Tag Archives: Pontefract

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Monday Selections: 10th June 2024

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I’m still a bit in a state of shock after Saturday, 0/6… it’s going from bad to worse. I guess the positive is: three decent runs, and the majority were prices you can’t expect to go in any day.

But at some point a proper upswing should be on the cards now…?

……

7.40 Windsor: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Safari Dream ran well in his last three races, although he was outclassed, ultimately, in his most recent start at Goodwood, but at least showed once again a fine attitude to finish the race.

He caught the eye the two times prior, in much more obvious fashion. In early May at Salisbury he couldn’t quite find the acceleration in deep ground, yet travelled incredibly strongly to the 2 furlong marker, and just as he seemed to find momentum again, got squeezed out in the closing stages.

At Windsor on before that, he travelled strongly too, and didn’t enjoyed the clearest of passages, getting stuck behind horses. Both runs the 4-year-old gelding suggested he’s in excellent form and the most recent performance doesn’t put me off.

He drops down to class 5 again. Much easier, also with the added support from the handicapper, who dropped Safari Dream to 70, with excellent 5lb claiming apprentice Oliver Searle on board.

The only danger is that if he doesn’t get off to a quick start, he may find himself locked in against the inside rail.

10pts win – Safari Dream @ 9/2

……

6.30 Pontefract: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Spring Is Sprung should have a cracking chance from his low draw and his blistering early speed to potentially dominate, or at least get it easier in the early stages of the races than others.

His turf record doesn’t read too well, but he ran with plenty of credit the last two times, following on from a long break and wind operation.

Especially last time out at Catterick where he got off to a great start, although pestered throughout, set a hot enough pace and only got beaten in the final furlong.

Today is formally a slightly easier race, and another 2lb off his mark can only help. He could be quite well-handicapped now, given last summer he ran well off 78 and 80 in hot handicaps and he has multiple 70+ speed ratings on his CV.

10pts win – Spring Is Sprung @ 7/2

……..

8.10 Windsor: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

I loved the handicap debut from Penalty Shootout a few weeks ago. It was a gigantic step forward from anything the 3-year-old gelding showed in three maiden races.

He was soon up with the pace, travelling seriously well into the home straight, still on the bridle 3 furlongs out and only tiredness seemed to get the better off him late.

If he can improve from that run, he’ll must have serious chance today. Still unexposed, a mark of 60 may underestimate him, as he ran already a fine 55 speed ratings the last time.

He was quite well backed that day too, and the same seems to be the case today. Intriguing to see Oisin Murphy retaining the ride. The pedigree is an intriguing one too, as a son of Bungle Inthejungle the 10f trip doesn’t seem a natural fit.

But I believe if was tiredness, not stamina, that saw him fade at Nottingham. Also the dam is a significant stamina influence looking at the family.

10pts win –  Penalty Shootout @ 4/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 2nd April 2024

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4.15 Pontefract: Class 5 Handicap

There isn’t much substance in this field beyond the short-priced favourite. Bustaam looks progressive and may defy a 10lb higher mark for an easy victory at Doncaster.

On the other hand he hasn’t achieved a good speed rating on turf (yet) in four runs and is prone to miss the kick, not ideal at Pontefract, especially in a possibly slowly run race.

Top-weight Lord Melbourne makes some appeal on his handicap debut, though. Back to the venue where he was seen to best effect last year.

It was a career-best performance here at Pontefract when runner-up behind a subsequent listed winner. He handled softish ground just fine and was simply outstayed over 12 furlongs. However he showed a nice change of gear from 4 furlongs out.

He cost a bit of money as a yearling and is quite well bred, naturally then. Gelded just before his debut run, though, he seems a somewhat tricky character, as the application of cheek-pieces showed in his final runs in 2023.

Head gear is off today, a question mark, but you hope with natural improvement he could be better than his opening mark of 77, given the CP’s didn’t do anything for him.

There is certainly enough substance in his performances, if you strike out his penultimate run at Wolverhampton when injured during the race.

He travelled quite well when last seen at Wolverhampton in December, but was short of room at a crucial stage around the home bend and then didn’t see out the trip, I believe.

A return to turf should be a positive. His two runs where his best, so far, including the aforementioned Ponti run. 10 furlongs could prove an ideal trip, judged by his runs over 1m 4f where he travelled nicely, was also able to change gear but didn’t get home.

The heavy ground is a question mark. He handled good to soft and on pedigree there is plenty of soft ground form, which gives hope. He comes into this 0-75 race as a 77 rated individual. If he can put it all together the gelding could prove way too classy, especially if he gets it easy in front.

This is Harry Davies’ only ride today, and he goes well for this yard, which does well when it sends horses to the front. I hope that’s the game plan today with not much other pace to compete with.

The 4-year-old seems on the drift this morning in the betting. That’s a risk. But I hope he’s not just here for a public workout.

10pts win – Lord Melbourne @ 5/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 25th June 2023

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That was Royal Ascot. A frantic week. I definitely got sucked into more than in preceding years, for better or for worse.

Two big winners clearly helped. Especially as I continue to go through a pretty rotten spell with the ‘bread and butter’ stuff.

Hence it’s positive to see many Ascot selections outran their often big odds. beside the winners Waipiro (12/1) and Royal Champion (33/1), there were plenty of placed ones at big odds (Inquisitively 3rd @ 20/1, Bucanero Forte 3rd @ 19/1, Remarquee 2nd at 33/1).

No good for the P/L as win only backer, but good for the morale. And that’s certainly needed to keep the morale up as Saturday was another hugely disappointing blank, as my handicappers found ways to get beat.

Essme and Huddle Up got close, Shine’s Ambition looked with less than a furlong he may have it. Wasn’t to be. And it weighs on my mind. I know I got way too aggressive this month.

Perhaps it was simply the wrong time for it. Or it was mostly bad luck…. or perhaps lack of good judgement. That’s for another day to determine.

……..

6.45 Pontefract: Class 3 Handicap, 6f

This appears to be a class 3 0-90 in the name only. It’s a big field, but not a competitive race. The pace scenario and draw takes more than half the the field out in addition.

I wouldn’t be too sure whether Rathbone could truly deliver in a proper class 3 Handicap these days, but he showed clear signs of a revival the last two times and has fallen to a tasty mark.

He’s one you’d hope can go forward from a solid #6 draw – this year he has shown better early gate speed, so I’m hoping he’ll do the same today.

Eight days ago his run at York in a competitive Handicap was certainly a highly encouraging performance.

Rathbone showed excellent early speed, was quick through the first four furlongs before gradually tiering. He was probably advantaged by riding on the far side, but still did very well to stay in front for long, before going backwards from 1 furlong out.

The preceding 3rd place effort at Doncaster was also a strong effort as he was significantly quicker through the first four furlongs than the winner and runner-up.

Both forms stand up and look strong. He lost another couple of pounds, down to 79 – he won off 90 and ran to a 86 speed rating last summer still. Most likely he’s not quite as good these days but with conditions to suit and a track and pace scenario putting him possibly at an advantage today he’s on a dangerous mark.

10pts win – Rathbone @ 10/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 26th May 2023

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Lezardrieux was a nice winner today, despite a drift out to 7/1 SP. He was ridden with a lot of positivity and held on gamely.

I wish the other selections would have ridden with the same positivity. It wasn’t to be, and those horses were all bitterly disappointing. It’s quite an up and down this month.

…….

8.55 Pontefract: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

If allowed to run on merit Ventura Express simply wins this? I certainly think so. A course and distance winner, he drops down to his preferred trip, on ideal ground and a track he enjoys off a good mark.

He was a huge eyecatcher last time at Wolverhampton over 6 furlongs, when he was smartly away but soon restrained from his wide draw. He travelled strongly but was certainly not ridden in a way to obtain the best finish. He still ran on well once asked inside the final furlong.

This looked a horse clearly in strong form. He ran a career best speed rating only a few weeks earlier. He also won last summer off 80 at Beverley.

He’s not dramatically well handicapped off 79 right now but judged on speed ratings is the class act in the race given he meets ideal conditions here.

I have a small question mark over the fact that he hasn’t been since since the end of March and a possibly lack of pace. But this isn’t a strong race, he drops in grade as well and I simply hope he can drop his head tracking whoever is going to do the donkey work in the end. His low draw offers every possibility.

10pts win – Ventura Express @ 15/2

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers 2023: #2

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous lists here.

Serious Look
25/04/23 – 4.45 Epsom:

Moved forward quickly to lead travelling wide. Was going strongly approaching the home straight, though gradually tired and fell away in the last two furlongs.

Paid for early exertions, doing too much in deep ground, as those ahead of him in the end were ridden with more restraint.

Travelles well. May found 9f in heavy ground beyond his stamina. A mile in soft ground should be fine, though, so is 7f with plenty of cut in the ground. He seems to hit the ground quite hard.

Race Replay

I’m Mable
26/04/23 – 7.55 Lingfield:

Settled in rear of the field. Travelled strongly, on the bridle as he approached the home straight but went widest and lost ground. Really strong finish. Good form.

Unlucky lto when also a strong run, confirmed here that he’s absolutely ready to strike. Can make a mess at the gate, though.

Would be most intrigued over 5f on turf again. Ran good speed ratings last season, and another 2lb down now, most likely seriously well-handicapped.

Race Replay

Spanish Angel
26/04/23 – 1.50 Catterick:

Widest draw was probably a disadvantage as was travelling on the stands’ side. Made strong progress from 3f out against stands’ rail and finished best of that group.

Huge run in circumstances, confirmed strong AW form, also was a bit unlucky lto. Looks on a possibly lenient turf mark in the right conditions, compared to AW as he’s not 10lb worse judged on speed ratings.

He prefers better ground to be seen to best effect. Didn’t enjoyed these conditions this season yet. Does stay 6f but probably best over shorter.

Race Replay

Soul Seeker
27/04/23 – 2.20 Beverley:

Moved quickly forward and crossed over the the far rail. Led the field, but pressured all the way. battled solidly before fading badly in the final furlong.

Softish ground far from ideal. He’s a different horse on better ground, ideally fast. Ran twice to 78 speed rating off a 77 mark last summer.

Down to a super mark now and after two solid runs under his belt this year, should be a big runner in the right conditions soon.

Race Replay

Lord Rapscallion
27/04/23 – 6.15 Chelmsford:

Grabbed the lead, largely uncontested, was going well entering the home straight. Eventually beaten by those from off the pace. Decent run.

Can ignore next time in class 2. Tricky sort but clearly still with an appetite for the game. Slowly drops to fair mark again. Won off 80 back in December.

Ran twice to speed rating 84+ last year on turf over 7 furlongs. With decent ground should be interesting, especially if he could dominate.

Race Replay

Platinum Girl
28/04/23 – 5.35 Doncaster:

Travelled supremely well from the front and had entire field well on the stretch from 3f out. Tired badly in the final furlong and eventually reeled in by two from off the pace.

Huge seasonal reappearance. Was placed off similar mark last year. Quite experienced and unlikely to have much scope. May find it tough to back up this effort if turned out quickly.

Race Replay

Lotus Rose
29/04/23 – 5.40 Doncaster:

Superb front-running effort. Kicked on from over 2f out and looked the winner until swamped late in the day. Ran to 69 speed rating here, strong form.

Ran multiple times to mid-60 speed ratings and higher. Improved nicely from seasonal debut. Probably best over minimum trip with cut in the ground but 6f on better ground no issue either. Versatile.

Race Replay

Glorious Rio
29/04/23 – 2.05 Haydock:

Badly bumped and squeezed out of the gate by two rivals, trailed as a consequence. Wall of horses in front and had to switch wide to the far side, giving ground and momentum away. Came through well from over 1f out.

Strong run in circumstances. Ran with credit on the All-Weather this year before. Comes down to solid mark. Not tons in hand but ran to 68, 69 and 71 speed ratings since August last year.

Any additional help from the handicapper will bue valuable. He’s better over the minimum trip, and prefers decent ground. Not disgraced at Newcastle on Tuesday off 69.

Race Replay

Dream Together
29/04/23 – 2.05 Haydock:

Travelled quite well on stands’ side, which was potentially not ideal being high drawn in this race, as was away from where the pace developed. Travelled strongly to 2f out before effort petered out.

Reportedly made a respiratory noise afterwards, that may explain the tame finish, although he wasn’t advantaged by the way the race developed in any way.

Small risk whether all is fine with him, but in any case another 2lb down and well-handicapped now. Ran solid on the All-Weather before, somewhat unfortunate. Achieved speed ratings last season that will give him a huge chance wherever he goes, if healthy.

Race Replay

Forward Flight
30/04/23 – 3.35 Wetherby:

Moved forward from #9 draw to closely follow the pace. Pressed the leader from 3f out and couple of lengths ahead before swamped. Accepted challenge and stuck strongly to the task to hold on for 2nd place.

Strong run and speed rating only 2lb shy of current mark, which was left untouched. Given great opportunity if he can find a handicap over a mile in proper soft ground as still somewhat unexposed in these conditions which seemingly bring out the best in him.

Can ignore hurdle and All-Weather form; he looks potentially well-handicapped off 70 in the right conditions.

Race Replay

Belsito
30/04/23 – 3.45 Musselburgh:

Fell out of the gate. Overcame his highly awkward start quickly, as moved forward rapidly to lead after the first furlong even. Did way too much to get there but only fell away from from over a furlong out.

Strong run in circumstances and clearly better than result. Won when last seen in 2022. Full-brother to Group 3 winning miler. Should have no issues going up in trip.

Opening mark no giveaway, but could have a couple of pounds ahead if he moves up to 6 furlongs.

Race Replay

Eponina
01/05/23 – 4.03 Beverley:

Grabbed the lead, although closely followed all the time. Keen in the first half of the race. Under severe pressure entering the home straight. Gutsy, still fought back when beaten over 1f out.

Clearly in good form. Ran well last two times as well. If ground stays soft drop to 7f possibly ideal. Chester entry on Wednesday interesting.

Closely enough rated to more recent best speed ratings, but any help from handicapper will see her having something in hand in the right race.

Race Replay

Master Sully
01/05/23 – 3.33 Bath:

First bumped, then squeezed out soon after the start. Stumbled after the first furlong. Got going again but ultimately never stood a chance. Better than this as he caught the eye at Lingfield before as well when turning very wide but finished well enough.

Not much scope but chance off 47, especially on turf, 5f on decent ground. Some strong performances last year, especially when out of the handicap off 51 at Ffos Las.

Ran twice to 48 speed rating, latest in January. Looks like he’s in the same sort of form as his best from 2022, hence should have a few pounds ahead now.

Race Replay

Sir Titan
02/05/23 – 1.50 Brighton:

Bounced out of the gate from wide draw to grab the lead and set strong gallop. Started to tire from 3 furlongs out, though ran solid to the line.

Not disgraced the last two. Veteran who still enjoys the game. Simply not the old force any more and will benefit from further drop in the ratings and down into class 6.

Race Replay

Mount Mogan
03/05/23 – 6.10 Brighton:

Led, although closely tracked. Still ahead at the final furlong marker, but heavily under pressure. Only faded from half a furlong out. Probably solid form, winner possibly still ahead of his mark.

Comes down to good mark. Ran well on the All-Weather (unlucky 03/03) against good opposition. Will benefit from drop to class 6 again and could be dangerous now, over 6-7f.

Possibly a bit better on the sand, but intriguing on turf off 63 if the ground decent, especially over 6 furlongs.

Race Replay

Hardy Angel
03/05/23 – 4.00 Pontefract:

Overcame widest draw quickly to dispute lead all the way while travelling wide, giving ground away. Hit the front just about with 1.5f to go before getting swallowed for good by two ridden with more restraint. Saddle slipped late, too.

Lightly raced. May enjoy better ground. Good run and interesting off current mark over 6f on decent ground, probably does also enjoy galloping track more than tight ones.

Race Replay

Fiscal Policy
03/05/23 – 9.00 Kempton:

Seriously keen throughout the race, but strongly travelling into the home straight. Tremendous visual impression when let go as he moved forward stylishly from 2.5f out to hit the front in an instant. Markedly tired from over 1f out and caught late.

Often keen over 6f. Ran well number of times before. Achieved 62 speed rating here, hence likely to be ahead of mark, and should be if not too harshly treated by the handicapper after this. Has 5f entries next week. Intriguing over the minimum trip.

Race Replay

Shabaaby
04/05/23 – 2.00 Ayr:

Awkward start. In rear, going okay until outpaced from 2f out. Kept going strongly to the line and finished best of all. Ran to strong 61 speed rating, 3lb below current mark.

Fast conditions over the minimum trip not ideal. Notably how well he ran. Clearly ready in right conditions. Prefers cut in the ground and stays 6f.

Ran to 68 speed rating at Dundalk in January. Changed yards. Tricky customer. Worth to wait for the right conditions. Perhaps ran too good to be dropped another pound our two here, though.

Race Replay

Gullane One
04/05/23 – 4.30 Redcar:

Led his group on the far side. Good pace. Ran strongly to the line but beaten by one from off the pace. Strong form through winner and 2nd.

Better over 6f and pretty ground independent, though may not want the extreme end of either side of the going stick. Ran good speed ratings within last twelve month and this a clear return to form.

Race Replay

Big R
04/05/23 – 2.10 Salisbury:

At disadvantage from the #8 gate. Caught wide and without cover early on, before settling at the back of the field. Good progress on outside from halfway stage. Nearly upside leaders over 1f out, before getting tired.

Comeback run and handicap debut. Huge performance against pace and track bias. Showed good early speed last year. May stay 7f on pedigree but 6f possibly ideal.

Was a cheap yearling but looks clearly better than opening 70 mark.

Race Replay

Michaels Choice
04/05/23 – 2.45 Salisbury:

Had the widest draw to overcome. Huge disadvantage. Raced widest without cover. Good progress from over 2f out, just tired late.

Strong run on seasonal reappearance. Ran to 66 speed rating. Clearly as good as ever. Won off 70 multiple times in the past. Ran to 70 speed rating twice last year.

Loves it at Salisbury. Interesting next time out but in an ideal world he finds a way to drop a couple of pounds to become seriously well-handicapped.

Race Replay

With Respect
04/05/23 – 2.45 Salisbury:

Awkward start, travelled strongly against the inside rail at the end of the field. Good progress but full effort delayed until he got out late to finish strongly.

Ran 70 speed rating equal to current mark. Caught the eye on the All-Weather before. Seems to be still improving and capable of winning, especially if not harshly assessed for this run by the handicapper.

Most likely prefers a bit of give in the ground, certainly no fast ground. Can be a bit tricky out of the gate but usually a strong traveller.

Race Replay

Capofan
05/05/23 4.25 Musselburgh:

Raced about 5 lengths off the pace, quite keen, took a grip. Overraced especially around the home bend and huge move from 4f out to go upside with leaders. Fell away in the closing stages.


Still a maiden and not one to trust too much, didn’t run a good speed rating yet. However this is probably solid form and a drop to 6f will be interesting off revised career-lowest mark.

Race Replay


B Associates
05/05/23 4.25 Musselburgh:

Travelled off the pace, outpaced halfway through, before good progress. held up behind leaders from 2f out, looked bit awkward, possibly hung. Ran on strongly.


Caught the eye lto over the minimum trip at Newcastle as well. Clearly in strong form but a difficult sort. A step up to 1m interesting. Maybe one tough to catch given it’s Goldie.

Race Replay

Azano
05/05/23 – 5.20 Newmarket:

Made the most of the standing start. Led, set strong pace, had the field on the stretch from 3 furlongs out and ran home better than most, bar a strong winner. Strong 92 speed rating.

Clearly up to win and confirmed level of form shown last year. If untouched by the handicapper interesting in similar race, especially in a smaller field.

Race Replay

Island Star
05/05/23 – 4.20 Goodwood:

Tracked an honest pace, always going well. Not a clear run from 3f out when horses led across him and hindered him to move out for his effort. Accelerated well once in the clear, especially after he was close to the pace all the time, before getting tired and not given a hard time in the final furlong.

Won well lto. Looks progressive and could still be handicapped to win off 77, after running to 73 speed rating here in not ideal circumstances.

Race Replay

Vecchio
05/05/23 – 4.20 Goodwood:

Tracked the pace early on, pretty keen through the race. Not a clear run in the home straight and had to delay full effort multiple times, also hung. Finished nicely under and easy ride in the final furlong.

Comeback run and gelded during his break. First try over a mile. Should get the trip easily if he can settle better. A drop to 7f shouldn’t be an issue, either. Should be competitive off a revised mark.

Race Replay

Straits Of Moyle
06/05/23 – 2.00 Thirsk:

Right up with the pace, never far off, always racing in prominent position. Was going notably well 2f out, found plenty for pressure and only went down behind two well handicapped horses.

Strong form. Clearly in good nick. Ran career best speed rating on All-Weather earlier this year, although much better on turf.

Ran 74+ speed ratings twice, including a career-best 79 last summer. Handicapped to win off 72 as left untouched by handicapper.

Race Replay

Lokada
06/05/23 – 1.35 Naas:

Prominent on the far side, travelled strongly, possibly going best. Got up late for 2nd place on his side, but no chance with winner on stands’ side, who was probably advantaged by racing on that side.

Up 2lb, more than fair. Ran to 70 speed rating here and 81 on AW last year. This form should be strong, every chance can progress and win next time. If not for racing from a wide draw lto at Dundalk her record could read even better.

Race Replay

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers 2023: #1

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous lists here.

With the flat season under way, it’s time to shift the focus away from the sand finally for good. Hence this is the start of the new series for the2023 flat season.

There can still be a few horses on the list that caught the eye on the sand, given All-Weather racing never sleeps. But the majority will come from turf from now on. Good times!

……..

Maywake
10/04/23 – 4.01 Redcar:

Bit awkward away from the gate. Swiftly moved over to the far side, travelled strongly as part of the group there, still on the bridle 2f out. Had to sit and suffer, before finally out 1f out and ran on really well to finished best.

Lovely return off a break. Down to a mark of 80 now. Won off similar mark last year (also ran career best 84 speed rating). Enjoys cut in the ground and looks ready to run a big race once again in those conditions over 7f.

Race Replay

Stormy Pearl
10/04/23 – 5.46 Redcar:

Swiftly moved over to join the pace full of enthusiasm, a bit too keenly, doing too much. Nonetheless, travelled the best approaching the 2f marker, everyone else off the bridle. Tired rapidly inside the final furlong.

Strong return, especially on soft ground. Raced a lot for a May foal last year and may not have much scope for improvement. But down to realistic 55 mark again, won off similar plus speed rating last year.

Best form on decent ground. Worth to wait for those conditions, given she doesn’t have tons in hand, but is one who could strike on the right day in these early days of the season.

Race Replay

Wen Moon
11/04/23 – 4.00 Pontefract:

Disadvantaged by widest draw, settled in rear. Turned widest for home while going best, smooth progress to hit the front at final furlong marker but hang badly to his left. Won well with plenty in hand I believe.

Impressive how he won on this ground against the pace bias. Almost certainly better on decent ground. Only 3lb up. Lightly raced, gelded during winter. There’s more to come.

Race Replay

Foreseeable Future
12/04/23 – 2.10 Catterick:

Not ideal low draw in soft conditions here, moved quickly toward the centre, that was costly; going okay for a long time before tiering in the final furlong.

Comeback run can be upgraded. Down to good mark. Ran to higher speed ratings last year and won off current mark. Much better on decent to fast ground over the minimum trip and dangerous in those conditions.

Race Replay

Thornaby Beauty
12/04/23 – 5.20 Catterick:

Settled wide in drear from second widest draw. Looked poised over 2f out and tried to make progress through a gap that suddenly got tight and she got bumped several times by rivals. Kept going well to the line.

Superb run in circumstances. Lightly raced. Ran solid speed rating on the sand in line with her current mark, but possibly even more so open to progress on turf.

Should have a chance to stretch out over 7 furlongs on decent ground, but 6f with cut may prove the ideal trip.

Race Replay

Aihawawi
13/04/23 – 5.05 Newcastle:

Went forward and made most after an initial pedestrian first furlong set a strong pace. Under pressure from over 2f out when headed by strongly travelling rival, but kept going gutsily and finished second best in final furlong behind winner from off the pace.

Nice reappearance, first time expected to run well. Still lightly raced and open to progress over 7f, perhaps also on turf on decent ground.

Race Replay

Bella Kopella
13/04/23 – 5.05 Newcastle:

Early up with pace, before tracking the leader who set a solid pace. Stylish progress from over 2f out to head the leader and move ahead. Travelled like the winner but did a lot in the middle part of the race. Tired badly in the final furlong.

Progressive as a juvenile, and won well over this CD upon seasonal return last month. Looks still open to more improvement, ran to 59 speed rating lto and travelled like a “good thing” here.

The way he fell away in the final furlong was a bit concerning but they went hard and he did a lot to push the pace as well.

Race Replay

Indian Creek
17/04/23 – 3.45 Windsor:

Tracked pace early on before putting more pressure on the pace setter. Did too much in the first half of the race in desperate conditions. Most that finished better races more restrained. Tired from 2f out.

Solid comeback. Prefers better ground. Course and distance specialist. Won off 85 and multiple times off in and around 80, including running to 80 speed rating last season.

Dangerous if he drops below 80 now on better going, ideally at Windsor, but also ran well at Goodwood and Newbury.

Race Replay

Cuban Breeze
17/04/23 – 3.45 Windsor:

Set the early pace, showed excellent early speed. Did way too much in desperate conditions and fell away rapidly from over two furlongs out. Still really positive the early speed he showed.

Ran well lto at Kempton clocking a good speed rating. Clearly in solid form. NTO can be ignored in hot company.

Prefers better ground. Ran well last season of mid 80 marks, including 3x 80+ speed ratings. Mark should be revised and becomes really interesting in right conditions. Has speed for minimum trip and stays 6f.

Race Replay

Aurora Dawn
18/04/23 – 2.00 Lingfield:

Bumped a rival as she hot out of the gate. Quickly relegated to the rear of the field. Going okay turning for home, but not quite a clear run in the home straight until gap opens up properly at the final furlong marker. Finished much the best.

Handicap debut, looks like she wants further, and pedigree says a mile could see her improve. Opening mark wasn’t a giveaway and jury is out whether she is ahead even if she steps up to a mile.

But she ran here to 61 speed rating in less than ideal circumstances. With natural improvement there is every chance she can make up the gap and be better than 68.

Race Replay

Swinging Eddie
18/04/23 – 7.30 Southwell:

Overcame his #9 draw quickly to come across and grab the lead. Travelled well enough for a long time, only headed over 1f out and tired late.

Fine seasonal reappearance. Good form. Down to dangerous mark. Ran well off higher last year, including a 62 speed rating. Flexible ground wise on turf over 7f.

Race Replay

Ventura Flame
19/04/23 – 2.50 Beverley:

Tracked the pace early on before taking up the lead over 2f out. Still ahead entering the final furlong before beaten by strong finisher from off the pace half a furlong from home.

Excellent seasonal reappearance. Down to last winning mark from spring 2022, ran twice 74 speed rating plus, including near career-best 77 last year.

Looks in good form. Not a huge margin for error but dangerous if allowed to dominate.

Race Replay

Mustaffiz
20/04/23 – 7.30 Chelmsford:

Went forward really hard to get the lead no matter what. Raced wide as a consequence for most of the race, finally in front as the field turns for home, but tired badly as a consequence of early exertions.

Bumped into a few well-handicapped ones lately. Still ran huge races. Somewhat in the grip of the handicapper but looks capable to win off 59 in race with less pace to compete.

Return to turf would be interesting for possible improvement. Won over 5f on soft in France.

Race Replay

Nogo’s Dream
20/04/23 – 5.15 Newmarket:

Travelled strongly, smooth progress from 3f out, on the bridle, went on to press the lead approaching the final furlong but tired badly.

Perhaps didn’t get home over the stiff 7f. Still lightly raced. Won a maiden over 5f prior. Opportunities off current 67 rating over easier 7f or drop to 6f looks no issue.

Race Replay

Fortamour
20/04/23 – 3.20 Ripon:

Raced in midfield and made excellent progress to grab the lead from over 2f out in his group. Did well to win the near side group from the wide draw#. ( other 6f race on the card also won decisively by far side)

Fine comeback run. Down to excellent 80 mark now. Won off 80 and last year. Ran to 82 speed rating as well. Ripon specialist.

Race Replay

Jax Edge
21/04/23 – 5.20 Bath:

Travelled well when tracking the pace, but stuck in a pocked from 3f out. Looked dangerous if a gap would ever open. No clear run until late when getting tired.

Good comeback run. This should be solid form for this low grade. She won her final race as a juvenile on handicap debut over 6f, which is strong form.

A 61 mark offers opportunities over sprint trips for the filly. She was arguably unlucky not to finish better here but also should come on for the run.

Race Replay

The Defiant
22/04/23 – 4.40 Brighton:

Keen to get on in the early part but restrained to track fast pace a few lengths off. Got rolling from 3f out, big move, pressed leader from 2f out. Established good lead but eventually caught half a furlong out by winner who was ridden more patiently in the middle part.

Excellent comeback. 1lb above last winning mark but ran three times to speed ratings 70+ last year. Clearly ready to go, ideally over 5f. Can run well downhill. Ascot entry next week intriguing.

Race Replay

Huddle Up
22/04/23 – 3.45 Thirsk:

Crossed over soon after the start from his low draw to the stands’ side rail. Tracked good pace, move from over 2f out, in a head-to-head battle with the leader from 2f out all the way to the line. Just beaten in final 50 yards by horse from off the pace.

Strong comeback run after over 300 days off. First proper performance since moving to the UK but also first time on soft ground.

Cut in the ground seems key. Fall to sexy mark. Has speed for minimum trip and stays 6f.

Race Replay

Ramiro
22/04/23 – 4.15 Thirsk:

Off to an okay start, travelled well enough, but repeatedly a clear run denied from 3f out. Tried to get through an opening inside the final furlong just to be squeezed out again.

Would have gone close. Comeback run. Plenty of issues at the start in the past. Hood seemed to help here. Fallen a long way down in the ratings. Seriously dangerous.

Best over 7 furlongs, but 6 furlongs on proper soft off current low mark a possibility. Looks in superb form judged on this run.

Race Replay

Betting

Monday Selections: 24th October 2022

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Thank The Lord: on Saturday the wait was finally over – after 30 consecutive losers, it was the appropriately named Thank The Lord who gave me the first winner in ages. The 3-year-old gelding won the 5 furlong handicap quite handsomely under the Chelmsford floodlights.

Even better, the 13/2 from the morning looked really big in the evening, given the fact he went off 3/1 fav in the end. I needed that. Badly.

Until this incredibly rotten spell – where it felt like I would even struggle to pick my nose if I’d ever tried (I didn’t; too afraid) – the flat season went quite well, actually. No more. I burned through all the profit. That hurts.

This was the worst losing run I have ever experienced; certainly since betting with some seriousness. The thing is, if I look back at it: the majority of selections I’d do again. Whether that’s a good or a bad thing? The future will tell.

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4.10 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

Oscar Doodle looks ready to romp home here off bottom weight after a surprisingly lenient treatment by the handicapper after his recent course and distance win.

He looked to get home a shade cozily, I felt, after always travelling well while tracking the pace. He was entitled to win off a basement mark of 45 after showing clear signs of improvement for a change to the 10 furlong trip with cheekpieces applied.

He was unlucky the first three attempts over 1o furlongs. The saddle slipped on his first attempt over this CD and blunted a better finish. But from there on he ran three huge races in a row: first at Beverley, and then even more so when desperately unlucky back at Newcastle.

No hard lucky story when last seen, and I reckon he’s got more left in the locker. He can pull hard, as shown in the past, and still was able to finish well. He seemed to settle much better last time out, though – has the penny dropped?

The pace looks solid enough here, he won’t have a problem to find a good posi from #8 draw either.

I am normally not a huge fan of Luke Morris in the saddle, but him taking the ride is a major advantage, especially as he goes down to 8st 5lb to take the ride. His record when doing these low weights on fancied horses is excellent, and he hasn’t ridden so low for weeks.

This is a solid race, not uncompetitive, but Oscar Doodle could still be quite well handicapped and should be able to follow up on his recent maiden victory off this weight.

10pts win – Oscar Doodle @ 9/2

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4.50 Redcar: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

This looks a competitive Apprentice handicap for this class. Half the field is in with a shot. That says Stallone appears to be a silly price, even more so if the ground doesn’t dry out too much until late afternoon.

Over the 6 furlong trip he needs give in the ground to be seen to best affect. Currently it’s still proper soft ground and I hope it doesn’t get much quicker.

Even though Stallone’s very best form comes over 7 furlongs, he is also a winner over the shorter 6 furlongs. He’ s also highly consistent, especially if the word “soft” appears in the going description (9 of those 13 races on proper soft he finished in the money).

He also acts on a faster surface, though, as seen when finishing a strong third place at Pontefract two races back in June this year.

That piece of form worked out incredibly well, and Stallone ran a huge race, confirmed by a 62 speed rating matching his handicap mark on the day. He ran to 56 and 57 speed ratings this season as well, proving consistency.

He couldn’t follow up from Pontefract when finishing eight of ten nine days later at Hamilton. Most like the race came too soon after that big Ponti run. He’s been off since then.

That specific form on fast ground gives me plenty of hope that even if it dries out to good to soft, he can be a seriously competitive runner in this field. Down to a mark off 61 he’s certainly handicapped to go close, having run six times to speed rating of 61+.

Also: Stallone never had the opportunity to race off such low mark on softish ground over 6 furlongs. So, while his win record looks poor over the trip, seen in the context of this, I’ll give him a better chance than the market does.

The elephant in the room is the jockey booking, though. This is an apprentice race and Paige Hopper is the least experienced rider in the field. From I have seen she looks solid enough in the saddle, and her 7lb claim can prove really valuable.

I might be completely wrong, of course, but I feel Stallone could be quite well handicapped, that with the additional weight allowance could mean Paige Hopper just has to make sure to stay in the saddle and not fall off.

That is if he’s fit. Not see since June is a question mark. But the yard is in good form, outperforming expectations. And this will likely be his final race this year. There is no need to hold back or run for a better handicap mark Therefore I am hopeful Stallone is allowed to run on merit.

10ps win – Stalone @ 14/1

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 3rd August 2022

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3.50 Pontefract: Class 4 Handicap, 1m

Twice now in his last three runs Tangled has seriously caught the eye as an unlucky loser. In truth, he doesn’t make life easy for himself when starting slowly, though.

Nonetheless, last time out at Ripon when he was at a disadvantage from his position travelling off the pace, he also didn’t get a clear run at a crucial stage and had to delay his challenge. He didn’t get the clearest of runs at Beverley back in June, either. He finished strongly in the manner of a horse ripe for victory on both occasions.

In between Tangled produced a disappointing performance at Carlisle when well fancied. A run too bad to be true, and I take confidence from his return to form a fortnight ago.

A mile on decent to fast ground looks perfect conditions. I have slight reservation about Pontefract as a suitable venue simple because coming from off the pace isn’t the easiest task here. However, he appears to be so well handicapped in a pretty uncompetitive race, with only one real danger to beat, that at the price I have to side with him here.

10pts win – Tangled @ 7/2

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5.20 Pontefract: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Mobarhin should have a nice chance to get a handy position thanks to the #2 draw. He drops to 6 furlongs on turf for the first time after being gelded since last place finish at Linfield’s polytrack in June.

He seriously caught my eye two back at Newmarket, though. Then over 7 furlongs, he set suicidal fractions from the front and had the field off the bridle from three furlongs out. He tired and was headed 2 furlongs from home but it was noteworthy how well he continued to run to the line even then.

He showed promise earlier the year on the All-Weather, too: a 6f Handicap win over 6f off a 70 mark, he ran to topspeed 74 that day. He followed up with a nose beaten second over the same course and distance the next time.

Off a 73 mark over 6 furlongs on decent ground I feel he offers a bit of upside, especially at a track and a draw to suit.

10pts win – Mobarhin @ 17/2

Betting

Monday Selections: 27th June 2022

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2.15 Pontefract: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

Lady Celia looks ready to roll. She ran a lot better the last two times than the bare form suggests. Two back at Ayr she finished the last three furlongs the fastest. That piece of form looks strong thanks to the winner having franked the form in no uncertain terms in the meantime.

She backed up over 6 furlongs at Hamilton eleven days ago when prominent, up with a strong pace and she just went down fighting in the closing stages in what was a hot contest.

The minimum trip is her preferred distance, though. Off bottom-weight with the added bonus of 5lb claimer Oisin McSweeney in the saddle she is a major chance given that all her wins came from the lower end of the weight scale.

I have some reservations about the fastish ground and hope the showers this morning can take a bit of sting out of it. In any case Ponti’s stiff finish should suit this mare and she looks overpriced given the favourite takes up a lot of space in the market.

Possibly rightly so, but another 6lb hike and a 10-3 weight is no easy task for Elegant Erin.

10pts win – Lady Celia @ 8.5

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8.00 Musselburgh: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Chant For More ran really well over this course and distance in April, finishing much the strongest and was probably a bit unlucky not to get his head in front.

He’s got starting issues as on show the last two times. Although Catterick can be ignored given he also stumbled badly when it looked he may come with a run. He ran an interesting race at Redcar last time, doing a lot in the middle part, proving speed isn’t an issue, more the need for a solid start.

There is a clear danger he messes up at the break today. However, he will come from off the pace in any case. He’s on the same mark as in April, but meets Waverley Star who was 2nd that day , and won in the meantime, at 5lb better handicap terms.

In addition 5lb claimer Ryan Saxton takes the ride for a yard in form and will give Chant For Me every chance to win.

Some unexposed sorts are in the field. Most notably the O’Meara runner. While Hugh Taylor tipped Sheikh Maz Mahood here. There are dangers, ther are risks to Chant For More’s chances.

At the same time two competitive horses are already out. So all in all Chant For More is clearly well handicapped today I feel, and all it needs is first a half decent break and then a clear run.

10pts win – Chant For More @ 4/1

Betting

Monday Selections – 6th June 2022

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6.15 Windsor: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

With the rain arriving at Windsor turning the going soft Firenze Rosa encounters ideal conditions over the minimum trip today. The handicapper has been kind enough to drop her mark to 53 since her latest – I felt – eye catching run over the same CD.

There she travelled pretty well until about the halfway stage. Was then stuck behind horses. Briefly tracking the initial winner but not getting through on the inside. The inexperienced jockey perhaps wasn’t quite brave enough to take a gap on the stands’ side until very late too.

She was 1lb out of the weights, too. Today is an easier race. She won of a mark of 56 in soft here at Windsor about a year ago and she finished the turf season in October with a really strong runner-up effort of a 57 mark running to a 57 TS rating that day.

The #10 draw will give her every chance to get a clear run on the outside I hope, Mollie Phillips claims valuable 5lb and knows the mare from previous rides.

10pts win – Firenze Rosa @ 14.5

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7.30 Pontefract: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

The top three in the market are all vulnerable from their current handicap mark, hence this looks a good opportunity for Van Gerwen to get his head in front as a value alternative.

He was far from disgraced ten days ago over course and distance in a stronger race where he didn’t get an ideal run, only two days after encountering trouble in the closing stages at Ripon that prevented him from potentially winning.

That day he seemed poised for a major move but was repeatedly short of room until nearly the very final moment of the race.

The gives him a real chance having dropped him to a mark of 66. He’s a pound below his latest winning mark with that. He also ran to topspeed 62, 65 and 67 last season. A highly consistent sort, wellbeing confirmed down to a good mark and down to a realistic class.

10pts win – Van Gerwen @ 8.6