Tag Archives: Fibresand

Thursday Selections: October, 10th 2019

kempton

7.30 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Lightning Charlie has fallen to a career lowest handicap mark and looks poised for a big run with top jockey Jim Crowley booked for the job.

The 7-year-old isn’t the force of old, but now dropping to class 5, having dropped 15lb in his handicap mark since the beginning of the year, even though he has ran with credit in higher class a number of times this summer, returns to the All-Weather where’s posted six times in his career topspeed ratings of 70 and higher.

There’s still life in Lightning Charlie as he showed back in August at Brigton, when a fair 4th in a decent class 4 contest, not beaten fat that day. The latest Ascot effort in big field can be forgiven.

Selection:
10pts win – Lightning Charlie @ 11/2 MB

……..

7.45 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Hat-trick seeking favourite Queen Of Kalahari should go really well and has a big shout to make it three on the bounce, though from a wide draw he’s one to oppose at short odds.

Much more interesting, enjoying a much kinder draw, suitable to his racing style, is Poeta Brasileiro. He’s ran really well since changing yards to David Brown, in the money the last two times over sprinting trips off a similar mark, having a big chance today, given those last two races he ran to a 62 tospeed rating as well, suggesting he’s certainly weighted to go close today.

Back at Southwell where he’s been placed before over the shorter 5f trip, this is only his third start on the fibresand and that offers a bit of upside. His sire has a super record here, and as Poeta Brasileiro has already proven he can go well here, there’s no worries on that front.

The colt has ran to a career highest 65 topspeed rating on the All-Weather last winter also, suggesting with his current form, current handicap mark and a top draw to leverage he’s a massive chance today.

Seletion:
10pts win – Poeta Brasileiro @ 10/3 MB

Advertisements

Friday Selections: August, 9th 2019

Wet Dundalk Polytrack

Is it winter yet? A nice winner on Newcastle’s’s tapeta last night + the majority of my selections for today come from the Chelmsford polytrack! Who needs grass, anyway? Let’s rip the turf off the tracks and have a lovely fibresand surface everywhere…… alright, now I’m day dreaming, so let’s talk horses…..

…….

5.35 Haydock: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Who’s the least bad horse in this race? Tough question. One thing is certain: Springwood Drive is a silly price. I may eat my words in half an hour, saying that, but seriously, even though she has good form in the book, she also has work to do to show she is better than what she has shown so far.

Same goes for Sarasota Bay, dropping down to 5f, she at least has match her current OR in terms of TS, but the sharper trip is a worry for me.

Intriguing is the 4-year-old Red Allure. She has work to do against her younger rivals, but there is clear indication she is knocking heavily on the door now. This filly has been a little bit unlucky so to speak. She was heavily bumped at Doncaster when seemingly finding her second wind earlier this season plus a few issues in the starting gates didn’t make life easier.

However, her latest effort in better class is a clear standout piece of form. She showed pace despite having a few issues at the start again, and she showed a lovely attitude battling hard to the line. It seems cut in the ground is what she needs and she gets it today over same course and distance once more.

Red Allure ran to a 51 topspeed rating that day too. So now of an official rating of 50 with a 7lb claimer in the saddle she should go well today.

Selections:
10pts win – Red Allure @ 8/1 MB

……

7.30 Chelmsford: Class 3 Handicap, 5f

Tomily won three races in quick succession in July, until bombing out in soft ground in a very hot York handicap only three days after winning at Catterick. I think that is a piece of form to forgive.

Now back on the All-Weather and racing over the minimum trip, I feel Tomily remains of high interest and could potentially be well handicapped, in fact. That is down to the fact that he is down to his lowest All-Weather mark for quite some time. He may not quite be as good as he once was, but recent form suggests he remains a good horse, with appetite for the game.

Given Tomily  has ran to topspeed ratings of 87+ on six occasions on all surfaces throughout his career, most recently last months, it’s fair to assume, now down to an official rating of 87, he could have a bit in hand, if not enough to run to hid current mark will already be enough to win a race where little else appears to be well handicapped.

Having the added bonus of Jim Crowley in the saddle plus a good draw to operate from I feel he is overpriced in this field.

Selection:
10pts win – Tomily @ 6/1 MB

………

8.35 Curragh: Handicap, 1 Mile

With rain and wind lashing against the windows for the last few hours now with not let up to be expected any time soon, the ground at Curragh will be pretty soft come race time.

There aren’t that many really suited by conditions, nor appear many well handicapped. But this years Irish Lincoln runner-up Trading Point could fall into both categories. He’s has form on fast ground but crucially his career best came at Naas with plenty of cut in the ground this March.

He finished an excellent second in a race that has provided twelve winning performances subsequently. Trading Point hasn’t been able to kick on since then, but has raced in hot contests and was not disgraced when 5 lengths beaten at Galway most recently.

Down to a 87 mark, 2lb lower than in the Lincoln, plus he has already ran to a topspeed rating of 87 this year, now with top man Colin Keane in the saddle, there could be a big performance on the cards today.

Selection: 
10pts win- Trading Point @ 7/1 MB

………

9.10 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 2m

The worst for the last or the lucky last? This a shocking race. But that’s okay with me. I love them all equally. This one is intriguing to some extend though. Barca and Beau Night meet again after a recent tussle over the shorter 1m 6f trip. Barca should be the one who gets the better of the two this time round.

However, both will need to settle for minor placings because it’s the five-year-old gelding Lazarus who has a major shout tonight.

He’s been a winner at this track in the past, albeit over 10 furlongs. He has fallen steadily in his handicap rating, now below 50 which looks significant for his chances. Lazarus has been running to higher topspeed ratings in the past and his most recent effort at Nottingham over 1m 6f was a clear revival. He stayed on quite strongly, suggesting a step up to 2 miles will suit.

Given this longer trip and the switch to the All-Weather, a surface he tends to prefer a little bit more with his lowly mark, I feel Lazarus has a cracking chance to win this race.

Selection:
10pts win – Lazarus @ 14/1 MB

Sunday Selections: April, 21st 2019

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

Junoesque (5/1) was punted of the boards last night at Brighton – thankfully she emerged as the winner of the final race on the card – this time, unlike on Friday, it was the ‘lucky last’! That’s been two nice winners this week – all in for a hat-trick?

:::::::::

5.15 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Without a win in 17 starts, Captain Dion may finally found the ideal opportunity to get his head in front again. The grey changed yards earlier this year and ran with plenty of promise on his two starts since returning to the track.

A pipe opener at Newcastle over 7f, followed by a strong 3rd place finish in a competitive Handicap here over course and distance – that piece of form looks particularly strong as it has worked really well already.

It was a first run on Southwell’s fibresand that day, Captain Dion didn’t seem to mind it at all, in fact looks a sort likely to be pretty effective. The handicapper has been lenient, Captain Dion dropped another pound, down to 59. He’s also dropping down in class today.

There may a be a bit of improvement to come for Captain Dion’s second run on fibresand – his sire has quite an excellent record here. The jockey/trainer combo of 3lb laiming Gabriele Malune and Ivan Furtado is a strong one – it’s also Malune’s only ride today.

Selection:
10pts win – Captain Dion @ 6/1 MB

Thursday Selections: February, 21st 2019

DSC_1062

4.10 Southwell: Class 4 Handicap, 6 furlongs

Despite returning from a longer break, top weight Zylan looks an intriguing contender here given his excellent course record. The seven year old is four from five here and two from two over CD.

His last success came last summer of a 3lb lower mark. Effectively 5lb higher today, given the same apprentice is on board and claims two pound less these days. That was a strong effort though, giving the impression Zylan could still have a lot more to offer over CD.

Returning from a break is no red flag at all. His record fresh is quite excellent as he did the last two seasons over the minimum trip here at Southwell, when he won and was a fine runner-up respectively.

Selection:
10pts win – Zylan @ 7/1 MB

……..

5.20 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 5 furlongs

The favourite Gorgeous General looks hard to beat for obvious reasons, but in truth his record over the minimum trip isn’t that impressive to not take him on, particularly with a strong alternative.

Kyllukey has ran well on his return to the track first time out for the Wallis yard. He was fancied that day, so expected to perform. He now returns to Southwell, he’s only had a single start here a few years ago but seemingly took well to the fibresand.

He’s fallen significantly in the ratings over the last while, nonetheless he ran with credit more often than not. A race like this, that could suit, plus the additional aid of a fair 5lb claimer on board, should give him a prime chance today.

Selection:
10pts win – Kyllukey @ 6/1 MB

Thursday Selection: January, 10th 2019

DSC_1062

1.20 Southwell: Class 4 Handicap, 5 furlongs

Acclaim The Nation took to Southwell’s fibresand in the best possible fashion in his first try last month. He won pretty well over CD, looking comfortable, despite the tight margin. He backed up an excellent Chelmsford effort when going agonizingly close.

Southwell and its 5f trip can somewhat be a specialist situation – Acclaim The Nation looks to really enjoy this particular test and looks set for another big performance. Once again he has the aid of a perfect draw here, which should be a massive help for this pacey individual.

Only 2lb raised to a mark of 80 for the 77 TS & 87 RPR effort last time. There may well be a bit of improvement in him for his second fibresand start plus a smaller field to be dominated from pole position seem an ideal opportunity to go back-to-back.

Selection:
10pts win – Acclaim The Nation @ 7/2 PP

……..

2.25 Southwell: Class 4 Handicap, 6 furlongs

Black Salt is a skinny price for all he has done – an 8lb rise is quite something to deal with. I believe The Right Choice isn’t far behind the favourite ability wise. He’s ran a couple of really nice races on fibresand and could be able to pull out more.

His 6f success in a claimer looks pretty good as the runner-up, for all his faults, is something like a 70 rated individual. On that form, it was no surprise to see The Right Choice finish a strong 3rd next time out, only tiring in the final furlong over potentially too long 7f behind a well handicapped winner.

A return to 6f should suit, if he doesn’t blow the start. He has the aid of a good draw, so hopefully on what is only his fourth start here, he can make use of it.

Selection:
10pts win – The Right Choice @ 11/1 MB

Thursday Selections: January, 3rd 2019

dsc_0292

A perfect start to 2019: Paparazzi delivered in style the first winner of the new year @ 12/1! It remained the only winner on the night, as Athollblair Boy ran a competitive race finishing third while Admiral Rooke didn’t last the pace.

I’ll have a full roundup of the 2018 betting year up over the weekend, similar to the on from last season.

…….

2.00 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6 furlongs

For the low grade this is, this is quite a competitive race. The favourite looks sue to go well to follow-up on his recent success and you can easily argue a handful of these have a chance on their best to go close.

The one I like most on handicap debut is Point Zero. This lad is still winless after 13 career starts, however went close on multiple occasions, looking sure to win over course and distance this winter approaching the final furlong, just to be picked up late.

He clearly has an issue to finish his races, but some was also down to the fact he went off way too fast in the early parts of his races. Dropped to the minimum trip lately didn’t work to counteract this.

Point Zero looks a 6f horse to me. Ridden a bit more sensible early on and he could have enough left in the tank when it matters. Collateral form of his best 6f efforts suggest a mark of 67 is fair – in fact I believe, he could be a bit better than that.

The draw isn’t a huge help today, and he had a lot of racing lately, most notably only 3 days ago here over 5f – but he clearly goes well over this CD and could be well in at this grade if things worked out the way I imagine they can.

Selection:
10pts win – Point Zero @ 6/1 MB

…….

5.20 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap, 1 mile

The lightly raced favourite Holy Heart is sexy and could prove too good of his opening mark. However, it’s hard to judge what his recent win is worth, as the form has been franked subsequently but looked bad on the clock.

Proven class is 8-year-old Lacan. He appears to be as good as ever, certainly running to of 80 in all his recent starts, even though without quite finding enough to get over the line.

The handicapper drops him to 78 now. Not a lot but potentially enough: Lacan was a CD scorer off 82 in Spring last year. A big run seems to be expected: job jockey Rossa Ryan comes here for this one ride only.

Selection:
10pts win – Lacan @ 7/1 MB

Friday Selections: November, 30th 2018

DSC_1062

11.20 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 5 furlongs

Less than a handful of horses appear to be in with a shout here – Decision Maker is one of them – if he is ready to go after a break and his breathing won’t prevent him from finishing strongly.

That clearly been an issue in the past, as tongue tie and wind surgeries suggest. He’s been off since June after a poor showing on turf. A 3l beaten 6th at Nottingham prior, though, looks pretty strong form, so do some of his placed efforts here at Southwell in early 2018.

Decision Maker drops to a handy mark, that should see him being potentially well handicapped. Blinkers first time fitted is interesting; a decent draw should help too.

Selection:
10pts win – Decision Maker @ 17/2 MB

…….

3.15 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1 mile

A fortnight ago I wrote about Sooqaan as he was about to run in a similar type race:

“Reasons why I like this lad allot are plenty; a simple reason why I’m wondering is: there is fair chance this isn’t the race to let the handbreak off. 

Sooqaan is handicapped to win on his best form. He won off 64 over course and distance earlier this year. However, he was on a roll at that time, completing a hat-trick, kicking it off wit a CD success of a mark of 54. So I can see why connections would want to lower his current rating a bit, still.

On the other hand Sooqaan could find an excellent chance to score, despite the competitive nature of the race. 

The fact that is: in class 6 over this course and distance he is 4 from 4! So, it looks significant that he drops down to this grade for the first time since he last win, coming back the his happy hunting ground all the while.” 

That still holds true. Sooqaan didn’t go close that day, but it was a fair enough performance. He’s now 3lb lighter, which is an added bonus, as surely that makes him a well handicapped horse today.

An additional 3lb claim by the competent apprentice in the saddle, in a less competitive race and a decent draw to start from – Sooqaan should have a massive chance today.

Selection: 
10pts win – Sooqaan @ 17/2 MB