Tag Archives: Wolverhampton

Wednesday Selections: February, 13th 2018

Wet Dundalk Polytrack

2.20 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Fiery Breath won eighteen days ago over Course and Distance when I was sweet on him – and I expect a similar sort of outcome this time again. Same facts as brought forward the other day apply here:

this son of Bated Breath has a pedigree to do well on the All-Weather and the fact he is still not gelded after his juvenile season suggested there is some belief he could turn out slightly better than anything he has shown to date.

He was not disgraced in three starts in tough maidens last season where he usually travelled well but faded in the closing stages. Connections opted for a wind operation subsequently and that has worked in so far as Fiery Breath won on his seasonal debut, as mentioned before.

He travelled sweetly throughout, clearly suited by the fact pace. The imposing colt didn’t quite shake off hi rivals as easily as one would have hoped given he turn for home on the bridle.

However, first time up from a lay-off and the first run since the wind op, he was entitled find things not all that easy in the finish – he’s likely to improve for the run and the experience of knowing he can properly breath in the closing stages, though.

A 4lb hike of his handicap mark looks potentially undervaluing that performance. Fiery Breath is still very low mileage, it’ll be only his second Al-Weather- and Handicap start  and this looks not an overly strong race in general.

Selection:
10pts win – Fiery Breath @ 2/1 VC

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7.45 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

A female dominated field but the cock of the walk Swissie has a good chance to follow-up on his fine Newcastle success over the minimum trip.

He met some of these that day and probably would have won with a bit more in hand than the bare result suggested, if not for an awkward start and finding himself sandwiched and subsequently squeezed out at a crucial stage of the race from 2f out.

Swissie had to find his stride quickly- and go full gear again once in the clear deep in the closing stages; he got up his head in front when it mattered most – quite an impressive finish he produced.

His handicap mark has been raised by 4lb, which looks certainly fair, however, on his only fifth career start with a perfect draw to start the race from, he should have every chance to make it two on the bounce here.

Selection:
10pts win  – Swissie @ 11/2 PP

Monday Selections: February, 12th 2018

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7.40 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

I was keen on De Vegas Kid when he returned from a break at Lingfield last month. Things didn’t work out that day for him. A wide draw, a less than perfect start, he always raced wide and didn’t receive the smartest of rides challenging the pace throughout widest of all.

Given the circumstances, he ran well in a very competitive race. On the other hand one could say it fits the narrative of his career, as De Vegas Kid always finds a reason to get beat, it seems.

As noted the last time, he has ran some fine races in the past, knocking heavily on the door, more so on the flat than the All-Weather, where he was unlucky not to get his head in front.

Potentially stripping fitter now, another pound off the mark and dropping to the minimum trip might offer a way out of the misery, though. With a good draw, in a very winnable race, De Vegas Kid has no excuses today, but the best chance ever to get this elusive first victory under his belt.

Selection:
10pts win – De Vegas Kid @ 5/1 Bet365

Wednesday Selections, February, 7th February 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

6.25 Wolverhampton: Class 3 Handicap, 7f

Hot race, with plenty of established form on offer, even though many are well exposed, which leaves the door open for relatively low mileage gelding Mickey.

The five year old returned to the racetrack in December at Lingfield from a 15 months long absence. He was well backed in a tough handicap, however, bottled his chances at the start. He travelled well, though wasn’t really asked for a big effort turning wide and was looked after in the closing stages.

He drops 2lb for the effort, now second up after the long break, also the second run after being gelded, he might well be better for it. He’s got a decent draw which should ensure a good position in midfield with cover, as long as he starts better this time.

Mickey has only eight starts under his belt; he won quite impressively over course and distance as a three year old in maiden company, and followed up with two fine runner-up efforts the same year.

Off his current mark, Mickey could be well handicapped given he promised to be a bit better before his lay-off. Additional positive signs for his chance in this race: the Dascombe yard seems in rude health at the moment and sire Zoffany has a fine record on Wolverhampton’s Tapeta, particularly over the 7 furlong trip.

With all this in mind, I feel the price Geoff Banks offers at the moment is out of line, and offers tremendous value for this horse, taking int consideration the upside Mickey theoretically possesses.

Selection:
10pts win – Mickey @ 15/2 GB

Monday Selections: January, 22nd 2018

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Shame we didn’t get to see Frozen Lake run today – the gelding was withdrawn under current rules after breaking through the starting gate. One for the tracker, regardless. So, a quiet week finds an unsatisfying ending.

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7.20 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 1.5f

If a nine year old heads the market at odds of 7/2 you know it’s a wide open contest. That says, one who appears overprices is the Jean-Rene Auvray trained Anif as he has plenty going his way here I feel.

The gelding finished a fine third when last seen over CD 18 days ago – fair to say he had the run of the race from the front, though he wasn’t far beaten in the end and the form already works out well enough.

Anif is still low mileage, it’s gonna be his eight career start, only the third on the All-Weather and the fifth in Handicap company. He remains on the same mark as the other day, drops, though, in class, for the first time in a class 5 Handicap.

There isn’t too much pace on here again, so it is likely that Anif might find himself in front again, as he enjoys generally, or at least up with the pace. What could turn out to me a muddling affair, you surely want to be not too far off the speed, that is for sure.

His sire Cape Cross has an outstanding record with his offspring here at Wolverhampton over this trip – so overall it is possible Anif has found a golden opportunity.

Selection:
10pts win – Anif @ 7/1 Bet365

 

Tuesday Selections: January, 16th 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

4.35 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

I am not a fan of backing mares during the winter months against the boys, however Gorgeous has caught my eye on her comeback run after a near year long layoff at Wolverhampton over 5f back in November as a 66/1 longshot.

She got badly hampered at the start and as a consequence wasn’t in a good position and too far off the pace when it mattered. Nonetheless, she finished in tremendous style, producing a turn of foot from the back of the field picking one after another up, to finish 2nd eventually.

She couldn’t quit back it up three weeks later – possibly the “bounce factor”? Although again she did not have the smoothest of experiences getting out of the starting gates and she didn’t help her cause when hanging badly to the left in the closing stages.

Regardless, both forms look rock solid and have bee franked. She drops a pound down to 55, which looks a very dangerous mark. She moves up to 6f which should very much suit on pedigree as a full-sister to a multiple Kempton course & distance winner.

Gorgeous has a wide draw to overcome which isn’t ideal. However this is a very winnable race in my eyes and ideal chance for her to get back to the winning ways.

Selection:
10pts win – Gorgeous @ 12/1 Bet365

Monday Selections: January, 15th 2018

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33/1 get in Cosmelli! It seemed a long time coming this week, hitting post and crossbar so often. Today was the day; though, I was nervous when Tom Eaves set very fast fractions early on. However, stamina is Cosmelli’s strengths and he clearly outstayed them all in impressive manner! A wonderful end to the week.

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7.40 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

This looks like a battle between the top two in the market. Two potentially very well handicapped individuals, with Fareeq and Waneen – one of them should have too much in the locker for the rest in the field.

Fareeq drops down to a career lowest mark. He looks able to exploit it on the back of a recent 3rd place finish that looks decent form. A further drop of 2lb provides him with a prime chance – however he is drawn wider than ideal and that might swing the pendulum towards Waneen.

Waneen is ideally drawn in five which gives his jockey plenty of options. He also has dropped to a career lowest mark. After a string of mainly poor performances in slightly higher grades and higher ratings, he dropped to 58 the last time, when back off a 158 long break as he reappeared over CD – and the money was clearly down, backed into favoritism before the off.

Issue was a wide draw that day. He made allot to get across as soon as possible from the widest draw to share the lead. He was still in with a fair shout two furlongs out, and only dropped away late paying for his start and potentially his first run in a while. This is a solid piece of form, regardless, as it has been franked multiple times in the meantime.

The handicapper relives him off another pound. That is nothing in the grand scheme of things. Fact is, however, Waneen is a course and distance winner who won off 68 and was 74 rated, which seemed exactly a year ago pretty much alright.

He’s got another 56 days to recover from this big last run – hopefully fit and well, with most things falling his way, he looks sure to go close, as he seems incredibly well handicapped now.

Selection:
10pts win – Waneen @ 10/3 Skybet

 

Saturday Selections: January, 13th 2018

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3.10 Lingfield: Class 6, 10 furlongs

This is a poor race, and therefore an open contest. That says, half the field can easily be discarded. The other half could go close, but doesn’t necessarily have to.

Maiden Presence Process falls into this category, even though he may not stand out as an obvious winner at first glance.

However, I believe he has some things going for himself: he second up after a break and his comeback run at this venue over further was fine, in fact quite eye-catching, actually.

He pulled hard early on – so the drop to 10f will likely suit – and had to finish from an impossible position while not getting a ride that seemed to have the intention of finishing as good as possible.

He still ran on well enough in the closing stages and I take this as a sign of better things t come now. Key is the fact Presence Process carries a career lowest handicap mark, a further 3lb claim by decent apprentice Charlie Bennett helps too.

A pivotal piece of form for him – while he looked half-promising earlier in his career – came twelve months ago here at Lingfield over a mile when he finished 4th in a really hot race.

That day he hit a flat spot around 3f out when the pace quickened, but was then also hampered entering home straight, yet ran on strongly to finish 4th. The form has been franked multiple times by several horses in the race, no less so by the winner who was subsequently Group 3 placed.

Presence Process tried the 10f trip only once, on turf at Windsor from a much higher mark. I feel this is his optimum trip and of a mark off 55 he has a real chance in this race.

Selection:
10pts win – Presence Process @ 14/1 Skybet

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