Tag Archives: Southwell

Saturday Selection: November, 9th 2019

Wet Dundalk Polytrack

6.40 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Dropping significantly in his handicap mark, with first time visor applied, Ower Fly is an intriguing contender. The 6 furlong trip is certainly no issue, questions are more about the fibresand and whether he still has the appetite to race.

I would argue having been dropped 4lb for the latest Newcastle effort, a fair 5th place where he dwelled yet moved soon to the front, travelled well for long enough and ran on gamely to the line, Ower Fly has been given a significant opportunity by the handicapper.

In act the six-year-old is down a whopping 25 pounds since the start of the year. Which shows he hasn’t been at his best in 2019, and a wind surgery didn’t seem to help either.

So there is significant risk attached to him. Further to this he didn’t seem to start quite as enthusiastically in his latest races, however wasn’t helped at the penultimate race when heavily bumped early on. On the other hand there were glimmers of hope, as the most recent performances showed as did a solid 5th place at Ascot in the summer.

Ower Fly has achieved a topspeed rating of 63+ on 14 occasions throughout his career, on both turf and the All-Weather. With that in mind there clearly is a fair chance that if rejuvinated by the switch to fibresand and visor, he can run a massive race in this poor field.

He can also be beaten soon after the start. A wider than ideal draw, if he dwells again and struggles to take to the surface, he’s gone after two furlongs. I’m prepared to take the risk.

Selection:
10pts win – Ower Fly @ 10/1 MB

Thursday Selections: October, 10th 2019

kempton

7.30 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Lightning Charlie has fallen to a career lowest handicap mark and looks poised for a big run with top jockey Jim Crowley booked for the job.

The 7-year-old isn’t the force of old, but now dropping to class 5, having dropped 15lb in his handicap mark since the beginning of the year, even though he has ran with credit in higher class a number of times this summer, returns to the All-Weather where’s posted six times in his career topspeed ratings of 70 and higher.

There’s still life in Lightning Charlie as he showed back in August at Brigton, when a fair 4th in a decent class 4 contest, not beaten fat that day. The latest Ascot effort in big field can be forgiven.

Selection:
10pts win – Lightning Charlie @ 11/2 MB

……..

7.45 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Hat-trick seeking favourite Queen Of Kalahari should go really well and has a big shout to make it three on the bounce, though from a wide draw he’s one to oppose at short odds.

Much more interesting, enjoying a much kinder draw, suitable to his racing style, is Poeta Brasileiro. He’s ran really well since changing yards to David Brown, in the money the last two times over sprinting trips off a similar mark, having a big chance today, given those last two races he ran to a 62 tospeed rating as well, suggesting he’s certainly weighted to go close today.

Back at Southwell where he’s been placed before over the shorter 5f trip, this is only his third start on the fibresand and that offers a bit of upside. His sire has a super record here, and as Poeta Brasileiro has already proven he can go well here, there’s no worries on that front.

The colt has ran to a career highest 65 topspeed rating on the All-Weather last winter also, suggesting with his current form, current handicap mark and a top draw to leverage he’s a massive chance today.

Seletion:
10pts win – Poeta Brasileiro @ 10/3 MB

Monday Selections: April, 29th 2019

DSC_2290

I said in my preview my hope for Winklemann is that Miss Imogen Mathias won’t fall off. She didn’t. But she also couldn’t have given the poor horse a worse ride. Winklemann finished a close third in the end. So did Roaring Rory, who stayed on from a long way back in his race.

No complaint, though: I knew the dangers of backing a horse in an Amateur race. And maybe it wouldn’t have mattered if a different jockey would have steered Winklemann home. It’s easy to point out a seemingly weak ride while sitting comfortably in the chair myself, of course.

I was massively impressed with Pink Dogwood at Navan today. The ante-post favourite for the Epsom Oaks proved too strong for her rivals in the listed Salsabil Stakes over 10f. She showed a lovely attitude under a hands and heels ride and looks to have wintered well from a physical standpoint as well.

She’s been cut from 6/1 to 7/2 in the meantime. I’m not the man for ante-post wagers these days, so will not touch it. But I think she’ll be hard to beat if getting to Epsom healthy.

On to Monday – there’s plenty of flat action both on the All-Weather as well as on the green lush grass! Still, I’m a little bit surprised to have found nearly two hands full of selections…. whether that’s a good or a bad sign remains to be seen.

…….

2.10 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Smashing Lass is the only winner in this field – a poor line-up with a few unexposed sorts, but generally one where the filly stands out. She won a seller last year and also was a decent runner-up at Newcastle twice.

A recent seasonal reappearance was surely nothing more than a pipe opener and big improvement is expected from that run. She has dropped to a 55 handicap mark, while she already ran to a TS rating of 59 and 54 in the past.

So improvement is possible, also as she was an April foal and may get better with age. First time Southwell is always a risk, but her sire has an excellent fibresand record. Interestingly, it’s Shane Gray’s only ride on the card.

Selection:
10pts win – Smashing Lass @ 9/1 PP

……..

2.20 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

The favourite is clearly opposable given his super skinny price. I’m keen on Rantan, even though the draw may not be an advantage with the pace more drawn toward the other side.

Nonetheless, I feel this lad has been campaigned with this race potentially in mind. He had two pipe openers over the minimum trip. Last time out here at Newcastle he finished quite nicely showing a bit of spark in the closing stages, while it was obvious he needs further.

He drops in class but is stepped up in trip. He slipped to an incredibly dangerous mark as well, judged by last seasons performances in particular.

Selection:
10pts win – Rantan @ 15/1 MB

………

3.45 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 1 mile

Dropping in class here and further down in the ratings, Me Too Nagasaki may finally found a race to fulfill expectations. He was well backed since joining the Stuart Williams yard, and though running with credit most of the time, he never looked like winning.

Surely the now 5-year-old isn’t the force of the past, but down to a mark of 75 he looks very dangerous, particularly down in a class 5 Handicap. It’s his second time on the fibresand – even though well beaten in January, he looked like taking to it until falling away after travelling widest of all throughout in a hot class 3 Handicap coming off a long lay-off.

This here looks a very winnable race – if he can finish off his race. The way he dropped out lately is slightly concerning, in truth. But he’s the class act in this field, so I give Me Too Nagasaki the benefit of the doubt as he is potentially well handicapped.

Selection:
10pts win – Me Too Nagasaki @ 13/2 PP

……….

4.15 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

This is an ultra-competitive race. Margins could be decisive, so being drawn wider than ideal is a negative. Nonetheless I feel Big Brave Bob has a tremendous chance first time out for a new yard if race fit.

It’s likely hell be race fit given Big Brave Bob returns to the place of his biggest- and sole success: the 6f at Southwell. He won here last year in taking style, even if the tight margin tells a different story. He clearly looked like an individual who’d strive on the fibresand.

He followed up with a number of good performances of higher marks in good races – particularly his follow-up effort at Bath is super strong form; but also all his last runs on the AW are solid.

He left the Hannon yard over the winter, and has also dropped down to a mark of 70. With a fair 5lb claimer in the saddle, back on the fibresand, I think there is a good chance Big Brave Bob has too much on his plate for the rest of this field.

Selection:
10pts win – Big Brave Bob @ 6/1 MB

………

4.25 Newcastle: Class 3 Handicap, 1 mile

Ballard Down looks underappreciated in this race. Since changing yards he has ran well on two occasions, particularly an unlucky 3rd place finish behind Mr. Scaramanga rates a strong piece of form.

He’s clearly a tricky sort, but Newcastle’s straight mile suits him. Down to a 91 mark now, I feel he looks poised for a big performance, given there seems to be a good deal of pace in the race as well, to see him coming with a late charge to get his head in front again.

Selection:
10pts win – Ballard Down @ 16/1 PP

……..

4.55 Windsor: Class Handicap, 6f

Kwela was desperately unlucky not to get her head in front when being several times severely  impeded in the closing stages at Lingfield on her seasonal debut recently.

She’s a pound higher today but that won’t make a difference. Back on turf, with fast ground likely to suit well, she can attack from pole position riding the golden highway of Windsor.

Excellent Georgia Dobie keeps the ride; she’s well worth her 7lb claim and I predict we’ll hear a lot of her in the future.

Selection:
10pts win – Kwela @ 5/1 WH

……

6.30 Windsor: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

The favourite Just Brilliant is an intriguing runner here: a lightly raced colt for a good yard and race fit. But he’s a short price for all he has shown to date.

I put trust in Silvestre De Sousa’s mount Allegiant, who hopefully doesn’t lack for fitness either. The gelding is also low mileage, but already won a race: on handicap debut coming off a break at Epsom last autumn. He couldn’t follow on from there  when turned under a penalty soon after, but he seems to be a tricky individual and maybe the race came too soon.

He’s 7lb higher in the mark today, but ran to a TS rating of 69 at Epsom – so, if he can find any bit of improvement for age and the new trip, he could well be a good thing.

Allegiant certainly looks the part. A big, strong gelding with scope. On pedigree the 10f looks a fair possibility, and even though fast ground was cited as a potential reason for his under-performance when last seen, I think it could, in fact should suit.

Selection:
10pts win – Allegiant @ 6/1 MB

……

7.30 Windsor: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 3.5f

Couple of weeks ago I was keen on New Show…. and desperately disappointed with his run. However, it’s too early to give up on him. What applied back then still applies today as reason why he remains an interesting individual:

New Show ran an almighty race in a hot handicap when last seen in 2018. Inexperience cost him dearly that day but to be in it for as long as he was was impressive. That Goodwood race has worked out tremendously well, so, if he can improve as a 4-year-old with age and experience, he could be on a nice mark.

As a late April foal, with low mileage, you do hope there is more to come. H steps up in trip again and tries blinkers for the first time. At the same time, dropping in grade should help as well.

Selection:
10pts win – New Show @ 11/2 Coral

………

7.40 Thirsk: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

It’s fair to say Star Ascending is a better horse on the All-Weather than on turf, an on the synthetics he wasn’t particularly good lately either. On the other hand, back in January he won seemingly with a bit in hand a class 5 handicap over 12f in fine style.

He can race off a 6lb lower mark than he did that day at Wolverhampton. Judged by the past that may not mean all that much, as Star Ascending had plenty of chances on turf and has only one win to his name in 17 attempts.

However, over 12f and on decent ground he had very few opportunities to run, the last one eleven months ago at Doncaster where he finished 5th, albeit a good deal beaten. He ran off 69 that day, and in the context of the form of that particular race, it was probably quite a good performance.

So 5lb lower than when last seen on turf now, a fair 5lb claimer in the saddle as well – even though he’s totally inexperienced at Thirsk, so hopefully this isn’t just a race to gain vital experience, as also trainer Candish hasn’t an overly fruitful record with apprentices.

That’s the clear risk. But if Star Ascending can find back some form and doesn’t miss the kick most importantly, as he sometimes does, he may be able to utilize a good draw (high draws over 12f at Thirsk an advantage) there is a fair chance he can outrun his price tag.

Selection:
10pts win – Star Ascending @ 16/1 MB

Sunday Selections: April, 21st 2019

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

Junoesque (5/1) was punted of the boards last night at Brighton – thankfully she emerged as the winner of the final race on the card – this time, unlike on Friday, it was the ‘lucky last’! That’s been two nice winners this week – all in for a hat-trick?

:::::::::

5.15 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Without a win in 17 starts, Captain Dion may finally found the ideal opportunity to get his head in front again. The grey changed yards earlier this year and ran with plenty of promise on his two starts since returning to the track.

A pipe opener at Newcastle over 7f, followed by a strong 3rd place finish in a competitive Handicap here over course and distance – that piece of form looks particularly strong as it has worked really well already.

It was a first run on Southwell’s fibresand that day, Captain Dion didn’t seem to mind it at all, in fact looks a sort likely to be pretty effective. The handicapper has been lenient, Captain Dion dropped another pound, down to 59. He’s also dropping down in class today.

There may a be a bit of improvement to come for Captain Dion’s second run on fibresand – his sire has quite an excellent record here. The jockey/trainer combo of 3lb laiming Gabriele Malune and Ivan Furtado is a strong one – it’s also Malune’s only ride today.

Selection:
10pts win – Captain Dion @ 6/1 MB

Thursday Selections: February, 21st 2019

DSC_1062

4.10 Southwell: Class 4 Handicap, 6 furlongs

Despite returning from a longer break, top weight Zylan looks an intriguing contender here given his excellent course record. The seven year old is four from five here and two from two over CD.

His last success came last summer of a 3lb lower mark. Effectively 5lb higher today, given the same apprentice is on board and claims two pound less these days. That was a strong effort though, giving the impression Zylan could still have a lot more to offer over CD.

Returning from a break is no red flag at all. His record fresh is quite excellent as he did the last two seasons over the minimum trip here at Southwell, when he won and was a fine runner-up respectively.

Selection:
10pts win – Zylan @ 7/1 MB

……..

5.20 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 5 furlongs

The favourite Gorgeous General looks hard to beat for obvious reasons, but in truth his record over the minimum trip isn’t that impressive to not take him on, particularly with a strong alternative.

Kyllukey has ran well on his return to the track first time out for the Wallis yard. He was fancied that day, so expected to perform. He now returns to Southwell, he’s only had a single start here a few years ago but seemingly took well to the fibresand.

He’s fallen significantly in the ratings over the last while, nonetheless he ran with credit more often than not. A race like this, that could suit, plus the additional aid of a fair 5lb claimer on board, should give him a prime chance today.

Selection:
10pts win – Kyllukey @ 6/1 MB

Thursday Selections: January, 24th 2019

DSC_1062

2.55 Southwell: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 4f

Michael Appleby has a 22% strike rate in handicaps at Southwell with horses running for the first time for him, so that makes High Command an interesting contender.

The latest performances are concerning, though. A long beaten 5/2 four of five in claimer at Wolverhampton is the latest of below-par performances. One has to bank on Appleby’s magic hands.

On the other hand, what also could lead to a change in fortunes is the return to the Southwell fibresand. High Command is 2/2 here, including a CD success and dropped 2lb lelow his last winning mark.

From a good draw, a horse who likes to go forward, he may use his stamina to stretch the field and make use of the good mark, if rejuvenated by the change of yard.

Selection:
10pts win – High Command @ 7/1 MB

…….

6.25 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

New headgear combination for Fink Hill. How that works remains to be seen. He’s drifting in the market, so that’s a negative. He also has an engagement in a couple of days, which is interesting. So is that jockey Charles Bishop comes here for this one ride only, which is a positive.

Since winning a 5f sprint at Southwell in hands of Bishop, Fink Hill has been on a downward curve. A subsequent 6th, 3l beaten at Wolverhampton under a penalty was still a fair effort, but he was a long way down the field the next three times.

A return to this course and distance is interesting: arguably his best career performance came here in a few years ago, when 3rd of a mark of 70, running to a TS rating of 61.

So, dropping down to a mark of 60 over this CD in a weakish class 6 Handicap a return to form isn’t out of question today.

Selection:
10pts win – Fink Hill @ 22/1 MB

Friday Selections: January, 11th 2019

DSC_1062

Finally a winner again after hitting the post a handful of times lately – The Right Choice (11/1) was the right choice indeed! He drew clear in the closing stages to land the 6f sprint after a hectic race that saw him under pressure at the back of the field right from the start.

……

6.45 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 2m ½f

Thresholdofadream looks certainly well in here of a rating of 55 after two highly promising efforts in October and November, her first tries on the All-Weather as well stepping up significantly in trip.

She was arguably unlucky not finish closer over 14f here at Wolverhampton and subsequently she should have won at Lingfield the way she finished, if not for her poor positioning way too far off the pace.

This race is in fact even weaker, so given Thresholdofadream remains unexposed on the AW and the trip as well as being still lightly raced, there is every chance for more natural improvement.

The only issue is the wide draw and her running style, which caused her to get into trouble the last two times. Drawn in 11 may see her confronted with the same sort of scenario. Thankfully top man Joe Fanning is on board.

Selection:
10pts win – Thresholdofadream @ 7/2 MB