Tag Archives: Luke Morris

Wednesday Selections: August, 22nd 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

2.50 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Impart has slipped dramatically in the weights having one last year of an 18lb higher mark. He has ran well a handful of times, though. Most notably in June over course and distance off 5lb higher than his now career lowest rating.

That form looks rock solid and a similar showing today would see Impart go really close. His latest run is concerning, though. Twelve days ago he was here at Brighton a long way beaten over 5.5f – his worst performance in his last six outings.

This is not a particularly strong contest today, on the other hand. Returning to 6f should help while the going isn’t an issue.

Selection:
10pts win – Impart @ 7/2 MB

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5.10 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Despite being on a losing streak of 13 consecutive runs, judged by two of his three runs this year Red Gunner is on a winnable mark right now. He was unlucky not to get closer than third last time at Lingfield and the handicapper has given him a big chance leaving the mark untouched.

He was slowly into stride that day, then travelled powerfully, but ultimately didn’t get the breaks when needed and got going on the outside to late. Once steered into the clear, Red Gunner thundered home from the back of the field.

This, as well as his less than two lengths beaten 5th at Kempton on his seasonal reappearance as well as debut for the Loughnane yard appears to be competitive form that is strong enough to see him as a major runner here today.

Selection:
10pts win – Red Gunner @ 7/2 PP

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8.45 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Treacherous has been twice a CD winner this summer already. He’s been slightly regressive in his next three starts. However, he travelled supremely well last time out at Sandown despite pulling hard through the first half of the race, looking the likely winner, just to tire in inside the final furlong.

I still rate it a big performance and a return to Kempton should see him in better light. He achieved a TS of 71 when winning here in June, so only 2lb higher, there is still a possibility, particularly in this grade, that he can find a bit more as it also is still only his eight career start on the All-Weather, of which he won three and placed in another one.

It’s noteworthy that jockey Pat Cosgrave makes the journey to Kempton for this single ride. He’s also steered Treacherous already to success in the past.

Selection:
10pts win – Treacherous @ 6/1 Sky

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Champions Jockey Luke Morris?

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Another week older…. in fact another year older!!! It’s my birthday and I could do well with a birthday present. Why?

Because last week started so exceptionally well with three winners on the bounce but from from mid-week on turned into nothing but disappointment, agony and despair. A real nightmare, we can call it. And that’s only the horses. Let me not get started on the soccer….

I’ve really lost some money in those last four days or so. But always look on the bright side of life, eh? I try, I really try hard. But when you advance beyond a certain age, when you are very much entitled to attend the Over 30’s discos, when you…. ah let’s leave it there.

Thankfully there is enough racing to get stuck into and to forget about all the moaning and groaning. Age is just a number.

Jockeys  Championship

The British Flat Jockeys Championship has never really caught my imagination, I have to admit. Although I firmly believe it has its place in the racing season (there was an interesting discussion on its value on yesterdays ATR Sunday Forum – check it out). Whether the current format is the right one is a different matter.

Nonetheless I like the fact that it rewards the hard working jockey, the one who goes up and down the country, who’s sacrificing for a slim chance of a winner in the class 6 Handicap for three year old’s on a dreary Wednesday night at Wolverhampton.

Now, in recent weeks the Jockeys Championship moved a bit into focus because it developed into an intriguing head-to-head battle between defending champion Silvestre De Sousa and Jim Crowley, the latter one only recently emerging as a serious contender.

I ran the numbers and dug through the stats and come to the conclusion that Crowley does  have the edge – not only on the actual numbers of winners (he’s leading by 2) – but basically every other significant metric. So it’s no surprise to see him being installed as the odds-on favourite to wrestle the title off De Sousa.

As a betting man, though, I’m always on the hunt for value. And I just couldn’t get my head around when I saw last years All-Weather Champion Luke Morris readily available at a whopping 50/1! Are you serious?

Yes, Morris is 15 winners behind Crowley at the moment – but Crowley himself trailed De Sousa by a more or less similar margin not too long ago either. So it’s not impossible to make it up.

Now, it’s a long-shot, no doubt. Crowley gets great support, is going all out…. but you know what? So is Luke Morris! He’s proven it all the years that he’s a tremendously hard working jockey, usually right up there with the most number of rides of any jockey in the country. He also has a proven pedigree of being able to sustain the pressure in a title race, given he is the reigning All-Weather Champion jockey.

With the assistance of some good trainers, mainly Mark Prescott, I feel Luke Morris has enough ammunition to grind his way closer and closer into contention. There is still enough time on the clock.

Interestingly the difference between Morris and Crowley over the last 50 rides is a mere 4 winners – quite close, isn’t it? Well, yes and no. Crowley has a higher strike rate and is only really getting into full swing right now, so the gap might widen inevitably. But then, Morris has shown in the past that once he sets his signs on a jockeys title, he can really dig deep and get his hands on an awful lot of winning rides too.

It remains a long-shot, and let’s not rule out Silvestre De Sousa at all, nor James Doyle – though he said he’s not all in -, Adam Kirby or Oisin Murphy. But it’s the 50/1 price tag for Luke Morris that really looks tremendously over the top.

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Monday Selections:

2.35 Chepstow: Cocoa Beach @ 10/1 Ladbrokes
4.15 Chepstow: Work @ 12/1 Williahm Hill

Stat of the Day – Thursday 25th August 2016

Wet Dundalk Polytrack

33.33 – the percentage of winners trainer James Tate had in lower grade handicaps at Wolverhampton this year!

In fact more than one half of all his starters have been placed in 2016; with the addition of Luke Morris in the saddle the success rate increases even more.

This is not a new trend, given that Tate has always been smart in identifying the right type of horse to exploit those uncompetitive races on the All-Weather during the summer months when there is so much racing going on elsewhere.

He’s doing this mainly with three year old’s in races against older horses where during the summer months the weight for age allowance provides its most substantial advantage for the younger horse against older, often exposed individuals.

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Thursday Selections:

Three days into the week and three winners richer! It’s been quite a week so far, so long may it last. Three selections today; most interesting James Tate’s runner in the penultimate race at Wolverhampton.

2.30 Musselburgh: Lil’s Affair @ 9/1 Bet365
6.45 Wolverhampton: Control Centre @ 16/1 Coral
8.45 Wolverhampton: Rocket Power @ 4/1 Bet365