Tag Archives: Chelmsford

Saturday Selections: March, 31st 2018

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Good Friday washed out – both selections non-runners thanks to the severe ground conditions at Bath yesterday. Let’s see if today – on Dubai World Cup day (one fancy for the Sheema Classic) – things go more to plan.

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3.00 Musselburgh: Class 2 Handicap, 1 mile

Some of the lesser exposed individuals are interesting, particularly Paco Boy son Fake News. The one I fancy, though, is hardy sort Indomeneo, who has seen plenty of racing as a juvenile.

He is vulnerable to an improver, and will have to overcome a wide draw. However, he has proven himself over this sort of trip and ground last year. He looked good winning two on the bounce at Ripon and Redcar, and he already ran to a TSR of 82 – so of his current mark off 84 he looks a rock solid option.

I like the fact that he is usually up with the pace. Something that is of massive advantage at Musselbourgh particularly in these type of conditions today, I feel. He will need to be sharp at the start, on the other hand – as drawn in 10 is not an easy task.

Selection:
10pts win – Indomeneo @ 7/1 VC

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4.45 Musselburgh: Class 5 Handicap, 5 furlongs

Question marks all over, so I go with one who’s proven to enjoy the ground and might not have shown his best over this sort of trip in these conditions yet: Richard Fahey’s Geoff Potts has a poor win record, however, looked an improved horse last season, particularly with cut in the ground.

He was very consisted in the second half of last season, winning a 6f Handicap on soft ground and going close enough in a handful of races subsequently. A good piece of form over the minimum trip is missing, however only twice in Handicaps did he have the chance and was very much unfancied those times.

With more rain to come, this should turn into a grind and that will suit those who act on this type of ground and stay a bit further. Geoff Potts fits the bill.

Selection:
10pts win – Geoff Potts @ 9/1 Matchbook

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8.45 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 6 furlongs

Money is already pouring in, yet top weight Fareeq looks still a tasty price. He’s a tricky sort who can make a mess of things at the start and can hang violently in the finish, however judged on his two last CD runs here at Chelmsford he should be bang there when it matters.

He won here in January in fine style, running to a time speed rating of 61 and finished subsequently a good runner-up off a revised mark, when things did not go his way as he missed the break from a widish draw and travelled always wide mostly off the bridle.

Pretty much the same story at Kempton the last time, now back at Chelmsford, a kinder draw and a mark of 60 should give him a big chance with a good 5lb claimer in the saddle.

Selection:
10pts win – Fareeq @ 12/1 VC

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5.10 Meydan: Sheeema Classic, 1m 4f

The Japanese Rey De Oro and Arc runner-up Cloth Of Stars head the market, and probably rightly so. However, at given prices, I do fee Hawkbill is the forgotten horse and way too big.

He had a fine comeback run here at Meydan earlier this months. Overcoming a wide draw and travelling wide throughout, he grinded it out eventually. This is much tougher today, obviously, but that was as good a reappearance as you could expect and shows Hawkbill is still close to his best form.

William Buick is in the saddle of the five times Group winner, including the 2016 Coral Eclipse. I hope he will have Hawkbill close enough to the pace. Stall seven is wide enough but Hawkbill has the pace to get across quickly.

He is not the best horse in the race, but if he gets an ideal run, he could be hard to pass, given race fitness is ensured.

Selection:
10pts win – Hawkbill @ 11/1 PP

Thursday Selections: March, 29th 2018

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4.05 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap, 1 mile

A trappy affair where at least half the field make some sort of appeal. Yet, Bobby Biscuit is the one I really like here on his handicap debut.

A big, scopey individual, who didn’t run his race in a hot conditions stakes contest earlier this months, he probably wasn’t helped by the eventual winner who jumped into his lane while turning for home, as a consequence Bobby Biscuit lost momentum. He didn’t look to travel all that well at this point anyway, though, this was the final nail in the coffin.

He won a Novice Stakes in January, however. Overcoming an awkward start and subsequent keenness. He looked idling once in front but held on to win what looks like a fair contest, given the runner-up subsequently franked the form with another strong runner-up display behind a 92 rated individual.

Thanks to collateral form a case can be made for Bobby Biscuit having a good chance to be a bit better than his opening mark off 79. Given he was a January foal and looks physically quite strong his chances to win another race or two in the first half this year look enhanced.

Selection:
10pts win – Bobby Biscuit @ 17/2 Unibet

Thursday Selections: February, 22nd 2018

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8.00 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap , 1m 2f

A competitive race as it’s hard to rule any of the eight starters out completely. However, Ourmullion is the one that catches my eye for a variety of reasons.

The four year old gelding found 11- and 12 furlongs too far in his last two outings, although the Kempton run looks a solid form in general.

Down to 1m 2f again, he looks competitive in this contest. He won two on the bounce over course and distance in September, followed up in December here with an excellent effort in a red hot contest.

Ourmullion still hasn’t too many miles on the clock, particularly on the All-Weather and the 10 furlong trip. His current handicap mark off 77 is workable and from a good draw he should have not too many excuses today.

Selection:
10pts win – Ourmullion @ 8/1 Bet365

Thursday Selections: February, 8th 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

2.40 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 4½f

Small but ultra-competitive field. Paddypley drops in class and went close the last time; he’s sure to have a big shout. French recruit Stonific is an interesting contender for David O’Meara. His opening mark looks very workable. Recent CD scorer Theglasgowwarrior may not be stopped by a 5lb hike in the mark.

Yet, The Resdev Way seems to be the forgotten horse in the race, certainly in the betting. The five-year old gelding, however, has a sensational course and distance record. From five runs he won three and was placed in two others, while his last CD effort, back in 2016, when he finished third off 4lb higher than his current handicap mark, is quite a strong piece of form as well.

Things didn’t go to plan for quite a while afterwards. Neither on the flat nor over hurdles did he show anything, until he returned to his beloved Newcastle mid-January, then over 2 miles – he travelled strongly, looked like the winner when approaching the final furlong, though, he bumped into a well handicapped individual who found more when The Resdev Way tired in the dying strides over a trip probably stretching his stamina.

Still, a fine piece of form, given the winner has won subsequently again. The Resdev Way returned ten days later at Chelmsford over 1m 5½f, without landing a blow. I wouldn’t judge him too harshly on that, as clearly here at Newcastle he seems to be an entirely different beast.

Finally he returns to Newcastle over his optimum trip; with Paul Hannagan booked for the ride, I feel The Resdev Way is overpriced in this race, despite its competitive nature.

Selection: 
10pts win – The Resdev Way @ 14/1 VC

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9.00 Chelmsford: Class 5 Handicap, 1 mile

Gala Celebration returns from a break for a new yard. He has shown in the past he can win fresh; in fact 11 months ago fresh reappearing from a 156 day-long break, he got off the mark in a 7f Handicap at Lingfield, putting up a near freakish performance from the front – in the context of the class of the race and level of the horses involved – when overcoming a wide draw and coming home strongly totally unchallenged.

He didn’t strolled along that day, he set good fractions, yet nothing in the race could get by him, he ran them totally into the ground.

He was pretty on and off in all his next starts. However, now back from a break and 2lb lower in the mark than for last year’s Lingfield success, he seems dangerously weighted in this contest.

That says, Gala Celebration needs to stretch out to a mile, a trip he has tried twice before. He didn’t run too badly on turf in softish conditions and certainly it looks possible on pedigree.

Interesting jockey booking with Jamie Spencer taking the ride on what is Ian Williams’ sole runner on the night. Both enjoy an excellent strike rate together and with the additional aid of a good draw it looks likely that Gala Celebration is ready for a big run.

Selection: 
10pts win – Gala Celebration @ 9/2 GB

Thursday Selections: February, 1st 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

Ending January with a bang – Jack The Truth (9/2) won the lucky last at Chelmsford in fine style. Bringing the total for the first month of 2018 to seven winners and a profit of 325pts for a 95.59% ROI!

That says, it was Cosmelli, the 33/1 shot  at Southwell, who clearly made January the excellent month it was – thankfully, after so many other big prices were hitting the post. Onwards and upwards…

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1.30 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Pretty much a week ago I put Archimedes up to win a similar race over CD – I’ll do it again, despite the 5-year old gelding having been a flop that day – at least judged on pure form.

However, there were plenty of positives to take from the race, which was his first one after a 99-day-long lay-off, seeing him undergoing wind surgery during that time.

So, Archimedes was probably entitled to tire as he eventually did a week ago, while looking threatening all the way until the final furlong marker.

Again, he has the luxury of the prime draw in 1 – as mentioned in my preview the other day, Archimedes is for many reasons – not only the positive draw – an intriguing individual.

For one, he is a course and distance winner – last January he won this exact race off 3lb higher than his current handicap rating. He ran to a whopping RPR of 70 that day (in the context of his official rating).

He backed this up later in the year on turf at Bath on fast ground over 5f, when winning off the same mark running to a similar RPR.

Problems started soon after. He missed plenty of assignments and ran mostly poorly. That when they identified the wind as an issue and he got the OP and break.

Archimedes drops into a weaker race, from a competitive class 5 into this very winnable class 6 handicap. He meets the winner his comeback race again – Something Lucky attempts the four-timer. He may well have still something in hand, judging how easily he did it a week ago – but has not the advantage of a low draw this time.

Selection:
10pts win – Archimedes @ 7/1 Bet365

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7.30 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 3f

Another one I was keen on earlier this month: Azam, when he ran over 14f at Wolverhampton recently; on the back of some decent performances in really hot races with form working out quite well, off a dropping mark he looked ripped to win a race himself.

In fact, he travelled like the winner turning for home, hard on the bridle, but then when in the midst of unleashing it all, got badly interfered and lost all momentum subsequently.

In truth, he probably wouldn’t have won regardless, as the trip is probably a bit too far, however he was every chance robbed to do better than he eventually did, after going so well for so long.

Azam drops in trip to potentially very suitable 11f while also dropping another couple of pounds in his handicap rating. This gives him a tremendous chance I believe – he looks incredibly well handicapped now, off a career lowest mark, as one should not forget he performed okaish enough of marks in the 80’s on the flat last summer.

Only judged on his recent All-Weather form he also must have a huge chance, running to RPR’s of 75, 82, 76 and 79 in his last four races, while three back matched a 75 time speed figure, too!

Selection:
10pts win – Azam @ 11/2 GB

Wednesday Selections: January, 31st 2018

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4.10 Chelmsford: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Competitive race, both favourite Bosham and Jorvik Prince, who was a bit unlucky not complete a four-timer at Lingfield last time out, should go really close. Question is, given they have a lot of mileage on the clock, how much more improvement can they eke out?

Lightly raced Jack The Truth is the intriguing contender in this field I am keen on. He hasn’t ran a single bad race in five starts; despite the main body of form coming at Southwell, he also proved to be capable on other AW surfaces.

He already won twice at Southwell this winter; his 5f success on handicap debut was an impressive performance, he followed up subsequently with an even better effort when third in a 6f class 4 Handicap. From a wide draw he came across and was up there with a hot pace.

As the only one from the front trio, he kept going in the closing stages to finish third eventually, whereas winner and second came from the back off the field to stay on. This already works out a good piece of form.

Jack The Truth remains on the same handicap mark, a 73 rating he matched on TS figure on his penultimate run. Dropping back to the minimum trip and down to a class 5 contest, he should be ready for a big performance from a fair draw.

Selection:
10pts win – Jack The Truth @ 9/2 VC

Sunday Selections: January, 21st 2018

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1.55 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Six year old Frozen Lake hasn’t exactly been firing for his new trainer yet, however, he has plenty going for himself today and could be hard to stop if he hasn’t went sour. Clearly, the son of Elusive Quality deserves his chance in this open, yet very winnable race.

Frozen drops down to a career lowest mark as well as for the first time into a class 6 Handicap. This is the easiest task he faced ever and while his latest forms aren’t reading well, still, his March 2017 run here at Chelmsford over a mile is a very strong piece of form on offer.

A return to anything near it will see him winning easily today, given this is an easier race, he’s 9lb lower and has the aid of a red hot 5lb claimer on board.

The gelding has one issue: the start. He often rears and is on the back foot right away. That can be a problem here at Chelmsford where the kickback can be severe in my opinion.

Nonetheless, he could have too much in hand to use his stamina to pick up one after another in the home straight and hopefully gets there when it matters most.

Selection:
10pts win – Frozen Lake @ 6/1 Bet365