Tag Archives: Ayr

Monday Selections: Urban Moon Can Bounce Back

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4.30 Ayr: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f

In my eyes this looks wide open. While I understand why First Sitting is fancied, I fail to understand why he is such a short price. A dozen others in this field have to enter calculations too and he is simply on of the better chances in this race.

Most appeal on the given prices makes Urban Moon, who looks way overpriced here after slipping down to a very attractive mark. He won a hot Curragh Handicap last year and proved to have trained on when 1½ lengths beaten earlier this year at the same venue in a big Handicap of a mark off 93.

Two subsequent runs in the UK have yielded in two poor showings, but he has fallen down to a mark off 82 now! With the softish ground to suit, and the drop back to 10f not inconvenient, he must rate a prime chance in this field off this mark, if he can find back his form.

That is obviously the main question: What has been the reason for these last two performances? Given the race and price he is, I feel it’s a worthy risk to have a nibble on him.

Urban Moon @ 14/1 William Hill – 5pts Win 

Saturday Selections: Michael’s Missile can score

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7.10 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Very hard to oppose Michael’s Missile who has found an excellent opportunity to score. He won here over course and distance last month, a form that works out extremely well, and he wasn’t disgraced subsequently in a big Handicap at Naas where he had not the best of starts and made a bit too much too early.

Back in the UK, he’s not here for a good day out, but to win. This field is poor and uncompetitive – he has every chance to win of his revised mark.

Michael’s Missile @ 2/1 Sportingbet – 10pts Win

Exciting Memorial Day can get off the mark tonight

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5.25 Ayr: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Favourite Subserive has good form to his name but has gone up in the mark without winning. Career best is required today. Same goes for experienced Vallarta who has a poor winning record and would need to find some sudden improvement.

Most interesting is the Fahey runner Luis Vaz De Torres. Only his third start, he showed promise when winning a Wolverhampton maiden first time out last winter. Five furlongs at Chelmsford was subsequently not the right test but he finished with credit in third behind a smart winner.

Back after a break now, with strong stable form one would hope he is ready to go off a fair mark. He has been gelded since his last run and that as well as natural progression should help to squeeze out enough improvement to go close.

Luis Vaz De Torres @ 7/2 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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8.15 Haydock: Maiden Stakes, 1m

Memorial Day comes off a break but should be fit to run a big race. He has been gelded since his promising debut run half a year ago. He looked pretty green and raw that day, didn’t get a clear run and finished strongly in third. He seems a big, scopey individual though,and with the step up to 1m surely to suit, this well bred gelding is a big player.

Memorial Day @ 3/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

Preview – Scottish Grand National

Becher's Brook

The National Hunt season is drawing to a close but before it’s all over and part of history it gonna end with a bing bang – the Scottish Grand National! 30 horses taking on the demanding 4 1/2 mile course at Ayr today – so let’s try to find the winner!

I managed to cut down the field to around 14 horses – that shows really how competitive this race is! You could make a reasonable case for so many. I can’t back them all unfortunately, but as always it’s all about the price and value for me, and that is how I came up with the following three selections.

Wiesentraum – @ 100/1 San James

The huge price doesn’t scare me off. Wiesentraum can have a chance here. The trip is an unknown, but he won a couple of times over 3m+ before, so this test may well be within his range. The good ground should be key to his chance as he needs a sound surface to be seen to best effect.

He won twice this season over 3 1/2m on good ground. Back off a break in March, he ran over much shorter. No chance that day but the race should have blown away the cobwebs. With conditions to suit, he may be able to outrun his big price tag off a fair mark.

Amigo – @ 33/1 Bet365

This French gelding hasn’t too many miles on the clock yet and was rather progressive over the last couple of seasons. A good chaser in his native country, he was a fair hurdler in his first season for David Pipe but has surpassed his hurdle mark already as a chaser this season.

Arguably his best performance to date came last month at Newbury when he was a close runner-up to Carruthers. He looks a stayer through and through, won at Ayr before and could still be on the upward. Ground conditions are perfect for him either.

Carli King – @ 40/1 Stan James

Another one who has not too many races under his belt. He won well in Handicap company at Warwick last month and he should relish the ground conditions today as well. He proved his stamina over 3.5 miles already, so it is fair to assume that he gets the trip. Up in the mark for his recent success, there is chance for a bit of further improvement.

All selections: 2.5pts win bets

Jack Steel can be a winner for Tom Scu at Ayr

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I think it’s worth to take the favourite on here. Not sure if the drop in trip is what he wants and his recent fall isn’t exactly inspiring. I do like the look of Jack Steel though. He arrives here on his Handicap debut with a pretty low opening mark and might be able to exploit it.

He shaped okay in his last couple of starts under rules without doing anything particularly impressive. But he is a former point winner in Ireland and has done there his best on better ground. All recent starts came with considerable cut in the ground, which means the conditions at Ayr should suit him perfectly.

Of course he needs to improve from what he has shown so far but with this low opening mark there is a fair chance that he can make his experience count today. It might be telling in itself that Tom Scudamore comes here for this one ride only. The yard isn’t going well but this jockey booking instils some confidence that a big run is expected. 6/1 could be a big price.

2.00 Ayr: Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)
Jack Steel @ 6/1 Coral – 5pts win