Jumby is out out and that opens up this race. I remain somewhat intrigued by Mostabshir, blinkers fitted, down in trip today.
If the ground dries out it’s going to help him quite a lot. I could see him ridden quite prominently and if this turns out to be a muddling affair he’s got potentially the gears. But it’s hard to be excited after his last two runs, truth told, and I want to see some spark first.
The most solid and proven option should be Pogo, though. He was a massive eye-catcher in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot and ran pretty well in the Criterion Stakes last months.
Possibly he did a little bit too much in the middle part of the race and it may have been a benefit to race on the far side as well. It was a strong run, nonetheless, and he confirmed the promise shown at Royal Ascot.
After a poor time in Dubai, the Queen Anne was a significant return to form – a performance that warranted serious upgrading.
He was most likely ridden with the aim to preserve his limited stamina over the stiff Ascot mile there and had too much to do from the rear of the field.
Yet, the way he made serious progress on the far side, quickening into the fastest part of the race, away from the pace as well, was seriously impressive.
He couldn’t keep up the effort over the stiff final furlong but then he’s a 7 furlongs specialist. The more the ground hopefully dries out today the better for him, of course.
Royal Ascot 2023 saw many memorable performances, in victory as in defeat. Here’s a list of horses that caught my eye during the last week at Royal Ascot.
……
Tuesday, 20/06/2023
2.30 – Queen Anne Stakes:
Clearly the best finishing here was favourite Inspiral. She was fastest through the last five furlongs but was at a disadvantage having to come from well off the pace with a run on the wide outside of the field, away from the pace and possibly without cover much earlier than ideal.
She is a suspect starter, a tricky individual, but obviously top-class. She was the best horse in the race and simply unfortunate the way the race developed.
Whether she can back up this performance remains to be seen. She ran a 100+ speed rating here, for the second time in her career.
Inspiral looks to have the measure of the older milers but remains tactically vulnerable to any more straightforward and prominently ridden horse in a race where the pace isn’t red hot, as well as once she meets the Classic generation.
The biggest eyecatcher to note for the future was Pogo, especially once he drops down in trip. He was certainly ridden with the aim to preserve his limited stamina over the stiff Ascot mile.
He had too much to do from the rear of the field but the way he made serious progress on the far side, quickening into the fastest part of the race, away from the pace as well, even more disadvantaged than Inspiral perhaps, was seriously impressive.
He couldn’t keep up the effort over the stiff final furlong. This performance demonstrated he’s still in strong form, though. He may be underestimated when he drops to a more suitable trip the next time as his recent form reads poorly on paper.
The lower to middle drawn horses dominated. In that context Anaf’s effort for third is noteworthy. I’d be not too sure whether he’s able to repeat such huge performance, though. He’s not really shown to belong in this class and his effort petered out quickly in the final half furlong.
Even more impressive was Twilight Call. Badly squeezed right after the start, he found himself at the rear of the field and gave ground away early on when switching to the far side.
He didn’t get a run until very late, in fact only got into the clear just over half a furlong from home, yet finished the joint fastest final furlong split and second best for the last four furlongs.
A strong pace, minimum trip and decent to fast ground are his optimum. This was a clear return to form and he’ll be dangerous in the right conditions. Though, he’s far from a prolific winner, given that he needs everything to fall right.
Paddington was in a different league to the rest. He’s quickly proving himself to be the best of the three-year-old milers. He has the speed and the stamina and didn’t get an ideal trip. Still won easily.
Clear second best in the race was Charyn, I believe. The only one who could somewhat make an impression in the home straight and ran home the fastest final furlong, even though “fast” was relative in this case.
He came from off the pace, which wasn’t ideal, and as a consequence turned wide for a challenge. Class probably got him through the finish more so than stamina.
I’m not sold on his stamina for a properly run mile. He was eyecatching at the Curragh as well in the Irish 2000 Guineas, though that wasn’t a fast race.
A drop to 7 furlongs looks ideal. With a solid pace and decent ground he could be an intriguing runner. Has an entry for the 7f Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh next month.
The best horse won on the day. Royal Champion gave ground away all the time, yet that ensured he was in the right position when it mattered most. He can win a Group race.
So may be Checkandchallenge. He’s already a Group 3 winner, and often runs consistently well, although equally as consistently found out for class in Group 2 level and above.
He was restrained from a very wide draw here, had a lot to do as he entered the home straight but ran home extremely well. In fact, he finished the last four furlongs the best in his first attempt over 10 furlongs.
On pedigree he has scope to stretch out and could be interesting back in Listed or Group 3 class over this trip. He’s yet to impress on speed ratings, but I feel in the right race (could also be a strongly run mile) he could finally run to something significant. This performance was hugely encouraging.
So was King Of Conquest. He was caught wide early from his draw, before settling at the back of the field. He also had a lot to do from there as he turned wide to run home strongly, without getting beaten up late.
He’s still progressive, achieved a career-best speed rating here and deserves a crack at a Group 3 or perhaps even one of the lesser Group 2 races over this trip.
Bertinelli had a wide draw and top weight to overcome. He was taken off his feet during the frantic early fractions but made strong progress from 4f out as he turned wide, touched a rival as they entered the straight and ran home strongly.
He achieved a 104 speed rating. That is Group class and would give him a shot at a Group 1 even. I have maintained my belief in his class for a long time and am somewhat surprised that we saw him here and not in the Irish Derby.
He stays well and could go up in trip as well, which may be less competitive. The Leger or perhaps Irish version for that matter, would be intriguing.
Land Legend is the other horse who made a huge impression. He was slowly away yet again, and had a lot to catch up early on. After the first two furlongs he was then quicker through the next part of the race than those that finished in the placings.
He was stuck behind a wall in the home straight, though, until 2f out as he quickened nicely, as one of the few actually able to quicken, before getting badly short of room at the final furlong marker again.
Slowly away in nearly all his starts, he gives the field often a head-start. Nonetheless, if he could somehow manager to get better out, he’d be well handicapped off his mark and may have options beyond Handicaps as well.
The two early leaders on the far side make appeal for the future for different reasons. Quick out of the gate and doing way too much too soon, especially in the first two furlongs, was Forca Timao.
He faded badly, as one would expect. The drop to a mile didn’t yield in a return to form, seemingly. Though, he strikes me as oddly campaigned. He ran a huge race in a slowly run Gold Cup Heritage handicap at Newbury, but doesn’t look like one who truly stays that trip.
He may stretch out well to a mile, ultimately, but a drop to 7 furlongs would be most intriguing. He may offer some upside then, especially if the handicapper is kind and drops him below 90.
If the handicapper is kind to Thunder Ball and doesn’t raise him too much, if at all, for his 3l beaten 4th place he remains an intriguing runner as well.
Despite helping to push that hot early pace, he was there in front for a long time, fighting strongly and showing excellent attitude.
He was very impressive in a Novice Stakes in May and could have more to offer. A drop down to 7 furlongs wouldn’t be a worry at all, may be even ideal.
The winner was the best horse in the race and gives this form a strong look. Some of those behind him can be marked up and deserve another chance.
Expolanet is an obvious one. from the #11 draw caught wide early, and for most of the race, he was positioned in midfield, gradually progressing, using more energy in the first half compared to Waipiro.
He turned wide and lost a bit of momentum, which he quickly regained before getting hampered 1.5f from home. He got going again, but that was the moment the winner went through and kicked on. He held on well for 2nd.
A clear run and he finishes perhaps only a lengths behind the strong winner. Didn’t impress on speed ratings yet but caught the eye when unfortunate in a hot race at Newbury.
Bolster ran in the same colours. He ran green in and keenly in the early part, jumped to his right, gave the eventual winner a bump.
Was closer to the pace than most that finished ahead of him. Made good progress upon entering the straight, but received a bad bump by the shifting front-runner 2f out. Got going again, but short of room 1f out once again.
Lightly raced and definitely more to come. Not sure he wants further and on pedigree a drop to a mile wouldn’t look like a bad thing either, perhaps.
Danny Tudhope gave Live Your Dream and inspired ride from the front, quickly overcoming the wide draw. He did way too much in the first half of the race and had no business finishing so well.
A huge run, he obviously has stamina in abundance but also tactical speed as was on evidence here. He achieved a superb 101 speed rating and he warrants a step up into pattern class.
Has only entries in Handicap company and that may be a lot tougher than so some of the Listed or Group 3 contest even.
The widest draw wasn’t a help for Moracana who was slowly away, perhaps by design. She settled in rear, trailing, and having a lot to do turning for home. She made good progress but behind a wall of horses and repeatedly short of room, until switched to the wide outside inside the final furlong for a strong finish.
She obviously stays strongly, could move up in trip, but perhaps 12 furlongs with a lot of pace are ideal. She could land another of these big handicaps with a better draw, but also up to Listed level and not out of it in a Group 3 possibly.
The “rating horse” won. Maybe Pyledriver isn’t quite the old force anymore but he’s still very good after his long absence. The form looks strong on speed ratings and the runner-up enhanced his credentials significantly in my view.
West Wind Blows took over the lead after the first furlong and from there on set a red hot pace for the first half of the race, especially his third furlong was super hot, and possibly cost him in the finish.
He was slightly hampered by the winner in the closing stages, but in truth had little more to give in the home straight. This should be good form, he ran to a super 103 speed rating, confirming the huge impression he made at Longchamp prior, where he ran to 105.
He gets the trip, just. Over 10 furlongs where he can dominate he’s probably even more dangerous. The Eclipse is an option, possibly even a race like the Irish Champion Stakes could be of real interest.
Albasheer made up a gigantic amount of ground from last position 2f out to finish like a train in the final furlong. He was slowly into stride, despite first-time blinkers. A tricky sort, and hard to trust, althoug talented when he can put it all together.
Khanjar travelled strongly to the two furlong marker, but got carried over by the eventual winner and as a consequence was a bit short of room, lost his momentum and never found it back. He ran home nicely under an easy ride, though.
He caught the eye prior at Hamilton and looks ready to land a big one. But a tricky sort who can make life difficult for himself, as he was a bit slowly away here as well.
Jim Bolger’s only runner during the week was a significant eyecatcher for the fact that the lightly raced colt was still winless after four starts, but did well in hot company and was well backed on the day.
Cuban Dawn had a wide draw and didn’t really settle too well, as he seemed raw and green at the back of the field, at times outpaced, wandering around as well.
He made good progress from 3f out but found himself short of room over 1f out and didn’t get a hard time to run home eventually.
He colt is under the Australian ownership of the Waterhouse/Bolt yard, with the aim to get him over to Australia after this season, as they purchased him for about £300k and have advertised him as one with significant upside.
He was thrown into the deep end on debut in a listed race, when far from disgraced 4th behind Paddington. Placed in two more hot maiden races, his opening mark of 91 looks exploitable.
I think he could drop back to a mile when he has an entry during Irish Derby weekend, if there’s pace.
That was Royal Ascot. A frantic week. I definitely got sucked into more than in preceding years, for better or for worse.
Two big winners clearly helped. Especially as I continue to go through a pretty rotten spell with the ‘bread and butter’ stuff.
Hence it’s positive to see many Ascot selections outran their often big odds. beside the winners Waipiro (12/1) and Royal Champion (33/1), there were plenty of placed ones at big odds (Inquisitively 3rd @ 20/1, Bucanero Forte 3rd @ 19/1, Remarquee 2nd at 33/1).
No good for the P/L as win only backer, but good for the morale. And that’s certainly needed to keep the morale up as Saturday was another hugely disappointing blank, as my handicappers found ways to get beat.
Essme and Huddle Up got close, Shine’s Ambition looked with less than a furlong he may have it. Wasn’t to be. And it weighs on my mind. I know I got way too aggressive this month.
Perhaps it was simply the wrong time for it. Or it was mostly bad luck…. or perhaps lack of good judgement. That’s for another day to determine.
……..
6.45 Pontefract: Class 3 Handicap, 6f
This appears to be a class 3 0-90 in the name only. It’s a big field, but not a competitive race. The pace scenario and draw takes more than half the the field out in addition.
I wouldn’t be too sure whether Rathbone could truly deliver in a proper class 3 Handicap these days, but he showed clear signs of a revival the last two times and has fallen to a tasty mark.
He’s one you’d hope can go forward from a solid #6 draw – this year he has shown better early gate speed, so I’m hoping he’ll do the same today.
Eight days ago his run at York in a competitive Handicap was certainly a highly encouraging performance.
Rathbone showed excellent early speed, was quick through the first four furlongs before gradually tiering. He was probably advantaged by riding on the far side, but still did very well to stay in front for long, before going backwards from 1 furlong out.
The preceding 3rd place effort at Doncaster was also a strong effort as he was significantly quicker through the first four furlongs than the winner and runner-up.
Both forms stand up and look strong. He lost another couple of pounds, down to 79 – he won off 90 and ran to a 86 speed rating last summer still. Most likely he’s not quite as good these days but with conditions to suit and a track and pace scenario putting him possibly at an advantage today he’s on a dangerous mark.
Waipiro delivered the goods. He won with so much in hand – I was hopeful he’d be too good for this field with a clear run, but this performance was a surprise, especially given the way the race panned out.
He definitely did it the hard way. It didn’t look like it would happen for a long time. A bad bump by a rival soon after the start, lit up, far off the pace, didn’t seem to travel well, the gap wasn’t opening…. until it magically did and whoosh off he was, never to be seen again by his rivals.
Let’s not forget what a huge eyecatcher he was in the Derby, and also how well he ran twice earlier this season. A drop to 10 furlongs, with a good pace… he was always to go close if he could get a run.
Not unhappy with Physique. He was right there for a long time. He faded in the final furlong, but that’s okay. It was a run for the money and a big price.
Good week overall; yet, longing for a “normal” winner in some random class 5 or 6 Handicap as well. Tomorrow?
…….
4.20 Ascot: Coronation Stakes, 1m
It’s hard, if not even impossible to oppose Tahiyra after her sensation performance in the Irish 1000 Guineas where she quickened away like a true superstar.
That performance wasn’t quite as strong on speed figures as it was visually, but the Dermot Weld trained filly produced a career-best and excellent 104 speed rating at Newmarket in the British equivalent last month.
She’s clearly extremely talented, at the same time possibly vulnerable given this is her third Group 1 in the space of six weeks on the quickest ground she has ever encountered.
Dermot Weld was on the record saying prior to the 1000 Guineas that he felt the filly could have done with an additional two weeks of preparation. Has she been rushed to run twice in this short space of time?
There are dangers here, also from a tactical point of view. On the round course it can be an advantage to make all or be certainly close to the pace. You would think Mediate could be in a prime spot when turning for home. Runner-up at the Curragh, this race could be run to suit her perfectly.
That says, bar Meditate, there is little opposition likely good enough to match a Tahiyra, even if not quite at her peak. Unless one of the other fillies in the race can step up significantly.
The one I would have hopes to improve significantly with experience is Remarquee. She was a huge disappointment at Newmarket, where she didn’t seem happy at any stage and found zero once under pressure.
But I can’t shake off the huge impressions she gave in her first two career runs, once on debut last year at Salisbury when she finished like a train, and no less so at Newbury in the Fred Darling two weeks ago.
She looked raw and green on both occasions. The speed figures weren’t strong, but her finishing speed screams talent. The better ground is intriguing. Even though her two wins came on soft, I have the feeling decent ground can bring out more improvement.
Prior to the Guineas Ralph Beckett was quite hopeful that he would have a potential star filly on his hands. There is still the potential for her to turn out and become a proper Group 1 filly.
Whether the race is going to be run to suit remains to be seen. Nonetheless, at the given prices she’s worth a shot at this.
10pts win – Remarquee @ 33/1
……
5.00 Ascot: Class 2 Handicap, 1m
Coppice is an intriguing filly, and one from my horses to follow list this season. There’s every chance she’s well handicapped off 97 after her successful return to form in a Novice Stakes where she made amends for a disappointing defeat in the Nell Gwyn.
She hasn’t achieved any speed rating of note yet, and I’m not yet convinced that she truly gets a mile when the pace is on.
This test in a large field and with a stiff finish doesn’t strike me as the right one, especially as she can be slowly away as well. She’s certainly too short to back.
The pace side should be the stands’ side, with high numbers likely to dominate. That brings a filly into play that caught the eye earlier this month at Kempton.
Marksman Queen finished seriously well in a Handicap there over a mile, nearly overcoming a sluggish start as she travelled well off the pace was held together until about 2f out before showing a strong response when asked for an effort to come home much the best.
She couldn’t quite get back to the 4-year-old winner, who ran well for a long time in the Kensington Palace earlier this week.
She wasn’t slowly away in any of her two starts prior, hence I hope it was just ‘one of those days’. A poor start would severely compromise her chances in this competitive field.
But if she gets way well, then she could be very well handicapped, off 86, only 2lb higher than at Kempton. She won well at Southwell on her seasonal reappearance as well.
I reckon that perhaps the hood took off some of her early excitement at Kempton. She was keen in her previous races. Hopefully she is better used to it now.
Given her breeding Marksman Queen may have options to move up in trip, but a strongly run mile looks ideal for now. She should also improve for switching to turf on fast ground.
10pts win – Marksman Queen @ 15/1
……..
5.35 Ascot: Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes, 1m 4f
King Of Steel ran a massive race in the Derby on his seasonal reappearance and a return to that level of form will see him certainly with a prime chance. Can he repeat such a tremendous run?
Different track, different pace scenario, stiff finish. And he got the splits when needed, having enjoyed the near perfect race. He was clearly beaten by a brilliant horse on the day, and the same opposition isn’t present here.
But taking into account that this is going to be a totally different type of race, one can question his odds-on price tag. Also, I am not sold that he would stay a properly run 12 furlongs, especially with a stiff finish.
Also: on speed ratings he ran to a fine treble digit figure of 100. But the Aiden O’Brien trained Continuous achieve a 99 speed figure at York in the Dante over a trip possibly slightly short of his optimum when he also needed the run, most likely.
Continuous is one my horses to follow this year and I can forgive him that poor French Derby run. He didn’t have any real excuses, other than that it was a competitive renewal. So wellbeing is taken with some question marks attached.
Ryan Moore remains quite positive whenever he speaks about Continuous, so that’s certainly noteworthy. There should be more to come, given he didn’t have an ideal spring preparation, and strikes me as a relentless galloper who should enjoy Ascot.
The other one I do like is Artistic Star. I liked him for the Derby, and even though things didn’t work out on the day or him, the inexperienced colt showed great promise in the second half of his race.
After a solid start he didn’t travel well, niggled at various stages. Perhaps inexperience in such a big, tight field was to blame.
Three furlongs from home he was relegated to last even, before the penny seemed to drop and he motored home in the 4rd fastest final 3f split to pass many tired horses.
He’ll have learned plenty and remains at this stage an exciting prospect after two excellent career performances prior where he ran strong speed ratings for an inexperienced horse.
I’ll split my stake here: I really only can see three horses to win. Those are the aforementioned. Because Arrest over 12 furlongs, fast ground, stiff finish, looks not the test to suit him.
Fiftyshadesofred was rather unfortunate the other day at Catterick when he missed the start somewhat, as he can do, got behind and stuck on the inside rail and found himself badly short of room at a crucial stage over 3 furlongs out.
He ran pretty well in the circumstances and confirmed the excellent performance shown weeks earlier at Ayr.
That day he overcame a sluggish start and went forward to lead at a red hot pace. He found plenty under pressure and was only beaten late by two rivals from off the pace.
Before that he didn’t stay a mile but two runs back ran seriously well at Chelmsford over 7 furlongs. That looks his trip, and the fact he ran to 65 and 64 speed ratings now the last two times over this trip, on two different surfaces, gives his form credibility.
Another pound down, he looks seriously well-handicapped off 64, as he ran to a 65 speed rating at Ayr, in line with another 64 at Chelmsford in April.
This straight track may suit him better than sharp turning tracks. The field is competitive but with the 5lb claim of Connor Planas he should have too much in hand.
10pts win – Fiftyshadesofred @ 4/1
…….
5.16 Redcar: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
A race for maidens. Some of the higher rated horses make appeal as this is easier for them. But I’m intrigued by Lola’s Moment, who knocked on the door a few times before and ran a huge race last time at Wetherby.
She was slightly sluggish away but quickly found her stride and moved forward to track a hard pace. Eventually she took up the lead from the 2 furlongs marker until she got heavily challenged from over one furlong out.
She briefly accepted the challenge before she ran out of gas and faded away.
This was her comeback run after a break since September 2022. The filly looks potentially exposed but may be capable of progressing as a 3yo. Sprint trips look her game.
She’s a full-sister to recent 5.5f winner Alfred Cove (OR57). As she now drops to a similar rating she may be underestimated over a fast five with a good draw that she has got here.
10pts win – Lola’s Moment @ 10/1
………….
7.50 Musselburgh: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
I firmly believe this is Latin Five’s for the taking. He is in excellent form, as evidence by his last two runs. Especially last time out at Nottingham he ran to a level of form that should see him hard to beat here if he can repeat.
He travelled seriously well on the far side, covered up behind the pace. Pulled out over 2f out and kicked on well to lead, before late beaten by a horse on the stands’ side.
The acceleration mid-race was quite something, for this level. He also achieved a 53 speed rating. He ran to 51 and 54 this season as well, so that 1lb hike doesn’t make too much of a difference.
He’s certainly well handicapped on last-years form. Now clearly back in form he’s the one to beat with a good draw to attack from as well.
Huge run by Inquisitively to finish a gallant 3rd in the Windsor Castle today. Another big price hitting the post but the ball didn’t get over the line, sadly.
Bay Bridge didn’t get the best of runs but never looked like he could challenge anyway. Wen Moon was an ugly watch. Graham Lee gave the gelding a shocking ride, willingly or unwillingly…. Azaim a big drifter and beaten early.
…..
5.00 Ascot: Britannia Stakes, 1m
As competitive as it gets, yet I feel quite strong about Physique, who looks seriously overpriced if he could settle in the early stages.
That’s the key question as he moves up in trip again. There’s enough to believe the trip won’t be an issue stamina wise, especially the way he finished last time out.
But he can be keen early on, and that would be a deadly sin in this race. His young rider doesn’t have all that much experience, either. There is a clear risk.
On the other hand, plenty of pace looks to be present in this field. It should be a fast race, and that will suit Physique, who should have a solid chance from the #8 draw to get into a prominent position, as he likes to be, normally.
I hope connections don’t opt for an experiment where they hold him up, in the hope to preserve his stamina. If that is the case you can turn off the TV after the first two furlongs. It’s another risk, worth taking at the price, though.
Physique couldn’t have been more impressive earlier this month at Goodwood, which was a superb follow-up from an already excellent performance a month earlier over the same course and distance.
He got caught wide and without cover from the highest draw and as a consequence struggled to find cover pretty much for the majority of the race.
The gelding was clearly lit up and his chances decimated by the halfway mark. He also was ever so slightly impeded by a tiering front-runner from 2 furlongs out before he finished extremely strongly – in fact, he ran home the fastest over the last two furlongs, regardless.
It’s fair to say with a better draw and a little bit more in-running luck, he would have won. Still lightly raced, Physique has the scope to continue his progress, especially off his current 91 handicap mark.
He has shown to handle fast ground without a problem, so drying conditions aren’t a worry. He looks ideally suited to this type of test, if the pace is on and is most likely well-handicapped.
10pts win – Physique @ 35/1
……….
5.35 Ascot: Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes, 1m 2f
I’m a fan of Epictetus, and not only because of his name. An incredibly consistent colt, he ran to 93, 97 and 91 speed ratings this year in his three runs and mixed it with strong opposition the last two times.
He may struggle to win a Group 1, but down in class he’s a massive runner over a course and distance, on possibly perfect ground.
However, this is a competitive renewal of the race. Progressive Drumroll has to give weight away but will be suited by the likely strong pace.
Torito is another serious prospect for the Gosden yard. Lightly raced, progressive and a fine winner of a hot Handicap at Epsom earlier this month.
Caernarfon ran a super race in the Oaks to finish a strong third. The drop in trip is likely to suit her and she looks competitive against the males down in grade.
The likes of unexposed Expolanet, or Kevin Ryan’s Heron Stakes winner Captain Winter can’t be easily dismissed either.
One who I feel is almost certain to enjoy the test, and appears overpriced, is Waipiro, though.
He endured a disaster of a run in the Derby where he was slowly away, as a consequence was caught behind a wall of horses, trailed the field and had to come around very wide for a run on the outside.
He made excellent progress from 4f out around Tattenham Corner, before his effort fizzled out from 2f out, somewhat understandably.
There is also every possibility that he didn’t get the trip, in any case. Though, I thought he actually confirmed the promise he showed at Newmarket earlier this season where he kicked on in fine style to win a Novice Stakes, before he finished a strong runner-up in the Lingfield Derby Trial.
Whether he’s a genuine Group 1 horse remains to be seen. He could be underestimated, though, and certainly seems to be underappreciated in the betting in this easier grade as he drops down to 10 furlongs.
He ran to a 97 speed rating at Lingfield also. That stands up seriously well in this field. Yes, others could improve past that, though not too many look potentially capable of that, right now, at least. While Waipiro himself is open to improvement over this trip.
10pts win – Waipiro @ 12/1
…..
5.45 Leopardstown: 47-70 Handicap, 7f
This could be a great opportunity for Punk Poet, who seems overpriced. He drops in grade, this is much easier than all his races this year, over a trip he has no issue with and on ground likely to suit.
He dropped significantly in the ratings over last weeks and is down to a dangerously low 69 handicap mark now. There are clear and obvious reasons for that, though, I felt he hinted a return to some form a few times as well.
Back in April in a hot race over 6 furlongs he travelled strongly and finished well, and last month at the Curragh in a super competitive Apprentice Handicap he showed his usual good early speed and ran well until fading badly from 2 furlongs out in deep ground.
Leopardstown tomorrow should ride a bit better, and that will suit. The pace doesn’t look too hot, so from #8 draw he should be able to move across easily to have an ideal spot behind likely pace setter Maggie And Me or Turbine.
If Punk Poet could find anything close to last summers form in these conditions then he’s a big danger to all.
Last year he won off 82 and 83, also ran to an 82 speed rating. He’s versatile ground- and distance wise but probably 7 furlongs is his optimum.
It needed a 33/1 winner to break this most annoying losing run. Thanks to Royal Champion (16/1 SP) who travelled as wide as sweetly through the race and won, despite carrying a penalty, like a horse in a different league to the rest.
A confident, no-nonsense ride by Jack Mitchell. He seemed to have clear instructions to avoid trouble at all costs. And so he did.
That means my rotten run of 31 conseqeuitive losing selections is over. One more and it would have been the longest losing run ever for me.
It’s a funny game. Some big prices knocked on the door lately. Including Bucanero Fuerte earlier on Tuesday, with a great run for 3rd in the Coventry. But it wasn’t to be. Never mind. Today is a good day.
Also back in profit for the month, of course. Which is the most important thing. Always.
I would hope things turn back to some form of normality now, because they were not normal lately. I haven’t been doing anything fundamentally different and liked most selections, even with the blessing of hindsight.
One a different note: all eyes are on Royal Ascot this week, naturally. My eyes were on the announcement for the final field for the Durban July that took place this morning as well, though. The big race is less than two weeks away.
Final runners, weights and the draw were announced. The draw played a lesser role in the past, though. Class found a way.
Therefore, the #14 draw for Safe Passage – the one I fancy strongly – is less of a negative, as maybe even a blessing in disguise, as it may ensure now that there is actually a price available for him on the day that makes me want to back him.
………
4.20 Ascot: Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, 1m 2f
Small but select field for this renewal of the POW. Questions evolve around the pace. Who’s going to do the donkey work?
Luxembourg showed he can make it all, if needed. But it may fall to Classic Causeway who has shown plenty of good early speed in the US and he may find it hard not to pull his way to the front over this trip, if no other rival moves decisively forward early on.
Last years Belmont Derby winner could be dangerous if allowed a soft lead from the front, though, given his excellent speed. Although, the ground may not be quite fast enough for him and if all things go normal, he simply shouldn’t have the class.
2021 Derby hero Adayar returned successfully to the track at Newmarket in the Gordon Richards a few weeks ago. He confirmed his wellbeing. He ran a huge race in the Champion Stakes back in October, a performance that warranted an upgrade.
If he can run to a similar level of form as a 5-year-old then he’s firmly in the mix. On the other hand, in those five runs since his impressive Epsom success, his best speed rating achieved is a rather lowly 90 – for this grade at least.
My Prospero has hinted plenty of ability throughout his career and was arguably an unfortunate runner-up in the St James’s Palace twelve months ago. He’s yet to convince on speed ratings, though, hence may be found out against the very best here, as otherwise a massive career-best would be required.
Mostahdaf looks a bit short of class as well, if it coms to winning a Group 1. He deserves to be here and take his chance, but doesn’t seem to be top-class.
The same could not be said about Luxembourg and Bay Bridge, as they are multiple Group 1 winners. They meet here once again after their exciting fight in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at Curragh earlier this year.
Luxembourg got the better that day. He was forced to make all with no other pace in the race. He ensured that this was not a test of speed but rather a proper race to the line as evidence by his strong 110 speed rating – a career-best for the colt.
He looked a bit awkward in the closing stages, as he tends to do. At the same time he was brave and gutsy, fending off the challenge from Bay Bridge in the final furlong.
One could argue he had the run of the race. Certainly he got first run and that was possibly an advantage as Bay Bridge got stuck in a pocket all the way to the two furlong marker and only got out with less than 1.5 furlongs to go.
Bay Bridge had to find his stride quickly, and it was impressive to see how quickly he was able to get into top gear. Yet, there wasn’t enough time to run down Luxembourg, though.
On the other hand, Luxembourg may have been too good, anyway. He’s 3/3 over the trip now and clearly is the exceptional colt in line with the the vibes from Aiden O’Brien, who never wavered in his admirations.
Can Bay Bridge make up the half a lengths gap that was between them at the Curragh? Probably. Slightly different track and a different pace scenario can change the outcome.
The 5-year-old should be in his prime right now. And that’s confirmed by the 109 speed rating he ran at the Curragh, and improvement from his a fine 100 performance in the Prix Ganay on his seasonal reappearance.
The ground has been a hot topic of debate all Tuesday. Bay Bridge probably doesn’t love it properly fast. Genuine good ground will be perfect, though, and it looks likely that’s what we’ll have on Wednesday.
Ascot is the place of Bay Bridge’s biggest success, the British Champion Stakes back in October last year. He’s a highly consistent colt, one who usually puts his best foot forward, and nothing less is expected this time.
On everything we know there is little between Luxembourg and Bay Bridge, the two main contenders, in my view – hence from a price point of view Bay Bridge has to be the logical value choice.
10pts win – Bay Bridge @ 7/2
…..
6.10 Ascot: Windsor Castle Stakes, 5f
How is this race going to work out from a pace perspective? There seems to be plenty of early speed. Over the stiff five at Ascot this may develop into a test of who is the fastest over the minimum trip and does stay a bit further than that.
Interpreting the pace map looks tricky, especially the way the sprint races developed on the first day. I make an educated guess and think it probably will develop into a mad dash to the line where everyone from anywhere could win.
In any case, the one I like against the field is Inquisitively. He has to step up to challenge the better fancied runners, like Barnwell Boy, who ran in impressive 90 speed rating on debut, or seriously progressive Maximum Impact.
Especially Barnwell Boy looks a rock solid favourite, especially if the stands’ side continue to ride faster. He was incredibly impressive on debut, but is a skinny price for the nature of this race.
Inquisitively in contrast, has only a 2nd place to his name that came in a class 5 Novice race at Windsor. Far from sexy. However, that form rates strongly in my view and may be underestimated.
For one, the race has worked out well in the meantime, and visuals meet the clock here too.
The overall time as well as the pace they ran for the first three- and four furlongs compared strongly to the other 5- and 6 furlong sprints for older horses on the same card.
That was mainly down to Inquisitively, who overcame the wide draw as he started quickly and gradually moved over the to the stands’ rail where he led and set a hot pace.
It was impressive to see him outbattle the eventual third, who had a better draw and was ridden with more restraint and who has won in the meantime as well.
That was over 6 furlongs and he appeared to have no issue with a drop to the minimum trip. In fact, I got the impression a stiff five may be an ideal scenario.
The draw is a question mark. As the going on Tuesday favoured the low numbers on the far side, according to the going stick. But wit no further rain expected I have hopes the track dries out well enough that tomorrow afternoon any bias has evaporated and we should get a fair race.
Since writing this post and backing the horse at big odds earlier today there has been a bit of money for him. Happy with my overall price, but anything lower than 15s and I probably wouldn’t have been writing this, given the competitive nature of this race, being totally honest.
10pts win – Inquisitively @ 20/1
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3.30 Hamilton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Captain Vallo ran a huge race when finishing 3rd at Thirsk last time out. That was his seasonal reappearance and he could hardly have made a bigger impression that day.
He had to overcome the widest draw, far away from he favourable stands’ side. Yet, he travelled strongly in his group, made excellent progress to challenge in the closing stages, before getting tired in the last half furlong.
A superb comeback run. He must be in serious form and this easier race, down into 0-70, gives him a super chance as a winner over the course and distance.
Saying that, he’s not tremendously well-handicapped. But 6 furlongs at Hamilton on decent ground looks an ideal scenario in a race where not much else catches the eye.
10pts win – Captain Vallo @ 7/2
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7.10 Ripon: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
Wen Moon had excuses last time at Nottingham as he hang his race away after making smooth progress in the middle of the race to go upside with the leader.
He showed tendencies before of hanging to his left side, hence, possibly a track with a guiding rail to his left would be ideal. The way the 6f at Ripon rides could provide exactly that.
The #4 draw is perhaps a bit too far away from that guiding rail, though, and a concern to get there early with plenty of pace around, too.
However, cheek-pieces are added and they may help him to focus better in the closing stages, as well as to be sharply away from the gate. He showed solid early speed in the past and is a course winner as well.
His current 83 rating gives him a big chance in this field, judged on his Pontefract victory in class 3 last month. He was disadvantaged by the widest draw and had to settle in rear.
As a consequence he turned widest for home for a run, while going best, as he made smooth progress to hit the front at the final furlong marker before he hang badly to his left. Nonetheless, he won well with plenty in hand I believe.
It was an impressive performance, given the deep ground and doing so against the pace bias. Wen Moon is almost certainly better on decent (not proper fast perhaps) ground. Only 3lb higher than at Pontefract, still lightly raced and gelded during winter – there’s more to come.
10pts win – Wen Moon @ 8/1
…….
8.10 Ripon: Classified Stakes, 6f
I backed Azaim the last two times and seemingly follow this lad over the cliff.
He was incredibly disappointing at Catterick, but was beaten before the race got hot, in fact, because of the way he started and the position he found himself in.
As a 28/1 shot in a hot contest at Carlisle he improved dramatically when sent to the front. He was ran down eventually, but it was a strong effort that confirmed the promise he showed at Musselburgh last month was real.
Judged on those two performances I feel he’s better than all of his rivals here. He looks capable of running to mid 50’s in the right conditions right now, especially judged on that Musselburgh run where first and second appeared quite well-handicapped.
No more excuses, though. He’s got the #9 draw here. Ideal to attack from the front, grab the rail and wave good bye to the rest.
Royal Ascot is nearly upon us. One more sleep. It’s THE most exciting week for any flat racing fan. Brilliant racing, top-class horses. Good ground (hopefully). I love watching it.
Although, from a betting perspective it’s never been a big week for me. Last year I had only three bets the entire week (2 the year before)! Which included the Maljoom race that gives me nightmares to this day.
Hence, I’m somewhat surprised to find myself having as many bets on day one already! Ominous. Certainly given my current form.
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2.30 Ascot: Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes, 1m
One of my favourite races all year, and how can it be any different when my favourite colt Paco Boy made a name for himself in this very race back in 2009: he travalled like a dream, produced for his trademark turn of foot to win in style (shamefully it seems no video footage has survived).
That’s the past. The future is now. And this future shapes like a match-race between Inspiral and Modern Games. At least in the betting.
Current favourite Inspiral (may change by the time of posting) hasn’t been seen since a lackluster effort in the QEII last October. That’s a worry.
However, her victory in the Jacques le Marois last August is the standout piece of form in this field, especially on (more recent) speed ratings. She ran well fresh in the past, and yet it requires a lot of trust to back her at short odds.
Modern Games is the “recent form” horse after his Lockinge Stakes success. He didn’t ran an overly impressive speed rating that day (91) and his career-best 98 from last June in the French Guineas is certainly solid, without being exceptional, especially not for a 9/4 shot in a Group 1.
Native Trail, is the one with the most consistent speed ratings, having ran multiple times to 100+, including three times last year. His comeback run after a break and wind op was okay, but hard to gauge from that whether he’s back to anywhere near his best.
If he is, and you trust him to be, he’s a clear danger and arguably value in the betting, given a stiff mile at Ascot should suit, especially if the pace is on.
Mutasaabeq got the better of Native Trail him at Newmarket in fine style from the front, but couldn’t follow up in the Lockinge. He may well set this race up for someone else, I feel.
Chindit was runner-up in the Lockinge Stakes and his performance warranted an upgrade. He won a Queen Anne Trial on his seasonal debut nicely and is a rock solid chance. For all that, he’s not overly exciting and didn’t impress on speed ratings for a while.
That brings me back to one of he horses I fancied to have a huge 2022: Cash. He was one of my 5 to follow last year. His issues have been well documented and those prevented him from realising his true potential so far.
Given the tremendous impression he made on his debut in October 2021, and then on his seasonal reappearance at Sandown in the Classic Trial in April last year, where he was a seriously unlucky 2nd behind Westover, one may wonder “what if”.
“What if” may be here and now. For one he may get his ideal race: a fast pace to track over a mile that should ensure a test of stamina over the trip. And he looks to be ideally drawn to follow the lead.
I loved his two runs this year. The second behind Chindit over this course and distance when he finished the best in a sprint finish. And when last seen in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown.
He tried to move up in trip, but the pace wasn’t really on and he was – unsurprisingly – way too keen in the first three furlongs. It was still eyecatching to see the way he made smooth progress once the pace increased from over 4f out.
He fell away late but it was a huge effort behind strong Desert Crown and Hukum. Given all the question marks over most in this Queen Anne field, it nearly feels like a drop in class, somewhat.
Cash is a massive price. Too big here. Yes, he’d prefer a bit of rain for ideal conditions, but that’s unlikely to happen now. But track and trip will suit. He’s unexposed and open to improvement. Can he deliver some well needed cash for my decimated betting bank?
10pts win – Cash @ 20/1
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3.05 Ascot: Group 2 Coventry Stakes, 6f
Intriguing race for myriad of reasons. There’s certainly a social media aspect to the race: the clock vs the eye, who’s going to prevail? That’s the simplified narrative of the last few days on Twitter as all the pre-race talk evolves around River Tiber and Asadna.
Aiden O’Brien has been really positive about his lad, River Tiber, who’s 2/2 this year and looked an exciting colt on debut. So is Ryan Moore. That’s definitely something to take serious.
River Tiber must have learned plenty at Naas the next time, where he also bettered his excellent debut 77 speed rating. There is tons more to come, especially as he moves up to 6 furlongs.
Asadna on the other hand, was visually incredibly impressive on debut, but also ran a sensational 90 speed rating. He couldn’t have done more to impress that day at Ripon.
Both are drawn at opposing ends of the field. The way this race develops from a pace angle could decide who’s more likely to win. They have solid pace around them to potentially provide a lead into the finish.
However, the pace may develop more toward the middle and higher drawn horses here, and that may play into the hands of Asadna, but also could bring other horses into the equation.
There are many tasty prices on offer, and it’s not easy in a field full of unexposed horses to make the ‘right’ call.
A case can be certainly made for Army Athos, who was visually an impressive winner on debut, who seems an uncomplicated sort as well and may provide good early speed from gate #12. He ran a low speed rating, though, hence has to show more here if he wants to go all the way.
Amo Racing has some interesting contenders: Cuban Thunder looks potentially well drawn between speed horses, to get a nice lead, if he’s good enough to take it.
Stable mate Bucanero Fuerte could be even better drawn, close to likely speed horses Army Ethos and US raider Fandom. He could be in an excellent spot two furlongs from home.
He impressed me on debut at the Curragh early in the season over the minimum trip, as he travelled well, tracked the pace and kicked clear in impressive manner eating up the uphill finish at Irish flat racing HQ as he ran to a fine 80 speed rating as well.
🏇 Bucanero Fuerte (3/1 fav) powers home in the opening 2-Y-O maiden under Kevin Stott for Adrian Murray. Dare we say it, but is he Royal Ascot material? pic.twitter.com/URQbHdomkP
It was rain softened ground, so the form may be a bit suspect, and hasn’t worked out all that well in the meantime. Nonetheless, the way he finished that day – strongly sprinting all the way to the line – suggests that moving up to 6 furlongs will certainly to his advantage. He’s a full-brother to some smart siblings. Whether he handles the better ground is the key question.
Bobsleight and Haatem, first and third at Epsom recently, are others who are interesting as they appear progressive and have a bit of experience already.
Hard to know how good Fandom is for Wesley Ward. What’s to be expected is the colt to show blistering early speed. Though, there are many with solid early pace in this race this time and also right beside him. I feel he may burn his fuel too early.
The other one who may get a nice lead into the race, drawn more on the outside of the pace I expect to come toward the centre of the track, is debut Windsor scorer Chief Mankato.
The form may be underestimated, because it was just a Windsor Class 5 Novice race. However, it seemed a surprisingly hot one. The form looks strong, has worked out well in the meantime, and visuals meat the clock here.
Even though he was possibly well drawn, he didn’t get the ideal race early one with shifting horses pushing him ever so slightly back. His acceleration from 3f out, though, was impressive, and he reeled the leaders in to run home strongly.
The overall time as well as the pace they ran for the first three- and four furlongs compares strongly to the other 5- and 6 furlong sprints for older horses on the same card. This lad must have a serious engine.
Ascot Adventure ran a huge race when last seen at Beverley, and left on the same mark, 5lb below his last winning mark, he looks a big chance with a good draw and pace scenario possible in his favour.
The Beverley race was a hot affair. He moved quickly forward to push a strong pace as part of a leading duo. He rolled down the hill and overall ran an inefficient race.
Still, he was able to actually kick on once again in the home straight – Impressive to see, before getting understandably tired late.
He achieved a joint career-2nd best speed rating here, even though 7.5 furlongs may stretch his stamina to the absolute limit.
The slight drop back to 7 furlongs here at Thirsk will suit. He acts in all sort of ground conditions, so any rain is not a major worry. Off 80 with the #4 draw and a track that favours those up with the pace he looks to have a serious chance.
10pts win – Ascot Adventure @ 5/1
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4.20 Ascot: Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes, 1m
What a race! Pretty much all the right horses are here. This presents also the opportunity for English and Irish 2000 Guineas winners to meet.
The ground could play a major role in who’s going to brevail in this battle. It looks pretty clear that Chaldean prefers cut in the ground. It may not rain enough between now and tomorrow afternoon to turn Ascot to proper soft.
I also feel Chaldean got pretty much the run of the race at Newmarket. He ran a fine treble-digit sped rating, that gives the performance substance, and yet I have reservations, not least at his short price.
If the ground stays decent enough I would certainly favour Paddington. I was present at the Curragh three weeks ago and saw an individual with plenty of scope. I loved how he kicked on in the final furlong and he looks an exciting prospect for the future.
In saying that, the fact he hasn’t managed to run a speed rating beyond the 60s is concerning. Perhaps, he didn’t have the opportunity yet, could be a fair argument. He looks capable of doing it, but given his short enough price there is better value to be found.
Royal Scotsman was an excellent third at Newmarket behind Chaldean. He was possibly a little bit unfortunate that day. He flopped at the Curragh and his well being has to be trusted. He should be in the mix if healthy.
Craven winner Indestructible bombed out in the Guineas. The Craven performance gives him a chance, if he could be back to that level of form. Galeron ran on well in the Irish equivalent, a bit of an eyecatcher. So was Charyn, who didn’t get the clearest of runs. Both may not be good enough, though, I suspect.
Isaac Shelby was a comfortable in the Greenham with a good speed rating and ran with tons of credit when runner-up in the French Guineas. The #3 draw here is ideal for him to move forward and find a good position. I like him a lot.
Unbeaten Cicero’s Gift has been talked about a lot. He looks open to plenty of improvement. A danger, if he does progress, indeed. However, he has to find quite a bit on speed ratings.
That leaves unexposed Mostabshir. He’s one of my horses to follow after his impressive debut (and sole) run as a juvenile last year at Kempton where he quickened nicely and overcame a wide draw.
His eagerly anticipated seasonal reappearance in the Craven Stakes was disappointing, but he left that run firmly behind when winning a competitive contest at York the next time.
That day he finally looked like the exciting colt we saw on the Kempton polytrack again, an he produced a scintillating turn of foot to win easily by five lengths. If ridden out he’d have won by half a furlong, perhaps.
The pace wasn’t truly on that day, nonetheless an ordinary horse couldn’t do what he did there, I firmly believe. The form also looks strong thanks to the runner-up and fourth who went on to win subsequently.
Impressive! 👀
Mostabshir (Dark Angel) gives a good-looking field a good beating and the St James's Palace entry looks exciting for the Gosdens and Shadwell @yorkracecoursepic.twitter.com/HODcoeYf0r
Nonetheless, on form terms and speed ratings much more is needed here against the best of the three-year-old milers. The likes of Chaldean and Paddington are Classic winners, and Isaac Shelby was a runner-up in the French equivalent. It’s a significant step up from a Novice race at York.
On the other hand, he had only three career runs so far and in two of them he was a hug eyecatcher. It’s also fair to assume that possibly needed the run in the Craven and possibly enjoyed the fast ground at York as well. With that in mind, any significant rain at Ascot could be a concern.
He’s bred to improve with age and experience, though, and I feel there is an awful lot more to come. His dam’s offspring often improve with time. At give prices he looks clearly overpriced given the likely upside.
10pts win – Mostabshir @ 8/1
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5.35 Ascot: Listed Wolferton Stakes, 10f
Saga looks a poor favourite. He may not stay and could struggle for a run. Buckaroo could run over his preferred trip and the yard is quite bullish. Saying that, he hasn’t run a serious speed rating yet.
This is wide open and much will depend on pace and whether horses get a clear run. The one I’m keen on is Royal Champion who caught my eye a number of times last year.
This is a Listed race and he has to carry a penalty which isn’t ideal. Nonetheless, I think he could be capable of giving the weight away as he may well deserve another crack at Group level and he looks significantly overpriced here.
There a a few reasons why he is a big price, the weight penalty aside, and they are valid, though. The #12 draw isn’t ideal. There is plenty of pace and he may be caught wide or too far back. If the rain arrives it could compromise his chances further.
In saying that, right now it seems good ground is the worst to expect on Tuesday afternoon. The gelding has shown to be versatile in his running style, possessing excellent cruising speed, which is what’s needed here in this likely chaotic race.
He drops in class after a poor effort in the Group 2 Huxley Stakes at Chester. That came over 10.5f in the mud and was his comeback run. I thought he ran better than the bare result suggested given he was there right until they turned for home, actually.
He was found out for class in the Champion Stakes in his final race in 2022, but prior to that enjoyed an excellent campaign: two fine victories over 10 furlongs in Handicap and Listed company, and a strong third in the Group 3 Winter Hill Stakes at Windsor.
He ran to a 104 speed rating there – a race that has worked out well in the meantime – and backed that up with an ultra-impressive victory in the Listed Doonside Cup at Ayr where he travelled incredibly strongly and made eyecatching progress from 4f out to win comfortably.
That particular piece of form may not be the strongest on offer, though the way he did it was visually quite taking nd simply confirmed that he’s a proper horse, in my view. The way h quickened was impressive.
If he can run to same level of form that he was able to run to last summer he has a chance to win here, especially if the way the race develops gives him a clear run at it in the home straight.
376.30 points profit, 35 winners and 19% ROI. It was an eventful year with plenty of lessons learned.
2022 was a challenge on many fronts, “on and off the pitch”, so to speak. On the pitch it clearly was an ever dramatic up and down. From the absolute highs of backing the longshot winner in the Melbourne Cup to the absolute lows of backing 31 consecutive losers.
At times I struggled, stumbled and lost confidence in the process that has been tried and trusted for nearly a decade now. Ultimately, though, 2022 proved to be another profitable year.
The process is alive and kicking, still working well enough to produce winners and a green P&L sheet – at the end of the day for a sixth consecutive profitable betting year.
Raw numbers
376.30pts annual profit
19.29% Return of Investment
201 Selections
35 winners
17.41% Strike Rate
8/1 average odds
Selections on turf produced the majority of the annual profit with 310pts; about 141pts from UK selections alone. Irish selections were also profitable this year with about 49pts profit.
The All-Weather shows a 59pts loss. I didn’t back a winner on the sand until late October, in fact. A clear upswing since then, with 156pts profit in the last two months of the year.
As always, outside of UKI things look positive: 13 international bets produced 160pts profit.
On the flat the majority of this years profit came in class 5 and class 6 Handicaps. All but two winners came in races below a mile. No surprise, as that is my main focus, both in terms of class and distances.
Selections in races over the 7 furlongs trip yielded the highest return: 285pts profit from 38 selections. Closely followed by the minimum trip that yielded 237pts profit for seven winners from 25 bets.
In contrast 6 furlongs produced a whopping 147pts loss from 36 selections. 37 selections over the mile trip resulted in 95pts loss. Middle to longer distances were a loss-making endeavour, too.
I’m not a jumps man betting wise: 11 selections, 95pts profit, largely due to a fine Cheltenham festival with 5/8 successful bets.
Ascot has been a kind track to me this year, both in terms of producing winners as well as eye catchers that went on to win subsequently.
Newcastle (0/10) and Doncaster (0/7) have been a disaster, on the other hand. Kempton (1/12) is a track I struggled, as well; I am not sure whether I ever backed a winner at Carlisle. Certainly not in 2022.
As for the selection process (flat only): eye catchers contributed 181 pts (222pts in Class 5/6, but minus 86pts all other Handicaps), traditional form analysis added 70pts to the annual profit, the rest made up by a bunch of system bets.
A complete overview of all selections and annual data going back to 2017 can be found here if anyone is keen to dig deeper.
Key Learnings
While 2022 was a solid year, it didn’t feel like a good year at all. It could have been – perhaps should have been – a much better year than it has been, for various reasons. There are 3 key learnings I hope to transfer into 2023.
Trust The Process
Be consistent and trust what’s working well – yes, reflect and don’t shy away from change if required, but the core of the process has remained the same for nearly decade and continues to work well.
Bet the process, not the outcome….
It’s the one thing you hear every profitable punter say. because it’s true. I need to remind myself of this mantra, once in a while, especially in times when variance shows its mean face.
My process works. It’s profitable. It takes a lot of effort. But it rewards the work and effort plenty fold. It does… if I do trust it, though; even during lean times. Be consistent about the approach to finding bets (i.e. the process) and good things will happen…. eventually.
Be Patient
An extension of consistency and trusting the process. It requires patience. There are no shortcuts.
Patience also means picking and choosing your fights. In the summer, when up to 20 eyecatchers could run in a single day, the fear of missing out can led to a rushed decision-making process. This will almost certainly lead to poor bets.
There’s simply too much racing, it can be overwhelming. Instead of attempting the impossible, be selective and focus on the races that play to the strengths of the process. Be patient, it’s the long term that matters. If “one gets away”, so be it. Tomorrow is another day.
Variance is your Friend
I endured some brutal losing runs this year: 31 consecutive losers- and only one winner of 48 bets between July and September. Only one short-priced winner of 27 bets between April and May.
Tough times. And inevitable. Especially given the average odds of my bets – around 8/1.
Sequences of losing bets are nothing out of ordinary; in fact they are to be expected and statistically inevitable. It’s variance. As simple and brutal as it is.
Knowing this doesn’t make it easier to endure. I was wondering during those times whether I “lost it”.
On the other hand, a simple look back to previous years would have shown that losing runs happened every year and the up- and downswings can be quite violent, as the 2017-2022 P&L graph presented earlier demonstrates pretty well.
Where things go down they have to go up again. What followed the most horrible months of my “betting career” was a November for the ages: the most profitable single month in over four years.
Remember, it’s a never ending ultra-marathon – as long as the P&L sheet is green in the long run it doesn’t matter what happens in the short-term, as long as value is still present in each and every price taken.
2022 Favourite Winners
I backed 35 winners in 2022. Every single one is important, no matter the class of the race. But some mean more than others, if only on an emotional level. Here’s my 3 favourite winners in 2022.
Gold Trip: Melbourne Cup
Backing the 21/1 winner in my favourite international race, is the standout moment in 2022.
Gold Trip’s victory came at the right time as he kicked off a golden November. Prior to this fateful first November day, I backed a meagerly two winners from the last 53 selections. All forgotten, when you land the big one.
State Of Rest: Prince of Wales’s Stakes
A gutsy, honest colt, trained by Joseph O’Brien, State Of Rest got a peach of a ride by Shane Crosse at Royal Ascot in the Prince of Wales’s, beating odds-on favourite Bay Bridge.
This win came at the right time, after backing only a single winner in the last 26 selections. I got 8.4 on the exchanges, which looks stellar value in hindsight.
Sammarco: German Derby
Far from the biggest winner of the year, but certainly one of my favourites. I was incredibly sweet on the son of Camelot, as he caught the eye in serious fashion on his previous two career starts and I felt he could even develop into an Arc contender.
While his season ended somewhat in an anti-climax, his German Derby triumph was as dramatic as brilliant, given the way the race developed. This winner was one of 9 in a glorious July.
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Finally, thank you to all readers, be it here or on Twitter, and especially those that have engaged so eagerly. It makes it twice as enjoyable if you can share the passion for the sport with other people, and even more so if others can derive value from this site as well. On to a wonderful and hopefully profitable 2023.
A small but certainly select field makes this edition of the King George an exciting renewal. Some of the very best older horses meet the leading lights of the 2022 Classic generation.
All eyes are naturally drawn to Westover: an unlucky third in the English Derby and subsequent runaway winner of the Irish Derby. He’s been seriously progressive this season and today is about telling us whether there’s even more to come.
Of course the rematch with Desert Crown was highly anticipated but won’t be happening for quite some time, it seems likely now. That doesn’t distract from the intrigue that surrounds Ralph Beckett’s colt.
The son of Frankel is hard to fault. A progressive sort, he created visually a strong impression at the Curragh when landing the Irish Derby where he also ran to topspeed 100 as easy as you like. He confirmed his strong Derby performance that saw him run to topspeed 106 despite the well documented trouble he encountered in the home straight.
What the Curragh form is worth remains to be seen. And another question mark remains: how does he cope with proper fast ground? Could he be found out for speed on this ground in a race with a possibly muddling pace? He’s a short enough price to find out.
The other three-year-old in the field is English Oaks runner-up Emily Upjohn.
Many will argue she was quite unlucky that day at Epsom. Perhaps she lost the race at the start, although, that is my view, she had every opportunity to win in any case, given the winner Tuesday didn’t enjoy the smoothest of runs either.
Prior to the Oaks the John Gosden trained filly was a runaway winner of Musidora Stakes and won in even more impressive style on her seasonal reappearance at Sandown. If not for the neck beaten effort at Epsom she’d be unbeaten in four career runs.
Yet, in my view she appears to be seriously vulnerable. The fact of the matter is the figures are against her. She ran to topspeeds 95 at York and 97 at Epsom. Circumstances play a role in these figures, yet they tell a story at the same time and Emily Upjohn had opportunities to prove she is top-class on speed ratings as well.
She may well do so today. In fairness, she looks progressing all the time. But she has to take another big step forward today.
Mishriff was certainly an unlucky horse in the Coral Eclipse earlier this month. Short of room at a crucial stage, he finished much the best and was only a neck beaten by brilliant 3-year-old Vadeni. Another day he wins the race.
He is top-rated in this field, up to 5lb clear on official ratings There’s good reason for it. A runner-up in the 2021 edition of the King George, just beaten by excellent Derby winner Adayar, he went on to land the Juddmonte International in great style a few weeks later.
He ran to topspeed 116 and 118 in those two races. He ran 108 at Sandown. there is a slight question mark whether he truly is in love with the 1m 4f trip. Most likely the race today will turn out a test of speed more than pure stamina, so it’s unlikely to be an issue.
Mishriff is the class-act in the field and if he can improve just a tiny bit from Sandown – not impossible, given he came off a break – he’s going to be hard to beat, I reckon.
I love to see Torquator Tasso here. It’s brave by trainer Marcel Weiss to take a chance on ground most likely too fast for last years Arc hero. Weiss also has been quite open in admitting Torquator Tasso won’t be 100% today. Defending his crown in Paris is the ultimate goal.
There are questions marks over the validity of his Arc victory because of the heavy ground that day. He was a shock winner. Nonetheless, he’s a multiple Group 1 winner regardless. Clearly top-class, he deserved to be in this field. As much as I would love to see him do the “Danedream Double” it’s difficult to see.
The two long-shots Pyledriver and Broome are given little chance in the betting. The latter is clearly the more interesting one, in my view. An excellent winner of the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot, he ran to topspeed 108 that day – that level of form entitles him to have a fair shot, today, especially on fast ground and his ability to go from the front.
Selection:
The market is tight but still underestimates Mishriff, who is clearly the best horse in the race. If he can run to the level of form he produced last summer in this very race and subsequently at York – and the Eclipse indicates he can – then he is simply too good for the rest in this field.
He has to give weight away to some smart younger horses, but he looks well capable of doing that in my book. On topspeed nothing in this field gets even close to him. I have him around a 5/2 chance as fair price. So there’s still a bit of juice left, albeit not that much.
On a roll. A hat-trick of winners over the last three days. Flotus won the Group 3 Summer Stakes at York in lovely fashion.
It couldn’t have gone any better: the filly broke well, led the field, although others tried to go with her. Halfway through the race I thought she may have done too much too early. But she kept going all the way strongly to the line. She proved the best filly in the race. Class prevailed.
🏆Summer Stakes (G3) 1210m, 80.000 GBP, 3yo+ mares 🇬🇧 York
Flotus 🇮🇪 (3F Starspangledbanner – Floriade, by Invincible Spirit) J : @SilvDSousa T : Simon & Ed Crisford O :Katsumi Yoshida B :Newtown Stud and T J Pabst 🥈Adaay To Remember 🥉Gale Force Mayapic.twitter.com/iQ1DJ4uHpN
Hard to believe how rapidly and dramatically the tide can turn in this game as long as you make good decisions, believe in your method (IF it’s a solid and proven method) and show consistency in the effort put in day in day out and most importantly the quality of decisions made.
Already five winners in the first week of July, that’s one more than in the entire individual months of April or May. Right now things are flowing, so to speak. But the pendulum can swing as quickly the other way again, I know all too well.
So I’ll try to stick (not always easy) to the Golden Rules regarding emotions: never too high, never too low. Because three losers on Saturday and the world looks a little bit gloomier again.
3.35 Ascot: Group 2 Summer Mile, 1m
A close one: there isn’t much between the main principles in the field on official ratings, RPR’s or topspeed – the outcome will depend on the form on the day, on pace and possibly on who gets first run round the Ascot mile.
Modern News, My Oberon and Perotto met only a fortnight ago at Windsor in a tight finish with not more than ¾ of a lengths between them as My Oberon finished strongly to get up on the line.
I felt that day Perotto could be marked up for his front-running effort when he possibly over-raced a bit in the early stages. I was hugely impressed how he fought back so gamely once headed, even after being slightly hampered over half a furlong from home. He simply didn’t give up.
He’s no star but a rock solid individual, who has sometimes lacked sharpness out of the gates but clearly responded well to front-running tactics the last time. Cheek-pieces added seem a logical move and hopefully help him to be sharp early. A prominent position on fast ground at the round course is an advantage in my book.
He acts well on fast ground, clearly stays a mile as seen when winning a strongly run Britannia last year and should go well. He’s not the likeliest winner, but certainly overpriced while better fancied horses are priced up according to reputation more so than substance, I feel.
Chindit in particular, who looks a wrong favourite. He hasn’t even cracked a 90 topspeed rating in his last six starts.
10pts win – Perotto @ 12/1
…….
4.45 Ascot: Class 3 Handicap, 1m
Washraa is clearly well handicapped on the basis of her seriously impressive Sandringham Stakes run. She travelled like a good thing, looked likely to come with a big challenge over two furlongs out, but clipped heels, stumbled badly and lost every chance, yet finished in impressive style, nonetheless.
Of course it’s hypothetical how much she would have found with a clear run. Though, I’m pretty certain she would have gone seriously close. She can race off the same mark here, which offers a great opportunity to resume the winning habit she showed in two starts before Royal Ascot.
She improved nicely since her seasonal reappearance, hinting talent already as a juvenile and should have too much talent for this slightly easier race than the rivals she encountered at Royal Ascot.
10pts win – Washraa @ 3/1
…….
5.20 Ascot: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Out From Under is a strong favourite. Only a pound up for his recent very strong Newmarket effort is possibly lenient. At prices I must select the talented filly Tarrabb, though. I reckon she is better than her official rating of 80.
Whether she is already better now, after three career runs, is the key question. She looked raw and very much learning on the job in all her races, nonetheless won really well on debut, wasn’t disgraced when beaten as runner-up subsequently after pulling hard, and lost her race at the gates at Thirsk.
She still very much caught the eye that day in particular, making good progress from the back of the field but not getting a clear run. It’s reasonable to assume she is ahead of her mark. Straight Ascot seven looks an ideal, simple test for the filly.
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