Tag Archives: Friday

Friday Selections: August, 31st 2018

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4.25 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Leigh’s Law won a shade cozily on handicap debut a fortnight ago. Making all from the front, he ran his rivals into the ground and was able to pull out more and more when the tough questions were asked.

The travelled really well in what was described as good to soft ground, so today’s conditions shouldn’t pose a problem.

A 3lb hike in the mark is fair enough. Here’s hoping the small step up in trip help Leigh’s Law, as he seemed t keep galloping strongly in the closing stages. Natural improvement on what will only be his fifth career start could see him overcoming this task.

Selection:
10pts win – Leigh’s Law @ 14/1 MB

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Friday Selections: August, 24th 2018

Wet Dundalk Polytrack

5.45 Chelmsford: Class 6 Nursery, 5f

Bottom weight Sister’s Act sparks my interest here. This Equiano filly has shown early speed in her few starts before, totally unfancied though, it wasn’t a surprise so her finish flat.

She now makes her handicap debut off a low mark in a not overly competitive contest switching to the All-Weather which should suit her better on pedigree. Her mother is a winner on the sand as daddy Equiano has a sublime record on the All-Weather with his 2yo offspring over sprint trips, particular on left handed tracks.

Interestingly, trainer Peter Hedger’s record with juveniles on the All-Weather is also quite excellent (small sample size, but fits in well with his general performance in AW Handicaps).

With that in mind there is every chance Siser’s Act gets her act together today.

Selection:
10pts win – Sister’s Act @ 16/1 VC

Friday Selections: August, 3rd 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

Three on the bounce! What rare joy to find a winner on three consecutive days – Land Force (7/2) clearly stayed the trip as hoped and won the Richmond Stakes in commanding style under a class ride by Ryan Moore.

……

5.50 Newmarket: Class 5 Handicap, 12f

It was a disappointing handicap debut for Floria Tosca the other day after she showed a bit of promise in three maiden starts. I was keen on her the last time as I thought that judged by her second start at Chelmsford she could be well treated off her opening mark. That form worked out incredibly well and her subsequent performance at Bath looked more than decent too.

A fortnight ago the race then didn’t quite worked out the way as hoped. They were crawling for most parts, Floria Tosca was left flat footed over 4f out but then made quite a bit of stylish progress to lead briefly over 2f out. She didn’t see it out eventually and that becomes a bit of a habit now, which is a concern.

Hopefully it is more greenness than anything else. She is bred for the job so upped to 12f may suit. There should be a fair pace on the cards today and it is very winnable race. Dropped 3lb to a mark off 70 plus interesting young apprentice Marco Ghiani in the saddle who claims another 7lb means the filly must enter calculations here.

Selection:
10pts win – Floria Tosca @ 11/1 PP

Friday Selections: July, 20th 2018

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5.35 Newmarket: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f

For all that favourite Gravina has achieved up until now she is simply an awful price. Ryan Moore in the saddle gives the filly a fair chance, no doubt, but I struggle to see why she is 11/8.

Luca Cumani’s filly Floria Tosca appeals much more. Bred for the job, she makes her handicap debut after three more or less decent qualifying runs. Judged by her second start at Chelmsford, though, she could be well treated off her opening mark.

That form worked out incredibly well but she couldn’t follow-up at Bath when stepping up to 11.5f. Tracking a slightly too fast pace she didn’t quite see out the trip in the end, but her 3rd place finish looks good form regardless, judged through the winner of the race.

Now back over 10f on handicap debut with the French master Gerald Mosse in the saddle I feel she has a bit more to offer than the 73 rating she’s been given.

Selection:
10pts win – Floria Tosca @ 9/2 PP

……….

8.45 Newmarket: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Fieldsman is on an incredibly long losing run and doesn’t seem to get closer to change this on the face of his form. Looking a bit deeper into his races this year it looks more like that he ran quite consistently well most of the time, however.

His runs at Doncaster or Redcar in June give him a fairly decent chance to go really close in this race here, I feel. A mark off 68 is something he clearly is up to these days, possibly a bit more than that.

He ran to RPR’s of this sort or higher on six of his eight starts this year and with no three year old in this contest but with the assistance of top man Jim Crowley on the back may finally get his head in front again.

Selection:
10pts win – Fieldsman @ 12/1 WH/PP/VC

Friday Selection: July, 13th 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

6.10 Chepstow: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

The two market leaders seem head and shoulders above the rest of the field, however there’s real concern over the trip for Air Of York, while it remains to be seem whether Nazzaa has the speed on fast ground dropping to a mile.

That means it could be worth to side with one of the other three. Four year old Alqalsar offers the most upside theoretically, but showed nothing this year after a promising campaign last season and his attitude has to be questioned.

The two veterans in the field, Living Leader and Peak Storm are of high interest to me, given their featherweight. Living Leader with Hollie Doyle in the saddle is by far the more intriguing individual having some solid form to his name while getting a big chance by the handicapper.

Peak Storm on the other hand hasn’t ran a good race in nearly two years. That says, he he has quite a good record over this trip at this track and dropped so far in the weights that if there’s still any sort of appetite for racing left he could be incredibly dangerously weighted now.

He drops back to a mile here at Chepstow, into a race he won back in 2015. The betting suggests there is zero expectations, but the booking of promising apprentice Andre Beslin, who claims 7lb, makes Peak Storm an interesting contender today.

Selection:
10pts win – Peak Storm @ 40/1 PP

Friday Selections: July, 6th 2018

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4.40 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 6f

This looks an ideal opportunity for handicap debutant Saroog to follow on from his excellent maiden win at Goodwood last month. He travelled strongly into the race and finished off a rival he had to give plenty of weight to who is a subsequent winner.

Saroog has fine form in his book with a couple of placed efforts earlier this year. A close runner-up behind Count Octave in April, who subsequently wasn’t disgraced in pattern races, showed there is potential.

An opening mark off 85 appears more than fair and leaves room for improvement. The trip and ground seems to suit. This lightly raced son of Nathanial could easily develop into a nice staying prospect.

Selection:
10pts win – Saroog @ 10/3 WH

Friday Selections: June, 15th 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

4.50 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 10f

Bottom weight Kabrit looks to have got in lightly here. He’s got three runs under his belt, the two this season didn’t look to shabby. He was chasing a strong pace on either occasion, proving still a bit raw and green.

Likely to improve in handicaps, he remains with potential particularly of a lowly 65 handicap mark. I feel this opening rating does underestimate the ability of this strong Mastercraftsman colt.

Selection:
10pts win – Babrit @ 11/2 GB

……

7.30 Chepstow: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Top weight Operative has been labeled an “unreliable type” by Timeform. I disagree. Operative has been half of his life starts in the money – 11 of 22 starts. That isn’t unreliable. That is rather reliable, in my book.

Truth is, the five-year old gelding’s form this year reads unreliable: 10-2-7, though it isn’t so much taken circumstances into account.

Operative had no chance on his seasonal debut at Nottingham; hampered at the start, wall of horses in front, hampered in the final furlong, yet wasn’t far away in the end. He ran a strong race finishing second subsequently here at Chepstow over 6f, bumping into a tremendously well handicapped winner.

It’s true, Operative hasn’t done anything over 7f yet. He was again well beaten two weeks ago over CD. That says he did so on rain softened ground. His other two starts over this trip give indication it may be too far. I still remain optimistic, given fast ground today can be a help and he looked like running on well on his penultimate start over a furlong shorter.

Operative also drops down to class 5 for the first time this season. He ran well in a better grade twice this season – this today is a much easier assignment. He may not see out the trip, and we can put that to bed at the end of this day; until then I believe firmly that Operative is tremendously overpriced.

Selection:
10pts win – Operative @ 14/1 PP