Tag Archives: Selections

Friday Selections: November, 30th 2018

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11.20 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 5 furlongs

Less than a handful of horses appear to be in with a shout here – Decision Maker is one of them – if he is ready to go after a break and his breathing won’t prevent him from finishing strongly.

That clearly been an issue in the past, as tongue tie and wind surgeries suggest. He’s been off since June after a poor showing on turf. A 3l beaten 6th at Nottingham prior, though, looks pretty strong form, so do some of his placed efforts here at Southwell in early 2018.

Decision Maker drops to a handy mark, that should see him being potentially well handicapped. Blinkers first time fitted is interesting; a decent draw should help too.

Selection:
10pts win – Decision Maker @ 17/2 MB

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3.15 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1 mile

A fortnight ago I wrote about Sooqaan as he was about to run in a similar type race:

“Reasons why I like this lad allot are plenty; a simple reason why I’m wondering is: there is fair chance this isn’t the race to let the handbreak off. 

Sooqaan is handicapped to win on his best form. He won off 64 over course and distance earlier this year. However, he was on a roll at that time, completing a hat-trick, kicking it off wit a CD success of a mark of 54. So I can see why connections would want to lower his current rating a bit, still.

On the other hand Sooqaan could find an excellent chance to score, despite the competitive nature of the race. 

The fact that is: in class 6 over this course and distance he is 4 from 4! So, it looks significant that he drops down to this grade for the first time since he last win, coming back the his happy hunting ground all the while.” 

That still holds true. Sooqaan didn’t go close that day, but it was a fair enough performance. He’s now 3lb lighter, which is an added bonus, as surely that makes him a well handicapped horse today.

An additional 3lb claim by the competent apprentice in the saddle, in a less competitive race and a decent draw to start from – Sooqaan should have a massive chance today.

Selection: 
10pts win – Sooqaan @ 17/2 MB

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Wednesday Selection: November, 21st 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

7.20 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 9.5 furlongs

This is a poor looking race, hard to fancy anything with confidence. It screams for an upset – this could be the Rae Guest trained filly Woosh.

The four-year-old hasn’t shown anything in three maiden starts. She looks like a late bloomer, given her June birth date. Now stepping up significantly in trip to something that should be more comfortable for the first time in a handicap I can see how she’d be one to upset the odds.

Her daddy Nathanial has produced a fair share of winners on the All-Weather, particularly with older fillies over longer trips. Woosh fits the profile. Her wide draw is a concern, but then she has the added bonus of Martin Harley in the saddle. He enjoys tremendous success on Rae Guest horses, especially in handicaps.

Selection:
10pts win – Woosh @ 17/1 PP/MB

Wednesday Selections: November, 14th 2018

8.00 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

Is today the day to let Iley Boy loose?

Well, we’ll find out in the few hours. If today is the day to take the handbreak off then Iley Boy must have a cracking chance to win. That is, if he can overcome the slight disadvantage of a wider than ideal draw.

On the positive side, over 12f at Kempton, if you have a bit of early speed, you can easily overcome this to settle in a good position. Let’s hope Joey Haynes, who comes here for this ride only, will move forward quickly. 

Iley Boy looks seriously well handicapped for this type of race, on this level. He’s been a two times course and distance winner earlier this year, including of a 2lb higher mark than the current 51 handicap mark.

Those forms aren’t anything to scream about, but they are solid enough and backed up by the clock. Iley Boy ran to TS ratings of 51 and 54  and RPR’s of 60 and 61 respectively. 

So, if he is back to this sort of form he’ll be a massive player tonight. Ever since those wins he hasn’t shown too much, however he was probably too high in the mark – after a summer holiday, he returned last month, was disappointing in two starts, but I give him that he needed them. 

Now fitter, with near perfect conditions, off an excellent handicap mark, Iley Boy looks seriously overpriced.

Selection:
10pts win – Iley Boy @ 16/1 PP

Wednesday Selections: October, 17th 2018

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5.05 Bath: Class 5 Handicap, 1m3½f

The form that Doctor Knox has produced in three starts looks underappreciated as he steps into handicap company for the first time. Both his final start as a juvenile and most recent performance in a Novice race at Kempton are way better than the bare form suggests, in my mind.

Both times he was a long way beaten, however in front of him a few excellent individual, and those forms work out quite well. On his comeback run last month Doctor Knox made a bold move from a wide draw right from the start to challenge for the lead.

He paid the price for it behind two superior horses that where also up with the pace. The eventual winner has franked the form with a credible effort in Listed company already, and the runner-up was behind high class performers in previous starts also.

Doctor Knox kept going, though, and held on for third place. Now in his first handicap, a mark of 70 looks potentially underestimating him.

Selection:
10pts win – Doctor Knox @ 9/1 MB

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7.15 Newcastle: Class 6 Nursery, 6f

Gainsborough Hat looks a likely improver on his first handicap start. He didn’t set the world alight in three starts so far, but an opening mark off 64 doesn’t look too far fetched given he is well bred.

The son of Exceed And Excel should be well suited to the All-Weather as his sire has an excellent record on the sand, particularly over sprint distances, plus he is out of a Listed placed and All-Weather winning mare.

Selection:
10pts win – Gainsborough Hat @ 9/1 MB

Sunday Selections: October, 14th, 2018

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4.55 Goodwood: Class 3 Handicap, 6f

The Daley Express is already a course and distance winner and will enjoy any bit of additional rain falling between now and off time. He’s won well earlier this year off a similar handicap mark at Bath over 5.5f, granted not a race that looks particularly strong judged by subsequent form.

Nonetheless, the four year old gelding ran well in defeat on numerous occasions in the aftermath – without troubling the judges, it has to be said, though.

However, slowly he drops down to a decent mark now. Franny Norton is in the saddle; he’s boosting a 26.3% strike rate when riding for trainer Ronald Harris.

In a race where little stands out, The Daley Express looks one of the more likely sorts to put his nose in front today. With conditions to suit a big run is expected.

Selection:
10pts win – The Daley Express @ 14/1 PP

Sunday Selections: September, 30th 2018

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4.10 Epsom: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

A competitive 7f handicap as you would expect it that leaves it open for an upset. Nonetheless I feel top weight and fancied Dourada could have all the right answers today.

The colt is a two times course and distance winner, who ran well in defeat in a number of races this year. That says his last two efforts – both came over CD – were below par, although he had some fair excuses four weeks ago.

Now down to a mark off 80 again – a rating he came as close as a neck and was arguably a bit unlucky due to his positioning and the way the race was run when runner-up at Goodwood back in May – Dourada will encounter ideal conditions today.

This race also looks slightly easier in terms of rivals encountered compared to most of the other handicaps he contested this season. There is the added bonus of an excellent 3lb claimer on board to steer the four-year-old home today.

Selection:
10pts win – Dourada @ 5/1 PP

Saturday Selection: September, 1st 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

1.50 Sandown: Class 3 Handicap, 5f

New trainer and only his third run this year, Global Applause has plenty to prove today. Particularly as he has top weight to shoulder as well.

On the other hand, he drops in class into a race that may well be as competitive in nature as most of the others he ran in the past but arguably an easier one. Down to a mark of 97 it remains to be seen if he is up to it these days.

On past form, having run to a career highest time speed rating of 98 and 90+ on more occasions, Global Applause has surely got a fine chance. He was a smart juvenile, lightly raced as a three year old and certainly no disgraced when a less than two lengths beaten 5th in a red hot Doncaster Handicap of a mark off 98 in his final run in 2017.

This year has seen him back to form on his seasonal reappearance when runner-up at Newbury, though it is his most recent run at that very same venue back in May that has left big questions to answer.

Drop in class, drop in trip and back at Sandown with a bit of juice in the ground is hopefully enough to see Global Applause find back to his best.

Selection:
10pts win – Global Applause @ 11/1 MB

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