Tag Archives: Windsor

Saturday Selections: August, 24th 2019

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5.50 Windsor: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

If you feel the favourite can be beaten here you’re suddenly not with much left. That is an ideal scenario for Iconic Knight, who may look in the grip of the handicapper on first glance, although a second look will reveal an excellent chance.

The 4-year-old gelding finished an excellent runner-up in a big field at York recently. A run to to that sort of form will see him go close. More interested I am in his Goodwood 3rd in June, though. That form worked out tremendously well which gives merit to Iconic Knight’s 80 topspeed finish that day.

He is already a Windsor winner, albeit over 5 furlongs. That piece of form from last year looks strong too. Conditions are fine today. Trip, track, ground – no bother. Given he looks in excellent nick and ran a career best not to far back in a really hot contest provides enough reasons to back Iconic Knight in this race here.

Selection:
10pts win – Iconic Knight @ 13/2 MB

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6.50 Windsor: Group 3 Winter Hill Stakes, 1m 2f

A 104 rated 3-year-old taking on older horses – there is an obvious reason why Queen Power is favoured to land the odds here, given also her Newbury victory is a highly respected piece of form.

However, I have to oppose her here. She’ll be meeting some tough nuts to crack. and Windsor can be a funny track. Also: Queen Power, even though dropping back in trip and class to better ground after a disappointing Ribblesdale Stakes will suit, but what#s really bugging me is the fact she is yet to run particularly fast. She may well have the ability but she hasn’t shown it yet. She will have to against opposition that largely has been running fast in the past.

For that reason the obvious selection can only be Matterhorn. He’ll have his preferred turf conditions today: a course that can favour those who set the pace, fast ground and the 10 furlong trip.

He was disappointing the last two starts in higher grade. Dropping down to Group 3 will help big time. He has proven to be a horse that belongs to this level. He also has ran fast on both All-Weather and turf, judged by topspeed figures.

Selection:
10pts win – Matterhorn @ 4.2/1 MB

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Monday Selections: August, 19th 2019

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6.40 Windsor: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

Harry Hurricane steps back into more suitable territory after being outclassed at Goodwood. Given he had been a non-runner on a vet’s cert and a poor showing at Bath before that he’s got some questions to answer – but the majority of his performances earlier this season have been good and to quite a high standard.

In fact, he achieved twice a topspeed rating of 79+ this season already. So, now down to a mark of 79, with a further 5lb claim of highly useful apprentice Cieren Fallon, he looks ripe for a big run.

Granted, Harry Hurricane isn’t a frequent winner and hasn’t done so since the 2016 season. But I feel this track, his racing style, an uninspiring field or rivals to beat, a supr dangerous handicap mark and a classy apprentice in the saddle are a winning combination, as long as he’s right.

Selection:
10pts win – Harry Hurricane @ 13/2 WH

Monday Selections: August, 5th 2019

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4.00 Ripon: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

having dropped to a dangerously low handicap mark, the first time visored Delph Crescent looks to have found an ideal opportunity to get his name on the scoreboard again.

The 4-year-old ran well of much higher marks earlier this year already, but now down to an official rating of 72 offers a unique opportunity in a race that is wide open and is set to be run in conditions to suit.

Delph Crescent won three times last year, latest successes came off 73 and 78 and he also achieved topspeed rating

won of 73 and 78 3lb claim good form earlier this year visor of 78 and 71 back then. With a fair 3lb claimer in the saddle today he looks rather obviously well handicapped.

Selection:
10pts win – Delph Crescent @ 14/1 MB

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8.30 Windsor: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Look Surprised won this twelve months ago and the mare looks in with an excellent shout this evening again. It’s a poor field she tackles here, while dropping to a very tasty mark, now 2lb lower than when winning it last year.

Her latest showing at Bath is slightly concerning as she was expected to run well, however her other three starts on turf this season where respectable, albeit not particularly good either.

One has to hope a return to Windor, a track Look Surprised has a 50% strike rate, can revive her best form. Certainly she has ran her to career best topspeed ratings of 68 and 64 the last two years.

Selection:
10pts win – Look Surprised @ 6/1 MB

Monday Selections: July, 8th 2019

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7.10 Ripon: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

He looks not the likeliest on recent form, however a wind surgery might do the trick for 3-year-old Fume. A son of Frankel, and a half-brother to solid Mesquite, now down to a rating of 69 in a rather poor contest offers a big opportunity to get off the mark, if the wind OP has helped.

Fume showed promise as a juvenile, particularly on the All-Weather, having beaten only by a neck twice last November of 69 and 72 ratings, also running a topspeed rating of 69.

A fair 3rd place effort in April this year also showed he’s trained on, so the breathing may indeed have been the problem the last twice.

Selection:
10pts win – Fume @ 14/1 MB

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8.50 Windsor: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 3.5f

Small and competitive field but the most upside is with Fearless Warrior I believe. He’s a tricky sort now fitted with blinkers for the first time after three rather disappointing efforts this season.

He should be a sort that’s improving with age as a son of Sea The Stars born in April, so’ll happily give him another chance.

Fearless Warrior is down to a mark of 80 now, but finished last season with a strong runner-up effort at Newmarket running to a topspeed rating of 83. If there is still a bit more to come and the blinkers help to focus, then he should run a huge race today.

Selection:
10pts win – Fearless Warrior @ 7/2 MB

Monday Selections: May, 6th 2019

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3.10 Windsor: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 3.5f

There is little in this field to shout about. Therefore handicap debutant is appealing of bottom weight. The colt had three runs over a mile or slightly further in order to qualify for a handicap mark.

After a third run, incidentally his seasonal reappearance, last month at Newmarket, he starts proper racing life of a 62 rating. High enough for what Tigerskin has achieved to date, but one has to keep in mind handicapping was always always the route he’s go down to, so educational runs where the main aim to date.

He now steps up dramatically in trip, to the sort of distance this colt should be much more home. He isn’t bred too badly actually and looks to have a more than fair chance to get the 1 mile and 3.5f at Windsor, particularly if the ground continues to dry out further.

Open for improvement, racing of a low weight in a weak contest with conditions likely to suit –  Tigerskin looks a good bet at current odds.

Selection:
10pts win – Tigerskin @ 9/1 PP

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3.40 Beverley: Class 5 Handicap, 7.5f

The eight-year-old Abushamah looks a fair favourite and will go close, although his not one I’d trust too much, despite a handy mark. Muatadel will struggle over this extended trip if the rain materialises. Leaves this wide open for anyone to take.

This one could be course and distance scorer Dasheen. He won here of a 4lb higher mark last summer (with 3lb claimer) running close to a career highest reaching a TS rating of 71.

He lost her way a bit since then, so it’s not without risk to back him. But down to a mark of 65 he’s of obvious interest back over this CD with a recent pipe opener under his belt.

Selection:
10pts win – Dasheen @ 10/1 Coral

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4.55 Windsor: Novice Stakes, 1 mile

I really like the look of Desert Land. Granted, it’s an unknown how this colt has trained on over the winter, and given he has no fancy entries at this stage, it’s a big question mark how good he can be.

But a few points I find really positive: he was an excellent 4th on debut in a hot Yarmouth maiden last September under a sympathetic hands and heels ride, merely 2½ behind smart winner Royal Meeting, who won subsequently the Group 1 Criterium International, beating subsequent 1000 Guineas champion Hermosa.

He looked like he could have gone much harder in the closing stages if asked to do so. Desert Land is obviously quite well bred and related to a few good winners. He’s also an April foal, so should really start to come into his own now.

The question mark is the trip. There is a lot of speed in his pedigree, although also enough stamina to give a mile a go – also he looked like having no issue with 7f whatsoever in his sole run as a 2-year-old.

Selection:
10pts win – Desert Land @ 5/1 William Hill

Monday Selections: April, 29th 2019

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I said in my preview my hope for Winklemann is that Miss Imogen Mathias won’t fall off. She didn’t. But she also couldn’t have given the poor horse a worse ride. Winklemann finished a close third in the end. So did Roaring Rory, who stayed on from a long way back in his race.

No complaint, though: I knew the dangers of backing a horse in an Amateur race. And maybe it wouldn’t have mattered if a different jockey would have steered Winklemann home. It’s easy to point out a seemingly weak ride while sitting comfortably in the chair myself, of course.

I was massively impressed with Pink Dogwood at Navan today. The ante-post favourite for the Epsom Oaks proved too strong for her rivals in the listed Salsabil Stakes over 10f. She showed a lovely attitude under a hands and heels ride and looks to have wintered well from a physical standpoint as well.

She’s been cut from 6/1 to 7/2 in the meantime. I’m not the man for ante-post wagers these days, so will not touch it. But I think she’ll be hard to beat if getting to Epsom healthy.

On to Monday – there’s plenty of flat action both on the All-Weather as well as on the green lush grass! Still, I’m a little bit surprised to have found nearly two hands full of selections…. whether that’s a good or a bad sign remains to be seen.

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2.10 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Smashing Lass is the only winner in this field – a poor line-up with a few unexposed sorts, but generally one where the filly stands out. She won a seller last year and also was a decent runner-up at Newcastle twice.

A recent seasonal reappearance was surely nothing more than a pipe opener and big improvement is expected from that run. She has dropped to a 55 handicap mark, while she already ran to a TS rating of 59 and 54 in the past.

So improvement is possible, also as she was an April foal and may get better with age. First time Southwell is always a risk, but her sire has an excellent fibresand record. Interestingly, it’s Shane Gray’s only ride on the card.

Selection:
10pts win – Smashing Lass @ 9/1 PP

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2.20 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

The favourite is clearly opposable given his super skinny price. I’m keen on Rantan, even though the draw may not be an advantage with the pace more drawn toward the other side.

Nonetheless, I feel this lad has been campaigned with this race potentially in mind. He had two pipe openers over the minimum trip. Last time out here at Newcastle he finished quite nicely showing a bit of spark in the closing stages, while it was obvious he needs further.

He drops in class but is stepped up in trip. He slipped to an incredibly dangerous mark as well, judged by last seasons performances in particular.

Selection:
10pts win – Rantan @ 15/1 MB

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3.45 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 1 mile

Dropping in class here and further down in the ratings, Me Too Nagasaki may finally found a race to fulfill expectations. He was well backed since joining the Stuart Williams yard, and though running with credit most of the time, he never looked like winning.

Surely the now 5-year-old isn’t the force of the past, but down to a mark of 75 he looks very dangerous, particularly down in a class 5 Handicap. It’s his second time on the fibresand – even though well beaten in January, he looked like taking to it until falling away after travelling widest of all throughout in a hot class 3 Handicap coming off a long lay-off.

This here looks a very winnable race – if he can finish off his race. The way he dropped out lately is slightly concerning, in truth. But he’s the class act in this field, so I give Me Too Nagasaki the benefit of the doubt as he is potentially well handicapped.

Selection:
10pts win – Me Too Nagasaki @ 13/2 PP

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4.15 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

This is an ultra-competitive race. Margins could be decisive, so being drawn wider than ideal is a negative. Nonetheless I feel Big Brave Bob has a tremendous chance first time out for a new yard if race fit.

It’s likely hell be race fit given Big Brave Bob returns to the place of his biggest- and sole success: the 6f at Southwell. He won here last year in taking style, even if the tight margin tells a different story. He clearly looked like an individual who’d strive on the fibresand.

He followed up with a number of good performances of higher marks in good races – particularly his follow-up effort at Bath is super strong form; but also all his last runs on the AW are solid.

He left the Hannon yard over the winter, and has also dropped down to a mark of 70. With a fair 5lb claimer in the saddle, back on the fibresand, I think there is a good chance Big Brave Bob has too much on his plate for the rest of this field.

Selection:
10pts win – Big Brave Bob @ 6/1 MB

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4.25 Newcastle: Class 3 Handicap, 1 mile

Ballard Down looks underappreciated in this race. Since changing yards he has ran well on two occasions, particularly an unlucky 3rd place finish behind Mr. Scaramanga rates a strong piece of form.

He’s clearly a tricky sort, but Newcastle’s straight mile suits him. Down to a 91 mark now, I feel he looks poised for a big performance, given there seems to be a good deal of pace in the race as well, to see him coming with a late charge to get his head in front again.

Selection:
10pts win – Ballard Down @ 16/1 PP

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4.55 Windsor: Class Handicap, 6f

Kwela was desperately unlucky not to get her head in front when being several times severely  impeded in the closing stages at Lingfield on her seasonal debut recently.

She’s a pound higher today but that won’t make a difference. Back on turf, with fast ground likely to suit well, she can attack from pole position riding the golden highway of Windsor.

Excellent Georgia Dobie keeps the ride; she’s well worth her 7lb claim and I predict we’ll hear a lot of her in the future.

Selection:
10pts win – Kwela @ 5/1 WH

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6.30 Windsor: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

The favourite Just Brilliant is an intriguing runner here: a lightly raced colt for a good yard and race fit. But he’s a short price for all he has shown to date.

I put trust in Silvestre De Sousa’s mount Allegiant, who hopefully doesn’t lack for fitness either. The gelding is also low mileage, but already won a race: on handicap debut coming off a break at Epsom last autumn. He couldn’t follow on from there  when turned under a penalty soon after, but he seems to be a tricky individual and maybe the race came too soon.

He’s 7lb higher in the mark today, but ran to a TS rating of 69 at Epsom – so, if he can find any bit of improvement for age and the new trip, he could well be a good thing.

Allegiant certainly looks the part. A big, strong gelding with scope. On pedigree the 10f looks a fair possibility, and even though fast ground was cited as a potential reason for his under-performance when last seen, I think it could, in fact should suit.

Selection:
10pts win – Allegiant @ 6/1 MB

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7.30 Windsor: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 3.5f

Couple of weeks ago I was keen on New Show…. and desperately disappointed with his run. However, it’s too early to give up on him. What applied back then still applies today as reason why he remains an interesting individual:

New Show ran an almighty race in a hot handicap when last seen in 2018. Inexperience cost him dearly that day but to be in it for as long as he was was impressive. That Goodwood race has worked out tremendously well, so, if he can improve as a 4-year-old with age and experience, he could be on a nice mark.

As a late April foal, with low mileage, you do hope there is more to come. H steps up in trip again and tries blinkers for the first time. At the same time, dropping in grade should help as well.

Selection:
10pts win – New Show @ 11/2 Coral

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7.40 Thirsk: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

It’s fair to say Star Ascending is a better horse on the All-Weather than on turf, an on the synthetics he wasn’t particularly good lately either. On the other hand, back in January he won seemingly with a bit in hand a class 5 handicap over 12f in fine style.

He can race off a 6lb lower mark than he did that day at Wolverhampton. Judged by the past that may not mean all that much, as Star Ascending had plenty of chances on turf and has only one win to his name in 17 attempts.

However, over 12f and on decent ground he had very few opportunities to run, the last one eleven months ago at Doncaster where he finished 5th, albeit a good deal beaten. He ran off 69 that day, and in the context of the form of that particular race, it was probably quite a good performance.

So 5lb lower than when last seen on turf now, a fair 5lb claimer in the saddle as well – even though he’s totally inexperienced at Thirsk, so hopefully this isn’t just a race to gain vital experience, as also trainer Candish hasn’t an overly fruitful record with apprentices.

That’s the clear risk. But if Star Ascending can find back some form and doesn’t miss the kick most importantly, as he sometimes does, he may be able to utilize a good draw (high draws over 12f at Thirsk an advantage) there is a fair chance he can outrun his price tag.

Selection:
10pts win – Star Ascending @ 16/1 MB

Monday Selections: April, 8th 2019

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4.50 Windsor: Class 5 Handicap, 1 mile

Cuttin’ Edge is still relatively unexposed on turf and has fallen to a tasty mark on his return to the green grass. The 5-year-old won last November an Apprentice Handicap at Lingfield over a mile ine fine style of 2lb higher than his current rating.

He wasn’t able to follow up with another success during the winter, but his latest effort looked much better, so he may be nearing to find some form again.

Back on turf, however for the first time over a mile, and 9lb lower than when last seen on this surface, I feel he could be well-in by a few pounds, as he’s already ran to a TS rating of 65 in the past and first time blinkers may edge out a bit improvement also.

With the new headgear I expect him to be ridden positively, which always is an advantage at Windsor I reckon.

Selection:
10pts win – Cuttin’ Edge @ 12/1 WH