Tag Archives: Wolverhampton

Saturday Selections: March, 14th 2020

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Cheltenham is over. It didn’t deliver the goods on the betting front as it did in the last years. At the very least it delivered some relieve in the sense some of my selections were successful. Many more ran really well. That’s a big positive after the worst start to any betting year I ever had.

There is a bit a question “would, could, should”. But those type of thoughts rarely lead to anything good.

I got the Gold Cup spot on, though: Al Boum Photo was the one to beat and he had everything you need to go back to back. He didn’t quite have the same dream run through as last year but he had a super sharp Paul Townend in the saddle who made the right decisions in the right moment to ensure ABP endured as little trouble as possible.

He beat Santini in a brilliant finish. In third, my selection, Lostintranslation, ran a massive race. The two possible improvers were good enough to beat the rest of the field, as was my expectation before the race. But they were not quite good enough (yet?) to beat the defending champion.

After the week didn’t start too well for Paul Townend, he finished it off with a week that’ll go down in history. Champion jockey and the man who steered a horse to defend the crown in the Gold Cup. He doesn’t always get it right. But who does? Ruby and AP didn’t. What matters is that Paul Townend got it as right as it gets at the grandest of stages. That makes him a top top class jockey.

I will review Cheltenham tomorrow afternoon on Dublin City FM. Tune in if you like. Beyond that, I gonna struggle on in an attempt to get by betting back on track. Thankfully the flat is around the corner.

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6.00 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 9.5f

The money is pouring in for Taurean Dancer who returns from a break with a first time visor fitted and Rossa Ryan in the saddle for what is his only ride on the card.

Whether this Taurean Dancer’s optimum trip is a question mark, given his career best topspeed rating came over further. However hes form over shorter as well, having been beaten only by a neck at Kempton over a mile of a much higher rating in the past.

I imagine he’ll be ridden forward in order to set a good pace and use his undoubtedly existing stamina. As he can be keen, this should suit him well in a race that is wide open.

Selection:
10pts win – Taurean Dancer @ 11/1 MB

Friday Selections: March, 6th 2020

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6.00 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

It looks this could be the day Street Poet is finally let loose. I have been eyeing this day for a while, ever since the gelding caught the eye very much at Wolverhampton in early January.

Always travelling wide, a bit keen, yet going quite well for an awful long time, he only tiered once turning for home without ever being asked any question whatsoever – he also ran clearly over a trip way too far.

he gradually stepped down in distance ever since. Two more jobs later, here we are back over his preferred 7 furlong trip, with the mark fallen dramatically since he won back to back over this CD last summer.

This race looks wide open and is clearly for the taking. The draw isn’t totally ideal, given Street Poet wants to be rather up with the pace. That’s the risk that if he breaking cleanly he will be in trouble.

First time tongue-tie is an interesting addition as it strengthens the case that today connections mean business.

Selection:
10pts win – Street Poet @ 7/1 MB

Sunday Selections: January, 19th 2020

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

12.50 Lingfield: Class 6 Apprentice Handicap, 1m 6f

Favourite Wanaasah won under an enterprising ride in sensational style recently here at Wolverhampton over a few furlongs longer. She should go well again, albeit, under a 5lb penalty and with most likely not given an uncontested lead things will be more difficult.

I am interested in Mark Johnston’s Grenadier Guard. Clearly a talented individual; clearly one with quirks who’s gone wrong at the same time.

He is tried in a visor for the first time today. I am not pinning solely my hope on that piece of headgear, but it may well help the gelding to focus better. I am inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt that he needed his last two runs after a break potentially; certainly a first start at Southwell is always something to forgive.

He drops down to a mile and six furlongs, which looks a more suitable trip. At the same time Grenadier Guard continues to fall in the mark. He showed promise last summer on turf when running to some good level of form, winning at Haydock and following up with a fine 2nd in a competitive Novices race.

That day he also ran to a 85 topspeed rating which looks believable. Hence there is a bit of talent that is better than a January class 5 Handicap at Wolverhampton. I take the risk and give Grenadier Guard another chance to live somewhat up to last summers promise.

Selection:
10pts win – Grenadier Guard @ 10.5/1 MB

Thursday Selections: December 26th 2019

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

Merry Christmas to all readers of this site! Hope you are having a wonderful time surrounded by family and friends.

I am in the middle of my very own winter “break”, with overseas travel as well as spending Christmas at home in Germany. A busy year, an even busier few weeks…. but now it’s certainly time to sit back and relax for a few days at the very least.

Nonetheless, I can’t help but have a quick look at what’s going on in the world of racing. I have no real interest in the jump races today – not from a betting perspective at least. Thankfully the Tapeta track at Wolverhampton is open for business….

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4.25 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f 

Favourite Renardeau looks to be too high in the mark now after his two victories on the bounce. A better case can be made for Dream Magic who was so impressive over course and distance when last seen, who also matched his revised handicap mark on topspeed that day.

However it was clearly a career best and you have to wonder if that one run should overshadow the evidence of a gelding who has been seen 30 times before and only once ran to anything remotely close to that level of form before. He can go close again, and one can argue at 7/1 is a fair price to find out, but I am more inclined to give the runner-up of aforementioned Wolverhampton contest a big chance here today.

Bottom weight Fayetta is still a maiden after 19 starts and was well beaten in second place at Wolverhampton behind Dream Magic. On the other hand there is a significant turnaround in the weights today, in favour of the filly. She ran at Southwell in the meantime, didn’t follow on from the good form shown at Wolverhampton, though.

Possibly down to the fibresand, now back on Tapeta will be more suitable. On this surface she has achieved topspeed ratings of 61 and 67 this year over the 12 furlong trip. So now down to a 61 official rating the case can be made for Fayetta having a prime chance taking advantage of a slipping mark.

Selection:
10pts win – Fayetta @ 10/1 MB

Saturday Selections II: September, 21st 2019

Wet Dundalk Polytrack

6.20 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

I might rue my decision in the end, because I strongly feel that Consequences is most likely a well-handicapped individual. He’s ran to higher topspeed than his current mark, he did so, in fact, when last seen at Chelmsford when nothing more could have gone wrong for him. Untouched by the handicapper, he has a massive chance if things fall right for him.

However, he is an individual who seems to draw misfortune. Hence at prices I go with the other I fancy nearly as strongly, who also appears to be potentially “well in”: Tathmeen.

Whether 6 furlongs is truly his trip is still kind of a question to be answered. Given he is 1 from 8 over the trip (the one win is incredibly poor form) and has won more races over the minimum trip. But on the other hand his career best speed ratings came over 6 furlongs.

Down to a mark of 72 now, Tathmeen has ran to TS 76 on the AW and 79 on turf in the past. A career best on the All-Weather was achieved back in February at this track, albeit over 5 furlongs, when he ran out a strong victory, form that is highly credible and he did so of his current 72 OR.

Fine 3 lb claimer William Cox is on board. With a few horses already out, the draw that looked pretty bad initially doesn’t look quite as challenging any more.

Selection:
10pts win – Tathmeen @ 11/1 MB

 

Saturday Selections: August, 31st 2019

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5.15 Wolverhampton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 4f

State Of Affair is a fair favourite here, no doubt. With more improvement to come and having run to topspeed close to his current mark he may well be hard to beat. But he is a short price and has to prove he can translate the same sort of form the the sand.

Proven All-Weather performer Ice Canyon looks dramatically overpriced here, though. He has his third start for a new yard and the hood is back on – which is a definite positive.

His debut for trainer Kevin Frost was pretty decent in a hot contest at Chester earlier this month that looks strong form, even more so given he came off a break.

Returning to a course and distance Ice Canyon has produced an AW career best this winter, when an agonisingly close second of mark of 68, running to topspeed 70 then.

Now 3lb lower than that day, with the hood back on, probably race fit and only a single pound above his last winning mark, he looks potentially well handicapped in a field where not many make any appeal.

Selection:
10pts win – Ice Canyon @ 21/1 MB

Friday Selections: August, 2nd 2019

Newmarket Rowley Mile after race

2.35 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 6f

A re chance to back a horse on the sand over the summer today: The Blues Master is a silly price. Sure, there is a Mark Prescott favourite who may well be hard to beat if the improvement so often seen in his horses comes to fruition. Though, his record on the All-Weather this year is significantly down compared to other years.

I think this favourite is for the taking at odds-on. Hence The Blues Master is pretty much a logic choice. He returned to the track after a long lay-off when finishing a strong runner-up at Newcastle at the end of June.

Only one pound higher today but a class lower, while stepping up in trip to a more suitable 1 mile & 6 furlongs, given he ran to a topspeed rating of 71 in the past, I feel he will be really competitive today.

Selection:
10pts win – The Blues Master @ 9.5/1 MB

……..

7.30 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Los Camachos on his first run for the John Gallagher yard is an interesting runner in a race that has not too much quality in depth. The gelding was claimed and I would argue he ran pretty to form and current handicap in his last two runs in claiming company.

He appears to be slightly better on the All-Weather, but even on turf, despite a win yet, he’s been four out of six times in the money. He also ran to a topspeed rating of 78 last summer here at Newmarket, something he matched and bettered at the All-Weather.

Los Camachos also ran to TS 77 in a claimer three starts back, suggesting he is still pretty much in this range.

So, for a new yard with an excellent 5lb claimer in the saddle, with conditions to suit, at a track he performed well before, of a mark of 78, I feel this lad is well overpriced.

Selection:
10pts win – Los Camachos @ 17/1 MB

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7.50 Bath: Class 4 Handicap, 5 furlongs

As the The Daley Express is out, who’d I’ considered a major player for the victory in this race, it opens the door for Just Glamorous who drops into class 4 where he is three wins from four runs.

The six-year-old may not quite be the force of old but appears to handicapped to go close, nonetheless. He’s been running rather well in four of five starts this season, bar one to forget over in Ireland.

Now down to a mark of 83 again, the same he came an agonizingly close second at Goodwood in May of, when he also matched an 83 topspeed rating, Just Glamorous is weighted to win.

The ground may be a bit too fast to be considered optimum conditions, as he also has an engagement at Thirsk tomorrow, there is a ‘risk’ hell be a none-runner. But he has form on fast surfaces, and with first time cheek pieces fitted plus a pretty competent 7lb claimer in the saddle, I’d love to see him taking his chance this evening.

Selection:
10pts win – Just Glamorous @ 9/2 MB