3.45 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 7f
See You remains a maiden after 13 starts so not too much confidence can be placed in the gelding. But the fact he’s got the perfect draw to replicate tactics from his most recent run is interesting.
Third at Beverly last months attempting to make all and setting a frantic pace under an inexperienced rider, he was caught late. Dropping down to 7f again should suit. A 2lb hike in the mark remains a dangerous mark in my mind.
A repeat of that type of performance may well be enough to win this race today. Here’s hoping David Allan makes use of the good draw, indeed.
10pts win – See You @ 9/1 PP
5.45 Kempton: Class 7 Handicap, 5f
The lowest grade and a truly shocking race. Nonetheless, the still lightly raced Broughton Excels offers some promise for improvement. He showed glimpses of ability when fifth on his seasonal- and new yard debut last month at Wolverhampton when not ideally placed at the back of the field.
This late may foal should improve with time, hopefully – so dropping into a poor race stripping fitter for his latest run is interesting.
Drawn perfectly for the 5f trip at Kempton, Broughton Excels has a big chance of a career lowest mark, granted he can get the break right, which as been an issue in the past.
10pts win – Broughton Excels @ 13/2 MB
4.05 Pontefract: Class 3 Handicap, 1m
The betting tells the tale: this is incredibly competitive. So it surprises that there is a 6/4 favourite – a wrong one, in my mind. I feel top weight Completion is clearly a cut above the rest on everything form wise we know for now.
That can change, of course, but Completion’s own progress may not yet come to a halt. He’s been disappointing in his last two starts on naked form, however there are fair excuses for it. 10f seemed a step too far last time out and the Heritage Stakes at Royal Ascot a super tough handicap where defeat isn’t a disgrace.
Before that, though, Completion won in excellent style on his turf debut at Redcar and was a formidable runner-up in an ultra competitive Haydock Handicap. Those forms work out really well and the fact he ran to TS ratings of 84 and 92 this year already suggest he is up to his current handicap mark.
Conditions should suit today, he’s got a nice draw and is likely to be positioned not too far off the pace. With top pilot Daniel Tudhope in the saddle Completion has a major chance to find back to the winning ways today.
10pts win – Completion @ 7/2 MB
6.10 Chepstow: Class 5 Handicap, 1m
The two market leaders seem head and shoulders above the rest of the field, however there’s real concern over the trip for Air Of York, while it remains to be seem whether Nazzaa has the speed on fast ground dropping to a mile.
That means it could be worth to side with one of the other three. Four year old Alqalsar offers the most upside theoretically, but showed nothing this year after a promising campaign last season and his attitude has to be questioned.
The two veterans in the field, Living Leader and Peak Storm are of high interest to me, given their featherweight. Living Leader with Hollie Doyle in the saddle is by far the more intriguing individual having some solid form to his name while getting a big chance by the handicapper.
Peak Storm on the other hand hasn’t ran a good race in nearly two years. That says, he he has quite a good record over this trip at this track and dropped so far in the weights that if there’s still any sort of appetite for racing left he could be incredibly dangerously weighted now.
He drops back to a mile here at Chepstow, into a race he won back in 2015. The betting suggests there is zero expectations, but the booking of promising apprentice Andre Beslin, who claims 7lb, makes Peak Storm an interesting contender today.
10pts win – Peak Storm @ 40/1 PP