Tag Archives: Fillies

Betting

Friday Selections: October, 11th 2019

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Newmarket Rowley Mile False Rail

3.35 Newmarket: G1 Bet365 Fillies’ Mile, 1m

Intriguing contest, but possibly a weak one without a real star? For all what the market principles have achieved form wise, they haven’t run particularly fast yet.

Neither Love nor Cayenne Pepper have come near at least a 90 topspeed rating, despite having ample opportunity. You may give recent 9 lengths winner Quadrilateral the benefit of the doubt, though.

Nonetheless, I feel Powerful Breeze is underestimated in this field. The filly was supplemented after kicking her career off with two impressive runs. A winning debut over 7f here at Newmarket, followed up with an excellent Group 3 success at Doncaster.

That day she ran to a 92 topspeed rating, which is by far the best of what any filly has achieved in this field. There is no reason to doubt its legitimacy, as it was a well run race and Powerful Breeze improved nicely from her debut 87 TS performance.

She looks a filly open to plenty more improvement, being well bred, a March filly and by Iffraay. She gets the trip well, the ground is a slight question mark, given she hasn’t met cut in the ground yet.

I’ll give her the benefit of the doubt on that front, given her dam acted on soft, and Iffraay’s offspring tends to perform well enough also. Certainly if she can run here to the same sort of level – possibly even a little bit better – than in the May Hill this filly has a much better chance than the odds suggest.

Selection:
10pts win – Powerful Breeze @ 7/1 MB

Betting

Sunday Selections: August, 18th 2019

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3.30 Pontefract: Listed Fillies’ Stakes, 6f

Intriguing contest for the reasons of the strange track Pontefract is, with blurry ground conditions (good to soft, but a balmy day forecast) and certainly no standout performer in the field.

The 4/1 favourite Perfection isn’t quite as perfect as the name may suggest. A visor fitted for the first time shows she filly needs a little help to find some extra. She drops down to 6 furlongs, which shouldn’t be too much of an issue, and given she ran really well in higher class the last two times, she is well respected and sets a fair standard.

However, her best always came on faster ground, certainly judged on topspeed, and 6f at Ponti from a wide draw appears to be quite a tough test, while she also has to give weight away to her younger rivals today.

Shades Of Blue is an interesting alternative, if she can put her best foot forward over 6 furlongs. A wide draw makes life difficult, with a bit of cut in the ground also not sure to suit over this distance.

I reckon the progressive Princes Des Sables is a viable alternative at double figure prices. There are questions over the merit of her runaway victory at Haydock ten days ago. Which came after two disappointing efforts in June and July at this very venue when had a belated start to the season.

I think you can take that potentially as an excuse, that she needed the outings. Her Haydock performance produced a 90 topspeed rating, which is a believable improvement for age and experience on her previous 86 best, plus an RPR of 101. Judged on that she will have to improve again  a little bit to be fighting it out for the win today, but who says she can’t?

Still generally on the lightly raced side, only three starts this season, she gets perfect conditions with a bit of cut in the ground, 6f sure to suit, the track, despite her previous poor showings here, should suit, she has a perfect draw to attack which suits her usually aggressive racing style.

Her sire Monsieur Bond has a superb record at Pontefract, particularly over 6f, and the jockey/trainer combo is highly successful as well. Plenty to like about Princes Des Sables in this contest.

Selection:
10pts win – Princes Des Sables @ 11/1 MB

Betting

Thursday Selections: August, 8th 2019

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2.00 Haydock: Class 5 Fillies’ Handicap, 1m

With Classic Charm out this appears a wide open race with barely anyone appearing to be well handicapped. The one who have more to offer is Sootability, though.

The 3-year-old hasn’t shown anything of note this yer yet, but as an April foal by Camelot she may still find some improvement with time. The fact she also ran to a topspeed rating of 68 on her final start in 2018 shows there is a least a bit of hope also.

After four poor showings in 2019 Sootability has dropped to a 65 rating now, she also drops down to class 5 for the first time and back to a slightly shorter trip, which in combination may well turn out to be a magical combination – at least in the context of this race.

Selection:
10pts win – Sootability @ 10/1 MB

…….

4.40 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

If Admodum would find back to some sort of form he’ll be in with a massive shout. In fact, this looks like the ideal race: a poor field, he drops further in the mark down to 60 now, a good 5bl claimer in the saddle plus most importantly fast ground!

If appetite for the game is still there I’m pretty confident the ground conditions will make a massive difference. The last time Admodum raced on a fast surface he won.

Obviously on old form he is massively well handicapped. But it is a concern the poor efforts he showed for more than a year. Albeit over potentially trips stretching him or ground not quite as suitable. Second start off a break for the new yard today, while the market speaks favourably – big shout.

Selection:
10pts win – Admodum @ 13/2 MB

……….

7.35 Newcastle: Class 5 Fillies’ Handicap, 1m 4.5f

Soloist looks a possible improver for the switch to Tapeta as Camelot has quite a fine record on this surface, even more so with fillies. This 3-year-old also showed a bit of promise already when a good runner-up at Carlisle in June.

She ran to a topspeed rating 70 that day, so currently on 68 official rating, with potential to improve for the surface, as well a still being rather lightly raced, supports the notion that Soloist could be well handicapped today.

The drop in trip looks positive; only thing I worry about is the potential pace angle and that she may sit off the pace in a slowly run race. Otherwise there isn’t much to beat here and I suspect she is certainly better than a <70 mark.

Selection:
10pts win – Soloist @ 7/2 MB

Betting

Wednesday Selections: August, 7th 2019

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8.15 Yarmouth: Class 5 Fillies’ Handicap, 7f

Still a turf maiden, but down to really dangerous handicap mark is Roman Spinner. She is a three times winner on the All-Weather and also has been in the money four times on turf already, doing so of higher marks than her current official rating.

She also ran multiple times to relatively high topspeed ratings compared to current handicap mark, suggesting she is now knocking heavily on the door.

The same suggests Roman Spinner’s most recent performance, when runner-up in strong four-runner contest at Chepstow last month where she finished strongly but was probably not advantaged by the pace scenario.

She drops another pound, down to a rating of 71 now. Conditions are sure to suit and a big run is very much on the cards today.

Selection:
10pts win – Roman Spinner @ 7/1 MB

Betting

Sunday Selection: September, 2nd 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

4.00 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Lightening Dance and Double Reflection come into this in excellent form. Form that looks solid, also on the clock. So this is an ultra competitive fillies’ handicap, despite only a small field.

The one I feel that’s potentially underestimated is Last Enchantment. She won a shade cozily a 1m contest at Nottingham in May of a mark off 72, running to a RS rating of 75. She hasn’t been disgraced in higher grade and longer trips subsequently, so her last run in July was quite a surprising  disappointment.

She has a wind surgery since then and also dropped a couple of pounds in the mark to a sexy looking 73 – if the wind op does the trick for the Camelot filly.

Last Enchantment is bred for this trip and shouldn’t mind the ground either. Interestingly jockey Charles Bishop has generally a fine record if having only one mount on a given day, but it increased dramatically if that ride is at Brighton.

Selection:
10pts win – Last Enchantment @ 4/1 WH

Betting

Friday Selections – 10th November 2017

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

6.45 Newcastle: Class 4 Fillies’ Handicap, 6f

A race very much for the taking and favourite Cashla Bay should be very hard to beat from a perfect draw. That is if she can regain form shown previously to a abysmal performance in her last start, when finishing down the field.

However all other three life time starts were quite excellent efforts in the context of the race and how the form has worked out in the long term.

Cashla Bay achieved a time speed rating of 81 on her debut back in October last year, which suggested she is potentially smart, and with natural improvement surely better than her current rating of 80.

A tongue strap is fitted for the first time. That might be the key to unlock improvement. Certainly one thing is for sure: there is no excuse today.

Selection:
10pts win – Cashla Bay @ 9/4 Bet365

United Kingdom

Preview – Fred Darling Stakes

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I loved Tiggy Wiggy last year – a real speedball! One has to wonder though: Can she still improve? And does she actually stay beyond six furlongs? On pedigree I’d say probably no, she won’t last further than 6f. The visual impression of her races also clearly indicates that she is all speed – The 7f trip however is where stamina starts to kick in. Says, I feel on her seasonal reappearance over this trip she is opposable.

But who is the filly to beat her? The Kempton winner Jellicle Ball was very impressive on her debut. She may well be up for. Trip is probably fine, but I don’t really like her pedigree. The one that caught my eye is Redstart, though. Sh was unlucky on debut not to win when she was probably a bit surprised when the eventual winner cam late staying on out of nowhere. This form has been franked subsequently, so is one to take seriously.

She made amends with a dominant performance at Kempton subsequently. Probably not a particularly strong maiden, but she looked good. Redstart is entitled to improve a good bit now as a three year old, and probably she’ll be better over further in time. Ground is fine today, however, and she deserves a fair crack here. For a tasty price, I think she is the one who could take advantage if the hot favourite fades late.

Redstart @ 14/1 Sportingbet – 5pts win

South Africa

Gauteng Fillies Guineas

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This looks a much more open contest than the the boys’ Guineas in my mind, with moire unexposed runners and plenty of guesswork to do. However we have a very good favourite at the head of the market with Same Jurisdiction. She was a top class juvenile, won a big Grade 1 last summer and had an excellent prep last month in Grade 3 company. She rates a worthy favourite, though the downside is her rather poor draw and the fact that she had bleeding problems in the past. A lack of run at this track also counts as a negative. She deserves to be favourite, however is too short in the betting in my mind.

Progressive Smart Call was utterly impressive in her prep, though this here is much tougher today. If she can improve again, she is right up there with the best. So should be Sean Tarry’s Siren’s Call. A hardy filly, she finished a well respected 4th in the Dingaans and her prep win in a big sales race over shorter rates top form. If she stays the trip in a truly run race, she must be a big danger.

Never make the mistake to dismiss Turffontein top trainer Tarry’s second or even third string. His other runners Tamaanee and Bichette may be big prices in the betting today, but could spring easily a surprise. The former one the slightly more exposed already, has form over 1.600m and won against older. A good draw will help. She is an interesting price, though I restrict myself to one bet in this race and I’ve to admit that Bichette is the one that looks hugely overpriced here. She is very lightly raced, won over shorter a good handicap and performed well in her prep in Grade 3 company over 1.450m. She isn’t the quickest but is gutsy,very well bred and looks big with plenty of scope.

Her pedigree points to a mile and the step up to this trip will certainly suit her, so should the testing standside track. She has a good draw and will probably use this to race in a handy position as she prefers to do. She won’t go down with a fight I suspect and while it remains to be seen if she can make the step up into this hot top level company, she has the right looks, pedigree and progressive form. From a betting point of view, Bichette is the underestimated runner in this field.

Other fillies, like Grade 3 winner Sensible Lover or De Kock’s Pine Princess can’t be underestimated either. The fillies Guineas looks open, but very interesting and should provide spectacular action.

1.50 Turffontein: Gauteng Fillies Guineas (Grade 2)
Bichette @ 25/1 Ladbrokes – 5pts win