Tag Archives: Tuesday

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 6th June 2023

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Stay Smart did well to win at Ayr as he held on by a head. He was all out after setting a seriously hot pace and showed great attitude to get home at 3/1 SP.

Rule 4 hurt me here, though. Yet, I was relived. A winner, and any losses minimized for the day, no matter what.

Cuban Breeze was the one I fancied most to provide a second winner. He finished a gallant second but didn’t have enough early speed to get to the lead which went Aberama Gold’s way who went wire to to wire, instead. Perhaps I was too optimistic about Cuban Breeze’s early pace against another seriously fast starter.

Late Arrival never stood a chance from his draw and perhaps I should have seen that coming. I glanced too quickly over this major negative. Hopefully he can come good the next time.

Folk Star finished 3rd but never looked like winning. She didn’t get a run at a crucial stage and didn’t have the change of gear from off the pace. My Mate Mike was withdrawn after he broke through the gate.

……

3.30 Leicester: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Is Makeen too obvious to be true? Only the blind could have missed the hugely eyecatching performance at Newmarket last month.

He traveled strongly behind a wall of horses for much of the race. Waited for room until very late when switched to the inside and ran on easily for third with the fastest final furlong split.

It was a near career-best effort without a clear run. What is clear: the gelding is in peak form. In saying that, he wouldn’t be obviously well-handicapped on ratings.

But it seems clear that 7 furlongs on fast ground could be an ideal scenario for him. He didn’t have many chances of this sort, yet. Is there some improvement left in these conditions? Possibly.

In any case, he should be not left on a mark off 80 after that last run. The 3lb claim of Ryan Sexton is the cherry on the cake in a race where there isn’t too much to fear in terms of rivals to beat, even though he moves up in to 0-85.

10pts win Makeen @ 7/2

……

5.30 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Regal Glory returns to what may well be her optimum trip and track and looks ready to strike thanks to a lowered mark and a good draw to find a handy position in the field.

The filly caught numerous times the eye in the last few weeks and months. She achieved an excellent 57 speed rating off a 51 mark in November over this CD. She followed up with a couple of strong efforts, especially the February 3rd place here once again caught my eye.

Her subsequent runs were better than the bare form, but it’s her latest run over 6f here at Lingfield only five days ago that may rate as her strongest yet.

From a wide draw she travelled in rear, made strong progress on the wide outside, turned wide and yet finished strongly.

She drops to a 50 OR now – she won off the same mark last November over this course and distance – has the #4 draw to attack the race from, over 7 furlongs at Lingfield. Huge chance to add a second CD success to her name.

10pts win – Regal Glory @ 5/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 30th May 2023

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5.25 Redcar: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Spartan Fighter returns to turf off a 10lb lower mark than his current All-Weather rating. He ran with plenty of credit on the sand in recent weeks and is potent on turf as well, so he could be quite well-handicapped today.

He drops to 6 furlongs as well, which is more his trip than when last seen over 7f at Wolverhampton. There he also had to overcome the widest draw and did a lot to get to the front. It was no surprise to see him fading from 2f out.

There’s no doubt he outran his odds more often than not in his last handful or so runs. He caught the eye in no uncertain terms at Newcastle in March when 4th in a hot race. He travelled pretty well, made good progress on the outside and only dropped away late in the day.

He wasn’t as good next time, but it was a strange run, and looked back to decent form in the aforementioned Wolverhampton race.

He also drops in class today and looks seriously dangerous on ground and trip to suit. The 5lb claim of his rider should be useful as well. Obviously he didn’t have many opportunities on grass in the last twelve month, and there is a question as to why that’s the case.

Though, past turf speed ratings give him a huge chance here off his 56 rating in this contest.

10pts win – Spartan Fighter @ 6/1

……….

6.45 Tipperary: Handicap, 5f

Lokada was a strong runner-up at Naas behind Harry’s Hill three weeks ago. She meets this rival, who was seriously well-handicapped then, on better terms today and also may not have to fight the draw bias as was the case at Naas.

That day she was prominent on the far side, while Harry’s Hill enjoyed the advantage of racing against the stands’ side. She travelled strongly, possibly going best and ran on strongly up the hill to get up late for 2nd place to win his group.

He’s 2lb higher today, which is a fair hike by Irish standards. She also ran to 70 speed rating at Naas and an impressive 81 on the AW last year.

The Naas form should be strong and there’s every chance the relatively lightly filly can continue to progress, as her last two runs can be upgraded – Naas, as mentioned, but also her run prior at Dundalk warranted an upgrade.

10pts win – Lokada @ 7/2

……..

8.10 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Nogo’s Dream drops in class and should find this much easier than the last two times at Newmarket and Ascot. The fast ground is a slight question mark, but you would hope he acts on it.

In any case he looks a progressive sort. He won a maiden over the minimum trip at Wolverhampton in March and caught the eye the next time at Newmarket.

He travelled strongly, made smooth progress from 3f out, on the bridle, went on to press the lead approaching the final furlong but got badly tired eventually.

Perhaps didn’t get home over the stiff 7f. And the same could be possibly said the last time at Ascot. In deep ground 6f maybe stretched him a little it too much.

This race is easier. 6f on decent ground should help. He looks underestimated off his 77 handicap mark as the handicapper raised him only by a single pound for those last two strong efforts.

10pts win – Nogo’s Dream @ 4/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 23rd May 2023

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2.23 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 5.5f

I can easily rule out the vast majority of this field on price or conditions. But I do end up with my two eyecatchers left – Master Sully and I’m Mable – and struggle to develop any preference.

Both geldings are completely wrong prices here in my view and I feel they both have better chances to win the race than their prices would tell. Hence this calls for the rare measure that I split my stake.

Both lads have their quirks, and that’s the reason why they find themselves in this poor 0-55 contest. I’m Mable is top-rated, and clearly better than this grade, if on a going day.

He drops in grade here, and has shown significant improvement in his latest runs, suggesting he’s in strong form and ready for a big run.

I loved his latest Lingfield effort when he travelled strongly on the bridle as he approached the home straight but went widest and lost ground. He cam home strongly.

He was somewhat unfortunate on his penultimate run as well. He can make a mess at the gate, though. And 5.5f in combination with rattling fast ground is a bit of a question mark given his best turf form comes over 5f on soft. But he has shown to handle these conditions, and I can see him finish strongly from off the pace.

Master Sully is not a talented individual but he’s a bit better than a 46 rating. He won a Conditions Stakes in January and followed up with a number of solid efforts in defeat.

His last three runs all caught the eye for numerous reasons, suggesting he is in good form. A switch to turf may do the trick. He’s still rather lightly raced on turf, but ran pretty well on three occasions last season from 5-6f on a variety of ground conditions.

His best turf effort cam on fast ground and he was a bit unlucky over this CD last September. He can have his own issues at the gate, but if gets away alright I reckon he should be a solid victory ahead of his turf mark right now.

5pts win – Master Sully @ 9/1
5pts win – I’m Mable @ 8/1

……..

3.40 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Mudlahhim  sets high enough standard for this grade after latest impressive 3rd place effort over this same course and distance, less than two weeks ago.

If he has recovered from that huge performance, he’s certain to go close as he ran to an excellent 59 speed rating in line with his current mark.

He moved quickly forward to establish a solid lead and set a decent pace. I quite liked that he was able to kick on from halfway through the race, before gradually tiering from 2f out, beaten by a well-handicapped winner in the closing stages.

He must be in strong form, as evidence a number of times prior in this sort of grade. He didn’t land a blow in a class 5 at Southwell, but also his 3rd place three runs back over 8.5f rates a strong performance.

He shouldn’t face too much pace pressure here. If they allow him to establish a soft lead he’d be hard to get back to.

10pts win – Mudlahhim @ 11/2

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 25th April 2023

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Big Bard produced a great finish to run out an easy win by about 4 lengths today. The 5th winner in April.

He simply was so well handicapped with the 7lb claim of excellent Alec Voikhansky in the saddle, who gave the gelding a cool, patient ride: waiting for the gap to open on the inside, before he stayed on strongly in the final furlong.

I was deliberating back and forth last night because of the big field and the slight questions over the likely proper soft ground. But in the end the prevailing thought was the gelding is too well handicapped to let go. A correct decision in the end.

4.25 Yarmouth: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f

I was sweet on Dog Fox earlier this month before he was withdrawn after being upset in the stalls. There’s a concern over his behaviour here as well, of course.

But that aside, the same reasons as back then apply here too, why I’m prepared to back him again. For one, this isn’t a strong race on paper. Not many appear to have a large amount of scope to outrun their current handicap marks.

Dog Fox is also an intriguing horse: one I flagged up in my 3-year-old handicappers to follow list and feel this represents a superb opportunity to get off the mark for him.

This confidence may seem misplaced given Dog Fox showed nothing in three runs as a juvenile. However, those runs came over trips that were clearly on the sharp side.

He’s bred to enjoy middle-distance trips and is expected to improve dramatically in handicap company going up in trip. The majority of his dam’s offspring performs solid once upped to 10 furlongs, as his sire Cityscape has a 10.1 stamina index to offer.

An opening mark of 62 looks stiff judged purely on juvenile form, but could underestimate him judged on potential improvement for trip and age.

The soft ground won’t be an issue I reckon. The sire and dam enjoyed cut in the ground during their respective racing careers. The application of a hood may help to calm him.

10pts win – Dog Fox @ 4/1

…….

6.25 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

There’s no question Aihawawi is a great chance in this race and was a huge eyecatcher last time out. Off the same mark here, with the #3 draw to attack the race from, he could be hard to beat.

On the other hand, he was probably beaten for speed at Newcastle, and stayed on up the stiff finish in the closing stages. Does the sharper, less stiff Wolverhampton suit?

At 6/5 I’m not prepared to find out and rather take the proverbial gamble on another eyecatcher, that is Bridge Water. I say gamble because there’s every chance the filly is twice the price tomorrow afternoon.

But I make an as much as possible informed decision and risk assessment that says, all I can judge right now in terms of information in front of me, says she’s too big a price in this field. I have her much, much shorter.

She caught the eye two back at Kempton. There she was restrained from the widest draw and and trailed the field, nicely settled. She travelled strongly and made strong progress from 3f out to eventually finish much the best. She was simply poorly positioned, otherwise she could have won that day.

The form itself isn’t strong, but the way she finished was noteworthy and in line with her prior run that warranted an upgrade too.

Over 6f she probably doesn’t have the speed to win, I feel. But she could improve for the step up to 7f. She’s by Starspangledbanner with a7.0f stamina index, out of an unraced Le Havre mare.

She also has a lowly 49 mark. The return to the All-Weather is a plus, as she didn’t enjoy soft ground when last seen.

10pts win – Bridge Water @ 10/1

…….

9.00 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Dark Design ran a huge race in defeat when last seen at Lingfield. He moved quickly forward from his wide draw to slot in right behind the pace setter, but had to do a lot to get there just before the first turn.

He tracked a very strong winner racing in second place, travelled well approaching the home turn. He didn’t have the pace to match from 1.5 out and tired in the final furlong. A fine form, also given the fact he covered about a lengths more than others in front of him that day.

He ran petty well in recent weeks and months, including achieving a 50 speed rating here as well s a 56 one at Chelmsford in January. He’s clearly in strong form and now has been given a chance by the handicapper.

Dropped 2lb to a mark of 55, with a good draw and a CD that may suit, he’s well weighted. He Won off 55 and 57 last season and should enjoy a strong pace to track here which should bring his extra bit of stamina to the fore in the closing stages.

10pts win – Dark Design 5/1

Betting

All-Weather Tuesday Selections: 14th March 2023

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Candy Warhol was seriously well backed on Monday, sadly she refused to settle and was keen for the majority of the race. It wasn’t a surprise to see her fade away.

Perhaps she needs some headgear. I wouldn’t lose hope quite yet and may be prepared to give her another chance next time.

All eyes will be on Cheltenham on Tuesday. I’ll settle in front of the TV with a good coffee and enjoy the races. But won’t be getting involved from a betting perspective.

Yes, I have a few fancies. But ultimately nothing strong enough to suggest it would be a good bet. My monetary interest will be riding on the Southwell Tapeta, instead.

…….

5.20 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

With a top amateur in the saddle Biplane looks ominous off a 62 mark. Judged on his very best effort over this C/D last summer he’s theoretically the one to beat. But he’s only ever ran once in 24 career runs to that level of form.

He will have to be a that level here, though, because I reckon the lightly raced Streetscape could have a few pounds in hand after a highly promising comeback- and first Handicap run last time out at Newcastle.

He moved forward to track the early pace until he started to challenge the leaders from over 2 furlongs out. He was gutsy right to the line but beaten by winner and second from the rear of the field in the end.

I thought he showed great attitude there, as he settled well early on and looked like trying seriously hard in the closing stages to keep the challengers at bay.

The race finished in a sprint, which can’t have been to his advantage, I believe, as he should stay a bit further on pedigree.

For now a mile should be fine. This is only going to be his 5th career-run and from his low draw I expect him to be a bit more aggressive this time to ensure it’s a solid gallop that will suit him.

The 3lb claim of Alice Keighley should be solid value. She usually sits on good chances, and posts a seriously strong record especially for this yard.

With that in mind, this lad should have a cracking chance and too much to offer of his rivals in this race.

10pts win – Streetscape @ 5/2

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8.30 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Hot race. Autumn Angel has probably been leniently treated by the handicapper for her latest course and distance success. The issue I see: she will need a bit of luck and a clear run to catch those who inevitably will be any number of lengths in front as they turn for home.

Papa Cocktail is obviously of huge interest to me. A horse I am tracking since summer last year; he caught the eye once again in dramatic fashion last time; he’s almost certainly seriously well-handicapped. But I want him over 7 furlongs. He’s not one to trust and this shorter trip isn’t his best.

Putting any faith into a 15-race maiden may not be the wisest move. But Whiteandblue was a huge eyecatcher last time out as well, and I couldn’t be happier seeing her over 6 furlongs round a bend.

Last time at Newcastle she moved quickly forward and set a red hot pace – they went faster over the first half than the class 4 Handicap over 5 furlongs on the same card. She continued to lead until deep inside the final furlong but eventually was overwhelmed.

A huge run. And a career best speed rating – she had enough time to recover from the effort, and has been left untouched by the handicapper. The winner of that race went on to give the form a strong look having won subsequently again.

Since having changed yards her form has gradually improved and it looks like the penny may have dropped.

From the #6 draw she won’t have much trouble getting to the lead, or at least following it closely. Ireland’s Eye will move forward as well, most likely. I think this can only hep her to settle, having a bit of company early on.

Of course there is a chance that they go too hard once again. But I hope the turn will slow them down that little bit more than it was possibly at the straight Newcastle last time.

10pts win – Whiteandblue @ 6/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 7th March 2023

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Quite disappointing performances from both selections at Wolverhampton last night. Both relinquished rather willingly their low draw, and neither got properly involved in the finish of their respective races.

Surprised me. I must admit, because I was quietly keen on both horses being seriously overpriced; I wasn’t expecting but certainly hoping for huge runs. Shows even if you ‘feel’ you sit on really strong bets, it doesn’t mean anything in this game.

……..

8.00 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

Second run after a break, Roman Dynasty looks seriously dangerous off a career-lowest handicap mark today over a course and distance that should suit, with Spencer on board.

He caught the eye twice in October at Chelmsford, especially that October 22nd run was noteworthy, because with some imagination one could see how he possibly goes seriously close with a clear run that day.

His comeback run a fortnight ago was clearly one of the rather eyecatching sort as well. He had a wide draw to overcome, travelled well off the pace, going well into the home straight, and made excellent progress under hands and heels to finish the fastest in the final furlong.

A better draw today, another two pounds off the mark that brings him down to 69, a career-lowest Official Rating – he should be ripe and ready to rock.

On past performances he appears to be pretty well handicapped: he ran to topspeed 72 on turf last summer and he looked more than capable to be better than his current 69 rating, judged on his All-Weather efforts.

The early money has dried up and he’s on the drift in the betting this morning, especially on the exchanges where it feels a bit suspect that I managed to get 15/2 and bits matched for my entire stake without too much hassle, given earlier industry prices showed around 9/2; something I don’t like to see when Spencer rides.

But I don’t see a reason why he shouldn’t run his race today, with wellbeing and form confirmed in no uncertain terms in a winnable contest.

10pts win – Roman Dynasty @ 15/2

Betting

All-Weather Tuesday: 28th February 2023

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It was eventful day on multiple fronts. Only on the betting front it didn’t click. Still searching in vain for the winner that gets me out of this rotten spell.

Sharron Macready went off favourite in the end. Great, I got a super price, once again…. it counted for nothing. No excuses, though. She had every chance and wasn’t good enough.

…….

7.30 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Is this ‘the’ day for Galileo Glass? The early market suggests it could be the case. More so, it’s been his last two performances that suggested he is close to peak form, however.

Mid-January over this course and distance he was a significant eyecatcher as he was restrained at the back of the field after a good start. He turned for home in last position, seemed poised for a solid challenge, but didn’t get a clear run before he finished easily.

Fitted with a visor for the first time when last seen, over the same course and distance, he was sharp out of the gate, possibly did a bit too much early on, though, yet travelled strongly into the home straight. He didn’t quite get a clear run over 2f out; in any case he didn’t have a chance with the winner and tired.

Both runs appear to be strong form, and made plenty of appeal visually. He drops into 0-60 class here, dropped a pound in the ratings, where he’s meeting a really poor bunch of rivals in this field.

The #11 draw is a not ideal, there is a clear danger that he is going to be caught wide. It’s worth taking the risk simply because I think he has quite a bit in hand in this field. The booking of Oisin Murphy is a bonus.

10pts win – Galileo Glass @ 5/1

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8.30 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

I am following Big Impact for a while. He’s been quite consistent this winter, having performed with credit and ran to some solid speed ratings.

He looked somewhat in the grip of the handicapper, but he caught the eye a number of times when he ran better than the bare form suggest also.

Now down to a mark of 55, 4lb lower than his last winning mark, as he drops down into 0-55 class, he must have a tremendous chance.

He’ll enjoy the ideal #3 draw here and should enjoy the fast pace of the race. He tends to pull hard; so happened last time out over this course and distance. Then from a wider #7 gate he just didn’t settle and wasted a lot of energy.

It was still noteworthy that he kept coming back for more in the closing stages. He should get a lead here from Ustath, and hopefully drops his head. That’s the risk, always.

But this is a not an overly competitive race. He’s clearly in excellent form as evidence of three speed ratings of 56+. He’s potentially on a lenient mark and can move forward from the perfect draw.

10pts win – Big Impact @ 13/2

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 21st February 2023

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It was a major disappointment today: Otto Oyl finished down the field. The way he dropped out didn’t look right and too bad to be true. So it was: he was found lame post-race.

Here’s hoping for a speedy recovery. I am prepared to give him another chance. Ideally in a Handicap, as I still maintain the view that he could be seriously well handicapped.

…….

8.00 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

In all her recent runs Sharron Macready looked desperate for a drop in trip. Usually she would charge forward seriously keen, pulling hard and setting a hot pace from the front. All her recent runs can be upgraded for that reason.

Especially three runs back in September at Wolverhampton she ran a huge race from the front off 4lb higher than today and was less than two lengths beaten in the end.

I also quite liked her most recent run at Kempton after a small break when she kept going even after being headed and heavily challenged on all sides. The form of those two last runs appear strong, as well.

She didn’t have the opportunity to run over the minimum trip yet. Now dropping in grade, she could have superior speed and class in this field. It’s a pretty deep field for this grade, though.

Nonetheless, she enjoys a favourable low draw, and should enjoy the company of Dark Die Prince, who is likely to move forward from the #1 draw. She should have his lead to follow, which should help her to settle.

The fact she is so unexposed brings its own dangers. She hasn’t ran a serious speed rating yet, but I attribute that to the fact that she wasn’t able to finish her races over 6 furlongs after the early exertions.

Rossa Ryan in the saddle is a big plus. He rides these sprint trips really well on the All-Weather. An additional benefit is the strong record for the sire Mehmas with his offspring over this course and distance (25% strike rate, A/E 1.47) .

10pts win – Sharron Macready @ 9/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 7th February 2023

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8.30 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

I’m somewhat puzzled as to what the early market sees here. Of course, value is always personal, but I’d argue – even if he would find a way to win – Dinoo at 7/4 is shocking price, for a variety of reasons.

Sure, you can argue he was a shade unlucky lto, but I am adamant he’s a highly suspect stayer over this trip. I was wrong before about his stamina, though; perhaps I’m not the judge to trust in this matter. Nonetheless, I happily take him on.

He’s a son of Starspangledbanner who has an atrocious record at Wolverhampton, and is clearly not a great influence of stamina.

To be honest, there isn’t much else in this race. Possibly that makes Dinoo the default favourite, in fairness. Bit Harsh is up in trip, a son of Australia has a chance to improve for the trip, but he certainly has to do s, as he’s yet to run a fast enough speed rating to believe he’s anywhere near as good as his new mark asks him to be.

Spiritofthenorth has a fine record fresh. If he’s fit, he has the profile to keep improving over this sort of trip. But he’s been off since August, and he may not get an easy lead here, has a career-highest AW mark to defy.

Bottom-weight Order Of St. John with a 7lb claimer in the saddle would be dangerous if allowed to get his own way up front. But he had a poor comeback run and is yet to win over this longer trip.

That’s how I came to the position of believing Percy Willis is hugely overpriced. Ideally I would have liked a couple pounds less or at least, formally, a slightly lesser race. However, this is not a strong 0-75 Handicap.

The gelding is in superb form. He was certainly a bit unlucky not to finish a lot closer the last two times since coming off a small break. In a slowly run race at Wolverhampton he seemed to hit top gear – he needed a moment or two to get there – as he was badly squeezed out at a crucial stage of the race. He got going again, which was impressive.

He found his route forward blocked two furlongs from home the next time at Newcastle as well after travelling strongly.

It’s the risk attached to this lad. He makes life tough for himself. That’s a danger here, especially if they don’t go a solid gallop, he may find himself in a tricky spot when the field enters the home straight.

He has got a #3 draw. Ideal, normally. He can jump and simply settle third or fourth a few lengths behind the pace setters who are jumping from 1 and 2 gates.

If he gets too far behind, he will likely be stuck in a pocket and may get out too late. There is a danger. But there is plenty of upside if he can get into a prominent racing position. Those horses tend to fare best over this course and distance.

Percy Willis is currently rated three pounds lower than his last victory (this CD), and a pound lower than his second last win. These performances came last year, and it was only as recently as October that he was just beaten by a head off a 72 mark, running to a 71 speed rating over this course and distance.

Clearly having proven to be in the same sort of form right now, he is one of the likelier horses to run to form here, with no doubts over stamina and track suitability.

There is currently still a significant discrepancy in odds on offer with traditional bookies and on exchanges. I can’t imagine this to last much longer. I grabbed every bit of the 9’s on offer and supplemented for my full stake to get 15/2, which I feel is absolutely massive for this horse.

10pts win – Percy Willis @ 15/2

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 17th January 2023

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8.00 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Surprise Picture should have a cracking chance in this field from the #1 draw back over 7 furlongs. He dropped 6lb since his eye catching run over this trip at Wolverhampton in a hot class 4 contest in November.

That day he was hurried up to move forward from the start, even though heh looked a bit awkward. He tracked the pace, but didn’t received an economical run before finding himself short of room 1f from home when coming with a challenge.

He caught the eye earlier in November, too, when caught wide, and again received a seriously uneconomical ride, and he followed up with another strong run over this CD mid-December. I can forgive the last 6f effort from a wide draw.

He ran multiple times ran to speed ratings of 68+ last year; so down to am mark of 64, having shown good form lately, gives him a superb chance as he drops in grade as well.

10pts win – Surprise Picture @ 10/1

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8.30 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

I am delighted to see Paddy K dropping in trip. It was obvious the last number of times that he just finds a way to get beat if he races beyond this distance. He’s certainly a tricky character, and his winless record tells the tale.

But down in trip, in a race that should suit from a pace scenario, with a good draw, off a career lowest mark, he looks seriously overpriced.

He caught the eye a few times – when seen the last time and only time on the All-Weather over 6 furlongs at Newcastle in October when he fought gamely despite having a far from ideal race.

He ran really well prior to this on his final turf start of the 2022 campaign as well, and followed up with a number of solid runs on the sand over 7 furlongs, before running his possibly strongest race at the end of November at Kempton.

His form has tailed off subsequently, and that’s a concern. But he doesn’t stay a mile and 7 furlongs is a stretch too; especially when he pulls hard and goes hard from the front, as he did the last time. I think, with that in mind, those last two runs can be forgiven.

Now, you don’t want to make constantly excuses for a horse still without a career win after 16 starts. He is a seriously tricky horse. Can pull, can hang, can mess up at the gate, but clearly he also on a good mark, if he can run to anywhere near the level of form he showed toward the end of last year, now down in trip.

I won’t give him any more chances beyond this. 6 furlongs from a good aw with what could be an ideal scenario with Dapper Man possibly giving him a lead; he’ll never find a better chance to get his head in front, ever.

10pts win – Paddy K @ 15.5/1