Tag Archives: yarmouth

Thursday Selections: August, 15th 2019

DSC_1062

4.45 Yarmouth: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

The favourite Simba Samba is likely to go well here, but has to prove full effectiveness over the minimum trip yet. At a bigger price I’m much more intrigued by Arnoul Of Metz who is still a turf maiden, but has ran well in a number of races, often looking like a horse that just needs to get the right break to get his head in front.

Of course if a horse is “unlucky” again and again it probably is not down to luck and more to lack of talent. Arnoul Of Metz is not a classy individual, for sure. But he only missed out narrowly on the Wolverhampton All-Weather last month and got hampered or buried behind a wall of horses in his last two turf starts at Chepstow and Musselburgh.

On his current handicap mark of 54 he offers the potential to find a bit more, if things fall his way finally. He already ran to a 56 topspeed rating when finishing off strongly at Muselburgh in May, when arguably unlucky.

The fast ground is sure to suit. The usual 5lb claimer is back on board. There is plenty to like about Arnoul Of Metz in a pretty winnable race.

Selection:
10pts win – Arnoul Of Metz @ 9/1 MB

……

6.40 Chepstow: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Cool Strutter looks ready for a massive run tonight. The 7-year-old doesn’t win often, but has fallen to a really low mark that should see him being certainly well in against poor opposition.

He’s ran to higher top-speed ratings twice within his last seven starts, suggesting he is capable of doing better than a 48 handicap mark.

Conditions will likely suit Cool Strutter. He’s won with cut in the ground and has been multiple times places when it’s really soft. The 6 furlongs seem ideal in these conditions, and the track should favour his running style also.

The added bonus of a fair 5lb claimer in the saddle make this a standout betting proposition in my mind.

Selection:
10pts win – Cool Strutter @ 6.2/1 MB

Wednesday Selections: August, 7th 2019

20150411_113220

8.15 Yarmouth: Class 5 Fillies’ Handicap, 7f

Still a turf maiden, but down to really dangerous handicap mark is Roman Spinner. She is a three times winner on the All-Weather and also has been in the money four times on turf already, doing so of higher marks than her current official rating.

She also ran multiple times to relatively high topspeed ratings compared to current handicap mark, suggesting she is now knocking heavily on the door.

The same suggests Roman Spinner’s most recent performance, when runner-up in strong four-runner contest at Chepstow last month where she finished strongly but was probably not advantaged by the pace scenario.

She drops another pound, down to a rating of 71 now. Conditions are sure to suit and a big run is very much on the cards today.

Selection:
10pts win – Roman Spinner @ 7/1 MB

Tuesday Selections: July 10th 2019

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

3.20 Yarmouth: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 6f

Interesting step up in trip for Soloist, who shaped like she may get this new distance after a fine runner-up effort at Catterick recently over 1m 3f.

That was only her second handicap start, and the lightly raced filly improved quite a bit that day from what she showed in four runs before.

She ran to a 70 topspeed rating that day, so the 1lb adjustment of her mark is probably more than fair – if she can improve for experience and distance, indeed.

Selection:
10pts win – Soloist @ 4/1 MB

…….

5.45 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1 mile

Fortune And Glory drops down to class 6 and is back on the All-Weather over his preferred mile trip at the place he ran to a career best last summer. Off 2lb lower he won a similar race really well, achieving a 65 topspeed rating as a consequence.

He won another race on turf later on at Salisbury, so now dropping again to quite handy mark after a number of not so good efforts is interesting, particularly in light of the most recent run, where, despite only finishing 7th, he wasn’t far beaten and caught the eye.

The aid of a good draw should help to be in a good position here in a race that is not all that competitive.

Selection:
10pts win – Fortune And Glory @ 7/2 MB

……..

6.00 Bath: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

This looks an ideal opportunity for Ramatuelle to score on what is her second handicap start and only 6th career start. Possibly campaigned over way too short as a juvenile, and ‘enjoying’ a pipe opener over a mile in May, she now is upped to a trip likely to suit on pedigree.

Her sire Champs Elysees has a superb record over 10f, particularly at Bath and on fast ground. The dam side points to this sort of distance also. Dropped to 51 after her handicap debut, Sir Mark Prescott has campaigned the 3-year-old smartly as of this mark, with these conditions, in quite a poor race, Ramatuelle will be a strong contender.

She also has a number of subsequent entries already, suggesting connections may well believe she is well in, turning her out quickly again.

Selection:
10pts win – Ramatuelle @ 11/1 MB

Thursday Selections: August, 9th 2018

DSC_1062

2.50 Yarmouth + 4.00 Brighton:

An unusual multiple bet for me, but individually it’s too short to play, combined I nice chance to succeed at tasty odds.

Lightly raced Black Lotus in the Yarmouth Handicap was an excellent winner lto at Haydock. The form works out well already and the filly showed clear ability to be quite a bit better than her rating as she was winning cozily in the end and still ran to a TSR of 66. Her revised mark shouldn’t be enough to stop her.

A similar situation for Affina to some extend. She ran really well over a mile at Doncaster when runner-up recently. That form looks strong. She ran to a TSR of 78 that day, so on her revised mark has not too much to improve which is likely for this lightly raced filly as she steps up to a much more suitable 10f trip. It’s Tom Marquand only ride on the day – a tip in itself.

Selection:
10pts win – Black Lotus + Affina @ 3.75/1 Sky

……..

4.30 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Yet to win on turf, Sir Jamie came close only one day ago at this very same venue over 7f. He was only beaten when a well handicapped 3-year old came storming home from the back off the field.

This three times AW winner steps up to a mile today, which is his preferred trip. He can race off the same mark and judged on his performance yesterday has a strong chance. He also ran to TSR or 51 yesterday. This additional furlong may unlock a bit more for this still progressive 5-year old gelding.

It’s an easier race too, as he drops down to class 6. He’ll bottle the start as he always does but that’s not a problem as he can settle at the back and in should get a clear run in this small field.

Selection:
10pts win – Sir Jamie @ 9/2 PP

Thursday Selections: June, 7th 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

5.20 Yarmouth: Class 6 Handicap, 1 mile

The 3 year old’s add spice to this open contest. Macho Guest is the one I prefer from the lot.

The son of Camacho did show little in three maiden starts, but with a run this season already under his belt he should strip race fit. Now stepping up to 1 mile for the first time off a very low opening mark Macho Guest looks dangerous.

Apprentice Jane Elliott claims valuable 5lb and has a strong record for trainer George Margarson.

Selection:
10pts win – Macho Guest @ 12/1 Sky

….

6.25 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 6f

Very competitive race where pace and positioning may become key. That worries me about my selection Manor Park, who was raw, green and to some extend clueless when winning a Windsor Handicap over 11.5f on handicap- & seasonal debut last month.

However, the way he was grinding it out regardless was impressive. He matched his opening mark with the time speed rating achieved that day. Stepping up in trip looks sure to suit with fast ground no issue whatsoever.

His revised handicap mark could easily underestimate him given the new trip and experience gained.

Selection:
10pts win Manor Park @ 7/1 VC

……..

2.10 Ripon: Class 5 Novice Stakes, 6f

I believe the odds-on favourite is bad value while Mark Johnston’s runner is a tasty price. MJ has a superb record with juveniles in Novice company, particularly if they drop in class.

Yellow Fire does drop significantly in class after a promising debut at Bath where he ran green and made too much early on. This form looks strong through the third who is a fair benchmark with a place behind a subsequent Listed winner.

Despite being a May foal, Yellow Fire looks big, strong and scopy. This easier 6f trip should suit him, though the draw away from the rails is a slight concern, in fairness.

Selection:
10pts win – Yellow Fire @ 4/1 WH

Monday Selections – 16th October 2017

dsc_0292

2.40 Yarmouth: Class 5 Nursery, 7f

Owen Burrows’ Mutafarrid appears to be potentially well handicap on his nursery debut. The Dark Angel colt ran well in his last two races in maiden company – in his second career start he used allot of energy from a wide draw to be up with the pace, yet he finished a good fourth in a hot race that worked out well.

Last time at Wolverhampton he missed the break, got bumped into right after and never settled over too sharp 6f. Still he finished with credit in fifth and this athletic type should enjoy the simpler experience that is 7f at Yarmouth.

Judged on collateral form the opening mark of 69 is more than fair and he should be a bit better than that, I reckon.

Selection:
10pts win – Mutafarrid @ 5/1 Bet365

……

2.50 Musselburgh: Class 2 Handicap, 7f

Big Tour is a progressive three year old colt with few miles on the clock. He won the last two in good fashion, though looked really home over 7f with a good pace on softish ground at Yarmouth last month.

He appears to be progressive and can easily have more to offer. A 6lb hike is reasonable but may not be enough to stop him.

The slight concern is the wide draw for a horse that likes to be close to the speed at a course where your chances rise and fall with track position. At the price I’m siding with him, nonetheless.

Selection:
10pts win – Big Tour @ 7/2 Skybet

……..

4.10 Yarmouth: Class 6 Handicap, 10f

Very weak contest and that opens the door for a surprise package. That could be handicap debutante My Name Is Jeff. He didn’t show an awful lot in three maiden starts, as you would expect. However he bumped into some decent horses along the way too.

This is way easier and ground and trip could suit perfectly. The dam was a sprinter but there is a bit stamina down the lines plus sire Mount Nelson has a fine track record over this trip with his offspring.

A lowly opening mark gives My Name Is Jeff a fair chance to improve dramatically from anything he has shown to date.

Selection: 
10pts win – My Name Is Jeff @ 12/1 Bet365

Tuesday Selections – 29th August 2017

DSC_8204-Pano

Ended last week with a bang – Teodoro made all to win easily at Yarmouth despite drifting out to 8/1. So broke even for the week in the end. Not a bad result given how badly it started.

Can things look brighter this week? Granted today is my birthday, here’s hoping for a big winner!

……

4.30 Ripon: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f

Monticello struggled the last two times, however a drop in class may help. He also tackles older horses with WFA allowance still an advantage I feel.

He’s won only twice in his career, over 7f, though showed strong performances over 10f in hot class Handicaps earlier this year. The drying ground should help too.

Sire Teofilo does extremely well at this track and trip, and the usually prominent racing style of Monticello can often be a bonus at Ripon.

Selection:
10pts win – Monticello @ 14/1 Skybet