3.30 Longchamp: Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains, 1m
Obviously Henry Longfellow is the one I’m most interested in. One of my horses to follow this year (hardly an original thought, to be fair), he’s got the looks of a potential superstar.
Drawn in #6 the son of Dubawi won’t have many excuses today and I hope he just runs away with it. At the price, it’s hard to justify a bet, in a deep race, though.
Purely from a value perspective I must back Dancing Gemini, who will enjoy a low draw, a prominent racing position and has shown a significant amount of talent as a juvenile as well.
Reportedly having wintered well, connections were deliberate routing their star colt to Longchamp as opposed to Newmarket. Perhaps a wise move, given he should enjoy this test, with the draw and the way the race may pan out a lot better.
The son of Camelot is quite experienced already. Five runs, two wins and he improved significantly for his fist two career runs as well as racing more forward.
He hinted no uncertain amount of talent when sprinting away at Newbury with a first maiden success in August, before romping home in the Scotsman Stakes.
Perhaps committing too early in the Futurity Stakes, Dancing Gemini ran still with plenty of credit in a hot renewal back in October last year.
He’s shown to handle juice in the ground – important today. The step up in trip is sure to suit, given his pedigree, by Camelot and out of a daughter of Australia.
Given this pedigree, it seems noteworthy the tactical speed he showed last year. His talent is underpinned by a fine 73 debut speed rating in June and a strong 99 speed rating when he won at Doncaster.
The exchange prices are way over the top in my view, so I’m happy to back him against the favourite.
10pts win – Dancing Gemini @ 18/1
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4.17 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f
With the pace chart somewhat muddling, I feel it can be worth to side with proven and happy front-runner Jean Baptiste, who ran incredibly well from the front a fortnight ago at Ayr to finish a gallant 2nd.
No certainty that he can confirm that strong performance, but back on the sand where some of his best career efforts came over the years, especially this CD (regardless of what the naked record says, on speed ratings he ran really well in higher grades here).
Two pounds up and he loses the valuable claim of Jonny Peate today, compared to Ayr, that’s not ideal. But still 3lb below his last winning mark on turf, and the same 79 rating as when an excellent second two years ago over this course and distance.
Jean Baptiste is value at current prices in my book, well capable to outrun the odds in an open race that lacks quality. He’s drifting, though, which isn’t a good sign for this type of horse, to be fair.
10pts win – Jean Baptiste @ 11.5/1
…….
3.07 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
Favourite Cross The Tracks looks well drawn but not sure why he’s so short, as the drop in trip doesn’t look ideal and he’s 8lb worth off in the weights than last time.
Yes, that came in a hot class 2 Handicap, so he’s shown a bit of class. But not on speed ratings yet. At that price I’m happy to take him on.
Mr Wonderful and Oakland Princess look intriguing opposition here. If race fit, the Amo Racing gelding could prove better than a 77 rating on his handicap debut.
However, I’m most intrigued by the filly, Oakland Princess, who can race here off a feather weight and should have plenty more to offer.
I felt it was significant that she didn’t take up her entry at Nottingham yesterday, in a race I thought she had a strong chance. Instead she comes here.
The filly ran with plenty of credit on her Handicap debut over this course and distance earlier this month. But she didn’t get a clean run through, was badly stopped in her progress at 1.5f from home, but got going again and finished well under hands and heels.
She appeared still raw in the early stages of the race. With the added experience, and hopefully a clear run today, she’s in with a shot. The draw isn’t ideal, away from the early pace, but Sam James shouldn’t have too much trouble to get across quickly to track the lead.
10pts win – Oakland Princess @ 8/1
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5.27 Newcastle: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f
It seems worth to take a chance on Curran in an open race back over the course and distance of his very first career win.
You can forgive his seasonal reappearance at Doncaster in deep ground where he made way too much too soon in any case, in a what was a competitive Handicap, too.
This is easier. There’s competition for the lead from the favourite, but that may well suit, in fact, as Curran can track the pace, as he did when he won twice last year.
Todays run will also be his second after having been gelded over the winter. You’d hope to see a significantly improved performance compared to Doncaster.
You can’t ignore the credentials of the Karl Burke trained favourite Fallen Angel. The daughter of Too Darn Hot improved with every run last season, culminating in an impressive Moyglare success.
That form offers an excellent springboard for more success this year. She’s likely to appreciate the step up to a mile and seems drawn well, near enough to where the pace is likely to develop. She’s quite versatile, can move forward or track the pace.
There’s so much to like and she’s probably the right favourite. If anything, the price is nothing more than fair, given so many unknowns in a race such the 1000 Guineas.
Also there’s plenty of pace in this race. We have seen 24h ago how that can end for well-fancied horses. She may burn too much fuel early on, is a danger I can foresee.
Porta Fortuna possibly posts the strongest juvenile performance, though, certainly on speed ratings, when winning the Cheveley Park Stakes. She continued her progress with a gallant 2nd at Santa Anita.
The question I have is whether she really is as good over a mile as a 3-year-old as she was over 6 furlongs last season. The draw doesn’t do her any favour, the way the race may pan out. Intriguing contender, but not at this price.
I’m intrigued also by what William Buick does on Dance Sequence, especially as she can miss the kick. He may have to use the filly early on to get into a good position as otherwise, also drawn on the wing, somewhat away from the pace, may be detrimental.
She ran well in he Nell Gwyn and I’d fancy her to turn the form around with Pretty Crystal over the new trip. Whether that’s good enough to land a Guineas remains to be seen.
The winner that day, Pretty Crystal, has yet to run a serious speed rating in six career runs. I have my doubts that she can improve to the level normally required to win a Guineas.
French raider Ramatuelle was ultra-impressive winning the Robert Papin last July. He’s race fit after a good 2nd at Deauville last month. He came back for more after travelling well and burning a lot of energy in the first half of a slowly run race. The mile is a question mark, though.
Star Style for the Hannon team was brilliant on his debut a few weeks ago, posting a 84 speed rating. She’s one to keep an eye on, for all that a mile in this grade, with competition for the lead, may be beyond her stamina reserves.
Ylang Ylang was progressive last year and her course and distance Group 1 Fillies’ Mile win is as good as it gets in this field. I’m slightly worried about the drying ground, as she seemed to show her best with juice in the ground.
See The Fire showed promise as a juvenile and should do even better this year. She’s bred to stay beyond a mile, but may appreciate the fast pace today as well as the better ground.
Her tendency to hang in the closing stages certainly cost her an unbeaten record as a 2-year-old, I reckon. With that in mind her 3rd in the Fillies’ Mile warrants an upgrade.
She was still so raw and unfinished last season. Clearly there’s more to come, given her pedigree. She still showed an ability to travel and quicken. Both should be of use today.
The draw isn’t ideal. Out on the wing, Oisin Murphy will have to make an early decision, whether to sit back and suffer potentially in traffic late, or whether to move forward and across to get closer to the lead that should develop toward the centre.
That’s a risk I’m prepared to take. See The Fire seems still a bit overpriced. If she can run straight she could well be the best filly in the race, today and long-term.
10pts win – See The Fire @ 10/1
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4.23 Hamilton: Class 5 Handicap, 8.5f
Shine On Brendan must have a serious chance in this race, Money arrived throughout the morning, which I take as a positive sign, and he’s still perhaps a point or a bit more even too big, if on a going day.
He loves it here, has a positive 8-3-2 record over this course and distance and was a fine second in this very race twelve months ago off a 2lb lower mark.
Two solid comeback runs should put him spot on. From a wide draw he ran with plenty of credit a fortnight ago at Musselburgh. The soft ground will certainly suit today.
That last performance gave a fair indication that Shine On Brendan may not be too far of the level of form the gelding showed in 2023, where he ran to 64 and 69 speed ratings, won off 68 and got close off 70.
The 7-year-old has shown in the past that he can move forward. Potentially a big advantage today, in a race with not too much competition for the lead expected.
Mums Tipple impressed in two of his three runs this year on the sand and suggested the way he finished those races that he retains plenty of talent as a now 7-year-old gelding.
He’s not the most prolific winner these days, but he could be quite well handicapped in the context of the race, with fitness most likely assured and a handicap mark that may underestimate him.
He drops back to 6 furlongs, which should suit. His best performances have come over this trip and any rain won’t be a hindrance to his chances at all. The #1 gate is a question mark – but I hope Ryan Moore in the saddle will make some good decisions early on in a race with not too much pace.
In any case, I must go back to his three runs in 2024, with the most recent one at Kempton catching the eye in no uncertain terms, when runner-up behind smart Mount Athos.
He travelled in rear and wasn’t advantaged by a slow pace, being poorly positioned, compared to the winner, who enjoyed an easy race from the front. Mums Tipple made eyecatching progress from over 3f out as he finished the final three furlongs fastest as well to be denied by a head in the end.
He pulled too hard in a slowly run race over 7f prior at Wolverhampton but was seriously unfortunate when held up from the widest draw and not getting in clear run while hard held on his seasonal reappearance at Lingfield.
Now a return to turf, off a 97 handicap mark, that offers opportunities. He was competitive off 100 last summer in some hot races and still ran to a 94 speed rating a Ascot.
Key will be the start, though: if slowly away, as he can be, and held up, in a race that may not be ran at a furious pace, it’s likely game over there and then. But you trust Ryan Moore to read the pace chart, so I’m hopeful he’ll navigate Mums Tipple into a solid position to give the gelding every chance.
10pts win – Mums Tipple @ 10/1
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2.05 Goodwood: Listed Fillies’ Stakes, 1m
Choisya was the one to take out from the Snowdrop Stakes last month, where she got desperately close against the run of the race.
Caught wide throughout, given the way the race panned out in front of her, she made superb progress from halfway through the race, always turning widest, and it was her class that put her into a challenging position with two furlongs to go.
In a battle to the line she had to pay tribute to those earlier exertions eventually, still only beaten by a head, and also finishing the closing stages with the fastest sectionals.
The filly isn’t low mileage compared to some other rivals today. But she was progressive last season, has shown versatility if it comes to ground and racing position, and her last three efforts, a close second at Newmarket in October, and two subsequent All-Weather efforts, give the impression there’s still more to come.
She handles the soft ground and shouldn’t be too far away from likely pace setter Orchid Bloom. This filly sets the standard on speed ratings and looks rock solid, if ready to go off a break.
At given prices, I favour Choisya, though. She hasn’t fully convinced on speed ratings yet, but I firmly believe she’s got the ability to run a big one, in the right conditions – hopefully today.
10pts win – Choisya @ 11/2
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3.35 Newmarket: Group 1 2000 Guineas, 1m
Can you oppose City Of Troy? if you believe the hype that surrounds the Aiden O’Brien trained colt, you absolutely can not.
On pure numbers COT is clearly the one to beat: unbeaten as a juvenile, a fine 77 speed rating on debut, followed by two 100+ performances, to land the Superlative and Dewhurst Stakes.
That’s the sign of a classy individual, although, not of the “best ever”… yet. He still has to improve going into his classic campaign, and must prove that he has trained on. There’re some question marks looming of Justify offspring in this regard.
The other question: is there anything in this field good enough to beat him? Ten rivals go head to head with City Of Troy.
Haatem won the Craven Stakes showing a lovely attitude last month. His race fitness must count for something and he achieved a decent enough speed rating to give the performance merit. He’s certainly not low mileage, though, and one has to wonder how much more improvement is left.
Unbeaten Ghostwriter won the Royal Lodge in good style when last seen and is one the more likely candidates to improve to the level required to land a Guineas.
He’s achieved two mid-90 speed ratings last year. That’s a solid platform to head into this year, although also, purely judged on that form, still requires a significant step up.
Rosallion, for one, appears the main challenger for City Of Try, if the betting is an accurate reflection. Already a Group 1 winner, he stayed on well to win the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere last October. However, a son of Blue Point stretching out to a mile on this level, I have issues to imagine. Never say never, though.
Task Force is an intriguing horse. second in the Middle Park, yet to race beyond 6 furlongs, but possibly suited by the step up in trip, open to plenty of improvement, could be a different horses as a 3-year-old over this trip, especially after a win operation.
Night Rider was an impressive winner at Southwell earlier this year. Visually an impressive performance, I’m not yet sold on his ability to bring this speed to a mile.
Alyanaabi was third in the Dewhurst behind City Of Troy. He’s got plenty to find judged on that performance. So has Iberian, a long way beaten that day. Though, the step up to a mile will surely suit.
Notable Speech remains unbeaten in three runs this year. All came on the All-Weather over 7 furlongs and didn’t set the world alight on speed rating. Hard to judge how good he is moving up to a mile.
Ten Bob Tony won a Conditions race last month. But this is much more demanding and I struggle to see how he’s anywhere near good enough for this level.
In a summary, one could argue: there’s plenty of unknowns in this race. City Of Troy sets a good standard and the fact Ballydoyle sends him as their sole representative speaks of a high degree of confidence.
Nonetheless, I’m prepared to take the odds-on favourite on because I simply can’t leave Inisherin unbacked. One of my Horses to Follow this year, he appears somewhat underappreciated in this field, yet is one clearly open to tons of improvement.
This son of Shamardal was beaten only half a lengths on debut last September when the market expected nothing from him(50/1). Possibly well drawn on that day, in fairness, he travelled the best of all to 2 furlongs out and was only beaten by a vastly more experienced horse eventually.
That form doesn’t look too shabby, and he also achieved a pretty decent 76 speed rating for a debut performance.
He got his maiden victory ticket off in March at Newcastle with a visually impressive run on his seasonal return.
One can argue he was flattered by that performance because he got the run of the race from the front in a crawl of a race. Nonetheless, the way he easily sprinted home, without ever being really touched, hitting strong sectionals in the final part of the race, screams talent.
Even more so impressive he was able to show this speed and change of gear as the breeding suggests somewhere beyond a mile will be his optimum trip.
Inisherin looks sure to improve for the experience and a step up in trip may be ideal on pedigree post Guineas as he’s out of smart Ajman Princess who was a Ribblesdale Stakes runner-up and winner of the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet.
With that in mind, I feel he should enjoy the likely fast pace in this edition of the 2000 Guineas, that could ensure the race turns into a stamina test in the end.
The flat is back and quickly kicks into gear. As is customary tradition for this time of the year: here’s a selection of horses to follow throughout the 2024 flat season.
My main focus is once again on potential Group level performers – although some may turn out to develop (“only”?) into classy handicappers. In any case, I hope the following 10 horses do offer indeed significant upside based on what they have shown as juveniles.
In truth, hardly any of these are “dark horses”. I haven’t read any of the numerous “horses to follow” pieces yet, neither any of the more prominent stable tours, in order to avoid getting influenced; nonetheless, if you’re browsing Twitter you can’t escape that some names have been prominently mentioned.
Even though this list had been compiled weeks ago already, and only waited to be published with the start of the new flat season, I can hardly claim to have uncovered “original material”.
In any case, this is an exciting time of the year. All hopes still alive. That lends itself perfectly to take a cheeky look back, also.
HTF 2023 Review:
The 2023 edition did quite well in general. Not every horse turned out be a future star of our beloved sport. But some shot right to the top of the game, while others won decent enough races. If I only would have backed them all when it mattered most.
Nonetheless, the stars of the “class of 23” were clearly Continuous – an excellent winner of the St Leger, as well as Oaks heroine Soul Sister, who was also my biggest winner last year when she landed the Musidora where I backed her at 20s.
English and Irish Guineas placed Hi Royal, Coronation Stakes runner-up Remarquee and impressive Royal Ascot scorer Coppice were other notable horses achieving success in 2023.
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Anzac Day 3yo colt – Andrew Balding
Green on debut when he missed the kick and as a consequence was left with a mountain to climb in a race that favoured the front due to the pace..
Finished very strongly in the final furlong and hinted ability if he could learn and move up in trip, given his pedigree screams stamina.
He moved up an additional furlong ten days later at Newmarket. A fine start, he was soon toward the front of the pack and travelled really well. As he increased the tempo from over 3f out, he soon kicked clear and was not the be caught.
A superb run as he beat a good Godolphin horse in second. The speed rating of 89 confirmed the visual impression. He’ll improve as he moves up to 12 furlongs and could be a dark horse for the Derby.
Azada 3yo filly – Dermot Weld
Impressive finish on debut from the back of the field in horrible ground when she accelerated in superb style from 3f out to leave the rest of the field standing, all while overcoming early greenness.
Achieved an excellent 82 debut speed rating. Looks one with plenty of scope as a 3-year-old, though may need soft ground to be seen to best effect.
A step up to a mile will be no problem whatsoever. Beyond that remains to be seen. The Galileo mare produced a 10f Group 1 winner in Australia, though.
British Camp 3yo colt – Andrew Balding
British Camp was green on his debut. Missed the break and was early enough off the bridle entering the home straight.
Three light backhanders later and finished off nicely under alight enough ride in the closing stages to win it on the line, with seemingly much more left in the tank.
Ran five furlongs of the final mile the fastest sectionals, including the final two furlongs, dipping easily under 12s, in a pretty competitive race, beating some nice horses.
👏 Cracking finish!
British Camp (Lope De Vega) makes a winning debut for Andrew Balding & Kevin Stott with a game victory in the @UnibetRacing More Boosts in More Races Novice Stakes pic.twitter.com/IkHUrHbnoH
— Kempton Park Racecourse (@kemptonparkrace) March 13, 2024
He wasn’t expected on the day. The late May foal drifted out 18/1 before the off. He did plenty wrong, didn’t enjoy the best of trips, and still won also achieving a superb debut speed rating of 84.
Trained by Andrew Balding, British Camp is very well bred and related to smart individuals in his family. He should be capable of getting 1m 4f, but a fast 10 furlongs may be ideal at this stage of his career.
Galen 3yo colt – Joseph O’Brien
Very impressive debut in a maiden where he finished only second behind City Of Try. Missed break, possibly by design, then travelled well against the inside off the pace. Nice progress but in a pocked and had to switch before he ran home strongly, chasing COT.
Wasn’t seen since July. That’s a big question mark. Things must have gone wrong. But he has a Guineas and Derby entry and looks potentially a seriously exciting prospect over 7f to a mile, if there are no further issues.
God’s Window 3yo colt – John Gosden
Showed a likable turn of foot on debut at Doncaster in soft ground despite not being advantaged by how the race developed early on, travelling without cover the first 1.5 furlongs, and coming from off the pace in a slowly run race.
Good 77 debut speed rating. Deemed good enough to contest a deep Futurity Stakes. Missed the break and was quite keen in the early part of the race. Badly positioned but impressive finish for third.
Can only improve as he moves up in trip. Out of an Oaks Trial winner, by Dubawi, he looks an intriguing Derby prospect.
Grosvenor Square 3yo colt – Aiden O’Brien
Gutsy Galway winner on debut. Looked green and clueless enough, especially around the sharp bends. Connections have introduced smart horses in this particular race in the past.
The son of Galileo doesn’t look flashy and doesn’t seem to do anything in a hurry either. He ran well for third travelling quite wide, although he also appeared one paced in the Beresford.
He was seen to much better effect on his final run last year, moving up to 9 furlongs in the Eyrefield Stakes at Leopardstown where he kicked nicely from the front to win with ease.
He’s certainly going to be better the further he goes, as his pedigree suggests, as a son of Galileo and a half-brother to Santiago. Not the classiest in the stable for now, but solid speed ratings over sharp enough trips for this colt as a juvenile, that suggests there is plenty of upside.
Henry Longfellow 3yo colt – Aiden O’Brien
This son of Dubawi and Minding looks the real deal. Visually and on the clock he’s been nothing short of impressive in his three career runs as a juvenile.
The way he quickened on debut and next time in the Futurity Stakes from the front on both occasions was highly promising. He subsequently made top-class 2-year-old Bucanero Fuerte look like a lowly rated claimer in the National Stakes.
Most likely some of that had to do with the fact BF didn’t quite get home over the trip in a fast race. Nonetheless, Henry Longfellow, once again confirmed the impressions from his first two runs.
A seemingly uncomplicated individual, he was able to quicken from the front as well as chase a pace and pass rivals. He looks to possess plenty of scope as well.
The visual impressions are backed up by speed ratings. 85 on debut – that’s often the sign of a potentially classy individual. 101 in the Futurity. Confirmed by a 100 speed rating in the National Stakes.
He has the 2000 Guineas written all over his profile. I’m not an ante-post backer but would be seriously temped by the 6-7/1 available right now. Not totally impossible that he can stretch out to the Derby trip, either, although 10 furlongs may be the limit.
Inisherin 3yo colt – Kevin Ryan
Only half a lengths beaten on debut when market expected nothing (50/1). Travelled the best to 2f out and only beaten by a vastly more experienced horse. Fine 76 speed rating for a debut.
Impressive victory on seasonal return at Newcastle. Benefited from prime position in a really slowly run race but was impressive the way he finished easily sprinting clear under hands and heels with two subsequent sub-11s furlongs.
Looks sure to improve for experience and a step up in trip looks ideal on pedigree. Out of smart Ajman Princess who was Lanshire Oaks 3rd and winner of the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet.
A stiff mile and a strong pace could also work, especially in the early part of the season, possibly. Maybe not a prime contender for a 2000 Guineas, but could have an outside chance.
One Look 3yo filly – Paul Twomey
Overcame a stiff task on debut to take on vastly more experienced rivals in the highly competitive Goffs Million at the Curragh. She obliterated her rivals thanks to superb acceleration from 3f out.
She benefitted from a solid pace and got the gaps when needed that day but the way she put the race to bed was nothing short of astonishing. That’s backed by a sensational 92 debut speed rating.
Not sure she’ll get much further than a mile given the speed she showed and the dam doing her best work over a mile, too. She may need soft ground as well, as it appears she hits the ground quite hard.
Uluru 3yo filly – Joseph O’Brien
Impressive debut at Gowran Park from a wide draw where she didn’t get too well away at the start. Nonetheless, she ran away with it in the end and clocked an excellent 81 speed rating.
Changed hands afterwards and was desperately unlucky for new owners Team Valor in her final start last season. It wasn’t a good pace, she was stuck in the pack and just couldn’t get out. Did well to finish 4th.
She looks capable of improving into a stakes filly. The dam won over 12 furlongs, so a step up in trip will surely help her to improve. She also has an early season entry at Naas in March.
A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous eyecatchers here.
Lil Guff 22/05/23 – 5.00 Windsor:
Settled in rear against the inside rail, before gradually moving over to the other side, travelling well, but not getting a run through over one furlong out, when she tried to progress on the widest outside, with a shifting rival not helping to get clear passage there either.
Finished a fine 3rd. Fast ground, minimum trip not ideal. All best career performances over 6 furlongs, and enjoys less lively ground too. Down to a good mark, won off 76 and 82 last summer.
A 76 speed rating here and 79 speed rating in April suggest she’s in the same form now. Ideally want to see her up in trip, though.
Travelled really well in his group. Fine progress from halfway through and won his group comfortably. Couldn’t catch the winner who travelled alone on the far side.
Ran the best finishing speed. Clearly in good form and on solid mark off 80 having ran to 80 and 83 speed rating last year. Better over 6f on fast ground. Didn’t have that yet this year.
Set hot pace from the front and travelled strongly until getting quite tired from over 1f out to finish 4th eventually as he’s getting swamped late. Should be good form.
Down to fine mark. In good form. Best with ease in the ground, hence this run warrants an upgrade, but is competitive on fast too, and continues to drop a seriously intriguing mark in any case.
Sluggish start, recovered and went forward to lead at a red hot pace. Found plenty under pressure and only late beaten by two from off the pace.
Good speed rating, which is believable. Ran to near similar speed rating a month earlier on the All-Weather. Definitely in good form but has issues and the hood didn’t seem to help. Would stay a mile if he could settle.
Jury is out how much he’s got in hand these days, but worth another try over 7 furlongs as he has been dropped 2lb by the handicapper for this fine effort.
Pushed a hot pace from the front as part of a duo. Kept fighting well to the line under pressure and nearly held on fending off all challengers bar the winner who came from off the pace.
Huge run. 1st tongue tie, responded well here as well for the decent ground. Deserves a chance in these circumstances again. Won off 73 last autumn in fine style and achieved 77 speed rating.
Was disappointing next time. However was a drifter on the day in the betting, never seemed to travel too well and maybe just doesn’t like ground that fast.
Caught seriously wide from #14 draw. Did a lot to cross over and get into a position where she tracked the hot pace. Some progress in the home straight before getting tired and also hampered 1f out.
Ran better than bare form lto on Handicap debut as well. Not ridden with intend to obtain best result last two times. The game is in the name…. down to 50 now interesting, if handbrake is off, especially with any support in the betting.
Travelled like a dream in midfield, well covered. Came through strongly, hard on the bridle, going through a gap over 2 furlongs out. Was eventually outkicked and not had the speed to go with the winner but ran on well.
Has the pedigree to improve beyond six furlongs. Will be of serious interest up in trip if she can settle. Has won and ran well over sprint trips already. The way she travelles suggests there’s talent better than a 78 OR.
Forced to settle off the pace the way the race developed. Was going well but had to wait for room as no gap opened late. Finished best in the final furlong.
Clear return to form after some lesser efforts on the All-Weather. Did well on the sand during winter, though. Down to sexy mark and not out of it on turf either, despite 0/5 record. Never expected in those runs but clearly handles fast ground.
Quickly restraint in rear of the field against the inside rail. Was going pretty well but progress stopped as he was stuck behind a wall of horses, short of room and hampered from two furlongs until late before in the clear inside the final furlong and finished nicely.
Only slowly drops in the mark. Effective over a variety of sprint trips and acts on nearly all ground. Not tremendously well-handicapped but placed off higher and may not be far off a big run if allowed to run on merit.
Swerved to his left out of the gate then settled in midfield. Travelled strongly on the bridle over 2f out behind horses but had to wait for room and switch to the inside for a run. Finished best.
Started the first two furlongs & finished the final furlong faster than the the first two home (fastest final furlong). May not truly stay 1m and would ideally drop to 7f. Lightly raced, good speed rating here as well.
Tracked the pace against the inside rail for most of the race until the two groups merged. He found himself shot of room multiple times and only late was able to get properly into the clear to finish strongly.
Strong form. Ran to 80 speed rating. Seemed to enjoy the decent ground and has responded for blinkers the last two. Showed promise as a juvenile. Clearly better than what he has shown up to now.
If he’s kept in handicap company he’ll be well-handicapped. Move up in trip is certainly preferable.
Travelled in midfield, not going smoothly, niggled along, possibly found the pace over 7f on fastish ground too hot. Kept going well, though. Not clear run over 2f out and slightly hampered over 1f out.
Handicap debut and should be better than this. Decent speed rating. Should move up in trip again and dangerous off 87 on decent ground.
His chances were compromised from the wide draw. He didn’t get in to find cover and as a consequence always travelled three wide, mostly without cover, off the pace. Travelled well and made good progress from over 3f out before getting tired in the final furlong.
May not quite stay a mile. 7f most likely ideal. Impressive win as a juvenile. High enough mark but deserves chance over 7f. He usually can go forward. Deserves chance in easier race.
Huge disadvantage the low draw that day. In rear early on, before excellent progress from three furlong out on the far side. Did well to run so well for so long.
Better over 6f, ideally with decent to fast ground. One who needs things to fall right but ran solid last season still and could be underestimated in the right race.
Widest draw away from the inside rail huge disadvantage. Bumped after the start. Was going okay but short of room over 2f out. Disaster run. Ran on well prior on his handicap debut as well.
Could be better than this. May prefer ease in the ground and/or could enjoy an additional furlong as he doesn’t seem to have the speed for fast 6f. Down to 72 intriguing.
Off to a good start, tracked pace keenly early on. Travelled well enough before he became a bit flat footed over 2 furlongs out as the sedate pace increased. Lost ground but stamina kicked in and he flew home the final furlong.
Could enjoy moving up in trip if the pace is solid. Smart prospect and may be underestimated because his profile isn’t that sexy, especially after his Dubai flop.
Flew down the first half of the race, was over a full second faster to the 3f marker than the eventual winner. Gradually tired but was game to the line.
Bumped into a well-handicapped one on seasonal reappearance lto. Can get home but more often than not 7f is a stretch, probably best over 6f. down to solid mark and clearly in form a pound below his last winning mark.
Moved quickly forward from wider than ideal draw and travelled very wide before moving across to lead. Was going well for long and showed good attitude late as well.
Best over 5f. Down to intriguing mark. Ran well over minimum trip on fast ground last year. Didn’t get the best of luck on the AW lately but finished well, especially last time at Southwell.
Quick start, led from the front as part of duo. Travelled strongly approaching 2f out before he came under severe pressure. beaten by winner from off the pace.
Still a maiden but ran twice 62+ speed ratings. may not stay 7f unless gifted a soft lead. drop to 6f really interesting off career-lowest mark.
Set off very fast, going sprinter pace the first few furlongs, as part of a duo. Kept going well, still ahead 1f out, swamped late. huge run and return to form. down to sexy mark, judged on last season.
Should be strong form. Winner was well-handicapped. Would be most interesting for drop to 7f, even though he stays further, a mile with little pace competition could also be interesting.
Right up with the pace, lead early then chased it. Seemingly going backwards from 2f out but kept on well. Bumped slightly over 1f out and squeezed. Hot race and strong form most likely.
Should find an easier one and can win and may improve with experience still. May also be able to drop to 6f.
Set strong pace from the front. Had the field on the stretch halfway out. Kicked clear and only late beaten by very well-handicapped horse.
May go up a couple of pounds but ran 66 speed rating here and 67 in the past. Clearly best on decent ground, and could go well in the right race of revised mark still in right conditions.
Bumped at the start, settled in rear, made some good progress travelling well from over 3f out on the outside of the field. Impeded 2f out, ran home solid enough.
Looks a big horse. May needed the run still. Still lightly raced, handicap debut and worth to watch out for over 7f-1m on decent ground. Full-sister achieved nothing, so not too many chances given.
Dwelt, keen in rear, seemed difficult to steer and went very wide. great progress and finished second on the line despite jockey tried to pull up early.
Dropped another couple of pounds in the meantime. Run better last few runs than bare form. Still a maiden but could cherry ripe potentially. Entry next week at Haydock intriguing.
Dwelt from wide draw, rushed forward on outside before crossing over to lead the field. Was going well and seriously gutsy to stay in front for as long as he did.
Career best speed rating. clearly back in form. Not on to trust to follow-up, but worth to check if he drops to 7f again as the additional half furlong may have been a bit too far here.
Tracked the pace on far side, quite prominently ridden. Travelled well to 2f out but couldn’t quite keep up the effort in the closing stages. Did best of those low drawn, which is often a disadvantage over this CD.
Career-best on speed ratings, as low as that is. 7f on fast ground ideal and interesting in a similarly poor race when she has a good draw.
Dwelt and awkward out of the gate. Settled in midfield, bumped into rival before the first turn. Made progress and found a route through to challenge, though the winner was long gone. Ran on well.
Confirmed lto promise. Down to fine mark. Best on decent ground (ideally no worse than yielding), so could be intriguing on a more conventional track if the dry spell continues. However, can have issues at the gate.
Travelled seriously well on the far side, covered up behind the pace. Pulled out over 2f out and kicked on well to lead, before late beaten by horse on the stands’ side.
Well handicapped on last-years form. Clearly back in form as he showed some promise at Catterick prior too.
He enjoys decent ground and should remain dangerous even with a small hike in the ratings.
A finish dominated by those ridden with restraint. Which was somewhat surprising, because they didn’t go too hard in the first half of the race, with a finishing speed of 116% for the winner, Auguste Rodin (the par for the Derby distance at Epsom is around 111%) not quite telling the tale, perhaps.
King Of Steel raced the closest to the pace from those who made any impact in the closing stages. He travelled pretty well in midfield and kicked on strongly from over 3f out, before being outstayed in the final furlong by the Aiden O’Brien trained colt.
White Birch came from very far back and made great progress on the outside in the home straight. He’s an obvious eyecatcher in that sense. However, there a couple of others who interest me more for the future.
Sprewell is probably the one who left the biggest impression on me. I was certainly not overly keen on him beforehand, but he certainly confirmed his huge talent in the Derby.
It was his fifth career start, but the first time going over the Derby trip. He looked still a bit keen and perhaps green at various stages of the race, hence the fact he finished so well in 4th, without ever appearing with a shot of winning, truth told, is noteworthy.
He found himself short of room at a crucial stage of the race over 2.5f out, though. Subsequently he got badly unbalanced, yet found his momentum quickly again and ran on before his stamina ran out in the final furlong.
Fast ground clearly wasn’t an issue. But the Derby trip may stretch his stamina, especially in a properly run race. However, he has shown his class over 10 furlongs already. That looks his trip. He’s one I’ll track.
Waipiro endured a disaster run. he dwelt, was then caught behind a wall of horses, trailed the field and had to come around wide for a run.
He made excellent progress from 4f out around Tattenham Corner, before his effort fizzled out from 2f out. He probably didn’t get the trip. Though, I thought the confirmed the promise he showed at Newmarket and at Lingfield.
Whether he’s a genuine Group 1 horse remains to be seen. He could be underestimated if he drops down to 10 furlongs, though.
Artistic Star ran a race of two halves, so to speak. Initially I was disappointed with his run. I backed him, and thought he would do much better than a 11 lengths beaten 7th place.
However, he ran a race full of promise. After a solid start he didn’t travel well, niggled at various stages. Perhaps inexperience in such a big, tight field was to blame.
Three furlongs from home he was relegated to last even, before the penny seemed to drop and he motored home in the 4rd fastest final 3f split to pass many tired horses.
He’ll have learned plenty and remains at this stage an exciting prospect after two excellent career performances prior where he ran strong speed ratings for an inexperienced horse.
Whether he’s Group 1 class remains to be seen. His siblings were smart horses but not quite top-notchers. He looks to stay the Derby distance, much like they did, though.
Back-to-back winners: Ventura Express won his race at Pontefract quite comfortably. Everything worked to absolute perfection – that’s not always the case: superb ride, hugged the rail, saved ground, kicked on 2f out and game over.
He was well backed all day too, went off 7/2. So I got a great price, although a little lower than originally thought as I only realised in the morning my full stake wasn’t matched as initially thought it did. Topped up and ended up closer to 7s, which is still lovely.
On to Saturday: it’s Irish 2000 Guineas day. I love this day and will make may way down the N7 to the Curragh, of course. This is usually when Ireland is at its most beautiful – warm, and sunny, everything is blossoming. Plenty of hope is in the air right before the first Classic of the Irish flat season as well.
It’s also another Grade 1 day over in South Africa. One of the premier contests for 3-year-old middle-distance horses shapes as a cracker of a race (potential selection in the morning when there is a market for me to back, to be added here).
I also must say the amount of racing this Saturday – and quite frankly most of the days during the week as well – is simply overwhelming. I struggle to keep up and it takes a bit the joy out of it.
I love turf racing, but enjoy the somewhat quieter pace of the All-Weather season more, as sad as that sounds. The latest news from the reshaped fixture list in the UK doesn’t provide much hope that this is to change anytime soon.
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2.12 Greyville: Grade 1 Daily News 2000, 1m 2f
A hot renewal of the key race for the middle-stance three-year-olds in South Africa. The right horses are here to the most part.
See It Again is a pretty short-priced favourite, and you can see why. He was a 40/1 shock winner in the Cape Derby and followed up nicely in the WSB Guineas earlier this month when he ran on well after getting badly outpaced over three furlongs out.
The step up to 2000m will surely suit and he’s clearly the one to beat, simply given the fact he beat Charles Dickens at Kenilworth, who’s the benchmark every three-year-old is measured against this year, and because he finished so strongly when last seen over a trip a bit on the sharp side.
But he’s a tricky horse as well. One who has to be ridden in a specific way. He wears blinkers for a reason and can race sluggishly. I wouldn’t want to trust him at short odds.
Without Question runs in the same colours and was a good third in the Derby, where he faltered late after pushing the pace. He went on to win a Grade 3 over a mile on his comeback run when last seen, doing so against older horses.
He’s clearly talented and may get the run of the race from close to the pace here.
Cousin Casey is probably the most interesting horse here. A son of 2013 Daily News winner Vercingetorix, he was a brilliant 2-year-old and has done well in his 3yo campaign as well, against seriously tough opposition.
After landing a Grade 2 over a mile on his seasonal reappearance he went on to ran a huge race as runner-up behind Charles Dickens in the Cape Guineas. That pushed him near the top of the market for South Africa’s Premier all-age open middle-distance Grade 1, the Met.
From a wide draw he was caught wide, was pulling hard without cover and eventually pulled his way to the front. He only went down late in the day behind the countries best horses, for a strong 5th place. A huge run.
He got a well-deserved break afterwards, before returning with a fine tune-up race at Greyville, before a solid 4th in the WSB Guineas behind Charles Dickens.
That day he made huge progress from the back of the field on the outside from 4f out. he clearly did too much there, going upside with Charles Dickens and fast finishing See It Again. He paid for those exertions, eventually.
Going up in trip isn’t a worry. He should stay the distance on pedigree and the Met run gives plenty of hope. However, he can pull hard as well, and that’s the main worry.
I believe he’s the best horse in the race, though, if he can get his act together. His Met run is clearly the strongest form in the race, this is his third run after a beak, the one he’s had as the target for a while, he should be at his peak now. With that in mind the odds are generous.
10pts win – Cousin Casey @ 4/1
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3.05 Curragh: Listed Orby Stakes, 1m4f
Sionnach Eile looked last season like one very much capable of stepping up listed level when he won back-to-back Handicaps in July. He had a long break since then, and with that in mind the recent Cork comeback run can be ignored.
Nonetheless, he travelled pretty well for a long time before getting pretty tired eventually. You would hope he strips fitter here, and one would think connections have had this contest in mind for a while.
He moves up in trip, which is sure to suit, given he won over twice over 1m 4f+, including the hot Guinness Handicap at Galway when last seen off 94.
That was a clear career-best effort as he achieved a superb 97 speed rating, which gives him an excellent chance in this type of race here, if he could run to the same level of form.
The pace could be muddling, but no bother, Sionnach Eile can move forward and could be hard to catch if allowed to stride on.
10pts win – Sionnach Eile @ 5/1
………
3.40 Curragh: Group 1 Irish 2000 Guineas, 1m
A sub-standard edition of the first Classic of the Irish Flat season. This seems to evolve around the British raiders for once because Aiden O’Brien’s horses are a surprisingly poor bunch, certainly judged on what they have done up until now.
Proud And Regal is the one exception, as he’s a Group 1 winner from his juvenile season. However, a mile on decent ground is a completely different test to a mile on heavy going in France at the end of a 2-year-old campaign.
Paddington is Ryan Moore’s choice. He won a Listed trial at Leopardstown after winning a hot Handicap on his seasonal comeback. He’s got potential, though, given he hasn’t run any significant speed rating yet, does appear to be well below Group 1 standard.
It’s fair to say Royal Scotsman enhanced his credentials in no uncertain terms in the English 2000 Guineas earlier this month. He ran on well for 3rd place despite showing early keenness, which can’t have helped.
He’s got a huge engine, as we knew from his excellent juvenile campaign as well. No doubt he does stay the trip and the slight uphill finish at the Curragh will be to his advantage.
For all that, he’s a short price, perhaps fairly so, but his tendency to pull hard is a question mark in a race where the pace may not be red hot.
The obvious for me, although I’m certainly biased as well, is Hi Royal. He was one of those 3-year-old colts I flagged in my 3yo to follow piece before the start of the season.
He certainly confirmed the promise shown as a juvenile when he finished a brilliant runner-up at Newmarket in the English 2000 Guineas. For the most part he even looked like the winner, until hanging a potential Classic success in the final furlong away.
Hi Royal has an engine, a turn of foot and does stay beyond a mile probably. He should enjoy the galloping Curragh and the uphill finish to the line.
Somewhat of a question mark is the likely fastish ground, though. The Guineas was on officially soft ground. His sole career victory came with plenty of cut in the ground.
What gives hope is his debut run, when an excellent third in a hot maiden on fast ground. However, he seems to hit the ground hard and the fact he is probably at his best once he moves up to 10 furlongs is a concern.
Nonetheless, he’s the most solid choice and slightly overpriced, given he has proven his class already, settled well, travelles well and has plenty of upside.
10pts win – Hi Royal @ 11/2
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4.10 Haydock: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
This is a wide open contest on paper, but I feel Big R is potentially hard to beat if he acts on the fast ground.
He was a huge eyecatcher on his seasonal reappearance and handicap debut last time at Salisbury, and despite the massive effort, he has been eased by a pound in the meantime. That won’t make too much of a difference as he’s already extremely well-handicapped off 70, most likely.
At Salisbury he was at a disadvantage from the #8 gate right away. He was caught wide and without cover early on, before settling at the back of the field. hen then made rapid progress on outside from the halfway stage to challenge the leaders over 1f out, before getting tired and beaten by those with better draws and closer to the pace.
It rates a huge performance against the pace and track bias. He showed good early speed last year as well, suggesting sprinting is his game. He may stay 7f on pedigree, but 6f appears to be ideal.
Big R was a cheap yearling, so is not one who has tons of scope, probably. Nonetheless, judged on this most recent run he looks clearly better than a 69 Official Rating.
10pts win – Big R @ 4/1
………
4.55 Goodwood: Class 4 Handicap, 5f
Huberts Dream looks dramatically overpriced if he’s good to go here. He’s got a good draw to attack the rail and stretch the field, while he may well enjoy the better ground which he didn’t get in those turf starts when expected to run well.
Certainly one can ignore the recent Chester run in deep ground from a #10 draw and he also lost a shoe. He ran with plenty of credit at Lingfield prior in a seriously competitive Handicap.
To continue to run over the minimum trip seems a good idea. He showed signs of severe keenness over 6 furlongs in the past, but at the same time showed that early speed is his biggest asset.
He won well on the All-Weather during the winter notching up a hat-trick of wins achieving multiple speed ratings in the 70s. He’s dangerous here if allowed to run on merit.
Saturday was wild. Harry’s Hill won, despite drifting out to 15/2 SP. He won like a ‘good thing’, though. I was stuck with 9/2 in any case, so the drift was no good to me. But I had him a good point shorter in my book, anyway. So, happy days.
Not so much a “happy ending” in the 2000 Guineas. Silver Knott was never going to win once the rain arrived. And there was a lot of rain! So much so it turned the ground to proper soft.
I’m upset with my eagerness to back him early, instead of having waited until Saturday to make a much better informed decision. Poor decision making is what eats profit.
And then there was Hi Royal. A huge price, could have been backed at 150s in the morning. Surely a small each-way bet would have been on the cards, especially as he was one of my 3-year-olds to follow and I wrote about him:
“Could be somewhat of a “dark horse” for the Guineas… given the speed he showed in his first two career starts. Clearly he’s seriously talented”.
Well, he ran a huge race to finish 2nd, looked like the winner even, before hanging badly. A missed opportunity. Sometimes I just don’t trust my own judgement enough.
………
It wasn’t a bet but I was nonetheless incredibly delighted, simply as a racing fan: everyone who follows this blog probably knows I love South African racing, and have grown particularly fond of 3-year-old colt Charles Dickens.
He was back today, down to a mile against his own age group. He won with authority, produced his usual stunning turn of foot and it was simply great to see him back to somewhere near his brilliant best.
It was a super ride by Aldo Domeyer, who made progress at the right time before it was too late as the pace wasn’t all that hot, and then trusted the acceleration of Charles Dickens, that was instant, to move through the gap on the inside.
The Durban July has been ruled out. Which is rather obvious, given the colt didn’t get home over 10 furlongs. But another crack over a mile against older horses would be seriously intriguing. The Gold Challenge at Greyville next month has been mentioned as a potential target, indeed.
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3.00 Newmarket: Dahlia Stakes, 9f
The ground throws this race wide open and I feel progressive filly Al Husn is possibly underestimated. She’s one of the horses I gonna follow keenly this season. Moving up to Group 2 level is asking plenty of her, but I believe she showed enough last year to think she could have a solid chance to be in the mix.
It may turn out that she isn’t quite good enough, but the filly loves it at Newmarket and is likely to enjoy the soft underfoot conditions, given she won impressively on good to soft when last seen and seems to hit the ground quite hard, too.
I loved her win over a mile in a class 3 Handicap here back in September, when she ran home strongly to win a shade cozily. She was even more impressive, I thought, when she moved up in class and trip to win a hot class 2 Handicap a few weeks later over 10 furlongs at the Rowley Mile.
She became a bit disorganised in a rough finish from 3f out before she hit top gear and sprinted home strongly to win with authority once again.
Dropping down to 9 furlongs in proper soft conditions shouldn’t be a problem. She showed plenty of cruising speed in her races and has the pedigree to stay, possibly even beyond 10 furlongs.
I’d be surprised if she isn’t ready for her reappearance. Roger Varian wouldn’t throw her into the deep end, otherwise. Yes, she has a bit to find on ratings, including speed ratings, but she has an opportunity to show that she belongs here. She looks the value in this contest.
10pts win – Al Husn @ 10/1
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3.25 Leopardstown: Group 3 Derby Trial Stakes, 10f
Up And Under was an unlucky runner-up in a photo in the Ballysax Stakes on his seasonal reappearance. He travelled much the best, made smooth progress on the outside of the field until he got tight for room and badly bumped 2 furlongs from home.
It was impressive how he gathered momentum following the collision as rapidly as he did to fight it out in a battle with potentially smart White Birch. If he wouldn’t have been hampered, could he have won? I think he might have and then would be a shorter price.
🏆Ballysax Stakes (G3) 2000m, 50.000 EUR, for 3yo 🇮🇪Leopardstown
White Birch (GB) (3C Ulysses – Diagnostic, by Dutch Art) J :Shane Foley T :John Joseph Murphy O :Mrs C C Regalado-Gonzalez B : Cheveley Park Studpic.twitter.com/XWnK4F15L6
He clearly acts on soft ground, as he also ran a lovely race on debut on heavy ground in his sole start as a juvenile last October.
He looks a lovely prospect for middle-distance races this year, and could also step up to 12 furlongs.
For now, this presents a good opportunity to score in Group company because favourite Proud And Regal may well be the default favourite but the Donnacha O’Brien trained colt’s Group 1 win at the end of last season doesn’t look overly strong form.
The price is just about getting quite skinny now and I would not go below 11/4, to be honest.
10pts win – Up And Under @ 11/4
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3.40 Newmarket: Group 1, 1000 Guineas, 1m
Favourite Tahiyra is all class. The way she won the Moyglare last season was incredibly impressive. It’s the standout piece of form and she ran a good 99 speed rating as well, without having to go all out.
The vibes from the Weld yard were somewhat mixed leading up to the Guineas. However, it’d be hard to believe such an experienced handler would send her over if she wouldn’t be ready to go.
She beat Meditate at the Curragh in the most impressive style. Hard on the bridle with two furlongs to go, she never saw the whip, yet produced a sensational turn of foot.
I think she’s not a bad price at all, even. Certainly the one to beat on paper.
Meditate, runner-up in the Moyglare went on to win at Breeders’ Cup subsequently. The Aiden O’Brien trained filly should rate a key danger once again.
She ran to a 104 speed rating when runner-up behind speedy Lezoo in the Cheveley Park Stakes. Therefore, she possesses plenty of speed and looks well capable to stretch out to a mile as evident at Keeneland. But that was on firm ground. The soft going is a a bit of a question mark.
Aforementioned Lezoo would be seriously dangerous if she could stay a mile. She looks a sprinter to me, though. Somewhat similar doubts hang over recent Nell Gwyn Stakes winner Gammas Girl. The Guineas is a much deeper race, but it’s far from a given that she can get home over the additional furlong.
Dreams Of Love and Mawj bring solid form from Meydan. Is that form good enough? Maybe. Mawj ran excellent speed ratings and has experience on her side. She’s a danger I seriously rate.
But there is absolutely no doubt in mind that they all have to beat Remarquee, including the filly herself. What I mean is: she is obviously a tricky filly, can be raw, awkward and looks seriously green in her first two career runs.
At the same time she created a huge impression on debut last year at Salisbury when she finished like a train, and no less so at Newbury in the Fred Darling two weeks ago.
That day she didn’t have the clearest of runs, before she accelerated really well from two furlongs out. She looked far from straight forward, carried her head awkwardly, yet won with tons in hand, nearly on the bridle, eventually.
Remarquee is now 6/1 from 25/1 for the 1000 Guineas after success in the Fred Darling at Newbury.
Obviously I’m biased because I flagged her as a 3-year-old to follow. But it’s difficult not be impressed by what she has done so far, exactly because she was so green.
That recent experience can only help. So should the step up to a mile and the soft ground, which is going to suit her more than many here. I must back her at current prices.
10pts win – Remarquee @ 7/1
…….
4.58 Hamilton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Sir Benedict ran too poorly to be true at Catterick when last seen less than two weeks ago. His rider relinquished an advantageous draw and steered away from the far rail, which was no help at all.
But I do remain faithful to him, even though, one could ask: is there ever going to be another day for him to shine? He’s probably one of the most unfortunate horses without a “W” to his name this year.
He’s a tricky sort and there’s a reason why he’s yet to win in 2023, despite knocking on the door a number of times and having dropped another two pounds lower than. At the same time, I maintain that he looks cherry ripe.
To go up and run over 6 furlongs again is a risk, though. He can pull hard when there’s no pace to run at. You never know how the race is going to develop, though, it looks likely that they good a decent clip here.
He caught my eye a number of times over the last weeks and months. Especially three runs ago at Newcastle, stuck behind a wall of horses, he finished best, doing so nearly on hard held.
And prior to that also at Wolverhampton, again not enjoying a clear run, he dipped below 11s in the penultimate furlong and finished like a train.
The soft ground at Hamilton should be to his advantage, as well as that he’s a course and distance winner, who won here off 60 and ran to a 64 speed rating last June looks.
However, on proper soft ground the stiff finish may stretch him, especially if he shows any signs of keenness early on. That’s a the risk. He’s irresistibly well-handicapped, though, I’d follow him over the cliff another time again, given he ran to a 54 speed rating easily last month and 3x to 59 plus within the last twelve months.
If you’re prepared to oppose 6/4 favourite (at the time of writing) Auguste Rodin then the first Classic of the 2023 flat season appears to be a wide open affair.
In my view, including the favourite, there are serious question marks looming over all of the better fancied horses here, though. That adds to the intrigue but also difficulty to untangle the puzzle.
That may not be unusual, given it’s only May, and half the field didn’t have a run as 3-year-old colts yet. But it feels there are more profound question marks many have to answer this time than in preceding years.
Auguste Rodin has been hailed as a potential Triple Crown winner. You can see why. Three wins from four runs last year, he finished the season with a Group 1 triumph in the Futurity.
He’s expected to improve massively as a three-year-old, especially once he moves up in trip. Any rain would be a huge help to his chances as well.
On the other hand, the fact he hasn’t achieved overly impressive speed ratings yet – although, perhaps not helped having to run on heavy ground the last two times, as well as that he always stayed on strongly more so than having a blistering turn of foot – has me questioning his speed on better ground against proper milers.
Trained by Aiden O’Brien, who knows better than most what it takes to win the Guineas; nonetheless, the price is skinny and he appears beatable.
Stable mate Little Big Bear was crowned Europe’s Champion Juvenile after a demolition job in the Phoenix Park Stakes at the Curragh back in August. That was over 6 furlongs and he wasn’t seen again last year.
He looks a sprinter to me, even though the dam side gives some hope. Yet, he showed so much precocious speed as a juvenile, I have clear doubts that he stays a mile at Newmarket in a hot 2000 Guineas.
Chaldean progressed with each run last year, winning twice in Group class before his season culminated in a superb Dewhurst success. He achieved a 106 speed rating, which is “best in class” in this Guineas field.
He has his quirks, though, as evident at Newmarket when he started slowly, and also on his seasonal reappearance in the Greenham where he wore a hood to post, before becoming distracted by a rival starting right beside him, jinked to his left as a consequence, and unseated Frankie Dettori.
I have reservations on that basis, as well as over his stamina. He kept on well enough over 7 furlongs, but how much more is there to give over an additional furlong? The dam has produced largely speedier types.
Royal Scotsman was a superb juvenile. He ran on well for a close 2nd behind Chaldean in the Dewhurst. He got the trip, seemingly. Not sure how much scope he has to improve, given he started his career in early May last year.
A mile doesn’t look impossible on pedigree, but Sakheer is another one who may prove best over over shorter distances. He didn’t ran particularly fast on speed ratings either. Craven Stakes winner Indestructible can’t be easily discounted, given he has that CD record. But he may not be classy enough for a Guineas and it’s a quick turnaround after that big run only a fortnight ago.
Even though he is only 1/5, I quite like the look of Holloway Boy as one outrun his price tag and possibly finish in the placings. He can be upgraded for some of those placed efforts last year and is sure to progress as a 3-year-old, given he’s a son of Ulysses.
Charlie Appleby saddles two: Gimcrack winner Noble Style hasn’t been seen since August. I have major doubts over his stamina. You wouldn’t have any worries about stamina with stable mate Silver Knott, though.
A winner of three of his six starts last year, he progressed nicely through the season from a 4th place beaten behind Chaldean on debut, to winning the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at the Rowley Mile.
I can forgive him a poor showing in the Champagne Stakes when he finished a disappointing last of five. The ground got him beat. He definitely prefers better ground.
He showed a lot of class at Newmarket in September, though, when he beat smart Epictetus. The way he found another gear from two furlongs out, and then always just doing enough, impressed me, as he also ran to a 105 speed rating.
Silver Knott finished the year with a desperately unlucky runner-up performance at the Breeders Cup. He wasn’t the sharpest out of the gate, appeared plenty keen enough throughout, and got stuck behind rivals at a crucial stage. And yet, he only got beaten in a photo.
No doubt, he’s likely to be seen to best effect once he steps up to 10 furlongs – granted he has trained on, which we will have to see. He’s got solid stamina in his pedigree.
At the same time, he looked speedy enough as a juvenile, and showed a nice change of gear a number of times. The ground as it stands should be a huge bonus to his chances.
However, the rain forecast is a serious concern. How much is going to fall between now and then? The clerk watered the ground which is just bizarre given the forecast.
We’ll have to find out. I gamble on the fact that there isn’t enough precipitation to turn the currently as good to firm classified going to anything worse than good to soft.
Anything worse than good to soft would be a problem. But I can’t see that happening. Therefore, at the given prices, Silver Knott looms as a major value bet in my book.
10pts win – Silver Knott @ 12.5/1
……….
1.35 Naas: Handicap, 5f
An Irish Handicap with 21 runners? I couldn’t think of anything less appealing as a betting proposition.
And yet I find myself incredibly bullish about the chances of Harry’s Hill. He was an eyecatcher on his last two runs against much stronger rivals. Yet, despite those two excellent performance he has been dropped a whopping 4lb (whopping by Irish standards) for those runs.
He came to my attention for the first on his seasonal reappearance at the Curragh at the end of March:
He was somewhat awkwardly away from the gate, but then showed blistering early speed to lead the field. He was going well for a long time before falling away in the final furlong.
To some extend it was a similar story last time at Cork. However, that time he also had to overcome a draw disadvantage, and was racing as part of a small group on the far side. He won on his side, and once again travelled very strongly for a long time.
On both occasions he was up against it on class terms. Both runs warrant additional upgrading because they came on extremely deep ground.
His record on ground not worse than yielding over 5 furlongs – it looks fair to assume the ground continues to dry as it’s quite warm, sunny and breezy here in Naas with no further rain of any significance expected – is excellent: 7-2-3.
This is an easier race, on his preferred ground and trip. The stiff finish is the only slight concern I have. Though, he won at the Curragh which also has an uphill finish, so perhaps it’s no big deal.
On speed ratings he looks also competitive off his current 73 mark, which is 3lb higher than his career best from last year, when he seemed to take his form to a new level.
He ran to a 71 speed last season, rating but I have well founded hopes that he could improve by another couple of pounds in ideal conditions once again.
10pts win – Harry’s Hill @ 9/2
There’s one more I quite like but have to decide in the morning, if there’s some positive vibes in the betting, and will update the post accordingly.
At the start of 2022 flat season I followed the trend of many racing fans and compiled a personal list of Five to Follow for the new season ahead.
It’s December, and the 2022 flat season belongs to the history books – a good time a look back and check how the five horses have fared this year.
Aldous Huxley
Despite the great name and a highly promising debut on the Kempton polytrack that landed him a spot in my list, Aldous Huxley has not quite fulfilled the early promise.
A fine runner-up behind fellow Godolphin colt New London (more on him later) in a Novice event at Newmarket, followed a neck beaten 2nd place finish in the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood.
Despite enjoying the run of the race, Aldous Huxley wasn’t good enough to win at that level. No surprise, because he never bettered the strong speed rating achieved on debut (90) either, suggesting he wasn’t really an improving sort.
He hasn’t been seen since this run in May and was gelded in the meantime.
It remains to be seen whether he can find improvement as a gelding next year. I would certainly hope so. He was a May foal, and his dam was a late bloomer as well.
Final Official Rating: 101
Best Speed Rating: 90
Cash
The David Simmcock trained colt seriously caught the eye when he blasted home in a Newmarket maiden at the backend of the 2021 season.
Unfortunately, he was only seen twice this year. That was at Sandown in the Group 3 Classic Trial. He was a desperately unlucky runner-up behind a certain Westover.
The French Derby and later QEII were targets subsequently, but neither materialised due to injuries. A real shame as he was so impressive on his debut and clearly trained on.
He made a belated comeback on the Kempton polytrack in November where he was a disappointing third of four starters. He travelled sweetly but hang in the closing stages.
I believe he stays in training. At least that’s what the owners mentioned a few months ago. One would hope so. This talented grey deserves a chance to show his very best. And I’d be more than hopeful he’s better than this last run.
Final Official Rating: 108
Best Speed Rating: 78
Claymore
He made seasonal reappearance at the place that saw him earn a spot in my 5TF list: Newmarket. A good 2nd place behind 2000 Guineas ante-post favourite Native Trail promised something for the season ahead.
The colt, trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam, subsequently finished last in the French Derby, but that was largely down to being drawn in the car park.
However, he then delivered on the big stage, when next seen, as he went wire to wire to win the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot.
This remained the highlight of his season as he was soundly beaten in the Group 2 York Stakes the next- and the last time we’ve seen him this year.
Final Official Rating: 111
Best Speed Rating: 89
New London
Without a shadow of a doubt the horse that turned out the best from my 5FT list. It didn’t look like it, initially. Even though, he won at Newmarket on his season debut, a subsequent rather lackluster run in the Chester Vase saw his Derby credentials evaporate.
He dropped into Handicap company the next time, obliged duly, proving to be a pattern horse running in a Handicap. He then went on to land the Group 3 Gordon Stakes at Goodwood as he stepped up in trip.
He was subsequently installed as the new favourite for the final Classic of the season: the St. Leger at Doncaster.
Going into the Leger as the 11/8 favourite, it was clearly an anti-climax when New London only managed to finish third. He had every chance in the home straight, but wasn’t quite good enough on the day. Perhaps the softish ground wasn’t quite ideal, given his very best performance came in much faster conditions than those present at Doncaster that day.
Final Official Rating: 111
Best Speed Rating: 108
Subastar
Big things were expected after the Roger Varian trained colt impressed on his sole run as a juvenile. However, he got beaten by over nine lengths on what turned out to be his only start this season, when third of four in the Listed Newmarket Stakes in April.
Connections mentioned they would take their time with this “really nice prospect”. He had subsequent entries at Royal Ascot – the Hampton Court touted as the likeliest race to run in the week leading up to the Royal racing event. He was never seen again, though.
This colt by Sea The Stars was a May foal. I would hope we may see him next year as a 4-year-old. He has been gelded in October, which may be a positive sign for a campaign in 2023.
The first opportunity of Irish Classic glory for fillies looks a wide open affair as 14 go to post at the Curragh this afternoon.
It’s no surprise to see an Aiden O’Brien trained filly heading the betting for an Irish Classic. However, the fact he throws three other fillies into the mix doesn’t scream confidence.
Tuesday, at the time of writing the 11/4 favourite, ran with plenty of credit at Newmarket in the English Guineas, finishing a solid third place behind Cachet, who has franked the form in the meantime. There’s every chance the lightly raced daughter of Galileo will improve.
Yet her career-best topspeed rating of 95 isn’t anything special. Could she meet the same fate as her full-sister Minding, who finished runner-up in the Irish 1000 Guineas in 2016? Well, I think it’s certainly worth to oppose Tuesday today, aynway.
Dermot Weld has a strong chance with Homeless Songs, the winner of the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial. The Frankel daughter produced a nice turn of foot to beat smart runner-up Agartha.
No doubt she can progress and has to be considered a main threat to Tuesday. But to be a true contender she certainly has to improve. At Leopardstown she was a bit slow out of the gates, something you’ll hardly overcome in a Classic; while the performance was visually impressive, the 82 topspeed rating isn’t nearly as impressive.
The aforementioned Agartha was probably a bit unlucky in the Group 3 Cornelscourt Stakes subsequently. She finished second once again, that day behind History.
History, another filly for Aiden O’Brien, is another obvious improver, who should take another step forward from her really pleasing seasonal reappearance at Leopardstown.
Both fillies – History and Agartha – look solid alternatives to the favourite in my eyes, especially as the stiff Curragh finish should suit them.
William Haggas travels over with his representative Purplepay. She was an excellent third against the boys in the Criterium International when last seen. However, race fitness and most certainly the ground are major question marks for her. It may not be soft enough for her.
Mise En Scene hasn’t been seen since finishing 10th at the Breeders’ Cup. Her Prestige Stakes victory last August would give her a fair form chance to feature today. But hard to gauge what expect from her given she’s been off since November.
I am pretty sweet on the chances of another Aiden O’Brien trained filly: Concert Hall. She has Oaks written all over her, and at first glance a drop to a mile isn’t ideal. But in a Guineas that lacks substance, I feel she’s overpriced.
On pure form terms she has serious claims. She’s also top rated on topspeed – a 97 rating isn’t anything to shout about in top-class company, but that shows the lack of depth in the race today. More importantly though, Concert Hall achieved this career best TS last time out.
The daughter of Oaks winner Was returned as a 3-year-old with a fine victory at Navan last month where she stepped up to 1m 2f for the first time.
Not surprisingly she looked a bit fresh and was pretty keen for the first half of the race, but then travelled strongly on the home straight nonetheless and won in better style than the short winning margin may suggest.
The form has already worked out well, although the caveat is that she simply beat slower horses, given the third has won a Listed race over 1m 5f in the meantime and the fourth a Group 3 over 10 furlongs. Nonetheless, there’s real substance to this form.
Going back to her juvenile season her sixth place finish in the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket was better than the bare result, and she was not far behind Cachet and Prosperous Voyage.
Before that she won the Group 3 Weld Park Stakes over 7 furlongs at the Curragh, clearly doing her strongest work up the stiff finish at the County Kildare venue.
In my mind this is the key to her chances today: that bit of give in the ground will put additional emphasis on stamina and horses can get really tired when they meet the stiff final furlong finish at the Curragh.
Concert Hall has proven that she has solid cruising speed, so I would not expect her to be seriously outpaced and getting too far behind.
Her future will most likely be over further. Today could simply be a stepping stone toward the Oaks. Aiden O’Brien mentioned this filly thrives on racing. Whether she well and truly enjoys cut in the ground remains to be seen. Others in this field, especially those fillies more at home over a mile may take a big step forward and outpace her.
Those are all dangers. Nonetheless, at given prices she looks significant value in my book given there is solid grounds to believe she will be more than capable to compete in this field at this track over this trip.
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