Tag Archives: Selections

Tuesday Selections: January 23rd, 2018

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3.40 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

This is a pretty deep race for a low grade handicap on a random January Tuesday on the Southwell Fibresand. Any number of horses could easily have a fair shout – but it is the new Michael Appleby recruit Canford Thompson that may hold all the aces.

The five year old gelding remains a maiden on the flat after 11 starts, although he won a maiden hurdle in 2016. Nonetheless, he is a super interesting individual after catching the eye on the last two occasions at Lingfield.

Back from a near year long break back in November over 2 miles, followed up in early December over 12 furlongs – in both races Canford Thompson ran an awful lot better than the bare form suggests, as in both cases he made eye-catching progress from over 4f out on the wide outside. The sectionals back both performances up as quite significant in the context of these moves and are valid excuses for him finishing tired in the final furlong.

The forms of those races, particularly the 12f contest in December, work out really well. They give the form credit and upgrade his performances in both contests in my book. Regardless, the handicapper dropped him 3lb to a career lowest mark.

I believe Canford Thompson is incredibly well handicapped if receiving a more solid & economical ride. Concerns I do have over the surface which he tries for the first time in combination with his habit to start slowly.

This more demanding surface and a hopefully good pace might be what he wants but it easily could not suit him if he finds himself behind early on when blowing the start. We shall see.

However, then he’s of even more interest the next time. It is worth a try, though, and the fact that Alistair Rawlinson is in the saddle, who has a superb record for the Appleby yard at this course, suggests a big run is certainly expected.

Selection:
10pts win – Canford Thompson @ 11/2 Bet365

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4.10 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1 mile

Take out the favourite Indigo Princess, who may not be able to reproduce her massive performance from three days ago, and you are left with a race wide open for anyone who is on a “going day” to take it.

Despite four poor performances to date, long-shot Shackles might be the answer here. He hasn’t shown an awful lot, though, with a bit of goodwill there were some positives to take from his comeback run at Wolverhampton in December on his first start for the Nicky Richards yard.

Only four career starts, this here will be his second run in a handicap, and he can do so off a rating lowered to 53 now. There is a fair chance Shackles is a bit better than that. On pedigree the jury is out particularly on the question of the Fibresand surface – though, on the dam side is plenty of hope with the dam’s sire having an excellent record at this track.

Shackles was a late April foal, so turning four now, he may needed the time to mature, so his year long absence before his reappearance last month might actually be a good thing.

Eye-catching jockey booking with Paul Mulrennan who has only two rides on the card while Nicky Richards has only this one runner – Mulrennan has to weight nearly two hours until the final race on the card until he can go home after his initial ride.

Interestingly, Richards had only one runner at Southwell up until now – ridden by Paul Mulrennan. It was a winner.

Selection:
10pts win – Shackles @ 25/1 Bet365

Sunday Selections: January, 21st 2018

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1.55 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Six year old Frozen Lake hasn’t exactly been firing for his new trainer yet, however, he has plenty going for himself today and could be hard to stop if he hasn’t went sour. Clearly, the son of Elusive Quality deserves his chance in this open, yet very winnable race.

Frozen drops down to a career lowest mark as well as for the first time into a class 6 Handicap. This is the easiest task he faced ever and while his latest forms aren’t reading well, still, his March 2017 run here at Chelmsford over a mile is a very strong piece of form on offer.

A return to anything near it will see him winning easily today, given this is an easier race, he’s 9lb lower and has the aid of a red hot 5lb claimer on board.

The gelding has one issue: the start. He often rears and is on the back foot right away. That can be a problem here at Chelmsford where the kickback can be severe in my opinion.

Nonetheless, he could have too much in hand to use his stamina to pick up one after another in the home straight and hopefully gets there when it matters most.

Selection:
10pts win – Frozen Lake @ 6/1 Bet365

Sunday Selections: January, 14th 2018

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Another runner-up, would you believe it? Presence Process seemed to get there, just to finish 2nd eventually. The fourth time this week hitting the post. Frustrating, particularly as the majority were double figure prices. Well, I got to carry on. That’s part of the game.

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2.55 Southwell: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 4f

The favourite could well have too much in the locker, seeking a fourth victory in a handful of starts since October. Nonetheless this seems to be quite an open affair to me, and I would not be surprised if there is someone causing an upset.

This someone could be longshot Cosmelli. If he’s not in here to run his mark further down but will be ridden to merit, he’s a chance to go close, I feel.

Cosmelli found life difficult coming over to Britain from Italy. He raced in strong races off high marks, yet was generally not disgraced in a good deal of them. A key piece of form is his 8th place in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle – only 3 lengths beaten in a race that has been franked multiple times.

As for recent form, I feel those last three runs since being gelded have been better than the bare form suggests. Particularly at Newcastle in a strong Conditions Stakes where he had to give weight away to most in the field, he did quite well, particularly if looking at the sectionals but also the visual fact that he only dropped away inside the two final furlongs.

It is noteworthy that Cosmelli achieved RPR’s of 90, 94 and 89 in his last three runs on the All-Weather – his handicap mark dropped to 87 in the meantime. He also drops in class – this is much easier than many of the races he ran in over the last year or so. So I can see he could outrun his price….

If he acts on fibresand. I can see this work, though. While he drops to 1m4f, the fact Southwell emphasizes stamina generally, it could suit him well if there is a decent pace, too.

It has to be remembered that Cosmelli is a Listed winner over 1m 3f in Italy and is pretty well bred for an Italian individual. His dam’s other offspring has all been at least placed in pattern class.

Selection:
10pts – Cosmelli @ 33/1 Bet365

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3.55 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

It probably looks mad to select another longshot that has seemingly no hope to do anything here. And results may say so tomorrow at 4pm. Nonetheless, Emigrated has in my book a chance in this really poor race.

Realistically there is the favourite and not much else in the field. Even though with form in the book, Chaucer’s Tale looks hardly dangerous. Neither does Scribner Creek, however, a yard change may see him revived.

Still, Emigrated, despite a mark that can’t get much lower, still a maiden after 18 runs under rules – “only” ten on the flat, though – he has shown improvement in two of his last three starts for his new trainer Derek Shaw.

Off a break in December for the new yard, on his sole Southwell start, he broke badly and never really settled, as a consequence got a mouthful of kickback and eventually had to turn widest from 4f out. Surprisingly easily did he pick up rival after rival to look in with a real shout over 2f out, nonetheless.

Probably in need of the run and paying tribute to the bad start, he faded badly in the end. That says this runs is much stronger than the bare form suggests. Interestingly Emigrated followed up with another pretty good run at Chelmsford only four days later.

A fine fiftth, less than three lengths beaten, while not getting the best of runs; one week later his third run within eleven days, was then a bit too much and I would not read too much into it. Rather see that for his new yard he put together two subsequent performances that can be classified as eye-catching.

Back after a four week long break, he might be perfectly set up for a big performance on a surface he has proven he can act on. The trip is a slight question mark; does he really stay a mile?

I feel Emigration deserves a chance here. At the given price it is more hope than anything else. But in a poor race like this, an upset wouldn’t be a major shock at all.

Selection:
10pts win – Emigration @ 25/1 Bet365

Saturday Selections: January, 13th 2018

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3.10 Lingfield: Class 6, 10 furlongs

This is a poor race, and therefore an open contest. That says, half the field can easily be discarded. The other half could go close, but doesn’t necessarily have to.

Maiden Presence Process falls into this category, even though he may not stand out as an obvious winner at first glance.

However, I believe he has some things going for himself: he second up after a break and his comeback run at this venue over further was fine, in fact quite eye-catching, actually.

He pulled hard early on – so the drop to 10f will likely suit – and had to finish from an impossible position while not getting a ride that seemed to have the intention of finishing as good as possible.

He still ran on well enough in the closing stages and I take this as a sign of better things t come now. Key is the fact Presence Process carries a career lowest handicap mark, a further 3lb claim by decent apprentice Charlie Bennett helps too.

A pivotal piece of form for him – while he looked half-promising earlier in his career – came twelve months ago here at Lingfield over a mile when he finished 4th in a really hot race.

That day he hit a flat spot around 3f out when the pace quickened, but was then also hampered entering home straight, yet ran on strongly to finish 4th. The form has been franked multiple times by several horses in the race, no less so by the winner who was subsequently Group 3 placed.

Presence Process tried the 10f trip only once, on turf at Windsor from a much higher mark. I feel this is his optimum trip and of a mark off 55 he has a real chance in this race.

Selection:
10pts win – Presence Process @ 14/1 Skybet

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Friday Selections: January, 11th 2018

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7.15 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

A highly competitive affair where half the field has a realistic chance to be in with a chance. That makes it a race difficult to assess for bookies and therefore there could be some wrong prices here. In my book the 14-16/1 available for My Amigo is certainly too big.

The five year old gelding has been running well- and better than the bare form suggested on a number of occasions this season – his first for the Burke yard. Nonetheless he has dropped down the weights to what is now a really dangerous mark.

He had only three starts on the All-Weather to date; a mile on AW debut was too far, however the imposing grey impressed when third in a hot race that works out well form wise the next time when dropped to 7f.

He followed up with another big performance, despite only finishing 7th. The second widest draw was no help over the 7f trip at Wolverhampton where a turn comes soon after the start, and My Amigo made life very difficult for himself when missing the kick.

He had a lot to do to catch up with the field, travelling wide for most parts of the race then and also turning widest for home, however finished the race well enough; at least on the clock.

Nonetheless the handicapper gives him a chance, taking another 2lb off. Given My Amigo ran – either on turf or AW – in his seven starts this season five times to RPR’s higher than his new mark off 73, means, with a top jockey booked, the only runner for the Burke yard on Friday has a serious chance to go close.

Selection: 
10pts win – My Amigo @ 16/1 Bet365

Friday Selections: 25th August 2017

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That was special, wasn’t it? Yet again. Enable keeps giving and giving and giving. What a star filly once more in the care of John Gosden. Sure, she was entitled to win and to win with something to spare. Still, to demolish her high class rivals in the way she did – you simply have to be impressed.

All systems go for the Arc now. She is a short favourite to land the biggest of them all. If she turns up in top form she will take plenty of beating. That says we know the Arc is a unique race in its own right and in a big field the draw can alienate chances in the blink of an eye.

Anyways; that’s for another day. For now, sit back and enjoy racing at its best:

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6.20 Salisbury: Class 5 Nursery, 1m

27 alerts in my tracker this morning – yet only one single selection remains after a long morning of intense study. This week has not been a lucky one so far. Can a Richard Hannon trained colt turn the table?

Galactic is his name and he is quite a well bred son of Roderic O’connor. Three obligatory starts in maidens, now first time in a Nursery and upped to a more suitable 1 mile trip – off a pretty handy opening mark, I reckon Galatctic can go really well in this very winnable race.

Selection:
10pts win – Galactic @ 11/2 Bet365