Tag Archives: Sprint

Friday Selections: July, 5th 2019

DSC_1062

2.00 Doncaster: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

Society Queen is a risky proposition given she tends to mess up at the beginning of a race, but this is not a particularly competitive race in nature, certainly an easier one than she encountered this year so far, the good ground is a big bonus and she has has dropped to a sexy mark.

The 3-year-old did well as a juvenile winning twice, having ran to a topspeed rating of 80 already, and showed promise earlier this season as well, despite her starting problems.

Now down to a class 4 race, back down to the minimum trip as well, in hands of Tony Hamilton who already won on her, I feel she’s overpriced in this contest.

Selection:
10pts win – Society Queen @ 6/1 MB

……….

6.40 Beverley: Fillies’ Novice Stakes, 5f

Odds-on favourite Mighty Spirit has experience and ran well at Royal Ascot, but I believe is vulnerable to improvers, as a topspeed rating of 84 is decent, but nothing more than that.

Much more of interest at prices are Living In The Past and Aryaaf, who both made their debut in the same Ripon maiden last month and both bottled the start and showed plenty of inexperience. Both finished well and offer plenty of upside.

I’ll go with the daughter of Kodiac, Aryaaf, though, as she will have learned plenty from a tough first day in school, racing on the outside far away from the rail, with plenty of daylight, unsure what do, after missing the break, pulling hard, wandering around a bit….

She should improve plenty from that, also for the much better ground and as a daughter of Kodiac should relish Beverley – her daddy has a superb record here with his two-year-old offspring.

Selection:
10pts win – Aryaaf @ 6/1 MB

Advertisements

Thursday Selections: June, 27th 2019

Newmarket July Course

It’s been quiet in my blog lately – down to rather intense work commitments and a subsequent well needed rest, including as little contact with laptops, mobile phones and any type of digital screens as possible – I saw Royal Ascot only from afar, meaning a few highlights in the evening, that was all.

No problem: betting wise the Royal meeting was a disaster all the last few years, so missing it from that perspective isn’t a bad thing. So back to bread and butter now, a bit more time on hand, slightly fresher after a mental break as well: roll on those low-grade handicaps from Monday to Friday….

I’ve got some other interesting content in the locker as well: writing some sort of a “betting manual”, ‘Golden Rules’ to take into account, to help those who love horse racing but struggle to get some half decent return on their investment to make better decisions in the future.

Nothing ground breaking. It’s all already there. Plenty of smart people – dare I say smarter than I am – have produced similar things. Though, from time to time people ask me how I do my betting, make decisions and win in the long-run – so this will be an answer to that….. to be released within the next two weeks, I presume.

::::::::::::

2.35 Nottingham: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

The only three-year-old in the field, Across The Sea, is an interesting contender is this wide open contest. She looks a rather outlandish price, if you forgive her a recent disappointing effort at Carlisle, when she was a well beaten favourite.

I trust she wasn’t right day, it was a race in bottomless ground also; Across The Sea ran a massive race on her seasonal reappearance three weeks earlier though, in a big field, finishing 4th not beaten by a lot, finishing second in her group.

She can race of 3lb lower today, in what may well turn out to be ideal conditions. It’s noteworthy that Across The Sea ran to a top speed rating of 74 as a juvenile, so down to a mark of 73, with potentially a bit of improvement still to be unlocked, this is a dangerous place to be in one would want to lay her.

Selection:
10pts win – Across The Sea @ 10.5/1 MB

…….

7.05 Hamilton: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

The change of yard will need to revitalize Amazing Alba; if it does the filly looks poised for a big run. Her recent form doesn’t suggest she is close to win, on the other hand, even leaving a first start for trainer Alistair Whillains aside, she drops to a tasty handicap mark.

Still generally low enough mileage to believe she isn’t a finished article yet, even though Amazing Alba is winless in eight career starts, she was in the money half the time. Further to this, she ran to a top speed rating of 69 on debut last year, suggesting she has a bit of talent.

Without winning, she ran to a 63 TS ratings in her final start as a juvenile, giving the clear indication that her now revised mark of 61 does provide her a massive chance, as long as the appetite for racing is still somewhere lurking inside her.

Selection:
10pts win – Amazing Alba @ 5/1 MB

Wednesday Selections: April, 10th 2019

DSC_1062

2.00 Nottingham: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

Aloysius Lilius looks the sort to improve with age. He already showed plenty of promise as a juvenile over the minimum trip last year, though.

He ran to a TS rating of 73, and the majority of his forms looks rock solid, in fact can be upgraded as they worked out strongly.

A mark off 71 offers opportunity on what is only Aloysius Lilius’s third handicap run. He showed his best on fast ground last year, so both trip and ground will likely suit today in an open contest.

Selection:
10pts win – Aloysius Lilius @ 15.5/1 MB

Friday Selections: March, 22nd 2019

DSC_1062

2.40 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6 furlongs

Andrea Atzeni has only one ride today, and that is in this low-grade handicap at Lingfield. He’s riding Tavener again, whom he already steered to three victories in the past, most recently last Tuesday.

The seven-year-old gelding is on a roll, having his fifth start this months. He’s finished with plenty of credit most of the times, coming agonisingly close on his penultimate run and finally got the head in front when last seen.

Tavener did that nicely from the front running good fractions and earning a fine TS rating as well. He’s turned out under a penalty today, but given past form and ratings he ran to, it seems reasonable to assume he still is potentially well handicapped.

A good draw will certainly help today, even though he may face a little bit of competition for the pace, he should be in an ideal position swinging for home and have enough in the tank to win another low-grade race over a CD he thoroughly enjoys.

Selection:
10pts win – Tavener @ 7/2 PP

Wednesday Selections: January 16th 2019

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

6.00 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 6 furlongs

Another chance for Miracle Works after his recent third place finish at Newcastle over 5f. I was keen on him that day and that hasn’t change ever since, as he is stepping up to 6f again today.

The minimum trip was a bit too sharp as it turned out, nonetheless this imposing grey ran a fine race in a competitive race, finishing strongly to claim third.

Even though he continues to be a maiden, this is only his fourth Handicap start and the fact remains his handicap debut last year over course and distance off 2lb higher rates super form in this field.

Now the third time running after a break as well, after a pipe opener and the recent excellent performance, up to what appears to be his optimum trip off a mark he could still better – Miracle Works has a fine opportunity to get finally off the mark today.

Selection:
10pts win – Miracle Works @ 8/1 MB

Thursday Selections: January 25th, 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

2.10 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

From top draw start Archimedes in this contest over the minimum trip tomorrow. To be drawn low over this CD is a massive advantage as pointed out on this blog several times in the past; drawn in 1 is the cherry on the cake, so to speak.

Archimedes is for many reasons, not only the positive draw, and intriguing individual. For one, he is a course and distance winner – last January he won this exact race off 3lb higher than his current handicap rating. He ran to a whopping RPR of 70 that day (in the context of his official rating).

He backed this up later in the year on turf at Bath on fast ground over 5f, when winning off the same mark running to a similar RPR.

Problems started soon after. He missed plenty of assignments and ran mostly poorly. An issue with his wind was identified and hopefully rectified through a wind OP in November. He returns to the track after a near 100 day long break for his first run after the OP.

Obviously this procedure might not work as hoped, however, given the fact he won this very same race last year, is dangerously well handicapped and has a top draw, in combination one would hope he can return to some sort of last seasons form which would see Archimedes go close.

Selection:
10pts win – Archimedes @ 12/1 William Hill

…….

3.55 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

Open contest with no standout, however Zorovan, despite tumbling odds, looks still a tasty option.

The 5-year old is a course and distance winner and finished a fine 2nd in a class 4 Handicap over CD subsequently of a mark off 77. Both runs awarded him RPR’s of 81 and 85 and he followed up with a success on turf of a handicap mark off 80 some weeks later.

Racing in strong handicaps of high marks, he couldn’t quite continue to ride the wave of success and hasn’t been in the money ever since.

After a half-year long break he reappeared at Newcastle in December, probably needed the run badly when well beaten. He did a bit better the next time at Chelmsford in a deep race, tiring late.

A return to this course and distance as well as a further 3lb drop in the weights should see Zorovan in much better light, though. It’s Keith Dalgleish’s only runner on the card and a fair 3lb claimer is booked for the ride – a big run is expected here, I feel.

Selection:
10pts win – Zorovan @ 13/2 PP

King Of Rooks can thrive over 6 furlongs

3.10 York: Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2), 6f

I’m prepared to give King Of Rooks another chance prove his class. He looked special when winning at Newbury and subsequently the National Stakes at Sandown, though things didn’t go quite his way the last two times. But a step up to 6f may well suit, and so should be York’s flat sprint course. He looks overpriced in this field.

King Of Rooks @ 11/2 William Hill – 5pts Win