Tag Archives: Selection

Wednesday Selections: November, 28th 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

6.45 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Second start for new trainer Robert Cowell, Becker is an interesting candidate after a fair effort in what was also his first run after a summer break.

The son of Delegator ran pretty well earlier this year, winning twice on the All-Weather and backing up those performances with fair efforts subsequently. Despite that he drops down to a handy mark again as the handicapper gives him a chance, or so it seems.

Becker was a winner off 69 and 73 over 5f at Kempton and Chelmsford in the first half of the year, so having the opportunity to race off 71 now could be dangerous, even more so as those runs held up well form wise.

Selection:
10pts win – Becker @ 11/1 MB 

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Tuesday Selection: November, 27th 2018

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1.40 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Seven-year-old Coiste Bodhar appears to be a superbly well handicapped individual, if he could reclaim some of his better form. Dropping below 50, the last time he did that he was a winner at this very same venue.

In fact Coiste Bodhar loves the Southwell fibresand. A five-times course winner and a three-times course- and distance winner, he’s done so off marks ranging from 49 to 60. Now down to a mark off 48, with the added benefit of a solid 5lb claimer in the saddle, looks nearly too good to be true.

He was disappointing in his last two runs, most recently over CD, certainly. Though, still back in October he was a close third in a pretty decent Nottingham Handicap; so, it appears that on his day Coiste Bodhar can still run really well.

It’s interesting that he has an entry for Friday here as well – more often than not that suggests, particularly with these type of horses fallen so low, that good back-to-back efforts are hoped for by connections.

On the negative: Coiste Bodhar didn’t looked like a horse in splendid form a fortnight ago, but then, the 3lb drop in the mark, the eye-catching jockey booking and multiple entries – I’m happy to give this boy a big chance.

Selection:
10pts win – Coiste Bodhar @ 15/2 PP

Saturday Selections: November, 24th 2018

Wet Dundalk Polytrack

12.50 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Despite a winless record of 0 for 15, Jeopardy John dropps to an intriguing mark here. This is a competitive race, so a tough assignment on that front, but off 59, judged by past performances, this 3yo gelding has a shout.

He was placed off 69 in the past, and on turf off 71 earlier this year. He also ran to TS rating of 63 and 64 on turf and AW. A recent 3rd place finish at Kempton was a solid performance, suggesting he isn’t too far away from going really close.

Another pound off the mark today and a step up to 7f – a trip that should be close to his optimum on pedigree.

Selection:
10pts win – Jeopardy John @ 17/1 MB

…..

2.00 Lingfield: Novice Stakes, 6f

The odds-on favourite looks to have a lot going for herself: an impressive winner on debut, she will be hard to beat. However, time wise she didn’t do a lot that day and as we head into winter, fillies are generally vulnerable.

Newcomer No Nonsense is out of a juvenile A–Weather winner and has a good draw to play with on debut. Gerald Mosse is unlikely to come to Lingfield for a nice day out with the family on what is his sole ride.

Mosse and Elsworth have a 3 for 5 record on the All-Weather this season – so you bet the colt is ready to go on day on day.

Selection:
10pts win – No Nonsense @ 12/1 MB

Friday Selection: November, 23rd 2018

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8.45 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

Rossa Ryan doesn’t have too many rides at the moment, nonetheless it looks significant the jockey comes to Kempton for this one ride of Richard Hannon’s Sotomayor: hockey and trainer enjoy quite a successful partnership over the last two years.

The three-year old colt Sotomayor has his fair share of issues as the amount of headgear and a wind op shows. He’s second up from a break and the surgery, so he may be better for this most recent run over CD when – albeit in a hot race – well beaten.

Sotomayor is a distance winner off a pound higher than his current handicap mark – he also ran to some significant time speed ratings, including a 74 earlier this year.

Whether he can find back to this form and getting the wind done has any positive impact remains to be seen. It’s worth a nibble for me, with this jockey booking, anyway.

Selection:
10pts win – Sotomayor @ 25/1 PP

Thursday Selections: November, 15th 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

That’s the way I like it – a much needed 20/1 winner in Iley Boy tonight. A superb ride by Joey Haynes, who certainly made his only ride on the card count!

His mount didn’t seem to travel overly well early on, particularly after being hampered soon after the the start. He was well off the pace turning for home but was cruising hard on the bridle then and found the gaps when needed. The question “Is today the day to let Iley Boy loose?” was firmly answered!

……

12.10 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1 mile

This looks a rather competitive affair for this type of low grade race. That makes it difficult to assess. The same goes if it comes to get a clear grip on the horse I fancy quite a bit actually: Sooqaan.

Reasons why I like this lad allot are plenty; a simple reason why I’m wondering is: there is fair chance this isn’t the race to let the handbreak off. 

Sooqaan is handicapped to win on his best form. He won off 64 over course and distance earlier this year. However, he was on a roll at that time, completing a hat-trick, kicking it off wit a CD success of a mark of 54. So I can see why connections would want to lower his current rating a bit, still.

On the other hand Sooqaan could find an excellent chance to score, despite the competitive nature of the race. 

The fact that is: in class 6 over this course and distance he is 4 from 4! So, it looks significant that he drops down to this grade for the first time since he last win, coming back the his happy hunting ground all the while. If the mark should be run down further, surely a spin around Chelmsford or similar would do? 

Small bonus: Sooqaan has an excellent draw to attack the race. So weighing it all up, at given prices I am happy to roll the dice! 

Selection:
10pts win – Sooqaan @ 8/1 PP

……….

3.20 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

Always risky to punt a Southwell virgin – nonetheless, three-year-old Kabrit is an interesting contender here thanks to a featherweight I feel. He’s shown a bit of promise on turf this year when placed on three occasions in races that have had their form franked since then.

He comes here after a poor showing in his final turf start last month; however it was off a break and first time gelded. You’d hope he can come on for the run. 

Whether Kabrit truly stays the trip, particularly on the fibresand remains to be seen – Mr. Lee in the saddle seems a positive, given his excellent record when riding for Andre Balding.

Selection:
10pts win – Kabrit @ 9/1 PP

Tuesday Selections: November, 13th 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

6.45 Chelmsford: Class 7 Handicap, 1m 5½f

It could be a tip in itself that Kieran Shoemark comes here for only one ride on the card. He rides Rip Van Winkle son Lumen. The gelding hasn’t shown anything in four lifetime starts but off a super low weight and opening mark on handicap debut in this poor race he looks one of the more likely contenders.

Certainly there could be a bit of improvement, the dam has produced a solid half-brother already; a good draw will a big help in order to settle in a fine spot today also.

Interestingly Lumen has another entry on the weekend at Lingfield in better grade. I take this as a positive nod toward his chances today, as he may be able to run again under a penalty, if successful today.

Selection:
10pts win – Lumen @ 13/2 MB

Monday Selections: November, 12th 2018

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1.05 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 5 furlongs

Low draw is usually preferred here; from those individuals only Optimickstickhill makes appeal, though the minimum trip might be too sharp.

Despite drawn much wider than usual, Fareeq looks well handicapped on his return to Southwell second up from a break. He missed the break on his return at Chelmsford, so that run off  145-day lay-off is excused.

He finished a creditable CD runner-up when last seen here; the form looks strong as the winner went on to win two more races. That effort came off a 4lb higher mark than Fareeq’s last winning mark as he landed a CD race off 60 back in April.

Down in class 6, over a seemingly perfect course and distance off mark he looks well capable of – it should give Fareeq a good chance to overcome the disadvantage of the wide draw in a poor race.

Selection:
10pts win – Fareeq @ 5/1 WH

…..

2.45 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6 furlongs

The grey veteran Lucky Beggar has been in fair form on turf in recent weeks, without threatening the judge, though, to be fair. However a return to Southwell’s fibresrand over the 6f trip is quite interesting, as it comes with a chunky drop in the mark and drop in class as well.

When last seen over this CD back in August – only his second ever Southwell start, despite a less than ideal start, he ran on very strongly from the middle of the pack in a very hot race, finishing a clear third. The winner to some extend, the runner-up very much so, having franked the form in the meantime.

Lucky Beggar’s effort that day came in higher grade and off a 7lb higher mark than his current one. He will be in with a big shout here, if he can overcome the draw. No doubt, drawn in 11 isn’t ideal; but then that is also reflected in the price, which still undervalues the eight-year old’s chances.

Selection:
10pts win – Lucky Beggar @ 7/1 Sky