Tag Archives: Thursday

Thursday Selections: August, 16th 2018

Wet Dundalk Polytrack

3.20 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 6f

Open contest and relatively competitive for this class. I’m siding with top weight Folies Bergeres as the filly looks well handicapped judged by her early season All-Weather form.

The trip is a question mark. She didn’t always give the impression to be crying out for a marathon, neither is her pedigree conclusive. On the other hand, her best form came in April in a decent class 5 Kempton Handicap over 1m 4f when she finished a fine 3rd and ran all the way to the line.

This race as well has her previous run at Kempton in March give her a big chance today if she can reproduce that sort of form now down to a handicap mark off 62. She hasn’t fired on turf at all in three subsequent starts, so the return to the sand needs to spark a revival.

That is obviously reflected in the price. But given she ran so well on the All-Weather before, has dropped to a handy mark and has the assistance of a good 5lb claiming apprentice, I rate her a better chance here.

Selection:
10pts win – Folies Bergeres @ 10/1 PP

Thursday Selections: August, 9th 2018

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2.50 Yarmouth + 4.00 Brighton:

An unusual multiple bet for me, but individually it’s too short to play, combined I nice chance to succeed at tasty odds.

Lightly raced Black Lotus in the Yarmouth Handicap was an excellent winner lto at Haydock. The form works out well already and the filly showed clear ability to be quite a bit better than her rating as she was winning cozily in the end and still ran to a TSR of 66. Her revised mark shouldn’t be enough to stop her.

A similar situation for Affina to some extend. She ran really well over a mile at Doncaster when runner-up recently. That form looks strong. She ran to a TSR of 78 that day, so on her revised mark has not too much to improve which is likely for this lightly raced filly as she steps up to a much more suitable 10f trip. It’s Tom Marquand only ride on the day – a tip in itself.

Selection:
10pts win – Black Lotus + Affina @ 3.75/1 Sky

……..

4.30 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Yet to win on turf, Sir Jamie came close only one day ago at this very same venue over 7f. He was only beaten when a well handicapped 3-year old came storming home from the back off the field.

This three times AW winner steps up to a mile today, which is his preferred trip. He can race off the same mark and judged on his performance yesterday has a strong chance. He also ran to TSR or 51 yesterday. This additional furlong may unlock a bit more for this still progressive 5-year old gelding.

It’s an easier race too, as he drops down to class 6. He’ll bottle the start as he always does but that’s not a problem as he can settle at the back and in should get a clear run in this small field.

Selection:
10pts win – Sir Jamie @ 9/2 PP

Thursday Selections: August, 2nd 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

He’s finally done it! Lightning Spear after more than two handful of attempts finally broke through the barrier to land a Group 1! And how he did it – beautifully timed and produced with patience and poise by Osisin Murphy, the seven year old colt stormed to success in the Sussex Stakes. A great price he was all the same (selection @ 12.5/1)!

……….

3.00 Goodwood: Group 1 Richmond Stakes, 6f

Ballydoyle isn’t going quite as strong as one would usually see this time of the year. There were issues in the yard reportedly. Nonetheless Land Force looks a supreme candidate to land the Richmond Stakes today.

He’s been a February foal so no surprise to see him having quite a bit of racing already in his legs as he also appears to be a good looking and imposing individual. He took the step up to graded class in his stride when finishing a strong 3rd in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. Arguably a race he wasn’t advantaged due to his positioning toward the stand side for most parts of the race.

He finished very strongly, indicating a step up to 6f will be beneficial. He remained over the minimum trip next time out in a Listed contest at Tipperary. Not the strongest of contests, but he only needed to be pushed under under hands and heels to win cozily.

Today’s test looks ideal for this speedy individual. The additional furlong won’t be a problem, neither is the ground.

Selection:
10pts win – Land Force @ 7/2 PP

Thursday Selections: July, 26th 2018

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8.50 Newbury: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Bottom weight He’s Our Star can go back to back today, after a rather impressive maiden win in a class 5 Handicap against his own age four weeks ago at this very venue.

He seemed slightly flat footed early on as the pace was strong – that’s the major concern dropping down to 7f today – but found himself with a wall of horses to pass in the home straight.

Once with  bit of daylight the three year old gelding jump for it, producing a nice turn of foot to win a shade cozily on the line, despite the close winning margin.

He’s only gone up 3lb for this success, while the form has been franked multiple times in the meantime. He also raced to a TS rating of 67 that day, which equals his new mark.

With a low weight today and a potentially underestimation of his true merit by the handicapper, He’s Our Star should have a cracking chance to follow-up on this recent success today, as long he isn’t completely taken off his feat by slightly shorter trip.

Selection:
10pts win – He’s Our Star @ 5/1 PP

Thursday Selections: July, 12th 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

5.45 Doncaster: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Acadian Angel has been largely disappointing this season after largely promising efforts as a three year old last year. As a result she has tumbled down the weights to what looks a dangerous mark.

She returns to a place she’s won before over the same distance and ground conditions. While she hasn’t been knocking on the door lately, digging a bit deeper her form seems not too bad, in fact. She ran to time speed ratings in and around her current mark.

In addition a visor has been applied for the first time, that may eke out some improvement. Certainly having Silvestre De Sousa on board is an added bonus.

Selection:
10pts win – Acadian Angel @ 10/3 Coral

Thursday Selections: June, 14th 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

5.30 Nottingham: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

Top Beak has dropped dramatically in his handicap mark over the last twelve months – for good reason. He still managed to finish 3rd of o a mark off 90 in April 2017 but his form deteriorated ever since.

He’s also a very infrequent winner, to say the least. Nonetheless there’s hope. I have been encouraged by Top Beak’s last two highly credible runs at Lingfield and Sandown. He ran well enough from the rear of the field to suggest with a little bit more help from the handicapper and the right conditions he can be bang there.

Today he finally gets fast ground again which looks ideal. He also dropped further, now on 62, with the additional bonus of 5lb claimed by excellent apprentice Paddy Bradley.

It’s a big field and he needs a bit of luck in these, but if Bradley can nurse Top Beak through it and deliver the gelding at the right time he has a big chance to finally get his head in front again.

Selection:
10pts win – Top Beak @ 9/1 Sky

Thursday Selections: June, 7th 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

5.20 Yarmouth: Class 6 Handicap, 1 mile

The 3 year old’s add spice to this open contest. Macho Guest is the one I prefer from the lot.

The son of Camacho did show little in three maiden starts, but with a run this season already under his belt he should strip race fit. Now stepping up to 1 mile for the first time off a very low opening mark Macho Guest looks dangerous.

Apprentice Jane Elliott claims valuable 5lb and has a strong record for trainer George Margarson.

Selection:
10pts win – Macho Guest @ 12/1 Sky

….

6.25 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 6f

Very competitive race where pace and positioning may become key. That worries me about my selection Manor Park, who was raw, green and to some extend clueless when winning a Windsor Handicap over 11.5f on handicap- & seasonal debut last month.

However, the way he was grinding it out regardless was impressive. He matched his opening mark with the time speed rating achieved that day. Stepping up in trip looks sure to suit with fast ground no issue whatsoever.

His revised handicap mark could easily underestimate him given the new trip and experience gained.

Selection:
10pts win Manor Park @ 7/1 VC

……..

2.10 Ripon: Class 5 Novice Stakes, 6f

I believe the odds-on favourite is bad value while Mark Johnston’s runner is a tasty price. MJ has a superb record with juveniles in Novice company, particularly if they drop in class.

Yellow Fire does drop significantly in class after a promising debut at Bath where he ran green and made too much early on. This form looks strong through the third who is a fair benchmark with a place behind a subsequent Listed winner.

Despite being a May foal, Yellow Fire looks big, strong and scopy. This easier 6f trip should suit him, though the draw away from the rails is a slight concern, in fairness.

Selection:
10pts win – Yellow Fire @ 4/1 WH