Tag Archives: Polytrack

Wednesday Selections: 1st June 2022

80 points profit in May, 4 winners and about 16% ROI – the first two months of the flat season have been green. The real ‘war’ starts now in June. Here’s hoping to kick it off with a bang…. on the Kempton polytrack.

7.30 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Zameka is really interesting today returning to 7 furlongs. The shorter sprint distances are too sharp while he’s already a winner over this trip.

I am not judging him harshly on his last run on turf at Ascot in a seriously hot Handicap over 6 furlongs. The overall form looks strong, but he was disadvantaged right away from the widest outside draw. He travelled okay to the two furlong marker then dropped away quickly. First time blinkers didn’t help much in terms of performance, although he looked a lot more settled and less awkward than in the past in general.

He is clearly a quirky sort as on show in the past. He ran really well at Lingfield on his seasonal debut in a good handicap when he hang his chances away in the closing stage but finished well given the circumstances. Visually I got the impression with a straight run he’d have won that day.

As a juvenile Zameka was two times placed – including when a close second to Tiber Flow – and won well on his final start in 2021. Those performances came on the All-Weather over 7 furlongs. Therefore he’s certainly better than this most recent poor showing, I feel.

He was a $170k yearling, a full-brother to 95 rated Eagle Song, who won twice over 7 furlongs on the All-Weather, so his current rating offers hope that there is still more to come.

As for this race I don’t worry too much over the draw. He has shown early speed before, from what is effectively the #8 draw he should be able to move forward to pick up a position just behind the pace.

This is a competitive race, though. Botanist looks the obvious danger if he stays 7 furlongs, which is more likely than not, and especially if he shows better temperament today. Morning favourite Skittlebombz was unlucky last time out and has more to offer, although the trip is a question mark and he may be close to his ceiling from a handicapping point of view.

10pts win – Zameka @ 11/2

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May 2022 Statistics:

Saturday Selection: February, 1st 2020

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4.45 Kempton: Class 7 Handicap, 1 mile

Mrs Benson caught the eye on her return a eight days ago at Lingfield. Off for 141 days she had to overcome the widest draw and as a consequence travelled widest for most of the race and had to do more than most to be in a decent position turning for home, as sectionals clearly show.

Sectionals clearly show also that this was quite a good performance taking everything into account and she was for that plus the fact that this was her first run in half a year entitled to tire in the final furlong.

Dropping another pound as well as in class, with a much better draw today, she must have a massive chance if she can follow-up. That isn’t a given, as Mrs Benson is inconsistent and remains a maiden after 18 starts.

On the other hand she ran four times to 55+ tospeed ratings, including Kempton as well as twelve month ago over a mile at Lingfield, achieving a 61 TS.

Only three starts back, in summer on the flat, she was a fair third in a Salisbury handicap – the form looks rock solid – she did it of OR 53 that day and there isn’t an indication she isn’t as effective on the All-Weather as on turf. With that in mind, she could be well handicapped today.

Selection:
10pts win – Mrs Benson @ 12/1 MB

Wednesday Selections: January, 22nd 2020

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1.10 Lingfield: Class 5 Fillies’ Handicap, 7f

Even though she hasn’t been running badly, Chloellie has fallen 5lb below her last winning mark. Granted the majority of her victories came at Kempton, though I don’t see a reason why she shouldn’t perform at Lingfield as well.

The mare had a small break before returning in early January, performing with credit at Southwell. Now back on poly, and down to a 64 handicap mark against her own sex, she is a major player of a decent draw.

As recent as October she matched her current OR with a 64 topspeed rating, having ran to 67 in spring 2019 also.

Selection:
10pts win – Chloellie @ 7.2/1 MB

………..

3.55 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Roundabout Magic looks vulnerable of his current mark. Surely a contender, but not one who’s desperately well-handicapped.

Warrior’s Valley in contrast drops to a tasty mark while back on polytrack with a good draw over the minimum trip should help see him find back to form.

The five-year-old gelding hasn’t been at his best at Southwell in his last two starts, though before that – particularly his final run in 2019 at Lingfield – were decent efforts.

He’s 2lb lower today than than the aforementioned Lingfield race. That’s six pounds lower than his last winning mark while he ran three times in 2019 to topspeed ratings of 68+, including twice over this course and distance where he also produced his career highest RPR.

Franny Norton on board today is another plus. In a race where the favourite is vulnerable and the rest of the field hardly frightning this appears to be a super opportunity for Warrior’s Valley to find back to the winning ways.

Selection:
10pts win – Warrior’s Valley @ 15/2 WH

Saturday Selections: January, 18th 2020

Ascot Grand Stand, by Florian Christoph

12.30 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

Presence Process makes a lot of appeal dropping further and further in his mark, now below 50. His latest effort over course and distance was positive, given there looked a spark there for first time headgear.

He probably got a little bit too much locked up in an early battle for the lead, subsequently was pulled back and then didn’t quite have the kick in the home straight, nonetheless finished well enough to see him winning again.

He loves this CD, has ran multiple times to higher speed ratings than his now lowly 49 rating and must have a prime chance in a poor contest.

The key will be the early parts of the race, though: drawn in 9 is a negative.

Selection:
10pts win – Presence Process @ 8/1 MB

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2.25 Ascot: Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle, 2m3½f

It’s probably not the best of signs that he is on the drift with the high street, but I remain quietly hopeful at the very least that Pic D’orhy is a good deal better than his 146 rating and will show it today.

Connections have always said he’s a chaser in the making. Nonetheless, he showed plenty of promise in France over hurdles, in deep ground and I feel the trip and conditions today will suit him.

Granted it is a competitive field. 2m3½f fell the last time at Autil in Grade 1 company a long way from the finish. He made his Nicholls debut at Cheltenham in the Triumph Hurdle where he travelled strongly until a blunder at the second last that ended his chances.

He’s still a young horse, will little millage on the clock and more to come. If he’s a class horse for the future he will need to show something good today against this opposition. At given prices I am inclined to be on his side.

Selection:
10pts win – Pic D’orhy @ 13/2 MB

……….

4.25 Meydan: Handicap, 7 furlongs

One that caught my eye two weeks ago here at Meydan in a competitive mile handicap was Moqarrar. He started well but was soon pulled back and before hitting the turn switched to the widest outside of the field travelling five deep.

As a consequence Moqarrar lost a lot of ground and had to do more than others in order to stay in touch burning vital energy. The gelding fought on gamely though hitting top gear entering the home straight and looked in with a good shout for the placings but faded eventually.

That was a strong performance taking circumstances into considerations. He can race of 2lb lower today, although drops to 7 furlongs, which may not be a big deal as he won over this trip as a juvenile in the UK.

I imagine he’ll jump out of the gate to be much closer to the pace today in hands of Jim Crowley and if getting a clear run should have a strong chance to outrun his price at the very least.

Selection:
10pts win – Moqarrar @ 11/1 WH

Tuesday Selections: December, 31th 2019

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Last day of 2019! This year flew by – it’s been intense on many fronts, including the betting. A profitable year once more, the third successive one. Complete and transparent update on that another day, though.

Here’s hoping to finish the year with a bang: one or two winners at Lingfield please!

……..

12.00 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 5 furlongs

Roundabout Magic appears to be a fair favourite but is hard to trust particularly at a short price. He needs to have everything falling right hence I oppose him, even though is sure to go close, particularly if getting a clear run.

Two other interesting ones are rivals Roundabout Magic seemingly beat last time out: the filly Starchant is still searching for a maiden victory but has ran to speed ratings in the past that suggest she can win a race like this and clearly didn’t get the best of runs last time. However blinkers didn’t help alleviate her starting issues the last time so I oppose here.

It will not come as a surprise to readers of this blog that the only other viable alternative for me in this field can be Fareeq. I was on him the last time as well but he lost his chance at the start as well.

It’s a gamble to put faith in the 5-year-old to get it right this time, however the way he finished that latest race proved that my notion of him potentially being well handicapped isn’t necessarily wrong.

Despite encountering plenty of trouble in the home straight he finished the last two furlongs fastest – faster even than Roundabout Magic. He’s a pound lower today, so all that’s been said the last time is still valid – certainly his breathing seems fine judged by that effort, the 3rd start since the wind OP:

“As a course and distance winner earlier this year off 2lb higher than his revised 56 [now 55] handicap mark he makes plenty of appeal, given he also ran to a topspeed rating of 62 that day. He ran a close 3rd at Wolverhampton in August off 6lb higher than today also.”

Selection:
10pts win – Fareeq @ 8/1 MB

………

1.05 Lingfield: Class 2 Handicap, 1 mile

As much as this looks a trappy affair as much it’s rather obvious that most in this field appear to be in the grip of the handicapper now. Favourite Kuwaiti Currency needs a significant career best, which looks not impossible given he is 3-year-old and was a May foal, but 17 starts to his name and recent performances don’t suggest he’s close to get there.

Another Touch looks rock solid and will run his race with confidence after a recent success. However he is certainly not well handicapped with little secrets for the handicapper.

Same can be said about the rest here as well, but I can make a strong case for Mr Scaramanga to be significantly overpriced in this race – granted the handbrake is off.

The 5-year-old should enjoy the drop in trip to a mile after two efforts over 10 furlongs in his last two starts. All his best career performances came over the mile trip and more significantly over this course and distance in fact.

The gelding ran to 99, 97 and 91 topspeed ratings over this CD in the past and also won of his current 87 handicap rating here back in January this year. He’s got a good draw to play with and should be primed after his two recent runs coming off a break to go close in a winnable contest.

Selection:
10pts win – Mr Scaramanga @ 7/1 MB

Saturday Selections: December, 21st 2019

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11.45 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 5 furlongs

Roundabout Magic is a fair favourite here, he clearly will go close. Is he a horse to put as much trust in as a 7/4 promises? Certainly not.

Fareeq is a superb alternative at multiple times the price. He had two runs since a wind OP. The jury is out whether this made any difference. With benefit of the doubt he should be race fit now for sure, at the very least.

As a course and distance winner earlier this year off 2lb higher than his revised 56 handicap mark he makes plenty of appeal, given he also ran to a topspeed rating of 62 that day. He ran a close 3rd at Wolverhampton in August off 6lb higher than today also.

Therefore, if his breathing is fine, with a good draw to play with, Fareeq should be a major player today.

Selection:
10pts win – Fareeq @ 6/1 MB

……….

3.10 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

Accessor could have done with a better draw but he proved the last time that it doesn’t have to be a hindrance to a strong performance so I am hopeful he can overcome it here with a good start today.

He has clearly fallen a long way in the mark and nearly took advantage of it last time at Newcastle over the same trip. First time in headgear and off a small break he travelled strongly and rallied impressively in the final furlong to nearly catch the eventual winner, who ran to a 3lb faster TS rating than his official mark that day and followed up under a penalty with a neck beaten runner-up performance.

That days Accessor himself ran to a 52 topspeed rating that day, so off a 51 mark he looks potentially weighted to go close again, as a one pound hike for this latest effort seems lenient. He also ran four times to 52+ TS ratings throughout his career, so a second victory is only a matter of time now.

Selection:
10pts win – Accessor @ 6/1 MB