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Betting

Thursday Selections: 9th May 2024

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3.05 Chester: Listed Dee Stakes, 1m 2.5f

This looks a seriously competitive renewal of the Dee Stakes, with 4 of 5 colts certainly open to improvement over this trip, with hopes that they will enhance their own Derby credentials.

Obviously, God’s Widow is the one I’m most interested in. One of my Horses to Follow this year, today is an important day for his future prospects.

Initially, having seen the early prices, I wasn’t prepared to back him at short enough odds. But I’m happy to take the drift right now, prices in the realms of 10/3 a touch too big.

The betting has Jayarabe as the 2/1 favourite this morning. You can see why. Two from three, and an impressive seasonal reappearance in the Feilden Stakes last month, he ran to a solid 96 speed rating that day, proved his fitness, and will appreciate moving up in trip today as well.

I can’t fault him other than Chester is a different track that may or may not suit. We don’t know where his ceiling is. The only thing I have against him is the price.

On the other hand, I’m not sure what to make of Bracken’s Laugh. A fine winning return at Chelmsford recently over a mile, he showed promise on his debut, though didn’t get home in deep ground over 10 furlongs, albeit in hot company.

Capulet was beaten by Bracken’s Laugh at Chelmsford, perhaps with some slight excuses. His juvenile form is setting a good standard, and he should enjoy moving up in trip and surely will be ready to go today.

For all that, the O’Brien yard doesn’t seem in brilliant form lately, and Capulet is likely far down the pecking order, too. A career-best 89 speed rating up until now doesn’t scream “superstar” either.

Harper’s Ferry can’t be totally ignored. He’s got to improve significantly, though. Not impossible, given his pedigree. He’s shown issues at the start in all three career runs, and that’s off-putting.

That brings me to God’s Widow. The clear question mark is the ground. His runs all came with significant juice in the ground. However, he may rather overcame the conditions, than that they are a ‘must’ for him.

His half-sister as well as his dam all won and did well on fast ground, in fact. His action doesn’t imply to my untrained eye that’s he “soft ground slogger”.

However, God’s Widow will absolutely love the step up in trip after having raced over about a mile in all his three career runs to date and looked a highly promising colt.

He achieved a fine 77 speed rating on debut, and showed a likable turn of foot that day at Doncaster despite not being advantaged by how the race developed early on, travelling without cover the first 1.5 furlongs, and coming from off the pace in a slowly run race.

Subsequently deemed good enough to contest a deep Futurity Stakes, where he missed the break and was quite keen in the early part of the race. Despite being poorly positioned the colt finished in impressive style for third place.

I was delighted with his seasonal reappearance at Nottingham last month. He didn’t beat much, and this was more like a public racecourse gallop for this son of Dubawi.

The positives were clear and obvious, though: he kicked clear easily, posting good sections in soft ground, without having been properly asked. There must be a huge engine under the hood.

The dam was an Oaks Trial winner. The dam sire a King George winner. Dad is no one less than Dubawi. The step up to the 1m 2.5f trip should suit.

Drawn in #1, he can hopefully find a ground saving position behind the likely pace Capulet and possibly Jayarabe.

10pts win – God’s Widow @ 10/3

Betting

Thursday Selections: 9th November 2023

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8.00 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Crystal Dawn looks seriously well-handicapped in this poor field today as she drops in class and drops down to her most recent winning mark after a seriously noteworthy lto run.

A fortnight ago at Wolverhampton the mare wasn’t the sharpest at the start and subsequently wasn’t helped by a mad keen rival who kept her on the outside.

As a consequence she travelled wide throughout the race, although seemingly going strongly approaching the home turn. The jockey made zero attempts to actually improve position, though, and started riding when it was way too late.

She wasn’t expected in the betting on the day at all. So no surprise to see her finish the way she did. However, she did ran a number of solid races this year, suggesting there’s some mileage left.

Crystal Dawn is now down to a 53 rating, the same she won off last September over this course and distance, and subsequently off 3lb higher at Wolverhampton as well.

The help of a solid 7lb claimer is an added bonus today. Without a doubt she’s a real standout chance here in this poor 0-52 contest, a much easier race than the one she contest the last two times.

Cheek pieces are added and help, hopefully, with sharpness out of the gate, with the aim to utilise the #3 draw to best effect.

10pts win – Crystal Dawn  @ 7/2

Betting

Thursday Selections: 26th October 2023

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The hot favourite The Caltonian takes most of the market and that doesn’t appear unfair. It’s a question of whether the 4-year old gelding remains ahead of his mark to make it 3 from 3 in blinkers.

He’s got to carry a 10lb penalty, and may be able to continue his W-streak, having ran to a strong speed rating last time out once again. Perhaps this is a hotter contest today, and carrying top-weight won’t be as easy a task, I believe.

No doubt, he’s the likeliest winner, but I feel at the same time he’s a bit too short in a race I wouldn’t call uncompetitive.

The one I find most intriguing as an alternative is Guiteau. He caught the eye last time over this course and distance, albeit in a slightly easier race, when second behind Fayasel, who’s here today as well, and also an intriguing runner with the pace scenario likely to suit.

Nonetheless, Guiteau, only a pound higher than last time, is the one I’m siding with: after a solid start from #3 he travelled well throughout but was somewhat stuck against the inside rail and lost ground as the race developed.

He was held up around the home bend when the crucial moves where made and that cost him the race. Once out in the clear he made strong progress and ran home the fastest over the last three furlongs.

That was only his 3rd run on the All-Weather and close to his career-best. Even though Guiteau remains a maiden, I feel he’s got scope for improvement on the sand and could have a some pounds in hand.

He can be a bit keen early on. Hence pace is a question mark. From his #2 draw I hope with a more experienced rider in the saddle, Murphy won’t hesitate and simply grabs the lead if the early fractions are slow. Guiteau has performed well from the front in the past.

Otherwise, if Fayasal or Mayor Gatsby set out fast, then Guiteau is well placed to track them for a prime spot as the field turns for home. That’s the theory. In any case at 9’s he’s overpriced today.

10pts win – Guiteau @ 9/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 10th August 2023

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It wasn’t quite the dream start on Tuesday: Albegone finished 2nd, beaten by a head in a dramatic finish. At least I got a solid run for my money, which couldn’t be said for Mudskipper who went backwards as soon as he hit the home straight, much the same way his price went throughout the evening.

……..

2.25 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Plenty of question marks over most in this field, but 3-year-old gelding Dartman is a rock-solid runner who caught the eye in a hot York Handicap when last seen.

That day he led and set a solid pace, especially in the first half of the race. He hit the home straight in front but was soon heavily challenged.

Racing room became tight and he got hampered over 1.5f out, though was perhaps already going backwards. Nonetheless, I was impressed by the attitude he showed to keep going, as he found some momentum in the final furlong and run well to the line.

Dartman remains a maiden after six career starts, but showed promise a number of times and looks capable of a big run off a 74 handicap mark.

This isn’t a strong race and 7 furlongs at Brighton could suit him really well, if he handles the ground.

This is also William Carver’s only ride on the day. He goes pretty well and is one of the stronger riders here. The negative is the drift in the betting this morning. Although, it makes Dartman a very backable price in my book.

10pts win – Dartman @ 7/1

………

7.15 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

I can see the appeal of unexposed Muktamil off a low mark as the son of Sea The Stars should enjoy this trip. But as many in this field, plenty of question marks on fitness and form. This is wide open.

Not sure today is her day, the drying ground however should be a big help, Beccara Rose appears overpriced as she moves up in trip as well and should enjoy the 10 furlongs at this galloping track.

I thought her last run at Kempton was huge given the circumstances in what was a strong race. A repeat of that level of performance will see her go close.

There she was slowly away, but soon recovered and doing probably too much to move quickly into a midfield position.

She kicked on well over two furlongs out to finish second fastest over the last three furlongs but couldn’t quite get to speedier and better placed rivals.

The return to turf will suit as long as the ground continues to dry, which is expected during a hot day. I believe she could be well-handicapped here if allowed to run on merit.

She showed promise in the past and had excuses in her lesser runs as she didn’t seem to enjoy cut in the ground this year and doesn’t seem to have an overly pronounced knee action, while her full-sister (highest OR 91) did all her winning on decent ground as well.

But it remains noteworthy Beccara Rose was a strong 4th behind Soul Sister on her debut – in soft – last year.

10pts win – Beccara Rose @ 17/2

Betting

Thursday Selections: 29th June 2023

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7.45 Leicester: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Plenty of things change for Malham Tarn Cove today: a slight drop in class, drop in trip and certainly better ground than the first two times he was seen this year.

Last time at this track over 6 furlongs he caught the eye in deep ground as he travelled quite well for a long time, made solid progress from 2f out to put a good challenge to the long-term leader.

The effort on the soft ground took his toll as he got pretty tired in the final furlong and had to settle for third place in the end.

This looks strong form and he meets lesser rivals today, while the handicapper has been kind to leave him on the same mark.

The change in underfoot conditions is intriguing. While the dam did all her best work on soft ground, the sire was top-class on a faster surface. He doesn’t seem to have that high a knee action to think he needs soft juice in the ground to be seen to best effect.

I also think he showed solid enough early speed in his two Handicap runs this year to suggest the drop in trip won’t be an issue, especially in this field.

A solid pace looks likely, which will suit. The only negative is the fact he’s drawn away from the pace. I hope that won’t be a big problem and he can get out of the gate well, to move right across and track the likely pace setters Big Impact and Buddy’s Beauty.

Off a lowly handicap mark, if the ground and drop in trip can bring out improvement he’ll be well-handicapped here.

Saying that, the market seems to have caught on this, I’m late to the party and the juice is squeezed out of the price rapidly. Wouldn’t go much shorter than 4s.

10pt win –  Malham Tarn Cove @ 9/2

Betting

Thursday Selections: 22nd June 2023

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Huge run by Inquisitively to finish a gallant 3rd in the Windsor Castle today. Another big price hitting the post but the ball didn’t get over the line, sadly.

Bay Bridge didn’t get the best of runs but never looked like he could challenge anyway. Wen Moon was an ugly watch. Graham Lee gave the gelding a shocking ride, willingly or unwillingly…. Azaim a big drifter and beaten early.

…..

5.00 Ascot: Britannia Stakes, 1m

As competitive as it gets, yet I feel quite strong about Physique, who looks seriously overpriced if he could settle in the early stages.

That’s the key question as he moves up in trip again. There’s enough to believe the trip won’t be an issue stamina wise, especially the way he finished last time out.

But he can be keen early on, and that would be a deadly sin in this race. His young rider doesn’t have all that much experience, either. There is a clear risk.

On the other hand, plenty of pace looks to be present in this field. It should be a fast race, and that will suit Physique, who should have a solid chance from the #8 draw to get into a prominent position, as he likes to be, normally.

I hope connections don’t opt for an experiment where they hold him up, in the hope to preserve his stamina. If that is the case you can turn off the TV after the first two furlongs. It’s another risk, worth taking at the price, though.

Physique couldn’t have been more impressive earlier this month at Goodwood, which was a superb follow-up from an already excellent performance a month earlier over the same course and distance.

He got caught wide and without cover from the highest draw and as a consequence struggled to find cover pretty much for the majority of the race.

The gelding was clearly lit up and his chances decimated by the halfway mark. He also was ever so slightly impeded by a tiering front-runner from 2 furlongs out before he finished extremely strongly – in fact, he ran home the fastest over the last two furlongs, regardless.

It’s fair to say with a better draw and a little bit more in-running luck, he would have won. Still lightly raced, Physique has the scope to continue his progress, especially off his current 91 handicap mark.

He has shown to handle fast ground without a problem, so drying conditions aren’t a worry. He looks ideally suited to this type of test, if the pace is on and is most likely well-handicapped.

10pts win – Physique @ 35/1

……….

5.35 Ascot: Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes, 1m 2f

I’m a fan of Epictetus, and not only because of his name. An incredibly consistent colt, he ran to 93, 97 and 91 speed ratings this year in his three runs and mixed it with strong opposition the last two times.

He may struggle to win a Group 1, but down in class he’s a massive runner over a course and distance, on possibly perfect ground.

However, this is a competitive renewal of the race. Progressive Drumroll has to give weight away but will be suited by the likely strong pace.

Torito is another serious prospect for the Gosden yard. Lightly raced, progressive and a fine winner of a hot Handicap at Epsom earlier this month.

Caernarfon ran a super race in the Oaks to finish a strong third. The drop in trip is likely to suit her and she looks competitive against the males down in grade.

The likes of unexposed Expolanet, or Kevin Ryan’s Heron Stakes winner Captain Winter can’t be easily dismissed either.

One who I feel is almost certain to enjoy the test, and appears overpriced, is Waipiro, though.

He endured a disaster of a run in the Derby where he was slowly away, as a consequence was caught behind a wall of horses, trailed the field and had to come around very wide for a run on the outside.

He made excellent progress from 4f out around Tattenham Corner, before his effort fizzled out from 2f out, somewhat understandably.

There is also every possibility that he didn’t get the trip, in any case. Though, I thought he actually confirmed the promise he showed at Newmarket earlier this season where he kicked on in fine style to win a Novice Stakes, before he finished a strong runner-up in the Lingfield Derby Trial.

Whether he’s a genuine Group 1 horse remains to be seen. He could be underestimated, though, and certainly seems to be underappreciated in the betting in this easier grade as he drops down to 10 furlongs.

He ran to a 97 speed rating at Lingfield also. That stands up seriously well in this field. Yes, others could improve past that, though not too many look potentially capable of that, right now, at least. While Waipiro himself is open to improvement over this trip.

10pts win – Waipiro @ 12/1

…..

5.45 Leopardstown: 47-70 Handicap, 7f

This could be a great opportunity for Punk Poet, who seems overpriced. He drops in grade, this is much easier than all his races this year, over a trip he has no issue with and on ground likely to suit.

He dropped significantly in the ratings over last weeks and is down to a dangerously low 69 handicap mark now. There are clear and obvious reasons for that, though, I felt he hinted a return to some form a few times as well.

Back in April in a hot race over 6 furlongs he travelled strongly and finished well, and last month at the Curragh in a super competitive Apprentice Handicap he showed his usual good early speed and ran well until fading badly from 2 furlongs out in deep ground.

Leopardstown tomorrow should ride a bit better, and that will suit. The pace doesn’t look too hot, so from #8 draw he should be able to move across easily to have an ideal spot behind likely pace setter Maggie And Me or Turbine.

If Punk Poet could find anything close to last summers form in these conditions then he’s a big danger to all.

Last year he won off 82 and 83, also ran to an 82 speed rating. He’s versatile ground- and distance wise but probably 7 furlongs is his optimum.

10pts win – Punk Poet @ 9/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 15th June 2023

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Wow. Truly shocking stuff right now. 18 and counting. It all goes wrong. A truly odd ride on Pearle D’or, who finished 6/7 but had zero chance from his position after being restraint, despite the fact his upturn in form came when making the running last time.

He didn’t even have a bad start. In fact, all options were open to Jason Watson for about the lengths of the first furlong. He opted for the worst of all options – the only one you want to take over this course & distance if you want to minimise your chances of winning.

Not here to bash jockeys from my armchair. It is what it is, but I felt the horse was not given a fair chance, and that’s disappointing. It fits the picture right now as it happened a number of times over the last days that the race was over right after the start. A rotten spell of the worst kind.

………

5.10 Yarmouth: Class 6 Classified Stakes, 6f

This is a rather competitive field for this nature of race. The pace scenario looks ominous. There should be enough on for a fair race, although it all is going to develop toward the far rail, most likely.

That’s not quite ideal for my selection, Griggy. He goes from #8, but I hope he can find find away to start well, cross over and track the early pace. Or do I make the same mistake once again, backing a horse who’s chances are gone less than 10 seconds into the race?

If the possible pace setters Bernard Spierpoint, Oxygen Thief and Wrath of Hector go off too hard and take each other on it could tow Griggy nicely into the finish, though.

He certainly looks in excellent form and must have a prime chance in this contest after his latest eyecatching effort at Brighton.

He was forced to settle off the pace given the way the race developed at early, but was going well, poised for a challenge 3f out. Unfortunately, he had to wait for room as the gap was never truely opening up with horses right, left and center shifting around.

It was only late in the day he found the clear passage, and that’s when he finished best in the final furlong, eventually.

A great run and a clear return to form after two lesser efforts on the All-Weather.

Griggy is down to a sexy mark and that offers him the opportunity to run here in the Classified 0-50 contest. An 0/5 record on turf ready poorly, however he was never expected in any of those runs, including the most recent eyecatching one.

The Bath performance proved that he clearly handles fast ground and is dangerous on turf over 6 furlongs as well. The additional half furlong will be in his favour and a fast pace to track looks ideal, as long as he doesn’t get caught on the outside without cover.

The additional 3lb claim of a solid rider in the saddle are an added bonus. That’s the reason why I feel it’s worth taking on hot favourite Bernard Spierpoint who was an impressive winner and always goes well in these type of races.

He ran an impressive speed rating, judged on his current Official Rating certainly, as well. At the same time, Yarmough is a completely different track to Brighton, the pace is a different one here, and that most recent field of five rivals he had to beat was incredibly poor.

There are some better rivals here. First and foremost Griggy, who has an advantage in the weights, too.

10pts win – Griggy @ 5/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 1st June 2023

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Imperial Khan won his race in fine style at Beverley on Wednesday. A no-nonsense ride by Laura Coughlin this time gave the gelding a very first career win.

Soul Seeker, in contrast, emptied quickly and was pretty disappointing, he was also a drifter in the betting beforehand. And yet, if you would have put a gun to my head, he’d have been my NAP today.

No complaints: it was a positive ending to May, no matter what.

170pts profit, 8 winners, 32% ROI.

Third green months in a row. After a shaky start to the 2023 the P/L sheet shows a healthy profit: 470pts.

I changed tack slightly in May: going more aggressively after selections, backing in the work done through the eyecatchers and showing a little less restraint in always waiting for the absolute perfect conditions for the horses I want to back.

53 selections later and a green months means that has worked. Only on the surface, though. Ultimately, I relied on a big price to come in to save the day… or the month, so to speak.

Finding the right balance will decide over success and failure for the rest of the year. I have to reign it in a little bit, without going back to that ultra-conservative approach of the past, which worked, but didn’t capitalise on all the effort that goes into the eyecatchers in first place.

As always it’s a constant process of optimisation. Shaping and re-shaping the process. Learning from the experience of others and being open to new ideas.

The details on all selections can be found as always in the Betting P&L.

…….

3.12 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Victors Dream was somewhat unfortunate a week ago at Wolverhampton and should be able to make amends off a similar mark here.

That day he had to overcome the widest draw and settled in rear, both a disadvantage in that race. He travelled strongly into the home straight, though had too much to do against front-running winner and also had give ground away all the time.

He finished much the best and achieved a strong 58 speed rating on what was his handicap debut. It was a significant improvement on everything he had done in three starts prior.

In any case, the gelding looks clearly ready to win off a 60 mark, especially with a low draw to attack the race from as he also drops into a slightly easier race.

10pts win – Victors Dream @ 3/1

……….

5.00 Yarmouth: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

How often can a horse catch the eye before you have to conclude he’s just not a genuine type? Let’s find out because Flying Secret is one of those notorious horses that attracts the comment “Eyecatcher” frequently.

It’s fair to say it was another eye-catching run on his seasonal reappearance at Chelmsford last month. He clearly wasn’t there to win but showed plenty enough to suggest he’s in shape.

The only surprise was see him run over 7 furlongs there. It’s a trip I believe is going to prove his optimum when the handbrake is off. He tried a number of times over 6 furlongs last season, when he was sometimes caught out for speed, other times bumped into well-handicapped rivals.

Whether he’s here to try remains to be seen. The Yard has a poor spell and Charles Bishop even gets odds-on shots beaten at the moment.

But if he’s here to win then I think off 71 on fast ground in class 5 over 7f he’s at least a solid win ahead of the handicapper. This is easier than most races he ran so well in over the last twelve month also.

10pts win – Flying Secret @ 11/2

Betting

Thursday Selections: 25th May 2023

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2.40 Catterick: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Birdie Bowers finally gets his conditions and he should be capable of much better than the price suggest. On turf he clearly needs better ground to be seen to best effect, and he gets it here.

The majority of his last runs were quite good and noteworthy, especially those on turf in softish conditions, including this course and distance, when he also ran a solid speed rating.

He confirmed his well-being with a good effort in competitive Handicap at Newcastle where 6f and the stiff finish were stretching him too much after going a strong pace as well.

He continues to fall in the ratings, can race now off 2lb lower than his last winning mark, when he won at Beverley on decent ground last August off 51.

10pts win – Birdie Bowers @ 12/1

…….

3.40 Catterick: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Favourite Ghost Lights is obvious interest as one of my eyecatchers. However, I feel he is better over 7 furlongs and is short enough a price to take on, with that in mind.

Azaim is another one who caught the eye – last time out at Musselburgh: after a sluggish first furlong he pushed forward to lead at a seriously fast pace, certainly in the first half of the race, before he fell away rapidly from over 2f out.

This was also a hot race with first and second very well-handicapped, hence the performance warrants an upgrade.

He doesn’t stay 7 furlongs, and neither did he have a chance to get home in the majority of his recent races. Still lightly enough raced, he’s an intriguing runner as he drops down to 6f.

10pts win – Azaim @ 9/1

…….

4.10 Catterick: Class 6 Handicap 6f

I’m interested in Captain Kirkup after his recent run but probably these aren’t his ideal conditions, so worth to wait for another day. However Lezardrieux showed great form the last two runs and has a strong chance here.

On his penultimate run at Newcastle he went really hard from the front, set a strong pace and travelled strongly. he was challenged from 2f out but remained in front until fading late.

It was a strong race with a good speed rating and it was noteworthy that he was able to follow up next time at Catterick with another strong run .

He was rather unfortunate as it was quite tight around the first bend and he was repeatedly short of room in the home straight, though.

This is a hot enough contest, but he’s got a good draw and is clearly in excellent form, ready to win.

10pts win – Lezardrieux @ 11/2

…….

7.52 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Love Destiny has been running better in recent weeks than the bare form would tell. He caught the eye at Kempton in March the way he stayed on after being seemingly beaten and I thought he travelled seriously well last time over this CD before going backwards.

He dropped dramatically in the weights and finds himself in a race today that could be set up perfectly for him. There isn’t much pace to compete with, so Atzeni could move quickly forward to try and steel it.

With first-time blinkers applied over Love Destiny’s preferred course and distance – he’s two from three here – he looks seriously overpriced.

10pts win – Love Destiny @ 11/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 18th May 2023

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14 losers on the bounce. Then came Soul Sister. She romped home in the Musidora on Wednesday and made a mockery of the 21/1 odds on offer.

A winner I needed to get back into green for May, which looked rather dismal up until the moment Frankie Dettori pressed the button on the filly as she accelerated and dipped bellow 11 seconds to storm home.

Chinthurst ran a solid race at Bath to finish 4th. Ultimately he wasn’t good enough. Will need to review the race again before making a decision whether he’s one worth persisting with.

……..

3.35 York. Group 2 Dante Stakes, 1m 2½f

This looks a hot edition of the Dante. I really like Epictetus and not just because he’s written one of my favourite books… the philosopher, not the horse, that is.

Epictetus is the only colt in the field with a 100+ speed rating to his name. Not sure he wants to much further than 10 furlongs. This additional half furlong may be too far, ultimately.

The experience and stamina of Flying Colours looks interesting, as long as he trained on, as he also ran to a 98 speed rating last year. Lightly-raced Passenger, Canberra Legend and recent Ballysax winner White Birch offer plenty of upside.

The one I’m incredibly keen to see for a while now is also finally making his belated seasonal reappearance: Continuous.

He’s one of my 3-year-olds to follow and certainly one of the more intriguing ones. And how could it be any different with his pedigree.

 A son of Japanese sire Heart’s Cry – who was a winner of the Sheema Classic in 2006 – out of Fluff, which was down to pure chance because the mare was supposed to be covered by Deep Impact, who sadly passed away right before she arrived in Japan.

Continues is the only son of Heart’s Cry actively racing in the UK and Ireland (possibly Europe) right now. His sire is well known for stamina in Japan, having sired Japan Cup winners and other multiple international top-class horses over middle-distance top-class .

He won well at the Curragh over 7 furlongs when he made all on his racecourse debut as he kicked on over 2 furlongs out to achieve an 80 speed rating as well, which confirmed he’s possibly a smart one.

Continuous went on to win a Group 3 at Saint-Cloud over a mile. A gutsy performance in a slowly run race that didn’t suit him. I loved the attitude he showed in those first two career runs.

There no doubt in my mind he’ll improve moving up in trip and with age. Therefore 10.5f won’t be an issue. Neither should be track. He strikes me as a relentless galloper, who should enjoy York.

On the other hand the ground is a question mark. His juvenile form came on deep ground and he seems to hit the ground hard enough. It’s also a concern that he makes a belated seasonal reappearance. He was supposed to start much earlier, but Aiden O’Brien is on the record that he needed time.

How fit is Continuous here? I reckon they wouldn’t bother travelling over, as well as him as the sole entry for the Dante, if he wouldn’t be ready to go.

He’s doesn’t have an entry for the Derby, though. It’s Ascot and the Irish Derby as well as the Eclipse. That worries me less. Because he’ll have to run well enough to take up those entries.

Ryan Moore didn’t sound too excited about this lad for the Dante when asked. So there are enough negatives to leave him alone. On the other hand, the price is silly, as there’s enough to believe he can outrun these odds easily given his pedigree, the talent he showed as a juvenile.

10pts win – Continuous @ 11/1

…………

6.55 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

This could be the opportunity connections have been waiting for with Lord Rapscallion. It looks a perfect race for a number of reasons.

For one, his latest effort in a hot class 2 Handicap over this course and distance doesn’t read too well on the surface; however, one can easily argue he ran well, and perhaps even outperformed market expectations given he was only 4¼ lengths beaten as a 22/1 shot.

He travelled well for a long time and didn’t fade too badly in the final furlong, either. This is clearly a horse in good form. He was, though, outclassed.

This here is much, much easier. From 0-105 down to 0-80 level. Prior to this he showed a clear uptick in form at Chelmsford last month as well. it was a good run there, one that was an improvement on anything he showed since winning back to back in December.

He won off 76 and 80 then, and it’s looks significant that he dropped town to his last winning mark now again. He’s probably a little bit better on turf, though. He ran twice to speed rating 84+ last year on turf over 7 furlongs, which means he’s got a bit in hand, possibly.

Lord Rapscallion may prefer the July course over the Rowley Mile, but as mentioned earlier, he looked solid over this CD recently, and with the drying ground expected, shouldn’t have an issue to act here.

The race may develop in an ideal way for him as well. There is plenty of pace on. He is at his best when he can closely follow a good pace. That’s scenario is given here and he sees out the trip strongly, even can win over a mile.

10pts win – Lord Rapscallion @ 9/1