Tag Archives: Brighton

Wednesday Selections: August, 22nd 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

2.50 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Impart has slipped dramatically in the weights having one last year of an 18lb higher mark. He has ran well a handful of times, though. Most notably in June over course and distance off 5lb higher than his now career lowest rating.

That form looks rock solid and a similar showing today would see Impart go really close. His latest run is concerning, though. Twelve days ago he was here at Brighton a long way beaten over 5.5f – his worst performance in his last six outings.

This is not a particularly strong contest today, on the other hand. Returning to 6f should help while the going isn’t an issue.

Selection:
10pts win – Impart @ 7/2 MB

……..

5.10 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Despite being on a losing streak of 13 consecutive runs, judged by two of his three runs this year Red Gunner is on a winnable mark right now. He was unlucky not to get closer than third last time at Lingfield and the handicapper has given him a big chance leaving the mark untouched.

He was slowly into stride that day, then travelled powerfully, but ultimately didn’t get the breaks when needed and got going on the outside to late. Once steered into the clear, Red Gunner thundered home from the back of the field.

This, as well as his less than two lengths beaten 5th at Kempton on his seasonal reappearance as well as debut for the Loughnane yard appears to be competitive form that is strong enough to see him as a major runner here today.

Selection:
10pts win – Red Gunner @ 7/2 PP

……

8.45 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Treacherous has been twice a CD winner this summer already. He’s been slightly regressive in his next three starts. However, he travelled supremely well last time out at Sandown despite pulling hard through the first half of the race, looking the likely winner, just to tire in inside the final furlong.

I still rate it a big performance and a return to Kempton should see him in better light. He achieved a TS of 71 when winning here in June, so only 2lb higher, there is still a possibility, particularly in this grade, that he can find a bit more as it also is still only his eight career start on the All-Weather, of which he won three and placed in another one.

It’s noteworthy that jockey Pat Cosgrave makes the journey to Kempton for this single ride. He’s also steered Treacherous already to success in the past.

Selection:
10pts win – Treacherous @ 6/1 Sky

Thursday Selections: August, 9th 2018

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2.50 Yarmouth + 4.00 Brighton:

An unusual multiple bet for me, but individually it’s too short to play, combined I nice chance to succeed at tasty odds.

Lightly raced Black Lotus in the Yarmouth Handicap was an excellent winner lto at Haydock. The form works out well already and the filly showed clear ability to be quite a bit better than her rating as she was winning cozily in the end and still ran to a TSR of 66. Her revised mark shouldn’t be enough to stop her.

A similar situation for Affina to some extend. She ran really well over a mile at Doncaster when runner-up recently. That form looks strong. She ran to a TSR of 78 that day, so on her revised mark has not too much to improve which is likely for this lightly raced filly as she steps up to a much more suitable 10f trip. It’s Tom Marquand only ride on the day – a tip in itself.

Selection:
10pts win – Black Lotus + Affina @ 3.75/1 Sky

……..

4.30 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Yet to win on turf, Sir Jamie came close only one day ago at this very same venue over 7f. He was only beaten when a well handicapped 3-year old came storming home from the back off the field.

This three times AW winner steps up to a mile today, which is his preferred trip. He can race off the same mark and judged on his performance yesterday has a strong chance. He also ran to TSR or 51 yesterday. This additional furlong may unlock a bit more for this still progressive 5-year old gelding.

It’s an easier race too, as he drops down to class 6. He’ll bottle the start as he always does but that’s not a problem as he can settle at the back and in should get a clear run in this small field.

Selection:
10pts win – Sir Jamie @ 9/2 PP

Wednesday Selections: August, 8th 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

4.10 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Papa Delta is clearly a difficult horse to train given he had a couple of lengthy spells on the sidelines but that makes this lightly raced Makfi gelding interesting in the context of this race.

After more than a year off he made an excellent reappearance at Chepstow last month finishing fourth without getting the clearest of runs in a race that looks fair form.

He steps up to 7f for the first time today. A trip he should stay on pedigree as being by Makfi and out of a 7f Group 3 placed mare. He couldn’t drift much further in the handicap mark, in fact this rating gives him a big chance. The negative is the drift in the betting already.

Selection:
10pts win – Papa Delta @ 9/1 Coral

Tuesday Selections: July, 10th 2018

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8.40 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

This is a brutal race quality wise. Gives the Daniel Kubler trained filly Chizz De Biz a tremendous chance to leave a recent disappointing run behind after she got off the mark here at Brighton so impressively in June.

That was over 6f in an equally quite poor contest. However, she showed excellent pace and won cosily in the end suggesting there is more to come. A drop to slightly shorter didn’t yield in improvement, however now stepping up to 7f only four pounds higher than her earlier success looks ideal.

Her pedigree offers hope to stay the extra mile. The way she ran up the hill the other day and the fact that fast ground will be a huge help mean she should enjoy this task going off the #1 draw as well, providing an opportunity to grab the rail being while being close to the pace.

Chizz De Biz is also the least exposed horse in the field who has achieved the highest lifetime time speed rating of anyone in the race also.

Selection:
10pts win – Chizz De Biz @ 4/1 PP

Monday Selections: June, 10th 2018

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Been a tough week. Finally a winner, though. Justanotherbottle (9/2) done that really nicely and won hands and heels his race at Nottingham in the end. That ends this week one a slightly more positive note.

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4.30 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Impart hasn’t won in 20 starts and clearly has gone backwards ever since running a huge race off an 89 rating in class 3 Chester Handicap twelve months ago.

Here and there some promising runs suggesting there might be a return to form around the corner. But mainly he’s been disappointing and fortunes haven’t changed since moving to a new yard.

He’s dropping to a new career lowest mark while also dropping in class and moving up to six furlongs. On anything near his old best he’d run away with this. He isn’t the horse of the past, however Impart looked very much improved at Lingfield last month.

He was about to find his second win and challenge at least for some place money entering the final furlong when the door seemed to shut in front of him at a crucial stage.

Impart was still not far beaten and appeared to be able to finish a good deal closer with a clear run. That run gave the indication he wouldn’t mind an additional furlong, so the step up to 6f off a low mark into a wide open race should give him a proper chance to get back to the winning ways.

Selection:
10pts win – Impart @ 15/2 PP

 

Friday Selections: June, 8th 2018

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3.40 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 10f

Top weight Palawan hasn’t fired in most of his last runs, ever since a strong runner-up performance in June of mark off 84 in a strong class 3 Handicap at Bath things didn’t work out for him. the winter. As a consequence he slipped dramatically in the mark.

A brief hint of return to form in February at Kempton, when coming agonizingly close a break a 2.5-year winless streak. Three poor runs later he moves yards, now going to post in the care of Jonathan Portman for the very first time.

One needs to put faith in the change of scenery helping Palawan to be revitalized. He also tries the 10f trip for only the second time in his career. Not unlikely on pedigree, particularly on fast ground.

On his best Palawan is obviously a main danger off 67, whether he still wants it remains to be seen. It’s a poor enough contest where I feel it’s worth a punt.

Selection:
10pts win – Palawan @ 11/1 PP

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4.50 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Novice Stakes, 8.5f

I don’t see why – with all we know at this point in time – there should be such a big difference in the betting between Move Swiftly and Elegiac. My preference is for the latter one.

A highly promising colt, who ran well on debut over 10f in a good race, followed-up at Newcastle dropping to a mile in excellent style.

This son of Farhh is open to plenty of progress and with Franny Norton retaining the ride with a good draw to go forward from, despite carrying a penalty, I feel Elegiac is a massive runner today.

Selection:
10pts win – Elegiac @ 9/2 PP

Tuesday Selections: May, 29th 2018

Leicester Racecourse

4.20 Leicester: Class 5 Handicap, 10f

Clive Cox’s Ghazan makes his handicap- and season debut today. He steps up to 10f for the first time as well. The colt showed a good deal of promise in three starts as a juvenile in the second half of last year.

Particular his final run, when 3rd in a Nottingham maiden looks particularly strong form. The race certainly worked out well.

With natural improvement likely to come for experience and the new trip, I feel a mark off 75 might underestimate him – granted Ghazan is ready to go today.

Selection:
10pts win – Ghazan @ 8/1 VC

…..

5.00 Redcar: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Rickyroadboy is in superb form since the start of the turf season. He won two and been in the money the other two starts, most recently a good fortnight ago in a big Thirsk handicap.

He looks like the sort still capable of progressing a bit further. He has the benefit of the 1 draw today which ensure pole position, as long as he starts, well which he usually does.

The ground is the only slight question mark. His wins came with cut in the ground, although his recent runner-up performance came on fast ground. Either way, Rickyroadboy is a clear favourite in my book.

Selection:
10pts win – Rickyroadboy @ 7/2 WH

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6.20 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Artic Sea is the only colt in a competitive race dominated by geldings and a few fillies. The fact connections haven’t decided to go down the most drastic route, means they must see something at home that make them belief he could still improve.

Fact is he is down to a lowly mark, only a pound higher than winning over a mile at Chepstow last May. He’s ran over further on plenty of occasions subsequently, so the drop to 7f is a gamble.

Ground should suit, though, and first time blinkers may eke out a bit of improvement. Expect Artic Sea to go from the front and use his stamina to hold off any challengers. Interesting this is the only runner saddled for trainer Paul Cole and the only ride for Raul da Silva today.

The combination of interesting track/trip/ground conditions, a fair looking mark and a small field possibly to be dominated from the front for a jockey/trainer combo that has had quite a bit of success in the past, I feel Artic Sea is a worthy favourite in this race.

Selection:
10pts win – Arctic Sea @ 4/1 Skybet

Tuesday Racing – May 24th 2017

With a laughing and a smiling eye news were perceived of the retirement of the well beloved grey gelding Sollow today. He hasn’t been seen on a racecourse for over a year now after sustaining a leg injury in spring 2016.

It appears that since his recovery he did not fully find back to his brilliant best in training and therefore the decision was made to send him off to a well deserved retirement.

Pierre-Yves Bureau, Racing Manager for the Wertheimer Brothers said today:

“The horse is well but is not quite at 100 per cent and we don’t want to take the slightest risk with him, so we have decided the prudent thing to do is to retire him.”

My personal highlight of Sollow’s career is his Dubai Turf win – his very first victory on the highest level. What a massive performance it was, beating reigning Irish Champions Stakes winner The Grey Gatsby effortlessly.

……

2.50 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 7 Furlongs

It might be wise not to judge Sixties Habana too harshly on what he has done on the All-Weather in recent months, though his last run at Kempton actually was eye-catching as the performance was better than the bare form would suggest.

A return to turf will definitely suit here, however. In three runs on turf he has been a 1.5l beaten third on debut where he achieved a RPR of 66 and followed up with a similarly good performance over 7f at Yarmouth when he got a first career win under his belt at the second time of asking

He was out of his depth the next time at Epsom in a big Handicap and then didn’t achieve anything of particular note on the All-Weather over the winter.

As a result his mark has dropped significantly now down to 55 and that makes him dangerously well handicapped on his return to the green grass over a trip, track and ground conditions very likely to suit.

The Phelan/Egan combo also has been quite successful in the last two seasons with a near 20% strike rate despite an average SP of their runners of 19/1!

Selection: 
10pts win – Sixties Habana @ 14/1 Bet365

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3.00 Nottingham: Class 5 Handicap, 2 Miles

Evens favourite Coeur de Lion is clearly the sexy horse in this race and there is a very fair chance that the four year old is well handicapped judged on his hurdle form in a race that looks for the taking.

That says I feel he is overvalued due his decent Triumph Hurdle run and fellow hurdler Dan Emmett is a better choice. He’s three years older, with more form in the book and may hold not as many secrets to the handicapper, however we have not seen him on the flat often in the last number of seasons.

Fact is his recent effort at Pontefract is one to draw a line through. The ground was unsuitably fast and the trip probably a bit too far. Return to 2m with cut in the ground will suit undoubtedly.

In flat races where the word soft appeared in the going description he’s achieved a win (off OR 60 by 12l) and two highly credible placed efforts in four starts. The three times in the money he ran to RPR’s of 79,75 and 76 respectively.

Given we haven’t seen allot of Dan Emmett on the flat lately it’s is a question mark whether he can run to this sort of form as also his last hurdle form looks questionable, however dropped to 66 in his flat rating he appears to have a very real chance to be well handicapped.

There is the added bonus of trainer and jockey going well at this track individually as well as together (limited sample size but 75% place strike rate).

Selection:
10pts win Dan Emmett @ 7/1 Bet365

Minding’s back with a Bang!

No surprise in the first Group 1 of the new flat season: Evens favourite Cloth Of Stars delivered the goods for Godolphin, Andre Fabre and Mickael Barzelona in the Prix Ganay.

Ridden patiently, Barzelona waited for the right moment to make the decisive move. Once in the clear the Son of Sea The Stars powered home strongly. A first success at the highest level for Cloth Of Stars.

But should it have been a first taste of Group 1 success for last years French Derby runner-up Zarak? Probably. Soumillon in the saddle had to sit and suffer at a crucial stage of the race while Zarak finished like a train eventually – unlucky!

No problems for Minding at Naas. She did it as easily as it gets in the Group 2 Mooresbridge Stakes and she clearly has not lost anything over the winter.

She made all from the front and the moment Ryan Moore gave her a little squeeze she stretched swiftly clear. Granted, she was shorts odds-on an clear on the ratings, but still on her return to win so easily is impressive.

Next stop on the agenda is the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Currag. The Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot are most likely the subsequent summer target.

Stable mate Johannes Vermeer finished last but got a very light ride with the future clearly in mind. I expect him to come on quite a bit for a run and would not lose hope in him yet.

…….

2.30 Brighton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

I look forward to see Equiano son Otomo return to the track as a three year old now dropping to six furlongs for the first time. He showed promise as a juvenile, was twice narrowly beaten here at Brighton, although over 7f, and ended the season with two more decent performances.

In all his races he showed plenty of early pace but did not quite get home, so he looks ready-made for sprinting. An opening mark of 67 seems reasonable, and any age- plus trip related improvement should see him run a big race.

It’s noteworthy that the Hide yard is in good form, with a fantastic record at this track and with Liam Keniry in the saddle. Also Equaino offspring tends to perform incredibly well at Brighton.

Selection:
10pts win – Otomo @ 6/1 Bet365

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4.20 Nottingham: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f

Well bred Secret Soul was relatively well fancied in her three career outings so far but despite two decent performances she never came close to win. However it’s fair to assume she simply needed the experience and now going handicapping with a pipe opener already under her belt she could improve.

She is fitted with first time visor as a reaction to her most recent fourth place at Kempton where tried to make all from the front. It may keeps her focused on the job when it really matters.

Given what she has achieved an opening mark of 68 seems slightly on the stiff side. However she ran in and around that level on RPR’s the last two times and clocked fair speed ratings too, so potentially she could be well in, if the combination of experience, race fitness, suitable trip and headgear sees her putting the best foot forward.

Selection:
10pts win – Secret Soul @10/1 Bet365

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6.30 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

If anywhere near full race fitness Brimham Rocks should be able to exploit his potentially very lenient opening mark here. His three maiden runs last year have been nothing of note but they were more of educational nature, over partly wrong ground and trips too short anyway.

H’s been a very late foal who’s sure to improve as a three year old once stepping up in trip, given this well bred son of Fastnet Rock is out of an Oaks trial places mare. So the 1m 4f trip should suit hands down.

Also Brimham Rocks’ sire has a 43% strike rate with offspring at Wolverhampton over this distance. All points toward that this lad is certainly well handicap on his handicap debut.

Selection:
10pts win – Brimham Rocks @ 5/2 Skybet

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9.10 Chelmsford: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 6f

I feel Addicted To You has a pretty good chance to follow up on a recent maiden success over 12f. At Lingfield this Medicean colt made all from the front. He got a bit idle in the closing stage which meant a closer from behind got a bit too close for comfort eventually, but overall it was a convincing win.

Now of a 75 rating he could still be undervalued even more so as he steps up in trip which should suit more than it is a problem. He’s got the profile to improve with age and according to sire stats the 1m 6f trip, particular around Chelmsford, should suit.

Given Addicted To You’s two sisters both achieved RPR’s of 80+ it is fair to assume that he can still find a bit to get off the mark in handicap company now.

Selection:
10pts win – Addicted To You @ 7/2 Bet365

Stat of the Day

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0 – Despite being one the top sires in producing winners in sprint handicaps at Brighton over the last number of years, Pastoral Pursuit is not quite enjoying a successful season with his offspring this year.

Zero winners at Brighton in total to this date this year, however a 100% place rate over six furlongs could mean hope isn’t lost yet, given he enjoyed a near 29% strike rate the seasons before.

Can he bounce back today? Two runners for him at Brighton: Pursuit Of Time the one I find most interesting. Dropped in trip significantly, with blinkers and tongue tie applied for the first time.

Monday Selections:

2.00 Brighton: Mystic Dawn @ 7/1 Racebets
2.30 Brighton: Pursuit Of Time @ 20/1 Ladbrokes