Tag Archives: Glorious Goodwood

Friday Selections: August, 3rd 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

Three on the bounce! What rare joy to find a winner on three consecutive days – Land Force (7/2) clearly stayed the trip as hoped and won the Richmond Stakes in commanding style under a class ride by Ryan Moore.

……

5.50 Newmarket: Class 5 Handicap, 12f

It was a disappointing handicap debut for Floria Tosca the other day after she showed a bit of promise in three maiden starts. I was keen on her the last time as I thought that judged by her second start at Chelmsford she could be well treated off her opening mark. That form worked out incredibly well and her subsequent performance at Bath looked more than decent too.

A fortnight ago the race then didn’t quite worked out the way as hoped. They were crawling for most parts, Floria Tosca was left flat footed over 4f out but then made quite a bit of stylish progress to lead briefly over 2f out. She didn’t see it out eventually and that becomes a bit of a habit now, which is a concern.

Hopefully it is more greenness than anything else. She is bred for the job so upped to 12f may suit. There should be a fair pace on the cards today and it is very winnable race. Dropped 3lb to a mark off 70 plus interesting young apprentice Marco Ghiani in the saddle who claims another 7lb means the filly must enter calculations here.

Selection:
10pts win – Floria Tosca @ 11/1 PP

Advertisements

Thursday Selections: August, 2nd 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

He’s finally done it! Lightning Spear after more than two handful of attempts finally broke through the barrier to land a Group 1! And how he did it – beautifully timed and produced with patience and poise by Osisin Murphy, the seven year old colt stormed to success in the Sussex Stakes. A great price he was all the same (selection @ 12.5/1)!

……….

3.00 Goodwood: Group 1 Richmond Stakes, 6f

Ballydoyle isn’t going quite as strong as one would usually see this time of the year. There were issues in the yard reportedly. Nonetheless Land Force looks a supreme candidate to land the Richmond Stakes today.

He’s been a February foal so no surprise to see him having quite a bit of racing already in his legs as he also appears to be a good looking and imposing individual. He took the step up to graded class in his stride when finishing a strong 3rd in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. Arguably a race he wasn’t advantaged due to his positioning toward the stand side for most parts of the race.

He finished very strongly, indicating a step up to 6f will be beneficial. He remained over the minimum trip next time out in a Listed contest at Tipperary. Not the strongest of contests, but he only needed to be pushed under under hands and heels to win cozily.

Today’s test looks ideal for this speedy individual. The additional furlong won’t be a problem, neither is the ground.

Selection:
10pts win – Land Force @ 7/2 PP

Tuesday Selections: July, 31st 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

1.50 Goodwood: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 2f

Still to some extend unexposed and open to further improvement is Jim Crowley’s mount Alfarris. A progressive sort, he won on seasonal reappearance a hot class 3 Handicap at Chelmsford in commanding style.

Returning two weeks later at Sandown stepping up in class he travelled supremely well even though the race with its start-stop gallop wasn’t set up to see him to best effect. Ultimately the pace setter pulled out more in the closing stages.

That was a clear career best performance by Alfarris resulting in a 93 TS rating. He’s upped 2lb for the effort but in the context of the race here he has a really nice weight and a good draw too.

Selection:
10pts win – Alfarris @ 7/1 PP

…..

3.35 Goodwood: Group 1 Goodwood Cup, 2m

Defending champion Stradivarius is the obvious one and hard to beat after two excellent wins this year. But at given prices I have a go with Call To Mind who remains unexposed over the 2m trip and also looks to get better with time.

He won a 1m 6f Listed contest here at Goodwood last year and has backed this up with some big performances in graded company. He was also third in this years Yorkshire Cup behind Stradivarius – a fair margin beaten, though.

A subsequent Grade 2 success in the Belmont Gold Cup in June when attempting the full 2 miles for the first time set him up nicely for a big performance today, I feel where he can chase home the hot favourite.

Selection:
10pts win – Call To Mind @ 16/1 PP

…..

4.45 Goodwood: Class 2 Handicap, 5f

Tricky race where I give Just Glamorous a chance to find back some form after two rather below-par efforts this year. A real speed-ball who should enjoy exactly this type of test, he drops to a more likely mark as well as down from Graded company.

Just Glamorous has shown in the past to be able to to this sort of mark and time speed figures back this up. The question is whether he still got it as the drop off between what he showed at the back end of last season to the two efforts this year are stark.

Selection:
10pts win – Just Glamorous @ 27/1 MB

Betting: Saturday Selections

Legatissimo

Been some tough few days but Malabar steered the ship back into the right direction. Her 10/1 win was badly needed but as always in racing, one big winner, and you’re back in the game. Last day of Glorious Goodwood today – hopefully ending it on a high note.

2.35 Goodwood: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 4f

I like the profile of Melodious here. This progressive filly is beautifully bred for 12f and showed excellent improvement this year. She should come into her own with time so may have not shown her best yet. Unlucky to be piped on the line at Newbury the other day, she tries this trip only for the second time and remains on a fairly decent mark.

Melodious @ 12/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

———–

3.10 Goodwood: Nassau Stakes (Group 1), 1m 2f

Burned my fingers in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh when Diamondsandrubies held on to win against Legatissimo. I believe the Wachman filly can turn the table today. She had a tactical disadvantage at the Curragh and is the better filly of the pair.

I was inclined to leave this race as it is, as there are some other good fillies in the field too with French Oaks winner Star Of Seville or English Oaks third Lady of Dubai. But Legatissimo is now available at 5/2, which I didn’t expect and deem as too big.

Legatissimo @ 5/2 Betfred – 10pts Win

Thursday Selections

Cheltenham Festival

2.35 Goodwood: Qatar Richmond Stakes (Group 2)

Long Island at 6/1 is a huge price in my mind. Forgive him the run at the Curragh which came too soon after a big performance at Royal Ascot. He’s more suited to 6f though and after a bit of rest should be back to his best today. He went into the Royal meeting as the most exciting 2yo and I think it’s too early to give up on him.

Long Island @ 6/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

———–

3.00 Galway Handicap (90-60), 1m

Top weight of ten stone and a wider than ideal draw are tough asks, but lightly raced Champagne Or Water makes plenty of appeal in this field nonetheless. She came out off her seasonal break really well at the Curragh earlier this month when she won a good Handicap in fine style.

She came miles clear with the runner-up and might well be able to pull out more, despite a rise off 9lb in the mark. She is overpriced here.

Champagne Or Water @ 9/1 Coral – 5pts Win

———–

3.10 Goodwood: Goodwood Cup (Group 2), 2m

I like to think that Pallasator is capable to bounce back today. He’s a really interesting runner – the three year old filly Vive Ma Fille is the one that intrigues me most. She is wonderfully bred, is a full-sister to Group 1 winning Vif Monsieur and she stepped up successfully to Listed class at Royal Ascot last month.

She tried 2m for the first time and attempted to make all. She set a steady pace and was in with a big shout over one furlong out, however hang her chances literally away. Whether this performance is prove enough for her ability to truly stay 2m isn’t clear yet as on pedigree she hasn’t really a right to do so, but it was an encouraging effort in a competitive field.

Today is tougher of course in a better grade against seasoned stayers, and the fact remains that she has won only one single race to date. But she has been very consistent in her form. What I like is thee fact that she receives a truckload of weight from the rest of the field. The Johnston yard is flying too, so there’s plenty to like about her chances.

Vive Ma Fille @ 20/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

———–

4.45 Galway: Galway Hurdle, Handicap, Class 1, 2m

It was Diakali first, the rest nowhere on his seasonal comeback at Tipperary eleven days ago. If this doesn’t come too soon today, it’s hard to look beyond him. This six year old is the class act, still improving and as long as he takes to the track, will take all the beating, despite top weight. I feel 5/1 is rather generous.

Diakali @ 5/1 Coral – 5pts Win

———–

7.15 Ffos Las: Class 6 Handicap, 10f

I’m sure Kingdom Of Alba is better than what he’s shown in three maidens yet with the yard going strongly, but the same could easily apply to Rebel Yell who makes plenty of appeal on his handicap debut either. He’s pretty well bred and should be very well suited by the step up in trip.

Gelded since his last run will help to focus him more on the task ahead. Usually this works well for Shamardal offspring. This is very winnable race, so with plenty in his favour, he’s a worth a nibble at 10/1.

Rebel Yell @ 10/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

Preview: Gordon Stakes (Group 3)

DSC_1414

2.35 Goodwood: Gordon Stakes (Group 3)

I feel depressed to say it, but I have to oppose Highland Reel firmly. He was the most exciting horse to look forward before the start of the season but he didn’t fulfil the promise he showed as a juvenile. I tend to agree, though, that his Derby performance was too poor to be true and he might be seen in a better light today. Yet he could be vulnerable to some progressive sorts and is not certain to stay thus far anyway.

Medrano is a fair alternative and should run his race, however the drying ground might not be quite what he wants. Disegno would have to take a big step forward to feature, I feel, and he doesn’t look all that likely to do what is required to win.

The two individuals most likely to improve are Scottish and Space Age. Both have improved in recent weeks and deserve a shoot in this company. I struggle to favour one over the other, though. I fancy both and feel they are overpriced. So I go with both.

Scottish is a full-brother to Group 3 winner Royal Empire. He was beaten on his seasonal reappearance by smart Mr Singh but got off the mark subsequently in fine style. Stepped up in trip at Royal Ascot, he was an excellent runner-up behind Space Age but had to delay his run until 2f out at which point Space Age was long gone. He looks clearly on the up.

Space Age’s win at Royal Ascot was freak-like. Overcoming the widest draw, setting a hot pace but held on gamely in the closing stages. He was beaten in 2nd off his revised mark in his next start by a well handicapped individual, but most importantly had to give loads of weight away that day while deploying an aggressive racing style once again.

Both look well up to pattern class in my mind and should run big races with conditions to suit.

Space Age @ 9/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
Scottish @ 8/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win 

Tuesday Selections

Massinga

After some busy weeks in real life and disappointing results on the racetrack I’m getting back into the mood – Glorious Goodwood and the Galway Festival are surely helping. Some serious racing is on offer today, and I’ll try to enjoy it as much as possible. From a betting perspective I feel the bookies have made some errors:

3.45 Goodwood: Notarised @ 8/1

Naturally this is an ultra-competitive Handicap, but the ground doesn’t play into the hands of many. However it should suit progressive Notarised. He is hard to pass once in front, as shown when winning at Haydock recently where he prevailed in a tough fight. He pulled clear with the second, who’s a good horse in his own right too.

Notarised has won at Goodwood before as well as over 2m. He should have all in his favour, including the possibility to get a soft lead. He has to overcome a career highest mark, but can be able to pull out a bit more once again, particularly with conditions to suit so well today.

> Sportingbet – 5pts Win

————-

6.15 Galway: Kind Of Magic @ 4/1

The Aiden O’Brien filly should be much shorter here. She was a big eye-catcher on her debut when she ran green and was poorly positioned when the race unfolded. But she finished in impressive style without getting a hard ride. She’ll have learned plenty that day.

Softish ground today should be in her favour as her dam won a Listed race on bottomless ground. She has not much to fear in this field as the Weld favourite doesn’t make any appeal at all at a very skinny price over a trip potentially too short for Simannka. I expect Kind Of Magic to turn the table with Bolger’s Siamsaiocht too.

> 4/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

————-

6.50 Galway: Galway Topaz Mile – Aussie Valentine @ 25/1

Dermot Weld’s runner proves popular for many reasons. Surely the lightly raced Stay The Night is primed and bound for a big run. But in a competitive race like this you have to oppose him at the given prices.

In my mind Aussie Valentine is a huge price given the excellent improvement he has shown in some tough handicaps this season. A bit unlucky in the Lincoln, when runner-up behind an exciting improver, he made no mistake at Leopardstown subsequently. The Alleged Stakes came a bit too soon after those big races and he didn’t show his true form.

Back off a break today should suit him well. He usually runs best when fresh. More rain is expected which is surely in his favour and the trip is perfect too. Obviously the track is an unknown and the draw a concern, but at this price something I can live with.

> Bet365 – 5pts Win