Tag Archives: Brighton

Monday Selections: September, 9th 2019

DSC_1062

3. 50 Brighton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f

Escape The City continues to disappoint when expected to run much better. As evens favourite she was beaten in a small field wen last seen – however, she takes another drop in the mark and also moved down to class 5.

Fast ground and 10 furlongs look like an ideal scenario for her. Now down to a rating of 70 the filly is a full 10lb lower than when she started the season. Largely in hotter races this year she wasn’t beaten all that far, actually, suggesting she has retained some ability.

Last season Escape The City ran four times to topspeed ratings of 70 plus, which means any return to form – although maybe running to that sort of level she ran to in higher grade of higher marks earlier this year may also be good enough – will see her go really close in this race.

Freckles looks the main danger in my book. Having won last time out and having ran to a higher tospeed rating than turned out here under a penalty earlier this year, she remains a lively chance.

But I stick with Escape The City, who appears to have a prime chance to get her head in front today. The jockey booking is the cherry on the cake so to speak, given how strongly Hollie Doyle is riding at the moment.

Selection: 
10pts win – Escape The City @ 6/1 MB

Advertisements

Thursday Selections: August, 8th 2019

DSC_2305

2.00 Haydock: Class 5 Fillies’ Handicap, 1m

With Classic Charm out this appears a wide open race with barely anyone appearing to be well handicapped. The one who have more to offer is Sootability, though.

The 3-year-old hasn’t shown anything of note this yer yet, but as an April foal by Camelot she may still find some improvement with time. The fact she also ran to a topspeed rating of 68 on her final start in 2018 shows there is a least a bit of hope also.

After four poor showings in 2019 Sootability has dropped to a 65 rating now, she also drops down to class 5 for the first time and back to a slightly shorter trip, which in combination may well turn out to be a magical combination – at least in the context of this race.

Selection:
10pts win – Sootability @ 10/1 MB

…….

4.40 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

If Admodum would find back to some sort of form he’ll be in with a massive shout. In fact, this looks like the ideal race: a poor field, he drops further in the mark down to 60 now, a good 5bl claimer in the saddle plus most importantly fast ground!

If appetite for the game is still there I’m pretty confident the ground conditions will make a massive difference. The last time Admodum raced on a fast surface he won.

Obviously on old form he is massively well handicapped. But it is a concern the poor efforts he showed for more than a year. Albeit over potentially trips stretching him or ground not quite as suitable. Second start off a break for the new yard today, while the market speaks favourably – big shout.

Selection:
10pts win – Admodum @ 13/2 MB

……….

7.35 Newcastle: Class 5 Fillies’ Handicap, 1m 4.5f

Soloist looks a possible improver for the switch to Tapeta as Camelot has quite a fine record on this surface, even more so with fillies. This 3-year-old also showed a bit of promise already when a good runner-up at Carlisle in June.

She ran to a topspeed rating 70 that day, so currently on 68 official rating, with potential to improve for the surface, as well a still being rather lightly raced, supports the notion that Soloist could be well handicapped today.

The drop in trip looks positive; only thing I worry about is the potential pace angle and that she may sit off the pace in a slowly run race. Otherwise there isn’t much to beat here and I suspect she is certainly better than a <70 mark.

Selection:
10pts win – Soloist @ 7/2 MB

Wednesday Selections: May, 1st 2019

Newmarket Rowley Mile after race

Finished April with a winner and thanks to that with a small profit. Ashazuri (6/1) finished her race really nicely and took advantage of the featherweight she carried. It could have been so much better, but both The British Lion and Chaplin Bay only managed third place.

Well, on to May now…. where the flat kicks properly into gear. The Guineas and Kentucky Derby looming large on the horizon – exciting!

…….

5.00 Ascot: Class 4 Handicap, 5 furlongs

Top weight Tomily drops down to class 4 as well as to a sexy mark – he’s an obvious choice in an open contest, where many could put claim on running well, but few appear truly well handicapped.

Tomily ran well enough on his seasonal reappearance in a hot race at Kempton last month. That’s a positive after his form clearly tailed off in the second half of last year.

However he was competing in much hotter grade than this today of much higher marks. He managed to run to TS ratings of 90+ on three occasions in 2018, albeit on the All-Weather. But he was also less than 3 lengths beaten in a strong class 3 sprint at Ripon in May.

So, if Tomily can regain anything near his best today he’ll be hard to beat in hands of a very capable 5lb claimer in the saddle.

Selection:
10pts win – Tomily @ 15/2 MB

……..

7.25 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 7 furlongs

Maazel is frustrating horse to follow, usually having a few issues at the start and then running consistently into trouble, so the last few times on the All-Weather as well as three weeks ago here over course and distance.

He got a few bumps along the way, made up a lot of ground after starting slowly but was squeezed badly inside the final furlong.

He’s down a mark of 55 now. That looks definitely a handy mark, given he ran to higher TS ratings in the past on turf and AW, most recently in March at Lingfield when he ran to a TS rating of 58. So if he can get a clear run in what appears not to be a particularly strong race, he should go close.

Selection:
10pts win – Maazel @ 15/2 MB

Tuesday Selections: April, 30th 2019

DSC_1062

3.25 Brighton: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f

This is quite a poor race for the class is it. A class 3 only in name, in my book. Most of these will struggle in a proper contest of this nature.

CD scorer Double Reflection looks a sure thing to go well, Sweet Charity is an interesting contender.

But I feel bottom weight Ashazuri has massive chance here. With 8st 2lb only to carry, on suitable fast ground, off a handy mark, the only worry is race fitness, given we haven’t seen her this year yet.

Still, this looks a clever bit of race planning if she’s ready to go. She isn’t a mare you’d normally expect to compete in class 3 handicaps. But off a mark of 68, given she has ran to TS ratings of 68 and 72 in the past, she appears potentially handicapped to win.

Selection:
10pts win – Ashazuri @ 6/1 MB

……..

3.55 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 1 mile

With blinkers back on Kafeel looks interesting as he’s also returning to turf for the first time in a year. His record is 6-3-2 with blinkers on, so now down to a mark of 56, a full 12lb lower than twelve months ago here at Brigthon as well, he may be a good thing.

Kafeel appeared revived in first time visor last month at Lingfield over the slightly shorter 7f trip. He travelled supremely well but didn’t get a run until very late.

Judged on past performances and TS ratings he could be handicapped to win today, even though it remains to be seen whether he truly appreciates the uniqueness of Brighton.

Selection:
10pts win – Kafeel @ 11/1 MB

……

4.25 Brighton: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Power son The British Lion had little chance to show his besto n turf yet, though on the All-Weather he won a couple of races already, including a 7f handicap back in January. He’s 3lb lower than when winning that day, where he also ran to a TS rating of 71.

As this is only hith 5th start on turf, and the times before he raced over different trips and higher marks, I feel there could be still a bit of improvement to come. If not that, then certainly he has shown to be a bit better than that – if only on AW for now.

Interestingly, his sire has a tremendous record over 7f, as well as on fast ground and also here at Brighton. In a race where not much jumps out, he should have a good chance to get his head in front.

Selection:
10pts win – The British Lion @ 9/2 MB

……

5.20 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 7 furlongs

I feel the short priced favourite has a bit to do to overcome a career highest mark. There are far more interesting horses in the field. Such as lightly raced Algaffaal, consistent Chosen World or course specialist Chaplin Bay.

At given prices he’s my choice today. A good year ago he won a similar race off his current mark. In fact he won twice over course and distance of 74, and was placed in two more races of higher ratings later last year.

Chaplin Bay ran well on his seasonal reappearance in a hot race nearly two weeks ago – a fair 3rd place finish off a pound higher should see him stripping fitter now.

Selection:
10pts win – Chaplin Bay @ 6/1 PP

Sunday Selections: April, 21st 2019

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

Junoesque (5/1) was punted of the boards last night at Brighton – thankfully she emerged as the winner of the final race on the card – this time, unlike on Friday, it was the ‘lucky last’! That’s been two nice winners this week – all in for a hat-trick?

:::::::::

5.15 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Without a win in 17 starts, Captain Dion may finally found the ideal opportunity to get his head in front again. The grey changed yards earlier this year and ran with plenty of promise on his two starts since returning to the track.

A pipe opener at Newcastle over 7f, followed by a strong 3rd place finish in a competitive Handicap here over course and distance – that piece of form looks particularly strong as it has worked really well already.

It was a first run on Southwell’s fibresand that day, Captain Dion didn’t seem to mind it at all, in fact looks a sort likely to be pretty effective. The handicapper has been lenient, Captain Dion dropped another pound, down to 59. He’s also dropping down in class today.

There may a be a bit of improvement to come for Captain Dion’s second run on fibresand – his sire has quite an excellent record here. The jockey/trainer combo of 3lb laiming Gabriele Malune and Ivan Furtado is a strong one – it’s also Malune’s only ride today.

Selection:
10pts win – Captain Dion @ 6/1 MB

Saturday Selections: April, 20th 2019

DSC_1062

Good Friday could have been a great Friday if Landing Night wouldn’t have been beaten in a tight finish in the ‘unlucky last’ at Newcastle. Thankfully Matterhorn got me out of jail (7/1) what would have been otherwise a painful day.

……..

4.45 Brighton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

This is a competitive race; I can make good cases for half of them, so backing the favourite doesn’t seem wise. Still, already a course and distance winner off 3lb higher in similarly fast conditions last year, could be supremely well handicapped.

The 4-year-old, despite a poor overall record, ran to a TS rating of 70 when winning here last year; the form looks solid enough to believe it was a true running. He had a good seasonal comeback run an the All-Weather lately, so fitness is assured.

Interesting jockey booking with young Cieren Fallon on board, who’s worth every pound of his 7lb claim as he proved with worthiness on the All-Weather this year already.

Selection:
10pts win – Swissal @ 7/2 MB

……..

7.50 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 1 mile

Twice a course and distance scorer, Junoesque returns to her happy hunting ground. Those were her only victories to date, they came here last season on fast ground as well. She’s pretty much the same mark, give or take a pound, and proved in the past to be capable of running to a bit higher than that.

In fact Junoesque ran to a TS rating of 58 on both occasions when winning here at Brighton, as well as to 54 in another race – suggesting, if conditions are right, she as good, if not even a little bit better than her current 55 rating.

Fitness has to be trusted on her seasonal reappearance. But this looks an ideal opportunity to get another win on the board.

Selection:
10pts win – Junoesque @ 5/1 MB

Tuesday Selections: October, 9th 2018

DSC_1062

1.20 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 5.5f

The usual fast ground at Brighton even in October – this makes it an ideal opportunity for CD winner Archimedes, who landed a similar race this summer on similar ground.

You can draw a line through his last run, also here at Brighton, when he missed completely the break as the hood was removed too late, or so it seemed.

Archimedes is on his hast last winning mark, he 59 rating he’s won of here in early July. He ran well enough in defeat in his subsequent handful of starts and with ideal conditions remains one of the more likely win candidates in this race.

Selection: 
10pts win – Archimedes @ 12/1 PP

………..

2.25 Brighton: Class 5 Nursery, 7f

Handicap debutant Red Armour makes plenty of appeal thanks to a workable opening mark and handy 3lb claim from an apprentice in the saddle, but I feel Nayslayer is the one who clearly underestimated here.

Both in terms of value for his most recent win as well the price on offer – Nayslayer ran a handful of fine races in defeat, before getting off the mark at Chelmsford over 6f last month. That was a strong race, and even though he had an absolute featherweight to shoulder, previous forms proved he is well up to the grade.

That last day he held on strongly, running all the way to the line and beyond, giving the impression and additional furlong may not be the issue. Only a 4lb hike in the mark, this doesn’t look a stronger race and he should be home on turf much the same way.

Selection:
10pts win – Nayslayer @ 6/1 Coral