Tag Archives: Thursday

Thursday Selections: November, 15th 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

That’s the way I like it – a much needed 20/1 winner in Iley Boy tonight. A superb ride by Joey Haynes, who certainly made his only ride on the card count!

His mount didn’t seem to travel overly well early on, particularly after being hampered soon after the the start. He was well off the pace turning for home but was cruising hard on the bridle then and found the gaps when needed. The question “Is today the day to let Iley Boy loose?” was firmly answered!

……

12.10 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1 mile

This looks a rather competitive affair for this type of low grade race. That makes it difficult to assess. The same goes if it comes to get a clear grip on the horse I fancy quite a bit actually: Sooqaan.

Reasons why I like this lad allot are plenty; a simple reason why I’m wondering is: there is fair chance this isn’t the race to let the handbreak off. 

Sooqaan is handicapped to win on his best form. He won off 64 over course and distance earlier this year. However, he was on a roll at that time, completing a hat-trick, kicking it off wit a CD success of a mark of 54. So I can see why connections would want to lower his current rating a bit, still.

On the other hand Sooqaan could find an excellent chance to score, despite the competitive nature of the race. 

The fact that is: in class 6 over this course and distance he is 4 from 4! So, it looks significant that he drops down to this grade for the first time since he last win, coming back the his happy hunting ground all the while. If the mark should be run down further, surely a spin around Chelmsford or similar would do? 

Small bonus: Sooqaan has an excellent draw to attack the race. So weighing it all up, at given prices I am happy to roll the dice! 

Selection:
10pts win – Sooqaan @ 8/1 PP

……….

3.20 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

Always risky to punt a Southwell virgin – nonetheless, three-year-old Kabrit is an interesting contender here thanks to a featherweight I feel. He’s shown a bit of promise on turf this year when placed on three occasions in races that have had their form franked since then.

He comes here after a poor showing in his final turf start last month; however it was off a break and first time gelded. You’d hope he can come on for the run. 

Whether Kabrit truly stays the trip, particularly on the fibresand remains to be seen – Mr. Lee in the saddle seems a positive, given his excellent record when riding for Andre Balding.

Selection:
10pts win – Kabrit @ 9/1 PP

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Thursday Selections: November, 1st 2018

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8.45 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

The trip may not be ideal on paper, but in reality the majority of 6f starts for Lord Of The Glen to date can be discounted. I think, with given conditions today, he deserves another chance to stretch out over this trip.

The 3-year-old gelding drops nicely in his mark as well as quite significantly in grade, given only two starts back he was a fair 4th in a hot class 3 contest at Wolverhampton over the minimum trip.

To some extend it can be argued he followed up on that with another courageous display last time out at Newcastle. He was hampered right after the start, and was then on the wrong end of the field and pace, clearly in a disadvantaged position.

Lord Of The Glen still finished quite well, clocking the fastest sectional for the final furlong. He drops another pound in the mark, in combination with the lower grade and a perfect draw, he should run well tonight.

Selection:
10pts win – Lord Of The Glen @ 7/1 MB

Thursday Selections: October, 4th 2018

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5.35 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

The top weight is the one to beat in my book, despite his “patchy record” over the last weeks. Fact is Roundabout Magic has a proven track record here at Lingfield, particularly over the minimum trip and has achieved twice a TS rating off 67 this season, suggesting he is well up to his current mark off 66.

He’s been racing in better races lately, so dropping back into class 6 is a hint in itself. The last time he raced as low as this he won over CD back in February.

Roundabout Magic has a good draw to ensure he’s close to the pace in case this becomes a muddling affair. It’s a slight concern that he was slowly into stride lto, though this wasn’t a habit in the past, so here’s hoping it was only “Once Off”.

Jockey Nicky Mackay has only this single ride today and he has a pretty decent record for trainer Simon Daw in these type of races and has also won on Roundabout Magic already.

Selection:
10pts win – Roundabout Magic @ 7/2 WH

Thursday Selection: August, 29th 2018

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5.00 Catterick: Class  5 Handicap, 6f

It was a narrow margin on the line last month when Indian Pursuit won over course and distance. The five year old is a true course specialist and has won off higher marks here in the past. Most notably his final win in 2017, over CD of a mark off 65.

He’s been running to time speed ratings a good deal higher than his now revised mark off 62 in the past also. So in theory the 3lb raise for the latest success may not stop him yet.

It was a much more commanding win than the winning margin says, in my mind. First time visor fitted seemed to help as he crossed over from a wide draw and went to lead by a frantic pace by a couple of lengths for most parts and only inside the final furlong he tired.

Same conditions today, the wide draw, as we have seen, isn’t a problem. Indian Pursuit looks in with a big shout once more.

Selection:
10pts win – Indian Pursuit @ 13/2 MB

 

Thursday Selections: August, 23rd 2018

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4.50 York: Class 2 Handicap, 7f

Ultra competitive and in-running luck will play its part here, though it can be argued Move Swiftly has a cracking chance if all goes smoothly given her progressive and at the same time impressive profile.

Further down the packing order seems Richard Fahey’s Clubbable who’s not expected to run well if the market is any useful guide. I feel this filly has a bit more to offer than credit is given to, though.

She’s won two races this year already, was visually incredibly impressive when landing a good Chelmsford class 2 Handicap in June when things didn’t go to plan but she found a superb turn of foot once in the clear.

She backed this up with another big performance in the Listed Eternal Stakes at Carlisle when a close runner-up behind 100 rated Dance Diva. A subsequent Newmarket run stepping up to a mile was disappointing, however once shouldn’t judge her too harshly on a subsequent 16th place finish at Ascot most recently.

She received a heavy bump right after the start by the horse to her left and found herself subsequently behind a wall of horses and on the disadvantaged far side.

She’s down to a mark off 92 which looks high enough but also offers room for a bit of improvement with the right conditions. She will need luck in-running given her often sluggish start, but if Clubbable gets the right breaks she’ll have a better chance than her current odds suggest.

Selection:
10pts win – Clubbable @ 29/1 MB

Thursday Selections: August, 16th 2018

Wet Dundalk Polytrack

3.20 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 6f

Open contest and relatively competitive for this class. I’m siding with top weight Folies Bergeres as the filly looks well handicapped judged by her early season All-Weather form.

The trip is a question mark. She didn’t always give the impression to be crying out for a marathon, neither is her pedigree conclusive. On the other hand, her best form came in April in a decent class 5 Kempton Handicap over 1m 4f when she finished a fine 3rd and ran all the way to the line.

This race as well has her previous run at Kempton in March give her a big chance today if she can reproduce that sort of form now down to a handicap mark off 62. She hasn’t fired on turf at all in three subsequent starts, so the return to the sand needs to spark a revival.

That is obviously reflected in the price. But given she ran so well on the All-Weather before, has dropped to a handy mark and has the assistance of a good 5lb claiming apprentice, I rate her a better chance here.

Selection:
10pts win – Folies Bergeres @ 10/1 PP

Thursday Selections: August, 9th 2018

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2.50 Yarmouth + 4.00 Brighton:

An unusual multiple bet for me, but individually it’s too short to play, combined I nice chance to succeed at tasty odds.

Lightly raced Black Lotus in the Yarmouth Handicap was an excellent winner lto at Haydock. The form works out well already and the filly showed clear ability to be quite a bit better than her rating as she was winning cozily in the end and still ran to a TSR of 66. Her revised mark shouldn’t be enough to stop her.

A similar situation for Affina to some extend. She ran really well over a mile at Doncaster when runner-up recently. That form looks strong. She ran to a TSR of 78 that day, so on her revised mark has not too much to improve which is likely for this lightly raced filly as she steps up to a much more suitable 10f trip. It’s Tom Marquand only ride on the day – a tip in itself.

Selection:
10pts win – Black Lotus + Affina @ 3.75/1 Sky

……..

4.30 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Yet to win on turf, Sir Jamie came close only one day ago at this very same venue over 7f. He was only beaten when a well handicapped 3-year old came storming home from the back off the field.

This three times AW winner steps up to a mile today, which is his preferred trip. He can race off the same mark and judged on his performance yesterday has a strong chance. He also ran to TSR or 51 yesterday. This additional furlong may unlock a bit more for this still progressive 5-year old gelding.

It’s an easier race too, as he drops down to class 6. He’ll bottle the start as he always does but that’s not a problem as he can settle at the back and in should get a clear run in this small field.

Selection:
10pts win – Sir Jamie @ 9/2 PP