Tag Archives: April

Sunday Selections: 28th April 2024

15.30 Weatherby: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

The pace may not be the strongest, and that could help proven front-runner Crownthorpe to outrun his price. Not sure how many want to be truly up there in testing conditions, perhaps the favourite Harswell Duke, who’s got form, is one of those.

Obviously he’s one I like, as he was a recent eyecatcher, but at prices Crownthorpe is a much better bet. This is his third run off a break, and he ran with plenty of credit on sand the two times prior.

Especially his most recent effort was quite likeable, as he was at the front of proceedings for a long time. If fitness has improved, with the return to turf and a track possibly to suit on ground he won’t mind, the veteran could be hard to pass.

The last time seen on turf was about a year ago, at Beverley on good to soft over 8.5f and he was a gallant 2nd off 6lb higher than today, behind a well-handicapped winner.

He’s got a really strong record in these lower grades and this race represents another slight drop in class.

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5.15 Wetherby: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 6f

Flowering caught the eye a number of times over the recent weeks, without winning, though. The filly ran with plenty of credit on the All-Weather, finishing second or third in her five runs on sand this year, prior to a return to turf last time out.

Her four most recent efforts have all caught my attention in no uncertain way, and they suggest the filly, albeit possibly appearing to find ways of losing and being in the grip of the handicapper, is ripe for a ‘W’.

Earlier this week once again she was somewhat unfortunate. At Beverley, down to 10 furlongs, Flowering clearly proved her suitability for soft ground – crucial today.

The filly has developed some issues at the gate, although this time, not advantaged by the #8 gate, she also stumbled, and as a consequence was bound to travel in rear.

Drawn in #3 today, with not too much pace in the race, I hope she can get toward the front sooner rather than later, as she ran her best races from a prominent position.

At Beverley, she made strong progress, going quite well, but had to delay her run when stuck in traffic and the winner was long gone when she got clear passage. She finished best of all in the deep ground, suggesting, the step up to 1m 6f isn’t out of question.

It’s certainly worth a try, a things happen a little less quick, and that could help her. She seems a relentless galloper, and the track will suit this style, as long as she’s in a prominent racing position.

If that’s the case, a mark of 58 could underestimate her in these conditions, what’s only her 3rd run on turf. The hot favourite beat her on the sand, but soft ground, 1m 6f, at Wetherby is a different story, possibly.

Saturday Selections: 13th April 2024

4.00 Aintree: Grand National Handicap Chase, 4m 2f

Backing the winner of the Grand National is one that has eluded me so far. Not sure that’s going to change this year, but I feel two horses are overpriced and offer solid value chances.

I was sweet on Mr Incredible twelve months ago, and only one career run later, he’s nearly as big as back then, when he looked to be in with a solid shout until the saddle slipped after the 24th and Bryan Hayes went off board.

It’s hard to say whether he would have gone close, but I felt he went better than I ever imagined, given he can be a tricky horse. He jumped okay, for the most part, and made good progress when the race started to get serious.

He has been off the track since then, until a reappearance at the Midlands Grand National. That looked a superb warm-up. He travelled well, jumped well, made eye-catching progress and ran home strongly for 2nd.

You’d absolutely bank on a Willie Mullins horse to improve for that run under his belt. I’ve no doubt is going to be primed for a big run in the National.

The reasons to back him in 2023 also hold largely true in 2024. He remains a low-mileage 8-year-old, who showed tons of promise in his last four runs, but has only been seen a handful times over the last two seasons.

He’s 6lb higher this time, but that’s not a worry. He remains open to plenty of progress over these staying trips, especially with ground likely to suit.

I’m surprise to see such big prices on the exchanges available for him. I’d saw him closer to 12s. So, hopefully it’s second time lucky…

But if not, then I hope the Skelton trained mare Galia Des Liteaux can do the job! I’m not too fuzzed about the seemingly poor record for mares in the National. This is a changed race, easier fences, less runners, and I feel this test will suit the mare seriously well.

One has to take a leap of faith first though. She was a desperately disappointing beaten odds-on favourite in a Listed Mares Chase back in February. However, prior to that, she stayed on seriously strongly in a hot Handicap at Warwick, to finish 2nd over 3m 5f.

She’s a grinder, somewhat one paced, but with only 9 starts over fences, she’s lightly raced enough to believe there is more to come over marathon trips.

Galia Des Liteaux improved nicely this year in three of her four starts, only out of the money in the most recent Exeter run. Only once did she race beyond 3m 1f, and that we this seasons strong runner-up performance at Warwick.

There should be plenty of pace in this years National. On the current ground that will ensure a proper test of stamina. That could suit this mare to see her outrun her big price tag.

……

6.00 Yarmouth: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

This looks an ideal opportunity for Berry Clever to get off the mark after a highly promising seasonal reappearance at Southwell recently.

He was significantly hampered soon after the start and couldn’t move closer to the pace as a result, which wasn’t ideal in that race. Nonetheless he travelled well into the straight and made initially quite strong progress against the dreaded inside rail.

One can forgive him for getting tired in the closing stages and you would hope he can improve from having this run under his belt, in any case.

Still winless, but the gelding was somewhat ‘unfortunate’ in a couple of his runs as a juvenile last season. There is enough in his profile to believe he’s capable of winning a race off his current mark. 63 could prove a little bit lenient, now that he also moves up in trip.

On turf, only his second run on grass, and over a mile, which often brings out improvement for Expert Eye offspring, and dropping into a slightly grade too, with De Sousa once again on board, he looks an intriguing horse in an open contest.

The rain is the one question mark I have, if it turns the ground properly soft. It’s that lingering doubt I have whether he’s get home in that case. But the pace may not be overly hot, so it’s worth the risk.

Wednesday Selections: 10th April 2024

4.10 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

The market is dominated by unexposed horses who may or may not be well-handicapped. It makes the pace scenario also potentially muddling.

I feel in this context of the unknown, the rather well-known Johnston filly is underestimated here, given she’s likely to run a solid standard and has excuses for a 0/7 record.

Flowering’s last two runs were seriously eye-catching, in fact. She made the list on her penultimate run over this course and distance when locked in a pace battle and doing way too much way too soon, as the finishing speed % also suggested.

I think she did well to finish as close as she did to a well-handicapped winner who also enjoyed the run of the race. The run confirmed the promise Flowering showed in her previous Handicap runs, in my view.

However, perhaps even stronger was the impression the filly gave last time over this CD once again. In a slowly run race she found herself in the worst position over 3 furlongs out and got badly hampered entering the final bend, which didn’t help her positioning.

She still finished the race strongly, coming home faster than the winner, despite not being fully ridden in the final half furlong.

Left on the same mark, she should be a strong chance dropping back to 0-60 here. Joe Fanning is back on board and given this yard often goes forward, I doubt they’ll make the same mistake again as last time out and utilise the #3 draw.

This could turn into a slowly run race too, and then Flowering will be in prime position, I hope. Whether 12 furlongs prove her best trip remains to be seen. But unless someone else moves forward and sets a testing gallop, which seems unlikely, she should find this a perfect test.

Sunday Selections: 7th April 2024

3.43 Bath: Class 2 Handicap, 5f

A race of this nature looks highly competitive but the ground will only allow a select few to get involved. I wouldn’t fancy a horse on a seasonal return here at all, and rather am looking for race fitness coupled with form on this ground.

With that in mind, I can’t look past Glorious Angel, the 4-year-old filly, who put up a huge performance earlier this week at Pontefract as a runner-up.

It’s tough going back to back in such short space of time, but sprinters can recover quicker, and the Tuer yard is in superb form also.

At Pontefract she had to overcome the widest and as a consequence had to do more in the early part of the race than the eventual winner. She was gutsy all the way to the line, though.

Her two runs prior this year were also noteworthy. She did way too much in a hot Listed contest at Doncaster last month over 6f, and prior on her seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton over 7f, she was still ahead with just over a furlong to go, before running out of fuel.

This Bath test on heavy ground over the minimum trip, may be the absolute ideal scenario to add a 6th career win to her CV.

Even though her win record wouldn’t quite tell the story, Glorious Angel’s career best performances all came over 5 furlongs in deep ground. She stays further, which can be of benefit, given there should be plenty of pace here.

That in itself will be of benefit, given the filly can be keen early on. Her low weight and the assistance of solid 5lb claiming apprentice Joe Leavy can only be of benefit in these conditions.

From a handicap perspective, she is certainly rated to go close, judged on last Octobers career-best effort over 5f in heavy ground at Doncaster, where she finished a gallant 2nd, off 87, achieving an 86 speed rating.

Down to 84, with the 5lb claim, in conditions she enjoys, certainly race fit, hopefully recovered well enough from Tuesday, she’s a massive runner here and I still find value in the current price.

Saturday Selections: 6th April 2024

2.50 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

I’m inclined to give ultra-consistent veteran Reverberation a big chance in this race, despite the overall openness of the contest.

He’s one of the few uncomplicated horses in the field, and also highly likely to enjoy the run of the race from a prominent racing position.

That could be crucial today: not too many want to go forward. Some of the contenders are prone to miss the break. Hence, the #11 draw may not be a big deal, as Reverberation is a solid starter and should be able to have an uninterrupted way toward the front of the pack.

Off his current mark he’s handicapped to go well, no doubt. He bumped into a highly progressive winner last time, but ran in line with those performances he showed all winter that suggested he’s got possibly another win in him off 56, in the right circumstances.

The form of his two wins at Chelmsford over a mile and 10 furlongs back in December and January worked out quite well too, ensuring his credentials have real substance.

The 5lb claim of red-hot Joe Leavy should come in handy. He seems a good judge of pace and ridden Reverberation last time as well.

The main danger I thought could be top-weight Lucidity. The light-raced filly could have too much class in this grade, if ready to go on her seasonal reappearance. But the market suggests otherwise, for the now at least, and she’s one to keep an eye on for another day.

Favourite Mc’Ted comes here in good form. He likes this course and distance but he’s handicapped to he’s best form under a 5lb now. Given he can be moody at the start, it’s a risky proposition.

Twilight Guest sees money all morning and is competitive in this grade. 0-17 tells a story, though, and he tends to be seriously keen if the pace is slow.

That always brings me back to Reverberation. The fact he drops ever so slightly down in grade, with a good pace scenario of a fair mark gives him a good chance to score today.

Tuesday Selections: 2nd April 2024

4.15 Pontefract: Class 5 Handicap

There isn’t much substance in this field beyond the short-priced favourite. Bustaam looks progressive and may defy a 10lb higher mark for an easy victory at Doncaster.

On the other hand he hasn’t achieved a good speed rating on turf (yet) in four runs and is prone to miss the kick, not ideal at Pontefract, especially in a possibly slowly run race.

Top-weight Lord Melbourne makes some appeal on his handicap debut, though. Back to the venue where he was seen to best effect last year.

It was a career-best performance here at Pontefract when runner-up behind a subsequent listed winner. He handled softish ground just fine and was simply outstayed over 12 furlongs. However he showed a nice change of gear from 4 furlongs out.

He cost a bit of money as a yearling and is quite well bred, naturally then. Gelded just before his debut run, though, he seems a somewhat tricky character, as the application of cheek-pieces showed in his final runs in 2023.

Head gear is off today, a question mark, but you hope with natural improvement he could be better than his opening mark of 77, given the CP’s didn’t do anything for him.

There is certainly enough substance in his performances, if you strike out his penultimate run at Wolverhampton when injured during the race.

He travelled quite well when last seen at Wolverhampton in December, but was short of room at a crucial stage around the home bend and then didn’t see out the trip, I believe.

A return to turf should be a positive. His two runs where his best, so far, including the aforementioned Ponti run. 10 furlongs could prove an ideal trip, judged by his runs over 1m 4f where he travelled nicely, was also able to change gear but didn’t get home.

The heavy ground is a question mark. He handled good to soft and on pedigree there is plenty of soft ground form, which gives hope. He comes into this 0-75 race as a 77 rated individual. If he can put it all together the gelding could prove way too classy, especially if he gets it easy in front.

This is Harry Davies’ only ride today, and he goes well for this yard, which does well when it sends horses to the front. I hope that’s the game plan today with not much other pace to compete with.

The 4-year-old seems on the drift this morning in the betting. That’s a risk. But I hope he’s not just here for a public workout.

Thursday Selections: 4th May 2023

One third of 2023 is over. It went fast. Thankfully, after a rough start, with losing months in January and February, March and April got me back on track.

April finished with another winner last Thursday – I watched Pillar Of Hope on my small mobile screen while boarding for a plane to Germany to stay on strongly to win his Beverly race. He got home in the nick of time, literally.

He made it winner #7 for April. 235 points profit, from 23 selections in April. Only last November was a more profitable month in the last three years.

Annual P/L makes it 300pts up for the year now from 101 selections.

A more extensive overview of all selections can be found as always here (Betting Stats & P/L tab in menu).

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1.30 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Far From A Ruby has been nicely progressing with each run since her return in early February where she entered the list of eyecatchers.

That day over 6 furlongs, a trip too sharp, she showed good early speed and enthusiasm, which was exactly what I hoped to see. She followed up with another solid run subsequently, although still seemingly short of full fitness.

She’s approaching peak soon as evident three weeks ago at Southwell when she tracked the pace and was right there until fading back to 4th place, 2 lengths beaten.

She now appears to be seriously well-handicapped in this type of low-level apprentice handicap as she goes up in trip. Turf and fast ground won’t be an issue.

Though, down to a mark of 54 offers a huge opportunity. She ran to a 58 speed rating at Ayr over 7 furlongs back in September. She ran to a 50 speed rating when last seen, when not fully tuned up.

I have full faith that she’s still as good as last autumn, and won’t have an issue making up the pounds needed to reach the same level of performance. She stays a mile, has a 3-1-2 record over this course and distance and hasn’t much to fear in this poor field.

10pts win – Far From A Ruby @ 3/1

……

5.00 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

Plenty of unexposed horses and you never quite know what you get. However, I’m quite hopeful Totnes can be better than her current 71 rating now that she moves up in trip.

Last time out, given she was an odds-on shot, she was probably disappointing the way she finished in 5th, especially as she travelled very strongly in rear of the field, made good progress from 3f out and loomed large entering the home straight.

Her challenge petered out from over 1f out as she hang badly to her left, which is a concern, as well as that she can be keen in the early stages.

I’m prepared to excuse the run because she was ultra-impressive weeks earlier over the same C&D, winning in the manner of a talented filly on only her second career run. Something must have bothered her a few weeks ago – whatever it was, I hope it’s fixed now.

Her pedigree points to stamina and a good chance that there’s more improvement to come as she moved beyond 7 furlongs. Ideally i would love to see her at a stiffer track, but the fact she travelles well and could have a class edge against this opposition makes me cautiously confident.

I don’t think many of her rivals have a lot of scope, while she offers plenty of upside. Totnes looks like a filly capable to progress beyond marks in the 70s.

10pts win – Totnes @ 5/2

………

8.15 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Compere looks to have found a nice chance to score. Even though 13 go to post, not many seem to be here to win. Hence I’m not worried about the #6 draw at all, which is good enough to get easily to the front in a race with not much pace to compete against.

The gelding is still pretty lightly raced but took his form to the next level when last seen over this course and distance at Chelmsford over a mile.

He endured an awkward start, heavily bumped a rival before then finding himself in front, overcoming the issues out of the gate, eventually settled in third.

He kicked on nicely against inside rail approaching the home straight; hit the front 1f out, and kept going strongly. But he had no chance with winner from off the pace, eventually.

This is strong form. The winner was back-to-back winner; the third won last time out and finished third subsequently. The 4th won next time out.

Compere was a 50/1 shot, so clearly outran his price tag there. He now drops in class, down to 0-55, and the fact that solid but ultimately exposed Thomas Equinas heads the betting says all about the strengths in depth of this field.

The handicapper was kind to Compere, as he left him on the same 56 rating. Even though. I imagine the gelding will eventually prove better over 10 furlongs, he’s shown enough speed for the mile and should find this easier, in order to run out a strong maiden victory.

10pts win – Compere @ 6/1

Thursday Selections: 27th April 2023

2.20 Beverley: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

Pretty quick turnaround for Ventura Flame, who ran about a week ago over this course and distance.

It was huge performance, and that’s a question mark whether he can back it up so quickly. On the other hand, it’s only his second run this year and he looks in great form.

When last seen he tracked the pace early on before taking up the lead over 2f out. Still ahead entering the final furlong before he was beaten by a strong finisher from off the pace half a furlong from home.

He’s down to last winning mark from spring 2022, since then ran twice 74 speed rating plus, including near career-best 77 last year and drops into an easier grade here.

There doesn’t seem too much other pace to compete against, hence the #7 won’t be an issue. That aside, there doesn’t seem to be any real danger in this field either. He should be too good off a his74 mark.

10pts win Ventura Flame @ 3/1

……..

4.00 Beverley: Class 4 Handicap, 8.5f

This looks a wide open contest but without a clear and obvious favourite. Even though I would prefer a slightly longer trip for him, I still think it’s worth to back Pillar Of Hope in this field.

For a 5-year-old he’s quite lightly raced and the reason for that might be what appears to be his rather light frame. Perhaps that’s the reason why he performed well upon his return off a break in the past.

Indeed, in early March, after 110 days away from the track, he ran pretty well when 5th at Newcastle in a pretty strong race.

He was alertly away, disputed the lead, until he came under pressure from 2 furlongs out. He was quickly going backwards, but eventually kept on rather strongly up the stiff finish.

Beverley isn’t that stiff. but the slightly longer trip, up the hill to the line, on possibly rain softened ground with solid pace expected, should make this enough a test of stamina.

He achieve a career-best last September at Redcar, when he ran to 86 speed rating and winning off 82. Now 2lb lower, he could have enough in hand against this opposition even over this trip.

Rain is forecasted for late afternoon. The earlier arrives the better, to ensure there remains some of that good to soft before off time. Also the fact that he had ample time to recover from the recent outing gives hope.

10pts win – Pillar Of Hope @ 5/1

Wednesday Selections: 26th April 2023

Dog Fox done the job on Tuesday. We knew he’s a tricky sort and irrespective of the hood he pulled hard in the early stages; no problem, though – he was too well handicapped on his debut, as hoped.

He was well backed, went off 3/1 (backed at 5s). The 6th winner in April. It’s unlikely I’ll break my “career-best” of nine winners in a single months. Still, from only 20 selections, a 30% strike rate, that’s unusually high for me…. so, waiting for it come crashing down.

Bridge Water was disappointing, but they ran so slow, she never stood a real chance. Dark Design was friendless in the market and never landed a blow.

…….

1.50 Catterick: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

I can see how Golden Gal turns out to become the gamble of the race here with her return fresh from a wind op, having strong course and distance form.

But I do like my recent form, and as such, one of the most unfortunate horses without a “W” to his name this year is Sir Benedict. This lad is SO ready, I can see a scenario where he just runs way with this in the final furlong.

But I also can clearly envision a scenario where he runs on late for 4th place. Because he’s a tricky sort and there’s a reason why he’s yet to win in 2023, despite knocking on the door and having dropped to a rating that is more than realistic.

In saying that, the drop to the minimum trip should suit in theory, as long as it doesn’t dry out completely, and he doesn’t mess up at the gate, as he can do.

Ignore his latest run. 6f, a muddling pace and no cover never gave him any chance. He pulled like a train, and in that context he still caught the eye the way he travelled to challenge for the lead from three furlongs out, before running out off steam.

Look no further than the two runs prior, though. Two back at Newcastle, stuck behind a wall of horses, he finished best, doing so nearly on hard held.

And prior to this at Wolverhampton, again not enjoying a clear run, he dipped below 11s in the penultimate furlong and finished like a train.

What gives me plenty of hope is: 1) a low draw – in theory he should be able to track the pace; 2) the hot pace, which is to suit him, especially if he can use the inside lane, safe ground and use the extra bit of stamina he possesses.

The cut in the ground is to his advantage as well, and now down to a mark of 59 he’s simply looks irresistibly well-handicapped, given he ran to a 54 speed rating easily last month and 3x to 59 plus within the last twelve months.

10pts win – Sire Benedict @ 5/1

Tuesday Selections: 25th April 2023

Big Bard produced a great finish to run out an easy win by about 4 lengths today. The 5th winner in April.

He simply was so well handicapped with the 7lb claim of excellent Alec Voikhansky in the saddle, who gave the gelding a cool, patient ride: waiting for the gap to open on the inside, before he stayed on strongly in the final furlong.

I was deliberating back and forth last night because of the big field and the slight questions over the likely proper soft ground. But in the end the prevailing thought was the gelding is too well handicapped to let go. A correct decision in the end.

4.25 Yarmouth: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f

I was sweet on Dog Fox earlier this month before he was withdrawn after being upset in the stalls. There’s a concern over his behaviour here as well, of course.

But that aside, the same reasons as back then apply here too, why I’m prepared to back him again. For one, this isn’t a strong race on paper. Not many appear to have a large amount of scope to outrun their current handicap marks.

Dog Fox is also an intriguing horse: one I flagged up in my 3-year-old handicappers to follow list and feel this represents a superb opportunity to get off the mark for him.

This confidence may seem misplaced given Dog Fox showed nothing in three runs as a juvenile. However, those runs came over trips that were clearly on the sharp side.

He’s bred to enjoy middle-distance trips and is expected to improve dramatically in handicap company going up in trip. The majority of his dam’s offspring performs solid once upped to 10 furlongs, as his sire Cityscape has a 10.1 stamina index to offer.

An opening mark of 62 looks stiff judged purely on juvenile form, but could underestimate him judged on potential improvement for trip and age.

The soft ground won’t be an issue I reckon. The sire and dam enjoyed cut in the ground during their respective racing careers. The application of a hood may help to calm him.

10pts win – Dog Fox @ 4/1

…….

6.25 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

There’s no question Aihawawi is a great chance in this race and was a huge eyecatcher last time out. Off the same mark here, with the #3 draw to attack the race from, he could be hard to beat.

On the other hand, he was probably beaten for speed at Newcastle, and stayed on up the stiff finish in the closing stages. Does the sharper, less stiff Wolverhampton suit?

At 6/5 I’m not prepared to find out and rather take the proverbial gamble on another eyecatcher, that is Bridge Water. I say gamble because there’s every chance the filly is twice the price tomorrow afternoon.

But I make an as much as possible informed decision and risk assessment that says, all I can judge right now in terms of information in front of me, says she’s too big a price in this field. I have her much, much shorter.

She caught the eye two back at Kempton. There she was restrained from the widest draw and and trailed the field, nicely settled. She travelled strongly and made strong progress from 3f out to eventually finish much the best. She was simply poorly positioned, otherwise she could have won that day.

The form itself isn’t strong, but the way she finished was noteworthy and in line with her prior run that warranted an upgrade too.

Over 6f she probably doesn’t have the speed to win, I feel. But she could improve for the step up to 7f. She’s by Starspangledbanner with a7.0f stamina index, out of an unraced Le Havre mare.

She also has a lowly 49 mark. The return to the All-Weather is a plus, as she didn’t enjoy soft ground when last seen.

10pts win – Bridge Water @ 10/1

…….

9.00 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Dark Design ran a huge race in defeat when last seen at Lingfield. He moved quickly forward from his wide draw to slot in right behind the pace setter, but had to do a lot to get there just before the first turn.

He tracked a very strong winner racing in second place, travelled well approaching the home turn. He didn’t have the pace to match from 1.5 out and tired in the final furlong. A fine form, also given the fact he covered about a lengths more than others in front of him that day.

He ran petty well in recent weeks and months, including achieving a 50 speed rating here as well s a 56 one at Chelmsford in January. He’s clearly in strong form and now has been given a chance by the handicapper.

Dropped 2lb to a mark of 55, with a good draw and a CD that may suit, he’s well weighted. He Won off 55 and 57 last season and should enjoy a strong pace to track here which should bring his extra bit of stamina to the fore in the closing stages.

10pts win – Dark Design 5/1