Tag Archives: topspeed

Eyecatchers #10 2022

A list of horses that caught my eye during the last seven days of racing. These individuals look ready to win a race sooner rather than later given the right conditions.

Wooders Dream
27/05/22 – 1.35 Brighton:

Tracked the pace in a good position, started to move at the cutaway on the inside rail but was kept in by the front-running and eventual winning horse right to the end. Possibly would have won with a clear run.

Only the second handicap start. One can ignore the 7f performance earlier this month. 6 furlongs, ideally on fast ground, will see the best of her.

She ran to topspeed 59 here. Closely matched with her 61 official rating. Given she could have won with a clear run and additional improvement far from impossible she could possibly have a few pounds in hand. Nonetheless I wait until she drops below a 60 rating when she meets optimum conditions.

Race Replay

Igotatext
27/05/22 – 3.05 Chepstow:

Traveled at the back of the field, outpaced from three furlongs out, looked bit awkward in the final two furlongs, most likely didn’t enjoy this track but ran on quite well.

Trip too sharp. Needs 6 furlongs. Wouldn’t rule out that he gets 7 furlongs if they ever tried. Was an expensive £165,000 purchase in summer 2020 after an exciting debut win but has never fulfilled the promise. Changed hands for merely £11k earlier this year. This was the debut for the Adrian Wintle yard.

He won twice up until now, on the All-Weather and turf, running to topspeeds of 65, 68 and 69. I’d be interested when he goes back up in trip and ideally see a reduction of the mark below 68 plus a drop in grade. A return to All-Weather would be also interesting.

Race Replay

Sharrabang
27/05/22 – 2.20 Carlisle:

Was up with the pace early on, disputed lead as part of a trio. Started to lose position from 2 furlongs out as race heated up, but also got pushed inside by rival horse and squeezed. Bit short of room over 1f from home again, lost momentum and couldn’t find it again. This should be strong form for this grade.

The minimum trip on fast ground was never to suit entirely. He needs 6 furlongs, despite a win over 5f last year – but that came on soft ground – and stays up to 7f on fast ground too and acts well on the All-Weather.

Has fallen significantly in his mark but may recapture some form now. Ran well a number of times last season. Ran top topspeed 50 and 52, was competitive of marks in the low 50’s and could take advantage of a 46 rating with the right conditions now.

Race Replay

End Zone
27/05/22 – 6.30 Pontefract:

Prominent from good draw, chased the pace. In a good position turning for home but looked bit flat footed 1.5 furlongs from home. Short of room at the final furlong marker. Lost momentum. Impressive how he regained it to finish strongly in third.

Seemingly finding back some solid form. This was a strong performance I believe. He comes down again to a mark he can win from. Has ran to topspeed 71 on turf but best form comes on the All-Weather.

Would like to see him back on the sand, especially if his mark slips to 70 or lower. He ran topspeed 74 and 77 back in November and this most recent run suggests he is not far off that level right now. Ran at Thirsk in the meantime this week – 11/12 finish.

Race Replay

Tar Heel
27/05/22 – 9.00 Pontefract:

Never looked comfortable here at Ponti. Hang to the left badly on multiple occasions throughout the race, including in the home straight which meant he couldn’t land a blow.

Obviously had issues as his significant fall in the ratings demonstrate. However, he looked to be better than the bare form here.

Clearly needs a straight track and cut in the ground. Won in Ireland and produced solid runs over minimum trip and 6 furlongs in those conditions.

Massive performance last time out at Ayr off big weight in class 6 over 6 furlongs in soft conditions, getting a bump right after the start and racing inefficiently without cover on the outside away from the rail for the most part, finishing 2nd miles clear of the rest.

Will need monitoring for his mark and conditions. Worth to wait for the right day.

Race Replay

Music Society
28/05/22 – 4.05 Haydock:

Tracked the fast pace, started move from 2.5 furlongs out, took lead and kicked on over 1.5 furlongs from home. Got a gap on the field but tired inside the final 100 yards and was caught by two runners finishing strongly from off the pace.

This was huge performance given the solid pace he tracked and the big move from about halfway onwards. proper sign of life after three poor showings this season.

Down to excellent mark again. Won off 79 last June, running to topspeed 83. Clearly close to that form. A slightly less aggressive ride will see him more than capable of winning. Has form on soft but ideally I like to see decent ground, 6 furlongs and a track where his usual more prominent racing style holds up well. Perhaps a drop in class can be beneficial too.

Race Replay

Key Look
28/05/22 – 3.39 Catterick:

One of the slower starters, settled in rear, travelling okay, but still only one rival behind turning for home. Made excellent progress on the inside in the home straight until short of room 15 furlongs from home: lost momentum, had to regain full effort. Finished nicely under hands and heels giving impression there was more left in the tank.

Ran well a number of times in defeat in recent weeks. Down to her last winning mark off 60 which came in her final start in 2021 after a season of fine progress.

Ran to topspeed 62 on the All-Weather and 59 on turf last year. Looks in fine form, but ideally will get some additional assistance from the handicapper before getting involved. 58 or lower and certainly a good draw if racing around a turn.

Race Replay

Libertus + Lord Gorgeous
30/05/22 – 4.30 Lingfield:

Libertus saw his path forward blocked early on, as a consequence boxed in on the inside. Travelled much the best but had to delay his move. Sharply switched to the middle of the track for a clear run, giving ground away to the eventual winner who had first run.

Handicap debut – probably wins another day. A mark off 67 looks potentially underestimating him; granted the handicapper doesn’t react harshly after this fine effort.

Full-brother to solid Lajatico. Probably best suited to decent or fast ground. A drop to the minimum trip wouldn’t be an issue I reckon.

Lord Gorgeous was awkwardly away as so often. He was caught wide without a lot of cover and away from the rail where the eventual winner who always travelled prominently came from. he travelled very strongly to 1.5 furlongs from home until fading in the closing stages.

The way he travelled here you’d have never guessed he was 80/1. He’s got obvious temperamental issues. However he has talent as he showed as a juvenile. Clearly lost his way and the switch of yards and to the UK hasn’t really helped yet.

However, there was a glimmer of hope form wise when 3rd at Wolverhampton in February. He’s one to monitor for market and jockey booking any time he races over the minimum trip. He’s capable of winning over 5 furlongs, on the All-Weather or on turf, possibly with a bit of ease in the ground.

Race Replay

Pure Dreamer
30/05/22 – 6.10 Windsor:

Quite badly hampered early on, nonetheless travelled smoothly. Had to wait for racing room, moved into the open approaching the final furlong and got upside the long-term leader. Eventually won it a shade cozily in my view.

This was his third win on the bounce. Still ran to topspeed 83 off a 80 mark here, despite not having a perfect race and despite the trip potentially on the sharp side. Has more to offer if moving up in trip. Would love to see him over a mile.

Looks a galloping type with a significant stride lengths. Would imagine he doesn’t want it any faster than good. Need to see what a the handicapper does after this but could be a mid-90 horse over a mile.

Race Replay

Raydoun
01/06/22 – 6.05 Ripon:

Slowly away, as a consequence trailed the field. Tried to make progress from over two furlongs out, having to pass the entire field. Didn’t find a clear run through, short of room on multiple occasions. Finished nicely under hands and heels.

Unlucky last time out too when bumped at the start and hampered in the middle of the race. Can find trouble due to his racing style. Tends to be slowly away from the gate.

Looks exposed on the surface of his form but clearly in form to win. Won off 66, excellent runner-up off 69 running to topspeed 67. Any assistance from the handicapper will be very welcome, though. Probably doesn’t want it fast. I’d be really intrigued on good to soft.

Race Replay

Nibras Again
01/06/22 – 8.10 Ripon:

Travelled strongly throughout, still on the bridle approaching the final furlong marker. Badly squeezed at that moment, continued to be short of room with little room to maneuver right to the end, and just as he tries to go through the tiniest of gaps in the last 100 yards the door shuts again.

Seasonal reappearance after a break since October. Ran well of marks in the 70s last season, was beaten a neck and shoulder off 73 and 75. Down to a mark of 69 now, he looks weighted to win.

His very best comes on proper fast ground over the minimum trip. Even though e’s an eight-year old now, he clearly retains an appetite for sprinting.

Race Replay

Stone Circle
31/05/22 – 5.29 Yarmouth:

Travelled very strongly approaching the two furlong marker. Lacked an instant kick and tired gradually, finishing 3rd. Possibly disappointing after it looked he’d come with a winning move.

Seven furlongs with ease in the ground perhaps stretches his stamina. Plus he possibly did too much in the early sections of the race. This was nonetheless a clear return to form after he fell a long way in the mark over the last year, having ran to topspeed 57 here.

He’s rated 60 now, a long way below his best and certainly better than that if on song. Showed glimpses last season still; should be highly competitive if dropping down to 6 furlongs again with a bit of cut in the ground. I definitely want to see the word “soft” in the going description.

Race Replay

Special Times
02/06/22 – 2.45 Leicester:

Chased the pace for most of the race. Outpaced from three furlongs out but stuck to the task. Was one paced when a bit tight around half a furlong out, finished solid enough where those from back of the field dominated the placings.

Showed a bit of ability in maiden races and caught the eye the way she travelled lto, but clearly trips were too short and was saved for Handicaps. Should improve for a step up in trip to 10 furlongs. The Dam won over 11.5 furlongs in Germany.

Race Replay

Oaks Friday Selections: 3rd June 2022

4.30: Group 1 Epsom Oaks, 1m 4f

On paper this years Oaks looks not a brilliant renewal, albeit a wide open one, with plenty of potential improvers for the Oaks distance. With that in mind I struggle to warm to short-priced favourite Emily Upjohn.

I understand why she’s well fancied today. Her Musidora victory was impressive. As a daughter of Sea The Stars she appears more than likely to stay the trip and it’s equally reasonable to assume she can improve for her fourth career run.

But she has to. The York performance was only worth a 95 topspeed rating. Solid but doesn’t scream 13/8 favourite. She may well take this crucial next step and can progress to the level the market generally assumes she’ll be capable of running to.

At the same time this can be said about a number of other fillies in this field full of likely improvers. Whether that’s Cheshire Oaks winner Thoughts Of June (quite appropriately named), stable mate Tuesday – a full-sister to 2016 Oaks heroine Minding, or Trial Stakes winner Nashwa. I could make a case for half the field.

But the two fillies that caught my eye more than anybody else – and I can’t split them – are Concert Hall and the only Godolphin entry With The Moonlight.

It’s no surprise that a full-sister to previous Oaks winner Was should feature highly on any short-list. Hence I am seriously surprised to see Concert Hall available at incredibly generous odds – I feel.

I was interested in her for the Irish 2000 Guineas, but it turned out the drop in trip didn’t really suit her. She didn’t posses the speed needed and got badly outpaced from over three furlongs out. But, crucially, she ran on strongly to finish 3rd eventually.

Perhaps it wasn’t the deepest Guineas field, nonetheless, the fact she was able to finish so strongly over an inadequate trip is noteworthy. Aiden O’Brien mentioned beforehand the filly thrives on racing and the Curragh outing would be a stepping stone towards Epsom.

In that light it’s even more significant that she won on her seasonal reappearance at Navan in the Listed Salsabil Stakes – form that looks rock solid. She gave the impression that she wouldn’t mind an additional couple of furlongs that day.

Therefore the Oaks trip looks a good match. Whether she handles the track is a different matter. She clearly has Oaks written all over and with a solid draw should be up there when it matters in my view.

With The Moonlight isn’t quite as clear-cut if it comes to stamina for the Oaks distance. Her pedigree points more towards middle-distance 10 furlongs. And yet, the way she finished at Newmarket was so impressive, giving the impression she could stretch out to 12 furlongs. And certainly giving the impression of a seriously talented filly.

I loved everything about that performance. It’s noteworthy also for the fact because that day she achieved the fasted topspeed rating on offer in the Oaks field.

Whether she can translate this speed to Epsom is the key question. As a full-sister to Group 1 winning Dream Castle she will certainly have the class. Her striding patterns, as far as available to me, give the indication that she has a fair chance to see out the trip, though.

Perhaps she will be ridden with a little bit more restraint today than at Newmarket. If she settles well, it should give William Buick plenty of options how to ride the race, given she possesses a lot of cruising speed, that is crucial at Epsom in my view.

Both fillies, With The Moonlight and Concert Hall appear seriously overpriced in the market in my book.

5pts win – With the Moonlight @ 14/1
5pts win – Concert Hall @ 13.5/1

……………

7.16 Doncaster: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

This looks like the ideal race I had in mind for Golden Apollo to get his head in front again. Since his eye catching run at Thirsk he ran another fine race at York in a big handicap over 7 furlongs where he got badly hampered.

He drops down to 6 furlongs, is three pounds lower in the mark than at Thirsk and runs in a wide open class 4 contest. The favourite may well be on the up and could be able to defy his increased mark – Golden Apollo is at this stage of his career vulnerable to any unexposed improving sort.

But at the same time he’s dangerously well handicapped in my view, given his wellbeing is confirmed.

The golden years are obviously behind the 8-year-old but he still performed of marks in the 80s last year and also ran to topspeed 84 when runner-up in a hot Redcar Handicap.

He’s been a shade unlucky a number times too in the meantime, including the last two; as a results his mark is reduced all the time. This looks an ideal opportunity to strike.

10pts win – Golden Apollo @ 9/1

……….

7.37 Goodwood: Class 3 Handicap, 6f

I was very taken with Kimngrace the last time at Sandown when she was seriously unlucky over the minimum trip. Today she steps up to 6 furlongs, which should be the perfect distance for this exciting and potentially well handicapped filly.

At Sandown after a steadied start she settled in rear of the field. She made some smooth progress from over three furlongs out but was stuck behind a bunch of horses and a clear passage denied until very late. She finished well when a bit of racing room opened up in the closing stages.

The winner made all from the front, the runner-up and third raced close to the pace too. Given these circumstances this was a big run on what was Kimngrace’s seasonal reappearance. The form is seriously strong as well.

She looks a filly open to considerable improvement, possibly more so now stepping up to 6 furlongs again. When last seen in 2021 she won a Maiden race at Haydock over 6f and looked at home over the trip. That particular form worked out well with the runner-up having ran a huge race in the Fred Darling Stakes this season.

10pts win – Kimngrace @ 10/3

………

7.51 Doncaster: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

Gibside has caught the eye a number of times this year. He’s certainly a tricky sort, can be temperamental, gets upset in the stall and looks a horse doing things in his own time.

There was good money all day for him last time out at Ripon when he stepped up to 12 furlongs for the first time – a trip that he should appreciate.

He ran really well over shorter 10 furlongs on two occasions at Beverley previously, when things didn’t go his way and he ran better than the bare result suggested.

The same can be said about this most recent Ripon run. Of course at some point you’re not unlucky but it’s more what you truly are. Nonetheless, I feel Gibside deserves another chance.

He was unruly in the starting gate, slowly away, trailed the field and raced generally highly inefficient with a move at the halfway stage costing vital energy and another huge move turning for home from 4 furlongs out on the wide outside.

He paid for it in the final three furlongs, yet finished in 3rd eventually. Coming from so far back was a huge disadvantage. The runner-up led the field, the winner raced in midfield.

I feel a more conventional, flat track like Doncaster will suit this big, rangy gelding much more than Beverley, or even Ripon. No excuses today. I must stress though he is on the drift this morning – at the same time it ensures a seriously good price, if he is in it to win it today.

10pts win – Gibside @ 6.8/1

……….

Added after initial post – 12.30:

3.10 Group 1 Coronation Cup, 1m 4f

High Definition has drifted into a serious price to the point I feel he’s so far overpriced I have to add him as a bet today. By no means is he’s a 11/2+ shot in this field.

No question that if on song Pyledriver is the one to beat. A consistent top-class horse, the defending champion which saw him achieve a career best here last year. He ran well at Meydan when last seen. If he’s close to the form he showed twelve months ago he’s probably hard to beat.

I can’t have Manobo around 2/1 at all. He is lightly raced and open to considerable improvement. On the other hand he’s clearly shown to need a trip to be seen to best effect. Dropping back to 1m 4f is a major question mark for me.

Hukum has only once in his career ran to a topspeed rating of 100. That dates back to 2020, or nine runs. It would need some of the others to misfire for him to win.

High Definition backs up quickly. That is my major concern. He has been a disappointing horse ever since showing so much promise as a juvenile. But the level of form he produced last time out at the Curragh in the Tattersalles Cup is right up there with the best of Pyledriver.

He got a superb ride that day, and clearly that has to be taken into account as a source of the improvement. Nonetheless, he made it a true test going from the front and was just beaten in the dying strides in a top-class field.

He ran to topspeed 108 at that day. I feel it’s a genuine performance. If he can show this level of form today he has a major chance.

At given prices he’s clearly overpriced with ground ad trip not really being a worry in my view.

10pts win – High Definition @ 5.8/1

Monday Selections: 30th May 2022

2.25 Lingfield: Novice Stakes, 1m 1f

Normally this wouldn’t be my type of race but I was very taken with the way Foursome finished on her debut. It was clearly an educational ride and the slow pace didn’t suit her, but she finished pretty much the best under an easy hands and heels ride.

There was good market support for her pre-race – perhaps the Haggas factor. She was alertly out of the gates, but caught wide before settling in rear. While the race developed at the front end, thanks to slow fractions, she became a bit outpaced as the leaders kicked on from over three furlongs out.

She found her feet, though, made good progress from the 2 furlong marker on and moved through a tight gap one furlong from home finishing in fine fashion.

Clearly she needs a better pace and will get into her own when moving up in trip. The additional half a furlong today will certainly suit in that regard.

The race looks for the taking, given the 71 rated Lyrical Lady sets a solid standard but hasn’t set the world alight in six starts. Buick on two-time runner-up Musical Romance is a short priced favourite. Not sure she will truly enjoy this trip, hence worth taking on.

It’s always a risk in these races, whether horses are prepared for handicaps. I feel Foursome will be given every chance to get a win on board today, though.

10pts win – Foursome @ 11/2

………….

4.40 Redcar: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

This could be the day for Captain Claret. I am monitoring him since last summer when he ran a number of times better than the bare form suggested.

He changed yards in the meantime, now with Ruth Carr, he ran twice this year. His return at Redcar over 7 furlongs was an excellent performance when he raced mostly from the front, setting a solid pace and only got caught late in the final furlong.

He couldn’t follow up at Thirsk but there were excuses for the performance. Perhaps a blessing in disguise as a consequence Captain Claret has dropped to a mark off 60 – a career-lowest. If I felt last summer he was capable to run to a 70 rating, then he’s clearly well-handicapped today.

The Ruth Carr yard is in poor form. That’s a definite concern. On the other hand this race is very winnable with questions marks about each and every runner. On the plus side Joanna Mason knows the horse and I hope she can set sensible fractions or track the pace.

There are no concerns over the trip, neither over the ground, even if the rain would arrive.

10pts win – Captain Claret @ 6/1

Saturday Selections: 28th May 2022

3.39 Catterick: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Marselan should have a good chance to outrun his odds in this open contest. The wide draw is a real concern, given he isn’t a lightning fast starter. But he could be really well handicapped today and may benefit from a red hot pace with many of the rivals keen to be on the front foot.

The 4-year-old was a major eyecatcher last time out. That day he raced as part of a duo isolated on the stands’ side. The pair was lengths behind the main bunch and had plenty to do with two furlongs to go. Marselan found plenty to finish much the strongest to grab 2nd place. He also achieved a career best 60 topspeed rating.

This was the first time after a wind operation. The loss of form last year can most likely be attributed to those issues.

He won of 65 and 67 last summer over 7 furlongs. Now down to 62 he’s obviously well handicapped with the breathing issues rectified. 7furlongs on fast ground could be his optimum – so he’s a play for me today.

10pts win – Marselan @ 10/1

…………..

5.00 Beverley: Class 6 Handicap, 7.5f

Cobra Kai couldn’t have been unluckier at Musselburgh earlier this month when he got a horrible trip in the closing stages yet was only beaten in a photo eventually.

The handicapper was lenient and has added only 2lb to the mark for that massive effort that should have seen him win potentially with a bit in hand, which means he should still be a well handicapped today.

The race comes soon enough, which is a question mark. Otherwise I feel the favourite is worth taking on. The Covex Kid won well on the All-Weather and could improve, but this is a different test under a 6lb penalty today.

Cobra Kai been a somewhat unlucky horse in his career, still a maiden, catching the eye a few times. Before the huge lto run he caught my eye at Musselburgh in April over 7 furlongs when he was hampered early on, lit up as a result and still ran a fine race.

The fast ground poses no problems today, the #1 draw is fine and Buick booked is a major bonus given the poor decision making by Mullen was a key reason for Cobra Kai still being a maiden.

10pts win – Cobra Kai @ 4.8/1

Monday Selections: 23rd May 2022

After an excellent last week with three winners – the cherry on the cake was clearly backing Early Voting to win the Preakness Stakes – here’s hoping for the positive trend to continue. I’ve got two selections for today.

4.25 Leicester: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Sense Of Security was a massive eyecatcher at Bath over a mile, although she pulled hard for the majority of the race, indicating she may enjoy a drop in trip. Hence I felt it was an odd choice to go up in distance the last time. She duely failed to get home over 9.5f at Wolverhampton, running way too freely.

She drops down to 7 furlongs today and that looks the right decision. With the rain coming this afternoon the jury is out whether she likes any sort of give in the ground. It’s a question mark. But that aside, she looks ready to romp home with a clear run.

I base this claim on her penultimate Bath performance over the mile trip, where she travelled keenly in midfield for the majority of the race. Yet she appeared to go strongly turning for home, the jockey taking a pull over 3 furlongs out seemingly with tons in hand. She was multiple times a clear run denied and no doubt with clear passage she’d have gone close.

Sense Of Security has shown promise as a juvenile last last year, as she was placed over 5.5f at Bath in an eye-catching performance. She was a good third at Kempton on her seasonal reappearance last month where she ran to topspeed 61.

Racing off 63 today with a strong jockey booking I feel she has a major chance, even though this is a hot little contest for a class 6 on a Monday afternoon. Either way she’s seriously overpriced.

10pts win – Sense Of Security @ 9.5/1

………

7.40 Windsor: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

I was interested in The Rain King the last time when he finished down the field at Lingfield eventually. He was a big drifter in the betting on the day. In a race with little early pace he was caught out without cover way too soon as well.

He returns today to Windsor where he seriously caught the eye on his penultimate run. He was an unlucky horse not to win, or at the very least got much closer than a 1.5 lengths beaten 3rd place. He outran a 22/1 price tag that day, first up after a break and wind operation. The form looks solid and he returns to the same CD today.

The Rain King was an expensive £250k yearling and clearly has ability. He was a strong 3rd on debut in a hot maiden when trained in Ireland. Obviously he hasn’t fulfilled the early promise, moved over to Alexandra Dunne and didn’t show much for her until this recent Windsor run on the back of the wind op.

Obviously he needs to take another step forward now, confirm the promise from that penultimate run and prove that he still got the appetite for the game. He’s yet to run beyond topspeed 65, although I feel there are mitigating factors, as outlined before.

He’s drawn in #11 today, which isn’t ideal. But at least he should get a clear run on the outside presumably. If he’s as well handicapped as I feel he possibly is, then he should have enough in hand to win from there.

10pts win – The Rain King @ 11/1

Eyecatchers #8 2022

A list of horses that caught my eye during the last seven days of racing. These individuals look ready to win a race sooner rather than later given the right conditions.

Saulire Star
13/05/22 – 6.45 Hamilton:

Solid start from double-figure draw. Settled a few lengths off the pace setter, travelling strongly. Smooth headway into the home straight, heading the leader about two furlongs from home. Eventually had to pay tribute for chasing the hot pace when fading in the final furlong.

He did best of those up or close to the pace. The winner and runner-up both came from off the pace. He is unlucky to be a maiden after 16 career runs having been hampered/short of room the last two times at crucial stages of the race. Especially the lto performance is noteworthy for the way he finished the race.

Down to a mark of 48 and unlikely that the handicapper will be harsh after this run, he stays up to 10 furlongs, though, perhaps doesn’t want it genuinely soft over that trip. I believe he’s ready to win a race.

Race Replay

Scorpio
13/05/22 – 2.40 Newbury:

Bit slowly away, also drawn low no advantage given where the race developed. Travelled well enough in midfield but looked for an opening from over two furlongs out. No instant change of gear when gap opened with about a furlong to go but kept going nicely to finish well in 5th without being asked too many questions.

Fine debut run given circumstances as she lost her left fore shoe in the closing stages. This could be pretty solid form. She likely ends up as a miler. Will be interesting if going up in trip. Needs monitoring for the next starts. Should be one for handicaps.

Race Replay

Tammani + Ramiro
13/05/22 – 4.45 York:

Tammani settled in rear and had loads to do entering the home straight. Tried to move toward stands’ side over two furlongs out. Repeatedly short of room until late when he finishes incredibly well on the inside under hands and heels.

Even a blind man would have spotted this eyecatching run. He’s obviously down to a really good mark, having been a Listed winner at two and Group 3 placed at three. Could be too obvious for nto.

He’s not ran to a topspeed rating matching his current handicap mark but that is most likely because he used to race in France until last summer where TS is often not available.

He’s a tricky horse, nonetheless, and I am prepared to wait for ideal conditions. That is a mile on soft ground. I would also consider 7 furlongs with a stiff finish. Soft ground is non-negotiable, though.

Ramior was also an unlucky horse in the race. He was touch slowly away, but then appeared to be going strongly approaching the 2 furlong marker. Behind a wall of horses he had to delay his challenge and was severely short of room in a tight spot a furlong from home. He was eased and reportedly lost his action after the 1f incident.

This was his best run since moving to Brian Ellison. He won races of marks of 74 and 78 the last two seasons in Ireland. In that context I am not too bothered that his best topspeed rating is only 73.

Ease in the ground is key for him too. Another reduction of the mark and 7 furlongs with a bit of cut in the ground is the scenario I am looking for.

Race Replay

Mobarhin
13/05/22 – 1.40 Newmarket:

Had the perfect draw to grab the rail and did so right from the start. Moved forward and set a red hot pace having the entire field on the stretch 3 furlongs out. Headed eventually but kept going gutsily right to the line.

He looks capable of staying 7 furlongs with a more conservative ride but perhaps 6 furlongs is his optimum. Won in January over the trip on the All-Weather of a mark of 70, achieving a 74 topspeed rating.

I believe he has still a bit of scope on turf, especially over 6 furlongs on decent ground. Ideally he gets a bit assistance from the handicapper before backing him.

Race Replay

Gumdrop
14/05/22 – 4.05 Thirsk:

Travelled initially on the outside quite keenly, perhaps being quite fresh on his comeback run. Was going well enough, even though perhaps a little bit outpaced halfway through at the rear of the field. Not the clearest of runs from two furlongs out. Finished nicely under hands and heels late.

First run since September 2020. Gelded in the meantime. Promising return to the track. Drifted out 18/1 on the day. Won of a mark of 75 and ran to topspeed 81 as a juvenile at Chester. Still lightly raced and seems to retain ability.

Should enjoy a step up in trip on pedigree. There is plenty of stamina on the dam side, although the dam only won over 6 furlongs herself. Should be monitored next time in the betting.

Six furlongs perhaps with some ease in the ground can work but I wouldn’t mind the step up to 7f. Also need a bit help from the handicapper before I’m really interested.

Race Replay

Dusky Prince
16/05/22 – 4.25 Redcar:

Raced right in the middle of the pack, slightly niggled halfway through as pace was red hot but kept going and looked in with a big shout if only a gap would have opened. He couldn’t get a run right until the very end. Wasn’t needlessly knocked about even when some space opened up late.

The form book might suggest that he’s in the grip of the handicapper. But I feel he’s probably been quite an incredibly unlucky horse on the All-Weather in his last three runs.

He caught the eye on all those runs, especially at Newcastle (badly hampered when most likely coming with the winning move) in February and Lingfield when he got too far behind but was flying home with a sub 11 second final furlong.

Some of the bad luck is self-made, though. It is absolutely clear that he’s not quite speedy enough for the minimum trip and that is a reason why he meets trouble. Clearly he needs to move up to 6 furlongs.

The dam was a winner over 6 furlongs as well as twice a winner over 7 furlongs on the All-Weather. He tried 6 furlongs only twice before and that was in really hot company. So there is plenty of scope for better, both on turf or All-Weather. He’s absolutely ripe to win if he moves up in trip.

Race Replay

Gurkhali Girl
16/05/22 – 4.15 Carlisle:

Despite being quite keen in the early part of the race she travelled well into the home straight looking to have a big say in the outcome of the race. Bit inconvenienced by a horse crossing over from the right side around 2.5 furlongs from home. Tries hard to get going but runs completely out of energy in the end.

Was quite keen last time out in a maiden over a mile at Ayr on her first run since July 2021 but travelled notably well there. Didn’t get the clearest of runs on the inside either. Faded badly but was entitled after being off the track for such a long time.

In these two runs she caught my eye for the way she travelled strongly into the home straight. She cost £50k as a yearling and is quite well bred. I assume she needed the run these two times and soft ground accentuated her tired finish here at Carlisle.

The Iain Jardine yard is in poor form. it’s something to watch out for. A mile looks possibly an ideal trip on pedigree. The way she can be fresh and pull for her head is a concern. On the other hand she’s going to drop to an interesting mark now. The jury is out whether she can perform on soft ground as her sire did.

Race Replay

Corinthia Knight + Firenze Rosa
16/05/22 – 5.10 Windsor:

Corinthia Night was outpaced from an early stage, hampered over two furlongs out, wandering around behind a wall of horses in order to get a clear run. It only opens up inside the final furlong when he runs on well for a 5th place finish.

He’s fallen dramatically in the weights in the last months. It was only back in July 2021 when he won back to back, including of a mark of 92 running to a near career best topspeed rating of 92.

Ever since he’s hardly ever shown much. Now down to a 73 rating, this most recent performance was a first proper sign that there’s still some spark. In my mind he wants 6 furlongs these days, though. He acts on soft but I wouldn’t back him unless it’s reasonably fast ground.

Firenze Rosa travelled pretty well until about the halfway stage. Was then stuck behind horses. Briefly tracking the initial winner but not getting through on the inside. The inexperienced jockey perhaps also not quite brave enough to take a gap on the stands’ side until very late. Finishes well enough under an easy right suggesting there was more left in the tank.

She was 1lb out of the weights here, yet I hope the run motivates the handicapper to give here a bit leeway.

She won of a mark of 56 in soft here at Windsor and she finished the turf season in October with a really strong runner-up effort of a 57 mark running to a 57 TS rating that day.

If she drops below a mark of 55 over 5 furlongs on proper soft ground she should have a really good chance.

Race Replay

D Day Odette
16/05/22 – 7.40 Windsor:

Went left at the start, then settled in last trailing the field. Still last approaching three furlongs out. Eyecatching progress on the bridle when switched to the outside of the field challenging two furlongs from home. Possibly a bit tired in the closing stages after the big effort.

Second start. Seasonal reappearance. Frist time with a tongue tie. Changed yards in May. Purchased at breeze up for €58k. Should stay 10 furlongs on pedigree with relative certainty.

One to monitor next time. Most likely one for handicaps when moving up in trip.

Race Replay

Kelapa
17/05/22 – 1.30 Brighton:

Out of the #1 draw, bit keen early on travelling on the inside okay and looked in with a shout. Short of room 2f out, not getting a run, hampered at the final furlong marker. Gets some space late and finished nicely under an easy ride.

Handicap debut for the filly after three no-shows last year. 7 furlongs should be fine on pedigree. There is plenty of fast ground form in her line, so I reckon that will be ideal conditions. She may have enough speed for 6f too. Would prefer a stiff finish in that case, though.

Race Replay

Cabeza De Llave
17/05/22 – 1.20 Wolverhampton:

Appeared to be outpaced at stages in the first half of the race racing in midfield. Got back on the bridle and travelled well into the home straight. As the eventual winner kicked form he front he didn’t have the pace to challenge but kept to the task and wasn’t overly hard ridden. Finished well enough for 4th place on a day when it was certainly beneficial to be up with the pace.

Handicap debut and first outing in 2022. Expected to come on and learn from this. Certainly needs a step up to 6 furlongs. 7 furlongs looks possible on pedigree as well.

Race Replay

Shahnaz
17/05/22 – 3.50 Wolverhampton:

Awkward start and as a consequence at the backfoot right away, also outpaced early on. Flat footed from 4 furlongs out as pace increased again, turned wide and make impressive challenge on the outside of the field, finishing much the strongest visually and on the clock.

Interesting performance last time out at Nottingham too. Ran much better than result suggest in strong race. Had been handed tough assignment by handicapper with opening mark. Comes steadily down.

Last two performances suggest she can win. I like to see her up in trip to 10 furlongs again. Ideally the handicapper gives her an an opportunity.

Race Replay

Makyon
19/05/22 – 1.30 Wolverhampton:

He’s one who featured on the list last week. Ran in the meantime at Wolverhampton over an extended mile. That wasn’t interesting from a betting perspective. The trip is too far in my view.

He travelled very well at the back of the field, though, notably on the bridle right into the home straight. But not much got involved here, certainly not from the back of the field, and he certainly didn’t have a chance stuck behind tons of traffic.

Trainer has given a positive mentioning the last two times. He’s got another entry on the AW over 8.5 next week. I’ll maintain to wait for a drop to 6 to 7 furlongs on turf.

Race Replay

Lory
19/05/22 – 2.50 Wolverhampton:

Did a lot in the first half of the race racing around the first bend to dispute the lead on the outside. Travelled nicely until 3 furlongs out. Faded away in the closing stages but not asked a question either.

Former Andre Fabre and Godolphin horse, caught the eyes on two starts in France. Those races have worked out quite well. She hasn’t seen the whip in any of her three starts to date so it’s hard to gauge how much she would find if ever properly asked.

Seven furlongs seems to be as far as she would want it at this stage I reckon. Perhaps dropping down to six wouldn’t be an issue either. She’s going handicapping and is to monitor for her opening mark.

Freedom Flyer
19/05/22 – 3.50 Wolverhampton:

Wasn’t ideally positioned from his wide draw in rear of the field in a slowly run race. Eventual winner got a soft lead and everything caught napping in behind. FF travelled strongly into the home straight but locked behind horses only got really into the clear about a furlong from home which was to late. Finished well enough but not overly hard ridden, smart ride by jockey.

Continues to fall slowly in his mark. Comes down to a good rating. Went almightily close over CD in October of 64. Ran to topspeed 62 over CD before that, as well as TS 72 on turf.

Would be interesting to see him back on turf over 6 furlongs on decent ground of his current mark.

Bomb Squad
19/05/22 – 4.25 Wolverhampton:

Travelled in midfield, seemingly bit outpaced midway through, looking strong coming into the home straight, waiting for room to challenge. Consistently short of room, though, and badly hampered inside the final furlong, still finds momentum late to finish 2nd.

Runs consistently well on the All-weather and possibly in the grip of the handicapper on this surface. However will be really interesting back on turf on proper soft ground.

He has excellent form in those conditions over 6 furlongs. Given current wellbeing and strong form, he’ll be dangerous. Worth to wait for the right circumstances.