Tag Archives: Selections

Sunday Selections: Dublin Racing Festival

Dedigout and Paul Carberry

Big day at Leopardstown today – day two of the Dublin Racing Festival! The Irish Gold Cup is on the menu, serving a fin main dish.

That despite the weather turning for the worse. Saturday was such a lovely, sunny, crisp and clear winter day – 24 hours later it’s rather windy, grey and dirty. Still, there isn’t a lot of water coming down from the sky, which means the ground continued to dry out and remains on the good side.

That has seen plenty of on-runners already, and that in turn makes some of those races on the card today quite interesting betting contests.

So, unusually for me, I’ve found three pretty strong bets!

…….

2.25 Leopardstown: Grade B Handicap, 3 miles

Despite a 7lb raise in his handicap mark, unexposed Cuneo looks ready to follow-up on an impressive Christmas success that came over course and distance. He has the making of a better than 133 rated individual, even though future will clearly be over fences.

The last time at Leopardstown, in massive 28-runner strong field, he travelled always close enough to the pace but showed signs of greenness throughout, making it a tricky ride for Rachael Blackmore.

Nonetheless Cuneo’s eye-catching progress over three out had the making of a talented individual. And even though he nearly messed things up approaching the final fence, he ran on well, while appearing to be doing as much as needed to win the race.

There should be plenty more improvement to come with this fella and if he gets a clear run of things today should be hard to stop. Even more so as he seems to enjoy good ground.

Selection:
10pts win – Cuneo @ 7/2 MB

……..

3.35 Leopardstown: Grade 1 Irish Gold Cup, 3 miles

The flagship contest of the Dublin Racing Festival has been thrown wide open with the drying ground and the withdraws of quite a few interesting runners.

That should make it a clear thing between Al Boum Photo and Road To Respect? Noel Meade’s charges enjoys good ground maybe the little bit better and is proven class – he’ll be tough to beat. On the other hand, despite his overall positive record, he’s one who can also find trouble and get beaten when he shouldn’t – in my mind.

I’m yet to be fully convinced by Al Boum Photo, particularly on this ground. Punchestown Gold Cup hero Bellshill is the more attractive Willie Mullins runner.

As the field is much smaller now than initially thought, this could turn into a tactical contest also. And that’s why I feel this is much more open than the market suggests. Probably more open than it was if anyone would have lined up?

Edwulf will appreciate any drop of rain that’s currently falling. Will it be enough? Remains to be seen.

I am keen at a massive price – though falling all the time already – on the aging Outlander. He’s not getting any younger, his best days may be beyond him. But he ran okayish, without setting the world alight, in three starts this season.

I’m pretty sure this was his target all along. Outlander loves Leopardstown – he’s a different animal here – and he loves a bit of decent ground. He was runner-up in this very race last year. So he must rate a live chance. A better one than 4% in my book.

Selection:
10pts win – Outlander @ 24/1 MB

…….

4.10 Leopardstown: Grade A Handicap Chase, 2m 5f

Competitive contest in its nature, but I feel only few are weighted to win, particularly on the rather fast ground. I can make good cases for favourite Speaker Connolly – though it’s a skinny price, really, De Name Escapes Me or Cadmium, but it’s the ever improving Cubomania who catches my eye.

The 6-year-old has been progressive over fences, ever since having a wind operation during the summer. He won five times since then, and has been a highly creditable runner-up in his last two starts.

His latest effort at Fairyhouse in particular proved he still finds more. The favourite had a bit too much speed in the end but Cubomania stayed on very strongly after a good round of jumping.

The grey will enjoy the step up in trip and has quite an excellent record on better ground. So, while he has to defy a career highest mark, there is a good chance he can find the improvement needed – as long as he gets a clear run, which is the worry if he drops in in this big field.

Selection:
10pts win – Cubomania @ 13/1 MB

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Tuesday Selections: January, 29th 2019

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6.15 Wolverhampton, Class 5 Handicap, 6f 

At given prices I feel it’s worth siding with Kirby mount Big Time Maybe. The 4yo races second from a break and wind OP and is significantly below his last winning mark. He won of 5,- 11,- and 12 pounds higher in the past – albeit over 5f.

He’ll need to stretch out over this additional furlong, but there is reason to believe he can. His comeback run gives certainly hope he’ll improve from it. A fair race and effort, the winner, travelling at the back of the field, won subsequently. Big Time Maybe set a fair pace and only faded late.

He’s got a good draw today, so should be able to be up there, may even dominate and set a pace that suits him most. With fitness assured and the breathing fine, hopefully, he may be able to take advantage of a slipping mark.

Selection:
10pts win – Big Time Maybe @ 12/1 MB

Tuesday Selections: January, 22nd 2019

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7.15 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

The British Lion won off 5lb higher over course and distance twelve months ago – that form looks strong and has been franked. He never went quite close ever since, though ran a few fair races in better grade and off higher handicap ratings.

The 4-year-old gelding has dropped significantly in his mark, despite two okayish efforts in his last two starts, which came after a break.

He Johnston yard is in fine order right now and The British Lion has another engagement next week Monday – so here are more than a few hints that a big performance can be expected today.

Selection:
10pts win – The British Lion @ 13/2 MB

……

7.45 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 6 furlongs

The drift in the betting is a worry but I feel there is a strong case to be made for Bobby Joe Leg here.

First time blinkered, dropping down to class 6 for the first time, a 1lb below his last winning mark, even though he also was successful off 4lb higher, a CD scorer who has TS and RPR ratings that give him a top chance if he’s anywhere near that today.

The jockey booking isn’t inspiring, which is a concern – but James Sullivan only comes here for this one ride – let’s hope he make it count.

Bobby Joe Leg usually goes from the front. This looks to be a fast race. He stays a bit further as a strong 7f effort here at Newcastle last year proved. He may the answer to a tricky race.

Selection:
10pts win – Bobby Joe Leg @ 18/1 PP

Saturday Selections: January, 19th 2019

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1.25 Lingfield: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Super competitive race; there is the unknown quantity of Irish recruit Sheberghan. Hard to know what to get from him. Short favourite Forbidden Planet looks ready to defy a 9lb penalty after an impressive DC win when last seen.

And yet, conditions today pointing toward Emenem, who’s somewhat underappreciated in the market here.

The 5 year old comes from a break, but runs well fresh, usually. He also returns to the scene of his best efforts. He’s 4-2-2 over course and distance and achieved his two highest RPR’s – 99 – over the 10f trip at Lingfield.

The most recent of those, nearly a year ago in a hot class 3 Handicap, when runner-up of a mark off 93, is arguably the best piece of form in this field in my book. Emenem is down to 84 now after a string of underwhelming performances.

Underwhelming only by this high standard set. So, he looks potentially well in here – he will most likely enjoy this small field as his record proves, which he may be able to dominate or at least sit tight behind the pace. Emenem should be in the perfect spot to challenge when it matters most.

Selection:
10pts win – Emenem @ 9/1 MB

…….

3.40 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6 furlongs

The market leaders appear strong but are beatable all the same. I am happy to take them on with Big Time Maybe who’s fresh off a wind OP and drops to a sexy mark.

Fitness is a question mark after the break and whether the wind issue has been rectified. The way he dropped out of races showed he had a problem there obviously. If the OP has done any good, then Big Time Maybe could be supremely well handicapped here judged on past performance.

He’s ran a handful of times to much higher time speed ratings than his current handicap mark and achieved many times much higher RPR’s too. Mostly over 5f, however he ran only 3x over 6f on the AW when odds suggested he wasn’t there to win.

In this small field the race could be run to suit him the most. Master Kirby is in the saddle. So well worth the risk that is undoubtedly attached with Big Time Maybe, who on the other hand could also have way too much in hand for this lot.

 Selection:
10pts win – Big Time Maybe @ 6/1 MB

…….

7.45 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

Iley Boy has been running well lately. He took advantage of a slipping mark at Kempton but couldn’t follow up subsequently. However, I felt his last two runs were better than the bare form suggests.

It is probably true he’s a better horse at Kempton, still he travelled pretty well over CD the last two times here; particularly the most recent effort when 4th behind Apex Predator is a strong piece of form where his performance has to be upgraded due to the fact he didn’t quite get the best of runs.

A mark of 56 leaves little wriggle room most likely, but he’s handicapped to go close. He’s got an excellent draw tonight and Joey Haynes, who rode Iley Boy to victory at Kempton also, comes here for this one ride only.

Selection:
10pts win – Iley Boy @ 11/1 MB

Friday Selections: January, 18th 2019

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3.05 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 5 furlongs

Second up after a wind OP, Fareeq looks set for a big run once more after a fine runner-up effort over course and distance at the end of last month.

He was a clear second in a race that looks fair form franked by the winner and third. He wasn’t beaten up that day, only ridden hands and heels. He remains on the same mark, which judged on past performances gives him a massive chance – if the wind OP does the trick.

The draw is a slight concern, so is the minimum trip if there wouldn’t be a lot of pace on. But this should be a pacey race, which will suit.

Selection:
10pts win – Fareeq @ 10/3 MB

……..

6.45 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 2 miles

Risking that today may not be the day as a price drift already suggests,  Champagne Champ is still a massive race in a very winnable race.

The 7-year-old was a long way beaten on his comeback run after a break and wind OP when punted into 5/1 second favourite last month over CD. That suggests he must have shown some positive signs at home, I believe.

He drops another couple of pounds in the handicap mark, which gives him on past form a superb chance. He doesn’t have be at his best today, but simply fit and healthy.

Rod Millman has an excellent record with long-shots in Handicaps, even more so at Kempton. So the price drift isn’t so much of a worry. A top jockey is on board – so at massive odds I give it a shot.

Selection:
10pts win – Champagne Champ @ 25/1 PP

…….

7.45 Kempton: Class 7 Handicap, 6 furlongs

Le Manege Enchante looks the obvious choice here. Too obvious, perhaps? He showed clear signs of returning to form lately, particularly earlier this month at Chelmsford when n unlucky second in a tight finish.

Only 1lb higher gives him still a good chance to win, even more so as he drops down to a class 7 Handicap. Track and trip will be fine, and a good draw is a bonus.

Jockey Raul Da Silva comes here only for this one ride. So this is an obvious chance at a good price.

Selection:
10pts win – Le Manege Enchante @ 10/3 MB

Wednesday Selections: January 16th 2019

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

6.00 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 6 furlongs

Another chance for Miracle Works after his recent third place finish at Newcastle over 5f. I was keen on him that day and that hasn’t change ever since, as he is stepping up to 6f again today.

The minimum trip was a bit too sharp as it turned out, nonetheless this imposing grey ran a fine race in a competitive race, finishing strongly to claim third.

Even though he continues to be a maiden, this is only his fourth Handicap start and the fact remains his handicap debut last year over course and distance off 2lb higher rates super form in this field.

Now the third time running after a break as well, after a pipe opener and the recent excellent performance, up to what appears to be his optimum trip off a mark he could still better – Miracle Works has a fine opportunity to get finally off the mark today.

Selection:
10pts win – Miracle Works @ 8/1 MB

Tuesday Selections: January, 15th 2019

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7.45 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 7 furlongs

Today is the day the handbreak comes off for Six Strings. I was already keen on the 5-year-old the last time here at Kempton, but as it turned out he was rather on pacemaker duties for a well-fancied stable mate that day, going from the front like a lunatic.

Number One jockey Robert Winston is on board this timeand Six Strings has fallen another 3lb in the handicap mark for the latest effort – a mark he seems certain to be well handicapped of, judged on past form.

What applied on the 4th of January does aply very much today also:

Six Strings had a number of yard changes and has seen his colours dramatically lowered from contesting competitively hot class 2 Handicaps of marks closer to 90, to falling now down to class 5 Handicaps on the All-Weather, rated 72.

It has to be said that Six Strings actually ran rather decent in 2018 despite all of this – the only really bad runs, in my book at least, were the two most recent efforts, both over a mile.

He drops to 7f today, a trip that’s more what he wants, most likely. His only success came over 6f to date but the additional furlong looks a real possibility, particularly if there isn’t too much pace on and he can either set the temp himself or track a modest pace.

Selection:
10pts win – Six Strings @ 4/1 MB