Tag Archives: Newcastle

Betting

Sunday Selections: 12th May 2024

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3.30 Longchamp: Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains, 1m

Obviously Henry Longfellow is the one I’m most interested in. One of my horses to follow this year (hardly an original thought, to be fair), he’s got the looks of a potential superstar.

Drawn in #6 the son of Dubawi won’t have many excuses today and I hope he just runs away with it. At the price, it’s hard to justify a bet, in a deep race, though.

Purely from a value perspective I must back Dancing Gemini, who will enjoy a low draw, a prominent racing position and has shown a significant amount of talent as a juvenile as well.

Reportedly having wintered well, connections were deliberate routing their star colt to Longchamp as opposed to Newmarket. Perhaps a wise move, given he should enjoy this test, with the draw and the way the race may pan out a lot better.

The son of Camelot is quite experienced already. Five runs, two wins and he improved significantly for his fist two career runs as well as racing more forward.

He hinted no uncertain amount of talent when sprinting away at Newbury with a first maiden success in August, before romping home in the Scotsman Stakes.

Perhaps committing too early in the Futurity Stakes, Dancing Gemini ran still with plenty of credit in a hot renewal back in October last year.

He’s shown to handle juice in the ground – important today. The step up in trip is sure to suit, given his pedigree, by Camelot and out of a daughter of Australia.

Given this pedigree, it seems noteworthy the tactical speed he showed last year. His talent is underpinned by a fine 73 debut speed rating in June and a strong 99 speed rating when he won at Doncaster.

The exchange prices are way over the top in my view, so I’m happy to back him against the favourite.

10pts win – Dancing Gemini @ 18/1

……..

4.17 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

With the pace chart somewhat muddling, I feel it can be worth to side with proven and happy front-runner Jean Baptiste, who ran incredibly well from the front a fortnight ago at Ayr to finish a gallant 2nd.

No certainty that he can confirm that strong performance, but back on the sand where some of his best career efforts came over the years, especially this CD (regardless of what the naked record says, on speed ratings he ran really well in higher grades here).

Two pounds up and he loses the valuable claim of Jonny Peate today, compared to Ayr, that’s not ideal. But still 3lb below his last winning mark on turf, and the same 79 rating as when an excellent second two years ago over this course and distance.

Jean Baptiste is value at current prices in my book, well capable to outrun the odds in an open race that lacks quality. He’s drifting, though, which isn’t a good sign for this type of horse, to be fair.

10pts win – Jean Baptiste @ 11.5/1

…….

3.07 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Favourite Cross The Tracks looks well drawn but not sure why he’s so short, as the drop in trip doesn’t look ideal and he’s 8lb worth off in the weights than last time.

Yes, that came in a hot class 2 Handicap, so he’s shown a bit of class. But not on speed ratings yet. At that price I’m happy to take him on.

Mr Wonderful and Oakland Princess look intriguing opposition here. If race fit, the Amo Racing gelding could prove better than a 77 rating on his handicap debut.

However, I’m most intrigued by the filly, Oakland Princess, who can race here off a feather weight and should have plenty more to offer.

I felt it was significant that she didn’t take up her entry at Nottingham yesterday, in a race I thought she had a strong chance. Instead she comes here.

The filly ran with plenty of credit on her Handicap debut over this course and distance earlier this month. But she didn’t get a clean run through, was badly stopped in her progress at 1.5f from home, but got going again and finished well under hands and heels.

She appeared still raw in the early stages of the race. With the added experience, and hopefully a clear run today, she’s in with a shot. The draw isn’t ideal, away from the early pace, but Sam James shouldn’t have too much trouble to get across quickly to track the lead.

10pts win – Oakland Princess @ 8/1

…….

5.27 Newcastle: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f

It seems worth to take a chance on Curran in an open race back over the course and distance of his very first career win.

You can forgive his seasonal reappearance at Doncaster in deep ground where he made way too much too soon in any case, in a what was a competitive Handicap, too.

This is easier. There’s competition for the lead from the favourite, but that may well suit, in fact, as Curran can track the pace, as he did when he won twice last year.

Todays run will also be his second after having been gelded over the winter. You’d hope to see a significantly improved performance compared to Doncaster.

10pts win – Curran @ 17/2

Betting

Friday Selections: 29th March 2024

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It’s already a few days ago, but hey, you’ve got to celebrate the winners. It was the first one I could cheer home in a while – granted I had about a handful of bets in the last half year.

Anyway, it was great to see Qitaal win rather comfortably in the end, despite a dramatic drift to 14/1 SP. I was stuck with my 7’s, but that’s no issue at all. Even that represented significant value in my book.

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2.40 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

Cephalus looks a seriously poor favourite in this race at such a short price (2/1 at time of writing). He’ll be held up from the #10 draw in a race without much pace and he’s got a bit to find on speed ratings as he’s turned out under a penalty.

The 5-year old improved dramatically over the last weeks and months, winning four and going close twice. This is a different proposition, though, especially off 81 in a race that won’t be run to suit him.

The way the race is likely going to shape, and with his love for the track, Shoot To Kill looks one who may steel this one from the front for Ireland and represents serious value in my mind.

He moved over to Ado McGuinness in early March and ran with plenty of courage in two subsequent starts, both times catching the eye and clearly proving there’s plenty of life in the seven-year-old gelding.

Those were hard races and that’s a bit of a concern. But at the same they may have put him right for this race. He was highly competitive and consistent prior moving to Ireland as well.

Shoot To Kill certainly loves it here at Lingfield. Check out his course record, peel back the first layer and you’ll find a lad who’s ran some huge performances from 7-10 furlongs at this venue not too long ago.

No doubt, his optimum is a mile over this course and distance, though. He won a class 5 Handicap over this CD back in September off 74, running to a 75 speed rating which he franked weeks later over 7 furlongs at the same venue when finishing a strong third.

That mile win looks better than bare form would suggest, given it was only a class 5. His current mark – 78 – with a 3lb claimer in the saddle, gives him a shout over this course and distance, though.

He won a class 3 Handicaps in the past here, and ran his three career-best speed ratings at Lingfield, the two highest over a mile. Taking into account that he looks to hit some good form, it’s not impossible to think he’s able to run to that sort of level again.

But maybe he doesn’t even have to be that good on Friday. The pace should favour those who are ridden forward and it’s unlikely to be overly hot.

Given that, Shoot To Kill should be easily able to overcome the #7 draw and should find himself in prime position as he slings around the final bend.

Shoot To Kill 10pts win – @ 13/1

……..

3.35 Newcastle: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

Not out of question that Cover Up, who’s bidding for a four-timer, can pull out more, even after a hefty 13lb hike for his most recent win at this venue, albeit over the minimum trip.

Though, moving up in trip is a question mark. The dam stayed a mile but her sole victory came over 5 furlongs. He ran a super 90 speed rating last time out. On balance, given he could get a nice lead into the finish as well given his draw and the likely pace, he’s a fair favourite – one that’s beatable, at the same time.

Batal Dubai looks well places from his #9 draw and given there isn’t too much pace competition, could enjoy the run of the race. He’s fairly handicapped, although hardly has much in hand. He always struggled so far to win once he hit the 90s.

Albasheer’s last two winning performances here at Newcastle were brilliant on speed ratings: 102 and 100 – that’s a Group horse. A 110 mark in this type of competitive handicap is also quite a steep task.

He looks well drawn and looks slightly overpriced. I have some question marks because that last huge effort only came a fortnight ago.

The one I feel who’s potentially quite well-handicapped in the context of this race is 7-year-old gelding Misty Grey.

The #5 draw gives him enough options to get a good, prominent position early on, tracking the pace, wherever it develops, given he has a bit of early speed as well.

He clearly showed a return to form in two runs earlier this month after he moved to the David O’Meara yard. The second of those runs came on the 9th of March, hence that hopefully is enough time to recover.

I felt both runs were eyecatching and warranted a slight upgrade, as much as they also suggested a mark off 96 might underestimate him at this point in his career.

At Wolverhampton in a 7f Listed race last time out Misty Grey had to give weight away to higher rated horses and it wasn’t ideal to concede first run to the eventual winner at 2f out, at the most crucial part of that race.

Days earlier at Newcastle, again over 7f, he pulled hard early on and basically tanked his way to the front. He travelled sweetly for a long time before coming under pressure and possibly also got ever so slightly impacted by a faller around the final furlong marker.

Both runs suggested he could do with a drop to stiff 6f…. hello Newcastle I hear you calling? This is his third run since a break and since moving to the David O’Meara yard and he should be primed what will only bis his second run over 6f in over a year – the last time he finished an excellent third in a hot Kempton Conditions race.

The grey gelding wasn’t rated so lowly in over three years, and as explained before, there is solid evidence based on the last two runs, that he’s hitting some strong form. At given prices he seems quite a bit overpriced.

Misty Grey – 10pts win @ 16/1

……..

4.40 Newcastle: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

It’s difficult not to like how Dear My Friend won his last three races since his return as a gelding and from wind operation. A changed horse, so to speak.

Four from four on the All-Weather now, and there s every chance he’s got still much more to offer. For all that he has to prove his lofty rating on speed ratings yet.

He may not have to do so here, as the pace falls right into his lap, if he wants it. He’s also a pretty fair price, at 7/2 currently, very much one I’d consider to back.

However, from a value perspective I just can’t look past Tempus. He’s not getting any younger and was beaten by My Dear Friend back in January. However the race and certainly pace scenario will play out differently this time, and so is the weights difference between the two.

Tempus is also drawn close to My Dear Friend, and may well track him all the way from his #2 draw. Usually also forward, he should equally enjoy the run of the race.

The handicapper has given him an opportunity as well. Dropped him to 102, despite three notable performances this year. He’s not been that low since winning a competitive Ascot Handicap in July 2022.

There is no question that Tempus remains in strong form, though, because he ran a joint career-best (and best on AW) speed rating at Kempton in January on his comeback run. He missed the break that day but finished very strongly as he kicked on nicely from 3f out in a good listed contest.

He fared best from those up with the pace subsequently at Newcastle when he was beaten by My Dear Friend eventually. Another strong performance. And was then a bit too keen when locked in a pace battle in a Listed race at Cagnes last month, where he was still ahead with only 1.5f to go, though.

I feel from a handicapping perspective and pace scenario Tempus got a significant chance to outrun his big price tag here.

10pts win – Tempus @ 23/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 22nd March 2024

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7.15 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

I’m more than happy to take on Glamourous Express who’s turned out under a penalty here after an impressive victory at Kempton last week.

Hugh Taylor seems sweet on this lad, and that’s something to be taken seriously. But off 67 today, over 6f, he’s vulnerable. He’s never ran a significant speed rating beyond the minimum trip to suggest he’s well-handicapped in these conditions.

Captain Vallo could be interesting if there’s a generous pace today. But better days may await for such scenario. Water Of Leith is one to fear in this grade. But at current prices I’ll take a punt on Dream Together off bottom weight.

This is his third run since coming back from a long enough break. He ran better than bare forms suggest in his two starts since then and showed a solid attitude, suggesting there’s life.

The pace scenario will suit today. He should be able to to just sit off The Gay Blade and hopefully can kick on from about 2f out. I can see a scenario play out where he could be hard to beg back with his low weight if he can get separation from the main pack.

Dream Together’s All-Weather record is poor. However, he ran 51 and 54 speed ratings last year over this course and distance. He’s allowed to run off 51 now, a career-lowest mark on sand.

That gives him every chance to outrun his price tag today, at the very least. He should be well placed when it matters most.

10pts win – Dream Together @ 10.5/1

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7.30 Dundalk: Handicap, 1m

Intriguing and rather competitive race. A bunch of these met a over the last weeks, hence plenty of collateral form exist, for what it’s worth.

I think not too many will be in this to win tonight, though. Shoot To Kill ran with plenty of promise on his debut for the McGuinness yard. He may find an easier race soon, is my feeling.

Rampage looks in good form and his finish here two weeks ago was noteworthy. He has a tough Irish Lincoln run in his legs, though.

Rockbury Lad impressed visually and on the clock over this CD two weeks ago. Betting suggests today isn’t his day.

Skontonovski will be in the mix, but doesn’t appear overly well-handicapped. Neither – certainly not over this trip -looks favourite Exquisite Acclaim, who is in strong form, but has to defy a high enough handicap mark as a result.

The standout for me in this field is the aptly named Not Forgotten. He caught the eye a number of the times this winter on the Dundalk polytrack.

He remains on the same 79 mark after a strong 3rd place effort two weeks ago over this course and distance.

As often before, he wasn’t the sharpest away from the gate but made rapid progress soon after, and that may cost on the day vital fuel that was missing in the final furlong.

The 4-year-old travelled notably well, though, and made smooth progress from 4f out. If only he could get out of the gates a tiny bit better and perhaps keep his focus in the closing stages.

Good news, the visor is on. That appears the right move and could help him to find the necessary couple of pounds improvement tonight. He’s generally still low enough mileage in handicaps to hope for a little bit better.

Off a 79 handicap mark there is plenty of room for one or two more wins in him, given his profile.

10pts win – Not Forgotten @ 4/1

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Friday Selections: 10th November 2023

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6.20 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Competitive affair. Comedian Leader looks possibly overpriced back over this course and distance but the way the pace shapes and the new headgear combination is a worry for me.

Favourite Capuchinero won last time out with a bit in hand. A 5lb penalty makes life much harder, though. She never won off such a high mark and has to improve on speed ratings a handful of pounds too.

Haworth Star is the one most intriguing. Drawn wide, perhaps away from where the race develops in a slowly run race isn’t ideal one would think.

But making a move on that far side from a wide draw seems not too detrimental at Newcastle at all, so possibly negates conventional wisdom.

In any case, the lightly-raced gelding shaped like he’s significantly ahead of his mark when third at Wolverhampton last time out. The handicapper took notice and gave him a 2lb rise for the effort. Probably not enough.

That day he wasn’t quite the sharpest early on from gate 7, pulled quite hard in a tight and compact field as he tried to settle riding against the inside rail off the pace.

Yet, approaching the home straight he was still on the bridle, although he equally had a lot to do from the back of the field. He made strong progress, finding gaps as they appeared, without ever getting a smooth and clear run.

He appeared awkward and possibly intimidated in a tight finish deep inside the final furlong. Though, it was quite tight and the race was over at that stage no matter what, I reckon. Haworth Star also managed to run to a 61 speed rating, despite in less than ideal circumstances here.

Big odds suggested there weren’t high hopes riding on his back that day or eleven days earlier on handicap debut. The improvement from that Leicester run off a small break as well, was noteworthy in its own right.

Today is an easier race. This is only his third run in handicap company. This straight track may suit better than the ever turning Wolverhampton. He finished the strongest last time out, despite meeting trouble. So the stiff 7f could be exactly the test he wants, as long as they don’t crawl, which is a risk, truth told.

10pts win – Haworth Star @ 11/2

Betting

Friday Selections: 3rd November 2023

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5.15 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Newyorkstateofmind drops down to the minimum trip today, at Newcastle, off a fair mark – this looks like an ideal test with a solid pace expected, to help him settle and finish strongly.

The 6-year-old gelding is fully exposed, however, has ran only once over this course and distance, earlier this year, and finished a strong third off 3lb higher in a race that wasn’t run at a rapid clip.

His last two runs over 6 furlongs were highly encouraging, though, and he seems to hit strong form. Todays race is competitive but on speed ratings he’s the one I have come out on top, if he runs to form.

Especially after two eye-catching efforts in the last two weeks over 6 furlongs.

At Lingfield, when last seen, he couldn’t quite get to the pace early on and settled near midfield, though he also showed signs of keenness. A good pace and shorter trip should suit today, hence.

He then made strong progress from 3f out and made a gigantic effort toward the dreaded inside rail at Lingfield to even contest the lead over 1f out, before inevitably getting tired.

He was well-fancied that day, perhaps also related to the huge effort prior to it, at Wolverhampton. With that in mind, there is a danger that he can’t run to the same level a third time in this short pace of time.

But I feel the pace, the trip and the stiff finish will suit him really well, being also drawn in and around the pace, he can then track, and granted a clear run, should be able to finish strongly.

10pts win – Newyorkstateofmind @ 7/1

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers 2023: #3

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous lists here.

Thaki
08/05/23 – 8.45 Newcastle:

Drawn away from the pace, awkward start, trailed and had a wall of horses to pass over two furlongs out. Picked his way through to field as he quickened nicely, before getting quite tired in the final furlong.

Ran well prior at Ayr as well in a good race where the winner was well-handicapped. Not the best starter. Won off 67 on the All-Weather and a neck beaten off 65 back in March. Ran well nto in hot class 4 race as well, but possibly not quite up to that level.

Down to 63 on a good mark. Has scope on turf, especially on decent ground placed 4 of 6 and may be underestimated there without a W on turf yet, though.

Race Replay

Ticket To Alaska
08/05/23 – 5.20 Southwell:

Crossed over quickly from a wide draw to lead, although always pestered and pressured. Travelled well but ultimately beaten by a well-handicapped winner from off the pace.

Two good runs since return from a break. Showed promise as a juvenile, ran to 63 speed rating. Doubtful that he stays beyond 7 furlongs. Full-brother did his best work over 6f and won over the minimum trip as well.

Possibly scope for some improvement if he drops in trip, on fast ground on turf. In other circumstances probably found his ceiling.

Race Replay

Basholo
08/05/23 – 2.25 Ayr:

Led the field on far side. Was going well until 2f out, under pressure fought gamely all the way to the line, just tired in the closing stages.

Down to career-lowest mark. Bit unlucky lto. In excellent form. Poor record 1/20. Probably best over 5f, but 6f on fast ground not impossible.

Didn’t get home over 6f at stiff Hamilton when seen next time after going hard following a hot pace.

Race Replay

Winforglory
13/05/23 – 1.50 Lingfield:

Tracked hot early pace. Did way too much too soon and also quite keen. Impressive how he was still able to kick on and challenge for the win, less than two lengths beaten in 3rd eventually.

Bit unfortunate lto at Chelmsford. Strong run there too. Ran 75 speed rating here, which was also a hot race for the grade. May not stay a mile, but looks clearly capable to win off current mark and should be some pounds better.

Race Replay

Swiss Pride
13/05/23 – 4.10 Lingfield:

Settled off the pace, which was a disadvantage. Had loads to do 3f out and finished wide. Came home much the strongest, the only one who ran sub 12s the final furlong.

Must be in good form now. Down to sexy mark. Would be really interesting on fast turf as he may be underestimated there due to his record. However he runs well in those conditions, now 11lb lower than when last seen on turf.

Race Replay

Malham Tarn Cove
13/05/23 – 6.40 Leicester:

Travelled quite well for a long time. Solid progress from 2f out, challenged the long-term leader. Got pretty tired in the final furlong.

Probably strong form and run due to the winner and second. Left on the same mark. Interesting on better ground. Dam did all her best work on soft but sire was tp-class on fast. He doesn’t seem to have a high knee action.

If the ground can bring out improvement he’ll be well-handicapped. Wouldn’t rule out a drop in trip either.

Race Replay

Azure Angel
15/05/23 – 7.05 Windsor:

Tracked the honest pace. Travelled strongly and good progress to hit the front over one furlong out. Tired in the closing stages.

Comeback run. Probably needed it. Also may prefer better ground. Very impressive when last seen as a juvenile. Clocked strong speed rating. 6f may be her optimum.

Race Replay

Imperial Khan
15/05/23 – 2.50 Catterick:

Tracked the pace throughout. Was going well and looked like coming with a big challenge from 2f out. Jockey seemed to keep waiting and waiting before asking for all, riding hands and heels. Suddenly it was too late as things became really tight in the final furlong and the horse was squeezed out.

With a clear run would have gone seriously close. Has been dropped 2lb in the meantime. Down to a career-lowest and obvious interest the next time.

Race Replay

John Kirkup
15/05/23 – 4.20 Catterick:

Tracked leaders against the inside rail where it became a bit tight around the bend which impeded him somewhat. Kept up to his work but didn’t find a gap to go through.

Third run off a break. Clearly in form. Down to excellent mark. Ran fine speed ratings last autumn. 5f with cut in the ground ideal, but stays 6f and acts on better ground as well.

Ran well nto in the meantime but conditions not totally to suit and bumped into a well-handicapped winner.

Race Replay

The Muffin Man
16/05/23 – 6.00 Wetherby:

Not the sharpest at the start from a wide draw, a bit impeded soon after. Outpaced early on, travelled well of the pace. Good progress in the home straight although not the clearest run until late.

Clearly needs to move up to 1m as pedigree suggests as well. Ran twice the trip before and was unfortunate. Still lightly raced.

Race Replay

Golden Rainbow
16/05/23 – 7.30 Wetherby:

Tracked the pace closely in second place. Challenged leader from over 2f out and possibly ahead at final furlong marker. Horses from further back got the better of him eventually. Strong run and probably strong form.

Had wind operation prior. Down to good 63 mark and can win in possibly slightly less competitive race. Better over 5f and may prefer AW surface but didn’t have too many opportunity over the minimum trip on fast ground, which bay be ideal.

Race Replay

Hail Sezer
16/05/23 – 7.30 Wetherby:

Travelled notably well in midfield. Strong progress in the home straight but was stuck behind horses in front of him. Switched to the inside over 1f out and ran on well.

Can’t be too harshly assessed by the handicapper for this. Not unexposed but won two of his last four and arguably unlucky here in strong race. Clearly able to win off 71, ideally 6f on fast ground.

Race Replay

Bluebell Time
16/05/23 – 2.40 Chepstow:

Tracked the leader closely and eventually made strong move from over 2f out to grab the lead. Only beaten late by horses from further back and more ridden toward the centre/stands’ side.

Strong run and probably good form. Down another 2lb since then. Well-handicapped over the minimum trip now on anything not fast; bonus a bit of cut in the ground.

Race Replay

Makeen
18/05/23 – 6.55 Newmarket:

Traveled strongly behind a wall of horses for much of the race. Waited for room until very late when switched to the inside and ran on easily for third.

Near career-best effort without a clear run. Clearly in peak form. Otherwise not obviously well-handicapped. But interesting if turned out within the next two weeks, ideally on fast ground.

Probably 7f ideal and is then pretty ground independent, but clearly stays a mile too, especially on fast ground if the pace isn’t all out. If he doesn’t return soon under ideal conditions soon, one to keep in mind to see if he can drop a couple of pounds and wait for the money to arrive.

Race Replay

My Mate Mike
18/05/23 – 3.10 Salisbury:

Moved quickly forward to lead, setting a hot pace. Clearly did too much in the first half of the race. Did well to hold on for third.

Strong race and form. Multiple lto winners and horses in strong form in the field. has been given an opportunity by the handicapper as dropped 1lb subsequently. Lightly raced and deserves a chance over 6f.

Race Replay

Red Allure
19/05/23 – 6.15 Hamilton:

Move forward from the outside draw to push the pace. Was there until very late in the day.

Perhaps slightly flattered by the way the race developed but it wasn’t an advantage on the day to go from the low gates. Clear return to form. Dropped a pound for this. Chance given over minimum trip and all ground.

Race Replay

Yellow Lion
20/05/23 – 2.05 Newmarket:

Bit keen early on, travelled strongly throughout but without cover on the outside. Good progress from 3f out to just hit the front over one furlong from home. Tired rapidly.

Handicap debut. Probably needs drop to 6f. Didn’t have many chances on decent ground yet which may be ideal for him.

Race Replay

Betting

Monday Selections: 8th May 2023

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Frustrating Sunday. Frustrating weekend… would, could, should. Al Husn and Up And Under solid 2nd place efforts. Although, it was a poor ride by Mikey Sheehy in the Derby Trial.

The pace wasn’t hot and he gave the colt way too much to do. Al Husn ran well but had no chance with the winner. I think she should be capable of winning a Group 3 over 10 furlongs, though, and remains on my list.

Remarquee never seemed to travel and was beaten before the 1000 Guineas approached the halfway mark. Mawj, who I mentioned in the preview as “a danger I seriously rate”, won in a thrilling finish. Of course I left her unbacked.

Sir Benedict was the “cherry on the cake”. Not. Yes. I’m talking through my pocket, and of course the horse is one who finds trouble consistently. But there were ways to avoid it here. Callum Rodriguez made every effort to ensure he finds the trouble today. Disappointing.

Well, it could have a been a sensational weekend. It wasn’t. The winner on Saturday helps to even things out, to the most part. On to Monday….

…….

7.15 Windsor. Class 5 Handicap, 5f

I am prepared to give Concierge another chance after his solid but ultimately uncompetitive effort at Yarmouth last month. I backed him that day, despite some reservations given the surface and trip.

He moves up in grade but drops down in trip. I don’ think this race is overly competitive, so I’m not concerned about the class. However, I do fancy him over the minimum trip, especially with cut in the ground.

He’s a course and distance winner as well and has dropped another pound, down to a mark of 65. That’s only a pound off the 64 speed rating he achieved back in March at Kempton – although that was on the sand.

Nonetheless, that run clearly showed he’s still well capable to run to a competitive level in these lower grade.

That day Concierge was a serious eyecatcher as he travelled at the back of the field. Made really good progress on the inside and showed multiple accelerations from mid-race right onward to finish the fastest from 4f out.

He couldn’t follow-up at Chelmsford, but travelling wide throughout, chasing the pace, was the reason why he dropped out badly in the closing stages.

As mentioned before I do forgive him the Yarmouth run, too. Deep ground and 6 furlongs – it was an error of judgement on my part. This test here will suit perfectly.

10pts win – Concierge @ 8/1

………

8.45 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

A competitive race on the sand for this class with many chances, but that helps to drive the price for Bayraat to a point where it’s impossible to ignore him.

He drops down to 0-65 level here after he ran with tons of credit on his seasonal reappearance at Southwell in a slightly tougher race over 7 furlongs five weeks ago.

He crossed over from the #8 draw to lead the field early, before following closely the leader, doing so a little bit too keenly. He hung in the closing stages, but ran on nicely at the same time.

That performance was in line with the one that caught my eye for the first time back in November last year at Newcastle over 6f when he was lightly bumped after the start, quickly moved forward and found plenty under pressure from 2 furlongs out. That form looks solid.

You can easily forgive him a subsequent poor showing (15/11) over 7 furlongs as he was restraint at the back of the field and never in the race.

He only made his belated handicap debut at Southwell and appears off potentially well handicapped now off 65 as he drops into an easier race as well as moving down in trip.

6 furlongs with a stiff finish such as here at Newcastle may well be an ideal scenario. On his only course and distance run he was a strong runner-up. The winner that day ran well in class 3 company off 83 subsequently, whereas third and fourth placed horses have won in the meantime.

10pts win – Bayraat @ 8.5/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 5th May 2023

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One from three, Totnes saved the day with a late charge to win ultimately with authority, though. The wide draw was a concern and he had to come from last to first on the wide outside. Thankfully he had too much in hand. He was well backed as well (6/4 SP).

Far From A Ruby was disappointing. However, I wouldn’t lose faith. Perhaps she was too keen, perhaps the ride was too aggressive, as the sectionals look fast, if they can be believed. She’ll have her day in the sun sooner rather than later.

Compere ran well but didn’t have any excuses. Perhaps the race was more competitive as I gave it credit. In any case, he wasn’t quite good enough.

We’re in May, a couple of days away from the first Classic of the season. Yet, here I am having another three selections for Newcastle on Friday after those two runners at Chelmsford on Thursday.

……….

7.55 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Intriguing contest largely due to some unexposed horses that could improve for experience and their handicap debut.

More exposed than most here but still open to improvement off her current mark is Bella Kopella. She caught the eye the last time over 7 furlongs here at Newcastle:

She was early up with the pace, before tracking the leader who set a solid pace. She made stylish progress from over 2f out as she moved forward and travelled like the winner. Perhaps she did too much in the middle part of the race as she tired badly in the final furlong.

The form of the race is up for debate, however, she won really well four weeks earlier over the same CD, also travelling powerfully in the middle of the race.

Nonetheless, she finished not particularly strongly that day either. Both times off a hot pace, though. She has shown good cruising speed, hence the drop to 6 furlongs looks possibly ideal, especially here at Newcastle.

Bella Kopella was progressive as a juvenile, is clearly an experienced filly at this stage, but looks still open to more improvement, as she ran to a 59 speed rating lto when she won in March, in a race that worked out really well in the meantime.

10pt win – Bella Kopella @ 15/2

……

8.25 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Macho Pride is a standout in this field. He looks seriously well handicapped on his second run for the Ruth Carr yard.

He ran with plenty of credit on the All-Weather during the winter months and showed positive signs the last two runs as well. Soft ground was never to suit when last seen, but there as well as prior over this CD he showed excellent early speed and enthusiasm for the game.

Especially two back, his 8th place finish was a much better run than the bare form may suggest. It was strong race, and as a reference performance for his form it’s really promising.

He drops into a much easier race here on the sand now and showed also on the clock some solid performances in the not too distance past. Last season when he ran three times to speed ratings of 57+, in December he ran to 56 and February 54, both times over 6 furlongs at Newcastle.

It’s pretty obvious that he is seriously well weighted off 54 now, if in peak form, which I imagine his last two runs have helped to get him ready for.

10pts win – Macho Pride @ 9/1

……..

9.00 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Beneficiary looks so ready and has found the perfect race, I firmly believe. He ran a massive race in February over 6 furlongs at Newcastle, when he came to my attention, and he should really benefit from the drop to the minimum trip.

Back then he moved forward, pushed a good pace as part of a duo initially, before he grabbed the lead 2f out, still ahead approaching final furlong but then tired rapidly.

It was a strong performance in a very strong race and he followed up with another strong run from the front when last seen. He tends to be keen and go off to hard over 6 furlongs, hence the drop to 5f will be helpful.

He drops into a much easier race here and has been given additional help from the handicapper as well. He ran to a 63 speed rating in January, so a mark off 60 offers a great chance.

The fact there is plenty of pace here should be a bonus. He doesn’t have to lead, but rather can follow the front-runners and wait for the right moment to kick on as he has stamina for an additional furlong.

10pts win – Beneficiary @ 7/2

Eyecatchers

Eyecatchers #10

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the All-Weather and turf. Find all previous lists here.

Apache Star
06/03/23 – 5.30 Wolverhampton:

Quickly overcame his wide draw to move forward and grab the lead. Pushed a fast pace, going hard early on, while pestered on the outside. Still ahead approaching the final furlong and only went down late.

Excellent run off a career-lowest mark. Ran twice to higher speed ratings on the All-Weather. Clearly in shape to win again. Only one win from 19 runs is a poor return, though.

Didn’t always have luck with the draw latest. Has speed for minimum trip as well. Big chance wherever he goes next with a good draw and if he can dominate from the front. (huge nto performance 08/04 in hot race)

Race Replay

Watermelon Sugar
07/03/23 – 4.00 Lingfield:

Held up in last, going strongly as the field turned for home. Good progress against inside rail but momentum stopped, didn’t get a run until switched late to finish seriously well nearly hard held.

Held back in last races. Normally, if on a going day, right up with the pace. Seems to have speed for minimum trip but probably best over 6 furlongs.

Interesting on the All-Weather with money and a good draw; otherwise clearly one to monitor for the first weeks back on turf (subsequent run 28/03 ca be excused due to poor start).

Race Replay

Gatwick Kitten
07/03/23 – 5.10 Lingfield:

Tracked the pace going well on the inside where he came challenging from two furlongs out, before having his momentum stopped by shifting rival who closed the gap.

Comeback run, and first start for new yard. Looks in fine form. Did improve in the past for reappearance. Appears to be fairly handicapped on last seasons form.

Any improvement to come out of the yard change will see him have a cracking chance, especially back on turf over 5-6 furlongs. He loves it over the 5.5f at Brighton in particular (something seemed amiss next time out 28/03, also over 7f; somewhat worrying but will give him the chance).

Race Replay

Broughtons Flare
08/03/23 – 4.30 Lingfield:

Seriously keen the first half of race race, travelling wide, without cover. It was impressive to see him still able to finished the fastest over the last tree furlongs from off the pace.

Remains in strong form. Won three times earlier this year. Not desperately well handicapped on speed ratings off current mark, but a drop to 7 furlongs would be really interesting, if not a mile with a good pace to aim at.

Otherwise one to wait for, to drop a couple of pounds (ignore next time 25/03 over 8.5f, not the right trip).

Race Replay

Lion Ring
08/03/23 – 5.35 Kempton:

Moved quickly forward from wide draw, travelled on the outside, pushing the pace. Outpaced from over two furlongs out but gutsy and finished well to the line in hot race. Ran career-best speed rating

Was 2lb out of the weights. Recently claimed from Ireland. Ran well many times over there, but remains a maiden after 29 starts.

He can win if he drops down to class 6 over 6f I firmly believe as he may find these lower races in the UK easier (15/8 favourite nto, touched rail, short of room, odd run, can be excused).

Race Replay

Concierge
08/03/23 – 5.35 Kempton:

Travelled the back of the field. Made really good progress on the inside, showed multiple accelerations from mid-race right onward to finish the fastest from 4f out.

Excellent comeback run. He’s down to a good mark. Can be slowly away but judged on last years turf campaign, especially the first half, he is now handicapped to win soon, especially as he showed here to be in brilliant form. (nto 25/03 to be ignored; wait for return to turf).

Race Replay

Pillar Of Hope
09/03/23 – 6.15 Newcastle:

Alertly away, disputed the lead, until coming under pressure from 2 furlongs out. Kept going well before fading inside the final furlong.

Comeback run. Won twice on his return before. Probably better on turf and over 10 furlongs. Career-best in September at Redcar, when he ran to 86 speed rating. One to keep an eye out for turf in a few weeks time.

Race Replay

Piranheer
09/03/23 – 1.15 Southwell:

Poor start from #1 draw, soon detached in rear and plenty to do. Motored home from three furlongs out to finish the fastest, doing so rather easily under hands and heels.

Looks one who’s prepared for a specific day. One to monitor in the betting; judged on this form he’s certainly able to win off his current mark if the handbrake is off.

Race Replay

Love Destiny
10/03/23 – 8.30 Kempton:

Up with the good pace early on travelling wide, before settling in 2nd/3rd tracking a few lengths off. Going okay turning for home but came under severe pressure and seemingly going backwards from 2f out. Impressive how he fought back to finish 4th.

Looks to hit form. Drop in grade helped as well. Lost another 3lb on his official rating, and clearly down to dangerous mark. Possibly one ready to strike soon over 7f in similar race.

Race Replay

Kitbag
13/03/23 – 6.30 Wolverhampton:

Right up with the early and hot pace from his wide draw; was the only one who kept going in the final furlong, bar the strongly finishing favourite from off the pace.

Not exactly lightly raced. But chance given by handicapper now, and offers scope to move up in trip given his pedigree. Would be especially interesting over 7f (excellent nto 2nd place effort over 6f again, strong form possibly).

Race Replay

Nordic Glory
17/03/23 – 7.30 Wolverhampton:

Travelled in midfield, going okay and possibly poised for challenge turning for home when carrying his head awkwardly. Appeared short of room a number of times too, but kept going well. Finished seriously strongly nto (31/03) when in rear and wide.

Clearly hitting strong form. Will be big runner soon; back over 5 or 6f on turf also interesting. Still winless on grass but ran career best speed rating last summer at Goodwood. Probably best on decent ground.

Race Replay

Motagally
18/03/23 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

Awkward away from widest draw, bumped by rival; settled in rear but seriously keen. Good progress from the back of the field against the inside rial in the home straight.

Normally 7f too far. Hasn’t shown much for nearly two years, although somewhat unlucky in final run last year. The way he finished here suggests he’s close to hitting some proper form.

Intriguing if he can find a 6f race on turf with decent to fast ground.

Race Replay

My Little Tip
24/03/23 – 6.30 Dundalk:

Went quickly forward from the widest draw to dispute early- then chase the pace. Bit flat footed over 2f out but ran on well for 4th without able to match pace of winner.

Ran well this winter at Dundalk. Down to good mark now, especially on turf over 7f. Ideally decent ground but anything good to soft to good to firm that’s not on the extremer side should be fine.

Race Replay

Apprentice
24/03/23 – 7.30 Dundalk:

Up with the pace early on from the widest draw. Travelling widest throughout, not an economical ride. Tried to apply pressure from 3f out but didn’t have pace to match of speedier rivals. Ran well to the line nonetheless.

Lightly raced, only second Handicap start. Half-sister needed 10 furlongs to win. Looks on the small size. One to monitor for the step up in trip into an easier race. Betting will also determine when she tries.

Race Replay

Macho Pride
24/03/23 – 7.15 Newcastle:

Pushed the past as part of duo until he hit the front briefly 2f out, then tired rapidly, although didn’t fully collapse and showed encouraginging signs as he went hard the first couple of furlongs.

Solid performances in recent months with ever threatening. Rewarded with a lovely mark now, ready for a 6f turf sprint on decent ground.

Well-handicapped in those conditions as he confirmed he’s probably still capable to run to the sort of level he showed last season when he ran three times to speed ratings of 57+.

Race Replay

Beau Jardine
25/03/23 – 4.40 Lingfield:

Made most of #1 draw and went forward to lead, set seriously good pace, going well and only swamped for good entering the final furlong, but continued to ran well to the line without being hammered.

Clear return to form after a long drop in the ratings on the back of poor showings ever since the early days of his career. This should be strong form.

Dropped another 2lb and of serious interest next time with any support in the market, most likely at his best over a mile.

Race Replay

Ventura Express
25/03/23 – 7.30 Wolverhampton:

Smartly away but soon restrained from his wide draw. In rear going well; steered into traffic approaching the home straight; only clear inside the final furlong finishing seriously well.

Clearly in strong form. Ran career best speed rating a few weeks earlier. Minium trip probably his best. Won last summer off 80 on turf. Not dramatically well handicapped off 79 right now but clearly ripe for a big run once the handbreak is off for good again.

Race Replay

Harry The Haggler
27/03/23 – 2.45 Lingfield:

Moved forward from wide draw and tracked the pace. Bit raw in the early parts of the race (possibly received a kick from horse in front just before the first bend). Turned wide and awkward for home and lost ground. Ran on well.

Good form. Still lightly raced as this was his handicap debut. Came back in January after being off the track and gelded since May. Appears to cry out out for a step up in trip, although I feel 7 furlongs on a less sharp track is also worth a try.

Race Replay

Harry’s Hill
25/03/23 – 2.15 Curragh:

Bit awkward away, but then showed then good ealy speed, disputing the lead. Going well for a long time before falling away in the final furlong.

Was up against it on class here as well as next time at Cork when not disgraced either. Both runs warrant upgrading as ground too soft to see him at his best.

Should find it easier in lesser grade and may get more help from handicapper too. Minimum trip on ground not properly soft remains of interest.

Race Replay

Tammany Hall
25/03/23 – 5.37 Curragh:

Travelled well enough in midfield and solid progress from 3f out, before being carried to his left from 2f out. Short of room in a pocket about 1.5f from home. Effort petered out once in the clear.

Dropped 3lb in the meantime. Infrequent winner but probably well-handicapped judged on strong runs in Handicaps last season. 5-6f with cut in the ground the ideal scenario. Should improve for this return.

Race Replay

The Toff
29/03/23 – 1.35 Lingfield:

Tracked the pace, although first couple of furlongs not the most economical, let the leader and eventual winner kick before going after him. Finished strong second and fastest last three furlongs of all.

Still a maiden, though, not without promise in a number of runs prior. Gelded in October and two good runs subsequently, but he didn’t see out a mile.

Dropped to good mark and clearly able to win over 7f furlongs. Uncomplicated sort usually up with the pace. Interesting if he can find a slightly easier race over 7 furlongs.

Race Replay

Ballybaymoonshiner
29/03/23 – 2.10 Lingfield:

Went quickly forward from the widest gate (#13) to grab the lead and set a solid pace. Going well turning for home and still in front approaching the final furlong marker. Only went down inside the last half furlong.

Good performance and rock solid form. Knocked on the door multiple times despite still being a maiden after 15 runs. A mile is too far, 7f right on his limit.

Ran a number of solid speed ratings in the last weeks and months that suggest he’s well capable to win off a 51 mark. Chelmsford entry over 7f on Thursday of real interest if he’s got a good draw.

Race Replay

Nefarious:
29/03/23 – 2.45 Lingfield:

Slowly away, in rear, outpaced from over 3 furlongs out, seemingly back on the bridle entering the home straight with delayed effort from jockey who made sure the horse got the most uneconomical ride possible.

6f is on the sharp side. Wasn’t in it to win it and hasn’t been the last few times. Dropped to sexy mark and of serious interest over 7f again.

Race Replay

Phoenix Star
29/03/23 – 8.30 Kempton:

Held up well off the pace, had loads to d still over two furlongs out then picked his way through the field and fished incredibly strongly.

Dropped another 2lb for this effort. Clearly in strong form, ran well this winter on the AW as well. On a good mark for sand and turf. Ran to better speed ratings multiple time in the last half year. Effective over 5-6f.

Race Replay

Ghost Lights
31/03/23 – 1.50 Lingfield:

Wide draw no help, forced to settle in rear. Going okay before turned wide for challenge, finished strongly against front-runner pace bias in slowly run race. Probably decent form.

Lightly raced, handicap debut. Showed promise in three starts prior. Pedigree points to possible improvement for step up to 7 furlongs.

Race Replay

Mucky Mulconry
31/03/23 – 1.50 Lingfield:

Path forward blocked after the start, forced to settle off the pace. Asked for effort from over 2 furlongs out. Huge finish against the inside rail in slowly run race.

Second run for new yard since moving over from Ireland. Still lightly raced enough and this effort when money was down suggests he’s capable to win off a mark around 50.

Race Replay

Dark Design
31/03/23 – 2.25 Lingfield:

Moved quickly forward from his wide draw to track eventual and very strong winner racing in second place. Didn’t have the pace to match and tired in the final furlong.

Still solid ran, as mostly he ran well in recent weeks and months. Dropped 2lb and interesting anywhere from 6-8f on AW or turf. Won off 55 and 57 last season, ran to 56 speed rating in January.

Race Replay

Sir Benedict
31/03/23 – 6.20 Newcastle:

Awkward start, in rear, behind a wall of horses from 2f out; good progress from 1f out, before stopped again with half a furlong to go.

Tricky sort who finds trouble regularly. Clearly down to good mark and in super form. With a clear run very much ready to strike next time.

Race Replay

Global Tycoon
31/03/23 – 3.15 Southwell:

Moved forward to grab the lead, not uncontested for the most part, though. Keen in the first half of the race. Going okay turning for home, only relinquished lead around the final furlong then tired rapidly.

Return off 274 days off. Not sure he stays a mile, either. Won well at Kempton over 7f last autumn. Still lightly raced. Interesting down to 7f again off his reassessed 56 mark.

Race Replay

Cruise
01/04/23 – 4.25 Kempton:

Raced in last, bit raw and fresh, niggled; attempted to make challenge from 2f out when going best toward the inside, path blocked and short of room until jockey takes big pull at the final furlong marker to get space on the outside. Finished easily the best under hands and heels.

Fair to assume she would have won with a clear run, perhaps even if she would have been ridden more vigorously in the final furlong in any case. Depth of form questionable, though.

Changed yards during winter for £27,000. First start since August. Should improve. Opening mark possibly lenient on this evidence. May be to short a price next time (entry 11/04).

Race Replay

Greatgadian
01/04/23 – 3.35 Doncaster:

The wide draw was far from an advantage, he travelled in rear and had to come around the widest outside on the far side to make a challenge from over two furlongs out. Flat footed from 1f out but kept going well to the line.

In solid form all winter. Definitely prefers better ground than the deep going in the Lincoln. Stays 10 furlongs and now down to a mark of 98 interesting on better ground.

Race Replay

Glory Fighter
02/04/23 – 5.40 Doncaster:

Went forward, but not before the jockey lost his irons early; quickly recovered, led but closely followed. Under pressure from 2f out and gradually weakened, though, ran well to the line for 3rd place.

Good reappearance. Down to fair mark. Caught the eye a few times last year without winning. Pretty ground independent, bar proper fast ground. Although, best performances came on good to soft to genuine good ground, over the minimum trip.

Race Replay

Toussarok
03/04/23 – 7.30 Newcastle:

Led, setting a steady pace, travelling full of enthusiasm. Challenged from two furlongs and no chance with the winner, but impressive how he kept answering the calls, stuck his neck out and found for pressure.

Clearly in good nick. On good mark. Won off 79 last year on turf. Ideally drops down to 6f on decent ground. Otherwise happy to wait, as if he drops a few pounds he’ll be seriously well handicapped.

Race Replay

Cavalier Approach
04/04/23 – 8.00 Southwell:

Bit awkward away from the gate. Travelled well against inside rail before short of room over 2 furlongs out, lost ground and momentum but jockey also didn’t seem particularly bothered. Finished nicely under light hands and heels.

Clearly never been in it to win it and never has been in five career runs. Worth to monitor the market the next few times. Seems to be in good shape.

Comes down to solid mark now, ran 55 speed rating last autumn which looks legit given the depth of that form. Minimum trip should be fine for now. May have some scope to move up in trip, too.

Race Replay

Revoquable
04/04/23 – 3.45 Thirsk:

Wide draw forced him to settle well off the pace. Trailed as the field turned for home, delayed challenge before getting into the clear about two furlongs from home. Ran on well but couldn’t get back to winner. Finished best of all.

Down to good mark now, after largely uneventful All-Weather season since a strong 1m win at Southwell in October.

Ran to 59 speed rating that day, hence fair to assume off 54 (if left untouched by handicapper) he’s got to be an interesting runner on possibly better ground over 7-8f.

Race Replay

Makalu
04/04/023 – 4.15 Thirsk:

Unusual good start but wide draw forced him to settle in rear. Trailed when turning for home but made excellent progress from 3f out before not quite the clearest of runs from two furlongs from home. Finished best.

Excellent reappearance and return to form after a bunch of poor performances last season. Clearly capable off 55, having ran to better speed ratings in the past.

One who wasn’t the sharpest out of the gate and needs a bit of luck due to his racing style. Ideally better ground, 6-7 furlongs fine.

Race Replay

Captain Corcoran
04/04/23 – 5.45 Thirsk:

Awkward start, held up in rear, travelled well, good progress from three furlongs out but not clear run entering the final furlong. Finished nicely nonetheless under pretty easy ride.

Clearly ridden with intend not to show all of his cards here. Usually up with the pace. Nice reappearance after light All-Weather campaign in any case. On a good turf mark and ready to rock any time soon.

Race Replay

Coast
05/04/23 – 2.25 Wolverhampton:

Moved quickly forward and set fast pace. Had the field on the stretch and still ahead approaching final furlong before fading badly.

Doesn’t stay 7f. Strong run, backed up recent massive runner-up performance. Down to six furlongs will become interesting. Although has a couple of 7f entries. Hopefully she can get find a way to drop below 54 to become seriously intriguing.

Race Replay

Totnes
05/04/23 – 3.00 Wolverhampton:

Travelled very strongly in rear of the field, good progress from 3f out. going much the best. Challenge petered out from over 1f out as she hang badly to the left.

Can be excused. Perhaps something wasn’t right. She was ultra-impressive weeks earlier over the same C&D, winning in the manner of a talented filly on only her second career run.

She should be better than than the 71 opening mark. Pedigree points to stamina for more improvement to come beyond 7 furlongs.

Race Replay

Albert Cee
05/04/23 – 4.30 Kempton:

Off to a quick start, right up with the hot pace, travelled strongly and kicked on over 2f out. Beaten by better horse on the day but impressive as he fought back gamely late.

Could improve for this outing, first one for a new yard and as a 3-year-old. Uncomplicated sort, and if not too harshly reassessed by the handicapper, of real interest in similar race with a little bit less pace to compete.

Race Replay

Intervention
06/04/23 – 6.30 Southwell:

Hard to control as overly keen early on, led go after first two furlongs. Established comfortable lead but did way too much and faded badly in the home straight. 1m is too far, in any case.

Highly frustrating sort due to incredible consistently. Ran numerous times really well over the winter (inlcuding lto catching the eye). But in the grip of the handicapper. Ran two career best speed ratings this winter as well.

Perhaps it was a final bow by connections that he need help from the handicapper to allow him to run a race without intent to do well. One to monitor, if he can find a way to fall to 75 he’d be intriguing over 6f on the AW. Would like to see more assistance before being interested on turf.

Race Replay

Creme De Cacao
06/04/23 – 7.30 Southwell:

Keenly moved forward and led, set good pace, although closely followed and put under pressure around the bend. Kicked on while travelling on the bridle approaching the home straight. Tired from 2f out but nice attitude as she fought back gamely all the way to the line.

If she can settle a bit better, which isn’t impossible, given this was the handicap debut for this lightly raced filly (April foal), she offers upside off her opening mark. Not impossible that she can drop to 6 furlongs also.

Race Replay

Compare
06/04/23 – 2.10 Chelmsford:

Awkward start, heavily bumped a rival, led early on before settling in third. Kicked on nicely against inside rail approaching the home straight; hit the front 1f out, strong run to the line but no chance with winner from off the pace eventually.

Possibly strong form. Winner won back-to-back with this; third won last time out. Others looked solid in this field. He was a 50/1 shot, clearly outran his price.

Still lightly raced enough. Offers upside over a mile ran at a decent pace. May stretch out to 10 furlongs; either way deserves another chance.

Race Replay

Mr Escobar
07/04/23 – 2.05 Lingfield:

Travelled very smoothly tracking the pace. Confident ride, jockey took multiple pulls as they turned the home bend, seemingly going much the best. Didn’t get the gap in the home straight and minded in the closing stages.

Short-priced favourite, Ryan Moore spoke in glowing words beforehand; an obvious one, perhaps too short next time. Lightly raced, improved nicely at Dundalk in maiden company. Clearly ahead of his mark over these sort of trips.

Race Replay

Captain Dandy
07/04/23 – 1.40 Bath:

Had no chance from the widest draw but did exceptionally well against the bias finishing best of those drawn in the high numbers.

Confirmed huge impression from lto win at Wolverhampton when he finished seriously well after missing the break and giving the field a headstart.

Tricky sort who can miss the break, did much better here at Bath and perhaps the penny has dropped, somewhat. One to keep an eye on for headgear and/or for being gelded.

Race Replay

Madam Fenella
07/04/23 – 2.15 Bath:

Awkward start, wore hood to post; she’s tricky as the past tells. Travelled well and did seriously well to finish as close as she did from her wide draw.

Had limited opportunities on turf in handicap company. Ascot run from last September noteworthy. Probably not much scope in terms of moving up in trip beyond 6 furlongs.

Intriguing once she drops down to class 6 on turf. She seems to handle soft ground but has shown to stay 6 furlongs as well, possibly interesting on better ground.

Race Replay

Gioia Cieca
08/04/23 – 2.25 Musselburgh:

Not quite the sharpest of starts early on; soon tracked the pace and was going okay with bit of progress on inside before heavily under pressure from 2f out. Stuck with it and ran well to the line, no match for winner, though.

Good to see him finish well after break and first time since a wind OP. Can be upgraded as softish ground far from ideal. Hasn’t ran overly impressive speed ratings yet but deserves a chance over 7f on decent to fast ground.

Possibly well-handicapped in those conditions judged on last season. Not one to give to many chances but worth to wait for his conditions, in any case.

Race Replay

Rock Melody
08/04/23 – 4.45 Musselburgh:

In rear racing against the inside rail with plenty to do over 1f out. Rapid progress but squeezed and short of room in the closing stages; finished really well.

Lovely return from a break and for a new yard. Trip on the sharp side. Better over 6 and 7 furlongs. On a workable mark, has ran to similar speed ratings already.

Race Replay

Mustaffiz
08/04/23 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

Missed break, keen afterwards. Uneventful run. Caught the eye a number of times when he ran well in last weeks and entered on Eyecatchers #7.

Really liked his lto Kempton run as well. However, after he tried a number of times now it’s clear now he’s in the grip of the handicapper and needs some help, hence no surprise to see him having missed the break here.

Monitor as he falls below 60 (ideally 58 and lower) for return to front-running tactics over stiff 5f or 6f.

Race Replay

Three Beauz
09/04/23 – 2.05 Southwell:

Bit awkward away, bumped by rival, possibly lit up as a consequence. Travelled keenly, approached 2f powerfully, though. Behind wall of horses, had to switch very wide, made good ground all the time. Couldn’t quite sustain effort.

Off a break, still lightly raced and offers plenty of upside. Looks capable to win off current mark if he can progress from this run. Number of good performances as a juvenile, also on turf. Decent ground and minimum trip would be intriguing.

Race Replay

Betting

All-Weather Thursday Selections: 9th March 2023

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1.15 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

It was an odd race and even odder ride Primo’s Comet received at Newcastle last month when last seen. It also was quite impressive how the veteran gelding finished his race there.

He was restrained early on, seemingly impeded around 4f out as pace wasn’t rapid and it got tight amongst those held up. He switched eventually to get a run against the inside rail but didn’t find space until late, while the jockey in the saddle wasn’t all that bothered, it seemed.

In any case, the way the 8-year-old finished suggests he must be hitting some serious form. That comprises with his rapidly falling handicap mark.

Nonetheless, he still managed to run to 61 and 63 speed rating in October and November, therefore looks handicapped to go close on that evidence alone, now rated 63.

He’s got a favourable low draw here and should enjoy the chaotic and frantic pace to be expected in this race to be delivered in the closing stages for a turn of foot.

10pts win – Primo’s Comet @ 11/2

………

7.45 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

The wider than ideal #9 draw is a concern, but that aside there’s an awful lot to like about Fanzone here in a winnable contest.

This is going to be his second run after a break. That most recent comeback run nine days ago was seriously eye catching, suggesting the 6-year-old gelding is in fine form and very much ready to win.

Nine days ago he wasn’t quite the sharpest out of a wider than ideal draw and looked a bit keen, as he settled in midfield. He travelled really well for a long time but had to wait to be angled out to the stands’ side rail for a clear run.

Once in the clear he found plenty for pressure. In fact he finished fastest for the last two furlongs.

It was an excellent comeback run after 188 days off. He also caught the eye a number of times last year on the flat.

Yet, racing off a career lowest mark he makes a lot of appeal as he drops in grade as well, into 0-55 level, with in-form Oisin Murphy in the saddle.

10pts win – Fanzone @ 7/1