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Betting

Friday Selections: 10th May 2024

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3.40 Chester: Class 2 Handicap, 2m2½f

Usually this wouldn’t be my cup of tea from a betting perspective but I feel Too Friendly is potentially too well handicapped today, to not have a good at a decent price, given the ground continues to dry out and could suit him incredibly well.

The 6-year-old gelding remains quite lightly raced on the flat, and with that in mind may have still a few pounds in hand before the handicapper gets the measure right.

The #8 isn’t an ideal place and he’ll have to be perfect out of the gates to avoid getting trapped wide. He can move forward, though, and I hope De Sousa in the saddle can have him settle a few lengths off the pace, with cover, not too wide off the fence, eventually.

Purely from a handicapping perspective, I seriously rate his most recent run on the flat: in March at Kempton, over 2 miles, the first time seen without a hurdle in front of him in nearly two years.

Back in 2021 Too Friendly was a decent flat performer, competing in some hot races, before changing yards and becoming a hurdler.

A five-time winner over hurdles, back in October 2023 he was still a fine 2nd behind the subsequent Christmas Hurdle runner-up. His most recent run in a class 2 Handicap Hurdle was rather disappointing, though.

However, right before that he returned to the flat and was an impressive winner at Kempton. He looked way too good for his rivals that day and has only been upped 4lb to a still, potentially, lenient mark of 89.

Especially over staying trips he remains completely unexposed. And the fact he overcame an awkward start and early keenness at Kempton, suggests there’s more to come still.

It remains to be seen how the race pans out today, whether he can be in a decent position with three furlongs to go. If he can be, I think he’s got the gears to be thereabouts.

10pts win – Too Friendly @ 14/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 3rd May 2024

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2.15 Musselburgh: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

This is a seriously weak contest. Only two horses truly stand out as serious win candidates.

Of course, favourite Kelpie Grey may well be able to defy a 5lb penalty. He ran to a strong speed rating the last time off a break and should enjoy the likely fast pace here.

At the same time he’s been far from prolific throughout his career and whether he has the gears on this better ground over this trip remains to be seen.

He’s one I’m happy to take on with Gobi Sunset, who himself could be a touch better over shorter 6 furlongs on turf. Nonetheless, he’s a winner over this trip on the sand and with the decent ground – likely to stay that way given the current forecast – he should be fine.

The gelding is possibly supremely well handicapped here, especially with a good 5lb claimer in the saddle. One can ignore the most recent run at Ayr over a wrong trip and class too hot, certainly in that combination.

It may, however, worked as run to put him right for this contest where he also drops down to class 6 for the first time off a dangerous mark. Gobi Sunset is more prolific on sand but has won twice on turf as well, and judged by his performances this winter, remains in good form.

His penultimate effort at Southwell, when third in a strong race that worked out well in the meantime, he was a significant eye catcher, as he did a lot in the first half of the race to overcome a wide draw.

Drawn in #1 this time, that won’t be the same issue, although the pace could be hot which most in the field enjoy being up with it. However, he could enjoy the inside ride, and a fair race to the line should ensure class is the deciding factor.

10pts win – Gobi Sunset @ 7/2

……

4.30 Musselburgh: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Another poor contest. Few appear well handicapped, certainly judged on more recent performances.

Tacitus has emerged as a tentative favourite over night, and that’s a shame because I hoped to get a better price for this gelding. He’s not one to put too much trust in, and clearly he’s not as prolific as his namesake.

But he’s got plenty going for himself today, and could have too much in the tank for this lot.

For one, Tacitus is down to his last winning mark, and back to a course and distance he was a desperately unfortunate runner-up last summer off a 4lb higher mark.

He had two runs on the sand after coming from a nice winter break. There was plenty to like about his his most recent run at Wolverhampton, in fact as he moved forward from a wide draw and was in the mix for a long enough time, without getting a hard ride.

He was 2lb wrong in the handicap, and clearly outclassed in the end. Down to 0-55 against some much poorer opposition, off his real handicap mark, he should be much more competitive.

The #7 draw is slightly wider than ideal here, but he has shown enough early speed in the past to ensure he can move forward to get into a decent position, that provides cover and isn’t too far off whoever leads.

10pts win – Tacitus @ 4/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 29th March 2024

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It’s already a few days ago, but hey, you’ve got to celebrate the winners. It was the first one I could cheer home in a while – granted I had about a handful of bets in the last half year.

Anyway, it was great to see Qitaal win rather comfortably in the end, despite a dramatic drift to 14/1 SP. I was stuck with my 7’s, but that’s no issue at all. Even that represented significant value in my book.

……..

2.40 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

Cephalus looks a seriously poor favourite in this race at such a short price (2/1 at time of writing). He’ll be held up from the #10 draw in a race without much pace and he’s got a bit to find on speed ratings as he’s turned out under a penalty.

The 5-year old improved dramatically over the last weeks and months, winning four and going close twice. This is a different proposition, though, especially off 81 in a race that won’t be run to suit him.

The way the race is likely going to shape, and with his love for the track, Shoot To Kill looks one who may steel this one from the front for Ireland and represents serious value in my mind.

He moved over to Ado McGuinness in early March and ran with plenty of courage in two subsequent starts, both times catching the eye and clearly proving there’s plenty of life in the seven-year-old gelding.

Those were hard races and that’s a bit of a concern. But at the same they may have put him right for this race. He was highly competitive and consistent prior moving to Ireland as well.

Shoot To Kill certainly loves it here at Lingfield. Check out his course record, peel back the first layer and you’ll find a lad who’s ran some huge performances from 7-10 furlongs at this venue not too long ago.

No doubt, his optimum is a mile over this course and distance, though. He won a class 5 Handicap over this CD back in September off 74, running to a 75 speed rating which he franked weeks later over 7 furlongs at the same venue when finishing a strong third.

That mile win looks better than bare form would suggest, given it was only a class 5. His current mark – 78 – with a 3lb claimer in the saddle, gives him a shout over this course and distance, though.

He won a class 3 Handicaps in the past here, and ran his three career-best speed ratings at Lingfield, the two highest over a mile. Taking into account that he looks to hit some good form, it’s not impossible to think he’s able to run to that sort of level again.

But maybe he doesn’t even have to be that good on Friday. The pace should favour those who are ridden forward and it’s unlikely to be overly hot.

Given that, Shoot To Kill should be easily able to overcome the #7 draw and should find himself in prime position as he slings around the final bend.

Shoot To Kill 10pts win – @ 13/1

……..

3.35 Newcastle: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

Not out of question that Cover Up, who’s bidding for a four-timer, can pull out more, even after a hefty 13lb hike for his most recent win at this venue, albeit over the minimum trip.

Though, moving up in trip is a question mark. The dam stayed a mile but her sole victory came over 5 furlongs. He ran a super 90 speed rating last time out. On balance, given he could get a nice lead into the finish as well given his draw and the likely pace, he’s a fair favourite – one that’s beatable, at the same time.

Batal Dubai looks well places from his #9 draw and given there isn’t too much pace competition, could enjoy the run of the race. He’s fairly handicapped, although hardly has much in hand. He always struggled so far to win once he hit the 90s.

Albasheer’s last two winning performances here at Newcastle were brilliant on speed ratings: 102 and 100 – that’s a Group horse. A 110 mark in this type of competitive handicap is also quite a steep task.

He looks well drawn and looks slightly overpriced. I have some question marks because that last huge effort only came a fortnight ago.

The one I feel who’s potentially quite well-handicapped in the context of this race is 7-year-old gelding Misty Grey.

The #5 draw gives him enough options to get a good, prominent position early on, tracking the pace, wherever it develops, given he has a bit of early speed as well.

He clearly showed a return to form in two runs earlier this month after he moved to the David O’Meara yard. The second of those runs came on the 9th of March, hence that hopefully is enough time to recover.

I felt both runs were eyecatching and warranted a slight upgrade, as much as they also suggested a mark off 96 might underestimate him at this point in his career.

At Wolverhampton in a 7f Listed race last time out Misty Grey had to give weight away to higher rated horses and it wasn’t ideal to concede first run to the eventual winner at 2f out, at the most crucial part of that race.

Days earlier at Newcastle, again over 7f, he pulled hard early on and basically tanked his way to the front. He travelled sweetly for a long time before coming under pressure and possibly also got ever so slightly impacted by a faller around the final furlong marker.

Both runs suggested he could do with a drop to stiff 6f…. hello Newcastle I hear you calling? This is his third run since a break and since moving to the David O’Meara yard and he should be primed what will only bis his second run over 6f in over a year – the last time he finished an excellent third in a hot Kempton Conditions race.

The grey gelding wasn’t rated so lowly in over three years, and as explained before, there is solid evidence based on the last two runs, that he’s hitting some strong form. At given prices he seems quite a bit overpriced.

Misty Grey – 10pts win @ 16/1

……..

4.40 Newcastle: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

It’s difficult not to like how Dear My Friend won his last three races since his return as a gelding and from wind operation. A changed horse, so to speak.

Four from four on the All-Weather now, and there s every chance he’s got still much more to offer. For all that he has to prove his lofty rating on speed ratings yet.

He may not have to do so here, as the pace falls right into his lap, if he wants it. He’s also a pretty fair price, at 7/2 currently, very much one I’d consider to back.

However, from a value perspective I just can’t look past Tempus. He’s not getting any younger and was beaten by My Dear Friend back in January. However the race and certainly pace scenario will play out differently this time, and so is the weights difference between the two.

Tempus is also drawn close to My Dear Friend, and may well track him all the way from his #2 draw. Usually also forward, he should equally enjoy the run of the race.

The handicapper has given him an opportunity as well. Dropped him to 102, despite three notable performances this year. He’s not been that low since winning a competitive Ascot Handicap in July 2022.

There is no question that Tempus remains in strong form, though, because he ran a joint career-best (and best on AW) speed rating at Kempton in January on his comeback run. He missed the break that day but finished very strongly as he kicked on nicely from 3f out in a good listed contest.

He fared best from those up with the pace subsequently at Newcastle when he was beaten by My Dear Friend eventually. Another strong performance. And was then a bit too keen when locked in a pace battle in a Listed race at Cagnes last month, where he was still ahead with only 1.5f to go, though.

I feel from a handicapping perspective and pace scenario Tempus got a significant chance to outrun his big price tag here.

10pts win – Tempus @ 23/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 22nd March 2024

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7.15 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

I’m more than happy to take on Glamourous Express who’s turned out under a penalty here after an impressive victory at Kempton last week.

Hugh Taylor seems sweet on this lad, and that’s something to be taken seriously. But off 67 today, over 6f, he’s vulnerable. He’s never ran a significant speed rating beyond the minimum trip to suggest he’s well-handicapped in these conditions.

Captain Vallo could be interesting if there’s a generous pace today. But better days may await for such scenario. Water Of Leith is one to fear in this grade. But at current prices I’ll take a punt on Dream Together off bottom weight.

This is his third run since coming back from a long enough break. He ran better than bare forms suggest in his two starts since then and showed a solid attitude, suggesting there’s life.

The pace scenario will suit today. He should be able to to just sit off The Gay Blade and hopefully can kick on from about 2f out. I can see a scenario play out where he could be hard to beg back with his low weight if he can get separation from the main pack.

Dream Together’s All-Weather record is poor. However, he ran 51 and 54 speed ratings last year over this course and distance. He’s allowed to run off 51 now, a career-lowest mark on sand.

That gives him every chance to outrun his price tag today, at the very least. He should be well placed when it matters most.

10pts win – Dream Together @ 10.5/1

…….

7.30 Dundalk: Handicap, 1m

Intriguing and rather competitive race. A bunch of these met a over the last weeks, hence plenty of collateral form exist, for what it’s worth.

I think not too many will be in this to win tonight, though. Shoot To Kill ran with plenty of promise on his debut for the McGuinness yard. He may find an easier race soon, is my feeling.

Rampage looks in good form and his finish here two weeks ago was noteworthy. He has a tough Irish Lincoln run in his legs, though.

Rockbury Lad impressed visually and on the clock over this CD two weeks ago. Betting suggests today isn’t his day.

Skontonovski will be in the mix, but doesn’t appear overly well-handicapped. Neither – certainly not over this trip -looks favourite Exquisite Acclaim, who is in strong form, but has to defy a high enough handicap mark as a result.

The standout for me in this field is the aptly named Not Forgotten. He caught the eye a number of the times this winter on the Dundalk polytrack.

He remains on the same 79 mark after a strong 3rd place effort two weeks ago over this course and distance.

As often before, he wasn’t the sharpest away from the gate but made rapid progress soon after, and that may cost on the day vital fuel that was missing in the final furlong.

The 4-year-old travelled notably well, though, and made smooth progress from 4f out. If only he could get out of the gates a tiny bit better and perhaps keep his focus in the closing stages.

Good news, the visor is on. That appears the right move and could help him to find the necessary couple of pounds improvement tonight. He’s generally still low enough mileage in handicaps to hope for a little bit better.

Off a 79 handicap mark there is plenty of room for one or two more wins in him, given his profile.

10pts win – Not Forgotten @ 4/1

Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham 2024: Gold Cup Preview

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Twelve months ago I was very much in camp Bravemansgame and adamant that Galopin Des Champs isn’t nowhere near as good as the hype surrounding him.

In 2024 I’m no longer in camp Bravemansgame. It’s obvious by now that he’s not the same horse that finished a brilliant runner-up last year. He could still run well, but he’ll have to improve on anything he’s shown in three starts this season so far, to be in with a realistic shout to win the race – which looks a deeper renewal, too.

Galopin Des Champs? Can’t have him, once again. Races aren’t run and won on spreadsheets. But the fact remains the reigning champion has rarely convinced on speed ratings, with the Gold Cup a significant outlier across 17 career runs in my book.

Saying that, if taken last years Gold Cup victory at face value, the 7-year old gelding appears even more unbeatable a year later, especially after two visually impressive wins in his last two starts. But is he?

He was beaten twice after the Gold Cup and looked a mere mortal, unlike previously. The two subsequent visually stunning performances came in races that were run to suit him perfectly, I believe. Based on speed ratings they haven’t been impressive at all, though.

I’m left with the impression that a strongly run Gold Cup, on testing ground, will see Galopin Des Champs vulnerable to a stronger stayer. This scenario may play out this Friday. If he’s ridden handily, as he was the last few times, close to what could be a pretty good pace, on soft enough ground, he could burn through his energy reserves earlier than expected.

That poses the question: who’s the strong stayer good enough to beat the red hot favourite?

The ground may well have turned against Hewick. He may not even run, if trainer Hanlon is following through on his words leading up to the Festival. But I’m not sure he’d be good enough to win, in any case.

Corach Rambler, in contrast, is sure to run and to finish strongly. The Grand National hero and multiple course winner should have a proper shout, I reckon. The race could pan out perfectly for the 10-year-old.

It’s hard not be drawn to his sensational victories in the Ultima Chase, especially given the way he’s done it and the depth of the 2023 renewal.

He may need to improve a bit, though, given this is the classiest race he ever contested. Not impossible that he can raise his game in these circumstances.

But he’s a 10-year-old. He’s not exactly unexposed. How much more improvement is there to come?

I’m still trying to work out L’homme Presse. Undoubtably a talented individual, threatened to progress to the level required to be considered a proper Gold Cup horse. He’s got course form, and looked strong over shorter 2m 4f on his reappearance. Not so good the next time and I remain not fully convinced that he’s quite good enough in this grade.

Fastorslow should be the key rival to Galopin Des Champs, given he beat him twice at Punchestown in the last 12 months. However: those wins came in different circumstances.

Punchestown in April, at the end of the season, over 3 miles on yielding ground, and 2m 3.5f in the John Durkan at the start of a season, are hardly comparable to the Cheltenham Gold Cup, in my mind.

The supposedly “natural order” was assumed in the Irish Gold Cup in February this year. Fastorslow jumped well and ran an excellent race, but was unable to quicken and follow Galopin Des Champs’ acceleration, ultimately.

It’s clearly possible that the Gold Cup trip in combination with a good pace can bring out additional improvement. For all that, on speed ratings Fastorslow hasn’t convinced yet, and all those points combined make him a short enough price.

Price is everything: by pure process of elimination I’ve come to the final conclusion there’s only horse offering value in the betting and upside form wise.

That one horse is Gerri Colombe. The eight-year-old gelding, trained by Gordon Elliott, remains low mileage and has a strong 9-7-2 record under rules. He was only beaten at the Festival last year and when last seen in the Savills Chase.

Hitting a flat spot before the run-in cost him the race in the Brown Advisory twelve months ago. He stayed on incredibly strongly and one or two strides after the line hit the front. Would, could, should….

But it’s clear the step up to the Gold Cup distance will suit this strong stayer tremendously. That he can finish with zest and do it in a Grade 1 was evident when he won the Champion Chase at Down Royal thanks to an incredibly gutsy performance.

I’m prepared to forgive the below-par Leopardstown run, when runner-up behind GDC in his latest start. Something looked amiss that day.

If one is prepared to ignore that run, and believes he’ll have benefitted from a break since then – which his record fresh indicates – it’s hard to look past Gerri Colombe at the current prices. He’s got to improve, but has the profile of a horse who’s capable of doing so, especially with conditions most likely to suit.

10pts win – Gerri Colombe @ 10.5/1

Edit: I should have checked the market before sending this post. Having written it earlier today and having backed Gerry Colombe in the morning I missed that Hewick is out and the market reacted. GC is now about 8/1 (9.4 on some exchanges).

Still a more than fair price in my view, as I maintain he remains one of the prime contenders in the race. Though, I’m always aiming for transparency, so just thought to make this clear when having quoted a price in my preview that’s not a true reflection at his point any longer.

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Friday Selections: 10th November 2023

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6.20 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Competitive affair. Comedian Leader looks possibly overpriced back over this course and distance but the way the pace shapes and the new headgear combination is a worry for me.

Favourite Capuchinero won last time out with a bit in hand. A 5lb penalty makes life much harder, though. She never won off such a high mark and has to improve on speed ratings a handful of pounds too.

Haworth Star is the one most intriguing. Drawn wide, perhaps away from where the race develops in a slowly run race isn’t ideal one would think.

But making a move on that far side from a wide draw seems not too detrimental at Newcastle at all, so possibly negates conventional wisdom.

In any case, the lightly-raced gelding shaped like he’s significantly ahead of his mark when third at Wolverhampton last time out. The handicapper took notice and gave him a 2lb rise for the effort. Probably not enough.

That day he wasn’t quite the sharpest early on from gate 7, pulled quite hard in a tight and compact field as he tried to settle riding against the inside rail off the pace.

Yet, approaching the home straight he was still on the bridle, although he equally had a lot to do from the back of the field. He made strong progress, finding gaps as they appeared, without ever getting a smooth and clear run.

He appeared awkward and possibly intimidated in a tight finish deep inside the final furlong. Though, it was quite tight and the race was over at that stage no matter what, I reckon. Haworth Star also managed to run to a 61 speed rating, despite in less than ideal circumstances here.

Big odds suggested there weren’t high hopes riding on his back that day or eleven days earlier on handicap debut. The improvement from that Leicester run off a small break as well, was noteworthy in its own right.

Today is an easier race. This is only his third run in handicap company. This straight track may suit better than the ever turning Wolverhampton. He finished the strongest last time out, despite meeting trouble. So the stiff 7f could be exactly the test he wants, as long as they don’t crawl, which is a risk, truth told.

10pts win – Haworth Star @ 11/2

Betting

Friday Selections: 3rd November 2023

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5.15 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Newyorkstateofmind drops down to the minimum trip today, at Newcastle, off a fair mark – this looks like an ideal test with a solid pace expected, to help him settle and finish strongly.

The 6-year-old gelding is fully exposed, however, has ran only once over this course and distance, earlier this year, and finished a strong third off 3lb higher in a race that wasn’t run at a rapid clip.

His last two runs over 6 furlongs were highly encouraging, though, and he seems to hit strong form. Todays race is competitive but on speed ratings he’s the one I have come out on top, if he runs to form.

Especially after two eye-catching efforts in the last two weeks over 6 furlongs.

At Lingfield, when last seen, he couldn’t quite get to the pace early on and settled near midfield, though he also showed signs of keenness. A good pace and shorter trip should suit today, hence.

He then made strong progress from 3f out and made a gigantic effort toward the dreaded inside rail at Lingfield to even contest the lead over 1f out, before inevitably getting tired.

He was well-fancied that day, perhaps also related to the huge effort prior to it, at Wolverhampton. With that in mind, there is a danger that he can’t run to the same level a third time in this short pace of time.

But I feel the pace, the trip and the stiff finish will suit him really well, being also drawn in and around the pace, he can then track, and granted a clear run, should be able to finish strongly.

10pts win – Newyorkstateofmind @ 7/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 27th October 2023

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Guiteau won well last night. Brilliantly executed ride by Oisin Murphy, who must have read my preview beforehand, as it turned exactly that way – he made most of his draw and the lack of early pace, moved forward, and had enough in the tank to fend off the odds-on favourite.

Sometimes it works out that way. More often than not it doesn’t. A solid confidence booster, nonetheless. Two winners within a week now – what an unknown feeling that is… or was.

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8.15 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

The likely hot pace in this race should ensure this is going to be a fair contest over the minimum trip over a CD that often can turn into a “grab the lead and it’s game over”.

There’s probably too much pressure on any of the early leaders today, and that may set it up for someone who’s tracking the pace without getting involved in the early tussle for the lead.

No question the race is competitive, but that helps provide a healthy market with value on offer. One I’m waiting for a handful of months to back is Murbih, who’s certainly too big in the betting, if in it to win it.

Being mindful of the fact the gelding has an entry on Monday at Newcastle, a CD he achieved a career-best back in March.

However, I feel Murbih is well-suited to Wolverhampton, as his record reads 5-1-3, and in some of those races he was quite unfortunate not to finish closer than he did. He usually runs well here.

In addition, the 5-year-old has been in excellent recent form. His latest run earlier this month over this CD was a huge performance. A strongly-run race, he was positioned in midfield, travelled strongly into the home straight. He got past one of the early pace setters approaching the line, however he was also beaten by two horses from off the pace, who were ridden with more restraint.

His two runs prior at Wolverhampton warranted an upgrade due to different circumstances also. In any case, he’s in excellent form, although, on the surface, perhaps also in the grip of the handicapper.

Murbih is down to a 67 handicap mark now, though. A modest reduction from last time-out. He’s not been this low for a while, though, and ran seriously well off higher, including achieving strong speed ratings this year.

And with that in mind I do believe he’s handicapped to win, also keeping in mind the way this race could shape: the #1 will give Murbih the opportunity to let the pace setters from wider draws storm ahead, and he can slot in just behind on the inside saving ground today.

In an ideal world he gets the gap as they turn home and then picks them off to win by half a lengths.

Obviously, he’s a frustrating sort who often runs well and doesn’t win all that often. But this looks a great opportunity, for a horse in form, with a good draw, a lovely mark at his preferred course and distance.

10pts win – Murbih @ 17/2

Betting

Friday Selections: 20th October 2023

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If Redcar makes it as far the third race on their card today, then I’d be really keen on High Opinion to outrun his price tag.

The gelding was fancied all season but hasn’t quite delivered the goods. He caught the eye on a number of occasions, though, striking me as somewhat unfortunate to remain on a single career-win.

Clearly, judged on speed ratings he must be given a more than fair chance to change the current state today: now down to a 57 handicap mark, with the assistance of solid 3lb claiming Andrew Breslin in the saddle.

He ran 54+ speed ratings four times this year, and arguably his best performance at Ripon (56) came in a hot race where he was desperately unlucky not get a good deal closer – if only for a clear run.

The subsequent performances were a good deal better than they may appear on paper. High Opinion confirmed his wellbeing and was possibly just looking for a bit of help from the handicapper, a slightly easier race and a flat straight five with cut in the ground.

The 4-year-old is 1/14 throughout his career, hence one who often finds trouble. Today could be an ideal opportunity, though. His career-best runs came over 5 furlongs and deep ground.

He’s right drawn beside the likely pace, so in an ideal world, unless he badly misses the start, should get a nice lead into the final part of the race.

A possible negative is if they don’t go a solid gallop. High Opinion has tendencies to pull and a possible pace scenario leaves space for a somewhat slowly run race.

I highly rate the dangers of Northcliff, who despite his 0/19 record could have a class edge here, as well as Rajmeister who enjoys these conditions and won off the same mark earlier this year.

If High Opinion would be the one of the shorter prices he was in most his runs this season I’d probably give it a miss today. He’s not a winner, finds trouble, and may end up pulling his chances away. However, he’s simply a superb price, that compensates more than enough for those negatives, because he’s clearly handicapped to win, if all goes well.

10pts win – High Opinion @ 10/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 18th August 2023

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Ideal Guest was a winner on Wednesday – thankfully, finally, one that did what was expected. There’ve been some lean weeks recently. As the gelding romped home at 5/1 SP, half the price I got in the morning, it brought solace to my beaten up betting soul.

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4.00 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

This looks a seriously competitive race for this class and track and this time of the year. Even more so as I’ve got four eyecatchers lining up also.

Nonetheless, the one who does stand out as potentially enjoying this easier grade is 3-year-old gelding Paddy’s Day.

He ran in better grade the last few times, and did so without disgracing himself. In fact, he caught the eye, a number of times for various reasons.

His last two runs especially suggested he’s in pretty good form, albeit finding the opposition a bit too good, still.

Last time at Haydock I also felt Paddy’s Day wasn’t ideally drawn on the far side because race and pace developed away from him to the most part.

He was going okay for a long time, though, and in fact ran the fasted mid-section, yet when it mattered most he struggled to get a clean run through due to horses shifting right in front of him in the closing stages multiple times.

It’s debatable how much of a difference that made as he may have been done by that time anyway, but at the very least he was a theoretical chance to finish closer denied.

Paddy’s Day drops down to 75 and could be dangerous in this easier race, given he showed some promise in the past, including a class 5 Lingfield win off his current mark back in March.

On the negative side, he’s yet to run a speed rating that suggests he’s better than class 5 and the #1 can bring its own dangers.

10pts win – Paddy’s Day @ 9/1