Tag Archives: Wednesday

Wednesday Selections: May, 1st 2019

Newmarket Rowley Mile after race

Finished April with a winner and thanks to that with a small profit. Ashazuri (6/1) finished her race really nicely and took advantage of the featherweight she carried. It could have been so much better, but both The British Lion and Chaplin Bay only managed third place.

Well, on to May now…. where the flat kicks properly into gear. The Guineas and Kentucky Derby looming large on the horizon – exciting!

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5.00 Ascot: Class 4 Handicap, 5 furlongs

Top weight Tomily drops down to class 4 as well as to a sexy mark – he’s an obvious choice in an open contest, where many could put claim on running well, but few appear truly well handicapped.

Tomily ran well enough on his seasonal reappearance in a hot race at Kempton last month. That’s a positive after his form clearly tailed off in the second half of last year.

However he was competing in much hotter grade than this today of much higher marks. He managed to run to TS ratings of 90+ on three occasions in 2018, albeit on the All-Weather. But he was also less than 3 lengths beaten in a strong class 3 sprint at Ripon in May.

So, if Tomily can regain anything near his best today he’ll be hard to beat in hands of a very capable 5lb claimer in the saddle.

Selection:
10pts win – Tomily @ 15/2 MB

……..

7.25 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 7 furlongs

Maazel is frustrating horse to follow, usually having a few issues at the start and then running consistently into trouble, so the last few times on the All-Weather as well as three weeks ago here over course and distance.

He got a few bumps along the way, made up a lot of ground after starting slowly but was squeezed badly inside the final furlong.

He’s down a mark of 55 now. That looks definitely a handy mark, given he ran to higher TS ratings in the past on turf and AW, most recently in March at Lingfield when he ran to a TS rating of 58. So if he can get a clear run in what appears not to be a particularly strong race, he should go close.

Selection:
10pts win – Maazel @ 15/2 MB

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Wednesday Selections: April, 17th 2019

Balty Boys

Craven Stakes Day. Excellent racing at HQ today, as was the case yesterday as well. Qabala was impressive the way she won the Nell Qwyn Stakes. She looks like a horse ready-made for the Rowley Mile.

But the biggest lasting impressing was created in the opening maiden that saw Maqsad and Twist’n Shake fight out a dramatic battle to the line, as well as finishing a long way before the rest. Both fillies look exciting prospects for the season ahead.

Betting wise, I’m not really interested in Newmarket today. But Beverly offers an intriguing card, if not quite the same quality. The handicaps are interesting puzzles to solve for those who are into that sort of thing.

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4.00 Beverly: Class 4 Handicap, 7.5f

This is a pretty competitive and open race but I feel my selection Jackamundo can have a big say if in it to win it. He’s a big drifter this morning which is a concern, though there are plenty of positives as well.

Jackamundo looks the type to improve as a 3-year-old after a fair juvenile campaign, culminating in victory on handicap debut. Visually it was quite an impressive performance when he showed adversity to find a way through the field and get his head in front late, but early enough to win by a quarter of a lengths.

Gelded over the winter, his seasonal comeback run at Musselburgh was fair when the market expected him to run really well, though excuses can be made for a 6th place finish in a race where things didn’t quite pan out for him.

The slightly further trip today is sure to suit, the fast ground appears ideal as well, though the draw isn’t ideal and whether his racing style suits Beverly remains to be seen. A mark off 72 is realistic and offers opportunity, on the other hand.

Selection:
10pts win – Jackamundo @ 18/1 MB

………

5.10 Beverly: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

It still pains me thinking back to the 22nd February when Gendarme as my 25/1 selection was beaten by a nose on the line. Can he make amends as an equally whopping price today?

The 4-year-old gelding looks hopeless judged by an 11-0-1 record. But as mentioned back then, it still applies very much today:

the majority of his runs on the All-Weather over the winter were quite promising, as he wasn’t too far beaten on most occasions, and those forms, to large extend have worked out well.

The most recent run at Lingfield, when attempting to follow up from his runner-up performance, albeit only finishing 7th and nearly seven lengths beaten, he was right there for a long time, setting a good pace from the front against hot opposition – for that class.

Given Gendarme he has ran to consistent RPR’s around his current mark and achieved a significantly higher career highest TS rating less than a year ago on turf, a return to this surface could bring out some improvement also. I feel there is a win just around the corner – hopefully today is the day.

Selection:
10pts win – Gendarme @ 21/1 MB

…..

6.10 Beverly: Class 5 Handicap, 8.5 furlongs

Still a maiden, though, Kylie Rules is one of the more unlucky ones. The filly has changed yards recently and goes to post first time for Ruth Carr today which is also her seasonal return.

The filly has dropped to a really handy mark if fit and ready to go today. She’s ran well fresh in the past, so that isn’t necessarily a worry. Kylie Rules also achieved a TS rating of 72 and RPR of 72 last season, suggesting a mark of 60 is well within her realms.

Her career-best came over the 8.5f trip last season at Hamilton – albeit on soft ground, though she ran perfectly fine on much fast ground as well. This looks like an ideal opportunity today to finally get off the mark.

Selection:
10pts win – Kylie Rules @ 10/1 PP

Wednesday Selections: April, 10th 2019

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2.00 Nottingham: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

Aloysius Lilius looks the sort to improve with age. He already showed plenty of promise as a juvenile over the minimum trip last year, though.

He ran to a TS rating of 73, and the majority of his forms looks rock solid, in fact can be upgraded as they worked out strongly.

A mark off 71 offers opportunity on what is only Aloysius Lilius’s third handicap run. He showed his best on fast ground last year, so both trip and ground will likely suit today in an open contest.

Selection:
10pts win – Aloysius Lilius @ 15.5/1 MB

Cheltenham Festival 2019 – Wednesday Selections

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1.30: Grade 1 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, 2m 5f

Will Champ honour his name? He’s certainly got every chance to do so. He’s top rated, 5lb ahead of his nearest rival. Has achieved the highest RPR of anyone in the field so far and comes only marginally second in TS ratings.

The one thing you can question is the merit of his forms, though: they aren’t worth a lot, despite two graded successes this season. On that basis, at given prices, he’s one to oppose.

The Irish talk is all about Battleoverdoyen. He won the Lawlor’s Of Naas in impressive style. He’ll be an amazing chaser next season, you’d reckon. In my eyes, even now, he seems like crying out for a step up in trip and his jumping isn’t really all that efficient over the smaller obstacles either.

The runner-up from Naas, Sams Profile, is an interesting contender. He didn’t quite get the best of runs that day and should have plenty of improvement left.

Nonetheless, the one I quite fancy, despite not having graded form to his name yet, is City Island. Unbeaten over hurdles, he had enough speed to win a 2 miles national Hunt Flat race last season as well as a Leopardstown Maiden Hurdle this season, dispatching smart Dallas Des Pictons easily.

That form looks a strong piece of form judged through the runner-up. Not as impressive form-wise, more so visually, was City Island’s most recent success at Naas- a good preparation for Cheltenham.

The fact he has had the speed to win over shorter than the Ballymore trip, despite clearly having a future over further, already having shown form with cut in the ground and running to a relatively fast TS rating plus the second highest RPR tells me he is still underappreciated in the market, even though he is shortening.

Selection:
10pts win – City Island @ 10/1 Coral

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2.50: Grade 3 Coral Cup Hurdle, 2m 4f

I’ve been sitting for a long time over this race, much longer than usual. Ultimately, even though shortlisted, I do not trust big weights Vision Des Flos and William Henry to be good enough to overcome their high marks in this ultra competitive renewal.

Ruby Walsh on favourite Uradel is the likeliest winner in my book. His reappearance last month at Leopardstown was eye-catching and he comes here with a nice weight. But he is a skinny price.

Not a skinny price, but also catching my eye was Tully East. A horse I’ll be forever grateful for as I backed him at big odds when he landed the Close Brothers two years ago.

That was over fences. This is over hurdles. Significantly, Tully East’s hurdle handicap mark is eight pounds lower for this race than his current chasing mark. One can make the argument that he is a better chaser than hurdler. In my book it’s marginal and a rating of 138 by the British handicapper gives him a tremendous chance in this race.

As mentioned, Tully East caught the eye on his latest run, which was a second after a 148-day break. He was well beaten in the end, but was buried in the pack for the majority of the race, travelled nicely, made a bit of stylish headway turning for home, when short of room, which eventually ended his race.

Trip and ground are a non-issue. He’s been here before, done it – I’m sure connections had this in mind all season long. He’s a much bigger price than I would have anticipated.

Selection:
10pts win – Tully East @ 22/1 MB

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3.30: Grade 1 Champion Chase, 2 miles

Altior isn’t to beat, so much is for sure. He’s the class act of the festival and baring a disaster he’ll win another Champion Chase.

It’ll be all about the places behind him. Obviously Min has the strongest claims. He’s got the form in the book this season with his latest Leopardstown success. On ratings he’s closely matched with Politologue. A mere pound separates them.

When these two met the last time, albeit at Aintree over 2m 4f, there was only a neck between them as well – Politologue got the better that day.

As I am eyeing the place market here, I struggle to make even a remotely good cases for anyone else in this field, so both Min and Politologue should have excellent chances to fill second and third.

In saying that, I feel Politologue is overpriced in the place market. Yes, it’s not all that long ago he was a leading fancy for the King George, but truth is also his form over 2 miles is quite good as well, particularly with cut in the ground.

Whether Cheltenham is his track is another matter. The jury is still out for me. Fact his, finishing a tired 4th last year in this very race may not quite be a fair measuring stick given he was hampered by a faller four out and found himself suddenly in front – way too early.

I’m sure Politologue will be conservatively ridden for a place this time. Given he’ll find perfect conditions tomorrow I feel he’s worth a bet to fill second or third behind the almighty Altior.

Selection:
10pts place – Politologue @ 7/2 MB

…….

4.50: Grade 3 Fred Winter Hurdle, 2 miles

Th French grey Coko Beach has shaped much better in his two Irish starts for Gordon Elliott than the bare form suggests. Steadily ran races on good ground is highly unlikely to bring the best out of him – he is related to to horses that all showed their best on soft.

Coko Beach will make a nice chaser over further in the future. But he jumps his hurdles nicely and an opening mark of 134 could underestimate him, given he should improve dramatically from the Leopardstown runs.

On the positive side, he already has won a Hurdle in France on soft ground, albeit over slightly further, dispatching a next time out winner easily with Arverne who, on his UK debut, was pitched right into Grade 1 company.

Selection: 
10pts win – Coko Beach @ 15/1 MB

Wednesday Selections: February, 27th 2019

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7.30 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 3f

Monsieur Fox is still a maiden, but the gelding has outran in half of his lifetime starts his SP, and therefore market expectation, quite considerably. He did so in January running to a career best 3rd place finish here at Kempton as well as a 44/1 BSP chance.

Consistency is the question: can he back up the latest performance? Monsieur Fox didn’t only outran his price tag but also the track bias that day, as the 10f trip at Kempton heavily favours the speed horses. He, though, was held up and turned widest home, finishing strongly eventually.

That form looks strong with the runner-up winning subsequently a race that has also worked out well already.

This will only be his 4th All-Weather start, he also remains on the same 55 handicap mark, with a better draw and a trip over a fairer course and distance, with champion jockey Luke Morris in the saddle, there is a good chance for a repeat performance which could be enough to see Monsieur Fox go close.

Selection:
10pts win – Monsieur Fox @ 14/1 MB

Wednesday Selections: January, 30th 2019

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7.45 Wolverhampton: Class 7 Handicap, 8.5 furlongs

As my rotten run continues I don’t have high hopes to change that today. How can you when backing a 50/1 shot?! I’ve been incredibly keen on Blue Harmony the last time she ran at Kempton, though – before finishing a 27 lengths beaten eleventh.

As a consequence the handicapper has dropped her another 5lb. down to 48 now and the filly will contest in the lowest grade for a first time. There is a plot thickening here and it could well be the case Blue Harmony is “gone”.

Nonetheless, for this time, pretty much all I liked about her chance the other day applies today also – with the added benefit of a lower grade and lower mark! So let’s pull out the arguments from the 5th of January again:

“I’m excited as heck because I feel Blue Harmony could be supremely well handicapped in this race!

The equation is a simple one: the filly has been dropped dramatically in her handicap mark, mainly on the basis of a string of poor showings which – in my view – came on the back of marks too high as a result of her maiden win and a couple of subsequent decent handicap efforts. It took a while to get the weight down.

But now, third start for a new yard after a bit of a break, she drops to a more realistic distance plus got another few pounds off thanks her most recent 7th place finish at Wolverhampton.

Looking back at that race, for the first time of a rather realistic mark, but probably a trip still too far, things didn’t go to plan early on when the inexperienced apprentice jockey removed the hood way too late, the filly bumped into a couple of horses and was lit up.

She dropped over the next furlongs back in the field, finding herself turning wider than ideal for home and when attempting to make a run, she lost her footing, stumbling, losing all momentum.

She still managed to finish 7th in quite a hot contest – the form has worked out rather well for that type of low grade race.

Now down to a mark of 53, one has to remember Blue Harmony has been running to a TS 69 rating in the past and to RPR’s over 53 on on six out of nine occasions on the All-Weather.

Even more significantly she gets the assistance of competent 5lb claimer Megan Nicholls and has the additional aid of a good draw. The price on offer is way over the top I feel given how well this filly could be handicapped.”

So, the same 5lb claiming apprentice is on board, but the handicap mark is 5lb lower and the race an easier one. I feel I rarely had a better 50/1 shot.

Selection:
10pts win – Blue Harmoney @ 50/1 MB

 

Wednesday Selections: January, 23rd 2019

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7.45 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

Still a maiden after 18 starts, but Caracas has shown a bit of life here and there, both on turf and the All-Weather. He drops in trip, a somewhat unfamiliar one, as only twice did he contest the 12f distance.

Form wise his 5th from last March over 2 miles at Chelmsford rates a pretty strong piece of form. He came agonizingly close a few months later at Nottingham when only a head beaten. Consistency, though, isn’t Caracas’s game.

Second up after a break today in a poor race, he has a highly successful 3lb claiming apprentice in the saddle – Joshua Bryan comes here for this one ride only today, which looks significant.

Of a mark of 52 Caracas looks rather well handicapped if he can put his best foot forward over this trip that on pedigree should suit.

Selection:
10pts win – Caracas @ 21/1 MB