Tag Archives: Sprint

Sunday Selections: January, 5th 2029

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2.30 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 6 furlongs

This is a highly competitive event, despite the small field. This could be called a minefield from a betting perspective – certainly a race to take plenty of interest in for future races.

Nonetheless there is value on offer because the current favourite is too short in the betting.

Al Suil Eile posted a fibe course debut confirmed by an excellent top speed rating. The drop to 6f may suit. However he has to show it first given the raise in his handicap mark doesn’t make him an obviously well-handicapped horse.

Our Charlie Brown is one for the tracker. Once back over 7 furlongs he’ll be of high interest I reckon thanks to a falling handicap mark. In the past he ran much faster than his current mark suggest on turf the unique 7 furlong distance and shown positive signs on the All-Weather too. Today won’t be his day, though.

It boils down to a battle between Liamba and Global Melody. Both meet again three weeks after Liamba got the better of the two over this course and distance. Liamba ran to topspeed 70 that day but his mark has only been raised by two pounds He is of obvious interest and will surely go close again.

However Global Melody is a much bigger price – slightly drifting, which is a negative (has an engagement early next week, keep an eye on him) – bigger than it should be, given it was a close call the other day and a 2lb turnaround and better circumstances in-running can change the scenario.

Global Melody didn’t get into the best of positions following the start that day, had to eat fibresand for the first four furlongs and also didn’t get a clear run entering the home straight. His tendency to hang to his right doesn’t help either, yet he finished strongly (posted fast split for final furlong), resulting in 2nd place and a 67 topspeed rating.

He ran to TS 64 over CD weeks earlier and looked like the winner in his next race over 7 furlongs on the fibresand only to throw it away hanging badly in the final furlong. There is a little concern after his latest lackluster showing at Wolverhampton. Though, hopefully only an off day and he returns to form on the fibresand today.

Selection:
10pts win – Global Melody @ 8/1 MB

Wednesday Selections: January, 1st 2020

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3.40 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Only two that appeal: Zapper Cass has potentially more to offer on this surface and has backed up twice in 2019 that he is capable of running fast enough to win off his now lowered handicap mark. Recent form isn’t on his side, though, and he is short enough in the market.

Warrior’s Valley is fine alternative. He also has shown a few times that he is potentially faster than his current rating suggests, having equaled or exceeded a 67 topspeed rating on three occasions in 2019.

He enjoys the minimum trip on the fibresand having run his best races over this CD in the past. A 67 handicap mark gives him a fair shout as the gelding also seems to hit form after a decent effort at Lingfield when last seen.

The draw could be lower in an ideal world, but I hope he jumps as well as he usually does, gets to the front and draws the field to his tail where he’s then tough to catch once in front.

Selection:
10pts win – Warrior’s Valley @ 6/1 MB

Monday Selections: September, 23rd 2019

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4.45 Hamilton: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

It was impossible to get on the early prices but I believe Rickyroadboy is still a superb bet in this race.

With the ground coming up soft it should be perfect over the minimum trip for Rickyroadboy, who’s fitted with a visor for the first time and can be expected to go hard from the front here, which we have seen on Sunday certainly wasn’t a disadvantage over the sprint trips at Hamilton.

That aside, Rickyroadboy is superbly well-handicapped. He started the season of a 13lb higher mark and has sharply fallen after three consequentially poor efforts. That is the nagging doubt, of course, that he showed nothing at all in the last number of weeks. However, earlier this season, he performed rather well.

Certainly in the context of this race and his current handicap rating of 55, given he is 4lb lower than his last winning mark but also ran two times this season to 55+ topspeed ratings (plus an RPR of 70).

With conditions likely to suit, new headgear, potentially a tactical advantage, a field where nothing else really stands out and a lowly handicap mark, Rickyroadboy looks ready for a big run.

Selection:
10pts win – Rickyroadboy @ 17/2 MB

 

Sunday Selections: September, 22nd 2019

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2.00 Hamilton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

JJ Feane may have found a superb opportunity for one of his horses across the pond once again. He’s got a 25% win- and 50% place record with his horses running in UK handicaps over the last number of years. This is poor race which looks a big chance for Fugacious to get his head in front.

The gelding is fitted with first time head-gear, which may bring out a bit of improvement. If it does then he should have too much on his plate for the locals, I reckon. As an April foal he was always likely to get better with time, but he already showed plenty of promise – for this lowly level – this summer.

His Curragh 4th in a highly competitive handicap over 6 furlongs – form that has worked out well since then – is the standout piece of form in this race. Off a 68 handicap mark he finished strongly, only 1¼ lengths beaten, running to a topspeed rating of 65, which is believable.

He followed up with another fine performance at Gowran Park stepping up an additional furlong, though a mile at competitive Galway and a drop to the minum distance didn’t quite saw him to best effect.

Fugacious should, however, enjoy the 6 furlongs with cut in the ground today. The 3lb claim of Harrison Shaw, who has already ridden a winner for this yard, is an additional bonus.

Selection:
10pts win – Fugacious @ 5.4/1 MB

……..

3.00 Hamilton: Class 6 Handicap, 5 furlongs

If David’s Beauty can find back to form she’ll be a big runner in this poor race. She has been going close twice this season already, most notably when beaten on the line at Chepstow in June.

That day she ran to a career best, in fact, achieving a 59 topspeed rating. Watching the race it’s easy to see why. On the widest outside away from pace she had a lot going against herself from that perspective, but the mare rallied strongly and only got beaten by a strongly finishing horse on the other side she couldn’t see in her blinkers while already for quite a bit in front.

She followed up with another strong performance a few weeks later at Carlisle with a half lengths beaten third. However, David’s Beauty’s last three runs were poor. As a consequence she has fallen in her handicap mark down to 55, which is a pound lower than that massive Chepstow run.

Given she has achieved seven times throughout her career topspeed ratings of 55 and higher, and ran to a career best earlier this year, it is believable that she can turn her form around again. If so she’s the one to beat here.

Selection:
10pts win – David’s Beauty @ 11.5/1 MB

Saturday Selections II: September, 21st 2019

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6.20 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

I might rue my decision in the end, because I strongly feel that Consequences is most likely a well-handicapped individual. He’s ran to higher topspeed than his current mark, he did so, in fact, when last seen at Chelmsford when nothing more could have gone wrong for him. Untouched by the handicapper, he has a massive chance if things fall right for him.

However, he is an individual who seems to draw misfortune. Hence at prices I go with the other I fancy nearly as strongly, who also appears to be potentially “well in”: Tathmeen.

Whether 6 furlongs is truly his trip is still kind of a question to be answered. Given he is 1 from 8 over the trip (the one win is incredibly poor form) and has won more races over the minimum trip. But on the other hand his career best speed ratings came over 6 furlongs.

Down to a mark of 72 now, Tathmeen has ran to TS 76 on the AW and 79 on turf in the past. A career best on the All-Weather was achieved back in February at this track, albeit over 5 furlongs, when he ran out a strong victory, form that is highly credible and he did so of his current 72 OR.

Fine 3 lb claimer William Cox is on board. With a few horses already out, the draw that looked pretty bad initially doesn’t look quite as challenging any more.

Selection:
10pts win – Tathmeen @ 11/1 MB

 

Wednesday Selections: September, 18th 2019

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1.50 Sandown: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Leo Minor has fallen a long way in his handicap mark since finishing 2nd at Leicester twelve months ago off a 89 mark and running to a 88 topspeed rating that day.

The gelding hasn’t come close ever since but hasn’t ran so badly as the dramatic 22lb drop in OR suggest, in my mind.

The lowered mark and grades he raced in have seen Leo Minor produce a number of fair performances this season, as when last seen of his current 67 rating, a decent runner-up at Bath.

He also ran to a 68 topspeed rating this summer already, backing it up with near similar TS ratings this season a a number of occasions, suggesting he is weighted to win soon of his current handicap mark.

A first time tongue tie is tried today. Possibly that’ll help. Certainly the booking of 3lb top apprentice Cieren Fallon helps. From the plum draw he hopefully can steer Leo Minor to a prominent position grabbing the rail leading to victory this afternoon.

Selection:
10pts win – Leo Minor @ 17/2 MB

Thursday Selections: August, 15th 2019

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4.45 Yarmouth: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

The favourite Simba Samba is likely to go well here, but has to prove full effectiveness over the minimum trip yet. At a bigger price I’m much more intrigued by Arnoul Of Metz who is still a turf maiden, but has ran well in a number of races, often looking like a horse that just needs to get the right break to get his head in front.

Of course if a horse is “unlucky” again and again it probably is not down to luck and more to lack of talent. Arnoul Of Metz is not a classy individual, for sure. But he only missed out narrowly on the Wolverhampton All-Weather last month and got hampered or buried behind a wall of horses in his last two turf starts at Chepstow and Musselburgh.

On his current handicap mark of 54 he offers the potential to find a bit more, if things fall his way finally. He already ran to a 56 topspeed rating when finishing off strongly at Muselburgh in May, when arguably unlucky.

The fast ground is sure to suit. The usual 5lb claimer is back on board. There is plenty to like about Arnoul Of Metz in a pretty winnable race.

Selection:
10pts win – Arnoul Of Metz @ 9/1 MB

……

6.40 Chepstow: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Cool Strutter looks ready for a massive run tonight. The 7-year-old doesn’t win often, but has fallen to a really low mark that should see him being certainly well in against poor opposition.

He’s ran to higher top-speed ratings twice within his last seven starts, suggesting he is capable of doing better than a 48 handicap mark.

Conditions will likely suit Cool Strutter. He’s won with cut in the ground and has been multiple times places when it’s really soft. The 6 furlongs seem ideal in these conditions, and the track should favour his running style also.

The added bonus of a fair 5lb claimer in the saddle make this a standout betting proposition in my mind.

Selection:
10pts win – Cool Strutter @ 6.2/1 MB

Monday Selections: July, 29th 2019

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6.50 Ffos Las: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Handytalk looks bound for a big performance today fitted with blinkers for the first time, while dropping markedly in grade with a top jockey on the back.

He’s ran really well earlier this summer over 6f-8f trips, placed twice and winning a 6f contest at Salisbury. He’s only a pound higher today but proved in the past to be capable of bettering that, having run two times to 76+ topspeed ratings.

Conditions will be fine today and this looks a much easier race than what he encountered the last two times.

Selection:
10pts win – Handytalk @ 7/2PP

……..

8.30 Ffos Las: Class 6 Handicap, 7.5f

Intriguing to see Cuttin’ Edge returning off a break and wind OP here at Ffos Las today. He’s got another entry later this week, which could suggest the Muir team is hoping for a big run and quick turnout.

Those vague hopes aside, Cuttin’ Edge is a hot contender in this low grade handicap if back on song, given he has fallen down to a mark of 58. He’s been running to topspeed ratings of 58 and higher a number of times on both turf and All-Weather, so if his breathing issues are rectified, he’d be bang here in this class.

Trip and ground are fine. The Muir yard has also a fine record in Ffos Las handicaps, even more so if Martin Dwyer is riding. Interesting enough, this is William Muir’s only runner today.

Selection:
10pts win – Cuttin’ Edge @ 14/1 MB

Thursday Selections: July, 25th 2019

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8.25 Doncaster: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Wide open contest but the one who’s quite intriguing is Oberyn Martel, particularly with De Sousa booked for the ride. If the 3-year-old could recapture any of his juvenile form, or for that matter, what he did on his seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton back in February, he’d have a massive chance.

This lad obviously went the wrong way and even of revised marks didn’t look like going close whatsoever over the last while. Nonetheless he remains of interest for me, now down to a highly dangerous mark.

He has a career best topspeed rating of 83 to his name, which tops anything in this field, and he has matched a 93 RPR on both turf and the All-Weather, which suggests he was not too long ago quite a decent horse – and legitimately rated way higher than right now.

Conditions should suit today. Top jockey in the saddle. Oberyn Martel is surely bound for a big ride if he still has the appetite for racing. On the other hand he could absolutely bomb out. It’s worth the risk at given prices.

Selection:
10pts win – Oberyn Martel @ 10/1 MB

Friday Selections: July, 5th 2019

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2.00 Doncaster: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

Society Queen is a risky proposition given she tends to mess up at the beginning of a race, but this is not a particularly competitive race in nature, certainly an easier one than she encountered this year so far, the good ground is a big bonus and she has has dropped to a sexy mark.

The 3-year-old did well as a juvenile winning twice, having ran to a topspeed rating of 80 already, and showed promise earlier this season as well, despite her starting problems.

Now down to a class 4 race, back down to the minimum trip as well, in hands of Tony Hamilton who already won on her, I feel she’s overpriced in this contest.

Selection:
10pts win – Society Queen @ 6/1 MB

……….

6.40 Beverley: Fillies’ Novice Stakes, 5f

Odds-on favourite Mighty Spirit has experience and ran well at Royal Ascot, but I believe is vulnerable to improvers, as a topspeed rating of 84 is decent, but nothing more than that.

Much more of interest at prices are Living In The Past and Aryaaf, who both made their debut in the same Ripon maiden last month and both bottled the start and showed plenty of inexperience. Both finished well and offer plenty of upside.

I’ll go with the daughter of Kodiac, Aryaaf, though, as she will have learned plenty from a tough first day in school, racing on the outside far away from the rail, with plenty of daylight, unsure what do, after missing the break, pulling hard, wandering around a bit….

She should improve plenty from that, also for the much better ground and as a daughter of Kodiac should relish Beverley – her daddy has a superb record here with his two-year-old offspring.

Selection:
10pts win – Aryaaf @ 6/1 MB