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Betting

Monday Selections: 8th May 2023

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Frustrating Sunday. Frustrating weekend… would, could, should. Al Husn and Up And Under solid 2nd place efforts. Although, it was a poor ride by Mikey Sheehy in the Derby Trial.

The pace wasn’t hot and he gave the colt way too much to do. Al Husn ran well but had no chance with the winner. I think she should be capable of winning a Group 3 over 10 furlongs, though, and remains on my list.

Remarquee never seemed to travel and was beaten before the 1000 Guineas approached the halfway mark. Mawj, who I mentioned in the preview as “a danger I seriously rate”, won in a thrilling finish. Of course I left her unbacked.

Sir Benedict was the “cherry on the cake”. Not. Yes. I’m talking through my pocket, and of course the horse is one who finds trouble consistently. But there were ways to avoid it here. Callum Rodriguez made every effort to ensure he finds the trouble today. Disappointing.

Well, it could have a been a sensational weekend. It wasn’t. The winner on Saturday helps to even things out, to the most part. On to Monday….

…….

7.15 Windsor. Class 5 Handicap, 5f

I am prepared to give Concierge another chance after his solid but ultimately uncompetitive effort at Yarmouth last month. I backed him that day, despite some reservations given the surface and trip.

He moves up in grade but drops down in trip. I don’ think this race is overly competitive, so I’m not concerned about the class. However, I do fancy him over the minimum trip, especially with cut in the ground.

He’s a course and distance winner as well and has dropped another pound, down to a mark of 65. That’s only a pound off the 64 speed rating he achieved back in March at Kempton – although that was on the sand.

Nonetheless, that run clearly showed he’s still well capable to run to a competitive level in these lower grade.

That day Concierge was a serious eyecatcher as he travelled at the back of the field. Made really good progress on the inside and showed multiple accelerations from mid-race right onward to finish the fastest from 4f out.

He couldn’t follow-up at Chelmsford, but travelling wide throughout, chasing the pace, was the reason why he dropped out badly in the closing stages.

As mentioned before I do forgive him the Yarmouth run, too. Deep ground and 6 furlongs – it was an error of judgement on my part. This test here will suit perfectly.

10pts win – Concierge @ 8/1

………

8.45 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

A competitive race on the sand for this class with many chances, but that helps to drive the price for Bayraat to a point where it’s impossible to ignore him.

He drops down to 0-65 level here after he ran with tons of credit on his seasonal reappearance at Southwell in a slightly tougher race over 7 furlongs five weeks ago.

He crossed over from the #8 draw to lead the field early, before following closely the leader, doing so a little bit too keenly. He hung in the closing stages, but ran on nicely at the same time.

That performance was in line with the one that caught my eye for the first time back in November last year at Newcastle over 6f when he was lightly bumped after the start, quickly moved forward and found plenty under pressure from 2 furlongs out. That form looks solid.

You can easily forgive him a subsequent poor showing (15/11) over 7 furlongs as he was restraint at the back of the field and never in the race.

He only made his belated handicap debut at Southwell and appears off potentially well handicapped now off 65 as he drops into an easier race as well as moving down in trip.

6 furlongs with a stiff finish such as here at Newcastle may well be an ideal scenario. On his only course and distance run he was a strong runner-up. The winner that day ran well in class 3 company off 83 subsequently, whereas third and fourth placed horses have won in the meantime.

10pts win – Bayraat @ 8.5/1

Betting

All-Weather Tuesday: 28th February 2023

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It was eventful day on multiple fronts. Only on the betting front it didn’t click. Still searching in vain for the winner that gets me out of this rotten spell.

Sharron Macready went off favourite in the end. Great, I got a super price, once again…. it counted for nothing. No excuses, though. She had every chance and wasn’t good enough.

…….

7.30 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Is this ‘the’ day for Galileo Glass? The early market suggests it could be the case. More so, it’s been his last two performances that suggested he is close to peak form, however.

Mid-January over this course and distance he was a significant eyecatcher as he was restrained at the back of the field after a good start. He turned for home in last position, seemed poised for a solid challenge, but didn’t get a clear run before he finished easily.

Fitted with a visor for the first time when last seen, over the same course and distance, he was sharp out of the gate, possibly did a bit too much early on, though, yet travelled strongly into the home straight. He didn’t quite get a clear run over 2f out; in any case he didn’t have a chance with the winner and tired.

Both runs appear to be strong form, and made plenty of appeal visually. He drops into 0-60 class here, dropped a pound in the ratings, where he’s meeting a really poor bunch of rivals in this field.

The #11 draw is a not ideal, there is a clear danger that he is going to be caught wide. It’s worth taking the risk simply because I think he has quite a bit in hand in this field. The booking of Oisin Murphy is a bonus.

10pts win – Galileo Glass @ 5/1

……

8.30 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

I am following Big Impact for a while. He’s been quite consistent this winter, having performed with credit and ran to some solid speed ratings.

He looked somewhat in the grip of the handicapper, but he caught the eye a number of times when he ran better than the bare form suggest also.

Now down to a mark of 55, 4lb lower than his last winning mark, as he drops down into 0-55 class, he must have a tremendous chance.

He’ll enjoy the ideal #3 draw here and should enjoy the fast pace of the race. He tends to pull hard; so happened last time out over this course and distance. Then from a wider #7 gate he just didn’t settle and wasted a lot of energy.

It was still noteworthy that he kept coming back for more in the closing stages. He should get a lead here from Ustath, and hopefully drops his head. That’s the risk, always.

But this is a not an overly competitive race. He’s clearly in excellent form as evidence of three speed ratings of 56+. He’s potentially on a lenient mark and can move forward from the perfect draw.

10pts win – Big Impact @ 13/2

Eyecatchers

All-Weather Eyecatchers #8

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the All-Weather. Find all previous lists here.

Counsel
07/02/23 – 7.00 Wolverhampton:

Seriously keen from wide draw, jockey tried to restrain him, before rushing forward on the widest outside to grab lead entering the home turn, having done way too much up to that point. Fell away in the final two furlongs.

Some interesting tactics have been deployed on this horse lately. Caught the eye last time as well. He’s possibly a few pounds too high in the mark. Strong run last month when runner-up at Chelmsford off 76.

Drop to 7f could be interesting, although no doubt he stays a mile. Needs a bit more help from the handicapper and one to watch out for when the market signals are positive.

Race Replay

First Company
08/02/23 – 6.30 Kempton:

Crossed quickly over from #11 draw to the inside, seriously keen, especially tough to control up on entering the bend. Travelled strongly into home straight, not quite the clearest of runs but impressive change of gear as he weaves through the field from 1.5f out, before getting tiered.

Probably doesn’t stay the trip, but also finds it tough to get home over 7f due to racing too freely. Sole win over minimum trip. Still unexposed on the All-Weather over shorter sprint trips.

Yet to be expected to run well on the sand. Comes down to intriguing mark. Drop in trip and good draw could do wonders. Ran six times to 70+ speed ratings on turf over 5 furlongs.

Race Replay

Outrace
08/02/23 – 7.00 Kempton:

Moved forward to lead, was about three lengths ahead soon, reduced lead entering the home straight and headed 2f out, kept answering the challenge and rallied strongly. Eventually tiered, finished third with winner from well off the pace and on back to back wins.

Showed great attitude and continues his excellent recent form. Would be really interesting down in trip over 7f. Even though he won over a mile, he probably doesn’t see out a strongly run race, but has the pedigree and pace to dominate over the short trip.

Race Replay

Far From A Ruby
09/02/23 – 5.10 Newcastle:

Moved quickly forward from #1 draw, early on isolated on her side; pushing a hot pace. Rapidly faded away from 2 furlongs out.

First run in 135 days, dropped away like one who was badly in need of the run. Lovely pipe opener, though. Trip too short and she was able to go the pace early on.

Will be interesting once up in trip again, 7-8f. Showed in Autumn to be still capable of performances that could see her well-handicapped off her current mark, running to a 58 speed rating at Ayr, a career-best on turf. She is better on the sand.

Race Replay

Whiteandblue
09/02/23 – 5.10 Newcastle:

Moved forward quickly and set red hot pace – they were faster over the first half than the C4 5f Handicap on the same card. Continued to lead until deep inside the final furlong. Huge run. Career-best speed rating.

Still a maiden, but has the penny dropped? Off same mark really interesting for drop to 5f once more, or 6f around a turn. Ran to 58 in the past and now 59 speed rating.

Race Replay

Papa Cocktail
10/02/23 – 5.35 Southwell:

Awkward away, travelled in rear, loads to do turning for home, seemingly going well; no clear run; finished seriously strongly in the final furlong.

Caught the eye a number of times on turf last year. Tricky horse, seems to have developed issues at the start. However, not expected since August, so somewhat mitigating factors for seemingly poor form.

Up in trip over 7f, if any support in the market he’s going to be serious runner, if he can get well away from the gate. The could have quite a bit in hand before the handicapper one the handbrake is off for good.

Race Replay

Leabaland
10/02/23 – 6.30 Dundalk:

Travelled really strongly into the home straight. Squeezed upon entering the straight, and multiple times a clear run denied subsequently. No chance to unleash a challenge.

One who seems to find trouble. Not always the clearest of passage the last two runs either. Caught the eye back in October too. Didn’t have a lot of luck with a low draw ever since.

Remains of interest over a mile, ideally with a good draw. He looks in fine form, ready to strike.

Race Replay

Race Replay

Insomina
10/02/23 – 7.30 Dundalk:

Moved quickly forward to grab the lead and set solid fractions from the front. Still ahead by a couple of lengths entering the home straight before fading rapidly.

Changed hands for £3k in December. Three poor runs since, although this one looked more positive given the enthusiasm he travelled with.

Ran to 73 speed rating last summer on the AW. Market will dictate when on a going day. Ideally gets more help from the handicapper before I am getting involved. 7f with a good draw possibly the ideal scenario.

Race Replay

Gobi Sunset
11/02/23 – 7.30 Wolverhampton:

Bumped right after the start, pushed forward to lead, setting a healthy gallop. Still ahead entering the final furlong before swamped. Followed up with solid effort at Newcastle.

Off a long break. Usually does well fresh, but was a drifter on the day and perhaps not quite as ready as in previous years. Not too well-handicapped right now but good chance in a similar race over 6 or 7 furlongs with any from the handicapper.

Race Replay

Ri Na Farraige
13/02/23 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

A bit keen early on, then travelled really strongly. going well and making progress from 3f out, challenge on the wide outside, a bit hanging over 1f out, couldn’t catch winner. Strong form and race

Only second handicap run, achieved 64 speed rating, in line with current mark. Any improvement for second run off break will see him ripe to win.

10f entry next week interesting. Stamina isn’t assured, and he must settle; but worth a go as he kept running well to the line here.

Race Replay

Turbo Tiger
14/02/23 – 7.30 Newcastle:

Moved quickly and keenly forward, probably wasting quite a bit of energy. Swamped over 1f out, bit flat footed, before coming back for more late, which was impressive.

Freshly gelded. Comes to more realistic official rating after a harsh opening mark. Will be interesting for drop to class 6 and possibly a 55 mark as then much more realistic to see him being competitive.

Full-brother to a decent sprinter who does his best over 6f, hence goin up in trip possible as well.

Race Replay

Bridge Water
15/02/23 – 5.00 Kempton:

Widest draw, restrained and trailing the field, nicely settled. Travelled strongly and made strong progress from 3f out. Finished much the best. Just been poorly positioned.

Unlikely to be strong form. But her run prior warranted an upgrade too. Probably needs a step up to 7f. Can improve then off a low mark.

Race Replay

Rogue Force
15/02/23 – 7.30 Kempton:

Good start, up wit the pace early, bit keen, before then settled in a position tracking the pace. Travelled the best to the 2 furlong marker but didn’t find much off the bridle.

Didn’t see out his races too well the last two times. Looks in need of a drop to 7f, unless previous wind issues are back . Won over 7f off 75 in the past.

Looks one who needs frequent breaks, usually best on second start. In right conditions certainly of interest given mark will continue to fall.

Race Replay

Royal Tribute
15/02/23 – 2.20 Dundalk:

Tracked pace in midfield three deep, travelled well, but looked awkward and hanging in the home straight. Solid follow-up from excellent runner-up performance in early February.

That day over 7f furlongs he made good use of low draw and tracked pace. Travelled really strongly into the home straight, on the bridle approaching 2f out, ran on for strong second. Form franked subsequently.

Becomes interesting if back over 7f and with any help from the handicapper with a good draw. Appears to be in fine form and not far off the excellent form shown on turf last summer.

Race Replay

Pittsburg
17/02/23 – 1.50 Lingfield:

Travelled on the inside well off the pace, going strongly, notably on the bridle entering the home straight with plenty to do. Not clear run until the final furlong marker; ran on easily.

Trip too short. Big price, wasn’t expected. Flat maiden but unexposed on the flat. Three strong performances prior over 1m to 11f. Will be interesting up in trip again, especially with any help from the handicapper.

Race Replay

Revoquable
17/02/23 – 5.15 Southwell:

Crossed over from widest draw quickly to track the leader closely before taking up the front from over 2f out. Gutsy and answering the challenges until getting tired inside the final furlong.

Will be intriguing once he drops below a 55 mark, ideally also down in trip to 7 furlongs. Should be strong runner in those circumstances.

Race Replay

Lady Nagin
17/02/23 – 6.15 Southwell:

Pulled her way to the front right before entering the bend. Wasted a lot of energy. Impressive attitude in the home straight when heavily challenged as she only went down fighting late in the final furlong.

Obviously has stamina for the trip and possibly beyond but keenness is an issue. Won well over CD lto, but I would be intrigued to see her dropping down to 5f, especially at at stiff finish like Newcastle.

Race Replay

Sunset Nova
17/02/23 – 5.30 Dundalk:

Settled well off the pace, travelled smoothly into the home straight wit ha wall of horses in front. Angled out to the stands’ side, as consequence relegated to last. Ran on a bit under pretty light ride.

Was seriously well backed in the morning from 33’s. 3rd run since gelding. Drops down to increasingly sexy mark. Any further help from the handicapper will be a intriguing. Probably 7f ideal at this stage but won over anything 6-8f.

Race Replay

My Little Tip
17/02/23 – 5.30 Dundalk:

Dwelt, lost a number of lengths at the start, then rapidly moved forward to track the pace on the inside. Was going well entering the home straight, answered the challenges before getting tired inside the final furlong.

Tricky sort, lost his way in the last year. Was rated 92 twelve months ago. Changed hands for £12,000 in August. Continued to perform poorly and fell down in the ratings.

Clear return to form. Off a 67 mark over 7 furlongs he looks dangerous if allowed to run on merit and if in the right mood. Dangerous sort, nonetheless.

Race Replay

Eyecatchers

All-Weather Eyecatchers #7

5 Comments

A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the All-Weather. Find all previous lists here.

Naughty Ted
22/01/23 – 12.45 Newcastle:

Swerved violently left out of the gate, lost ground. Got back in touch with the field, always travelling on the outside, without much cover. Outpaced from over three furlongs out, but made nice progress on the widest outside from 3 to final furlong marker.

Disappointing nto at Southwell. Appears exposed,; however, may have a bit more to offer going up in trip, and certainly on grass. Handicap debut in September over 7f at Newcastle was promising as well.

Want to see him back up in trip, one to keep in mind for turf also. However, down to a mark of 50, on AW still interesting. Will be intriguing to see once he’s gelded.

Race Replay

Pepper Streak
23/01/23 – 5.10 Southwell:

Quickly out of the gate, although, slightly awkward in initial phase of the race. Raced freely, bang up with pace as part of quartet, travelling well until fading from 2 furlongs out, paying the price for early exertions.

Only 1/17 but the two final runs in December were quite strong, especially the Southwell performance warrants an upgrade. She’s a tricky sort, tends to races freely.

Will be interesting with any reduction in her mark down to 60, plus if she drops down to class 6 again, as she ran well the last two times in the lower grade. Her speed ratings would give her a good chance in a race with favourable pace and draw.

Race Replay

Big Impact
23/01/23 – 4.20 Wolverhampton:

Reared, bumped right after start, still moved forward quickly to grab solid spot tracking the pace. Held up behind leaders, impeded around the home turn, briefly losing a bit of momentum. Solid finish against inside rail.

Caught the eye a number of times lately, having run strong speed ratings in line with his mark while also having to overcome wide draws. Usually a solid starter.

Is he in the grip of the handicapper? Possibly, although if he can get a solid start he’ll be dangerous, slowly dropping to a sexy mark, especially back over 6f.

Ran nto in Amateurs Handicap over 7f. Ridden too aggressively, didn’t stay.

Race Replay

They Don’t Know
23/01/23 – 7.00 Wolverhampton:

Badly away from the gate, not helped by horse drawn right beside him. Travelled in rear, had a lot to do turning for home. Finished seriously impressive in the last three furlongs, making huge against against the inside rail.

Strong form. Winner backed up. He’s still a maiden. Obviously a difficult sort. Usually an okay starter. Down another pound, ran to higher speed ratings before. Appears to be in serious form.

Race Replay

Legal Reform
24/01/23 – 5.30 Southwell:

Excellent start from lowest draw, moved quickly forward, led early on, pressed for the lead all the way thereafter, still right up there approaching the final furlong, although in reality he was tiering badly from three furlongs out.

Strong run in circumstances, winner and second came from off the pace. Probably needed it still, as this was his second run after a long absence.

Will be interesting if he can drop in class, down to a mark of 70, then over 7 furlongs, because a mile seemed to stretch him in the past.

Race Replay

How Bizarre
24/01/23 – 6.00 Southwell:

Quickly overcame the widest draw to establish a solid lead heading into the turn. Was really gutsy all the the way to the line in a tight finish. Excellent run.

Ran with plenty of credit in all his recent starts. A tricky sort these days, though. Tends to hang in closing stages. Can win one of these poor contests, though.

Entry next Friday over a mile intriguing, if pace scenario favourable. That looks potentially an even worse race than this one.

Race Replay

Emperor Spirit
26/01/23 – 7.30 Newcastle:

Grabbed the lead promptly, set red hot pace, pestered by rival throughout, travelled strongly, but drifted across the track as he got really tired and was eventually beaten in third by horses from off the pace.

Dropped in grade here and clearly up to win in C4. Ran well all winter. One pound below last winning mark from June 2022 as he won over 6f at Chelmsford off 88 running to a 90 speed rating.

Most recent best on speed rating only 82, but now down to mark off 87 and if down to C4 again should have every chance. His RPR’s are not far off his best, so fair to assume he can win off his current mark.

Race Replay

Lost In Time
28/01/23 – 12.33 Lingfield :

Held up off the pace, travelled smoothly into the home straight. Good progress from 2f out, not the clearest of passages and all momentum stopped one furlong out. Got going again to finish nicely.

Caught the eye in earlier this winter. Seemed to have lost all form subsequently. Clear return to form, and has shown to be able to race up with the pace.

Has been left on the same mark. Obviously well-handicapped if in the same frame of mind next time out.

Race Replay

Solar Prophet
28/01/23 – 1.43 Lingfield:

Travelled nicely tracking the pace in fourth. Seemingly in good position, but forced wider than ideal entering the home straight by rival, which cost momentum and possibly victory, as the front-running winner was gone. Took a bit of time to get organised before rattling home strongly.

Didn’t stay a mile before. Strong form over 6 furlongs at Southwell prior, when poorly away from the gate, left too far off the pace, caught wide but made eye-catching progress from halfway through the race.

Ran to speed ratings 52 and 55 in his last three runs. Deserves another chance off a 57 rating over 6 furlongs. Still a maiden, but somewhat unexposed over this trip, especially off a fair handicap mark, and not without hope to improve.

Race Replay

Sun Power
31/01/23 – 6.30 Southwell:

Was awkwardly away from the gate and as a result trailed. Travelled nicely, before steered right into traffic over 2f out. Rather light right in the home straight, but finished best the last two furlongs on sectionals despite being tenderly handled especially in the final furlong.

Second run after a long break. Will be interesting once he moves up to 7f again and the money is down. Handicapper might give him a couple pounds off too. Clearly one readied for ‘the day’.

Race Replay

Alaskan
02/02/23 – 4.35 Southwell:

Widest draw, had to settle off the pace, three wide. Bit of progress around the home bend to come with a challenge on the widest outside toward the unfavourable stands’ side rail. Looked a bit disorganised, took him a moment to hit top gear before running home strongly in the final furlong.

Handicap debut from outside the weights after gelding and wind operation over the winter and off a break after three qualifying runs on turf. Was smashed in the betting.

One to monitor for nto. Intriguing to find out what the handicapper does. He was rated 42 on debut here. He’s clearly a bit better than a basement mark. Especially interesting if he steps up in trip to 7f.

Race Replay

Dapper Man
31/01/23 – 8.00 Southwell:

Tracked the pace and eventual winner early on, got outpaced halfway through, before he had to switch due to traffic problems. Got going again and ran on really well against the unfavourable stands’ side rail.

Far from disgraced in his last four runs since return to the All-Weather. Ran to 50 (in this race) and 52 speed ratings. Veteran who looks set for a big run once he races around a turn again over the minimum trip.

Race Replay

Mustaffiz
02/02/23 – 6.00 Chelmsford:

Pulls his way to the front from #7 draw. Travelles well, although pace not too hot. Tires quickly in the home straight, although positive to see that he continues to gallop to the line well enough.

Wasn’t expected in any of his runs since moving to the UK. Comes down to intriguing mark, especially if he drops in trip. 6f or possibly even minimum trip over stiff 5f at Newcastle would be interesting, with some market support.

Race Replay

Cappananty Con
03/02/23 – 1.20 Lingfield:

Pulled his way to the front, keen, couple of lengths ahead approaching the home straight, only beaten over half a furlong from home eventually.

Trip is too far. Notably that he was positively ridden for the first time in a while. Better than bare result in two runs in December, especially when draw and the way those races developed didn’t help. Clearly back to some decent level of form.

Ran in August still to a 55 speed rating. Veteran, but looks ready to strike once dropped in trip.

Race Replay

Sajwaan
04/02/23 – 2.20 Lingfield:

Pushed forward and had a bit of work to do to get to get close to the pace, tracked leader keenly in first time visor travelling off the rail. Bit outpaced entering the home straight but kept going well to the line, accepting the challenges.

Must be a tricky sort. Already changed yards twice. Still a colt. Should benefit from step up in trip. Dam did best over 7 furlongs. Ran in and around his current mark here but could find more for trip, and potentially gelding.

Race Replay

Letmelivemylife
04/02/23 – 4.20 Lingfield:

Pulled back right after the start, in rear of the field, send wide from 4f out and turned wider than ideal. Going strongly, nonetheless, however never asked a serious question, properly under full drive way too late.

Off a break for new yard, probably prepared. Realistically lightly raced since winning a Wolverhampton Handicap nearly two years ago. 3lb lower right now.

Race Replay

Gowanbuster
04/02/23 – 7.15 Newcastle:

Moved forward quickly, led by a couple of lengths before challenged for the lead from halfway through. Kept going before tiering badly inside final furlong. Fared best of the early pace, but no chance with those ridden with more restraint.

Second run after a break and wind operation. Looked good on comeback run too. Two pounds higher now. Probably more fairly handicapped than well-handicapped right now.

Another drop in the ratings would be interesting, especially down to the minimum trip. I would also love to see him racing around a turn over 6f. Looks unlikely given he usually races at Newcastle.

Race Replay

Muy Muy Guapo
04/02/23 – 7.30 Kempton:

Bit awkward away from the gate, settled in last, travelled strongly into the home straight. Was able to answer every acceleration from the front group, but didn’t get a clear passage, while not really asked for full effort at all.

Handicap debut and first run for the Simon Dow yard off a 100 day break. Very much expect him to improve for the run. He’s still a colt and cost £115k as a yearling.

He clearly has talent. Horses in this grade don’t often travel that well and can answer every pace acceleration that easily.

Race Replay

Betting

Thursday Selections: 2nd February 2023

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January ended somewhat in a disaster. Some was down to luck, some was down to poor decision making. I backed poor value and missed out on some huge opportunities at the other end of the spectrum. Minus 35pts to start the year…..

The second half of January was costly. I made nine selections, four were placed (and beaten in somewhat “unlucky circumstances” in some of those) with one winner. If the photo goes Kommetdieding’s way in the Met it’s a handy profit… tight margins.

Due to some small health issues I didn’t have much time to watch a lot of racing lately. Therefore there won’t be a new eyecatchers list at the end of this week (I try to maintain a bi-weekly rhythm if possible).

……………

1.20 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

The draw may not look ideal on paper, but I back With Respect to overcome it in this field where not many want to move forward. Also these low to higher draws in 12-runners Handicaps over this CD haven’t been such a dramatic disadvantage as one would normally think they are.

With Respect comes here after two eye-catching runs at Lingfield. started awkwardly on both occasions, which is the key concern today, especially with the #9 draw.

He travelled really well for a long time on both occasions, but fell away in the closing stages. It’s fair to assume he was found out for class and speed in a hot contest the last time. His previous run can be upgraded when he did a lot to get to the front and that piece of form has worked out really well.

He drops down in class. This should be a lot easier. He was smart as a juvenile on his debut running to a 90 speed rating. There must have been issues subsequently, he never reached the same heights subsequently, was gelded and off the track for two years.

It’s fair to hope he’s much fitter now with three solid runs under his belt. Down to a mark of 64 he could be quite well handicapped, as long as he gets it right at the start.

10pts win – With Respect @ 6/1

Eyecatchers

All-Weather Eyecatchers #6

2 Comments

A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the All-Weather.

Dark Shot
10/01/23 – 8.30 Southwell:

Poor start from the widest draw meant his race was done and dusted there and then. Crossed to the inside rapidly and keenly. Travelled well subsequently, strong progress against the inside rail as the field turned for home, but effort petered out in the final furlong.

Borderline stays 6 furlongs. No surprise after start from wide draw to see him falter late. Did too much to overcome disadvantage from 4f to 2f. Best All-Weather efforts over the minimum trip, though won over 6f in October off a higher mark.

Slight concern he’s had a few issues at the start lately. Can be hit and miss, these days; no surprise given his age. Looks potentially quite well handicapped if down to 5f from a good draw and a sharp start, though.

Race Replay

Come On Girl
13/01/23 – 1.10 Lingfield:

Awkward start from widest gate, wasn’t an advantage in this field, albeit only five other rivals in it. Dropped to rear, under pressure from three furlongs out, then finished much the fastest from two furlongs out despite turning wide.

Obviously in fine form. Ran to 59 and 60 speed ratings over this CD in November. Not always advantaged by the draw, but often ran well in recent weeks.

Down to last winning mark. Interesting, ideally with a good apprentice on board, otherwise I’d prefer her to drop another couple of pounds, given mares over the winter are always up against it, even if she looks to be in good form.

Race Replay

Hiatus
13/01/23 – 2.40 Lingfield:

Went off hard from the front, seemingly not easy to control, set the world alight in the first half of the race. Was bound to fade badly but managed to hold on for third, albeit hanging in the home straight.

Difficult sort. But this performance is probably strong. Cost only 18k as a yearling, has probably not too much in hand yet, but a drop to 6 furlongs could see him win. Stiff 6f at Newcastle perhaps? I can see 7f with a good draw at Wolverhampton also a possibility, though, especially if the handicapper would be lenient.

Race Replay

Dutugamunu
14/01/23 – 12.35 Lingfield:

Not the sharpest out of the gate, soon moved forward and took quite a grip travelling behind the leaders. Travelled notably well into the home straight but didn’t find much.

He’s a tricky sort who can be a bit slowly away. Didn’t finish his races too well lately. But comes down to seriously low mark now, dropped another 2lb in the meantime, and the way he travelled was noteworthy. Possibly extended too much energy early on.

I would love to see him given another try over 7 furlongs, but have to keep an open mind over a mile as well in the right race.

Race Replay

Holdenhurst
14/01/23 – 3.30 Lingfield:

Moved over quickly from wide draw just to get in front at the entry of the first bend. Led by a couple of lengths and did a lot to get there. Travelled well enough, still ahead at the final furlong marker, before fading badly.

Solid run, better than 10th place finish suggested. Dropped blow OR 50. Still managed some solid speed ratings in the last 12 months; this a return to form in my view. Interesting back at Wolverhampton; even drop to 6f could be interesting.

Race Replay

John O’Groats
15/01/23 – 12.50 Southwell:

Very slowly away from wide draw, in rear, eyecatching progress around the home bend going wide, ran on for second. Appeared to stay on late but his final furlong split is slow.

Quirky sort. Can pull really hard. Ran some intriguing races on turf last year. Lightly enough race but one to monitor for support in the betting and I am only interested once he drops down to 7f.

Race Replay

Aberfoyle
15/01/23 – 1.20 Southwell:

Right on the heels of the leader, travelled strongly, still on the bridle approaching 2f marker, before getting tired. Winner came from off the pace.

Handicap debut, lightly raced, gelded in November. More to come but will need drop to 6 furlongs.

Race Replay

Seagrave Fox
15/01/23 – 1.20 Southwell:

Attempted to make all, led while pestered by horse on his heels. Was going well but quickly faded from 2 furlongs out.

Probably doesn’t stay the trip, given he can exert himself in the early stages. Was his 3yo debut and only 2nd Handicap run. Drop to 6f will be really interesting. One for now, though. Started early as a juvenile and won’t have much scope.

Race Replay

Battle Point
16/01/23 – 7.00 Wolverhampton:

Soon chased the leader, pestered him all the way while pace was really solid. Battled well right to the line before fading late for 3rd.

Off a lay-off, being gelded in the meantime too, strong performance here and inline with lto run that can be significantly marked up; wasn’t fancied here at all.

Still a maiden but clearly down to a good mark, if untouched by the handicapper.

Race Replay

Prince Of Rome
16/01/23 – 7.00 Wolverhampton:

Awkward start from wide draw, bumped into rival, settled off pace, swerved very wide around the bend before moving inside again but being relegated to last. Incredible progress in home straight, finished much the fastest.

Comeback run after a long lay-off. Changed yards in the meantime. Clearly in good nick. Ready to win in right conditions. Monday entry #8 draw not compelling. Wait for a day with a good draw over the minimum trip.

Race Replay

Lady Ursula
17/01/23 – 6.00 Southwell:

Bit awkward away from the gate, ducking left, settled off pace on the outside, never got much cover. Made significant progress halfway through, tried to challenge but bit outpace from 2f out; gutsy and brave ran strongly to the line.

Needs to move up to 6f again. Should have solid chance to stay 7f. Full-sister to modest 75 rated gelding who stays 7f. April foal, may still have some improvement to do. Possibly one for early turf season more than AW.

Race Replay

Galileo Glass
17/01/23 – 7.30 Southwell:

Good start, but restrained at the back of the field. Turned for home in last position, seemed posed for a solid challenge, but didn’t get a clear run, had to switch multiple times. Finished easily.

Lost his form, new yard didn’t bring out any uptick in form yet. But this a clear sign of life. Could be well handicapped on best form. One to monitor if the betting speaks in his favour.

Race Replay

Ornate
17/01/23 – 12.40 Kempton:

Pushed aggressively forward to grab the lead. Always challenged by rival, though. Hot pace, had eventual winner on the stretch, especially around the sharp bend. Tired badly.

Strong run. The old boy can still win. Won off 61 at Chelmsford in October, ran to 63 speed rating there. Will be interesting in less hot race pace wise with good draw over 5f once dropped below 60 in class 6.

Monday entry in class 5 one to sit out.

Race Replay

Tricky Business
20/01/23- 4.23 Southwell

Good progress from the widest draw on the outside of the field to grab the lead soon. Let the field for home ,setting a good pace. Severely under pressure and headed over two furlong out but kept going strongly.

Re-Entry from Eyecatchers #3. Ran well down to 6 furlongs at Newcastle in the meantime, followed up here with a strong effort off lowered mark.

Remains of interest over 6 furlongs, especially if the handicapper leaves him on a 55 OR. has entries over 7f next week. Should be competitive again but I still believe the trip is most likely to far as he will exert too much energy going hard from the front, or else, pulling hard if restraint (despite is sole career win over the trip).

Race Replay

Huberts Dream
21/01/23 – 12.27 Lingfield:

Quickly moved forward, showed good early speed and led enthusiastically. Poured it on from over 3f out and had the field on the stretch, still leading by a couple of lengths approaching the final furlong, before a dramatic collapse.

Did way too much too soon, but impressive how long he kept going strongly. First start as a 3yo, won three juvenile races on the trot prior. Still progressing as a May foal you would expect.

May be too short price, but clearly still capable to win and Handicapper hasn’t much opportunity to hike his mark for this 5/7 finish.

Race Replay

Rebel Redemption
21/03/23 – 6.30 Wolverhampton:

Rushed forward aggressively from the widest draw, got the lead but had plenty of rivals on his heels, some who would often go forward. Led into home straight, and in front to nearly the final furlong before getting tired.

Good run, off a small break, looks to find some form again. Worth to wait for any further reduction in his mark, and when some money in the market. Ran 10 months ago over this CD to 68 speed rating off a 69 mark when he won.

Race Replay

Betting

Friday Selections: 20th January 2023

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It was good to back a winner on Wednesday – Iva Feeling did it really well, as hoped, always nicely positioned from her low draw and she saw out every inch of the mile.

The rare trip over to Dundalk was a profitable one for me – finally positive news on the W front, the third winner for the month; yet, January is nothing to shout about on the P/L sheet.

Not so good was the blatant non-trier Northern Chancer. That’s disappointing to see if you back a horse. But then, that’s the nature of the game I willingly participate in. It’s bound to happen, another time in my favour.

Probably even more disappointing, a disappointment with my own decision making, was backing May Remain. I knew pre-race the pace scenario is against him; was blinded by the mantra chanting in my head “but he’s so well handicapped”.

Maybe he was, and perhaps he’s even more so next time, but the way the race was going to unfold was always going to kill off his chances. This is not hindsight bias because I knew it well enough beforehand, identified this issue and still put the money down. Wanted it too much.

It’s important to be honest with oneself. I can be and know: this was a poor bet. You can’t construct good bets. Only bad ones.

……..

12.50: Classified Stakes, 5f

I must give Ustath another chance. He drops down to the minimum trip, which shouldn’t be an issue, given he’s a multiple course and distance winner.

His most recent run in Handicap company over 6 furlongs earlier this month was disappointing, but the damage was done in the first half of the race, and he also was hanging in the straight.

I go back to the penultimate run, though, that was seriously eyecatching. That level of form, if he could run close to it, will see him hard to beat against poor opposition today.

Ideally he would have a low draw, given those low numbers on the far side are clearly preferred over the 5f at Southwell. But there looks to be little real pace on that side in this race, which means it will probably play out in the middle of the track, so the #9 gate is fine.

10pts win – Ustath @ 9/2

………..

5.15 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

It was an excellent comeback run for Seesawing last month at this venue when 6th after a long break. That form looks quite strong as it has started to work out well.

After an awkward start he moved forward to led toward stands’ side, somewhat isolated there. He seemingly travelled well, before hanging toward the middle of the track from 2 furlongs out; tiering late and losing a few places.

He was entitled to tire, was 330 days off and changed yards in the meantime as well. This run is noteworthy for the strengths of the form and the fact winner and runner-up came from well off the pace, which is no easy task at Newcastle; it gives the form substance, and shows Seesawing ran pretty well from the front.

He’s hopefully fitter today. In any case he’s down to a solid mark that offers opportunities as he’s still lightly raced enough, although also seeking a first career win.

He ran to a speed rating of 63 last year, that ties in nicely with his current mark (minus 3lb claimed by Mark Crehan) and he’s quite unexposed over this sort of trip, especially on the All-Weather and in Handicap company.

I would have liked to see him over 7 furlongs with turn, but the drop to 6 furlongs with a stiff finish as present at Newcastle could be an ideal scenario. There shouldn’t be much competition for the lead and I hope he goes forward, drops his head and will make most of an easy lead.

10pts win – Seesawing @ 5/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 17th January 2023

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8.00 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Surprise Picture should have a cracking chance in this field from the #1 draw back over 7 furlongs. He dropped 6lb since his eye catching run over this trip at Wolverhampton in a hot class 4 contest in November.

That day he was hurried up to move forward from the start, even though heh looked a bit awkward. He tracked the pace, but didn’t received an economical run before finding himself short of room 1f from home when coming with a challenge.

He caught the eye earlier in November, too, when caught wide, and again received a seriously uneconomical ride, and he followed up with another strong run over this CD mid-December. I can forgive the last 6f effort from a wide draw.

He ran multiple times ran to speed ratings of 68+ last year; so down to am mark of 64, having shown good form lately, gives him a superb chance as he drops in grade as well.

10pts win – Surprise Picture @ 10/1

………

8.30 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

I am delighted to see Paddy K dropping in trip. It was obvious the last number of times that he just finds a way to get beat if he races beyond this distance. He’s certainly a tricky character, and his winless record tells the tale.

But down in trip, in a race that should suit from a pace scenario, with a good draw, off a career lowest mark, he looks seriously overpriced.

He caught the eye a few times – when seen the last time and only time on the All-Weather over 6 furlongs at Newcastle in October when he fought gamely despite having a far from ideal race.

He ran really well prior to this on his final turf start of the 2022 campaign as well, and followed up with a number of solid runs on the sand over 7 furlongs, before running his possibly strongest race at the end of November at Kempton.

His form has tailed off subsequently, and that’s a concern. But he doesn’t stay a mile and 7 furlongs is a stretch too; especially when he pulls hard and goes hard from the front, as he did the last time. I think, with that in mind, those last two runs can be forgiven.

Now, you don’t want to make constantly excuses for a horse still without a career win after 16 starts. He is a seriously tricky horse. Can pull, can hang, can mess up at the gate, but clearly he also on a good mark, if he can run to anywhere near the level of form he showed toward the end of last year, now down in trip.

I won’t give him any more chances beyond this. 6 furlongs from a good aw with what could be an ideal scenario with Dapper Man possibly giving him a lead; he’ll never find a better chance to get his head in front, ever.

10pts win – Paddy K @ 15.5/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 15th January 2023

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A rather quiet week on the betting front: only the one selection on Monday; obviously that went as badly as it could. Nothing stood out worthy of an investment ever since.

That’s okay – the week produced a handful of intriguing eyecatchers that will be on the list in the next version (latest eyecatchers here).

One interest today: a small field, but good race this afternoon on the Southwell Tapeta.

……….

2.20 Southwell: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Intriguing contest. Quite open, the betting tells the tale. But only one horse seems to be potentially well handicapped. That is Mogok Valley, who caught the eye when last seen.

That day at Kempton over 6 furlongs he enjoyed a solid start, travelled nicely amongst a group of horses tracking the pace, before things started to heat up from over two furlongs out.

His acceleration wasn’t rapid and he had to switch to his right at the 2 furlong pole, and again when approaching the final furlong marker, in order for clear run. He also appeared to be a tiny bit disorganised, and that cost vital momentum.

The winner, who produced a stunning turn of foot from well off the pace against the inside rail, was long gone before Mogok Valley eventually rattled home in good style for a fine runner-up performance.

This was his handicap debut, and rates as a strong follow-up performance from a recent comeback run over the minimum trip one month earlier.

He is still lightly raced – today is going to be his 6th career start only – and is completely unexposed over the new trip. Moving up to 7 furlongs seems a wise move, given how he ran last time and the pedigree is a solid guide as well: Zoffany’s stamina index is 9.4, while the dam, although a sprinter during her racing career, produced a 1m 5f winner already.

If Mogok Valley can improve for the trip he has a good chance to prove a win or two better than his current rating. He steps up in class, though and obviously has to show that he belongs here. He’s yet to run a speed rating that provides this sort of evidence.

The betting is a bit concerning as he’s drifting a bit this morning. In saying that, he’s pushed out to an acceptable price for me now. I am sweet on him, backing the potential improvement after an eye-catching handicap debut last time out.

10pts win – Mogok Valley @ 3/1

Eyecatchers

All-Weather Eyecatchers #5

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the All-Weather.

Lord Paramount
20/12/22 – 3.55 Southwell:

Moved across from wide draw enthusiastically, probably wasted too much energy fighting for his head early on. Tracked pace four lengths off, going well entering home straight. Looked awkward, then hanging badly from 2 furlongs out. Empty in closing stages.

Won well lto over 7f in Novice company. Would be interesting down in trip, too. Dam did her best over minimum trip. He ran to a 74 speed rating in second career start. Hence opening mark could underestimate him.

Tricky sort. Shown tendency to hang. Still lightly raced and well backed on every occasion. Could be a good deal better than OR 70 if he can get his act together.

Race Replay

The Cola Kid
20/12/22 – 4.30 Southwell:

Moved forward to grab the lead, did a lot in the first three furlongs. Unable to quicken in the home straight, still a solid run, in line with last two performances.

Clearly best over 6 furlongs. Was not expected the last number of times. Comes down to excellent mark. Ran to higher speed ratings last year, and looks capable if on a going day, ideally 6f with a good draw.

Race Replay

Ustath
20/12/22 – 5.00 Southwell:

Off to a quick start, led early on, then as part of duo many lengths ahead of field before fading very badly.

Some return to form, as the enthusiasm for racing is still there. One that’s hard to catch. Comes down to solid mark again. Ran 3x times to speed ratings 54+ last year.

Ran okay nto, but did too much too soon after not starting the sharpest. Ideally would like to see a couple pounds lower in the mark (<62) before getting involved over 6f .

Race Replay

Desert Dream
21/12/22 – 6.30 Wolverhampton:

Was going well for the entire race toward the inside rail, possibly coming with a winning move before badly short of room over 1f out. Got going again. Excellent run.

Consistent 9yo, in the grip of the handicapper right now; still can win, but best speed rating in last half year was only 50. Want to see him down to this handicap mark, too, before getting involved, then over 7 furlongs.

Race Replay

Healing Power
22/12/22 – 11.50 Lingfield:

Lead from the front, albeit pestered by rival throughout. Set good, strong pace early on. Still leading at final furlong, before headed over half a furlong from home. Still managed to hold on for third. Should be strong form, ran to 59 speed rating.

Lenient handicapper dropped him another 2lb. Will be really competitive in similar race over 7f off. Ran tp 64 and 65 speed rating within last half year over this C&D.

Race Replay

O Twenty Boy
22/12/22 – 5.00 Southwell:

Bit outpaced at back of the field on stands’ side from over 2f out. Made nice progress in the final furlong under easy hands and heels, though.

Probably better over 6f, especially now as an 8yo. Ran well a number of times this year, including 4 performances achieving speed ratings of 60+.

Already down to a mark of 60. any further reduction will be interesting, in particular once he goes up in trip again.

Race Replay

Eagle Eyed Freddie
22/12/22 – 6.30 Southwell:

Uncontested lead by a couple of lengths. Set blistering pace, especially in the middle part. Still a few lengths ahead over 1 furlong out but tired rapidly. Huge run, speed rating 58.

Consistent front-runner. NTO performance not so good, should help to get some respite from the handicapper. Anything below OR 55 will be intriguing over a mile with a good draw and not much competition for the lead. A drop to 7f would be incredibly intriguing, too.

Race Replay

Shabs
22/12/22 – 7.00 Southwell:

Tracked pace, travelled much the strongest over 2 furlongs out but found little once again. Same story as lto when he travelled like a winner just to fade badly.

Knocked on the door multiple times but it’s obvious he doesn’t truly stays a mile. Pedigree points toward 6 furlongs, in fact. Will only back him if he drops to 7 furlongs. Then should be a cracking chance, ideally with a good draw. He’s not the sharpest starter.

Ran four times to 50+ speed ratings in the last twelve months, to 51 lto; on a mark of 51 right now, huge chance in the right race.

Race Replay

Proclivity
27/12/22 – 4.30 Wolverhampton:

Restrained at the back of the field travelling seriously well. Stuck in traffic and no chance until late when finishing third under hands and heels.

NTO run over 6f can be ignored as well. Wide draw, travelling on the outside keenly and big drifter on the day. Clearly better than this, and more likely in good nick as well as on a good mark. ideally drops down to 5f as best performances came over minimum trip.

Ran three times to speed ratings 60+ on turf; yet to replicate on the All-Weather. But this performance suggests he’s able to win if the handbrake is off. Has shown ability to move forward in the past as well.

Race Replay

Shark Two One
28/12/22 – 6.25 Newcastle:

Pushing pace on far side, they went a serious pace. Was still right there at the final furlong marker before getting desperately tired. Managed to hold on for 4th place.

Was capable to finish fine runner-up off 80 and running to a 73 speed rating last April. Never been in the same form again, but this was a return to some form, racing off a career lowest mark. Deserves another chance over 6f to see whether he can follow-up.

Race Replay

Billy Dylan
30/12/22 – 5.00 Wolverhampton:

Moved quickly forward and led as part of duo setting good pace. Still ahead as they turned for home before tiring quite badly. Strong race with winner went back-to-back and runner-up in form.

Off small break. Could be bang on next time out, possibly another reduction in his mark. Ideally drops down into 0-50; ran largely in better races this year.

Consistent front-runner over this course and distance. With lower mark and possibly easier race should have every opportunity to go close soon.

Race Replay

Big Bard
31/12/22 – 3.15 Lingfield:

Make good use of #1 gate and moved forward, led the field going solid clip, seemingly really enjoying himself for majority of the race. Tired from 1.5f out, though.

Ran to speed ratings 59 and 60 since September, although on turf, but career best AW SR is 59. Will be on a pretty fair mark soon. Ideally want to see him drop below 60 to become really interested.

He was beaten only by a neck off 60 running to 60 speed rating at Windsor in October with first time headgear (CP); I believe he’s as good on the All-Weather; watch out for application of blinkers potentially and/or drop into 0-60.

Race Replay

Fine Wine
01/01/2023 – 4.56 Southwell:

Quickly out of the gates and led as part of trio by a number of lengths, going a seriously hard pace. Tired badly from over a furlong out and hung to his left, but did best of front-runners holding on for 2nd.

Huge run. Went back to back prior. High mark now, may find it tough in Handicaps. More interesting on Stakes races over minimum trip. kept improving with age and this run confirms he’s as good as his current rating.

Race Replay

Modular Magic
01/01/2023 – 5.26 Southwell:

Led the field, although closely followed. Challenged from two furlongs out, eventually got behind, but stuck to it impressively in the closing stages.

Off a small break, had to carry big weight down in class. Hot race for class 5, though. Should find easier opportunities. On a good mark judged on turf performances in 2022.

Race Replay

Hit Mac
02/01/2023 – 1.53 Lingfield:

Travelled in rear on the outside off the rail, possibly wider than ideal. Moved toward the inside over 2 furlongs out, short of room and momentum stopped around the home bend. Possibly cost him the race.

Unlucky sort. Ran really well but found trouble multiple times over the last weeks. Ran consistently strong speed ratings in line with his mark of 55, 58 and 59.

Put up 2lb in the meantime. Can race more forward than here. Think he is still a win ahead with a clear run, ideally over 6 furlongs.

Race Replay

Smooth Red
02/01/2023 – 5.40 Newcastle:

Got significantly outpaced from halfway on, lost ground, before running on rather well in the final furlong.

Handicap debut off a break and freshly gelded, showed nothing in three starts prior. Should improve, especially up in trip. Looks to be crying out for a return to 6 furlongs. Could be interesting then.

Race Replay

Northern Chancer
02/01/2023 – 5.40 Newcastle:

A tiny step slow off the gate, before quickly moving forward against stands’ side. Led and was fastest over first half of the race but appeared to be hanging throughout. Faded badly in the last two furlongs.

Comeback run and Handicap debut. On a basement mark. Showed enough to suggest he can win a poor race. Family tends to do well on All-Weather. Sire has tremendous record over 5f at Newcastle in Handicaps.

May need to step up tp 6f to be seen to best effect. Headgear possibly needed. Wouldn’t rule out minimum trip with HG applied.

Race Replay

Thomas Equinas
03/01/23 – 2.00 Chelmsford:

Slowly away, quickly pushed forward to bulldoze his way to the front after one furlong. Set what looked a hot pace, and resemble more like an extended 5 furlong sprint, as nobody wanted to really go ahead until he grabbed the lead.

Emptied quickly entering the home straight when put under pressure by dedicated 5f sprinter from 3 furlongs out. Winner eventually came from well off the pace.

Still a maiden after 9 runs, but showed plenty of promise, especially two runs back over this CD when he ran off 57 to speed rating 54. Should get bit more help from handicapper now. Usually moves forward.

Race Replay

Jupiter Express
03/01/23 – 2.00 Chelmsford:

Was quickly out of the gate and briefly led, before rivals took over. Keen in the first half of the race. Didn’t have the pace to match winner and third but ran on well for a 59 speed rating n only his second start on the sand.

Ran an interesting race lto over 5f on debut for the new yard also, then at Wolverhampton after a break. Is still a maiden but knocked on the door a few times and achieved some solid speed ratings.

Want to see him drop below a mark of 60 and race over 6f. Not interested in next weeks 7f entry. Will likely pull too hard.

Race Replay

Another Angel
04/01/23 – 2.50 Newcastle:

Good, quick start, led the field by a couple of lengths setting a seemingly hot pace. Travelled well but eventually caught, headed and quickly beaten over one furlong out.

Doesn’t truly stay beyond the minimum trip (0/13 over 6f). Can be upgraded here and ran better than bare form lto as well. Not getting younger but still capable of running well. Especially interesting down to 5f with any additional help from the handicapper.

Race Replay

Kraken Power
04/01/23 – 3.20 Newcastle:

Travelled smoothly tracking the pace. In a good position over 2 furlongs out, but also in a pocket with no way to really get out. Jockey kept the gelding restraint, pulling back to the rear of the field approaching the final furlong in order to find space. Finished strongly, under hands and heels.

Familiar story. Mostly a similar story to a myriad of previous runs. Obviously ready to win, but needs to have absolutely everything to go right.

Won’t back him on the All-Weather unless he finds a way to drop below a mark of 50. He should be too well handicapped to lose, unless he run backwards. Otherwise wait until turf season, with better opportunities more suitable to his style.

Race Replay

Mogok Valley
04/01/23 – 7.00 Kempton:

Good start, travelled nicely amongst group of horses up with the pace. had to switch 2f out, and again over 1f out in order for clear run, looked bit disorganised, too, lost momentum. Ran on really well.

Handicap debut. Strong follow-up performance from recent comeback over 5f last month. Looks on fair mark but can improve for step up to 7f. Sire stamina index of 9.4, dam, although a sprinter during her racing career, produced 1m 5f winner already.

The Nail Gunner
05/01/23 – 2.15 Wolverhampton:

Grabbed the lead, set solid pace. Was up there for a long time and still fought gamely even after headed in the final furlong. This is strong form, winner and 3rd came from off the pace, and were on going days.

7f is too far, especially off current mark. Is rated right to his best. Ran 64 speed rating over 6f in July. Will be competitive, nonetheless, particularly with a good draw and if not much pace to compete against.

I want him down to 6f again and dropping by a couple of pounds. May need a few runs to get there.

Race Replay

Friends Together
06/01/23 – 6.15 Southwell:

Brilliant start, super quick out of the gates and showed solid early speed, settled well tracking the pace and kicked nicely in the home straight. Tired late.

Was most likely not run on merit in all starts prior. Clearly capable off current mark. April foal with a bit of scope, especially going up to a mile interesting.

Race Replay

Praise Of Shadow
06/01/23 – 8.15 Southwell:

Caught three deep on the outside, close up with the pace from his wide draw. Travelled well into home straight, kept fighting, but slightly hampered in tight race for gaps, before eased; ran home easily.

Put up strong speed rating when winning over CD lto. In line with similar speed ratings in when running really well in defeat. Clearly in superb form.

Possibly a bit too high in the ratings to consider really well handicapped. Drop a couple of pounds and 6f with race to dominate will see him have a big chance once again, though.

Race Replay

Cherryhawk
07/01/23 – 12.35 Lingfield:

Settled in rear, always travelling wide. Switched inside for challenge in the home straight. Ran on nicely, slightly short of room 1f out before going again.

Wasn’t expected in three runs. Should get a low opening mark. Looks one I am only interested if stepping up to 10f. On pedigree a fair possibly, and could unlock improvement. I liked the way she finished and responded late to the jockeys urgings.

Race Replay

Wake Up Harry
07/01/23 – 1.10 Lingfield:

Restrained, travelling smoothly well off the pace. Still going well when turning for home wider than ideal, before unleashing a fine challenge in the home straight. Not quite the speed to get to leaders and came from too far back.

Hasn’t been racing over the right trip the last two runs. Can forgive comeback run after long break too. Clear sign of hitting some form again here, will be interesting if up to a mile.

I’d also be seriously keen to see him up to 10 furlongs again. The two previous tries can be forgiven for various reasons. If he’s turned out in the not too distinct future over 1m-10f he should be a huge runner.

Race Replay

Sun King
07/01/23 – 8.00 Kempton:

Pushed after the start to get into position, travelled a few lengths off pace tracking it throughout, still going okay turning for home, bit flat footed as pace suddenly increased over 2f out; switched inside and ran on well, not knocked about.

Comeback run since Royal Ascot in June, in the meantime gelded and sold out of AOB for GBP120k and now trained in the UK.

Still open to improvement. Well bred and full-brother to some smart mares. Took him a few start to get off the mark. But some strong performances in defeat.

Second in a maiden behind subsequent Futurity runner-up Sissoko. Caught eye at Royal Ascot in hot Golden Gates Stakes when finishing well from the rear of the field over 10 furlongs. Races off the same mark currently. Will improve for the run. A strongly run mile needed, or else a step up to 10 furlongs.

Race Replay