorly positioned, compared to the winner, who enjoyed an easy race from the front. Mums Tipple made eyecatching progress from over 3f out as he finished the final three furlongs fastest as well to be denied by a head in the end.

He pulled too hard in a slowly run race over 7f prior at Wolverhampton but was seriously unfortunate when held up from the widest draw and not getting in clear run while hard held on his seasonal reappearance at Lingfield.

Now a return to turf, off a 97 handicap mark, that offers opportunities. He was competitive off 100 last summer in some hot races and still ran to a 94 speed rating a Ascot.

Key will be the start, though: if slowly away, as he can be, and held up, in a race that may not be ran at a furious pace, it’s likely game over there and then. But you trust Ryan Moore to read the pace chart, so I’m hopeful he’ll navigate Mums Tipple into a solid position to give the gelding every chance.

10pts win – Mums Tipple @ 10/1

……..

2.05 Goodwood: Listed Fillies’ Stakes, 1m

Choisya was the one to take out from the Snowdrop Stakes last month, where she got desperately close against the run of the race.

Caught wide throughout, given the way the race panned out in front of her, she made superb progress from halfway through the race, always turning widest, and it was her class that put her into a challenging position with two furlongs to go.

In a battle to the line she had to pay tribute to those earlier exertions eventually, still only beaten by a head, and also finishing the closing stages with the fastest sectionals.

The filly isn’t low mileage compared to some other rivals today. But she was progressive last season, has shown versatility if it comes to ground and racing position, and her last three efforts, a close second at Newmarket in October, and two subsequent All-Weather efforts, give the impression there’s still more to come.

She handles the soft ground and shouldn’t be too far away from likely pace setter Orchid Bloom. This filly sets the standard on speed ratings and looks rock solid, if ready to go off a break.

At given prices, I favour Choisya, though. She hasn’t fully convinced on speed ratings yet, but I firmly believe she’s got the ability to run a big one, in the right conditions – hopefully today.

10pts win – Choisya @ 11/2

………

3.35 Newmarket: Group 1 2000 Guineas, 1m

Can you oppose City Of Troy? if you believe the hype that surrounds the Aiden O’Brien trained colt, you absolutely can not.

On pure numbers COT is clearly the one to beat: unbeaten as a juvenile, a fine 77 speed rating on debut, followed by two 100+ performances, to land the Superlative and Dewhurst Stakes.

That’s the sign of a classy individual, although, not of the “best ever”… yet. He still has to improve going into his classic campaign, and must prove that he has trained on. There’re some question marks looming of Justify offspring in this regard.

The other question: is there anything in this field good enough to beat him? Ten rivals go head to head with City Of Troy.

Haatem won the Craven Stakes showing a lovely attitude last month. His race fitness must count for something and he achieved a decent enough speed rating to give the performance merit. He’s certainly not low mileage, though, and one has to wonder how much more improvement is left.

Unbeaten Ghostwriter won the Royal Lodge in good style when last seen and is one the more likely candidates to improve to the level required to land a Guineas.

He’s achieved two mid-90 speed ratings last year. That’s a solid platform to head into this year, although also, purely judged on that form, still requires a significant step up.

Rosallion, for one, appears the main challenger for City Of Try, if the betting is an accurate reflection. Already a Group 1 winner, he stayed on well to win the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere last October. However, a son of Blue Point stretching out to a mile on this level, I have issues to imagine. Never say never, though.

Task Force is an intriguing horse. second in the Middle Park, yet to race beyond 6 furlongs, but possibly suited by the step up in trip, open to plenty of improvement, could be a different horses as a 3-year-old over this trip, especially after a win operation.

Night Rider was an impressive winner at Southwell earlier this year. Visually an impressive performance, I’m not yet sold on his ability to bring this speed to a mile.

Alyanaabi was third in the Dewhurst behind City Of Troy. He’s got plenty to find judged on that performance. So has Iberian, a long way beaten that day. Though, the step up to a mile will surely suit.

Notable Speech remains unbeaten in three runs this year. All came on the All-Weather over 7 furlongs and didn’t set the world alight on speed rating. Hard to judge how good he is moving up to a mile.

Ten Bob Tony won a Conditions race last month. But this is much more demanding and I struggle to see how he’s anywhere near good enough for this level.

In a summary, one could argue: there’s plenty of unknowns in this race. City Of Troy sets a good standard and the fact Ballydoyle sends him as their sole representative speaks of a high degree of confidence.

Nonetheless, I’m prepared to take the odds-on favourite on because I simply can’t leave Inisherin unbacked. One of my Horses to Follow this year, he appears somewhat underappreciated in this field, yet is one clearly open to tons of improvement.

This son of Shamardal was beaten only half a lengths on debut last September when the market expected nothing from him(50/1). Possibly well drawn on that day, in fairness, he travelled the best of all to 2 furlongs out and was only beaten by a vastly more experienced horse eventually.

That form doesn’t look too shabby, and he also achieved a pretty decent 76 speed rating for a debut performance.

He got his maiden victory ticket off in March at Newcastle with a visually impressive run on his seasonal return.

One can argue he was flattered by that performance because he got the run of the race from the front in a crawl of a race. Nonetheless, the way he easily sprinted home, without ever being really touched, hitting strong sectionals in the final part of the race, screams talent.

Even more so impressive he was able to show this speed and change of gear as the breeding suggests somewhere beyond a mile will be his optimum trip.

Inisherin looks sure to improve for the experience and a step up in trip may be ideal on pedigree post Guineas as he’s out of smart Ajman Princess who was a Ribblesdale Stakes runner-up and winner of the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet.

With that in mind, I feel he should enjoy the likely fast pace in this edition of the 2000 Guineas, that could ensure the race turns into a stamina test in the end.

10pts win – Inisherin @ 49/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 3rd May 2024

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2.15 Musselburgh: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

This is a seriously weak contest. Only two horses truly stand out as serious win candidates.

Of course, favourite Kelpie Grey may well be able to defy a 5lb penalty. He ran to a strong speed rating the last time off a break and should enjoy the likely fast pace here.

At the same time he’s been far from prolific throughout his career and whether he has the gears on this better ground over this trip remains to be seen.

He’s one I’m happy to take on with Gobi Sunset, who himself could be a touch better over shorter 6 furlongs on turf. Nonetheless, he’s a winner over this trip on the sand and with the decent ground – likely to stay that way given the current forecast – he should be fine.

The gelding is possibly supremely well handicapped here, especially with a good 5lb claimer in the saddle. One can ignore the most recent run at Ayr over a wrong trip and class too hot, certainly in that combination.

It may, however, worked as run to put him right for this contest where he also drops down to class 6 for the first time off a dangerous mark. Gobi Sunset is more prolific on sand but has won twice on turf as well, and judged by his performances this winter, remains in good form.

His penultimate effort at Southwell, when third in a strong race that worked out well in the meantime, he was a significant eye catcher, as he did a lot in the first half of the race to overcome a wide draw.

Drawn in #1 this time, that won’t be the same issue, although the pace could be hot which most in the field enjoy being up with it. However, he could enjoy the inside ride, and a fair race to the line should ensure class is the deciding factor.

10pts win – Gobi Sunset @ 7/2

……

4.30 Musselburgh: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Another poor contest. Few appear well handicapped, certainly judged on more recent performances.

Tacitus has emerged as a tentative favourite over night, and that’s a shame because I hoped to get a better price for this gelding. He’s not one to put too much trust in, and clearly he’s not as prolific as his namesake.

But he’s got plenty going for himself today, and could have too much in the tank for this lot.

For one, Tacitus is down to his last winning mark, and back to a course and distance he was a desperately unfortunate runner-up last summer off a 4lb higher mark.

He had two runs on the sand after coming from a nice winter break. There was plenty to like about his his most recent run at Wolverhampton, in fact as he moved forward from a wide draw and was in the mix for a long enough time, without getting a hard ride.

He was 2lb wrong in the handicap, and clearly outclassed in the end. Down to 0-55 against some much poorer opposition, off his real handicap mark, he should be much more competitive.

The #7 draw is slightly wider than ideal here, but he has shown enough early speed in the past to ensure he can move forward to get into a decent position, that provides cover and isn’t too far off whoever leads.

10pts win – Tacitus @ 4/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 28th April 2024

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15.30 Weatherby: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

The pace may not be the strongest, and that could help proven front-runner Crownthorpe to outrun his price. Not sure how many want to be truly up there in testing conditions, perhaps the favourite Harswell Duke, who’s got form, is one of those.

Obviously he’s one I like, as he was a recent eyecatcher, but at prices Crownthorpe is a much better bet. This is his third run off a break, and he ran with plenty of credit on sand the two times prior.

Especially his most recent effort was quite likeable, as he was at the front of proceedings for a long time. If fitness has improved, with the return to turf and a track possibly to suit on ground he won’t mind, the veteran could be hard to pass.

The last time seen on turf was about a year ago, at Beverley on good to soft over 8.5f and he was a gallant 2nd off 6lb higher than today, behind a well-handicapped winner.

He’s got a really strong record in these lower grades and this race represents another slight drop in class.

10pts win – Crownthorpe @ 11/1

……..

5.15 Wetherby: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 6f

Flowering caught the eye a number of times over the recent weeks, without winning, though. The filly ran with plenty of credit on the All-Weather, finishing second or third in her five runs on sand this year, prior to a return to turf last time out.

Her four most recent efforts have all caught my attention in no uncertain way, and they suggest the filly, albeit possibly appearing to find ways of losing and being in the grip of the handicapper, is ripe for a ‘W’.

Earlier this week once again she was somewhat unfortunate. At Beverley, down to 10 furlongs, Flowering clearly proved her suitability for soft ground – crucial today.

The filly has developed some issues at the gate, although this time, not advantaged by the #8 gate, she also stumbled, and as a consequence was bound to travel in rear.

Drawn in #3 today, with not too much pace in the race, I hope she can get toward the front sooner rather than later, as she ran her best races from a prominent position.

At Beverley, she made strong progress, going quite well, but had to delay her run when stuck in traffic and the winner was long gone when she got clear passage. She finished best of all in the deep ground, suggesting, the step up to 1m 6f isn’t out of question.

It’s certainly worth a try, a things happen a little less quick, and that could help her. She seems a relentless galloper, and the track will suit this style, as long as she’s in a prominent racing position.

If that’s the case, a mark of 58 could underestimate her in these conditions, what’s only her 3rd run on turf. The hot favourite beat her on the sand, but soft ground, 1m 6f, at Wetherby is a different story, possibly.

10pts win – Flowering @ 4/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 13th April 2024

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4.00 Aintree: Grand National Handicap Chase, 4m 2f

Backing the winner of the Grand National is one that has eluded me so far. Not sure that’s going to change this year, but I feel two horses are overpriced and offer solid value chances.

I was sweet on Mr Incredible twelve months ago, and only one career run later, he’s nearly as big as back then, when he looked to be in with a solid shout until the saddle slipped after the 24th and Bryan Hayes went off board.

It’s hard to say whether he would have gone close, but I felt he went better than I ever imagined, given he can be a tricky horse. He jumped okay, for the most part, and made good progress when the race started to get serious.

He has been off the track since then, until a reappearance at the Midlands Grand National. That looked a superb warm-up. He travelled well, jumped well, made eye-catching progress and ran home strongly for 2nd.

You’d absolutely bank on a Willie Mullins horse to improve for that run under his belt. I’ve no doubt is going to be primed for a big run in the National.

The reasons to back him in 2023 also hold largely true in 2024. He remains a low-mileage 8-year-old, who showed tons of promise in his last four runs, but has only been seen a handful times over the last two seasons.

He’s 6lb higher this time, but that’s not a worry. He remains open to plenty of progress over these staying trips, especially with ground likely to suit.

I’m surprise to see such big prices on the exchanges available for him. I’d saw him closer to 12s. So, hopefully it’s second time lucky…

But if not, then I hope the Skelton trained mare Galia Des Liteaux can do the job! I’m not too fuzzed about the seemingly poor record for mares in the National. This is a changed race, easier fences, less runners, and I feel this test will suit the mare seriously well.

One has to take a leap of faith first though. She was a desperately disappointing beaten odds-on favourite in a Listed Mares Chase back in February. However, prior to that, she stayed on seriously strongly in a hot Handicap at Warwick, to finish 2nd over 3m 5f.

She’s a grinder, somewhat one paced, but with only 9 starts over fences, she’s lightly raced enough to believe there is more to come over marathon trips.

Galia Des Liteaux improved nicely this year in three of her four starts, only out of the money in the most recent Exeter run. Only once did she race beyond 3m 1f, and that we this seasons strong runner-up performance at Warwick.

There should be plenty of pace in this years National. On the current ground that will ensure a proper test of stamina. That could suit this mare to see her outrun her big price tag.

5pts win – Mr Incredible @ 18/1 (MB)
5pts win – Galia Des Liteaux @ 35/1 (SM)

……

6.00 Yarmouth: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

This looks an ideal opportunity for Berry Clever to get off the mark after a highly promising seasonal reappearance at Southwell recently.

He was significantly hampered soon after the start and couldn’t move closer to the pace as a result, which wasn’t ideal in that race. Nonetheless he travelled well into the straight and made initially quite strong progress against the dreaded inside rail.

One can forgive him for getting tired in the closing stages and you would hope he can improve from having this run under his belt, in any case.

Still winless, but the gelding was somewhat ‘unfortunate’ in a couple of his runs as a juvenile last season. There is enough in his profile to believe he’s capable of winning a race off his current mark. 63 could prove a little bit lenient, now that he also moves up in trip.

On turf, only his second run on grass, and over a mile, which often brings out improvement for Expert Eye offspring, and dropping into a slightly grade too, with De Sousa once again on board, he looks an intriguing horse in an open contest.

The rain is the one question mark I have, if it turns the ground properly soft. It’s that lingering doubt I have whether he’s get home in that case. But the pace may not be overly hot, so it’s worth the risk.

10pts win – Berry Clever @ 6/1 (SM/MB)

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 10th April 2024

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4.10 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

The market is dominated by unexposed horses who may or may not be well-handicapped. It makes the pace scenario also potentially muddling.

I feel in this context of the unknown, the rather well-known Johnston filly is underestimated here, given she’s likely to run a solid standard and has excuses for a 0/7 record.

Flowering’s last two runs were seriously eye-catching, in fact. She made the list on her penultimate run over this course and distance when locked in a pace battle and doing way too much way too soon, as the finishing speed % also suggested.

I think she did well to finish as close as she did to a well-handicapped winner who also enjoyed the run of the race. The run confirmed the promise Flowering showed in her previous Handicap runs, in my view.

However, perhaps even stronger was the impression the filly gave last time over this CD once again. In a slowly run race she found herself in the worst position over 3 furlongs out and got badly hampered entering the final bend, which didn’t help her positioning.

She still finished the race strongly, coming home faster than the winner, despite not being fully ridden in the final half furlong.

Left on the same mark, she should be a strong chance dropping back to 0-60 here. Joe Fanning is back on board and given this yard often goes forward, I doubt they’ll make the same mistake again as last time out and utilise the #3 draw.

This could turn into a slowly run race too, and then Flowering will be in prime position, I hope. Whether 12 furlongs prove her best trip remains to be seen. But unless someone else moves forward and sets a testing gallop, which seems unlikely, she should find this a perfect test.

10pts win – Flowering @ 7/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 8th April 2024

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5.20 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Sydney Bay caught the eye on his return from a break and wind op at this track over 6 furlongs last month.

He travelled off the pace on the outside off the pack, not getting the best of cover there. He seemed outpaced in this grade over this trip 3 furlongs out but also didn’t find the clearest passage before strolling home in eyecatching fashion in the final furlong.

That form looks rock solid and if he can improve for the run with his breathing fine, he should be here on Monday a big runner, for various reasons.

The 5-year-old gelding drops significantly in grade, down to 0-55 class, a race also restricted to horses without a win since the 2023 flat turf season. This is a poor contest, the fact a now 48 rated 10-year-old is one of fancied horses, says it all.

Sydney Bay is much more home on this lowly level, obviously. Saying that, down to a mark of 53, with the excellent help of 5lb claimer William Pyle, he’s probably quite well-handicapped here, if he stays the stiff 7 furlongs at Newcastle.

He won off 49 and 51 over 6 furlongs at this venue last October, and did well out of the weights off effectively 56 as a runner-up subsequently and achieved 51 and 52 speed ratings in those winning runs.

Moving up to 7 furlongs should suit, in theory. Ever since this horse came to my attention about two years ago, I thought he’d be much better if he moves to 7f, and possibly further. That hasn’t materialised, in reality, but he stayed on strongly over 6f at this stiff track, has the breeding and tried 6f+ outside maiden company only twice in his career.

Amaysmont and Crocodile Power look solid rivals in this field and both may also enjoy the run of the race toward the stands rail. I hope Sydney Bay will be ridden a bit more forward, though, tracking the pace a couple, as he showed in the past he’s suited to that (31/10/23, career-best performance).

10pts win – Sydney Bay @ 4/1

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers #2

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Flat Eyecatchers is a list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on turf and sand. Find all previous eyecatchers always here.

Porfin
19/03/24 – 7.30 Wolverhampton:

Quickly forward from the #8 draw to get to the lead upon entering the first turn. Set fast pace and always kept honest over a trip that stretches his stamina.

Has excuses for some of the last runs, either over too far or not quite an ideal run off marks possible close to what his truly is these days.

Will be highly competitive down to 6f in a race with good draw and suitable pace scenario in 0-55 class.

Sydney Bay
22/03/24 – 7.15 Newcastle:

Travelled off the pace and to the most part not well covered up. Appeared one-paced as the tempo picked up from 3f out. Although not quite the clearest of runs, had to switch and was tenderly handled after he found second wind from over 1f out for a brief moment.

Good return run from a wind operation. The run should put him spot on and give the horse confidence in his breathing, given how well he finished.

He’ll be down to a fair mark, especially if he drops back into 0-55. Ran a huge race off 56 in November and achieved solid speed ratings the two times prior when he went back to back wins.

Lilkian
22/03/24 – 3.45 Lingfield:

Stormed forward from wider than ideal draw. Did a lot in the early part and caught wide when locked in a battle for the lead. All the way going head to head in front and did well to stay up there for a long time.

Clearly hitting some form again, and additional help from handicapper can be expected. Loves it at Lingfield and Kempton over 6f.

Astral Beau
23/03/24 Doncaster – 1.20 Doncaster:

Led near side group. Quite keen in the first few furlongs. Did well to stay in front for as long as she did, always in the wind, whereas the winner was always nicely covered up. Ran home for solid second.

Had not often her preferred deep ground last year, but clearly best in proper soft conditions. Stays a mile, but perhaps a stiff 7f on deep ground is ideal.

Yet to run a really impressive speed rating given her Official Rating, but then she didn’t have too many opportunities in the right conditions. Hence one to keep an eye out, she should be capable to do so.

Grey’s Monument
23/03/24 Doncaster – 1.20 Doncaster:

Went left and bumped rival at the start. Quickly established a lead on the far side, made more than any other rival in the first two furlongs and had his head always right in the wind. Came under pressure 3f out and was a long way beaten, though did well to run home for 3rd.

Won Listed race when last seen in 2023. Gelded in the meantime. Two 90+ speed ratings achieved last season suggest he’s a proper horse and may be able to with some natural improvement for age see him develop into Group class.

Intriguing that blinkers were left off. Improvement came with it ever since first applied. If they are refitted, over a mile (also goes well over 7f) with some juice in the ground (best form good to soft), he’s one to back.

Harswell Duke + Lion Tower
23/03/24 – 2.25 Doncaster:

The two pace setter in the Spring Mile faded quite badly from two furlongs out but they were all the way through in the wind, especially Harswell Duke had to take most of it.

He won this race last year and has been in poor form ever since, although his September run at Southwell showed there is still something there. He’s not up to this level, but dropped to 72 now, he can race off a seriously nice mark wherever he goes next over a mile on proper soft ground.

Lion Tower has also fallen a long way in the mark. The handicapper has been a little less lenient, perhaps because he ran so well on his return at Newcastle back in February.

He’s got no chance to get home over a mile on soft ground. He’s not been expected in the betting in a while, too. Hence that February run is noteworthy. If he can find some decent ground, perhaps ideally over 7 furlongs, he’ll be dangerous soon.

One Night Thunder
23/03/24 – 3.35 Doncaster:

Quickly moved forward to lead the near side running right into the wind. Travelled quick well to 3f out when he kicked on and was in the mix until fading slowly from 2f out. Strong run in the circumstances.

Probably not quite good enough for this grade or his current mark, but will get help from handicapper, can move into lower grades and remains an intriguing type with low mileage and only 4 handicaps under his belt. Was an expensive £300k yearling.

Hasn’t fulfilled the promise yet but ran well as 3yo a couple of times suggesting he can win despite not having shown it on the clock yet. He had too few opportunities to properly shine. The dam did well as a 4-year old too. He may not mind a drop to 7f in soft conditions.

Parisiac
24/04/23 – 3.05 Doncaster:

Awkward start, cost early momentum but he quickly got into stride and marched forward to set fast pace locked in a pace battle. Did well to run well enough for long and showed nice attitude deep into the final furlong.

Was outclassed here. 5f with juice in the ground or 6f on practically any ground can work. Probably a flatter track for the 6f, something stiffer will see him to best effect over the minimum trip.

A consistent front-runner in the right grade. Ran 75 and 71 speed ratings last year and worth to wait for drop to class 5. Any help from the handicapper is a bonus.

The other early pace in this race, Blind Beggar is also one to note if he drops in class and mark in the next weeks.

Stressfree
24/04/24 – 3.40 Doncaster:

Travelled off the pace seriously well, going strongly approaching two furlongs out but had too much to do behind a winner who was seriously well handicapped and enjoyed the run of the race. Only over 2f out asked for full effort and the pace wasn’t overly hot.

Warrants an upgrade as he travelled and finished like a well-handicapped horse, and handicapper can’t be too harsh for a 1.5l defeat. Can be ridden further forward too.

Smart Family. Dam’s 5/9 offspring are stakes placed. Probably won’t enjoy fast ground. Best performance in this family with juice in the ground.

Birkenhead
25/04/24 – 7.30 Newcastle:

Set a decent gallop having to come somewhat across from the #2 draw. Kicked on and stayed inf nearly to the end. Only 1/4l beaten in the end. Super run. Clearly back in form.

Remains to be seen what the handicapper does. I’d be most interested see him on turf if he can find a dry day with fast ground, as unlikely that seems for the moment, worth to wait for.

A similar lowly race on the sand where the pace scenario is advantageous isn’t out of question, ideally not Newcastle.

Mums Tipple
27/04/24 – 7.00 Kempton:

Travelled in rear and not advantaged by that due to a slow pace. Eyecatching progress from over 3f out as he finished the final three furlongs fastest as well.

Strong run given the winner was much better positioned. Pulled hard in a slowly run race over 7f prior and was seriously unfortunate when held up from the widest draw and not getting in clear run while hard held.

He’s not done much on speed ratings for a while but I’d be intrigued to see him over 6 or 7f in a Listed event especially. He must be in serious form and should revert to more prominent tactics too.

Super Hit
28/03/24 – 7.30 Southwell:

Quickly forward, keen as he tracked the eventual leader. Was going alright and kicked on in the home straight. Hung badly 2f out but stuck gamely to the task and only beaten with half a furlong out.

Ran strong 69 speed rating but unlikely handicapper can be harsh for this run. Clearly has capabilities to be better than 71, nicely bred and improvement should come for stepping up to a mile, although 7f fine too, for now.

He needs to settle better and hopefully with experience this lightly raced colt can learn.

Berry Clever
28/03/24 – 7.30 Southwell:

Hampered soon after the start and couldn’t move closer to the pace as a result. Travelled well into the straight and made initially strong progress against the dreaded inside rail.

Tired from 1.5f out. Somewhat ‘unlucky’ in a couple of his runs as a juvenile. Should be capable of winning a race off his current mark. Interesting if he moves up to a mile as his breeding suggest more’s to come then. Ideally he could drop slightly in class to 0-65.

Digital
28/03/24 – 8.00 Southwell:

Moved keenly forward from the widest draw. Set a good pace that contributed to some good speed figures achieved in the race. Showed good attitude before getting really tired.

First run after a break and for a new yard. Ran to 71 and 70 speed ratings last season. Best over 5f. Good record on AW but also acts on turf and good record in the summer months.

Should get more help from handicapper and if he can drop into 0-75 with not much pace to compete could be too classy.

Eight Army + Old Chums
29/03/24 – 2.50 Chelmsford:

Widest draw and awkward away. Soon recovered and rushed forward. Lead as part of duo setting a seemingly rapid pace. Wasn’t able to keep it up. Seasonal reappearance.

Probably strong form, quite competitive race for this class. Ran well in hot races as a juvenile last autumn. Those races worked out rather well in the meantime.

Should be able to step up in trip and improve given his pedigree. Handicapper may drop him sufficiently and if he moves up into an easier race he’ll be of real interest.

Fellow pace setter Old Chums also stormed forward and it was impressive that he was able to keep going to finish second behind a well-handicapped winner.

He’s got experience and may reach his peak soon, but I feel there’s another win in him off his current mark in this grade over 6f but also may be able to stretch out to 7f. The dam won a Listed race over a mile and was highly prolific on both turf and the sand.

Magical Vision
30/03/24 – 4.40 Cork:

Travelled keenly in midfield early on, going well but stuck in a pocket behind the leaders and only inside the furlong got out. Looked bit awkward too but finished well.

Probably quite strong form. She was well backed too. Still low mileage. Ran some good ratings last year. A stiff finish brings out the best in her especially on soft ground.

Yosemite Valley
30/03/24 – 3.30 Cork:

Travelled quite well but was a bit in a pocket 1.5f out that meant at the most crucial stage he had to ever so slightly delay his run and get galvanized again for full effort. He finished strongly on his seasonal reappearance.

Career-best on speed ratings. Had some assignments last year but shaped with plenty of promise. Hang the race away on his final outing over 7f but he should be able to get home over that trip. Interesting on better ground too and should be able to win a Listed race.

Cavalier Approach
31/03/24 – 5.35 Southwell:

Part of the early pace before setting in third tracking closely. The pace was red hot and he was inevitably to fade but made strong headway from 3f out.

Excellent reappearance. Strong run when last seen at Newmarket, better than bare result. And excellent Hamilton win before. Maybe doesn’t like it quite heavy if he returns to turf. Loves stiff finishes.

If he could get some additional help from the handicapper he’ll be interesting in 0-70. Yet to fully convince on speed ratings but ran an 80 RPR at Hamilton. Usually quite consistent and up with the pace.