There’s every chance a filly is the best horse in Germany’s classic generation this year. And that says something, given Derby hero Sammarco looks a special colt.
Nonetheless, it was the filly Wagnis who took on the colts in the Derby, who seriously caught my eye that day at Hamburg. With Holly Doyle in the saddle she was fancied in the betting but ultimately encountered the most horrible run from the widest draw in stall 20.
She had to race in rear of the field, which was no advantage at all, and had way too much to do turning for home. Just before the home straight entering the final bend Wagnis stumbled badly and nearly threw Holly Doyle off. The pair recovered, made rapid progress toward inside just to find no room to manouver over 1 furlong out.
Given the circumstances Wagnis confirmed the incredible promise she showed weeks earlier in the Group 3 Diane Trial at Hoppegarten. Then she produced a serious turn of foot to win in style, leaving some solid opposition behind.
It was this dazzling performance so that made connections believe she is good enough to take on the boys in the Derby.
Wagnis is clearly a temperamental filly at the same time. Not an easy ride. She can mess up at the start. She can pull hard. She can find trouble.
That’s a real concern today, where we have with Nachtrose a highly talented and uncomplicated filly, who can go from the front and will stay all day and night.
Nachtrose was a fine winner of the Oaks d’Italia. That was only her third lifetime start, after getting off the mark in a maiden at Munich in April.
She is progressing rapidly and has formally the strongest winning form in this field, given the Italian Oaks are a Group 2. There’s every chance she can improve again. And if she does she may be hard to catch.
In addition Nachtrose has been handed a huge advantage with stall #3. She will get the run she wants, most likely prominent, tracking the pace, if not even attempting to make all.
I don’t rate Toy, Aiden O’Brien’s runner. She improved quite dramatically when a good runner-up in the Irish Derby. But it was a decimated field that day and she doesn’t possess the class some others in this field do.
Well Disposed was a fine winner of the Group 3 Mehl Mulhens-Trophy on the Derby card at Hamburg when last seen. She could improve again but was well beaten by Wagnis in the Diane Trial.
From the bigger prices I give Toscana Belle a solid each-way chance. She changed yards recently, after running on quite well n the Diane Trial. The additional furlong will suit today.
But it’s Wagnis I must go with. She is too big a price. She will need some luck, given most likely she will come from off the pace. I imagine there’ll be a good pace, which will suit, though. It’s a smaller field than at Hamburg, which is a positive too. I have no doubt she is the most talented filly in the race. Here’s hoping she can prove it today.
Highly competitive affair. Pace will decide the outcome. My conclusion is the race will likely develop towards the lower drawn horses and that means some of the better fancied runners drawn high would need career-best performances to win.
The obvious choice, drawn in #2 is Rohaan, after his tremendous Royal Ascot performance. He has the form, the topspeed and the draw. He may be able to benefit from trailing a fast pace to be unleashed late with a turn of foot. Not sure whether the scenario today will really suit him, though at this track. Those in front may not stop so quickly. He looks a fair price but nothing better.
Chil Chil is really intriguing. Has top form on the book and ran to topspeed 103 two times in a row when last seen in even hotter class. If close to that form after a long break she’s the one to beat, but it’s exactly the long break that put me off.
Happy Romance is in fine form. She’s been running well all year long. Only 2 lengths beaten in the Jubilee Stakes, she couldn’t follow up at Newmarket, but had the worst draw to overcome that day. #10 today isn’t ideal either; no juice left in the price.
I can’t quite trust Minzaal after two solid but not exciting showings this year, especially with his best form coming on slower ground. Man Of Promise needs to step up significantly to feature. Not impossible but do I want to back a 5-year-old sprinter in the hope he suddenly finds 5-10lb on speed ratings? No.
The one I like against the grain is Saint Lawrence. He caught my eye earlier this year on his seasonal return at Newmarket over the minimum trip after a wind operation during his lay-off.
He finished really nicely that day in a race that looks pretty solid form, even though 5 furlongs is clearly way too hot for him. He stayed over this trip the next two times, neither disgraced at Chantilly and certainly not in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot.
It was seriously impressive how Saint Lawrence stuck to the task in the final furlong, posting the second fastest final furlong split, even though he looked going backwards from over two furlongs out, given things happened simply too quickly for him.
Fast ground is what he wants and no doubt he’s in top form. Moving up to 6 furlongs is only a positive. I reckon he’s actually best over 7 furlongs, but given his #4 draw, the pace scenario here and good Newbury record I am happy to back him at a big price to outrun the odds.
10pts win – Saint Lawrence @ 17/1
3.10 Curragh: Group 2 Sapphire Stakes, 5f
The top two in the market should fight this out. Mooneista and Equilateral are the clear stand out horses in the field in my view, even though official ratings would make you believe Castle Star and Cadamosto have equal or better chances to feature.
Castle Star certainly has every right to go close after a strong runner-up performance behind Perfect Power at Royal Ascot. But 5 furlongs could be plenty sharp enough, especially on fast ground after a long break, and after seven career starts his highest topspeed ratings stands at 99. Nothing too exciting.
Cadamosto was 4th in the Commonwealth Cup, had no chance in the July Cup and has an inflated Official Rating in my view. His best topspeed is 88. He could take a step forward, of course. It has to be giant one to land a blow here against the well fancied older sprinters.
Mooneista is a class act. Highly consistent, ran multiple times really well this season already, without getting her head in front. This is easier than at Royal Ascot but her poor strike rate doesn’t make me want to back her at a tight price.
As many others I was fuming on front of the telly when Equilateral got the most horrible run at Sandown a fortnight ago. He’s obviously in excellent form, having ran really well in the King’s Stand Stakes on his seasonal reappearance.
He’s the one to beat today. Ground, track and trip will probably suit. He’s short enough a price given I am not sure whether he’s gonna be held up or tracking the pace today. I feel you are going to struggle coming from off the pace today.
The prices tracks into a direction that says “no hope” but it simply is a silly price on offer for New York City. On any measure he isn’t that far away from the market principles.
He was disappointing as 6/5 favourite in a Group 3 at Naas latest. He didn’t travel overly well, looked perhaps a bit distracted too. He won really well at Navan before that though and ran to topspeed 100 that day.
Blinkers on an drop to the minimum trip on fast ground at the Curragh with the stiff finish should suit perfectly. Wayne Lordan on board is not so much a negative given he’s riding plenty of winners at the moment.
New York City is not a superstar and unlikely to develop into a proper Group 1 sprinter. But this is a wide open race if the two market principles don’t fire.
The Aiden O’Brien trained favourite Cougar is unlikely to be anywhere near pattern class, and that throws the race wide open. No doubt I am seriously interested in Active Duty, trained by Ger Lyons – a huge eye-catcher on his racecourse debut back in March.
This son of the brilliant Almanzor saw plenty of support in the betting market on that day, although, he was always likely to play second fiddle behind odds-on favourite Stone Age, who was a couple of months later a highly fancied contender in the Epsom Derby.
Stone Age won from the front giving the form a really solid look, while Active Duty settled well in rear for the majority of the race. Still trailing at the end of the field when turning for home, he soon started to make a big move on the outside once asked for serious effort. Despite showing clear signs of inexperience, he finished the race in impressive style under a hands and heels ride, producing a thunder turn of foot.
Active Duty was an expensive £260k yearling. Right now it doesn’t look like he can live up to this lofty price tag. But he was an April foal, which means it’s a fair possibility he can improve significantly with time and experiencee.
Not to forget this will only be his third career start. For that he drops back to 10 furlongs after a rather disappointing 5th place finish at Navan over 1 mile 5 furlongs. He made a promising looking move from the back of the field swinging around the wide outside turning for home, but the effort petered out. He didn’t appear to stay the trip. That form has worked out rather well already.
The drop in distance should suit I reckon. On pedigree 10 furlongs seem to be the ideal trip. Nonetheless the question mark is why connections felt the need to run him over the longer trip already on his second career start. Perhaps he lacks natural speed.
Although, judged on his debut effort, he seems to possess a turn of foot. Back then he also ran to topspeed 73. Which is pretty solid for a debut performance.
In any case it’s too early to give up on him. This is a winnable race for him. and he looks overpriced.
10pts win – Active Duty @ 6.6
2.35 Greyville: KZN Breeders Mile, 1m
Nexus stands out as a major chance over in Greyville today in a race he should be touching odds-on in my book. He is the only one that combines class, course and distance form and should enjoy the solid pace that I expect to be set here. He also tops the speed ratings by a country mile in these conditions in this field.
He didn’t set the world alight on his return over shorter but the race developed up front anyways and he was always likely to come on. He’s weighted to win this as the second highest rated horse behind top-class sprinter Battle Force who I reckon won’t see out the trip.
Obviously all eyes will be on former champion jockey Piere Strydom who makes his return on Nexus before his ride in the Durban July next Saturday. His fitness is a slight question mark, but on the other hand I’m sure Nexus will be primed to give the champ a taste for victory today.
This wouldn’t be my race and price normally. But with so many question marks about pretty much everyone else in this field, and Nexus having fitness assured, going well on this track, over his ideal distance with the weights in his favours, can’t pass it.
I am currently going through the worst slump of “form” in the last half a decade or so of my serious “betting career”. It starts to become farcical. Even though the first three months of my 2022 betting year (March, April, May) were all green, June wears me down.
It’s just not working. Or something of the process isn’t working. The initial stage of video analysis and identifying potential horses for future opportunities works extremely well. The eye-catchers perform as well as never before, actually. But I don’t back them. It seems right now I have lost the touch for making good decisions.
Some days I am too conservative, others not patient enough. There’s the odd winner here or there, but they don’t offset the losing days. Their prices are too low, or more the fact of the matter is I don’t get “value”.
I never had a high strike rate, often back bigger prices. It’s inevitable that you have dry spells. But if things go so badly wrong for an entire month as they do right now it’s not all down to “bad luck” or variance. It’s down to poor decisions too. Not sure how to rectify this at the moment.
Hopefully things will turn around. But hoping is fearing. And I somehow fear I lost it. I see this also reflected in how the prices I take compare to ISP and BSP. Doesn’t make for good reading. I used to beat them regularly with my selections in the past. Doesn’t happen at the moment.
That’s a little ramble I had to get off the chest. Well, it’s Irish Derby Derby. I am excited going down to the Curragh no matter what. The race looks a compelling edition. Although I stay away from it betting wise. Here’s hoping those betting decision I have made for Sturday will turn out to be good ones, though.
3.30 Newcastle: Class 2 Handicap, 2m
Bandinelli shaped a lot better at Ascot than the 6.5 lengths beaten performance suggested. He was clearly minded in the closing stages after it became obvious that he couldn’t win.
From a wide draw he moved across quickly to chase the pace but was caught wide around the first bend. He raced wide for the majority of the race. He made a good looking move into the home straight but wasn’t able to sustain it.
Back over two miles on the All-Weather he looks dangerous. Still rather unexposed over the trip, his excellent record on the sand gives him a better chance than the price if he can only find a tiny bit of improvement, which is far from impossible.
A good draw will ensure he can find a good early position somewhere behind the leaders, in fourth or fifth perhaps. I think he will run a massive race and is undervalued in the market.
10pts win- Bandinelli @ 22/1
2.35 Curragh: Listed Celebration Stakes, 1m
The arriving rain makes this interesting, otherwise this listed contest would be quite a dull and poor renewal. It is a near certainty – unless they absolutely crawl – that Straight Answer doesn’t stay a mile, certainly not up the stiff Curragh finish.
The two standout horses in the field are 4-year old Raadobarg on one side. The more rain the better for him. He’s clearly a rock solid miler at this level and especially dangerous with significant ease in the ground.
At this point in time it’s not quite clear how soft the going will turn out. There’s a status yellow rain warning live for then next 20 hours. It sounds more like some isolated showers are coming, that’s for sure.
The rain brings Irish 2000 Guineas 4th Wexford Native into the equation too. He’s probably best with some ease in the going too and still offers some upside with more improvement to come.
He could be the sort that thrives on racing, given he has improved nearly with each race this season. You can put a line through the Royal Ascot performance. His cause was lost after the first furlong.
After an impressive debut win in March, he was comprehensively beaten by Buckaroo in Listed company, although he ran on well, even after being short of room over 1f out.
In the 2000 Guineas he tracked the pace, got closer with each passing furlong and fought gamely, still challenging Native Trail entering the final furlong. He tired but fared much the best of those closer to the pace and that performance can be marked up in my view.
Wexford Native can be quite keen and fighting for his head. I hope that with experience and maturity he can settle better. He will probably be close to the pace again, given he doesn’t have a turn of foot and looks more a grinder. Probably ridden sooner than most rivals he should be able to grind his way to the line making it a proper test. He has enough class to win.
10pts win – Wexford Native @ 4/1
4.20 Curragh: Group 3 International Stakes, 1m 2f
Mac Swiney can give Jim Bolger a double on the card. He drops significantly in class here. He was a long way beaten in the highly competitive Tattersalls Gold Cup but that was his comeback run and I would expect him to improve,
He won the Irish 2000 Guineas last year, was a credible 4th in the Epsom Derby, although perhaps not quite staying the trip, and finished a fine 3rd in the Champions Stakes. He’s a proven top level performer.
The rain will surely aid his chances. The more the better, of course. Even if doesn’t turn properly soft, he simply looks a class above the rest in this field.
10pts win – Mac Swiney @ 10/3
7.15 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f
Gold Charm took well to the step up in trip to 12 furlongs the last time at Thirsk. She finished the strongest after being briefly flat footed over 2 furlongs out
With that performance she confirmed the promise she showed in her Handicap debut at Lingfield a few weeks earlier. She caught my eye that day when she travelled stylishly into the home straight and finished much the best.
She has plenty of stamina in her pedigree, and matching that with the visual impression of her last two races it’s clear the 1m 4f trip doesn’t pose any problems. The return to the Lingfield polytrack is a positive and this in combination with the trip can unlock improvement.
2022 is a unique edition of the Derby as there is not a single Group 1 winner in the field. With that in mind the race is a wide open contest and the betting deceptive.
In fairness, that’s probably one of the phrases I (too?) often use. Perhaps it’s down to a simply tendency of mine to take on short-priced favourites. However, I truly feel this Derby is a wide open contest. A huge upset isn’t out of question. One only has to look back at the previous years to find that a long-shot winner isn’t something out of the ordinary, anyway.
That’s not to say Desert Crown – 2/1 favourite at the time of writing – won’t turn out the be the best horse in the race. He could be a superstar in the making.
The fact he won the Dante in impressive style on what was only his second career run and seasonal reappearance, despite uneasiness in the market beforehand, rates as significant in my book.
Will he stay? It’s widely assumed he does. As a son of Nathanial he should posses plenty of stamina. The way he kept going and hit the line in the Date suggests he got every chance to stay the Derby trip.
I’ve got concerns, regardless. Green Desert as the dam’s sire. Yes, some of the dam’s offspring stayed 1m 4f. Nonetheless it’s far from certain Desert Crown truly want’s the trip.
Not to glance over the fact he’s also a highly inexperienced horse, hasn’t encountered anything close to the test Epsom provides, the rain is unlikely to be of any help to him either, and we have a large field with 16 other horses all competing for positions and a clear run once they leave Tattenham Corner behind.
Yet, I’ve come slowly around to the believe he is most likely the most talented colt in the Derby field – once we look back in a few years time. In the context of today and everything that comes with it I have to oppose him at the given price, though. I have him more a 7/2 shot than the 2/1-9/4 on offer this morning.
Aiden O’Brien won the Oaks on Friday and he could do the double today. Stone Age is widely assumed to be his prime chance in the Derby. The Leopardstown Derby Trial winner has got his head in front twice this year after failing to do so as a juvenile in five starts.
He was visually impressive at Leopardstown, although his overall profile doesn’t scream Derby winner to me. Topspeed underlines this notion. He ran to 88 and 91 in those races this year. He has to improve significantly. Not a price to back.
Frankie Dettori’s mount Piz Badile enhanced his Derby claims with victory in the Ballysax. The impression he gave that day was he will stay all day long given how strongly he rallied in the home straight. He may well do. An 81 career best topspeed rating (71 in the Ballysax) means he’s got to improve significantly, though. I’m not convinced he will improve so dramatically for the trip.
The incredibly impressive winner of the Newmarket Stakes was Nations Pride. Godolpin’s first string and choice of William Buick today. He’s an obvious improver on his sixth career run having progressed with each run to date. My concern is the trip, once again. The line through his dam out of Oasis Dream doesn’t scream stamina in abundance.
From the other two Godolphin runners – Nahaani and Walk Of Stars – the latter is the one I would prefer. Last years Derby winning rider is on board Nahaani, but the colt doesn’t appear to have enough class I believe.
Walk Of Stars could have the class, though. Runner-up in the Lingfield Derby trial, he ran to topspeed 99 that day; he’s is still very much learning his trade. Stamina won’t be an issue. I expect him to improve for his fifth career run, the additional half furlong and possibly the emphasis on stamina today, depending how the race pans out. He is a big price at 16/1+. The track is a serious question mark, on the other hand and that makes me waver.
Star Of India won the Dee Stakes at Chester. He ran to topspeed 99 that day. Whatever the ground today, I don’t have too much concern about it, neither over track and trip. But how much more can he improve? The family hasn’t been top-class to the most part yet. He’s a full-brother to S J Tourbillon, these day an ordinary handicapper in Hong Kong.
It’s the question of the day: how much can these horses improve? You can’t be too sure about any of the fancied horses that they have it in them to progress to the level required to land the Derby in the ground, over this trip at this track.
In truth that’s only natural for three-year-old colts. My issue is the potential improvement is taken for granted in the betting for the likes of Desert Crown and Stone Age. I’m much more cynical in only believing what I’m seeing.
Which leaves me with Changingoftheguard. He has been on my mind ever since winning the Chester Vase in brilliant style. Sure, the form can be knocked for its small and rather uncompetitive field on soft ground. The favourite didn’t fire and left the race to win for the Aiden O’Brien trained colt.
Nonetheless, Changingoftheguard did it the “hard way”. Ryan Moore went to the front and pushed on right from the start. The son of Galileo galloped the others into submission. And he didn’t stop in the home straight. He just kept going all the way to the line.
He achieved a 106 topspeed rating for the Chester performance – a strong marker and the best on offer in the field today. With that in mind Changingoftheguard has delivered on multiple fronts unlike many of his rivals today.
However, he’s all stamina and vulnerable if the Derby would become a test of speed rather than stamina. But Wayne Lordan – not the most inspired jockey booking – has a say in how the race pans out. From his double-figure draw he can move forward and dictate, if he wants to. He won’t need to worry about stamina.
The application of cheek pieces is added bonus. This has worked wonders for Aiden O’Brien trained colts in this race before. It can help bring out additional improvement in Changingoftheguard too.
Therefore I feel the prices available, with the ground unlikely to be too fast, are way over the top. Any further rain beyond what hit Epsom this morning already will be a big help. And that’s why this lad is going to be hard to pass once in front.
On paper this years Oaks looks not a brilliant renewal, albeit a wide open one, with plenty of potential improvers for the Oaks distance. With that in mind I struggle to warm to short-priced favourite Emily Upjohn.
I understand why she’s well fancied today. Her Musidora victory was impressive. As a daughter of Sea The Stars she appears more than likely to stay the trip and it’s equally reasonable to assume she can improve for her fourth career run.
But she has to. The York performance was only worth a 95 topspeed rating. Solid but doesn’t scream 13/8 favourite. She may well take this crucial next step and can progress to the level the market generally assumes she’ll be capable of running to.
At the same time this can be said about a number of other fillies in this field full of likely improvers. Whether that’s Cheshire Oaks winner Thoughts Of June (quite appropriately named), stable mate Tuesday – a full-sister to 2016 Oaks heroine Minding, or Trial Stakes winner Nashwa. I could make a case for half the field.
But the two fillies that caught my eye more than anybody else – and I can’t split them – are Concert Hall and the only Godolphin entry With The Moonlight.
It’s no surprise that a full-sister to previous Oaks winner Was should feature highly on any short-list. Hence I am seriously surprised to see Concert Hall available at incredibly generous odds – I feel.
I was interested in her for the Irish 2000 Guineas, but it turned out the drop in trip didn’t really suit her. She didn’t posses the speed needed and got badly outpaced from over three furlongs out. But, crucially, she ran on strongly to finish 3rd eventually.
Perhaps it wasn’t the deepest Guineas field, nonetheless, the fact she was able to finish so strongly over an inadequate trip is noteworthy. Aiden O’Brien mentioned beforehand the filly thrives on racing and the Curragh outing would be a stepping stone towards Epsom.
In that light it’s even more significant that she won on her seasonal reappearance at Navan in the Listed Salsabil Stakes – form that looks rock solid. She gave the impression that she wouldn’t mind an additional couple of furlongs that day.
Therefore the Oaks trip looks a good match. Whether she handles the track is a different matter. She clearly has Oaks written all over and with a solid draw should be up there when it matters in my view.
With The Moonlight isn’t quite as clear-cut if it comes to stamina for the Oaks distance. Her pedigree points more towards middle-distance 10 furlongs. And yet, the way she finished at Newmarket was so impressive, giving the impression she could stretch out to 12 furlongs. And certainly giving the impression of a seriously talented filly.
I loved everything about that performance. It’s noteworthy also for the fact because that day she achieved the fasted topspeed rating on offer in the Oaks field.
Whether she can translate this speed to Epsom is the key question. As a full-sister to Group 1 winning Dream Castle she will certainly have the class. Her striding patterns, as far as available to me, give the indication that she has a fair chance to see out the trip, though.
Perhaps she will be ridden with a little bit more restraint today than at Newmarket. If she settles well, it should give William Buick plenty of options how to ride the race, given she possesses a lot of cruising speed, that is crucial at Epsom in my view.
Both fillies, With The Moonlight and Concert Hall appear seriously overpriced in the market in my book.
5pts win – With the Moonlight @ 14/1 5pts win – Concert Hall @ 13.5/1
7.16 Doncaster: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
This looks like the ideal race I had in mind for Golden Apollo to get his head in front again. Since his eye catching run at Thirsk he ran another fine race at York in a big handicap over 7 furlongs where he got badly hampered.
He drops down to 6 furlongs, is three pounds lower in the mark than at Thirsk and runs in a wide open class 4 contest. The favourite may well be on the up and could be able to defy his increased mark – Golden Apollo is at this stage of his career vulnerable to any unexposed improving sort.
But at the same time he’s dangerously well handicapped in my view, given his wellbeing is confirmed.
The golden years are obviously behind the 8-year-old but he still performed of marks in the 80s last year and also ran to topspeed 84 when runner-up in a hot Redcar Handicap.
He’s been a shade unlucky a number times too in the meantime, including the last two; as a results his mark is reduced all the time. This looks an ideal opportunity to strike.
10pts win – Golden Apollo @ 9/1
7.37 Goodwood: Class 3 Handicap, 6f
I was very taken with Kimngrace the last time at Sandown when she was seriously unlucky over the minimum trip. Today she steps up to 6 furlongs, which should be the perfect distance for this exciting and potentially well handicapped filly.
At Sandown after a steadied start she settled in rear of the field. She made some smooth progress from over three furlongs out but was stuck behind a bunch of horses and a clear passage denied until very late. She finished well when a bit of racing room opened up in the closing stages.
The winner made all from the front, the runner-up and third raced close to the pace too. Given these circumstances this was a big run on what was Kimngrace’s seasonal reappearance. The form is seriously strong as well.
She looks a filly open to considerable improvement, possibly more so now stepping up to 6 furlongs again. When last seen in 2021 she won a Maiden race at Haydock over 6f and looked at home over the trip. That particular form worked out well with the runner-up having ran a huge race in the Fred Darling Stakes this season.
10pts win – Kimngrace @ 10/3
7.51 Doncaster: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f
Gibside has caught the eye a number of times this year. He’s certainly a tricky sort, can be temperamental, gets upset in the stall and looks a horse doing things in his own time.
There was good money all day for him last time out at Ripon when he stepped up to 12 furlongs for the first time – a trip that he should appreciate.
He ran really well over shorter 10 furlongs on two occasions at Beverley previously, when things didn’t go his way and he ran better than the bare result suggested.
The same can be said about this most recent Ripon run. Of course at some point you’re not unlucky but it’s more what you truly are. Nonetheless, I feel Gibside deserves another chance.
He was unruly in the starting gate, slowly away, trailed the field and raced generally highly inefficient with a move at the halfway stage costing vital energy and another huge move turning for home from 4 furlongs out on the wide outside.
He paid for it in the final three furlongs, yet finished in 3rd eventually. Coming from so far back was a huge disadvantage. The runner-up led the field, the winner raced in midfield.
I feel a more conventional, flat track like Doncaster will suit this big, rangy gelding much more than Beverley, or even Ripon. No excuses today. I must stress though he is on the drift this morning – at the same time it ensures a seriously good price, if he is in it to win it today.
10pts win – Gibside @ 6.8/1
Added after initial post – 12.30:
3.10 Group 1 Coronation Cup, 1m 4f
High Definition has drifted into a serious price to the point I feel he’s so far overpriced I have to add him as a bet today. By no means is he’s a 11/2+ shot in this field.
No question that if on song Pyledriver is the one to beat. A consistent top-class horse, the defending champion which saw him achieve a career best here last year. He ran well at Meydan when last seen. If he’s close to the form he showed twelve months ago he’s probably hard to beat.
I can’t have Manobo around 2/1 at all. He is lightly raced and open to considerable improvement. On the other hand he’s clearly shown to need a trip to be seen to best effect. Dropping back to 1m 4f is a major question mark for me.
Hukum has only once in his career ran to a topspeed rating of 100. That dates back to 2020, or nine runs. It would need some of the others to misfire for him to win.
High Definition backs up quickly. That is my major concern. He has been a disappointing horse ever since showing so much promise as a juvenile. But the level of form he produced last time out at the Curragh in the Tattersalles Cup is right up there with the best of Pyledriver.
He got a superb ride that day, and clearly that has to be taken into account as a source of the improvement. Nonetheless, he made it a true test going from the front and was just beaten in the dying strides in a top-class field.
He ran to topspeed 108 at that day. I feel it’s a genuine performance. If he can show this level of form today he has a major chance.
At given prices he’s clearly overpriced with ground ad trip not really being a worry in my view.