I have been waiting for The Muffin Man to step up to a mile and he finally does it here, in a seriously poor race, that doesn’t take much for winning it.
The 3-year-old gelding showed some promise this season already, despite an 0/9 record. I wouldn’t give him any more chances, though. This should be his day to shine.
He drops down to a 49 handicap mark, 9 and 7 lb respectively lower than two eye-catching efforts back in May and June. Also his last run was better than the bare result suggested, given there were some solidly handicapped runners in the race, very much so the eventual winner.
He looked a bit sharper early on in the cheek pieces, although, maybe a bit too sharp for his own good. They are off today. The #5 draw is a positive, as long as he isn’t slowly away and gets too far behind as a consequence.
That may happen and seal his fate early on. But he was away well enough when last seen, so here’s hoping. Ben Sanderson claims valuable 3lb – with that in mind, if allowed to run on merit the gelding should be seriously well-handicapped now.
10pts win – The Muffin Man @ 12.5/1
………..
6.07 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
A hugely frustrating and inconsistent sort, Glorious Rio is one not to trust. However, he showed signs of life multiple times this year, and now returns on turf to the minimum trip, on ground that hopefully doesn’t get too soft.
He pulled hard at Newcastle last time over 6 furlongs but ran well in the circumstances, as he’s done a number of times when somewhat unfortunate not getting the best of runs.
He dropped to a seriously dangerous mark now, down to 60; Glorious Rio won 4 times of similar or higher ratings on multiple surfaces and ground conditions, mostly over the minimum trip and also off big weights.
The #11 could be ideal, as it should lead him nicely into the finish, following those that are setting pace against the stands’ side.
Slight concerns over the weather forecast: I hope it’s only going to be one or two small showers, and no more. I don’t think he wants it proper soft conditions.
His very best came on fast ground. Although, he won on good to soft last summer. So the way it should ride given the current forecast will be fine.
10pts win – Glorious Rio @15/2
……
8.07 Ayr: Class 5 Handicap, 7f
The drop in trip in combination with a drop in class will really suit He’s a Gentleman who didn’t get home the last two times over a mile. He ran with plenty of credit, nonetheless, especially last time out when only beaten late.
He can race off the same mark here, which gives him the opportunity to run in this 0-70 contest where he should find life a little bit easier than most of the time this year so far.
The recent run is a clear return to form, suggesting he’s not far off the excellent form he showed last year when also running to speed ratings in the 70s.
If he can follow-up, with the pace scenario possibly suiting him too, he could prove a step above the rest in this field.
Muy Muy Guapo drops in class and trip. Hopefully the sign that the handbrake is off. If it is, I do believe this lad could go on a streak and win two or three on the bounce.
He was a massive eyecatcher back In February as he returned from a break for a new yard. He travelled so sweetly, and was able to answer all the accelerations from the leading bunch so easily – horses in this grade don’t do that often, normally.
He’s still a colt – although hardly a stallion prospect – and cost £115k as a yearling. So there must be some talent, as visual evidence suggests as well.
He wasn’t expected in his last runs but once again caught the eye when last seen at Newmarket. He was drawn away from the pace and raced away from where the race developed. He had no chance from there and was ridden in a way to ensure he wouldn’t show too much, either.
Nonetheless, he made some nice progress from halfway through the race, and finished, without ever being properly asked, the fourth fastest home over the last three furlongs.
He drops down to class 6, also down to 6 furlongs, which I feel is possibly his optimum trip. He can start awkwardly and that is a risk, especially from the #5 gate at Salisbury. He may be trapped if he doesn’t get away well.
I’m prepared to take the risk as he’s more likely to be very well handicapped off 66, I believe.
10pts win – Muy Muy Guapo @ 13/2
………
5.50 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 1m
Revoquable is in tremendous form but can be his own worst enemy as he’s not a smart starter. Nonetheless, each of his last runs was noteworthy and better than the bare form.
He was bumped early the last time at Redcar and didn’t seem to travel too well subsequently, yet showed a great acceleration mid-race and ran on well to finish a fine 4th and ran to a 51 speed rating.
Wide draws and the way the races developed didn’t help in preceding runs, nonetheless, at Thirsk, when a strong runner-up, he showed a lot of adversity as he finished best, and achieved an fine 54 speed rating.
The fact that he confirmed the strong impression of his eyecatching February run at Southwell multiple times subsequently suggests to me he’s ready to win and overpriced here.
A good draw, not an overly hot pace expected and fast ground could be ideal for him over a mile in a very winnable race. He looks well-handicapped here off 54.
A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous eyecatchers here.
Lil Guff 22/05/23 – 5.00 Windsor:
Settled in rear against the inside rail, before gradually moving over to the other side, travelling well, but not getting a run through over one furlong out, when she tried to progress on the widest outside, with a shifting rival not helping to get clear passage there either.
Finished a fine 3rd. Fast ground, minimum trip not ideal. All best career performances over 6 furlongs, and enjoys less lively ground too. Down to a good mark, won off 76 and 82 last summer.
A 76 speed rating here and 79 speed rating in April suggest she’s in the same form now. Ideally want to see her up in trip, though.
Travelled really well in his group. Fine progress from halfway through and won his group comfortably. Couldn’t catch the winner who travelled alone on the far side.
Ran the best finishing speed. Clearly in good form and on solid mark off 80 having ran to 80 and 83 speed rating last year. Better over 6f on fast ground. Didn’t have that yet this year.
Set hot pace from the front and travelled strongly until getting quite tired from over 1f out to finish 4th eventually as he’s getting swamped late. Should be good form.
Down to fine mark. In good form. Best with ease in the ground, hence this run warrants an upgrade, but is competitive on fast too, and continues to drop a seriously intriguing mark in any case.
Sluggish start, recovered and went forward to lead at a red hot pace. Found plenty under pressure and only late beaten by two from off the pace.
Good speed rating, which is believable. Ran to near similar speed rating a month earlier on the All-Weather. Definitely in good form but has issues and the hood didn’t seem to help. Would stay a mile if he could settle.
Jury is out how much he’s got in hand these days, but worth another try over 7 furlongs as he has been dropped 2lb by the handicapper for this fine effort.
Pushed a hot pace from the front as part of a duo. Kept fighting well to the line under pressure and nearly held on fending off all challengers bar the winner who came from off the pace.
Huge run. 1st tongue tie, responded well here as well for the decent ground. Deserves a chance in these circumstances again. Won off 73 last autumn in fine style and achieved 77 speed rating.
Was disappointing next time. However was a drifter on the day in the betting, never seemed to travel too well and maybe just doesn’t like ground that fast.
Caught seriously wide from #14 draw. Did a lot to cross over and get into a position where she tracked the hot pace. Some progress in the home straight before getting tired and also hampered 1f out.
Ran better than bare form lto on Handicap debut as well. Not ridden with intend to obtain best result last two times. The game is in the name…. down to 50 now interesting, if handbrake is off, especially with any support in the betting.
Travelled like a dream in midfield, well covered. Came through strongly, hard on the bridle, going through a gap over 2 furlongs out. Was eventually outkicked and not had the speed to go with the winner but ran on well.
Has the pedigree to improve beyond six furlongs. Will be of serious interest up in trip if she can settle. Has won and ran well over sprint trips already. The way she travelles suggests there’s talent better than a 78 OR.
Forced to settle off the pace the way the race developed. Was going well but had to wait for room as no gap opened late. Finished best in the final furlong.
Clear return to form after some lesser efforts on the All-Weather. Did well on the sand during winter, though. Down to sexy mark and not out of it on turf either, despite 0/5 record. Never expected in those runs but clearly handles fast ground.
Quickly restraint in rear of the field against the inside rail. Was going pretty well but progress stopped as he was stuck behind a wall of horses, short of room and hampered from two furlongs until late before in the clear inside the final furlong and finished nicely.
Only slowly drops in the mark. Effective over a variety of sprint trips and acts on nearly all ground. Not tremendously well-handicapped but placed off higher and may not be far off a big run if allowed to run on merit.
Swerved to his left out of the gate then settled in midfield. Travelled strongly on the bridle over 2f out behind horses but had to wait for room and switch to the inside for a run. Finished best.
Started the first two furlongs & finished the final furlong faster than the the first two home (fastest final furlong). May not truly stay 1m and would ideally drop to 7f. Lightly raced, good speed rating here as well.
Tracked the pace against the inside rail for most of the race until the two groups merged. He found himself shot of room multiple times and only late was able to get properly into the clear to finish strongly.
Strong form. Ran to 80 speed rating. Seemed to enjoy the decent ground and has responded for blinkers the last two. Showed promise as a juvenile. Clearly better than what he has shown up to now.
If he’s kept in handicap company he’ll be well-handicapped. Move up in trip is certainly preferable.
Travelled in midfield, not going smoothly, niggled along, possibly found the pace over 7f on fastish ground too hot. Kept going well, though. Not clear run over 2f out and slightly hampered over 1f out.
Handicap debut and should be better than this. Decent speed rating. Should move up in trip again and dangerous off 87 on decent ground.
His chances were compromised from the wide draw. He didn’t get in to find cover and as a consequence always travelled three wide, mostly without cover, off the pace. Travelled well and made good progress from over 3f out before getting tired in the final furlong.
May not quite stay a mile. 7f most likely ideal. Impressive win as a juvenile. High enough mark but deserves chance over 7f. He usually can go forward. Deserves chance in easier race.
Huge disadvantage the low draw that day. In rear early on, before excellent progress from three furlong out on the far side. Did well to run so well for so long.
Better over 6f, ideally with decent to fast ground. One who needs things to fall right but ran solid last season still and could be underestimated in the right race.
Widest draw away from the inside rail huge disadvantage. Bumped after the start. Was going okay but short of room over 2f out. Disaster run. Ran on well prior on his handicap debut as well.
Could be better than this. May prefer ease in the ground and/or could enjoy an additional furlong as he doesn’t seem to have the speed for fast 6f. Down to 72 intriguing.
Off to a good start, tracked pace keenly early on. Travelled well enough before he became a bit flat footed over 2 furlongs out as the sedate pace increased. Lost ground but stamina kicked in and he flew home the final furlong.
Could enjoy moving up in trip if the pace is solid. Smart prospect and may be underestimated because his profile isn’t that sexy, especially after his Dubai flop.
Flew down the first half of the race, was over a full second faster to the 3f marker than the eventual winner. Gradually tired but was game to the line.
Bumped into a well-handicapped one on seasonal reappearance lto. Can get home but more often than not 7f is a stretch, probably best over 6f. down to solid mark and clearly in form a pound below his last winning mark.
Moved quickly forward from wider than ideal draw and travelled very wide before moving across to lead. Was going well for long and showed good attitude late as well.
Best over 5f. Down to intriguing mark. Ran well over minimum trip on fast ground last year. Didn’t get the best of luck on the AW lately but finished well, especially last time at Southwell.
Quick start, led from the front as part of duo. Travelled strongly approaching 2f out before he came under severe pressure. beaten by winner from off the pace.
Still a maiden but ran twice 62+ speed ratings. may not stay 7f unless gifted a soft lead. drop to 6f really interesting off career-lowest mark.
Set off very fast, going sprinter pace the first few furlongs, as part of a duo. Kept going well, still ahead 1f out, swamped late. huge run and return to form. down to sexy mark, judged on last season.
Should be strong form. Winner was well-handicapped. Would be most interesting for drop to 7f, even though he stays further, a mile with little pace competition could also be interesting.
Right up with the pace, lead early then chased it. Seemingly going backwards from 2f out but kept on well. Bumped slightly over 1f out and squeezed. Hot race and strong form most likely.
Should find an easier one and can win and may improve with experience still. May also be able to drop to 6f.
Set strong pace from the front. Had the field on the stretch halfway out. Kicked clear and only late beaten by very well-handicapped horse.
May go up a couple of pounds but ran 66 speed rating here and 67 in the past. Clearly best on decent ground, and could go well in the right race of revised mark still in right conditions.
Bumped at the start, settled in rear, made some good progress travelling well from over 3f out on the outside of the field. Impeded 2f out, ran home solid enough.
Looks a big horse. May needed the run still. Still lightly raced, handicap debut and worth to watch out for over 7f-1m on decent ground. Full-sister achieved nothing, so not too many chances given.
Dwelt, keen in rear, seemed difficult to steer and went very wide. great progress and finished second on the line despite jockey tried to pull up early.
Dropped another couple of pounds in the meantime. Run better last few runs than bare form. Still a maiden but could cherry ripe potentially. Entry next week at Haydock intriguing.
Dwelt from wide draw, rushed forward on outside before crossing over to lead the field. Was going well and seriously gutsy to stay in front for as long as he did.
Career best speed rating. clearly back in form. Not on to trust to follow-up, but worth to check if he drops to 7f again as the additional half furlong may have been a bit too far here.
Tracked the pace on far side, quite prominently ridden. Travelled well to 2f out but couldn’t quite keep up the effort in the closing stages. Did best of those low drawn, which is often a disadvantage over this CD.
Career-best on speed ratings, as low as that is. 7f on fast ground ideal and interesting in a similarly poor race when she has a good draw.
Dwelt and awkward out of the gate. Settled in midfield, bumped into rival before the first turn. Made progress and found a route through to challenge, though the winner was long gone. Ran on well.
Confirmed lto promise. Down to fine mark. Best on decent ground (ideally no worse than yielding), so could be intriguing on a more conventional track if the dry spell continues. However, can have issues at the gate.
Travelled seriously well on the far side, covered up behind the pace. Pulled out over 2f out and kicked on well to lead, before late beaten by horse on the stands’ side.
Well handicapped on last-years form. Clearly back in form as he showed some promise at Catterick prior too.
He enjoys decent ground and should remain dangerous even with a small hike in the ratings.
A finish dominated by those ridden with restraint. Which was somewhat surprising, because they didn’t go too hard in the first half of the race, with a finishing speed of 116% for the winner, Auguste Rodin (the par for the Derby distance at Epsom is around 111%) not quite telling the tale, perhaps.
King Of Steel raced the closest to the pace from those who made any impact in the closing stages. He travelled pretty well in midfield and kicked on strongly from over 3f out, before being outstayed in the final furlong by the Aiden O’Brien trained colt.
White Birch came from very far back and made great progress on the outside in the home straight. He’s an obvious eyecatcher in that sense. However, there a couple of others who interest me more for the future.
Sprewell is probably the one who left the biggest impression on me. I was certainly not overly keen on him beforehand, but he certainly confirmed his huge talent in the Derby.
It was his fifth career start, but the first time going over the Derby trip. He looked still a bit keen and perhaps green at various stages of the race, hence the fact he finished so well in 4th, without ever appearing with a shot of winning, truth told, is noteworthy.
He found himself short of room at a crucial stage of the race over 2.5f out, though. Subsequently he got badly unbalanced, yet found his momentum quickly again and ran on before his stamina ran out in the final furlong.
Fast ground clearly wasn’t an issue. But the Derby trip may stretch his stamina, especially in a properly run race. However, he has shown his class over 10 furlongs already. That looks his trip. He’s one I’ll track.
Waipiro endured a disaster run. he dwelt, was then caught behind a wall of horses, trailed the field and had to come around wide for a run.
He made excellent progress from 4f out around Tattenham Corner, before his effort fizzled out from 2f out. He probably didn’t get the trip. Though, I thought the confirmed the promise he showed at Newmarket and at Lingfield.
Whether he’s a genuine Group 1 horse remains to be seen. He could be underestimated if he drops down to 10 furlongs, though.
Artistic Star ran a race of two halves, so to speak. Initially I was disappointed with his run. I backed him, and thought he would do much better than a 11 lengths beaten 7th place.
However, he ran a race full of promise. After a solid start he didn’t travel well, niggled at various stages. Perhaps inexperience in such a big, tight field was to blame.
Three furlongs from home he was relegated to last even, before the penny seemed to drop and he motored home in the 4rd fastest final 3f split to pass many tired horses.
He’ll have learned plenty and remains at this stage an exciting prospect after two excellent career performances prior where he ran strong speed ratings for an inexperienced horse.
Whether he’s Group 1 class remains to be seen. His siblings were smart horses but not quite top-notchers. He looks to stay the Derby distance, much like they did, though.
Gutsy Eponina at Nottingham. She made all and kept going and going to win well (5/1 SP). After drawing a blank on Saturday this was needed. Unfortunately there was no additional winner to be added on Sunday.
Greatgadian was beaten by the draw. No chance from his position as he settled at the back of the field and had to quicken from well off the pace in a sprint finish. A great effort to finish 3rd, though.
Continuous was a major disappointment in the Prix Du Jockey Club. He didn’t have any excuses, though. He was in a good position, got there easily and simply wasn’t good enough on the day.
A good first June week. Three winners. Too good to be true? On to Monday… I’m always am nervous when having so many bets in a single day as on this Monday. But they were all significant eyecatchers and appear overpriced.
If one goes in all is well, happy days. If they all get beaten, a realistic prospect, it’s getting ugly quickly. Joy and despair are can be separated by inches in this game.
…..
4.00 Thirsk: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Hail Sezer was a huge eyecatcher last time out and hasn’t been too harshly penalised for a nose beaten 2nd place. He’s clearly in fine form and should run a huge race.
At prices I must go with Late Arrival, though, who caught the eye the last time at Pontefract, as he followed on from a hugely encouraging seasonal reappearance at Haydock.
Ten days ago at Pontefract over 5 furlongs he had a quick start, tracked the pace but came under pressure from over 2f out and seemed to go backwards before coming back and staying well to the line.
Another strong performance and form behind a very strong winner. He’s better over 6 furlongs, though, especially on fast ground.
Therefore moving back up in trip, while dropping into an easier grade, he’s dangerous after having been eased another pound. He ran to 70 and 71 speed ratings last season and looks in similar form, clearly ready for another big performance off 69.
10pts win – Late Arrival 15/2
…………
4.15 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
Stay Smart ran a huge race on Saturday at Musselburgh. He was bumped at the start quite badly, and had to play catch-up as a consequence. He travelled wide on the outside where he made tremendous progress to challenge the leader, but understandably tired in the final furlong to fall back.
He confirmed the promise shown over this course and distance last month when he raced from the front and also achieved a good speed rating, the best in over 1.5 years. That performance warranted an upgrade too, in my book:
He moved quickly forward and led the field at a good pace. He travelled well and found plenty for pressure from 2f out. Ultimately he was only beaten inside the final furlong by two ridden with more restraint.
Stay Smart had a tough time since losing his form in early 2022. He changed yards, tumbled down the weights and has been gelded and had a wind operation. He appears to be in excellent shape now, though, and looks the one to beat with a clear run.
10pts win – Stay Smart @ 7/2
…..
4.30 Thirsk: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f
Obviously Lady Rascal is of interest as she moves up in trip. 1m 4f will suit her really well. She got off the mark in fine style over ten furlongs recently after a strong handicap debut.
She is one of my Handicappers to follow this year, but so is Folk Star. Lady Rascal could be well-handicapped today, yet on prices Folk Star makes plenty of appeal (for the moment, money is coming already) as she makes her handicap debut and moves up right away to the correct trip for her.
She had two lovely runs of educational matter as a juvenile where she looked much better than the bare results. She was never asked a question, yet finished nicely, especially at Yarmouth.
Her seasonal reappearance in April over a mile in deep ground can be safely ignored form wise. The 1m trip, also possibly ground was not right and it counted simply as a pipe opener. With that she qualified for a mark off 64 and that could underestimate her as she moves up significantly in trip.
Folk Star is a May foal and has plenty of scope to improve, especially as she moves up in distance. She’s beautifully bred, with plenty of stamina on dam side; the mare improved with time as well.
Le Have offspring improves with age too. His 3yo’s have a 21% strike rate overall (A/E 1.2) in Handicaps. Not sure whether the track and fast ground will suit, but let’s find out.
10pts win – Folk Star @ 4/1
……..
5.45 Windsor: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Big R is the one to beat. Most likely I wasn’t the only one who wanted to hit something really hard after he finished a desperately unlucky second last Saturday.
He’s only 1lb higher and has a massive shout. Again, at given prices, it’s another eyecatcher I’ll side with, though.
My Mate Mike moved quickly forward to lead at Salisbury when last seen as he dropped down to 6 furlongs. He showed solid early speed and clearly did too much in the first half of the race. I thought he did really well to hold on for third.
That was a strong race and form for the level of race. There were multiple lto winners and horses in strong form in the field.
As he gets another chance over 6 furlongs here having been dropped 1lb as well I feel this lightly raced gelding could be underestimated.
10pts win – My Mate Mike @ 9/1
…….
7.30 Wolverhampton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
Hot and competitive race with a solid pace certain. You can make a case for many, though, off 81 Cuban Breeze appears tremendously well-handicapped, especially as she ran pretty well when last see at Windsor.
She made too much there from the front in deep conditions but confirmed some of the positive signs he showed in most of her more recent runs.
She drops down to class 4 and lost another 2lb, with that she 4lb lower than her last winning mark, albeit that came on turf. Cuban Breeze is as good on the All-Weather, though.
She enjoys this course and distance, although perhaps 6 furlongs is the absolute maximum of her stamina. That’s a worry in a fast race here.
On the other hand, I feel from her #3 draw, despite plenty of potential pace pressure, her early speed could see her establish a lead and she could go all the way then.
A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous lists here.
Serious Look 25/04/23 – 4.45 Epsom:
Moved forward quickly to lead travelling wide. Was going strongly approaching the home straight, though gradually tired and fell away in the last two furlongs.
Paid for early exertions, doing too much in deep ground, as those ahead of him in the end were ridden with more restraint.
Travelles well. May found 9f in heavy ground beyond his stamina. A mile in soft ground should be fine, though, so is 7f with plenty of cut in the ground. He seems to hit the ground quite hard.
Settled in rear of the field. Travelled strongly, on the bridle as he approached the home straight but went widest and lost ground. Really strong finish. Good form.
Unlucky lto when also a strong run, confirmed here that he’s absolutely ready to strike. Can make a mess at the gate, though.
Would be most intrigued over 5f on turf again. Ran good speed ratings last season, and another 2lb down now, most likely seriously well-handicapped.
Widest draw was probably a disadvantage as was travelling on the stands’ side. Made strong progress from 3f out against stands’ rail and finished best of that group.
Huge run in circumstances, confirmed strong AW form, also was a bit unlucky lto. Looks on a possibly lenient turf mark in the right conditions, compared to AW as he’s not 10lb worse judged on speed ratings.
He prefers better ground to be seen to best effect. Didn’t enjoyed these conditions this season yet. Does stay 6f but probably best over shorter.
Moved quickly forward and crossed over the the far rail. Led the field, but pressured all the way. battled solidly before fading badly in the final furlong.
Softish ground far from ideal. He’s a different horse on better ground, ideally fast. Ran twice to 78 speed rating off a 77 mark last summer.
Down to a super mark now and after two solid runs under his belt this year, should be a big runner in the right conditions soon.
Grabbed the lead, largely uncontested, was going well entering the home straight. Eventually beaten by those from off the pace. Decent run.
Can ignore next time in class 2. Tricky sort but clearly still with an appetite for the game. Slowly drops to fair mark again. Won off 80 back in December.
Ran twice to speed rating 84+ last year on turf over 7 furlongs. With decent ground should be interesting, especially if he could dominate.
Travelled supremely well from the front and had entire field well on the stretch from 3f out. Tired badly in the final furlong and eventually reeled in by two from off the pace.
Huge seasonal reappearance. Was placed off similar mark last year. Quite experienced and unlikely to have much scope. May find it tough to back up this effort if turned out quickly.
Superb front-running effort. Kicked on from over 2f out and looked the winner until swamped late in the day. Ran to 69 speed rating here, strong form.
Ran multiple times to mid-60 speed ratings and higher. Improved nicely from seasonal debut. Probably best over minimum trip with cut in the ground but 6f on better ground no issue either. Versatile.
Badly bumped and squeezed out of the gate by two rivals, trailed as a consequence. Wall of horses in front and had to switch wide to the far side, giving ground and momentum away. Came through well from over 1f out.
Strong run in circumstances. Ran with credit on the All-Weather this year before. Comes down to solid mark. Not tons in hand but ran to 68, 69 and 71 speed ratings since August last year.
Any additional help from the handicapper will bue valuable. He’s better over the minimum trip, and prefers decent ground. Not disgraced at Newcastle on Tuesday off 69.
Travelled quite well on stands’ side, which was potentially not ideal being high drawn in this race, as was away from where the pace developed. Travelled strongly to 2f out before effort petered out.
Reportedly made a respiratory noise afterwards, that may explain the tame finish, although he wasn’t advantaged by the way the race developed in any way.
Small risk whether all is fine with him, but in any case another 2lb down and well-handicapped now. Ran solid on the All-Weather before, somewhat unfortunate. Achieved speed ratings last season that will give him a huge chance wherever he goes, if healthy.
Moved forward from #9 draw to closely follow the pace. Pressed the leader from 3f out and couple of lengths ahead before swamped. Accepted challenge and stuck strongly to the task to hold on for 2nd place.
Strong run and speed rating only 2lb shy of current mark, which was left untouched. Given great opportunity if he can find a handicap over a mile in proper soft ground as still somewhat unexposed in these conditions which seemingly bring out the best in him.
Can ignore hurdle and All-Weather form; he looks potentially well-handicapped off 70 in the right conditions.
Fell out of the gate. Overcame his highly awkward start quickly, as moved forward rapidly to lead after the first furlong even. Did way too much to get there but only fell away from from over a furlong out.
Strong run in circumstances and clearly better than result. Won when last seen in 2022. Full-brother to Group 3 winning miler. Should have no issues going up in trip.
Opening mark no giveaway, but could have a couple of pounds ahead if he moves up to 6 furlongs.
Grabbed the lead, although closely followed all the time. Keen in the first half of the race. Under severe pressure entering the home straight. Gutsy, still fought back when beaten over 1f out.
Clearly in good form. Ran well last two times as well. If ground stays soft drop to 7f possibly ideal. Chester entry on Wednesday interesting.
Closely enough rated to more recent best speed ratings, but any help from handicapper will see her having something in hand in the right race.
First bumped, then squeezed out soon after the start. Stumbled after the first furlong. Got going again but ultimately never stood a chance. Better than this as he caught the eye at Lingfield before as well when turning very wide but finished well enough.
Not much scope but chance off 47, especially on turf, 5f on decent ground. Some strong performances last year, especially when out of the handicap off 51 at Ffos Las.
Ran twice to 48 speed rating, latest in January. Looks like he’s in the same sort of form as his best from 2022, hence should have a few pounds ahead now.
Bounced out of the gate from wide draw to grab the lead and set strong gallop. Started to tire from 3 furlongs out, though ran solid to the line.
Not disgraced the last two. Veteran who still enjoys the game. Simply not the old force any more and will benefit from further drop in the ratings and down into class 6.
Led, although closely tracked. Still ahead at the final furlong marker, but heavily under pressure. Only faded from half a furlong out. Probably solid form, winner possibly still ahead of his mark.
Comes down to good mark. Ran well on the All-Weather (unlucky 03/03) against good opposition. Will benefit from drop to class 6 again and could be dangerous now, over 6-7f.
Possibly a bit better on the sand, but intriguing on turf off 63 if the ground decent, especially over 6 furlongs.
Overcame widest draw quickly to dispute lead all the way while travelling wide, giving ground away. Hit the front just about with 1.5f to go before getting swallowed for good by two ridden with more restraint. Saddle slipped late, too.
Lightly raced. May enjoy better ground. Good run and interesting off current mark over 6f on decent ground, probably does also enjoy galloping track more than tight ones.
Seriously keen throughout the race, but strongly travelling into the home straight. Tremendous visual impression when let go as he moved forward stylishly from 2.5f out to hit the front in an instant. Markedly tired from over 1f out and caught late.
Often keen over 6f. Ran well number of times before. Achieved 62 speed rating here, hence likely to be ahead of mark, and should be if not too harshly treated by the handicapper after this. Has 5f entries next week. Intriguing over the minimum trip.
Awkward start. In rear, going okay until outpaced from 2f out. Kept going strongly to the line and finished best of all. Ran to strong 61 speed rating, 3lb below current mark.
Fast conditions over the minimum trip not ideal. Notably how well he ran. Clearly ready in right conditions. Prefers cut in the ground and stays 6f.
Ran to 68 speed rating at Dundalk in January. Changed yards. Tricky customer. Worth to wait for the right conditions. Perhaps ran too good to be dropped another pound our two here, though.
Led his group on the far side. Good pace. Ran strongly to the line but beaten by one from off the pace. Strong form through winner and 2nd.
Better over 6f and pretty ground independent, though may not want the extreme end of either side of the going stick. Ran good speed ratings within last twelve month and this a clear return to form.
At disadvantage from the #8 gate. Caught wide and without cover early on, before settling at the back of the field. Good progress on outside from halfway stage. Nearly upside leaders over 1f out, before getting tired.
Comeback run and handicap debut. Huge performance against pace and track bias. Showed good early speed last year. May stay 7f on pedigree but 6f possibly ideal.
Was a cheap yearling but looks clearly better than opening 70 mark.
Had the widest draw to overcome. Huge disadvantage. Raced widest without cover. Good progress from over 2f out, just tired late.
Strong run on seasonal reappearance. Ran to 66 speed rating. Clearly as good as ever. Won off 70 multiple times in the past. Ran to 70 speed rating twice last year.
Loves it at Salisbury. Interesting next time out but in an ideal world he finds a way to drop a couple of pounds to become seriously well-handicapped.
Awkward start, travelled strongly against the inside rail at the end of the field. Good progress but full effort delayed until he got out late to finish strongly.
Ran 70 speed rating equal to current mark. Caught the eye on the All-Weather before. Seems to be still improving and capable of winning, especially if not harshly assessed for this run by the handicapper.
Most likely prefers a bit of give in the ground, certainly no fast ground. Can be a bit tricky out of the gate but usually a strong traveller.
Raced about 5 lengths off the pace, quite keen, took a grip. Overraced especially around the home bend and huge move from 4f out to go upside with leaders. Fell away in the closing stages.
Still a maiden and not one to trust too much, didn’t run a good speed rating yet. However this is probably solid form and a drop to 6f will be interesting off revised career-lowest mark.
Travelled off the pace, outpaced halfway through, before good progress. held up behind leaders from 2f out, looked bit awkward, possibly hung. Ran on strongly.
Caught the eye lto over the minimum trip at Newcastle as well. Clearly in strong form but a difficult sort. A step up to 1m interesting. Maybe one tough to catch given it’s Goldie.
Made the most of the standing start. Led, set strong pace, had the field on the stretch from 3 furlongs out and ran home better than most, bar a strong winner. Strong 92 speed rating.
Clearly up to win and confirmed level of form shown last year. If untouched by the handicapper interesting in similar race, especially in a smaller field.
Tracked an honest pace, always going well. Not a clear run from 3f out when horses led across him and hindered him to move out for his effort. Accelerated well once in the clear, especially after he was close to the pace all the time, before getting tired and not given a hard time in the final furlong.
Won well lto. Looks progressive and could still be handicapped to win off 77, after running to 73 speed rating here in not ideal circumstances.
Tracked the pace early on, pretty keen through the race. Not a clear run in the home straight and had to delay full effort multiple times, also hung. Finished nicely under and easy ride in the final furlong.
Comeback run and gelded during his break. First try over a mile. Should get the trip easily if he can settle better. A drop to 7f shouldn’t be an issue, either. Should be competitive off a revised mark.
Right up with the pace, never far off, always racing in prominent position. Was going notably well 2f out, found plenty for pressure and only went down behind two well handicapped horses.
Strong form. Clearly in good nick. Ran career best speed rating on All-Weather earlier this year, although much better on turf.
Ran 74+ speed ratings twice, including a career-best 79 last summer. Handicapped to win off 72 as left untouched by handicapper.
Prominent on the far side, travelled strongly, possibly going best. Got up late for 2nd place on his side, but no chance with winner on stands’ side, who was probably advantaged by racing on that side.
Up 2lb, more than fair. Ran to 70 speed rating here and 81 on AW last year. This form should be strong, every chance can progress and win next time. If not for racing from a wide draw lto at Dundalk her record could read even better.
One third of 2023 is over. It went fast. Thankfully, after a rough start, with losing months in January and February, March and April got me back on track.
April finished with another winner last Thursday – I watched Pillar Of Hope on my small mobile screen while boarding for a plane to Germany to stay on strongly to win his Beverly race. He got home in the nick of time, literally.
He made it winner #7 for April. 235 points profit, from 23 selections in April. Only last November was a more profitable month in the last three years.
Annual P/L makes it 300pts up for the year now from 101 selections.
Far From A Ruby has been nicely progressing with each run since her return in early February where she entered the list of eyecatchers.
That day over 6 furlongs, a trip too sharp, she showed good early speed and enthusiasm, which was exactly what I hoped to see. She followed up with another solid run subsequently, although still seemingly short of full fitness.
She’s approaching peak soon as evident three weeks ago at Southwell when she tracked the pace and was right there until fading back to 4th place, 2 lengths beaten.
She now appears to be seriously well-handicapped in this type of low-level apprentice handicap as she goes up in trip. Turf and fast ground won’t be an issue.
Though, down to a mark of 54 offers a huge opportunity. She ran to a 58 speed rating at Ayr over 7 furlongs back in September. She ran to a 50 speed rating when last seen, when not fully tuned up.
I have full faith that she’s still as good as last autumn, and won’t have an issue making up the pounds needed to reach the same level of performance. She stays a mile, has a 3-1-2 record over this course and distance and hasn’t much to fear in this poor field.
10pts win – Far From A Ruby @ 3/1
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5.00 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 1m
Plenty of unexposed horses and you never quite know what you get. However, I’m quite hopeful Totnes can be better than her current 71 rating now that she moves up in trip.
Last time out, given she was an odds-on shot, she was probably disappointing the way she finished in 5th, especially as she travelled very strongly in rear of the field, made good progress from 3f out and loomed large entering the home straight.
Her challenge petered out from over 1f out as she hang badly to her left, which is a concern, as well as that she can be keen in the early stages.
I’m prepared to excuse the run because she was ultra-impressive weeks earlier over the same C&D, winning in the manner of a talented filly on only her second career run. Something must have bothered her a few weeks ago – whatever it was, I hope it’s fixed now.
Her pedigree points to stamina and a good chance that there’s more improvement to come as she moved beyond 7 furlongs. Ideally i would love to see her at a stiffer track, but the fact she travelles well and could have a class edge against this opposition makes me cautiously confident.
I don’t think many of her rivals have a lot of scope, while she offers plenty of upside. Totnes looks like a filly capable to progress beyond marks in the 70s.
10pts win – Totnes @ 5/2
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8.15 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 1m
Compere looks to have found a nice chance to score. Even though 13 go to post, not many seem to be here to win. Hence I’m not worried about the #6 draw at all, which is good enough to get easily to the front in a race with not much pace to compete against.
The gelding is still pretty lightly raced but took his form to the next level when last seen over this course and distance at Chelmsford over a mile.
He endured an awkward start, heavily bumped a rival before then finding himself in front, overcoming the issues out of the gate, eventually settled in third.
He kicked on nicely against inside rail approaching the home straight; hit the front 1f out, and kept going strongly. But he had no chance with winner from off the pace, eventually.
This is strong form. The winner was back-to-back winner; the third won last time out and finished third subsequently. The 4th won next time out.
Compere was a 50/1 shot, so clearly outran his price tag there. He now drops in class, down to 0-55, and the fact that solid but ultimately exposed Thomas Equinas heads the betting says all about the strengths in depth of this field.
The handicapper was kind to Compere, as he left him on the same 56 rating. Even though. I imagine the gelding will eventually prove better over 10 furlongs, he’s shown enough speed for the mile and should find this easier, in order to run out a strong maiden victory.
This is a really poor contest despite the fact that I have three eyecatchers running in it. Far From A Ruby is one but I want to see her back on the All-Weather. Her presence is positive from a pace scenario though, as she will go forward and that should ensure a solid gallop.
Others are expected to press her or certainly want to be in prominent positions. This proves ideal on fast ground at Ayr lately, there’s no doubt about that. In that context I struggle to see the attractiveness of Biplane who is the recipient of a bit of money this morning.
I have this between the three-year-olds, Audit and Thunderhill. The former caught the eye when a slightly unlucky 3rd at Catterick when dropped to 7 furlongs. A repeat effort with a clear run will see him go really close off the same mark.
My feeling is that Thunderhill, albeit higher in the mark, offers more scope for additional improvement and that could mean he has possibly a few pounds in hand on only his second handicap run.
He came to my attention on his final maiden race in May in deep conditions at Carlisle when he travelled sweetly through the race for a long time.
On handicap debut four week ago at Redcar he was seriously keen early on and not the easiest to steer. He finished well with the main bunch nonetheless. Probably not the best form, but no recent form in this field is better and he will have learned from it.
Thee faster pace today and the fact he doesn’t need to make it but can track it should be a huge help to his chances. He probably stays further too, so if they go really hard it will be a bonus.
He’s related to some decent winners too, though possibly will turn out to be a miler and is one to keep an eye on regardless what happens today.
Sophiesticate was possibly a little bit disappointing seven days ago over course and distance when attempting to step up to 10 furlongs for the first time. Her 5th place finish reads a whole lot better when accounting for the circumstances encountered that day.
She was restrained early on even though it’s quite difficult to make up ground from off the pace at Ayr on fastish ground, certainly how the track is riding more recently.
Yet she made quite eyecatching progress on the inside from three furlongs out, especially when dropping the fastest furlong split of the entire race from two to the final furlong marker. She didn’t get a clear run at a crucial stage, though, had to delay and switch as the race was gone by then.
In my eyes she clearly confirmed the promise shown in her recent Hamilton runs over shorter. The third place finish behind Shaladar last month was particularly noteworthy.
Even though Sophiesticate remains a maiden after eight career runs she gives the impression that she can be better than her current mark of 60. It’s only going to be her second attempt over ten furlongs and on pedigree she looks suited by the trip. I also take confidence from how she saw out some of her races in the past.
She has got a low weight here and I’d be surprised if she doesn’t run well. However, drawn in eight, with other fancied horses likely to get first run, it’s a clear risk that she comes too late with her challenge. I am prepared to give her the opportunity because I hope connections may have learned from last week, I continue to be drawn to her profile and think this is a winnable race.
I am also quite confident that she is well able to reverse form with Belle Of Annandale and Flying Moon if she gets a fair shot at it. And if that’s the case she’s likely the winner of the race.
10pts win – Sophiesticate @ 9.5
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3.55 Ffos Las: Classified Stakes, 7.5f
This is such a poor race that I totally could see Mellencamp romp home to victory here…. if he’s in the right frame of mind. He looks a tricky customer but offers much more upside than the rest in this field.
He’s lightly raced and was clearly not a happy horse at Brighton the last month on his seasonal reappearance. Keen and never really travelling, I felt he wasn’t comfortable at the unique track that Brighton surely is. A more conventional, flat, galloping track, like Ffos Las, should see him travel much better.
We saw at Kempton in his final start and handicap debut as a juvenile what he potentially can do. He got behind, trailed the field, but made significant progress late and came home the strongest in third place. The form doesn’t look too shabby, certainly compared to the what the majority of horses can bring to the table here.
Mellencamp is better than a lowly 49 rated horse I am pretty certain. Whether he can bring the talent to the track remains to be seen. This yard isn’t well known for winners, whether he truly stays the trip is a question mark and he can make a mess of the start.
There are risks but there is high reward too. I am certainly hopefully he’s the best horse in the race.
Alpine Express finished really nicely against older, so returning against his own agree group gives him an obvious chance over his possible optimum trip. Nonetheless, he’s got to give 2.5kg to the filly Distinction, who looks quite forward and talented.
She ran a bit into trouble in her first couple of starts but showed some nice change of gear, especially on her second career outing. She won at the third time of asking over 1200m and the last time was an excellent runner-up in Listed company.
Those two times she showed lovely early speed – even after braking awkwardly the last time – travelled strongly, kicked on and got a break on the field. She was just caught late by smart Who Do You Love the last time. The forms out quite well already. The third Bonika went on to win a Listed race subsequently.
Top man Richard Fourie jumps on board today. The ease in the ground should suit. Distinction ran really well on softish ground on her second start. It might slow things a little bit down as well. She has the speed for the minimum trip but is probably better over the added trip.
10pts win – Distinction @ 5/2
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3.00 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Communion improved significantly on his handicap debut last month compared to what he showed in qualifying runs. He was stuck on the inside though for the entire run with nowhere to go. Very late he finds some space but the bird has long flown.
That form is probably not a bad one, already starts to work out well and should work out even better in the future.
Off a 50 mark I reckon he’s got a bit more to offer on his second run in handicap company over this 6 furlongs trip. He looked green, raw and with plenty to learn in all four career starts so far, but with some experience under his belt I hope for improvement.
This is a pretty poor race, begging for an improving sort to grab the bull by the horn. Communion can be the type of horse to have enough in hand.
10pts win – Communion @ 13/2
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5.15 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f
Sophiesticate has been crying for a step up in trip lately. She caught the eye when finishing strongly in third place on her penultimate outing at Hamilton.
That day she was locked in against the outside rail while going strongly, having to delay and delay, eventually switching to the outside over one furlong from home and then staying on.
She wasn’t suited to a small field and sprint finish the next time. Clearly going up to 10 furlongs can only be a positive. Visually she appears to be badly in need of the trip. On pedigree she looks totally fine too.
10pts win – Sophiesticate @ 6/1
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7.15 Ripon: Class 5 Handicap, 1m
Sydney Bay was such a huge eye-catcher last time out (same race as Communion), I believe he could have 10lb+ in hand going up in trip. A mile will surely suit this son of Australia. The fact he made such a huge impression over 6 furlongs on handicap debut is quite promising too.
That day he dropped to the rear of the field halfway through the race, travelling like an absolute dream, though behind a wall of horse. Given a bit of rain, and finally some space, he took it an instant, although it was way too late to trouble the leaders.
I don’t think going up in class will cause any issue. He’s at least a mid-70s horse. Off 63, as bottom weight only bad luck can prevent him from winning.
10pts win – Sydney Bay @ 7/2
…….
Note: possibly addition Race 1 Kenilworth – Distinction. No prices available yet. Will update tomorrow morning if >2/1.
My selections didn’t ran badly, especially 30/1 shot Airways Law produced a huge performance from the back off the field finishing 6th against a slow pace.
But nobody in the race stood a chance against super filly Sparkling Water. Largely, that must be said, because all other jockeys were outridden by brilliant S’manga Khumalo, who maximised the chance of his mount by doing absolutely everything right.
Obviously he’s got a bit of history in the race. Khumalo is a legitimate word-class jockey. He must have studied the pace scenario really well and had a match plan that was executed to perfection. A slow pace was always likely to happen and that would significantly hamper the chances of those at the back of the field.
Sparkling Water was drawn in #12. Not ideal but not a big problem either. Khumalo pushed the filly out of the gates and crossed over towards the inside rail in an instant. The race was only a few seconds old but the winning move was already done.
From there on Sparkling Water travelled smoothly, always handy, with a clear passage, and Khumalo, knowing the filly stays all day and night, committed as soon as they reached the home straight. Two furlongs from home he called on everything and the filly responded. Once she hit the front she wasn’t for catching. It was beautiful to watch.
The master that is Mike De Kock was sweet on Sparkling Water’s chances all week. He told everyone who dared to ask. Quite how she could go off 16/1 is a mystery. She was more than half the price only a few days earlier.
I didn’t spot this large drift either. But I also didn’t rate her chances. In my mind she was a stayer. Too slow in this field of top-class 10 furlong horses in a race that was sure to be run at a pedestrian pace. I didn’t account for the magic S’manga Khumalo produced in the saddle on the day.
Safe Passage didn’t have the best of trips. He’s better than that but also tired late and probably doesn’t want to go beyond 10 furlongs ideally. Jet Dark ran a massive race in 2nd. Ridden like a non-stayer, he saw it out strong from off the pace.
Two-times champion Do It Again ran his usual strong race. Last years winner Kommetdieding also finished with plenty of credit in 5th place off a big weight. Under WFA terms, wherever he goes next, he’ll be once again the horse to beat.
Linebacker encountered a miserable trip. Heavily bumped early on, he got hampered turning for home again. Pomp And Power was backed into favouritism, pulled his chances away as expected.
In summary: I didn’t back the winner but hugely enjoyed the build-up to the July and it was an entertaining race as well. The Durban July is one of my favourite races of the entire year. it proved it all again in 2022.
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4.37 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f
This looks like a matchup between Lituus and and Acoustic on paper. The Grant Tuer horse may improve for the trip after an encouraging recent effort, but doesn’t appear generously handicapped on balance.
Acoustic in contract off 49 may well be. He’s yet to run particularly fast, a best topspeed of 46 is nothing to shout about. But he looks sure to improve for the additional furlong, having nearly gotten back to the eventual winner over the slightly shorter 9 furlongs at Hamilton the last time.
He was right up with the pace from the start, came under pressure from over three furlongs out, but kept going. Headed 1.5 furlongs from home, you would have expected him to fade away, but instead he rallied back strongly in the final furlong.
Acoustic clearly has every chance to stay 10 furlongs anyway, given he is out of a Singspiel mare. He also appears to be in fine shape, having been an eyecatcher two back at Weatherby when completely messing up at the start in first time blinkers.
10pts win – Acoustic @ 5/1
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5.12 Ayr: Classified Stakes, 1m
I like both Bankawi and Hello Power. Both caught my eye the last times, although Hello Power on more occasions. The WFA weight swing tips the balance to the filly, who has drifted a bit to a price that’s too big now.
The three-year-old is still quite unexposed on turf but show clear signs of acting on the surface when impressing in the middle section of her recent Doncaster run. She faded into third but only because she was asked way too much too early.
This significant change of gear she showed there hints a bit of talent, though, at least on this modest level. I quite liked her gutsy Southwell victory earlier in the year and thought she was a bit unlucky not finish closer last time out at Wolverhampton.
The fact she got going again after hampered over 1 furlong out proves her nice attitude.
The question mark is whether she can stretch out over a mile. Her pedigree gives her a chance. The way she finishes her races too. I doubt there’ll be a mad pace on, which will help. Although I hope they won’t drop her in and race settle in midfield not too far off the pace.
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