Tag Archives: All-Weather

Wednesday Selections – Kempton Park

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Boooom! Saumur get in – 16/1 SP – finally something to celebrate again. It has been a bit of a struggle in recent weeks as anyone knows who follows this blog. But those kind of winners are more than consolation. It could have been even better Dutiful Son did a really good job in the feature event, but just had a bit too much to do. A really interesting contest that was and I feel Windy Citi and Exchequer are the two to take out of the race as they didn’t have the clearest of passages.

7.40 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

It’s a poor enough contest and that may enable to weight Pretty Bubbles to overcome a big mark, but I’m surprised to see 3yo old Little Prairie available at 4/1 with StanJames, which surely is at least a full point too big. She didn’t run her race in tough conditions event at Leicester the last time – but that against much better opposition, not favoured by the weights at all – a performance to forgive.

She is better judged on her impressive maiden win at Lingfield. She romped home from the front that day. She got lose easily in a decent enough field. First time in a Handicap now, she can be capable of overcoming an opening mark off 81, particularly against this opposition here. Not saying she is a banker, but she is certainly the most likely winner and a big price for that.

Little Prairie @ 4/1 – 10pts Win

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8.10 Kempton: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

Yeager is a massive price here judged on his strong penultimate run. He’s on the same mark when finishing runner-up behind Fire Fighting. A form that works out really well. The drop to 1m shouldn’t really be a problem, neither should be the All-Weather. He has been runner-up in a hot race off a lb higher mark last year at Lingfield over 1m.

He hasn’t won since his days as a three year old and that is a concern. But he raced subsequently of mid 90 marks in very competitive races and has shown here and there some good form. He’s dangerous today I feel.

Yeager @ 20/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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Tuesday Selections – Kempton Park

Dundalk All-Weather

4.15 Kempton: Class 3 Handicap, 7f

This is an intriguing contest with a handful of promising contenders. Dramatically improving Ian’s Memory tops the market and despite not being flashy, he may just does enough to win and could still have more to offer. Though the handicappers doesn’t take any prisoners with him.

Exchequer loves the All-Weather and the track. He’s consistent. This big, scopey gelding should make good of a perfect draw. Claim The Roses ran a massive race the last time behind subsequent Great St Wilfrid Handicap Don’t Touch. I’m slightly concerned about his wide draw though.

Windy Citi won with bit in hand the other day, the drop in trip shouldn’t be a problem. Lightly raced Mulzamm will appreciate this trip more than 6f on pedigree. Whether he is good enough against this field remains to be seen.

Most of those mentioned above are decent prices. Hard to distinguish them. The one certainly overpriced is Dutiful Son, though. Well bred, impressive 6f winner at Chelmsford in April, he was not seen to best effect over 1m the last two starts. Way, way too far off the pace on his penultimate run, and also not in the best position the last time when third behind Windy City. The trip may also stretch him.

The drop to 7f looks ideal, however and I would assume him to be ridden much positive from a healthy draw. It’s Nicky Mackay’s only ride on the day – it could be a good one.

Dutiful Son @ 16/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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4.45 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

Melodica may well have too much to offer for this lot but it is such a poor race hat I feel it is worth to side with bottom weight Saumur who has the chance to improve for the new trip big time. She looked one-paced in her last two starts over 10f but did reasonably well considering the horses she competed against.

On pedigree she should really relish the 12f distance and won’t mind the All-Weather surface. It could bring out enough improvement to see her go close in this field off her light weight.

Saumur @ 12/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Manomine can score off handy mark

Iron Major

20.55 Chelmsford: Class 5 Handicap, 10f

The lucky last yet again? A pretty horrible race this is which leaves the chance open for either of the three generally lightly raced three year olds to improve to a level good enough to land this.

I go with proven “class” though. Manomine makes unusually big appeal in a race like this. The gelding had only two starts today and could better for those runs now. He also drops in class and has seen his handicap mark slipping to a handy enough rating off 67.

He has won off a bit higher in the past on the All-Weather and was placed off 71 in a good class 4 handicap last September. He’ll have to run to that sort of form today in order to see the three year olds and their weight advantage of, but I feel he can do it with a top jockey in the saddle. Track should suit him well.

Manomine @ 10/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Tuesday Selection: Chelmsford

Iron Major goes clear

Be Lucky was lucky yesterday at Pontefract. He won the race in a photo and ensured it was another day in profit – albeit a very small one. Byzantium was a non-runner.

7.25 Chelmsford: Conditions Stakes, 1m

Strange little race. Hard to know what to expect from any of these. There is hardly and positive form on offer, and the unknown factor of the Chelmsford polytrack is another point adding to the intrigue of this race.

By no means I can have the favourite here. Yes, Algaith is a 3yo and may have an advantage through weight for age but he hasn’t shown enough to warrant him backing at a short price, considering the trip may just too far him after all.

Maftool might enjoy the deep surface here. Hard to know whether he is in the same form as he was at Meydan earlier this year. He also has to give weight away, which is never easy for  3yo against older horses.

Hard to fancy Calling Out either. You have to hope for plenty of improvement. Castlelyons may surprise. But the value here is certainly Baltic Night, who has performed with credit on the All-Weather in the past, usually does well on a deeper surface on turf and has been mostly competitive this year. 1m can stretch his stamina, but this small field should play perfectly to his strength.

Baltic Night @ 7/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

Sunday Selections – Dundalk

Postulation
Postulation

3.10 Dundalk: Handicap. 6f

A really competitive sprint handicap on the Dundalk All-Weather with 107 rated Russian Soul topping the field. However not many seem to be well handicapped today. Certainly not the three top weights.

Progressive Have A Nice Day is a fair favourite, given he has been in splendid form lately and may still be on the upward. The drop in trip is against him though. Consistent Master Speaker has found a way to get his head in front this year. Can he do it again? I wouldn’t bet on it.

Togoville loves it on the All-Weather. The trip should be too sharp but off his current mark he has a chance if he could lead at a pace that suits him. Ger Lyons’ Trinity Force responded well to the change in trip and first time blinkers the last time. He can be competitive today again, although his trainer voiced slight concerns over the slow surface.

I’m most intrigued by old boy An Saighdiur who may have found a good opportunity to score. He certainly acts around here, is is a course specialist who’s best over 6f and while he didn’t set the world alight in recent weeks, he’s dropped to a dangerous mark. He was a good 3rd in a Naas Handicap earlier this year off an 8lb higher mark. So I feel he is overpriced today.

An Saighdiur @ 14/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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4.15 Dundalk: Handicap, 1m 2f 150y

Despite a wide draw and the drop in trip potentially not quite suitable, Botany Bay makes appeal to me big time. Forgive him his latest run, he is better judged on his penultimate start when winning a hot Handicap at Down Royal, which is extremely strong form given how it worked out subsequently. Botany Bay is still learning the game could have easily more offer from his current mark.

Botany Bay @ 8/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

Gelded Commodore can Improve big time

Kilimanjaro

8.10 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap ,7f

Tricky affair but freshly gelded Commodore could be the answer, despite a bad draw. He was unlucky not to win at Sandown on his penultimate start. Subsequently failed to deliver off his revised mark at Newmarket, though didn’t have the run of the race going for himself.

He can be better than that and now switched to the All-Weather should suit. Going against older horses shouldn’t be an issue but the weight for age allowance can make a huge difference in a race that lacks depth. He probably doesn’t need to improve allot to be in the shake-up, but the fact that sons of Kodiac often show dramatic improvements for being gelded, there is every chance he can be a big runner tonight.

Commodore @ 14/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

Light And Shade dangerous with headgear

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3.30 Wolverhampton: Class 4 Handicap, 9f

A very competitive little race – you could easily make a case for each and everyone. However from a price point of view Light And Shade is overpriced in my book. He’s potentially well exposed compare to others, but that says he has the right form in the book and is likely to run to his mark.

What is interesting though is the fact that he is fitted with cheek-pieces for the first time. He has has a tendency of hanging as well as carrying his head high. So in addition to a noseband, he’ll be fitted with CP today.

He won really well on his penultimate start, overcoming all these issues and he wasn’t disgraced at all when last seen. Not all too well positioned, he stayed on late and it is not out of this world that he is capable of doing better and finding more improvement with the headgear potentially having a big impact.

In that respect it is noteworthy that Aqlaam offspring usually does extremely well with cheek-pieces.

Light And Shade @ 7/1 Coral – 5pts Win