Tag Archives: August

German Oaks 2022 Preview

There’s every chance a filly is the best horse in Germany’s classic generation this year. And that says something, given Derby hero Sammarco looks a special colt.

Nonetheless, it was the filly Wagnis who took on the colts in the Derby, who seriously caught my eye that day at Hamburg. With Holly Doyle in the saddle she was fancied in the betting but ultimately encountered the most horrible run from the widest draw in stall 20.

She had to race in rear of the field, which was no advantage at all, and had way too much to do turning for home. Just before the home straight entering the final bend Wagnis stumbled badly and nearly threw Holly Doyle off. The pair recovered, made rapid progress toward inside just to find no room to manouver over 1 furlong out.

Given the circumstances Wagnis confirmed the incredible promise she showed weeks earlier in the Group 3 Diane Trial at Hoppegarten. Then she produced a serious turn of foot to win in style, leaving some solid opposition behind.

It was this dazzling performance so that made connections believe she is good enough to take on the boys in the Derby.

Wagnis is clearly a temperamental filly at the same time. Not an easy ride. She can mess up at the start. She can pull hard. She can find trouble.

That’s a real concern today, where we have with Nachtrose a highly talented and uncomplicated filly, who can go from the front and will stay all day and night.

Nachtrose was a fine winner of the Oaks d’Italia. That was only her third lifetime start, after getting off the mark in a maiden at Munich in April.

She is progressing rapidly and has formally the strongest winning form in this field, given the Italian Oaks are a Group 2. There’s every chance she can improve again. And if she does she may be hard to catch.

In addition Nachtrose has been handed a huge advantage with stall #3. She will get the run she wants, most likely prominent, tracking the pace, if not even attempting to make all.

I don’t rate Toy, Aiden O’Brien’s runner. She improved quite dramatically when a good runner-up in the Irish Derby. But it was a decimated field that day and she doesn’t possess the class some others in this field do.

Well Disposed was a fine winner of the Group 3 Mehl Mulhens-Trophy on the Derby card at Hamburg when last seen. She could improve again but was well beaten by Wagnis in the Diane Trial.

From the bigger prices I give Toscana Belle a solid each-way chance. She changed yards recently, after running on quite well n the Diane Trial. The additional furlong will suit today.

But it’s Wagnis I must go with. She is too big a price. She will need some luck, given most likely she will come from off the pace. I imagine there’ll be a good pace, which will suit, though. It’s a smaller field than at Hamburg, which is a positive too. I have no doubt she is the most talented filly in the race. Here’s hoping she can prove it today.

There is a livestream for Düsseldorf here.

10pts win – Wagnis @ 13/2

Saturday Selections: 6th August 2022

Saturday again, and I come up with the exact same selection as seven days ago! All-Weather, Lingfield…. again. Given it’s the height of the summer and supposedly the flat season this is remarkable. But this was a light week already, as I struggled to find compelling betting opportunities.

The same goes for today. The fast ground at the Curragh deprives me of one opportunity I’d have been excited about otherwise; Shergar Cup isn’t a betting proposition for me.

Saying that, tomorrow is German Oaks day. Really looking forward to the race; there’s oneafilly I can’t wait to see. But more on that later….

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5.00 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Richard P Smith was desperately only a week ago over course and distance when he was way too patiently ridden and never given a chance under a shocking ride by Rob Havlin. He finished strongly, seemingly the best horse in the race. 2lb up for that effort shouldn’t stop him today.

He showed to be most likely ahead of his mark earlier in June on his handicap debut too. There he ran a huge race at Chepstow as he was quite keen early on and was hanging ever so slightly too. He attempted to make all from the front, had the field on the stretch from three furlongs out and found under pressure. He was eventually beaten by a horse from off the pace.

That form looks quite strong already. This race today is a poor contest. He really should be winning this especially as I expect him to be ridden much more positive dropping down to a mile.

Concerns as I write this over the drift in the market. He’s available at bigger prices than what I got and deemed value already.

10pts win – Richard P Smith @ 9/4

Wednesday Selections: 3rd August 2022

3.50 Pontefract: Class 4 Handicap, 1m

Twice now in his last three runs Tangled has seriously caught the eye as an unlucky loser. In truth, he doesn’t make life easy for himself when starting slowly, though.

Nonetheless, last time out at Ripon when he was at a disadvantage from his position travelling off the pace, he also didn’t get a clear run at a crucial stage and had to delay his challenge. He didn’t get the clearest of runs at Beverley back in June, either. He finished strongly in the manner of a horse ripe for victory on both occasions.

In between Tangled produced a disappointing performance at Carlisle when well fancied. A run too bad to be true, and I take confidence from his return to form a fortnight ago.

A mile on decent to fast ground looks perfect conditions. I have slight reservation about Pontefract as a suitable venue simple because coming from off the pace isn’t the easiest task here. However, he appears to be so well handicapped in a pretty uncompetitive race, with only one real danger to beat, that at the price I have to side with him here.

10pts win – Tangled @ 7/2

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5.20 Pontefract: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Mobarhin should have a nice chance to get a handy position thanks to the #2 draw. He drops to 6 furlongs on turf for the first time after being gelded since last place finish at Linfield’s polytrack in June.

He seriously caught my eye two back at Newmarket, though. Then over 7 furlongs, he set suicidal fractions from the front and had the field off the bridle from three furlongs out. He tired and was headed 2 furlongs from home but it was noteworthy how well he continued to run to the line even then.

He showed promise earlier the year on the All-Weather, too: a 6f Handicap win over 6f off a 70 mark, he ran to topspeed 74 that day. He followed up with a nose beaten second over the same course and distance the next time.

Off a 73 mark over 6 furlongs on decent ground I feel he offers a bit of upside, especially at a track and a draw to suit.

10pts win – Mobarhin @ 17/2

Monday Selections: 1st August 2022

I have one selection on this (Irish) bank holiday Monday. But first I’ve got to take a quick lock back at what was a wonderful and pretty profitable month of racing.

July 2022:
46 bets, 9 winners = 162.5pts profit & 35% ROI

It was a fine, fine month from a betting perspective. And possibly even more important to me personally: every month this season was in profit. It’s not always been easy.

The second half of July proved once again how contrasting the good and bad times can be in this game. You have to stay levelheaded and put the emotions aside to succeed. Easier said than done, I must admit.

Clearly my highlight was backing Victor Loza at 12.5/1 to win comfortably from the front at Epsom. I was watching the race in a pub with some friends which made it even more enjoyable.

Betting aside July was a wonderful month purely as a racing fan with top-class action all over the world: Durban July, German Derby, Eclipse…. absolutely loved it.

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7.15 Carlisle: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

A speculative choice at this time of the day given the chances will be significantly enhanced if the rain arrives in time for Gorgeous General.

His turf form reads awful on the surface, but he didn’t have many opportunities to run with ease in the ground, even though he produced a career best on turf judged on speed ratings over this CD on good to soft ground only four weeks ago.

Rain is expected to arrive from late afternoon on at Carlisle, and a significant portion of it. That might be enough to turn the going to good to soft come 7.15pm.

Gorgeous General caught the eye a number of times this year already. Certainly over the CD run last month, when not getting a clear run. Also a strong finish last time out from off the pace in a race dominated by the front-runner was another clear sign that he’s in excellent form.

Yet the handicapper has “rewarded” those fine performances with dropping him in the ratings. This is an open race, he may struggle to get into it from off the pace with space probably coming at a premium. But I feel he’s so well handicapped that at the price it’s worth a go.

10pts win – Gorgeous General @ 8/1

Saturday Selections: August, 31st 2019

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5.15 Wolverhampton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 4f

State Of Affair is a fair favourite here, no doubt. With more improvement to come and having run to topspeed close to his current mark he may well be hard to beat. But he is a short price and has to prove he can translate the same sort of form the the sand.

Proven All-Weather performer Ice Canyon looks dramatically overpriced here, though. He has his third start for a new yard and the hood is back on – which is a definite positive.

His debut for trainer Kevin Frost was pretty decent in a hot contest at Chester earlier this month that looks strong form, even more so given he came off a break.

Returning to a course and distance Ice Canyon has produced an AW career best this winter, when an agonisingly close second of mark of 68, running to topspeed 70 then.

Now 3lb lower than that day, with the hood back on, probably race fit and only a single pound above his last winning mark, he looks potentially well handicapped in a field where not many make any appeal.

Selection:
10pts win – Ice Canyon @ 21/1 MB

Thursday Selections: August, 29th 2019

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It’s my birthday today, so I’d love to  gift myself with a winner or two! August has been a kind month betting wise, hopefully it can end with a bang and lead us well into September, which historically has been a difficult one for me…. but then on the horizon looming larger and larger is the All-Weather season as well!

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4.10 Carlisle: Class 4 Handicap, 1 mile

I think the market got it wrong: Royal Shaheen, turned out quickly under a penalty should be a clear favourite at the top of the market. On old form he remains potentially well handicapped.

However I feel the market makes an even bigger mistake underestimating the chances of Zoravan, who’s been given a real opportunity by the handicapper to find his ways back to the winning ways.

He’s been placed a number of times this year already, of marks as high as 68. He also ran twice this season to topspeed rating of 66. Now dropped to a handicap mark of 64 again, of which he was only a neck beaten in a tight finish over course and distance back in June, shows he’s an obvious chance today and clearly overpriced.

Selection:
10pts win – Zoravan @ 10.5/1 MB

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4.45 Carlisle: Class 6 Handicap, 1 mile

Large field, many horses sliding down the weights which makes this a competitive lottery. Nonetheless the one who stands out is Golden Guest. He’s falling down the weights as well, however, compared to most others here, he’s actually some good form in the book this season already.

He finished 3rd on twice this spring on the All-Weather, of a 4lb higher mark than what he’s now on turf, and still was an excellent runner-up of 72 back in September last year – on all possible ratings he’s pretty much as good on the sand as on turf, although his career best topspeed ratings come on turf, with 66 and 63.

With trip and ground fine, now down to a mark of 63, Golden Guest looks obviously weighted to go really close here. I think one can forgive his latest poor showing which came off a break.

Selection:
10pts win – Golden Guest @ 17/2 MB