Tag Archives: Turf

Saturday Selections: June, 16th 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

3.45 Chester: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

Stall 2 at Chester over the minimum trip often leads to the golden highway. So it is a significant boost for Dahik to have start from the top draw. The gelding never lived up to the promise he showed when winning a Novice contest at Bath last year and has moved yards in the meantime.

You can’t say Dahik set the world alight in two starts for new trainer Michael Easterby, although it was at least a fair comeback run on his seasonal debut at Nottingham in early May.

Last time in a hot class 2 handicap he was out of his depth. Dropping back into class 4 while also relieved of a few more pounds off his handicap mark could help him to be competitive here in this race, though.

Ground should suit – his best performances cam on a fast surface. A low weight, a lowly mark off 76 and an eye-catching jockey booking as Phillip Makin rides Chester incredibly well in combination with the excellent draw might be enough to see Dahik run a massive race.

Selection: 
10pts win – Dahik @ 14/1 Sky

Friday Selections: June, 15th 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

4.50 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 10f

Bottom weight Kabrit looks to have got in lightly here. He’s got three runs under his belt, the two this season didn’t look to shabby. He was chasing a strong pace on either occasion, proving still a bit raw and green.

Likely to improve in handicaps, he remains with potential particularly of a lowly 65 handicap mark. I feel this opening rating does underestimate the ability of this strong Mastercraftsman colt.

Selection:
10pts win – Babrit @ 11/2 GB

……

7.30 Chepstow: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Top weight Operative has been labeled an “unreliable type” by Timeform. I disagree. Operative has been half of his life starts in the money – 11 of 22 starts. That isn’t unreliable. That is rather reliable, in my book.

Truth is, the five-year old gelding’s form this year reads unreliable: 10-2-7, though it isn’t so much taken circumstances into account.

Operative had no chance on his seasonal debut at Nottingham; hampered at the start, wall of horses in front, hampered in the final furlong, yet wasn’t far away in the end. He ran a strong race finishing second subsequently here at Chepstow over 6f, bumping into a tremendously well handicapped winner.

It’s true, Operative hasn’t done anything over 7f yet. He was again well beaten two weeks ago over CD. That says he did so on rain softened ground. His other two starts over this trip give indication it may be too far. I still remain optimistic, given fast ground today can be a help and he looked like running on well on his penultimate start over a furlong shorter.

Operative also drops down to class 5 for the first time this season. He ran well in a better grade twice this season – this today is a much easier assignment. He may not see out the trip, and we can put that to bed at the end of this day; until then I believe firmly that Operative is tremendously overpriced.

Selection:
10pts win – Operative @ 14/1 PP

Friday Selections: June, 8th 2018

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3.40 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 10f

Top weight Palawan hasn’t fired in most of his last runs, ever since a strong runner-up performance in June of mark off 84 in a strong class 3 Handicap at Bath things didn’t work out for him. the winter. As a consequence he slipped dramatically in the mark.

A brief hint of return to form in February at Kempton, when coming agonizingly close a break a 2.5-year winless streak. Three poor runs later he moves yards, now going to post in the care of Jonathan Portman for the very first time.

One needs to put faith in the change of scenery helping Palawan to be revitalized. He also tries the 10f trip for only the second time in his career. Not unlikely on pedigree, particularly on fast ground.

On his best Palawan is obviously a main danger off 67, whether he still wants it remains to be seen. It’s a poor enough contest where I feel it’s worth a punt.

Selection:
10pts win – Palawan @ 11/1 PP

……

4.50 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Novice Stakes, 8.5f

I don’t see why – with all we know at this point in time – there should be such a big difference in the betting between Move Swiftly and Elegiac. My preference is for the latter one.

A highly promising colt, who ran well on debut over 10f in a good race, followed-up at Newcastle dropping to a mile in excellent style.

This son of Farhh is open to plenty of progress and with Franny Norton retaining the ride with a good draw to go forward from, despite carrying a penalty, I feel Elegiac is a massive runner today.

Selection:
10pts win – Elegiac @ 9/2 PP

Thursday Selections: May, 31st 2018

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3.30 Hamilton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 3f

Small but competitive race. Favourite Jabber looks a fine chance after a recent Chester win, however off 6lb higher he appears vulnerable all the same.

I really like the chance of Mutadaffeq, in contrast. You can easily cross a line through his two 2018 runs. In big fields things worked very much against him on both occasions.

Thanks to that he drops down to a tasty mark off 84 – he won off 2lb higher last August. A smaller field, with less chance for interference where he might even can dominate if he wishes to go forward – when he won a 5-runner class 3 Handicap at Pontefract last year he made all.

Mutadaffeq has ran to a time speed rating of 85 as well as numerous 85+ RPR’s in the past, so it’s fair to assume if he is anywhere near his best, with conditions likely to suit, he should go very close today.

Selection:
10pts win – Mutadaffeq @ 5/1 GB

Monday Selection: May, 21st 2018

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+8.00 Leicester: Class 5 Fillies’ Handicap, 7f

Big field, highly competitive – normally not a race I would be particularly drawn to. Says, Amanda Perrett’s filly Flirtare catches my eye in many different ways.

The Oasis Dream daughter tries the flush green turf for the first time after showing promise on the All-Weather in four starts.

She finished middle of the pack on handicap debut at Kempton last months, however she came across to challenge the lead from a wide draw early on and travelled always wide. The fact she actually led briefly over a furlong out is credit to her, I feel. She faded away eventually, but this was a promising run.

Two pounds off the mark, now on turf, this lightly raced filly is fitted with first time blinkers ad a hood as well. If that in combination can eke out a little bit of improvement then Flirtare is in with a more than decent shout.

Selection:
10pts win – Flirtare @ 20/1 PP

Sunday Selections: May, 20th 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

2.20 Ripon: Class 6 Handicap, 6 furlongs

Currently trading as favourite, I believe there is good reason to believe indeed, that Sir Derrick can get off the mark today.

The gelding has ran with promise in his two starts this season, now that he’s eligible for a handicap mark. Soft ground was probably not ideal on those occasions and the 7f trip stretched him the last time.

However, as a late May foal he is due to come into his own and looks certain to improve dropped to 6f again now on fast ground. With a small ease in the weights as well, Sir Derrick seems poised for a big run.

Selection:
10pts win – Sir Derrick @ 4/1 PP

Friday Selections: May, 11th 2018

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2.15 Lingfield: Maiden Fillies’ Stakes, 1m 2f

The market principles with form on their side haven’t achieved an awful lot. Twice a runner-up, Cosmic Love sets a fair standard but looks vulnerable enough to be opposed.

The look of Godolphin newcomer Duchess Of Berry appeals to me. She is very well bred, related to some smart individuals and given she was a February foal should be – in theory – forward enough at this stage of the season.

The Appleby yard tends to have their newcomers ready for the first day at school. The record, particularly in spring, is excellent. So it’s easy to take a chance on this filly in a winnable race.

Selection:
10pts win – Duchess Of Berry @ 11/2 Matchbook