Tag Archives: Derby

Eyecatchers

Flat Horses to Follow 2024

4 Comments

The flat is back and quickly kicks into gear. As is customary tradition for this time of the year: here’s a selection of horses to follow throughout the 2024 flat season.

My main focus is once again on potential Group level performers – although some may turn out to develop (“only”?) into classy handicappers. In any case, I hope the following 10 horses do offer indeed significant upside based on what they have shown as juveniles.

In truth, hardly any of these are “dark horses”. I haven’t read any of the numerous “horses to follow” pieces yet, neither any of the more prominent stable tours, in order to avoid getting influenced; nonetheless, if you’re browsing Twitter you can’t escape that some names have been prominently mentioned.

Even though this list had been compiled weeks ago already, and only waited to be published with the start of the new flat season, I can hardly claim to have uncovered “original material”.

In any case, this is an exciting time of the year. All hopes still alive. That lends itself perfectly to take a cheeky look back, also.

HTF 2023 Review:

The 2023 edition did quite well in general. Not every horse turned out be a future star of our beloved sport. But some shot right to the top of the game, while others won decent enough races. If I only would have backed them all when it mattered most.

Nonetheless, the stars of the “class of 23” were clearly Continuous – an excellent winner of the St Leger, as well as Oaks heroine Soul Sister, who was also my biggest winner last year when she landed the Musidora where I backed her at 20s.

English and Irish Guineas placed Hi Royal, Coronation Stakes runner-up Remarquee and impressive Royal Ascot scorer Coppice were other notable horses achieving success in 2023.

………..

Anzac Day
3yo colt – Andrew Balding

Green on debut when he missed the kick and as a consequence was left with a mountain to climb in a race that favoured the front due to the pace..

Finished very strongly in the final furlong and hinted ability if he could learn and move up in trip, given his pedigree screams stamina.

He moved up an additional furlong ten days later at Newmarket. A fine start, he was soon toward the front of the pack and travelled really well. As he increased the tempo from over 3f out, he soon kicked clear and was not the be caught.

A superb run as he beat a good Godolphin horse in second. The speed rating of 89 confirmed the visual impression. He’ll improve as he moves up to 12 furlongs and could be a dark horse for the Derby.

Azada
3yo filly – Dermot Weld

Impressive finish on debut from the back of the field in horrible ground when she accelerated in superb style from 3f out to leave the rest of the field standing, all while overcoming early greenness.

Achieved an excellent 82 debut speed rating. Looks one with plenty of scope as a 3-year-old, though may need soft ground to be seen to best effect.

A step up to a mile will be no problem whatsoever. Beyond that remains to be seen. The Galileo mare produced a 10f Group 1 winner in Australia, though.

British Camp
3yo colt – Andrew Balding

British Camp was green on his debut. Missed the break and was early enough off the bridle entering the home straight.

Three light backhanders later and finished off nicely under alight enough ride in the closing stages to win it on the line, with seemingly much more left in the tank.

Ran five furlongs of the final mile the fastest sectionals, including the final two furlongs, dipping easily under 12s, in a pretty competitive race, beating some nice horses.

He wasn’t expected on the day. The late May foal drifted out 18/1 before the off. He did plenty wrong, didn’t enjoy the best of trips, and still won also achieving a superb debut speed rating of 84.

Trained by Andrew Balding, British Camp is very well bred and related to smart individuals in his family. He should be capable of getting 1m 4f, but a fast 10 furlongs may be ideal at this stage of his career.

Galen
3yo colt – Joseph O’Brien

Very impressive debut in a maiden where he finished only second behind City Of Try. Missed break, possibly by design, then travelled well against the inside off the pace. Nice progress but in a pocked and had to switch before he ran home strongly, chasing COT.

Wasn’t seen since July. That’s a big question mark. Things must have gone wrong. But he has a Guineas and Derby entry and looks potentially a seriously exciting prospect over 7f to a mile, if there are no further issues.

God’s Window
3yo colt – John Gosden

Showed a likable turn of foot on debut at Doncaster in soft ground despite not being advantaged by how the race developed early on, travelling without cover the first 1.5 furlongs, and coming from off the pace in a slowly run race.

Good 77 debut speed rating. Deemed good enough to contest a deep Futurity Stakes. Missed the break and was quite keen in the early part of the race. Badly positioned but impressive finish for third.

Can only improve as he moves up in trip. Out of an Oaks Trial winner, by Dubawi, he looks an intriguing Derby prospect.

Grosvenor Square
3yo colt – Aiden O’Brien

Gutsy Galway winner on debut. Looked green and clueless enough, especially around the sharp bends. Connections have introduced smart horses in this particular race in the past.

The son of Galileo doesn’t look flashy and doesn’t seem to do anything in a hurry either. He ran well for third travelling quite wide, although he also appeared one paced in the Beresford.

He was seen to much better effect on his final run last year, moving up to 9 furlongs in the Eyrefield Stakes at Leopardstown where he kicked nicely from the front to win with ease.

He’s certainly going to be better the further he goes, as his pedigree suggests, as a son of Galileo and a half-brother to Santiago. Not the classiest in the stable for now, but solid speed ratings over sharp enough trips for this colt as a juvenile, that suggests there is plenty of upside.

Henry Longfellow
3yo colt – Aiden O’Brien

This son of Dubawi and Minding looks the real deal. Visually and on the clock he’s been nothing short of impressive in his three career runs as a juvenile.

The way he quickened on debut and next time in the Futurity Stakes from the front on both occasions was highly promising. He subsequently made top-class 2-year-old Bucanero Fuerte look like a lowly rated claimer in the National Stakes.

Most likely some of that had to do with the fact BF didn’t quite get home over the trip in a fast race. Nonetheless, Henry Longfellow, once again confirmed the impressions from his first two runs.

A seemingly uncomplicated individual, he was able to quicken from the front as well as chase a pace and pass rivals. He looks to possess plenty of scope as well.

The visual impressions are backed up by speed ratings. 85 on debut – that’s often the sign of a potentially classy individual. 101 in the Futurity. Confirmed by a 100 speed rating in the National Stakes.

He has the 2000 Guineas written all over his profile. I’m not an ante-post backer but would be seriously temped by the 6-7/1 available right now. Not totally impossible that he can stretch out to the Derby trip, either, although 10 furlongs may be the limit.

Inisherin
3yo colt – Kevin Ryan

Only half a lengths beaten on debut when market expected nothing (50/1). Travelled the best to 2f out and only beaten by a vastly more experienced horse. Fine 76 speed rating for a debut.

Impressive victory on seasonal return at Newcastle. Benefited from prime position in a really slowly run race but was impressive the way he finished easily sprinting clear under hands and heels with two subsequent sub-11s furlongs.

Looks sure to improve for experience and a step up in trip looks ideal on pedigree. Out of smart Ajman Princess who was Lanshire Oaks 3rd and winner of the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet.

A stiff mile and a strong pace could also work, especially in the early part of the season, possibly. Maybe not a prime contender for a 2000 Guineas, but could have an outside chance.

One Look
3yo filly – Paul Twomey

Overcame a stiff task on debut to take on vastly more experienced rivals in the highly competitive Goffs Million at the Curragh. She obliterated her rivals thanks to superb acceleration from 3f out.

She benefitted from a solid pace and got the gaps when needed that day but the way she put the race to bed was nothing short of astonishing. That’s backed by a sensational 92 debut speed rating.

Not sure she’ll get much further than a mile given the speed she showed and the dam doing her best work over a mile, too. She may need soft ground as well, as it appears she hits the ground quite hard.

Uluru
3yo filly – Joseph O’Brien

Impressive debut at Gowran Park from a wide draw where she didn’t get too well away at the start. Nonetheless, she ran away with it in the end and clocked an excellent 81 speed rating.

Changed hands afterwards and was desperately unlucky for new owners Team Valor in her final start last season. It wasn’t a good pace, she was stuck in the pack and just couldn’t get out. Did well to finish 4th.

She looks capable of improving into a stakes filly. The dam won over 12 furlongs, so a step up in trip will surely help her to improve. She also has an early season entry at Naas in March.

Betting

Sunday Selections: 22nd October 2023

Leave a comment

First winner in roughly two months yesterday (with seven weeks break in between, though). And it couldn’t have been a better one. Big Rock demolished the field in the QEII.

I couldn’t quite believe the performance. As he established an eight lengths lead….. he didn’t tire and romped home in spectacular fashion.

The other jockeys seemed asleep on the wheel, on the other hand. How could they all gift this highly talented colt such a huge, uncontested lead?

It was a superb run by Swingalong in the Champions Sprint. She finished a gallant 4th, outran her odds and briefly looked like she may even win. Cant complain.

…….

3.20 Leopardstown: Listed Trigo Stakes, 10f

The two top-rated horses Lafayette and Sprewell are clearly the horses who should fight this out. They stand out in terms of their achievements this year.

Lafayette has been consistent for the most part this year, enjoys soft ground, stays the trip and will find this opposition a bit easier. Nonetheless, there’s an argument to be made that he’s been seen to best effect away from Leopardstown.

The opposite is true for Sprewell. He showed a lot of promise early in the season when he improved from a winning reappearance at Naas to land the Derby Trial here at Leopardstown in fine style as he denied solid yardstick Up And Under.

I wrote before how much I loved his Epsom Derby run, even though it’s probably fair to say Sprewell didn’t put his talent to best effect in two subsequent races.

In saying that, there’re solid reasons for that. For one, he raced against hot opposition in the Irish Derby and then in the Irish Champion Stakes. He also, it seems pretty clear now, prefers a softer going.

Leopardstown, 10 furlongs and plenty of give in the ground will suit today. Sprewell should enjoy this significant drop in class as well. He deserves his chance today heading the field as the favourite in my mind.

I’m happy I got my full stake matched over night at a touch over 5/2 on various exchanges, though that is rapidly disappearing and I probably would find anything below 2/1 too short for me personally, just as a side note.

10pts win – Sprewell @ 5/2

Betting

Sunday Selections: 2nd July 2023

Leave a comment

3.00 Curragh: Premier Handicap, 5f

Competitive in nature as these sprint handicaps tend to be, there are about a handful – at most – handicapped to win. British raider Came From The Dark is definitely one of those.

He was a massive eyecatcher last time in the infamous Epsom Dash where he finished the fastest over the last three furlongs.

That day he had a lot to do after missing the break and getting pushed over to his right by a rival right after leaving the gate. Eventually he ran on incredibly strongly with a huge effort on the far side of the track.

That run confirmed the impression he gave at Newmarket before, where he also finished the best and was somewhat unfortunate finding himself behind horses at a crucial stage.

Clearly Came From The Dark is in sensational form. However, he didn’t get off to a good start the last two times now. Is this a new habit? A clear concern, as it would be game over here if he loses a lengths at the start.

On the other hand, the uphill finish over 5f at the Curragh should suit a lot and he is drawn right around a lot of pace to possibly tow him into the finish, where he needs possibly a bit of luck for the gap to open.

Off 89 he’s well-handicapped, no doubt. Ground, trip and track will suit.

10pts win – Came From The Dark @ 15/2

……

3.40 Curragh: Group 1 Irish Derby, 1m 4f

Auguste Rodin is the overwhelming favourite and there’s every reason to believe he can do the special Epsom & Curragh double today.

Too imposing was his performance last month in the English Derby, as he cruised into contention over two furlongs out and kicked clear off a very good colt in King Of Steel.

He ran home the fastest over the final three furlongs and did it easily. There’s no doubt he’s incredibly hard to beat. Perhaps he’s nearly unbeatable – as much the odds suggest.

Aiden O’Brien has assembled an armada of runners, probably to ensure a safe passage and solid pace.

Unfortunately the final field has somewhat cut up to the point where the Irish Derby becomes nearly a family affair for the O’Brien clan. In saying that, the two “foreigners” are of huge interest, and add spice to the race, nonetheless.

White Birch has proven himself to be a seriously talented colt. On speed figures his runner-up performance in the Dante rates actually a pound higher than Auguste Rodin’s Derby victory.

Different track, different trip, though. Nonetheless, the Ballysax winner caught the eye in the Dante and subsequently the Derby with the way he finished his races. Both times not ideally placed.

If he could start better, and doesn’t give himself too much to do early on, he’ll be closer at this more conventional track, that is the Curragh. The likely good pace and stiff finish should suit.

The other one is Sprewell, Jessica Harrington’s colt. A winner of a minor race at Naas on his seasonal debut, he showed signs of developing into a really good one in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown.

He kicked nicely clear in the final furlong of the talented Up And Under, who is also here today, trained by Joseph O’Brien, and one who also could feature.

Sprewell, though, is the one I’m most interested in for win purposes against Auguste Rodin. The question then is, what are the reasons for him to find seven lengths today? That was the distance he found himself behind at Epsom, where he finished 4th.

The factors that could see him getting a lot closer this time are the track, the ground and the hope for natural improvement.

Epsom was only his fifth career start, but the first time going over the Derby trip. He looked still quite a bit keen and raw at various stages of the race.

Certainly he didn’t enjoy the idiosyncrasies of Epsom. He also had mitigating factors in the home straight for not finishing closer.

Sprewell found himself short of room at a crucial stage of the race over 2.5f out. He was ever so slightly hampered in the preceding furlong as well.

Wen he tried to go through a gap, splitting the middle of two rivals, he became severely unbalanced. It was impressive and the sign of serious talent that he found his momentum quickly back before his stamina ran out in the final furlong, though he still finished with the 4th fasted final furlong split, and 5th best over the last three furlongs, despite all the trouble.

The galloping Curragh should suit a lot more, so should the less fast ground. He may be ridden with a bit more restraint as well, and then slowly easing into contention. Whether he truly gets home over the Derby trip, up the hill, remains to be seen.

My feeling is 10 furlongs may turn out to be the optimum. On the other hand, in the Derby trial, on heavy ground, he was gaining the further they went in the closing stages.

The truth is most likely, Sprewell will find Auguste Rodin too good. At the given prices, I feel it’s worth to back Jessica Harrington’s horse, though, as there are legitimate reasons to believe he can get a whole lot closer. And this is racing, things can happen.

10ts win – Sprewell @ 9/1

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers 2023: #4

1 Comment

A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous eyecatchers here.

Lil Guff
22/05/23 – 5.00 Windsor:

Settled in rear against the inside rail, before gradually moving over to the other side, travelling well, but not getting a run through over one furlong out, when she tried to progress on the widest outside, with a shifting rival not helping to get clear passage there either.

Finished a fine 3rd. Fast ground, minimum trip not ideal. All best career performances over 6 furlongs, and enjoys less lively ground too. Down to a good mark, won off 76 and 82 last summer.

A 76 speed rating here and 79 speed rating in April suggest she’s in the same form now. Ideally want to see her up in trip, though.

Race Replay

Good Earth
22/05/23 – 4.30 Redcar:

Travelled really well in his group. Fine progress from halfway through and won his group comfortably. Couldn’t catch the winner who travelled alone on the far side.

Ran the best finishing speed. Clearly in good form and on solid mark off 80 having ran to 80 and 83 speed rating last year. Better over 6f on fast ground. Didn’t have that yet this year.

Race Replay

Albegone
22/05/23 – 2.35 Carlisle:

Set hot pace from the front and travelled strongly until getting quite tired from over 1f out to finish 4th eventually as he’s getting swamped late. Should be good form.

Down to fine mark. In good form. Best with ease in the ground, hence this run warrants an upgrade, but is competitive on fast too, and continues to drop a seriously intriguing mark in any case.

Race Replay

Fiftyshadesofred
23/05/23 – 8.30 Ayr:

Sluggish start, recovered and went forward to lead at a red hot pace. Found plenty under pressure and only late beaten by two from off the pace.

Good speed rating, which is believable. Ran to near similar speed rating a month earlier on the All-Weather. Definitely in good form but has issues and the hood didn’t seem to help. Would stay a mile if he could settle.

Jury is out how much he’s got in hand these days, but worth another try over 7 furlongs as he has been dropped 2lb by the handicapper for this fine effort.

Race Replay

Mr Beaufort
24/05/23 – 4.30 Ayr:

Pushed a hot pace from the front as part of a duo. Kept fighting well to the line under pressure and nearly held on fending off all challengers bar the winner who came from off the pace.

Huge run. 1st tongue tie, responded well here as well for the decent ground. Deserves a chance in these circumstances again. Won off 73 last autumn in fine style and achieved 77 speed rating.

Was disappointing next time. However was a drifter on the day in the betting, never seemed to travel too well and maybe just doesn’t like ground that fast.

Race Replay

Jojo Rabbit
24/05/23 – 4.30 Ayr:

Pushed a hot pace from the front with Mr Beaufort. Didn’t last quite as long but still showed a good attitude here. Strong form most likely.

Ran twice to higher speed ratings than his current 75 mark. Flexible regarding ground but decent to fast ground ideal over the minimum trip.

Race Replay

The Waiting Game
25/05/23 – 5.12 Catterick:

Caught seriously wide from #14 draw. Did a lot to cross over and get into a position where she tracked the hot pace. Some progress in the home straight before getting tired and also hampered 1f out.

Ran better than bare form lto on Handicap debut as well. Not ridden with intend to obtain best result last two times. The game is in the name…. down to 50 now interesting, if handbrake is off, especially with any support in the betting.

Race Replay

Lulworth Cove
25/05/23 – 3.30 Haydock:

Travelled like a dream in midfield, well covered. Came through strongly, hard on the bridle, going through a gap over 2 furlongs out. Was eventually outkicked and not had the speed to go with the winner but ran on well.

Has the pedigree to improve beyond six furlongs. Will be of serious interest up in trip if she can settle. Has won and ran well over sprint trips already. The way she travelles suggests there’s talent better than a 78 OR.

Race Replay

Griggy
26/05/23 – 4.30 Bath:

Forced to settle off the pace the way the race developed. Was going well but had to wait for room as no gap opened late. Finished best in the final furlong.

Clear return to form after some lesser efforts on the All-Weather. Did well on the sand during winter, though. Down to sexy mark and not out of it on turf either, despite 0/5 record. Never expected in those runs but clearly handles fast ground.

Race Replay

Half Nutz
26/05/23 – 7.00 Curragh:

Quickly restraint in rear of the field against the inside rail. Was going pretty well but progress stopped as he was stuck behind a wall of horses, short of room and hampered from two furlongs until late before in the clear inside the final furlong and finished nicely.

Only slowly drops in the mark. Effective over a variety of sprint trips and acts on nearly all ground. Not tremendously well-handicapped but placed off higher and may not be far off a big run if allowed to run on merit.

Race Replay

Vegas Jack
26/05/23 – 5.00 Haydock:

Swerved to his left out of the gate then settled in midfield. Travelled strongly on the bridle over 2f out behind horses but had to wait for room and switch to the inside for a run. Finished best.

Started the first two furlongs & finished the final furlong faster than the the first two home (fastest final furlong). May not truly stay 1m and would ideally drop to 7f. Lightly raced, good speed rating here as well.

Race Replay

Canute
27/05/23 – 4.15 Curragh:

Tracked the pace against the inside rail for most of the race until the two groups merged. He found himself shot of room multiple times and only late was able to get properly into the clear to finish strongly.

Strong form. Ran to 80 speed rating. Seemed to enjoy the decent ground and has responded for blinkers the last two. Showed promise as a juvenile. Clearly better than what he has shown up to now.

If he’s kept in handicap company he’ll be well-handicapped. Move up in trip is certainly preferable.

Race Replay

Farnborough:
27/05/23 – 4.15 Curragh:

Travelled in midfield, not going smoothly, niggled along, possibly found the pace over 7f on fastish ground too hot. Kept going well, though. Not clear run over 2f out and slightly hampered over 1f out.

Handicap debut and should be better than this. Decent speed rating. Should move up in trip again and dangerous off 87 on decent ground.

Race Replay

Bodorgan
27/05/23 – 2.25 Haydock:

His chances were compromised from the wide draw. He didn’t get in to find cover and as a consequence always travelled three wide, mostly without cover, off the pace. Travelled well and made good progress from over 3f out before getting tired in the final furlong.

May not quite stay a mile. 7f most likely ideal. Impressive win as a juvenile. High enough mark but deserves chance over 7f. He usually can go forward. Deserves chance in easier race.

Race Replay

Happy Romance
27/05/23 – 3.30 Haydock:

Huge disadvantage the low draw that day. In rear early on, before excellent progress from three furlong out on the far side. Did well to run so well for so long.

Better over 6f, ideally with decent to fast ground. One who needs things to fall right but ran solid last season still and could be underestimated in the right race.

Race Replay

De Bruyne
27/05/23 – 4.10 Haydock:

Widest draw away from the inside rail huge disadvantage. Bumped after the start. Was going okay but short of room over 2f out. Disaster run. Ran on well prior on his handicap debut as well.

Could be better than this. May prefer ease in the ground and/or could enjoy an additional furlong as he doesn’t seem to have the speed for fast 6f. Down to 72 intriguing.

Race Replay

Roman Dragon
27/05/23 – 4.45 Haydock:

Grabbed the lead, set solid pace, travelled strongly to 2f marker. Fought gamely but empty half a furlong from home.

Maybe doesn’t quite get 7f. All wins over 6f. Down to 80 could be dangerous if he drops down in trip again. Ran last year twice 82+ speed ratings.

Race Replay

Cairo
27/05/23 – 3.40 Curragh:

Off to a good start, tracked pace keenly early on. Travelled well enough before he became a bit flat footed over 2 furlongs out as the sedate pace increased. Lost ground but stamina kicked in and he flew home the final furlong.

Could enjoy moving up in trip if the pace is solid. Smart prospect and may be underestimated because his profile isn’t that sexy, especially after his Dubai flop.

Race Replay

Batchelor Boy
30/05/23 – 4.10 Brighton:

Flew down the first half of the race, was over a full second faster to the 3f marker than the eventual winner. Gradually tired but was game to the line.

Bumped into a well-handicapped one on seasonal reappearance lto. Can get home but more often than not 7f is a stretch, probably best over 6f. down to solid mark and clearly in form a pound below his last winning mark.

Race Replay

Thegreatestshowman
30/05/23 – 8.45 Lingfield:

Moved quickly forward from wider than ideal draw and travelled very wide before moving across to lead. Was going well for long and showed good attitude late as well.

Best over 5f. Down to intriguing mark. Ran well over minimum trip on fast ground last year. Didn’t get the best of luck on the AW lately but finished well, especially last time at Southwell.

Race Replay

Shine’s Ambition
30/05/23 4.20 Redcar:

Quick start, led from the front as part of duo. Travelled strongly approaching 2f out before he came under severe pressure. beaten by winner from off the pace.

Still a maiden but ran twice 62+ speed ratings. may not stay 7f unless gifted a soft lead. drop to 6f really interesting off career-lowest mark.

Race Replay

Antagonize
30/05/23 – 4.55 Redcar:

Set off very fast, going sprinter pace the first few furlongs, as part of a duo. Kept going well, still ahead 1f out, swamped late. huge run and return to form. down to sexy mark, judged on last season.

Should be strong form. Winner was well-handicapped. Would be most interesting for drop to 7f, even though he stays further, a mile with little pace competition could also be interesting.

Race Replay

Giant
01/06/23 – 4.30 Yarmouth:

Right up with the pace, lead early then chased it. Seemingly going backwards from 2f out but kept on well. Bumped slightly over 1f out and squeezed. Hot race and strong form most likely.

Should find an easier one and can win and may improve with experience still. May also be able to drop to 6f.

Race Replay

Cubanista
01/06/23 – 5.00 Yarmouth:

Set strong pace from the front. Had the field on the stretch halfway out. Kicked clear and only late beaten by very well-handicapped horse.

May go up a couple of pounds but ran 66 speed rating here and 67 in the past. Clearly best on decent ground, and could go well in the right race of revised mark still in right conditions.

Race Replay

Eagle Day
02/06/23 – 5.05 Doncaster:

Bumped at the start, settled in rear, made some good progress travelling well from over 3f out on the outside of the field. Impeded 2f out, ran home solid enough.

Looks a big horse. May needed the run still. Still lightly raced, handicap debut and worth to watch out for over 7f-1m on decent ground. Full-sister achieved nothing, so not too many chances given.

Race Replay

Stalingrad
02/06/23 – 9.00 Catterick:

Dwelt, keen in rear, seemed difficult to steer and went very wide. great progress and finished second on the line despite jockey tried to pull up early.

Dropped another couple of pounds in the meantime. Run better last few runs than bare form. Still a maiden but could cherry ripe potentially. Entry next week at Haydock intriguing.

Race Replay

Nibras Rainbow
03/06/23 – 7.10 Lingfield:

Dwelt from wide draw, rushed forward on outside before crossing over to lead the field. Was going well and seriously gutsy to stay in front for as long as he did.

Career best speed rating. clearly back in form. Not on to trust to follow-up, but worth to check if he drops to 7f again as the additional half furlong may have been a bit too far here.

Race Replay

Essme
03/06/23 – 8.10 Lingfield:

Tracked the pace on far side, quite prominently ridden. Travelled well to 2f out but couldn’t quite keep up the effort in the closing stages. Did best of those low drawn, which is often a disadvantage over this CD.

Career-best on speed ratings, as low as that is. 7f on fast ground ideal and interesting in a similarly poor race when she has a good draw.

Race Replay

Coumshingaun
03/06/23 – 3.00 Listowel:

Dwelt and awkward out of the gate. Settled in midfield, bumped into rival before the first turn. Made progress and found a route through to challenge, though the winner was long gone. Ran on well.

Confirmed lto promise. Down to fine mark. Best on decent ground (ideally no worse than yielding), so could be intriguing on a more conventional track if the dry spell continues. However, can have issues at the gate.

Race Replay

Latin Five
04/06/23 – 5.15 Nottingham:

Travelled seriously well on the far side, covered up behind the pace. Pulled out over 2f out and kicked on well to lead, before late beaten by horse on the stands’ side.

Well handicapped on last-years form. Clearly back in form as he showed some promise at Catterick prior too.

He enjoys decent ground and should remain dangerous even with a small hike in the ratings.

Race Replay

……..

Epsom Derby
03/06/23 – 1.30 Epsom:

A finish dominated by those ridden with restraint. Which was somewhat surprising, because they didn’t go too hard in the first half of the race, with a finishing speed of 116% for the winner, Auguste Rodin (the par for the Derby distance at Epsom is around 111%) not quite telling the tale, perhaps.

King Of Steel raced the closest to the pace from those who made any impact in the closing stages. He travelled pretty well in midfield and kicked on strongly from over 3f out, before being outstayed in the final furlong by the Aiden O’Brien trained colt.

White Birch came from very far back and made great progress on the outside in the home straight. He’s an obvious eyecatcher in that sense. However, there a couple of others who interest me more for the future.

Sprewell is probably the one who left the biggest impression on me. I was certainly not overly keen on him beforehand, but he certainly confirmed his huge talent in the Derby.

It was his fifth career start, but the first time going over the Derby trip. He looked still a bit keen and perhaps green at various stages of the race, hence the fact he finished so well in 4th, without ever appearing with a shot of winning, truth told, is noteworthy.

He found himself short of room at a crucial stage of the race over 2.5f out, though. Subsequently he got badly unbalanced, yet found his momentum quickly again and ran on before his stamina ran out in the final furlong.

Fast ground clearly wasn’t an issue. But the Derby trip may stretch his stamina, especially in a properly run race. However, he has shown his class over 10 furlongs already. That looks his trip. He’s one I’ll track.

Waipiro endured a disaster run. he dwelt, was then caught behind a wall of horses, trailed the field and had to come around wide for a run.

He made excellent progress from 4f out around Tattenham Corner, before his effort fizzled out from 2f out. He probably didn’t get the trip. Though, I thought the confirmed the promise he showed at Newmarket and at Lingfield.

Whether he’s a genuine Group 1 horse remains to be seen. He could be underestimated if he drops down to 10 furlongs, though.

Artistic Star ran a race of two halves, so to speak. Initially I was disappointed with his run. I backed him, and thought he would do much better than a 11 lengths beaten 7th place.

However, he ran a race full of promise. After a solid start he didn’t travel well, niggled at various stages. Perhaps inexperience in such a big, tight field was to blame.

Three furlongs from home he was relegated to last even, before the penny seemed to drop and he motored home in the 4rd fastest final 3f split to pass many tired horses.

He’ll have learned plenty and remains at this stage an exciting prospect after two excellent career performances prior where he ran strong speed ratings for an inexperienced horse.

Whether he’s Group 1 class remains to be seen. His siblings were smart horses but not quite top-notchers. He looks to stay the Derby distance, much like they did, though.

Betting

Saturday Selections: 3rd June 2023

Leave a comment

Age Of Sail was a very easy winner on Friday. He always did enough in front, or perhaps only as much as needed, because the rest of the field was kept napping in behind, allowing him an easy lead.

The other two selections from Friday provided a set of mixed emotions: Azaim ran a huge race for 3rd place despite a drift to 28/1 SP. He ran well to the line, and I can take some joy from seeing him outrunning his price. In truth: he was not good enough to win, though.

Capofan was the disappointment of the day. I’d fancy him to go seriously close, despite double-figure odds. But he wasn’t the sharpest away from the gate was beaten at the halfway stage.

All in all, another green day regardless how small the profit. Two days, two winners for June. No complaints.

…….

1.30 Epsom: Group 1 Derby, 1m 4f

A wide open Derby. A puzzle to solve without a “good thing” to back. The Derby this year lends itself for a big price to cause an upset, I feel.

It’s hard to have confidence in the long-time ante-post favourite Auguste Rodin. A classy juvenile, but his poor Guineas performance raises plenty of questions. Sure, he had some excuses that day. Valid ones. But it’s far from an ideal prep.

Military Order is a stronger choice, in my view. He’s got the credentials as a brother of Adayar and he was impressive when he kicked clear in the Derby Trial at Lingfield, albeit on the All-Weather.

But like many in this field today, lingering doubts hang over his suitability for fast ground. The same could be said about Arrest or Sprewell, two who I would find of great interest with any ease in the ground.

White Birch is one who has shown to handle fast ground at York. That forms ties in with The Foxes, the winner of the Dante. Both ran good speed ratings and are prime contenders, if they handle Epsom and the new trip.

The two I feel are severely overpriced in this wide open Derby have their own questions to answer: Waipiro for one – runner-up behind Military Order in the Derby Trial.

He fell away in the final half furlong, but I feel the fact he raced closer to the pace and did more in the fast half of the race could be a fair reason for that. He still ran a superb race.

That performance confirmed his strong Newmarket victory on his seasonal reappearance. He wasn’t expected that day and may have surprised connections, but travelled and kicked on like a colt of significant talent.

He ran to a 97 speed rating at Lingfield, which gives him a fair shot to run well in a Derby. obviously more is needed, and he seems to hit the ground hard as well, so I have questions over his suitability for fast ground.

Whether he stays the trip is another question. He’s a half-brother to one who finished 3rd in a Chester Plate over extended 2 miles. So there’s well grounded hope. In any case, he has talent and his form is good enough to give him a shot at outrunning his odds today.

The other one I’m intrigued about is Artistic Star. He won quite well on his racecourse debut last October. The attitude he showed to keep going all the way to the line was impressive. So was his debut speed rating of 87. Sings of a potentially smart colt.

The notion that is his a smart colt indeed received another boost when he returned at Sandown last month and won going away in the closing stages, answering every call and responding well to pressure. He improved on his debut speed rating also.

He looks like he would definitely enjoy the Derby trip and as a full-brother to two smart ones (both won Group 3) that won over the distance, he shouldn’ have a problem at all.

He’s another one who has doubts over his suitability for fast ground, though. His two career runs came on softish ground. Though, full-sister Forbearance won the Group 3 Royal Staked over 12f on fast ground. His action seems fluid and the knee action isn’t too pronounced.

Clearly he’s been incredibly progressive in his two career runs and deserves a chance to run in a Derby. He can progress again, and if he does act on the ground and track he should be a huge runer.

5pts win – Waipiro @ 37/1
5pts win – Artistic Star @ 18/1

…………..

1.50 Musselburgh: Class 3 Handicap, 7f

Gioia Cieca had a troubled run last time at York in a seriously hot Handicap. He didn’t seem to travel overly well and lost ground, before getting stuck behind horses in the home straight and impeded. He fell away rapidly in the last two furlongs.

There’s a danger that he hasn’t recovered from two big efforts in April as it looked like he found form again after a break, where he was gelded and underwent a wind operation.

I’m prepared to ignore the last effort as it simply didn’t seem to be his day at York. However, judged on the first two efforts this season, over this course and distance at Musselburgh, he should be seriously competitive off a lowered mark.

Back off his break in April Musselburgh, off for 235 days, he caught the eye for the way he finished after a less than ideal way the race developed for him from the start.

He was desperately unlucky next time over the same course and distance and that performances warranted an upgrade as the one before, especially as both runs came on softish ground.

No doubt Gioia Cieca is a better horse on decent ground. His two best career performances can on fast ground over 7 furlongs. Therefore the ground should be ideal here today, in what is a wide open contest

10pts win – Gioia Cieca @ 9/1

…………

4.50 Musselburgh: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Stay Smart could be quite well handicapped today in conditions to suit and a race that looks quite winnable.

He showed a clear return to form last time out at Ayr when he raced from the front and also achieved a good speed rating, the best in over 1.5 years.

That day he moved quickly forward and led the field at a good pace. He travelled well and found plenty for pressure from 2f out. Ultimately he was only beaten inside the final furlong by two ridden with more restraint.

Stay Smart had a tough time since losing his form in early 2022. He changed yards, tumbled down the weights and has been gelded and had a wind operation. He appears to be in good shape now, though, and is dangerous off his current rating.

His best performances on speed ratings are mainly over 6 furlongs, but he won over the minimum trip as well, ideally on fast ground and a fast pace to chase over 5f. That should be the case here. The 3lb of Mark Winn are the cherry on the cake.

10pts win – Stay Smart @ 9/2

……

5.40 Doncaster: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Madame Fenella is a filly in serious form. Her last three runs were strong and the way she finished indicated her day to shine is near.

She caught the eye at Bath on her seasonal debut when she finished best from the back of the field and wide draw. It was awkward start for her, as can be often the case, she also wore a hood to post; she’s tricky as the past tells.

Nonetheless, she travelled well and did seriously well to finish as close as she did from her wide draw. She didn’t have the speed over 5f at Wolverhampton the next time, though it was a fine performance, which she confirmed once more with an eyecatching run at Haydock the last time.

That run is the strongest indication for her wellbeing. It was a deep race, the winner well handicapped, and se didn’t get the clearest of runs, but she finished once again with zest.

The filly had limited opportunities on turf in handicap company. Her Ascot run from last September noteworthy. She’s intriguing as she drops down to class 6 on turf, especially on fast ground over 6 furlongs.

10pts win – Madame Fenella @ 11/2

Betting

Breeders’s Cup Turf 2022 Preview

Leave a comment

8.40 Keeneland (USA): Grade 1; 1m 4f

This renewal of the Breeders’ Cup Turf doesn’t appear to have the same quality as in previous years. As a consequence it’s wide open. A full field, a tight track and likely fast ground will make for an exciting race, though.

Two horses trained by Charlie Appleby head the betting market. Nations Pride is currently favoured – one can see why. The 3-year-old colt enjoyed a highly successful season, winning four races, and lately went back-to-back in Grade 1 company in the US.

Nations Pride only got beaten this year in the Epsom Derby and in the Belmont Derby when an unlucky runner-up . At the same time he clearly proved versatility, a preference for fast ground and the ability to sit handy and quicken nicely when asked to change gear.

Those are all characteristics that do enhance his chances. He’s a fair favourite in my view. But also beatable. Nations Pride is no superstar.

Otherwise he wouldn’t have been running in the US so often this season. This US form isn’t always easy to quantify, but almost never on par with European top-level competition.

Nations Pride’s European form is solid but hard to be too excited about. Also: in six starts outside the US his career-best speed rating is a modest 89 figure, dating back to his sole run at Meydan.

A #7 gate isn’t ideal here. He may have to spend quite a bit of energy if the aim is a prominent racing position. Otherwise he may be too far back in the field. He’s not always a sharp starter, either. It’s a tricky situation for William Buick in the saddle. At 11/4 I give Nations pride a miss.

Stable mate Rebel’s Romance comes here in red hot form. He landed the two most important Group 1 races in Germany lately, doing so in fine style, as he got the better of German Derby winner Samarko along the way – personally I really rate the German colt.

Unbeaten in his last four starts, he stays the trip and is fine on fast ground. However, his career-best on the rating front dates back to last year, at Meydan; how the recent soft ground form from Germany truly translates to Keeneland is a bit of a question mark. I have some doubts.

A year ago Mishriff would likely have been a red hot favourite in this race. This time he’s a 6/1 shot. Unlucky in the Coral Eclipse at the start of his season, he never looked the same horse again.

Drawn in #11, blinkers on for the first time in his career; this me strike as a somewhat desperate move. I struggle to find him attractive in these circumstances.

Broome has a good draw, in comparison. The six-year-old continues to run well at the highest level. He was an impressive winner of the Hardwick Stakes at Royal Ascot, and wasn’t disgraced in the Arc when last seen on unsuitable ground.

He’ll be a solid place chance if he doesn’t miss the break, which he’s now done a couple of times.

It’s difficult for me to properly assess the form of the home squad. The mare War Like Goddess looked pretty good – although, not brilliant – when landing the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic four weeks ago. She’s likely to be up with the pace from the #2 gate. Hence must rate a competitive chance.

Nonetheless, for betting purposes I’ll stick with the horses I know well enough to make a proper assessment.

With that in mind, the one that I was thinking about all week for this race was the other Aiden O’Brien runner, Stone Age. In truth: generally I am not a massive fan of him, opposed him at every opportunity this year.

However, I have come to the conclusion that he’s going to be a huge runner against this opposition in these circumstances, and certainly appears to be significantly overpriced.

Stone Age has a lovely draw to attack the race from. He’s Ryan Moore’s choice, who knows him well. The 3-year-old colt likes to race bang up with the pace, and can also make it all, as often seen this season. From the #3 gate he’ll be right there towards the front of the race.

I’m pretty sure if you sit more than four lengths off the pace with three furlongs to go your chances are doomed in this race. Stone Age will be right in the mix. He’s not the best horse in the race. But he may well be the one most favoured by circumstances.

He’s been to the US twice this year. On both occasions he ran with plenty of credit, as he had to overcome wide draws. Both Saratoga- and Belmont Derby runs can be upgraded. So can be his last two performances at the highest level against top-class opposition in the Irish- and British Champions Stakes.

He led the field in those races, possibly did too much too soon, but wasn’t all that far beaten in the end, in either instance. I believe he will enjoy the better ground at Keeneland – in combination with the track and his draw, it’s a real positive. And this is a much easier race than the rivals he countered the last two times.

Let’s not forget Stone Age was once a highly fancied Derby shot. Obviously, he’s not that good. Certainly I never thought he was. His speed ratings are consistently not good enough to be considered a proper Group 1 horse in Europe, too.

Yet, here I am: strongly fancying Stone Age. He’s got a proper chance for Group 1 glory in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. This race will suit him more than most in the field. He has the stamina, the finishing kick, the draw and won’t mind the ground.

10pts win – Stone Age @ 9/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 15th October 2022

Leave a comment

4.00: Ascot: Group 1 Champions Stakes, 1m 2f

It’s all about Baaeed. Unbeaten in ten career starts, he comes here after that massive performance in the Juddmonte International Stakes. He’s very much expected to win in style this afternoon.

Retirement beckons afterwards, and surely the smartest fillies are waiting for him in the breeding shed next year. That’s for then. It’s a bid for racing greatness here and now.

In truth, though, I have been somewhat reserved in getting overly excited about what Baaeed had done until he demolished a strong field at York in August.

The reason a simple one: I hold topspeed close to my heart as a KPI if it comes to judging race horses. Prior to the Juddmonte, Baaeed’s career-best of 106 was quite good, but far from brilliant – especially given the comparisons to the true greats of the recent past, like his sire Sea The Stars, or Frankel.

Even my beloved Paco Boy achieved much better; yet, I as the most enthusiastic Paco Boy fan in the world, have to admit, he was not one of the greatest the sport had ever seen.

Roll on the 17th August 2022: Juddomonte International Stakes – Baaeed eases into the lead, effortless, floating over the ground, majestically; he quickens in impressive style and slaughters a labouring Mishriff by 6½ lengths.

Nearly as important as the margin of victory: Baaeed achieved a topspeed rating of 124. Finally a superb performance on this measure as well.

Any concerns over the trip were convincingly put to bed. Connections decided against moving up to the Arc distance subsequently, though. Probably a wise decision in hindsight.

Baaeed – a perfect 10 out of 10 – is impossible to oppose today….. or is he? Most likely, I am clearly in the minority: I still question whether he deserves to be called a “true great”. In my view: not yet.

It’s possibly harsh to say he has to prove himself today. Yet, in my eyes he’s got to prove his greatness: a performance similar to York, and I am going to be fully on board.

That says, he faces two real dangers today: the ground and a fresh Adayar.

Softish ground isn’t a big deal, given Baaeed has won in these conditions in the past. However, he never faced a rival as classy as Adayar in these conditions. I firmly believe Baaeed can’t quite produce the same change of gear on this type of ground.

Baaeed is vulnerable: he produced a 94 best topspeed rating on ground when the word soft appeared in the going description. It’s likely he’s a better horse today than the last time he encountered softish ground; nonetheless, it’s a question mark.

That brings me to Adayar. The only serious opposition today. We haven’t seen much of last years Derby and King George hero. You have to worry about his disrupted year.

On the other hand, it gives him the opportunity to arrive fresh, without a hard season in his legs, after a solid, if unspectacular comeback run at Doncaster last month.

If – and it’s a proper if – Adayar is anywhere near as good as he was last season, then he’ll be a formidable danger to Baaeed. Because let’s remember, he produced his two best performances with cut in the ground in the Derby, and subsequently here at Ascot in the King George, then on fast ground. This versatility could be key.

He ran a huge race in the Arc toward the end of last season; one can forgive a subsequent poor run in the Champions Stakes. The drop to 10 furlongs is another question mark I have. On the other hand, given the softish ground, it could prove ideal, especially if William Buick is bold enough to kick on once the field turns for home. Adayar isn’t slow, and one thing is for sure: he will stay all the way to the line.

Tactically it’s going to be intriguing: what’s Crowley’s game plan? From the #1 draw, he may get boxed in, if he doesn’t move forward right away. I doubt he wants to be too aggressive early on, though. That’s a clear danger, especially if the ground takes something out of Baaeed’s turn of foot.

At the given prices, I simply can’t ignore Adayar. I have question marks. But I have them over Baaeed as well. He’ still by far the likeliest winner, mind. And the fan in me wants him to bow out in style. Yet, the punter in me says a fit and happy Adayar has a better than 10% chance to win a third career Group 1 this afternoon.

A shoutout for Royal Champion: a huge price, one who I feel could outrun this price tag (can be backed at 160s on Exchanges). I was hugely impressed with his recent Ayr run. One to keep an eye on for the future, in any case.

10pts win – Adayar @ 9/1

………….

3.50 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Perhaps it’s the end of the road for veteran Dark Shot after a number of recent below par performances; however, he was earlier this season still running to low 70 ratings, with a really strong run only back in July at Goodwood, when a neck beaten runner-up.

He was rated 69 and ran to topspeed 67 that day – a seasonal best on that measure, although it was especially his Doncaster 4th place finish a few weeks earlier that caught my eye.

He couldn’t back up those runs the last three times, but two came at Southwell on the All-Weather. He weakened badly in all three races, though. A worry.

But: Dark Shot won this very same race 12 months ago. He’s on a lower mark, will enjoy the return to soft ground and has a solid draw to attack the race from.

10pts win – Dark Shot @ 15.5

Betting

Saturday Selections: 17th September 2022

Leave a comment

10.45 Aqueduct: Group 3 Jockey Club Derby, 1m 4f

This is a rather poor Group 3 turf race even by US standards, which is the reason why two questionable stayers head the market.

Godolphin’s Nations Pride and Classic Causeway have met twice over shorter middle-distance trips as part of the Caesars Turf Triple Series this season, with an even split of victories.

Nations Pride, as a son of Teofilo, is odds-on and expected to stretch out over 12 furlongs after his recent excellent Saratoga Derby success.

On the ever turning Aqueduct inner turf track on firm ground there is a solid possibility he will do get the trip. He’s not unbeatable, though, his price (possibly) still driven by early season reputation when he was an English Derby contender.

I doubt Classic Causeway will find this race distance wise and tactically difficult. On the other hand the German raider Ardakan is probably underestimated here.

Obviously he won’t lack stamina. In fact he’ll relish going up in distance. He won the Derby Italiano over 1m 3f earlier this year where he showed a lot of guts, and then finished like a train in the German Derby.

Especially the Hamburg performance is noteworthy. This was a pretty good renewal but Ardakan had a troubled day. His wide draw didn’t do him any favours. As a consequence he had tons to do turning for home. I reckon, on another day Ardakan would have gone seriously close.

He was not disgraced when third in the Group 1 Großer Preis von Berlin subsequently. I though the race wasn’t quite ran to his liking, with a somewhat muddling pace. More aggressive tactics would have helped.

The firm ground is a concern today, given he has not encountered it before. In contrast some of his best performances came on much softer. On the other hand he did just fine on genuinely good ground. That’s gives hope.

I do hope Andrasch Starke will move forward, utilizing the stamina this son of Reliable Man clearly possesses, making this race a test of stamina, rather than one of speed.

If he does so, and possibly even can get first run hitting the home straight, Ardakan won’t be stopping anytime soon and could be difficult to get to for the rest in this field, as they stamina may run out.

Btw. this race is usually run at Belmont. Due to building works there this race, as others, have moved to Aqueduct. A few years ago I went there on a trip to New York. It was a cold December day. A bit of snow on the ground and in the air. Racing took place on the inner dirt track.

It was one of the bleakest days I’ve ever spent at a racetrack. Aqueduct is a massive place, but it was so sparsely attended on the day. It felt so empty, nearly ghost like – apart from a bustling Casino attached to the stand. It was a completely different sort of atmosphere to the usually much more colourful and interesting atmosphere encountered in the UK and Ireland.

10pts win – Ardakan @ 7/2

Betting

Sunday Selections: 31st July 2022

Leave a comment

1.20 Munich: Group 1 Grosser Dallmayr-Preis, 1m 2f

Intriguing Group 1 action in Germany today as we see the return of Derby hero Sammarco.

As tight as the outcome of the Derby was, I always felt he was the best horse on the day. I am a huge fan of this son of Camelot and backed him to win at Hamburg.

The step up in trip was clearly in his favour, and I maintain that – if connections would go down the route – he could have a legitimate shot in an Arc this year.

Saying that, dropping in distance to 10 furlongs does the opposite to my excitement about Sammarco’s chances – at least today. This doesn’t look the deepest Group 1 and class may prevail, yet the drop in distance doesn’t do him any favours I reckon.

It makes perfect sense to get a Group 1 over 10 furlongs on board for a future stallion career. He probably find many better opportunities than this. Though, simply from a betting perspective I can’t back him today.

The French mare Ebaiyra is the favourite and quite a short price. She sets a very good standard thanks to her close 3rd place in the Dahlia Stakes back in May. She has tons of strong form in Group races to her name, although winning at the top level has eluded her so far.

Today looks an ideal opportunity to rectify this. The good to soft ground suits, the trip fine and she comes here in fine form after a recent Listed success at Chantilly that will put her spot on.

I still think she’s a little bit too short in the betting. Clearly a consistent mare, she’s no superstar and is potentially vulnerable to an improving sort.

The Andreas Schütz trained Dawn Intello is another well-seasoned performer at Group level. Consistent and solid are words to describe him. If the market principles falter he’ll be bang there, though he always looked a bit short of class to land a major one.

Last years fine Unio-Rennen winner Best Of Lips doesn’t appear to be quite the same horse this season. Rubaiyat may not quite stay 10 furlongs well enough against this strong level of opposition. Amazing Grace will only feature if they go a crazy pace.

Leaves Andreas’s Wöhler’s Queroyal, who fits the bill of a possible improver. The 3-year- old colt is still lightly raced and unexposed over ten furlongs. After a light juvenile campaign he won a 7.5f contest at Mülheim on seasonal reappearance before stepping up significantly in distance when landing the Derby-Trial at Baden-Baden in convincing fashion.

He kicked on as the field entered the home turn and never looked back, always holding, seemingly a shade cosily, the opposition. Connections were not surprised afterwards, saying they thought he’d be a smart prospect.

Although not the likeliest to stay the Derby trip, Queroyal was supplemented for the Hamburg Classic. He travelled strongly for a long time that day, but from a high draw he was forced to wide for the entirety of the race and travelled significantly farther than Sammarco, who had a perfect trip on the inside in contrast.

Queroyal flattened out in the final two furlongs, hanging badly in the home straight and eventually wandering around, clearly at the limit of his stamina. Nonetheless he was only 3 lengths beaten in the end.

The drop in trip is key today. Whether he is truly a Group 1 horse remains to be seen. The Derby-Trial form hasn’t worked out particularly well. But he looked a class above the opposition in any case and should be capable of improvement for his sixth career start and only second attempt over 10 furlongs. In my book he is significantly overpriced in this field.

A live stream for Munich can be found on Youtube.

10pts win – Queroyal @ 12/1

Betting

German Derby 2022 Preview

1 Comment

2.45 Hamburg: Group 1 German Derby, 1m 4f

The 2022 edition of the German Derby looks an excellent renewal on paper. As German horses have outran their odds on the international stage for a number of years, there is no secret in saying today could be a pointer towards a future Arc winner.

It’s even more exciting as smart filly Wagnis takes on the colts. She was a sensational winner of the Diane Trial over 10 furlongs at Hamburg four weeks ago. She has the assistance of Holly Doyle today. That shows clear intent as does the fact connections go for the Derby.

The way she won the Group 3 Diane Trial was seriously impressive. She produced a lovely turn of foot to come from the back of the field. She is bred to stay the Derby trip and will be a big runner, if she can get a run.

Drawn in #20 is a huge issue at the tight, turning Hamburg course, though. She will have to come from a long way back and that is a tough assignment.

Talking intent, perhaps even more so represents the booking Frankie Dettori. Schlenderhan has been confident So Moonstruck is the real deal for a while and having the big race jockey in the saddle can only be a positive.

He’s drawn in #10. That’s a workable gate, with So Moonstruck expected to go forward. He’ll be in a good position turning for home and is likely to improve from his recent runner-up effort in the Derby Trial at Cologne, should get the trip and should enjoy the decent ground.

The son of former German Derby winner Sea The Moon has been beaten twice this season already, though, albeit on softish ground. He’s one for the shortlist but I struggle to see why he’s the favourite, personally.

Slightly under the radar flies Bavarian Classic winner Lavello. He won handsomely at Munich and was a good third in the Group 2 Prix Hocquart at Longchamp back in May.

He is another one you would think will improve for the trip as a son of Zarak and out of a Montjou mare, plus possibly will enjoy the better ground as well. He’s got a good draw and looks overpriced.

Ardakan is a multiple Group winner already. He landed the Derby Italiano when last seen in May. He showed serious guts and just got there in the nick of time over the 11 furlongs contest.

He is all stamina, not unusual for a German horse, and will love the additional furlong today. Drawn wide isn’t ideal but expect him to close down the leaders coming with a late charge.

Assistent from gate #1 is a compelling each-way shot with Cieren Fallon in the saddle. A listed winner at Hannover over 12 furlongs, he’s is sure to appreciate the trip and has proven to act on decent ground.

Richard Kingscote makes the trip to Hamburg to ride German 1.000 Guineas runner-up Mylady. She has a good draw but may struggle to see out the Derby distance.

The only German female jockey Sybille Vogt in the Derby sits on a live chance with recent Listed winner Nerik, a son of Epsom Derby winner Ruler Of The World, also bred to get the trip and with untapped potential.

German top jockey Eddie Pedroza has the ride on Queroyal, a winner of a Derby Trial at Baden. 10 furlongs may be more his trip, but he can’t be underestimated if he stays.

That brings me to the one I fancied for a while for the German Derby: Sammarco. This lightly raced son of Camelot was learning on the job in all his three lifetime runs. He looked raw and green but improving all the time.

Only one start as a juvenile, he won over 7.5 furlongs. He made his three-year-old debut in the hot Bavarian Classic when things didn’t go his way. He caught the eye with an impressive late finish as a runner-up behind Lavello.

Next stop was the Derby Trial at Munich. he battled it out with So Moonstruck, who got first run. Sammarco found plenty and seemed to relish the fight in the closing stages to win by a head.

He clearly is progressive, has tons of untapped potential, will stay the trip, can go forward from his low draw to be right where you want to be at Hamburg when turning for home and looks potentially the real deal.

This 2022 edition of the German Derby is clearly a highly competitive one. Nonetheless, Sammarco is the one I am siding with at a bigger price than I would have anticipated today.

10pts win – Sammarco @ 11/2