Tag Archives: Aiden O’Brien

Eyecatchers

Flat Horses to Follow 2024

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The flat is back and quickly kicks into gear. As is customary tradition for this time of the year: here’s a selection of horses to follow throughout the 2024 flat season.

My main focus is once again on potential Group level performers – although some may turn out to develop (“only”?) into classy handicappers. In any case, I hope the following 10 horses do offer indeed significant upside based on what they have shown as juveniles.

In truth, hardly any of these are “dark horses”. I haven’t read any of the numerous “horses to follow” pieces yet, neither any of the more prominent stable tours, in order to avoid getting influenced; nonetheless, if you’re browsing Twitter you can’t escape that some names have been prominently mentioned.

Even though this list had been compiled weeks ago already, and only waited to be published with the start of the new flat season, I can hardly claim to have uncovered “original material”.

In any case, this is an exciting time of the year. All hopes still alive. That lends itself perfectly to take a cheeky look back, also.

HTF 2023 Review:

The 2023 edition did quite well in general. Not every horse turned out be a future star of our beloved sport. But some shot right to the top of the game, while others won decent enough races. If I only would have backed them all when it mattered most.

Nonetheless, the stars of the “class of 23” were clearly Continuous – an excellent winner of the St Leger, as well as Oaks heroine Soul Sister, who was also my biggest winner last year when she landed the Musidora where I backed her at 20s.

English and Irish Guineas placed Hi Royal, Coronation Stakes runner-up Remarquee and impressive Royal Ascot scorer Coppice were other notable horses achieving success in 2023.

………..

Anzac Day
3yo colt – Andrew Balding

Green on debut when he missed the kick and as a consequence was left with a mountain to climb in a race that favoured the front due to the pace..

Finished very strongly in the final furlong and hinted ability if he could learn and move up in trip, given his pedigree screams stamina.

He moved up an additional furlong ten days later at Newmarket. A fine start, he was soon toward the front of the pack and travelled really well. As he increased the tempo from over 3f out, he soon kicked clear and was not the be caught.

A superb run as he beat a good Godolphin horse in second. The speed rating of 89 confirmed the visual impression. He’ll improve as he moves up to 12 furlongs and could be a dark horse for the Derby.

Azada
3yo filly – Dermot Weld

Impressive finish on debut from the back of the field in horrible ground when she accelerated in superb style from 3f out to leave the rest of the field standing, all while overcoming early greenness.

Achieved an excellent 82 debut speed rating. Looks one with plenty of scope as a 3-year-old, though may need soft ground to be seen to best effect.

A step up to a mile will be no problem whatsoever. Beyond that remains to be seen. The Galileo mare produced a 10f Group 1 winner in Australia, though.

British Camp
3yo colt – Andrew Balding

British Camp was green on his debut. Missed the break and was early enough off the bridle entering the home straight.

Three light backhanders later and finished off nicely under alight enough ride in the closing stages to win it on the line, with seemingly much more left in the tank.

Ran five furlongs of the final mile the fastest sectionals, including the final two furlongs, dipping easily under 12s, in a pretty competitive race, beating some nice horses.

He wasn’t expected on the day. The late May foal drifted out 18/1 before the off. He did plenty wrong, didn’t enjoy the best of trips, and still won also achieving a superb debut speed rating of 84.

Trained by Andrew Balding, British Camp is very well bred and related to smart individuals in his family. He should be capable of getting 1m 4f, but a fast 10 furlongs may be ideal at this stage of his career.

Galen
3yo colt – Joseph O’Brien

Very impressive debut in a maiden where he finished only second behind City Of Try. Missed break, possibly by design, then travelled well against the inside off the pace. Nice progress but in a pocked and had to switch before he ran home strongly, chasing COT.

Wasn’t seen since July. That’s a big question mark. Things must have gone wrong. But he has a Guineas and Derby entry and looks potentially a seriously exciting prospect over 7f to a mile, if there are no further issues.

God’s Window
3yo colt – John Gosden

Showed a likable turn of foot on debut at Doncaster in soft ground despite not being advantaged by how the race developed early on, travelling without cover the first 1.5 furlongs, and coming from off the pace in a slowly run race.

Good 77 debut speed rating. Deemed good enough to contest a deep Futurity Stakes. Missed the break and was quite keen in the early part of the race. Badly positioned but impressive finish for third.

Can only improve as he moves up in trip. Out of an Oaks Trial winner, by Dubawi, he looks an intriguing Derby prospect.

Grosvenor Square
3yo colt – Aiden O’Brien

Gutsy Galway winner on debut. Looked green and clueless enough, especially around the sharp bends. Connections have introduced smart horses in this particular race in the past.

The son of Galileo doesn’t look flashy and doesn’t seem to do anything in a hurry either. He ran well for third travelling quite wide, although he also appeared one paced in the Beresford.

He was seen to much better effect on his final run last year, moving up to 9 furlongs in the Eyrefield Stakes at Leopardstown where he kicked nicely from the front to win with ease.

He’s certainly going to be better the further he goes, as his pedigree suggests, as a son of Galileo and a half-brother to Santiago. Not the classiest in the stable for now, but solid speed ratings over sharp enough trips for this colt as a juvenile, that suggests there is plenty of upside.

Henry Longfellow
3yo colt – Aiden O’Brien

This son of Dubawi and Minding looks the real deal. Visually and on the clock he’s been nothing short of impressive in his three career runs as a juvenile.

The way he quickened on debut and next time in the Futurity Stakes from the front on both occasions was highly promising. He subsequently made top-class 2-year-old Bucanero Fuerte look like a lowly rated claimer in the National Stakes.

Most likely some of that had to do with the fact BF didn’t quite get home over the trip in a fast race. Nonetheless, Henry Longfellow, once again confirmed the impressions from his first two runs.

A seemingly uncomplicated individual, he was able to quicken from the front as well as chase a pace and pass rivals. He looks to possess plenty of scope as well.

The visual impressions are backed up by speed ratings. 85 on debut – that’s often the sign of a potentially classy individual. 101 in the Futurity. Confirmed by a 100 speed rating in the National Stakes.

He has the 2000 Guineas written all over his profile. I’m not an ante-post backer but would be seriously temped by the 6-7/1 available right now. Not totally impossible that he can stretch out to the Derby trip, either, although 10 furlongs may be the limit.

Inisherin
3yo colt – Kevin Ryan

Only half a lengths beaten on debut when market expected nothing (50/1). Travelled the best to 2f out and only beaten by a vastly more experienced horse. Fine 76 speed rating for a debut.

Impressive victory on seasonal return at Newcastle. Benefited from prime position in a really slowly run race but was impressive the way he finished easily sprinting clear under hands and heels with two subsequent sub-11s furlongs.

Looks sure to improve for experience and a step up in trip looks ideal on pedigree. Out of smart Ajman Princess who was Lanshire Oaks 3rd and winner of the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet.

A stiff mile and a strong pace could also work, especially in the early part of the season, possibly. Maybe not a prime contender for a 2000 Guineas, but could have an outside chance.

One Look
3yo filly – Paul Twomey

Overcame a stiff task on debut to take on vastly more experienced rivals in the highly competitive Goffs Million at the Curragh. She obliterated her rivals thanks to superb acceleration from 3f out.

She benefitted from a solid pace and got the gaps when needed that day but the way she put the race to bed was nothing short of astonishing. That’s backed by a sensational 92 debut speed rating.

Not sure she’ll get much further than a mile given the speed she showed and the dam doing her best work over a mile, too. She may need soft ground as well, as it appears she hits the ground quite hard.

Uluru
3yo filly – Joseph O’Brien

Impressive debut at Gowran Park from a wide draw where she didn’t get too well away at the start. Nonetheless, she ran away with it in the end and clocked an excellent 81 speed rating.

Changed hands afterwards and was desperately unlucky for new owners Team Valor in her final start last season. It wasn’t a good pace, she was stuck in the pack and just couldn’t get out. Did well to finish 4th.

She looks capable of improving into a stakes filly. The dam won over 12 furlongs, so a step up in trip will surely help her to improve. She also has an early season entry at Naas in March.

Equine Photography

Photos: Irish Flat Season Opener 2024

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Photo gallery of the 2024 start to the Irish flat season at the Curragh on St. Patrick’s Day bank holiday.

18th March 2024, Curragh Racecourse, Co, Kildare, Ireland

© Florian Christoph, 2024

Betting

Sunday Selections: 14th May 2023

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Sergeant Tibbs  beaten on the line. He ran a huge race but got just caught. Could have done with this one. Eponina ran no race at all. She was in trouble from 4f out. Something looked amiss.

That’s 11 losing bets on the bounce. Struggling a bit lately. Memories of the good start to the month have faded. Most selections have ran poorly as well.

Although, bare one, I liked all those selections. Can’t be too critical there. It’s just one of those times again, I guess.

……

3.30 Longchamp: G1 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches, 1m

Blue Rose Cen brings top-class form to the party and looked brilliant when she quickened nicely from near the front in the Prix de la Grotte, but I think the visual impression didn’t quite match the merit of the performance, given it was on deep ground and a slowly run race.

Aiden O’Brien saddles Never Ending Story and ever since she won the 1000 Guineas trial at Leopardstown I felt she is a high-class filly, a Group 1 winner in the making.

That day she was gutsy, stayed on strongly and proved that she has progressed after a somewhat underwhelming juvenile campaign.

She looked stronger, and ran a good 90 speed rating, as the form has ben given a significant boost in the meantime by the second and third.

I imagine she’s even better on decent ground. On the other hand, she clearly goes well on heavy ground, which will be key at Longchamp. She should enjoy stepping up to a mile once again, too.

She seems somewhat underappreciated in the betting. I see her a whole lot closer the favourite than current prices have it.

Never Ending Story @ 7/2

…….

5.45 Hamilton: Class 3 Handicap, 5f

This handicap brings a wide range of horses together will all sorts of abilities. It is a class 3 in name only, though. The higher rated individuals may have the upper hand on paper, but neither looks well-handicapped.

No question, though, having been left untouched by the handicapper, Huddle Up must even as he moves up in class, and doing so significantly.

He ran a huge race on his comeback run after 11 months off the track at Thirsk about three weeks ago off a mark of 74, achieving a respectable 72 speed rating, with the performance also warranting an upgrade.

Huddle Up crossed over to the stands’ side soon after the start from his low draw. He tracked a good pace, made a strong move from over 2f out, and found himself in a head-to-head battle with the leader from 2f out all the way to the line. Eventually he was only beaten in the final 50 yards by a horse from off the pace.

It was his first opportunity to race in the UK with significant cut in the ground since he moved over last spring. That seems key to his chances. He ran to a 77 speed rating as a juvenile in heavy ground, and this most recent run suggests he may not be far off his very best.

The drop to 5f won’t be an issue, he has won over the minimum trip, and the stiff finish on softish ground will suit. There seems enough rain in the forecast to expect the ground not to dry out much beyond the current good to soft.

10pts win – Huddle Up @ 6/1

Eyecatchers

Flat Horses To Follow 2023 – Group Class

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Final part of a series that tries to pick out intriguing horses to follow for the new 2023 flat season.

The main focus for this third piece is going to be on potential Group performers that offer significant upside based on what they have shown as juveniles.

Bertinelli
3-yo colt / Aiden O’Brien / Justify – Together Forever

Finished a long way clear of the main bulk of the field for a good second place on debut, while he didn’t enjoy quite a clear run. Fine 74 speed rating confirmed the promise.

No doubt, he clearly needs further than a mile, as was also evident on his second and final juvenile start when he battled hard to land a Dundalk maiden, despite the jockey reporting afterwards that the colt got struck into behind.

Was also reportedly weak and had a lot of growing to do last year, which puts this two performances into even better perspective. Apparently he had been working nicely since being back in training before hitting a slight setback suffering from a stone bruise.

He’s one who may need time anyways, and to follow beyond the spring races.

Coppice
3-yo filly / J&T Gosden / Kingman – Helleborine

Was slow out of the gate on debut but quickly recovered, settling in midfield. Travelled strongly, and it was impressive to see her accelerating twice in the closing stages.

She obviously has a lot of speed and a potent turn of foot but also hit the line full of running, suggesting a mile isn’t out of question, which would be in line with her pedigree.

She is, however, a full-sister to classy sprinter Calyx; the jury is out whether she stays a mile run at a strong pace, given this debut performance ended in a sprint finish.

Nonetheless, she ran to a solid 72 speed rating on debut. The form was boosted by the runner-up who was an easy winner next time out.

There is clearly more to come, she has a Guineas entry, and is one I wouldn’t lose faith in too quickly if early signs are that she doesn’t turn out to be a filly for the Newmarket Classic.

Continuous
3- yo Colt / Aiden O’Brien

Intriguing pedigree: by Japanese sire Heart’s Cry – who was a winner of the Sheema Classic in 2006 – out of Fluff, which was down to pure chance because the mare was supposed to be covered by Deep Impact, who sadly passed away right before she arrived in Japan.

Continues is the only son of Heart’s Cry actively racing in the UK and Ireland (possibly Europe) right now. His sire is well known for stamina in Japan, having sired Japan Cup winners and other multiple international top-class horses over middle-distance top-class .

Won well at the Curragh over 7 furlongs when he made all on debut, although was pestered by a stable mate. Kicked on over 2 furlongs out and won well in the end. Ran to an 80 speed rating.

Went on to win a Group 3 at Saint-Cloud over a mile. Gutsy performance in a slowly run race that didn’t suit him. Showed lovely attitude in those first two career runs.

A mile should be the absolute minimum but I expect Continuous to really come alive once he steps up in trip. Soft ground won’t bother him, either. He looks a good Derby prospect at this time, possibly even one for the St. Leger.

Couplet
3-yo filly / Harry Eustace / Zoustar – Arabda

Impressive Haydock maiden winner on debut, clocking a 78 speed rating even as things didn’t go smoothly on the day. She showed adversity and may prefer better ground as well.

Pedigree suggests a mile is going to be a stretch but she goes to the Fred Darling so we’ll find out sooner rather than later. The way she finished on debut, hitting the line strongly as the only filly finninsh over 100% suggests she could enjoy the step up to 7 furlongs, though.

The sire was a Grade 1 winner over 7 furlongs and the dam was able to stretch out to a mile, though, both did their best work on better ground.

Classic
3-yo colt / Richard Hannon / Dubawi – Date With Destiny

Possibly had excuses when last seen in October in a good Conditions race as he was keen and held up on his first try over a mile.

Better judged on three efforts prior. Strong fourth on debut in a hot maiden race at Newbury, ran to 80 speed rating there. Quite green when a neck beaten runner-up next time.

Created a huge impression when winning a Novice Stakes at Newmarket over 7furlongs in soft conditions in his third career run. He was still quite keen throughout, yet it was impressive how he kicked easily from the front and finishing strongly up the stiff finish.

His pedigree suggests a mile won’t be a problem, even 10 furlongs seem realistic. Obviously he has to settle better. Hopefully with age and experience he can relax better. No doubt there is a serious engine under the hood.

Desert Order
3-yo colt/ Charlie Appleby / Dubawi –
Duchess Of Berry

Third and second places in first two starts behind smart winners who went on to subsequent Group 1 placings. He won his next two runs over 7 furlongs before the end of the season.

He won a competitive maiden contest at York before showing tremendous attitude to win on handicap debut when he struggled for a clear passage until late off a mark of 92, suggesting there is much more to come.

Uncomplicated sort, he should really enjoy a step up in trip, which can bring out more improvement. A mile won’t be an issue, an there is enough stamina in his pedigree to believe 10 furlongs won’t pose too much trouble, either.

Highly likely to improve as a 3-year-old and looks a Group winner in the making.

Enfjaar
3-yo colt / Roger Varian / Lope De Vega – Tesoro

You just had to love his debut performance, visually, and also on the clock a good 75 Speed Rating, on ground possibly not what he really wants.

Especially as he didn’t appear totally happy at the track in a hot field. he appeared flat footed halfway through the race but ran on in superb style to land a race that looks pretty strong form.

He looks sure to appreciate a step up to a mile; beyond that is a question mark. The dam was a sprinter, although is by Galileo. The Full-sister won over 8.5 furlongs but never tried beyond that.

He hasn’t got any fancy entries at this stage. So question marks on how he has wintered. Also racing in a hood on a debut is something to note. Nonetheless, he looks ready to step into pattern class this season, if all is well.

Hi Royal
3-yo colt / Kevin Ryan / Kodiac – Majestic Roi

Made a hugely impressive debut in a hot York maiden when third behind Desert Order. Showed tremendous change of gear from the back of the field in the last three furlongs.

Mad no mistake when much more prominently ridden at Ayr next time, as he stepped up to a mile without any issue to win cosily.

He’s a big colt, reportedly has wintered well and is expected to come into his own once he steps up to ten furlongs. However, he’s likely to go for a Guineas trial first.

He could be somewhat of a “dark horse” for the Guineas perhaps, given the solid speed he showed in his first two career starts over 7f and a mile. Clearly he’s seriously talented, which is no surprise given his sublime pedigree.

Mostabshir
3-yo colt / J&T Gosden / Dark Angel – Handassa

Quickened nicely on debut from a prominent racing position after overcoming a wide draw easily. Was going away nicely, although speed rating on the lower end for what I’d like to see for top-class prospects.

You can only beat what’s put in front of you and he’s excepted to improve as a 3-year-old; the dam’s offspring often improves with age and experience.

He’s got a Guineas entry. Not sure whether his stamina lasts beyond a mile. A strongly run mile may be the ideal scenario.

Slipofthepen
3-yo colt / J&T Gosden / Night Of Thunder – Free Verse

An obvious one: made huge impression on Kempton Park debut last November when he overcame greenness to produce a fine change of gear and win in visually arresting style. Good 76 speed rating for this debut performance too.

By 2000 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder, he clearly has a lot of speed but the way he finished over so strongly over a mile as a juvenile gives ample hope that he can extend to 10 furlongs.

Derby hopes are misplaced, most likely. He starts of at Kempton on 10/03 and has Guineas and Dante Stakes entries as well. It’ll be hugely exciting to follow his journey.

Soul Sister
3-yo filly / J&T Gosden / Frankel – Dream Peace

Showed superb attitude and staying qualities on her debut at Doncaster in deep ground as she stayed on strongly to get up in the dying strides in a head-to-head battle.

She possesses a lot of stamina and will have no issues stepping to 10 furlongs, and likely beyond. Her full-siblings have been pretty smart in their own right, often done their best work with cut in the ground.

Remarquee
3-yo filly / Ralph Beckett / Kingman – Regardez

Looked quite raw and clueless on her first day at school in September. Even more so impressive how she ran home strongly in the final furlong . It was also a good debut performance on speed ratings (79).

Should easily get further and is expected to improve once she steps up to a mile and beyond. The dam won over 1m 2f and stayed a bit further too.

As a daughter of Kingman you would hope this combination makes for a fine middle-distance prospect. She may go to some of the trials and we’ll then find out more about her trajectory.

Betting

Breeders’s Cup Turf 2022 Preview

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8.40 Keeneland (USA): Grade 1; 1m 4f

This renewal of the Breeders’ Cup Turf doesn’t appear to have the same quality as in previous years. As a consequence it’s wide open. A full field, a tight track and likely fast ground will make for an exciting race, though.

Two horses trained by Charlie Appleby head the betting market. Nations Pride is currently favoured – one can see why. The 3-year-old colt enjoyed a highly successful season, winning four races, and lately went back-to-back in Grade 1 company in the US.

Nations Pride only got beaten this year in the Epsom Derby and in the Belmont Derby when an unlucky runner-up . At the same time he clearly proved versatility, a preference for fast ground and the ability to sit handy and quicken nicely when asked to change gear.

Those are all characteristics that do enhance his chances. He’s a fair favourite in my view. But also beatable. Nations Pride is no superstar.

Otherwise he wouldn’t have been running in the US so often this season. This US form isn’t always easy to quantify, but almost never on par with European top-level competition.

Nations Pride’s European form is solid but hard to be too excited about. Also: in six starts outside the US his career-best speed rating is a modest 89 figure, dating back to his sole run at Meydan.

A #7 gate isn’t ideal here. He may have to spend quite a bit of energy if the aim is a prominent racing position. Otherwise he may be too far back in the field. He’s not always a sharp starter, either. It’s a tricky situation for William Buick in the saddle. At 11/4 I give Nations pride a miss.

Stable mate Rebel’s Romance comes here in red hot form. He landed the two most important Group 1 races in Germany lately, doing so in fine style, as he got the better of German Derby winner Samarko along the way – personally I really rate the German colt.

Unbeaten in his last four starts, he stays the trip and is fine on fast ground. However, his career-best on the rating front dates back to last year, at Meydan; how the recent soft ground form from Germany truly translates to Keeneland is a bit of a question mark. I have some doubts.

A year ago Mishriff would likely have been a red hot favourite in this race. This time he’s a 6/1 shot. Unlucky in the Coral Eclipse at the start of his season, he never looked the same horse again.

Drawn in #11, blinkers on for the first time in his career; this me strike as a somewhat desperate move. I struggle to find him attractive in these circumstances.

Broome has a good draw, in comparison. The six-year-old continues to run well at the highest level. He was an impressive winner of the Hardwick Stakes at Royal Ascot, and wasn’t disgraced in the Arc when last seen on unsuitable ground.

He’ll be a solid place chance if he doesn’t miss the break, which he’s now done a couple of times.

It’s difficult for me to properly assess the form of the home squad. The mare War Like Goddess looked pretty good – although, not brilliant – when landing the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic four weeks ago. She’s likely to be up with the pace from the #2 gate. Hence must rate a competitive chance.

Nonetheless, for betting purposes I’ll stick with the horses I know well enough to make a proper assessment.

With that in mind, the one that I was thinking about all week for this race was the other Aiden O’Brien runner, Stone Age. In truth: generally I am not a massive fan of him, opposed him at every opportunity this year.

However, I have come to the conclusion that he’s going to be a huge runner against this opposition in these circumstances, and certainly appears to be significantly overpriced.

Stone Age has a lovely draw to attack the race from. He’s Ryan Moore’s choice, who knows him well. The 3-year-old colt likes to race bang up with the pace, and can also make it all, as often seen this season. From the #3 gate he’ll be right there towards the front of the race.

I’m pretty sure if you sit more than four lengths off the pace with three furlongs to go your chances are doomed in this race. Stone Age will be right in the mix. He’s not the best horse in the race. But he may well be the one most favoured by circumstances.

He’s been to the US twice this year. On both occasions he ran with plenty of credit, as he had to overcome wide draws. Both Saratoga- and Belmont Derby runs can be upgraded. So can be his last two performances at the highest level against top-class opposition in the Irish- and British Champions Stakes.

He led the field in those races, possibly did too much too soon, but wasn’t all that far beaten in the end, in either instance. I believe he will enjoy the better ground at Keeneland – in combination with the track and his draw, it’s a real positive. And this is a much easier race than the rivals he countered the last two times.

Let’s not forget Stone Age was once a highly fancied Derby shot. Obviously, he’s not that good. Certainly I never thought he was. His speed ratings are consistently not good enough to be considered a proper Group 1 horse in Europe, too.

Yet, here I am: strongly fancying Stone Age. He’s got a proper chance for Group 1 glory in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. This race will suit him more than most in the field. He has the stamina, the finishing kick, the draw and won’t mind the ground.

10pts win – Stone Age @ 9/1

Betting

Dewhurst Stakes Preview

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3.00 Newmarket: Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes, 7f

Nostalgia is in the air with Sir Michael Stoute’s exciting colt Nostrum heading the betting market in a bid to land a first Juvenile Group 1 victory for the trainer in nearly two decades.

The son of Kingman has been exciting in his two career runs to date, especially when he followed up on a fine debut with his first Group success in excellent style over course and distance a fortnight ago.

He’s one of the more inexperienced colts in the field, though, and hasn’t set the world alight on speed ratings in those two runs. He’s short enough a price for me to happily take him on.

Much more experienced is the second colt running in the famous Juddmonte colours today: Chaldean. He’s got four runs and a hat-trick of wins to his name, including a visually impressive victory in the Champagne Stakes last month at Doncaster.

A late May colt by Frankel, he is somewhat surprisingly precocious, and is sure to improve again. A career best topspeed rating of 88 is slightly off-putting, given he had ample opportunity to run fast.

Naval Power is Godolphin’s sole chance today. Unbeaten in four starts, he steps up significantly in class, after two recent Listed victories. I can’t help but feel he may be outclassed over this trip against top-class opposition. His best topspeed of 81 is nowhere near good enough – normally; certainly not be fancied to win a Dewhurst.

Aiden O’Brien has won five of the last ten renewals of the Dewhurst. Therefore it’s a little odd when his sole entry Aesop’s Fables appears to be rather ignored in the betting.

Perhaps recency bias is at play here, given the son of No Nay Never disappointed as an odds-on shot in the National Stakes at the Curragh four weeks ago. There is plenty of reason to forgive him that performance, though.

Heavy ground was unlikely to have suited and the run may came too soon after his impressive victory in the Group 2 Futurity Stakes. That day in August Aesop’s Fables was ultra-impressive how he stormed home in the final furlong at the Curragh.

He ran to topspeed 97 and beat two solid stable mates easily. With better ground and more experience he looks open to significant improvement. of At given prices it seems a no brainer to back him, in my view.

From the three outsiders in the field, Royal Scotsman makes some appeal. He won the Coventry Stakes this summer, has experience on his side and could be a big runner if he is back to that sort of form. It’s not impossible that he can stretch out over the additional furlong as his dam won over 7 furlongs. The recent dip in form is worrying, though.

Hence, I’ll stick with Aesop’s Fables. Others may have sexier profiles, but his trainers record speaks for itself. I am prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt after the most recent disappointment – if solely judged on his first two career run, he looks a huge price to back.

10pts win – Aesop’s Fables @ 7/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 11th September 2022

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3.55 Doncaster: Group 1 St. Leger, 1m6½f

New London is the right favourite. I’ve followed his season with joy, given he was one of my 5 To Follow for the season as well. He’s gone from strengths to strengths and will have a good chance to win this Classic.

This isn’t a vintage renewal and New London has got the strongest form in the book, plus has beaten some of todays rivals already – therefore it’s easy to see why he is clear at the top of the betting.

It’s hard to argue that his Gordon Stakes victory is a key piece of form that makes him the one to beat today.

Yet, I have some reservations over the combination of trip and ground. New London has got a fair chance to stay, though stamina isn’t a certainty over the Leger trip.

More so, his best performances came on fast ground. While It won’t be bottomless today, there is going to be significant give in ground, nonetheless. The price suggests there are zero worries about either parameter. I have concerns and with that in mind have to oppose him at this short price.

My clear number two on the shortlist is Hoo Ya Mal. A surprise runner-up in the Derby, he was subsequently third behind New London in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood.

On the surface he was fair and square beaten that day. Nonetheless, in my view he is much more closly matched with the favourite than the final result of that race and the price difference in the betting today suggest.

In the Gordon Stakes Hoo Ya Mal seriously caught my eye, in fact. He improved in fine style from five furlongs out; he made rapid progress in the home straight and hit the front two furlongs from home. Ultimately, he paid the price in the closing stages for this huge but inefficient effort.

Plenty has been made of Hoo Ya Mal’s subsequent and most recent victory in the March Stakes. It was a workmanlike performance, rather than a fleshy effort against inferior rivals workmanlike style. But he showed enough to enhance his reputation in my book: he produced a solid change of gear and proved his stamina.

It was a lovely Leger prep, I feel.. Everything points to a big run today. The trip will suit. The ground is unlikely to pose an issue. Different ground conditions and the additional distance could easily see Hoo Ya Mal turn the table with New London.

He’s also closely matched on topspeed with the Godolphin horse: 107 for Hoo Ya Mal’s Derby run; 108 for new London’s victory at Goodwood.

I struggle to make a serious case for other horses in the race. The “hype horse” Haskoy has to prove her class significantly up in class. Eldar Eldarov could improve back over this sort of trip. But I don’t rate him a better chance than Hoo Ya Mal.

Emily Dickinson looks a huge price, and has a solid each-way chance I feel. She stays the trip, has the pedigree and clearly talent; with ease in the ground she may find a bit of improvement, and that would make her dangerous.

10pts win – Hoo Ya Mal @ 8.6

……..

1.15 Curragh: Premier Handicap, 6f

Top-weight Power Under must carry a huge weight in this race. The jury is out whether he’s truly as good as his current 110 Official Rating. However, with soft ground sure to suit, I believe in these type of conditions there’s every chance he is that good, and perhaps a few pound better, in fact.

It has to be, if he should go close today. In saying that, if that turns out to be a correct assessment he’ll be a huge runner in this Premier Handicap.

The 4-year-old caught my eye when last seen over this course and distance. He finished third that day but fared best of those up with the pace. The form looks strong, with the winner holding his own in Group races subsequently, and the runner-up winning a Handicap off a big weight.

One can discount his penultimate run in Group 2 class when he welt, but he was strong in the finish landing a Cork Listed sprint. he seems to do well off breaks, so not having run since June isn’t a concern.

Power Under Me has yet to run to a noteworthy topspeed rating. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt though. Today he’s got a super chance: a group horse in a Handicap….

10pts win – Power Under Me @ 10/1

……..

2.25 Curragh: Group 1 Flying Five, 5f

As intriguing as this contest is, especially with Highfield Princess and her wonderful success story this season, the market overestimates her chances today, I feel.

She may well struggle after all her recent exertions on the deep ground likely encountered up the Curragh straight. She handles the going, no doubt, but I firmly believe the rain does suit A Case Of You much more.

Especially over the minimum trip, as A Case Of You holds the strongest piece of form in these conditions – his Longchamp victory from last October in heavy going, awarded a 114 topspeed rating, gives him an outstanding chance if he can be in the same form today.

He was an excellent runner-up in the Flying Five 12 months ago, before landing the Prix de l’Abbaye in dramatic fashion. He proved that wasn’t a fluke when winning the Al Quoz sprint at Meydan earlier this year.

Since then two lesser performances raise a few question marks. But with conditions sure to suit today, a fresh A Case Of You should be hard to beat.

10pts win – A Case Of You @ 8.4

Betting

Preview: Irish Champions Day 2022

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Irish Champions Weekend is here. Always a superb two days of top-class racing. Especially Saturday at Lepordstown on a sunny Saturday is probably one of my favourite days for going racing.

I won’t go myself today, unfortunately. But certainly can’t wait to watch the action later on from the comfort of the living room. The sun is shining here where I live, not all that far from Leopardstown. I envy all those lucky folks who can make their way to the track this afternoon.

As for the racing: naturally my eyes are drawn to the Champion Stakes. It looks a fine renewal on paper. Soft ground isn’t ideal, nonetheless the right horse are here to compete. From a betting perspective I also am keen on the subsequent Solonaway Stakes, precisely because the going is soft.

…….

3.45: Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes, 1 mile 2f

French superstar Vadeni is favourite to follow in the footsteps of Almanzor, who won the 2016 edition of the Irish Champion Stakes for Jean-Claude Rouget and Christophe Soumillon.

The 3-year-old colt enjoyed a sensational season to date: runaway winner in the French Derby, and subsequently a dramatic victory in the Eclipse at Sandown.

He enjoyed a break in the meantime and is now back to go and win the long-term target connections set out for the season.

Vadeni’s brilliant ability to change gear in an instant, tactical versatility, ability to handle soft ground and weight allowance he receives from his elders makes him fair favourite in the betting market and also in my book.

Yet, I do wonder whether the soft going may take the sting out of his turn of foot. Yes, he won the French Derby in similar conditions, but he meets much better opposition today and my feeling is he’s a seriously better horse on decent ground.

Also he meets some of the older rivals on worse weight terms than at Sandown. That may not be an issue, as Vadeni should have improved physically too – it’s somewhat nit-picking; you have to be, though. In such a competitive field, when the favourite is such a short price.

This years 2000 Guineas runner-up Luxembourg endured troubled campaign. He missed the Derby and only returned to the track about four weeks ago in a Group 3 at the Curragh. He got the job done, without sparkling, but is expected to come on for the run a lot.

You certainly can bet on seeing a better version of Luxembourg today than in August. Whether it’s going to be enough to win an Irish Champion Stakes is a different matter.

The trip will suit, the ground isn’t ideal but he handles it. Yet, he’s far from outstanding on topspeed, with his career best going back twelve month – 102 in the Beresford Stakes. He’s got a bit to find with most of his rivals today. He could have the ability to do so, mind.

Stable mates Stone Age and Broome are intriguing runners. The feeling is Stone Age has more to offer than what he has shown since landing the Derby Trial over this course and distance back in May.

Broome won at Royal Ascot this summer, was then unlucky when last seen at Saratoga. An easy lead for him would be a dangerous scenario.

Don’t underestimate Alenquer. He was a dramatic winner of what was perhaps the race of the season, the Tattersalls Gold Cup, back in May at the Curragh. He wasn’t disgraced at Sandown in the Eclipse the next time despite finishing last, and comes here fresh.

Grand Prix de Paris winner Onesto provides a second chance for French connections. The drop in trip may not be ideal, but on ground soft it may not be a big deal. He probably can be marked up for his French Derby 6th place finish and seems to improve at the right time of the year.

Underestimate Mishriff at your peril. Now a 5-year-old, he may not be quite as good as he was last season, but he still runs to a seriously high standard. He was arguably the most unfortunate runner-up in the Eclipse back in June. It’s fair to say if the gap doesn’t close for him when it did then, he probably beats Vadeni on the day.

There are valid excuses for his poor subsequent performance in the King George. He’s better judged on his fine runner-up effort behind superstar colt Baaeed in the Juddmonte International Stakes. Mishriff didn’t stand a chance with Baaeed, but who would?

Yet, this second place finish is still the best performance this season by any runner in this Irish Champions Stakes field on ratings: it was worthy of a 111 topspeed rating and 124 Racingpost Rating – both the highest achieved this season.

Soft ground isn’t quite ideal, though. Mishriff’s best performances all come on decent ground. Nonetheless, he handles it. The drop to 10 furlongs is sure to suit.

Selection:

The ground should be the leveler, I feel. There are plenty of reasons to like Vadeni, yet he’s a short enough price in a race with solid alternatives. Fellow French raider Onesto makes plenty of appeal on prices.

But in summary I must give Mishriff the nod. He’s a superb price, given he’s probably the best horse in the race. He showed signs of brilliance and signs of the opposite this season. Let’s hope he can run one more time to his best. His best will be good enough to win.

10pts win – Mishriff @ 5.3

………

4.20: Group 2 Solonaway Stakes, 1 mile

Many intriguing contenders here, without a real standout chance in my view. Even though, I feel Boundless Ocean could be too good in this field if he can show his best on the soft ground.

British raider Jadoomi relishes ease in the ground and improved nicely this season, having won two on the bounce, including the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood when last seen. His best topspeed of 88 doesn’t scream short-price favourite, though.

After 367 days off the track the filly Just Beautiful is back. She was highly progressive as a 3-year-old, won five of her seven career runs and could easily improve to a level good enough to land this race. The question marks of race fitness and ground suitability are off-putting, nonetheless, especially at the current odds.

One who is certain to be seen to his best in these conditions is Raadobarg. I was waiting for him to get another chance in a race with plenty of cut in the ground. He ran better this year than bare form may suggest.

He won two on the bounce at the beginning of the season, was then desperately unlucky in a Listed contest at Longchamp, before finishing well from off the pace in the Celebration Stake at the Curragh when not advantaged by his racing position. He ran a better race than the 5¼ lengths margin behind Boundless Ocean in the Desmond Stakes suggested.

Raadobarg has to improve on ratings to seriously feature. His best 92 topspeed is solid in this field, but no more. However, with the right ground conditions, possibly a positive right from the #1 draw, he could find that bit of extra. If he does he’s quite a bit overpriced.

10pts win – Raadobarg @ 6.8

Betting

German Oaks 2022 Preview

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There’s every chance a filly is the best horse in Germany’s classic generation this year. And that says something, given Derby hero Sammarco looks a special colt.

Nonetheless, it was the filly Wagnis who took on the colts in the Derby, who seriously caught my eye that day at Hamburg. With Holly Doyle in the saddle she was fancied in the betting but ultimately encountered the most horrible run from the widest draw in stall 20.

She had to race in rear of the field, which was no advantage at all, and had way too much to do turning for home. Just before the home straight entering the final bend Wagnis stumbled badly and nearly threw Holly Doyle off. The pair recovered, made rapid progress toward inside just to find no room to manouver over 1 furlong out.

Given the circumstances Wagnis confirmed the incredible promise she showed weeks earlier in the Group 3 Diane Trial at Hoppegarten. Then she produced a serious turn of foot to win in style, leaving some solid opposition behind.

It was this dazzling performance so that made connections believe she is good enough to take on the boys in the Derby.

Wagnis is clearly a temperamental filly at the same time. Not an easy ride. She can mess up at the start. She can pull hard. She can find trouble.

That’s a real concern today, where we have with Nachtrose a highly talented and uncomplicated filly, who can go from the front and will stay all day and night.

Nachtrose was a fine winner of the Oaks d’Italia. That was only her third lifetime start, after getting off the mark in a maiden at Munich in April.

She is progressing rapidly and has formally the strongest winning form in this field, given the Italian Oaks are a Group 2. There’s every chance she can improve again. And if she does she may be hard to catch.

In addition Nachtrose has been handed a huge advantage with stall #3. She will get the run she wants, most likely prominent, tracking the pace, if not even attempting to make all.

I don’t rate Toy, Aiden O’Brien’s runner. She improved quite dramatically when a good runner-up in the Irish Derby. But it was a decimated field that day and she doesn’t possess the class some others in this field do.

Well Disposed was a fine winner of the Group 3 Mehl Mulhens-Trophy on the Derby card at Hamburg when last seen. She could improve again but was well beaten by Wagnis in the Diane Trial.

From the bigger prices I give Toscana Belle a solid each-way chance. She changed yards recently, after running on quite well n the Diane Trial. The additional furlong will suit today.

But it’s Wagnis I must go with. She is too big a price. She will need some luck, given most likely she will come from off the pace. I imagine there’ll be a good pace, which will suit, though. It’s a smaller field than at Hamburg, which is a positive too. I have no doubt she is the most talented filly in the race. Here’s hoping she can prove it today.

There is a livestream for Düsseldorf here.

10pts win – Wagnis @ 13/2

Betting

Saturday Selections: 16th July 2022

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2.56 Newbury: Group 3 Hackwood Stakes, 6f

Highly competitive affair. Pace will decide the outcome. My conclusion is the race will likely develop towards the lower drawn horses and that means some of the better fancied runners drawn high would need career-best performances to win.

The obvious choice, drawn in #2 is Rohaan, after his tremendous Royal Ascot performance. He has the form, the topspeed and the draw. He may be able to benefit from trailing a fast pace to be unleashed late with a turn of foot. Not sure whether the scenario today will really suit him, though at this track. Those in front may not stop so quickly. He looks a fair price but nothing better.

Chil Chil is really intriguing. Has top form on the book and ran to topspeed 103 two times in a row when last seen in even hotter class. If close to that form after a long break she’s the one to beat, but it’s exactly the long break that put me off.

Happy Romance is in fine form. She’s been running well all year long. Only 2 lengths beaten in the Jubilee Stakes, she couldn’t follow up at Newmarket, but had the worst draw to overcome that day. #10 today isn’t ideal either; no juice left in the price.

I can’t quite trust Minzaal after two solid but not exciting showings this year, especially with his best form coming on slower ground. Man Of Promise needs to step up significantly to feature. Not impossible but do I want to back a 5-year-old sprinter in the hope he suddenly finds 5-10lb on speed ratings? No.

The one I like against the grain is Saint Lawrence. He caught my eye earlier this year on his seasonal return at Newmarket over the minimum trip after a wind operation during his lay-off.

He finished really nicely that day in a race that looks pretty solid form, even though 5 furlongs is clearly way too hot for him. He stayed over this trip the next two times, neither disgraced at Chantilly and certainly not in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot.

It was seriously impressive how Saint Lawrence stuck to the task in the final furlong, posting the second fastest final furlong split, even though he looked going backwards from over two furlongs out, given things happened simply too quickly for him.

Fast ground is what he wants and no doubt he’s in top form. Moving up to 6 furlongs is only a positive. I reckon he’s actually best over 7 furlongs, but given his #4 draw, the pace scenario here and good Newbury record I am happy to back him at a big price to outrun the odds.

10pts win – Saint Lawrence @ 17/1

……..

3.10 Curragh: Group 2 Sapphire Stakes, 5f

The top two in the market should fight this out. Mooneista and Equilateral are the clear stand out horses in the field in my view, even though official ratings would make you believe Castle Star and Cadamosto have equal or better chances to feature.

Castle Star certainly has every right to go close after a strong runner-up performance behind Perfect Power at Royal Ascot. But 5 furlongs could be plenty sharp enough, especially on fast ground after a long break, and after seven career starts his highest topspeed ratings stands at 99. Nothing too exciting.

Cadamosto was 4th in the Commonwealth Cup, had no chance in the July Cup and has an inflated Official Rating in my view. His best topspeed is 88. He could take a step forward, of course. It has to be giant one to land a blow here against the well fancied older sprinters.

Mooneista is a class act. Highly consistent, ran multiple times really well this season already, without getting her head in front. This is easier than at Royal Ascot but her poor strike rate doesn’t make me want to back her at a tight price.

As many others I was fuming on front of the telly when Equilateral got the most horrible run at Sandown a fortnight ago. He’s obviously in excellent form, having ran really well in the King’s Stand Stakes on his seasonal reappearance.

He’s the one to beat today. Ground, track and trip will probably suit. He’s short enough a price given I am not sure whether he’s gonna be held up or tracking the pace today. I feel you are going to struggle coming from off the pace today.

The prices tracks into a direction that says “no hope” but it simply is a silly price on offer for New York City. On any measure he isn’t that far away from the market principles.

He was disappointing as 6/5 favourite in a Group 3 at Naas latest. He didn’t travel overly well, looked perhaps a bit distracted too. He won really well at Navan before that though and ran to topspeed 100 that day.

Blinkers on an drop to the minimum trip on fast ground at the Curragh with the stiff finish should suit perfectly. Wayne Lordan on board is not so much a negative given he’s riding plenty of winners at the moment.

New York City is not a superstar and unlikely to develop into a proper Group 1 sprinter. But this is a wide open race if the two market principles don’t fire.

10pts win – New York City @ 18.5