Tag Archives: Polytrack

Tuesday Selections: January, 15th 2019

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7.45 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 7 furlongs

Today is the day the handbreak comes off for Six Strings. I was already keen on the 5-year-old the last time here at Kempton, but as it turned out he was rather on pacemaker duties for a well-fancied stable mate that day, going from the front like a lunatic.

Number One jockey Robert Winston is on board this timeand Six Strings has fallen another 3lb in the handicap mark for the latest effort – a mark he seems certain to be well handicapped of, judged on past form.

What applied on the 4th of January does aply very much today also:

Six Strings had a number of yard changes and has seen his colours dramatically lowered from contesting competitively hot class 2 Handicaps of marks closer to 90, to falling now down to class 5 Handicaps on the All-Weather, rated 72.

It has to be said that Six Strings actually ran rather decent in 2018 despite all of this – the only really bad runs, in my book at least, were the two most recent efforts, both over a mile.

He drops to 7f today, a trip that’s more what he wants, most likely. His only success came over 6f to date but the additional furlong looks a real possibility, particularly if there isn’t too much pace on and he can either set the temp himself or track a modest pace.

Selection:
10pts win – Six Strings @ 4/1 MB

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Wednesday Selections: January, 9th 2019

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5.45 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 3f

Distingo looks the dark horse, potentially well in here on his return to the All-Weather. But at given prices I’m even more interested in long-shot Gendarme.

Rossa Ryan, a good job jockey, has a fine record on Hannon runners, rides this lightly raced gelding for the first time on what is Gendarme’s second start after a break and gelding operation.

You can easily disregard his comeback run over too short 7f. He steps up to 1m 3f which will much more what he needs. The son of Lawman tries the AW for the second time in his career, a surface that should suit also.

On turf he ran well enough of his allotted marks; a 3¾ lengths beaten 5th in a hot 10f Leicester handicap on June is the pick of the form; he ran to TS 71 and a career high RPR of 78 – the forms holds up well.

Now down to a handicap mark of 69, the 4-year-old could be well handicapped with a good draw, track and trip likely to suit, so a big run is on the cards, and he could pay handsomely for it.

Selection:
10pts win – Gendarme @ 20/1 MB

…..

6.45 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 6 furlongs

Totally speculative but not without hope is Delagate The Lady here in a poor race. The filly hasn’t shown anything to the form book of note in five career runs. However, on her handicap debut over 7f at Lingfield recently she outran her 50/1 price tag significantly in my view.

She tracked the eventual winner and pace setter for most parts of the race – the winner wasn’t to catch, but she showed fair early speed crossing over from her 8 gate after the start and stretched the rest of the field by half a dozen lengths until turning home, still in front – bar the winner – entering the final furlong.

This daguther of Delegator drops to 6f which is a trip more to suit, her dam was an AW winner as well, and her mark is down to a lowly 48 now.

The draw isn’t ideal, but Kieren Fox makes the trip here for this only one ride. So hopefully that a good sign for the chances of Delagate The Lady today, on what is her second handicap start.

Selection:
10pts win – Delagate The Lady @ 23/1 MB

Thursday Selections: January, 3rd 2019

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A perfect start to 2019: Paparazzi delivered in style the first winner of the new year @ 12/1! It remained the only winner on the night, as Athollblair Boy ran a competitive race finishing third while Admiral Rooke didn’t last the pace.

I’ll have a full roundup of the 2018 betting year up over the weekend, similar to the on from last season.

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2.00 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6 furlongs

For the low grade this is, this is quite a competitive race. The favourite looks sue to go well to follow-up on his recent success and you can easily argue a handful of these have a chance on their best to go close.

The one I like most on handicap debut is Point Zero. This lad is still winless after 13 career starts, however went close on multiple occasions, looking sure to win over course and distance this winter approaching the final furlong, just to be picked up late.

He clearly has an issue to finish his races, but some was also down to the fact he went off way too fast in the early parts of his races. Dropped to the minimum trip lately didn’t work to counteract this.

Point Zero looks a 6f horse to me. Ridden a bit more sensible early on and he could have enough left in the tank when it matters. Collateral form of his best 6f efforts suggest a mark of 67 is fair – in fact I believe, he could be a bit better than that.

The draw isn’t a huge help today, and he had a lot of racing lately, most notably only 3 days ago here over 5f – but he clearly goes well over this CD and could be well in at this grade if things worked out the way I imagine they can.

Selection:
10pts win – Point Zero @ 6/1 MB

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5.20 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap, 1 mile

The lightly raced favourite Holy Heart is sexy and could prove too good of his opening mark. However, it’s hard to judge what his recent win is worth, as the form has been franked subsequently but looked bad on the clock.

Proven class is 8-year-old Lacan. He appears to be as good as ever, certainly running to of 80 in all his recent starts, even though without quite finding enough to get over the line.

The handicapper drops him to 78 now. Not a lot but potentially enough: Lacan was a CD scorer off 82 in Spring last year. A big run seems to be expected: job jockey Rossa Ryan comes here for this one ride only.

Selection:
10pts win – Lacan @ 7/1 MB

Thursday Selections: October, 4th 2018

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5.35 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

The top weight is the one to beat in my book, despite his “patchy record” over the last weeks. Fact is Roundabout Magic has a proven track record here at Lingfield, particularly over the minimum trip and has achieved twice a TS rating off 67 this season, suggesting he is well up to his current mark off 66.

He’s been racing in better races lately, so dropping back into class 6 is a hint in itself. The last time he raced as low as this he won over CD back in February.

Roundabout Magic has a good draw to ensure he’s close to the pace in case this becomes a muddling affair. It’s a slight concern that he was slowly into stride lto, though this wasn’t a habit in the past, so here’s hoping it was only “Once Off”.

Jockey Nicky Mackay has only this single ride today and he has a pretty decent record for trainer Simon Daw in these type of races and has also won on Roundabout Magic already.

Selection:
10pts win – Roundabout Magic @ 7/2 WH

Saturday Selections: January, 20th 2018

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8.15 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 1 mile

A quiet week so far, and here we go with a horse I’ve already been interested in a week ago, when he ran – and finished poorly, well beaten at Southwell.

Nonetheless, I’m prepared to give Emigrated another chance here, in this pretty poor contest that screams for an upset.

Reasons are pretty much the same as last week – however there is a slight bonus this time: Emigrated returns to a surface he probably likes a lot more, which he showed here in December when running his best race in a very long time over CD.

It was his second start for the Derek Shaw yard, after a promising initial display at Southwell coming off a break. At Chelmsford he backed it up with a fine 5th, only 2¾ beaten despite not having things going his way throughout – form that looks solid enough in the book, also.

Emigrated didn’t run well the last two times. There was little excuse last week other than a fluffed start at an unkind surface that can be hard to recover from a scenario like that – still a run to forget. The penultimate start at Chelmsford over 10f, a third run in quick succession, is easier to forgive when seen in the right context.

However, it has to be said, the five year old gelding did show eye-catching improvement in his first starts for his new trainer Derek Shaw.

 

Now, you don’t want to make too many excuses for a long standing maiden who hasn’t shown a lot his whole life. Nonetheless, those two forms in early December give him a fair shout in this race.

Interesting fact that Emigrated’s sire Fastnet Rock has quite an excellent record over this trip in Chelmsford Handicaps.

Selection:
10pts win – Emigrated @ 50/1 PP/VC/BF

Thursday Selections: December 28th 2017

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12.10 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Backing the girls during the winter against the boys is something I try to avoid. Numbers have proven they tend to underperform on the sand when it’s cold. However this field here is made up of more than half of fillies and it has a rather open outlook despite a 6/4 fav greeting from the head of the market.

Far from the most obvious choice, nonetheless I like the chance of three year old Sea Tea Dea. The daughter of Archipenko has one impressive course and distance success from earlier this year on her CV and now 3lb lower rated than that day, she is potentially dangerously weighted.

It’s true on form she hasn’t shown much ever since. However you can make excuses if you want: either for an unrealistic handicap mark, or unsuitable ground or trip – in all her subsequent starts.

Now dropping back to 7f second up after a break with the handicapper offering a lifeline, I would not be surprised to see Sea Tea Dea return to form. Her sire has an excellent record over this CD, particularly with fillies in the winter months, surprisingly.

Her CD win achieved the joint-highest time-speed rating in the field, suggesting a return to anything close to her winning form will see her go really close.

Selection:
10pts win – Sea Tea Dea @ 16/1 Bet365

Assegai’s a big price on the Greyville Poly

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

2.25 Greyville: MR 95 Handicap, 1.900m

Not much going on on the domestic front so lets head to South Africa for an intriguing Handicap on the Greyville Polytrack. Some really good horses are going to post there, most notably the top weight Blance Sheet, a 3 year old gelding who tried to take on the best in Graded company recently.

He’s not been disgraced but found it much easier when dropped into Handicap company the last time when landing a good MR98. He’s up in the mark and tries a new trip today – which he failed to stay in the past – so that is a negative for the short favourite.

Lightly raced Krambambuli took on much stronger the last two. He was a fair third in the Cape Derby, but couldn’t back it up. This is easier and he is likely to get the trip, but in truth he has only won a low-grade handicap to date.

De Kock’s Trip To Rio could be interesting if he stays the 1900m trip. He was second in a 1m Listed event on the poly last year but utterly disappointing when last seen in a MR92 Handicap. He could well improve, though definitely has to so as more is required here.

I’m quite interested in four year old Assegai. He is the only course and distance winner in the field and was impressive when landing a MR 90 Handicap over CD on his penultimate run. He wasn’t disgraced when fifth in a very hot Listed event subsequently, taking on seasoned top class graded hoses. He will find this today much easier. He had a little break since then but usually does very well as a fresh horse.

He has to be at his best in order to give weight away to the smart three year olds, though with conditions very much in his favour, might well be able to do so. Top jockey is booked today – at 10/1 he looks overpriced in this field.

Assegai @ 10/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win